64 한국과국제정치 Ⅰ. 서론 Bacevich(2017), 2016 (Donald J. Trump) (the age of great expectations) (the great void). (the end of history) (Fukuyama, 1992), ( ).,

Transcription

1 제 33 권제 1 호 2017 년 ( 봄 ) 통권 96 호, pp 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 * 서정건 ** 차태서 ***....,,. 국문요약 본논문은도널드트럼프의대선승리가미국정치체제에미치는함의를살펴보고, 새미국행정부의세계전략을탐구하고자한다. 이를위해탈냉전기미국대전략과의회 / 정당정치의연속성과변화를분석함으로써, 트럼프행정부가기존의자유주의적합의에서이탈하여새로운민족주의적국내외정책을구사할것이란점을밝힌다. 아울러, 본논문은트럼프 의잭슨주의적외교정책이동북아지역과한반도에끼칠영향을예측하고, 결론적으로트럼프당선이자유세계질서의미래에미칠시대적의미에대해논의한다. 주제어 : 도널드트럼프, 미국대전략, 미국의회 / 정당정치, 잭슨주의, 자유세계질서 DOI: /kwp * 2016 ( ) (NRF-2016-S1A3A ) ( ) (NRF-2016-S1A3A ).. **. 저서및논문 Strange Bedfellows and US China Policy in the Era of Polarized Politics, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol, 29, No. 1: (2017). ***. 저서및논문 The Formation of American Exceptional Identities: A Three-tier Model of the Standard of Civilization in US Foreign Policy, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 21, No. 4: (2015).

2 64 한국과국제정치 Ⅰ. 서론 Bacevich(2017), 2016 (Donald J. Trump) (the age of great expectations) (the great void). (the end of history) (Fukuyama, 1992), ( )., (Hillary Clinton)., (Zakaria, 2016).,., /, (Brexit), (Blyth, 2016).. /.,

3 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 65 (Jacksonianism) -., Ⅱ. 미국외교정책기반의지속과변화 1. 미국대전략 2 (American grand strategy) (liberal hegemony) (Posen, 2014).,,, (Brands, 2016; Ikenberry, 2011; Kagan, 2012). ( ),. (Krauthammer, 2002).,,.

4 66 한국과국제정치 (Jervis, 2011).,, (Bill Clinton) (The White House, 1994, 1995) /11 (blowback) (Johnson, 2000),. (axis of evil) (Donnelly, 2013). W. (George W. Bush),. (The White House, 2002), (Wilsonianism). (neocon) (Daalder and Lindsay, 2003) (one-legged Wilsonianism) (Deudney, 2007: 186).,.

5 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 67 (Burbach and Tarbell, 2004) (Barack Obama) 8., (National Security Strategy) (The White House, 2010),, (Cairo Speech),,. (Obama, 2009).,, (, 2010;, 2011;, 2016).,. Ikenberry(2014) (pragmatic internationalism).,,. H. W. (George H. W. Bush), (Brent Scowcroft)., 1 2 UN (Samantha Power)

6 68 한국과국제정치., (Bashar al-assad),. (Goldberg, 2016: 72-73). (burden-sharing) (Goldberg, 2016: 78).,.. (, 2015). (restraint), (retrenchment), (offshore balancing) (Layne, 2016; Mearsheimer and Walt, 2016), (Brands and Feaver, 2016; Brooks and Ikenberry et al., 2013).. 2. 미국외교정책과의회 / 정당정치. 1990

7 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 69 (enlargement) (peace dividend) (nation building)., (Ted Kennedy) ( No Child Left Behind ) (compassionate conservatism) (neoconservatism)... 1) (the Vulcans), (Richard Nixon) (Gerald Ford) (détente), 1) (Donald Rumsfeld), H. W. (Dick Cheney), (Colin Powell), (Paul Wolfowitz), / (Richard Armitage). Mann(2004).

8 70 한국과국제정치 (Ronald Reagan) (peace through strength). 9/ , /11 (war-ofnecessity). 2003,., Fox News (Charles Krauthammer). (Brookings Institution) (Robert Kagan) (The Return of History and the End of Dreams). (muscular Wilsonianism) (Wilsonianism in boots).,. 9/11,. (Karl Rove). 9/11.

9 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 71, Milkis and Rhodes(2007). 2005, (< 1> ). < 표 1> 미국행정부별하원의석수변천과정 (2001~2018 년 ) 행정부 - 하원 ( 연도 ) 민주당공화당 W. 부시 -107 대 (2001~2002) W. 부시 -108 대 (2003~2004) W. 부시 -109 대 (2005~2006) W. 부시 -110 대 (2007~2008) 오바마 -111 대 (2009~2010) 오바마 -112 대 (2011~2012) 오바마 -113 대 (2013~2014) 오바마 -114 대 (2015~2016) 트럼프 -115 대 (2017~2018) 주 : 는다수당표시. 출처 : U.S. House of Representatives(2017) ( Yes, We Can. ). (nation-building at home)., (ObamaCare)

10 72 한국과국제정치,.,, (sequestration),. 2), (Osama Bin Laden), (Rand Paul) (libertarian) (Tea Party) / , 2009, 2011, 2014, ,. 2). (rebalancing), (norm),, FTA(Free Trade Agreement, ), (TPP: Trans-Pacific Partnership),..

11 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 73 ( no boots on the ground ) (security gap). 2011, (national security card) (< 1> ) (ObamaCare), (nation-building at home). (John McCain) Ⅲ. 트럼프시대미국대외정책 1. 잭슨주의전통과트럼프독트린, 2000

12 74 한국과국제정치 (Haines, 2017). (Jacksonianism) 3) (Cha, 2016; Clarke and Ricketts, 2016; Lieven, 2016; Mead, 2017). 7 (Andrew Jackson),,, (chauvinism)., - -, (American creed)., 19.,. 4), (rust belt),. Mead(2001: ),., 3) Mead(1999). 4) (2006) Kazin(2016).

13 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 75 (Hamiltonianism).,.,., (Thomas Hobbes). --,.,,.,,, (paranoiac).,.. 19, 2,.,, (nativism).. 2,, (terrible mess).

14 76 한국과국제정치 (Trump, 2015: 31). (Trump, 2016a).,.,.,.,.,,,. (Trump, 2017).,,.,. (Parker, 2016), (Trump, 2016a).,, (nation-building business) (Trump, 2016a).,, 19 (exemplarism). 6 (John Quincy Adams),..

15 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 77 (Trump, 2016a)., (Pax Americana),. (NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization) (obsolete) (Gove and Diekmann, 2017). 2000, (Applebaum, 2016).. NATO,?. (Sanger and Haberman, 2016). (UN: United Nations), (Begley, 2016).., (Trump, 2016b). (Buy American and Hire American) (Trump, 2017). (WTO: World Trade Organization) (NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement)

16 78 한국과국제정치 (Trump, 2016c). TPP (Hopper and Cuetara, 2016)., (IS: Islamic State).,. ( )IS,. (Cha, 2016: 90). (America First Foreign Policy),., ( ) (The White House, 2017). 2. 행정부 - 의회관계전망 %,,, (Bill Kristol),, (Lindsey Graham), (county) 1/3, -

17 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 79 (Obama-Trump voters) (23 ) (8 ),., (Finance Committee) (Orrin Hatch).. (agenda-setting power),,.,., / (38%) / (31%). 2008,.,. (budget reconciliation), 8. -.,,,., (EPA: Protection Agency)

18 80 한국과국제정치. -. < 2>, 2015 (TPA: Trade Promotion Authority) (79.2%), 50 (20.8%), 47 (90.4%), 5 (9.6%), , % , 8. (rust belt). < 표 2> 2015 년 TPA 표결을둘러싼미국민주 - 공화양당의입장차이 찬성 반대 ( 단위 : %) 민주당하원의원 민주당상원의원 공화당하원의원 공화당상원의원 출처 : U.S. House of Representatives( 저자계산.

19 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 81 Ⅳ. 트럼프, 동북아, 그리고한반도 %,. (Clinton, 2011) (pivot to Asia)., (U.S. Department of Defense, 2012)..., (engagement and enlargement).

20 82 한국과국제정치,, (, 2014: 241) WTO, (Trump, 2016b)., ( ) (Nicholas and Beckett et al., 2017). 5), ( ), (Lieven, 2012: ).., (Chinization) (Rex W. Tillerson) UN (Nikki Haley). ICBM(Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, ), (Americanization). 5) ( ), (Phillips, 2017).

21 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 ~1970 (Lyndon B. Johnson), (Vietnamization). ICBM 2 (secondary boycott),. ICBM, (It won t happen). (twitter). W. 9 9/11,. (partisan politics) (Seo, 2015). (rally-around-the-flag) (North Korean Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act), (Ed Royce). 96-0, 408-2, 2..

22 84 한국과국제정치,,, (executive agreement). (denuclearization), (freeze), (non-proliferation).,.,. Ⅴ. 결론 (dead center) (, 2012; Kupchan and Trubowitz, 2013), ,,.

23 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 85 Eichengreen(2016) (the age of hyper-uncertainty).., (Franklin Roosevelt) 70 (Mead, 2017). 2.., ( ).,. 투고일 : 2017 년 2 월 21 일 심사일 : 2017 년 2 월 26 일 게재확정일 : 2017 년 3 월 26 일 참고문헌. 2010,,, 50 1 : , 3.0,, 92 : ,,

24 86 한국과국제정치, 51 3 : , ( : ) , :,,,, 25 1 : , :,, 24 3 : , : (Dead Center),, 33 2 : Applebaum, Anne. 2016, Is America Still the Leader of the Free World? The Washington Post, November 9, global-opinions/under-president-trump-america-may-no-longer-lead-thefree-world/2016/11/09/921bbbbe-a67b-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story. html?utm_term=.c885c3d23872 (2017/02/06). Bacevich, Andrew J. 2017, The Age of Great Expectations and the Great Void: History After the End of History, Le Monde diplomatique, January 9, mondediplo.com/openpage/the-age-of-great-expectations-and-the-great-void (2017/02/06). Begley, Sarah. 2016, Read Donald Trump s Speech to AIPAC, Time, March 22, time.com/ /donald-trump-aipac-speech-transcript (2017/02/06). Blyth, Mark. 2016, Global Trumpism: Why Trump s Victory Was 30 Years in the Making and Why It Won t Stop Here, Foreign Affairs, November 15, (2017/02/06). Brands, Hal. 2016, Making the Unipolar Moment: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Rise of the Post-Cold War Order (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press). Brands, Hal and Peter D. Feaver. 2016, Should America Retrench?: The Battle Over Offshore Balancing, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 6: Brooks, Stephen G., G. John Ikenberry, and William C. Wohlforth. 2013, Lean Forward: In Defense of American Engagement, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 92, No. 1: Burbach, Roger and Jim Tarbell. 2004, Imperial Overstretch: George W. Bush and the Hubris of Empire (New York, NY: Zed Books).

25 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 87 Cha, Taesuh. 2016, The Return of Jacksonianism: The International Implications of the Trump Phenomenon, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 4: Clarke, Michael and Anthony Ricketts. 2016, Understanding the Return of the Jacksonian Tradition, Orbis, Vol. 61, No. 1: Clinton, Hillary. 2011, America s Pacific Century, Foreign Policy, October 11, foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century (2017/02/06). Daalder, Ivo H. and James M. Lindsay. 2003, America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy ( Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press). Deudney, Daniel H. 2007, Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory from the Polis to the Global Village (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press). Donnelly, Faye. 2013, Securitization and the Iraq War: The Rules of Engagement in World Politics (New York, NY: Routledge). Eichengreen, Barry. 2016, The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty, Project Syndicate, December 14, (2017/02/06). Fukuyama, Francis. 1992, The End of History and the Last Man (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin Books). Goldberg, Jeffrey. 2016, The Obama Doctrine, The Atlantic Monthly, Vol. 317, No. 3: Gove, Michael and Kai Diekmann. 2017, Full Transcript of Interview with Donald Trump, The Times, January 16, (2017/02/06). Haines, John R. 2017, Divining a Trump Doctrine, Orbis, Vol. 61, No. 1: Hopper, Jessica and Ines de la Cuetara. 2016, Donald Trump Slams Trans-Pacific Partnership as a Continuing Rape of Our Country, ABC News, June 29, (2017/02/06). Ikenberry, G. John. 2011, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press) , Obama s Pragmatic Internationalism, The American Interest, Vol. 9, No. 5, (2017/02/06).

26 88 한국과국제정치 Jervis, Robert. 2011, Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective, G. John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth (eds.), International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press): Johnson, Chalmers. 2000, Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire (New York, NY: Metropolitan Books). Kagan, Robert. 2012, The World America Made (New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf ). Kazin, Michael. 2016, Trump and American Populism: Old Whine, New Bottles, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 6: Krauthammer, Charles. 2002, The Unipolar Moment Revisited, The National Interest, No. 70: Kupchan, Charles A. and Peter L. Trubowitz. 2013, American Statecraft in an Era of Domestic Polarisation, Rebekka Friedman, Kevork Oskanian, and Ramon Pacheco Pardo (eds.), After Liberalism?: The Future of Liberalism in International Relations (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan): Layne, Christopher. 2016, Stuck in the Middle East: Offshore Balancing is the Right Strategy, If Obama Has the Courage for It, The American Conservative, Vol. 15, No. 1: Lieven, Anatol. 2012, America Right Or Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press) , Clinton and Trump: Two Faces of American Nationalism, Survival, Vol. 58, No. 5: Mann, James. 2004, Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush s War Cabinet (New York, NY: Penguin Books). Mead, Walter Russell. 1999, The Jacksonian Tradition: And American Foreign Policy, The National Interest, Vol. 58, No. 5: , Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf ) , The Jacksonian Revolt: American Populism and the Liberal Order, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 96, No. 2: 2-7. Mearsheimer, John J. and Stephen M. Walt. 2016, The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 4:

27 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 89 Milkis, Sidney M. and Jesse H. Rhodes. 2007, George W. Bush, the Republican Party, and the New American Party System, Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 5, No. 3: Nicholas, Peter, Paul Beckett, and Gerald F. Seib. 2017, Trump Open to Shift on Russia Sanctions, One China Policy, The Wall Street Journal, January 13, (2017/02/06). Obama, Barack. 2009, Obama s Speech in Cairo, The New York Times, June 4, (2017/02/06). Parker, Ashley. 2016, Donald Trump Says NATO is Obsolete, UN is Political Game, The New York Times, April 2, r=0 (2017/02/06). Phillips, Tom. 2017, Trump Agrees to Support One China Policy in Xi Jinping Call, The Guardian, February 10, feb/10/donald-trump-agrees-support-one-china-policy-phone-call-xi-jinping (2017/02/26). Posen, Barry R. 2014, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press). Sanger, David E. and Maggie Haberman. 2016, Donald Trump on NATO, Turkey s Coup Attempt and the World, The New York Times, July 21, nytimes.com/2016/07/22/us/politics/donald-trump-foreign-policy-interview. html?_r=0 (2017/02/06). Seo, Jungkun. 2015, Agreements Without Commitments? The U.S. Congress and the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, , The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 1: The White House. 1994, A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, July (Washington, D.C.: The White House), (2017/02/06) , A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, February (Washington, D.C.: The White House), pdf (2017/02/06).

28 90 한국과국제정치. 2002, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September ( Washington, D.C.: The White House), NSSR/2002.pdf (2017/02/06) , National Security Strategy, May (Washington, D.C.: The White House), (2017/02/06) , America First Foreign Policy, america-first-foreign-policy (2017/02/26). Trump, Donald J. 2015, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again (New York, NY: Threshold Editions) a, Transcript: Donald Trump s Foreign Policy Speech, The New York Times, April 27, transcript-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0 (2017/02/06) b, Declaring America s Economic Independence, Politico, June 28, (2017/02/06) c, Republican Nomination Acceptance Speech, Donald J. Trump For President, Inc., Speech.pdf (2017/02/06) , The Inaugural Address, The White House, January 20, (2017/02/06). U.S. Department of Defense. 2012, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January, Strategic_Guidance.pdf (2017/02/06). U.S. House of Representatives. 2017, History, Art & Archives, Zakaria, Fareed. 2016, Populism on the March: Why the West is in Trouble, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 6: U.S. House of Representatives,

29 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 91 Abstract The Trump Administration and the Jacksonian Turn in US Foreign Policy Jungkun Seo & Taesuh Cha This research aims to explore the implications of Donald J. Trump s presidential victory for the U.S. political system and search for a Trump doctrine. By analyzing continuity and change in post-cold War American grand strategy, we argue that the Trump administration will pursue new nationalist policies, domestic and abroad, departing from the reigning liberal consensus. In addition, this article attempts to predict the way Trump s Jacksonian foreign policy will alter the international dynamics in Northeast Asia and the Korean peninsula. In conclusion, we discuss the epochal significance of a Trump presidency regarding the future of the liberal world order. Key words: Donald J. Trump, American Grand Strategy, U.S. Congress/Party Politics, Jacksonianism, Liberal World Order

30