IDP 정책연구 2011-13 www.idp.or.kr IDP 정책연구 2011-13 한국경제의 구조적 문제와 개혁방향 The Institute for Democracy and Policies 서울시 영등포구 영등포동 6가 133번지 민주정책연구원 Tel : 02.2630.0114 Fax : 02.2630.0194 민주정책연구원 민주정책연구원 IDP 정책연구 한국경제의 구조적 문제와 개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies
IDP 2011-13 www idp or kr IDP 정책연구 한국경제의구조적문제와개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies
( ) ( ) 2012 (1) 2008 (2) (3) (4) 2012 4 30 1988~1996 ( ) 1988~1996 6
1990 1988~1996 1990 2000 1996 2000 2008 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
5 5 3 10 (1998~2007) ( ) (2) (3) (4) (5) FTA 1 3 3 (1) ( ) (2) (3) (1)
www idp or kr Contents 2012 1 1988~1996 3 51 53 11 IV 2011 17 1 17 2 21 3 25 4 26 5 32 V 40 1 2010 40 2 41 * 민주정책연구원
2012-2012 2008 - (1) (2) 2012 ( ) - 2008~2010 2012-2012 - 4 30-1 2012 2
1988~1996 2-1 30.0 25.0 20.0 1. 1988~1996 : 1) 8 3% 2001~2010 4 2% 50 (/ ) 1994 ~1996 61% 1989 20% 200 10% 15~25% ( 2-1 ) 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2) 1990 2000 ( 2-2 ) 2011 3 1988~1996 4
2-2 2-3 25.0 0.320 0.300 0.280 20.0 15.0 0.260 10.0 0.240 5.0 0.220 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 * 2 4) 3) 15%~20% 1996 175 2010 800 1/5 ( 2-3 ) 2000 1990 1990 1999~2003 2005~2006 600~1000 2004~2008 2000 5 1988~1996 6
1990 2000 5) ( 2-4 ) 2-4 1988~1996 13 1% 2001~2010 3 8% ( 2-5 ) 1990 2000 2-5 3 25 20 15 10.0 10 8.0 5 6.0 0 4.0-5 2.0-10 0.0-2.0-4.0-15 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009-6.0-8.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 6) 7 1988~1996 8
1980 (1992 ) 2. 1988~1996 : 6 1996 OECD 1997 1996 4% 3. 1988~1996 1987 6 1997 9 1988~1996 10
1987 1988 1990 1988~1996 ( ) 1990 1. ( ) ( ) 1960 ( ) () ( ) 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) 11 12
( ) ( Plutonomics) [ ] 1988~1996 2. 1 : 1980 2008 1980 GDP 1990 (43 ) GDP(21 5000 ) 2006 3 5 1980 42% 2006 27% 7 8 10 4% + + + + 167 477 GDP 48 167 ( ) 477 2008 2000 2006 13 14
3. 2 :, - GDP 2010 5 88 2 5 47 1968 40 GDP 9 5% 2005-2007 1 5 2011 3 3 2000-2000 10% 8% 25% - 2008 2010 2 GDP 4 2% 2 2% ( ) 700% 2000 4. 2007 ( 70% ) ( 3-1 ) 3-1 4,000 100.0 92.4 90.1 91.2 88.4 90.0 3,500 80.3 84.1 79.6 80.0 72.2 72.1 3,000 70.0 64.3 61.7 2,500 2,000 1,500 60.0 50.0 40.0 32.1 33.3 30.3 30.0 25.0 1,000 18.5 19.0 20.3 20.0 13.1 10.9 500 0 10.0 0.0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1990 15 16
2000 IV 2011 ( 4-1 ) 4-1 4,000 3,500 3,000 350 300 250 2,500 200 2,000 150 1,500 1,000 500 0 100 50 0 1994.4 1996.1 1997.2 1998.3 1999.4 2001.1 2002.2 2003.3 2004.4 2006.1 2007.2 2008.3 2009.4 1. 1) 1990 1997 2008 2600 ( 17 2011 18
1997 3 10 2007 7 8 ) 4-2 2001 ( ) 15 10 ( ) 5 ( ) 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1 2008.1 2010.1 1990~1994 1 78-0 4 2 12 1 58 1995~1999 2 9-1 12 2 34 2 84 2000~2004 2 75-1 23 1 52 1 96 2005~2010 2q 6 28-6 22 3 18 2 31 *GDP 2) ( ) 97 () 01 (IT ) 04 ( ) 08 ( ) ( 4-2 ) - 06 1 ~08 1 2 GDP 6% 08 4/4 GDP 20 2% ( 50% ) 2600 19 2011 20
3) 1998 12 2008 G-20 0 37% 1 69% 90 3~ 97 12 98 1~ 08 9 12 08 9 15~ 09 3 09 4 / 794 30 1 139 00 1 371 80 1 188 60 2 30 4 50 22 70 7 00 0 21 0 37 1 69 0 58-7 56 41 40 15 30 * 2011 / *GDP [ ] GDP 1994 2~1997 3 517 6 13 7 21 7 1998 1~2001 4 390 4 3 1 10 5 2003 2~2007 3 3511 6 16 4 43 1 2006 1~2008 3 1222 7 11 2 22 4 2009 2~ 2467 5 34 1 46 1 ( ) / / / 2008 4 2~3 2. ( ) 1) 1997 2008 2) 1997 2008 CD RP ( ) - (BIS ) ( 21 2011 22
) ( 4-3 ) 4-4 4-3 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 25.0 15.0 15.0 35.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 5.0-5.0 0.0-10.0-5.0-15.0 90.1 91.1 92.1 93.1 94.1 95.1 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.1 00.1 01.1 02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1-5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 90.1 91.3 93.1 94.3 96.1 97.3 99.1 00.3 02.1 03.3 05.1 06.3 08.1 3) -10.0 2000 2005 2006 2000 ( ) + () ( 4-4 ) 2000 ( 4-5 ) 23 2011 24
4-5 4-6 0.8500 0.8404 0.8400 0.8363 0.8300 0.8200 0.8100 0.8000 0.8166 0.8156 0.8279 0.8303 0.8158 0.7900 0.7867 0.7849 0.7913 0.7800 0.7700 0.7600 0.7500 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3. ( / ) ( ) (1997 3 2% 2007 15 31 5 ) ( ) GDP ( ) 1991 38% 2010 28 6% GDP 1997 0 83% 2008 2 17% 3 ( 4-6 ) ( ) 4. 1) 5+3 2001-25 2011 26
4-7 GDP 70.0 60.0-50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 2) 0.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2 (2010 52 5% 52 4%) ( 4-7 ) GDP 70 6% 57 9% 58 6% 2008 3) 2002 ( 4-8 ) 27 2011 28
4-8 4-9 25,000.0 0.550 20,000.0 0.500 0.450 15,000.0 0.400 10,000.0 0.350 5,000.0 0.0-5,000.0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.300 0.250 0.200 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ( + ) 4 ( LG SK) 2010 603 50% 2008~2010 16 2% - 2000 2007 30% ( 4-10 ) 4) 2008 50 44 7% 100 51 1% 1980 ( 4-9 ) 29 2011 30
4-10 4 2007 2010 4) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-2007 2010 86 78 64 63 59 59 36 36 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 LG SK 2000 1990 2008 3 2000 2008 5. 1) ( ) ( ) 2000 31 2011 32
2) 43% ( 4-11 ) 87% 1/3 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 4-11 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3) ( ) 2000 10 25 5% 5 7% ( 4-12 ) IT 33 2011 34
4-12 2008 8 30 25 25.5 1980 1990 2000 ( 4-13 ) 4-13 20 17.3 17.6 18.5 17.0 15 10 5 4.4 12.5 5.7 14.3 7.5 12.6 7.4 300.0 250.0 200.0 50.5% 50.1% 50.3% 49.9% 265.9 246.8 249.9 253.2 255.0 238.2 239.3 48.9% 266.1 51.0% 50.0% 49.0% 48.0% 0 150.0 100.0 120.3 119.9 124.3 124.7 123.7 47.2% 120.4 122.9 46.2% 46.9% 124.9 47.0% 46.0% 50.0 45.0% ( /) 1996 62 5 0.0 44.0% (2010 59 2%) 4) 2000 56% ( ) 4 100% 30% - ( ) 35 2011 36
5) ( 4-15 ) 1990 5 10 10% 2000 2008 (2 )( 4-14 ) 4-14 1990 100 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 4-15 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0.300 0.290 0.280 0.270 0.260 0.250 0.240 0.230 0.220 100 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2009 (2 ) 6) ( ) 2010 1 7 71% ( 4-16 ) 37 2011 38
4-16 2010 1 (5) 79 05 20 95 7 71 13 24 * 6. 2000 2008 (1) (2) (3) (4) V 1. 2010, ( ) 2000 2008 ( ) 2000 2008 39 2011 40
5-1 ( ) 2006 30~40 2016 ( ) 2010 3 2. ( ) ( ) 1) - ( 5-1 ) 2) (self-regulation) + (de-regulation) ( ) (re-regulation) ( ) - (capital management technique) - ( ) 41 42
(Speed bumps) - (Currency risk) NDF( ) - (Flight risk) ( / ) - (Fragility risk) (positive ) 3) - - - - - - ( ) - - 4) / ( 10% ) 43 44
- / 2-5) (positive ) / ( / ) - ( WTO ) - GDP 45 46
- (ripple effect) / (Kaitz index) 30% 5-2 2009 2500 2000 1500 ( - - ) ( ) - ( ) 1000 500 0 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands NewZealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Turkey United Kingdom West Germany United States Russian Federation OECD countriess ( ) - -EU FTA ISD - FTA -EU FTA EU - - IT - 47 48
6) - - 1980 10 2004 8000 145% 8000 94% [ ] 8000~1 1~2 2~3 3~5 5~10 10 2004 41 000 17 000 18 000 3 000 3 000 2005 53 037 22 231 22 626 4 020 2 531 1 629 2006 68 591 28 626 29 826 4 991 3 028 1 519 601 2007 89 197 36 655 39 435 6 405 3 665 2 084 953 2008 100 136 40 755 44 080 7 555 4 347 2 463 936 2009 100 391 39 513 45 085 7 804 4 739 2 418 832 7) () () ( ) ( ) ( / ) ( ) - 2008 26 5% 2 OECD 1975(29 4%) 1985(32 5%) - 2005 8% OECD (24 4%) 33% ( ) 18~24% - (2010 19 2%) - 2 22% 2009 500 413 ( 0 1%) 63 1% ( 58 6%) 49 50
1996 1990 2000 2000 2008 < < < 10 ( ) 2010 51 52
Chang Park & Yoo 1998 Interpreting the Korean crisis financial liberalization industrial policy and corporate governance Cambridge Journal of Economics Crotty & Lee 2001 Economic Performance in Post-Crisis Korea A Critical Perspective on Neoliberal Restructuring Crotty & Lee 2002 Is financial liberalization good for developing nations? The case of South Korea in the 1990s Review of Radical Political Economics Crotty & Lee 2008 Was IMF-Imposed Economic Regime Change in Korea Justified? The Political Economy of IMF Intervention Review of Radical Political Economics Epstein Grabel 2003 Capital Management Techniques in developing Countries An Assessment of Experience from the 1990 s and Lessons for the Future Grabel 2004 Trip Wires and Speed Bumps Managing Financial Risks and Reducing the potential for financial crises in developing economies ILO 2011 Global Wage Report 2010/11 Kotz 2007 Contradictions of Economic Growth in the Neoliberal Era Accumulation and Crisis in the Contemporary U S Economy Review of Radical Political Ecnomics Kotz 2010 The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008 A Systemic Crisis of Neoliberal Capitalism Review of Radical Political Economics Onaran & Stcokhammer 2005 Two different Export-Oriented Growth Strategies Accumulation and Distribution in Turkey and South Korea Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Palley 2009 America s Exhausted Paradigm Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession Paniceria 2010 The Financial Crisis of 2007-9 and Emerging Countries The Political Economy Analysis of Central Banks in The Brazilian and Korean Ecnomies Seguino 1999 The investment function revisited discipling capital in South Korea Journal of Post Keynesian Economics UNCTAD 2011 Employment golbalization and development Trade and Development Report 2010 2009 Opening to Capital Flows and Implications from Korea Working Paper No 363 2011 / BOK 53 54
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