II
NGO MBC
II 415 415 415 131
17 2 3 17 132
17 17 2000 133
1957 17 1 London School of Economics NGO 134
MBC 4 60 70 20 10 17 135
II 17 3 3 1 63% 1988 13 56% 2000 16 41% critical electionkey 1955 136
17 2002 17 17 2 137
1997 17 1 50 5% 17 2002 2002 17 2 2004 3 6 539% 243% 124% 69% 263% 509% 138
176% 36% 17 1 2 17 3 75% 139
20 30 80% 50 578% 40 433% 140
3 2002 20031011 50 2030 2002 3 3 141
17 17 61 2 5 71% 4 10 4 2002 20031 2002 142
4 143
4 4 20033 144
4 2003 11 145
5 4 17 31 17 0 6 29 30 5 146
3 3 17 147
1 3 1 17 2002 2003327 3 12 17 1 270% 1 17 2004415 17 34 148
1988 4 1992 3 1996 2000 1987 131992 1997 2002 3 1990 3 3 3 3 2003 57 3 3 2002 2002 Rabonowitz and Macdonald1989 directional model 3 2002 149
200310 2004 1 505% 20 585%30 637% 2004419 2002 2 17 3 1 4 3 150
2 121 151
Downs1957 1 103% 36% 2004419 152
50 4 1 4 45 140 24% 76% 2004416 153
2 2002 17 3 2002 17 2002 154
17 17 155
2003 Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York Harper and Low. Key, Jr. V. O. 1955. A Theory of Critical Realignment. Journal of Politics vol. 17, pp. 3-18. Rabinowitz, George and Stuart Macdonald. 1989. A Directional Theory of Voting. American Political Science Review 83, pp. 93-121. 156
MBC 78 18% 1 11 3 23 157
158
DJ 40008000 17 159
160
161
5 NGO NGO NGO NGO NGO 162
DJ 163
DJ DJ 10% 164
1993 160 2 165
16 17 17 17 3 4 50% 200 200 2% 166
1 16 60% 16 40% 16 167
16 16 16 1 1 17 4 168
2530% 30% 2530% 169
170
2 171
1 17 17 UCLA 172
15 67 173
II 17 17 Populism 17 17 17 174
17 17 17 17 50 175
15 1 17 1 2004 1963 1996 2004 1963 419 1996 1996 2000 2004 176
17 1 2 1 1317 1 2 1 17 16 1 1 177
17 17 17 10 17 Caramani2004 178
100% 14 15 16 17 100% 100% 100% 99% 16 100%15 1 14 15 1 95% 91% 16 17 1 100% 90% 17 90% 1 14 1 15 1 19 75% party identity 179
1963 419 2004 2 084 60 1987 087 15 087 180
60 2 19671971 0920871967 0950911971 181
17 17 17 Constitutionalism 182
20 Progressivism Walter Dean Burnham1981 183
Schattschneider1940 In defense of party Party Government 1 19 184
185
186
17 17 10 30 187
20 Schattscheinder Caramani, Daniele. 2004. The Nationalization of PoliticsThe Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Western Europe (Cambridge). Schattscheinder, E. E. 1940. Party Government (New York).. 1960. The Semisovereign PeopleA Realist View of Democracy in America (Wadsworth) 188
35 5 TK 189
18 70% 23 % 80% 190
17 191
PK 192
450 1 23 21 5 193
194
NSC 2 4 195
50 196
5 1 DJJP 197
3 240 243 243 1 2 3 5% 3 4 67% 1 243 3 038 036 198
199
1 1 200
2 2000 7 5 2 17 201
10% 20% 20% 40% 202
203
1 7 5 204
5 205
17 206
10 7 207
200 TV 5149 1 2 20 3835 12% 10% 12 208
209
20 64 30 40 4555 210
1 211
CEO 130 212
PK 150 213
2 130 214
215
510 216
87 87 87 87 8792 972002 3 3 3 3 3 415 415 1 1961 217
1 40 415 4 15 218
415 2 16 1 219
112 2006 12 20% 2007 500 100 1 2 500300 415 220
3 30% 2002 2004 last but not least 17 221
30% 222
4 30 50 4 10 9 223
224
415 75 3 1910 13% 225
13% 1% CIO 70% 70% 40% 560 226
10 100 5 6 89 89 100 5 227
2002 2003 1 KBS1 9 7 9 60 1 60 4 15 7 7 5 3 20 228
229
3 230
231
1 500 232
KBS MBC SBS MBC KBS 9 233
234
235