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1 Revista Iberoamericana 22.1 (2011): Rhee, Sung-Hyong (2011), Lula s Brazil: a critical assessment. Abstract The article tries to evaluate the legacies of Lula government which were much lauded by national and international media coverage. Brazil under Lula shows well both the darker and the brighter sides of the reform experiences since 1990s in Brazil. First, the growth in export market, due to the Chinese demand, tends to reduce the risks of external crises, and allow for more vigorous expansion of the domestic market. But Brazilian economic performance has not been quite good in the last decade comparing with its historical records. The pace of growth was more moderate with annual growth rate of 4.1%, well below the ones of the more dynamic developing economies. Second, the pillars of the macroeconomic policy have been the use the of exchange rate as an anti-inflation instrument, and the maintenance of primary surplus, which was continued since the Cardoso administration. Higher rate of interest combined with a relatively unregulated capital account, has led to significant capital inflows and a long term tendency to exchange rate appreciation, which would also leads to the Dutch disease. Third, the moderate improvement in income distribution and the appearance of the so-called new middle class was quoted by the Lula government as one of the main accomplishments. It is clear that the wages of the lower income strata, in particular, the minimum wage increased at a faster pace. But the average real remuneration of workers has not improved significantly. The notion of a new middle-class has been tied more to the enlargement of social programs, and the expansion of consumer credit. The Dilma administration tries to expand the more progressive programs of Lula s second term(pac-2), and allow the economy to grow at a faster pace, promoting a more significant redistribution of income. But the structural constraints ingrained by the Cardoso and Lula administrations tend to lead her * 2008 ( ) (NRF B00015).

2 government to a more moderate and cautious agenda. Key words Lula, BRICs, peripheral liberalism, coalitional presidentialism, new middle class, Dutch disease ( ). (PT),, 87%., (12 16 ).,,,.,. 8,. (Sader e Garcia(eds.) 2010; Rands 2010) 8, (Szklarz 2010; Bresser-Pereira 2010). (Sallum 2009; Petra y Veltmeyer 2009). - (Filgueiras, Pinheiro, Philigret, e Balanco 2010).

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25 Revista Iberoamericana 22.1 Bruno 2010)., ,, ( VI-4).,. 2,. -2(PAC-2). ( ) (%) (%) , : BNDES/GT do Investimento * , GDP 10%, (FBKF) 52%, 60%, 90%.

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31 ..,... (2009), : 20,. ( )(2010), :,,,. (2010), :,, -,., (2009),, :,, 2009:,. Almeida Magalhães et al.(2010), Os anos Lula: Contribuçoes para um balanço crítico , São Paulo: Garamond. Almeida Magalhães, João Paulo de(2010), Estrateégias e modelos de desenvolvimento, em Almeida Magalhãe et al.(2010). Arias, Juan(2010a), Lula, He sentido del dedo de Dios sobre mi, El País, 29 de diciembre. Arias, Juan(2010b), Brasil es mayor que Lula, El País, 11 de noviembre. Arias, Juan(2010c), A rey muerto, rey puesto, dice Lula, El País, 4 de noviembre. Arias, Juan(2011), En que se diferencian Dilma y Lula, El País, 3 de enero. Beck, Tracy(2009), Avoiding Governors: the Success of Bolsa Familia, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 44, No. 1. Blanca, Antoine(2010), Brésil, Les enjeux de elections du 3 octrobe, 2010, Jean Jaures Fondation, Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos(2010), Novo desenvolvimentismo: uma proposta para a economia do Brasil, Nueva Sociedad em portugues, Buenos Aires: Nueva Sociedad. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos(2011), Deus foi brasileiro no governo Lula, Folha Revista Iberoamericana

32 de São Paulo, 1 de febrero. Bruno, Miguel(2010), Envidamento do Estado e sector financeiro no Brasil: Interdependencias macroeconomicas e limites estruturais ao desenvolvimento, Almeida Magalhães et al.(2010). Castañeda, Jorge(2010), L héritage de Lula, Les Echos, 21 de septembre, Delcourt, Laurent(2010), Le Brésil de Lula: une dynamique de contradictions, Centre Tricontinental(CETRI), 18 de mars, php?article Diniz, Eli(2010), Democracy, State and Industry: Continuity and Change between the Cardoso and Lula Administration, Latin American Perspective, Vol. 20, No. 10. Dumas, Antony(2010), Le carnet de notes de Lula: Bien, mais aurait pu mieux faire..., Rue89, Ferraz, Juan Carlos, Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza y David Kupfer(2010), Trayectorias para el desarrollo brasileño, Boletín Informativo Techint, septiembre-diciembre. Filgueiras, Luiz, Bruno Pinheiro, Celeste Philigret, e Paulo Balanço(2010), Modelo liberal-periférico e bloco de poder: Política e dinamica macroeconomica nos governos Lula, Almeida Magalhães et al.(2010). Gallego-Diaz, Soledad(2010), Una seria administradora a la sombra de Lula, El País, 2 de octubre. Goirand, Camille(2006), L outsider, figure introuvable? Partis et individualisation de la politique au Brésil, Problémes d Amérique latine, No. 59, hiver. Hunter, Wendy(2010), The Transformation of the Workers Party in Brazil, , New York: Cambridge University Press. Labanti, Federico et Nieves Lopez Izquierdo(2010), Le Brésil, puissance agricole ou environnementale? Le Monde diplomatique, 4 de novembre. Lautier, Bruno(2007), Les politique sociales au Brésil durant le gouvernement de Lula: Aumone d Etat ou droits sociaux? Problémes d Amérique latine,

33 No. 63, Levy, Paulo(2010), Les années Lula, Les Echos, 9 de septembre, lesechos.fr/project-syndicate/autres-auteurs/ /les-annees-lula Lopez, Nieves(2010), Le Brésil et les agrocarburants: menaces sur l agriculture, Le Monde diplomatique, 12 de novembre. Mercadante, Aloizio(2006), Brasil, primeiro tempo: Analise comparativa do governo Lula, São Paulo: Planeta. Palermo, Vicente(comp.)(2003), Poliítica brasileña contemporánea: De Collor a Lula en años de transformación, Buenos Aires: Instituto di Tella/Siglo Veintiuno. Rouquié, Alain(2006), Le Brésil au XXIe siecle, Paris: Fayard. Rodrigues, Fernando(2010). Dilma Rousseff: Ilusoes armadas, Folha de São Paulo, 6 de febrero. Power, Timothy(2010), Optimism, Pessimism, and Coalitional Presidentialism: Debating the Institutional Design of Brazilian Democracy, Bulletin of Latin American Research, Vo. 29, No. 1, January. Power, Timothy, Cesar Zucco, Jr.(2009), Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, A Research Communication, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 44, No. 1. Salama, Pierre(2010a), Brésil, bilan economique, succes et limites, Problémes d Amérique latine, No. 78, Automne Salama, Pierre(2010b), Une croissance tirée par le marche interieur comme reponse a la crise en Argentine et au Brésil: une utopie mobilisatrice? par_le_marche_interieur@fr.pdf Santos, Fabiano, Cristiane Batista(2010), Instituciones políticas y políticas puúblicas en la Federacion brasileña, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 45, No. 3. Samuels, David(2006), Brazilian Democracy under Lula and the PT, Paper Revista Iberoamericana

34 presented at the conference on Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America, The Inter-American Dialogue, Washington DC, September Skidmore, Thomas(2010), Brazil: Five Centuries of Change, second edition, New York: Oxford University Press. Szklarz, Eduardo(2010), A asensão do Brasil: os dois lados da realidade, Nueva Sociedad em portugues, Buenos Aires: Nueva Sociedad. Tavares, Laura, Emir Sader, Rafael Gentii, Cesar Benjamin(2004), Governo Lula: decifrando o enigma, São Paulo: Viramundo. Vera Soares, Fabio, Rafael Perez Ribas, Rafael Guerreiro Osorio(2010), Evaluating the Impact of Brazil s Bolsa Familia: Cash Transfer Programs in Comparative Perspective, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 45, No. 2. Vernengo, Matias(2011), The Brazilian Economy after Lula: What to Expect? ZS/ZS-CESifo_Forum/zs-for-2011/zs-for /forum1-11-focus3.pdf Waniez, Philippe, Violette Brustlein, Cesar Romero Jacob, Dora Rodrigues Hees(2007), L Election presidentielle de 2006 au Brésil: Continuité politique, nouvelle géographie electorale, Problémes d Amérique latine, No. 63, Waniez, Philippe, Cesar Romero Jacob, Dora Rodrigues Hees, Violette Brustlein (2010), Au Brésil, continuité politique et stabilité géographique, Le Monde diplomatique, 24 de novembre. Zweig, Stefan(2000), Brazil: A Land of the Future, translated by L. Bangerter, River Side, Ca.: Adriane Press.

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