MediaDisruptionSkript

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1 !! 미디어변동과저항의역사! 1 2 Socrates, Phaidros Johannes Gutenberg (1450, / ). / /. Martin Luther ( ), (1789) Newspaper, 3 4

2 ;!,! copyist!!! :! : 5!6 (phonograph) Johannes Trithemius! De Laude Scriptorum (1492 )!.,,,. Edison (1899) : 1910, TV: LP, CD, Download, Streaming!7 8

3 ! John Philip Sousa ( )! ( )!! These talking machines are going to ruin the artistic development of music in this country.! When I was a boy, in front of every house in the summer evenings, you would find young people together sining the songs of the day, or the old songs.! Today, you hear these infernal machines going night and day.! We will not have a vocal chord left.! The vocal chords will be eliminated by a process of evolution as was the tail of man when he came form the ape. 10 인터넷효과를바라보는 5 가지입장 (We-Think) Charles Leadbeater(2008), We-Think: Mass Innovation, not Mass Production: The Power of Mass Creativity 11 12

4 01 02 No Big Deal ebay=, Amazon=! David Egerton, The Shock of the Old Microsoft:,! 13 disruptive technologies 14 03! Andrew Keen, The Cult of the Amateur Jaron Lanier: Digital Maoism 15 16

5 04 05 Clay Shirky, Yochai Benkler, Jeff Jarvis,,, New Communication Structure = SNS Open Innovation, Open Data, Open Government 17,,,, MS: Walled Garden Jonathan Zittrain, The Future of the Internet, How to Stop it 18 5 기차 / 철도와경제및문화변동 19 20

6 1. 과거 사고패러다임의 지속 Clay Shirky!! Revolution doesn t happen when society adopts new technologies - it happens when society adopts new behaviors 마차길을 따라 철로 건설 A 방향으로 마차 하루 100여대 선로 7개 건설 B 방향으로 마차 하루 50여대 선로 3개 건설 21!22 2. 객차 디자인 1860년대 비로소 통로!23!24

7 3. 4. Privacy :, :, : ( 30km/h) : :!25!26 알고리즘과노동사회재편 :! The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Invent it!!27 28

8 Decoupling : : 31 32

9 33 34 Leontief Jeremy Rifkin 2,!

10 Observe OODA-Loop Framework Orient Deside Act automation John Boyd

11 Babysitter!? Cleaning drones 43 44

12 drones Self-Driving Car: 1 GB pro Second!!! / Self-Driving Cars, 350! (, ) 47 48

Monkey 2009년 미국 증시 거래량 50% 4 대학생, Northwestern University 현재

13 다른 관찰 지금까지 살펴본 것: 물리적 실체 알고리즘/프로그램 High Frequency Algorithm High Frequency Trading (HFT) 알고리즘 저널리즘/로봇 저널리즘 Stats Monkey 2009년 미국 증시 거래량 50% 4 대학생, Northwestern University 현재 약 80% 추정

14 StatSheet NarrativeScience 2012 Kristian Hammond 5 Pulitzer 55 56

15 Computational Legal Studies,! Michigan State University Pattern Detection: (Big) Data Mining, Data Analytics ReInvent Law London 2013,, ReInvent Law New York Outsourcing 3 D Printer 59 60

16 반응 관찰 새로운 흐름 아니다!! 새로운 기술은 언제나 일자리를 대체하고 새로운 일자리 만들어 왔다 과거 90% 노동자는 농업, 현재 2% 그럼에도 불구하고 일자리 있어 문제점: 중간영역 일자리 상실 10대 업종에 속한 기업들은... 매출이 100억원 늘어날 때마다 6.2명의 일자리 생겨 지금까지 기술 혁신은! 저가 노동력 대체 최근! 중간영역(변호사, 금융인, 기자 등)! 일자리 대체 일자리를 잃은 중간영역은 어디로? 63 64

17 Technology is no longer crea>ng new jobs at a rate that replaces old ones made obsolete elsewhere in the economy. - The Economist hgp:// intelligence In the years ahead, more sophis>cated somware technologies are going to bring civilisa>on ever closer to a near- workerless world. - Jeremy RiPin, The End of Work, It may be hard to believe, but before the end of this century, 70 percent of today s occupa>ons will likewise be replaced by automa>on. Yes, dear reader, even you will have your job taken away by machines. In other words, robot replacement is just a mager of >me. this upheaval is being led by a second wave of automa>on, one that is centered on ar>ficial cogni>on, cheap sensors, machine learning, and distributed smarts. This deep automa>on will touch all jobs, from manual labor to knowledge work. - Kevin Kelly, Wired, BeGer than Human 2012 hgp:// robots- will- take- our- jobs/all/ Orient? Marshall McLuhan! There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening. To Contemplate! 67 68

18 방향설정 Orient Luddite( ), Swing Riots(1830) Sabotage 두 개의 극단적 반응? 방향설정 Dystopia Steven E. Jones,

No one had forecast the development of a machine industry; it came as a complete surprise.

19 On the eve of the greatest industrial revolu>on in history, no sign and portents were forthcoming. Capitalism arrived unannounced. No one had forecast the development of a machine industry; it came as a complete surprise. - Karl Polany, The Great Transforma>on: The Poli>cal and Economic Origins of Our Time, 1944, p. 89) (Flying Shuttle, 1733, John Kay) Gogh! (1884) Spinning Jenny (1764) capitalism arrived unannounced! 75 76

! Borg Complex A Borg Complex is exhibited by writers and pundits who explicitly assert or implicitly assume that resistance to technology is futile.! - Michael Sacasa 77 78 /VC!

20 ! Borg Complex A Borg Complex is exhibited by writers and pundits who explicitly assert or implicitly assume that resistance to technology is futile.! - Michael Sacasa /VC!. The goal of the future is full unemployment, so we can play. That s why we have to destroy the present politico-economic system.! - Arther C. Clarke (1960 s) 79 Utopia? so we can play digital Athens?! :,,! : 80

21 !? 21! / 81,!, /?? 82 (data) ( ),! ( ) /( ) /( )! = cultural technology 83 84

22 = Act /? :!!,! To understand a thing is to gain the power to change it.! - Ramez Naam, Nexus 85 2, 3,,!!86!87

InternetSociety01

InternetSociety01 기술변동과 알고리즘사회 1 01. ( 미디어 ) 기술과사회 02. 알고리즘사회 03. 네트워크경제이론 2 ! 미디어기술과사회 3 인터넷효과를바라보는 5 가지입장 4 ! 인터넷효과를바라보는 5 가지입장 (We-Think) Charles Leadbeater(2008), We-Think: Mass Innovation, not Mass Production: The