Publisher Byun, Sung-ryul Publication Date 8 May 2017 Publication Place Market Analysis & Research Dept.,KAB Real Estate Research Institute 291, Innov

Transcription

1 KAB OFFICE REPORT prime office (English Version / 국문판 ) Q. Vol.6 Market Trend Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market Trend of Overseas Commercial Property Markets(Asia-Pacific Region) Q. Vol.1 KAB Real Estate Research Institute

2 Publisher Byun, Sung-ryul Publication Date 8 May 2017 Publication Place Market Analysis & Research Dept.,KAB Real Estate Research Institute 291, Innovalleyro (919-2, Sinseodong), Dong-gu, Daegu Metropolitan City 41068, Korea Website http: // phone Fax Editor Chae Mie Oak Planning & Editing Min Chul Hong(k25838@kab.co.kr) Design & Printing JS Printing

3 KAB Real Estate Research Institute was established as a training institute of appraisal and assessment of KAB in It has ever since researched the techniques for appraisal and assessment, developed real estate statistics, and supported the government s real estate policies. Now and in future, this organization will continue contributing to developing the national economy through broad and in-depth research as well as consultation services

4 06 Prime Office Rental Market Explanations of Indicators Office Rental Market of Seoul Office Rental Market by Style in Seoul Office Rental Market by Segment in Seoul Regional Prime Office Rental Market 14 Supply and Transaction Market Office Supply Market Office Transation Market 16 Economic Trend Interest Rate Newly Established Corporations and Bankrupt Corporations Business Survey Index The Number of Employees by Area

5 2017.1Q. Vol.6 Contents [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market Expert s Column Status of the Logistics Property Distribution of Logistic Warehouses and Hot Spots Trend of the Logistics Property Market Trend of Rental Price of the Logistic Properties Price of Land Where Logistic Warehouses are Located at Outlook of the Logistics Property Market Trend of Overseas Commercial Property Markets (Asia-Pacific Region)

6 Korea Appraisal Board 06 Explanations of Indicators Target Offices Total 72 Prime Office Buildings ETC 5 58 Prime Office Buildings in Seoul (including CBD, GBD, YBD, ETC) CBD 21 4 Prime Office Buildings in Bundang 7 Prime Office Buildings in Busan YBD 11 3 Prime Office Buildings in Songdo, Incheon Definition of Prime Office: - Seoul: An office building with more than 33,000 m2 of gross floor area or higher than 21 ground levels Incheon 3 GBD 21 - Bundang, Busan, and Incheon Songdo: 16,500 m2 or wider in gross floor area Investment Indexes Classification of Indexes Busan 7 Bundang 4 Vacancy Rate Rent Fee Prime Office Rental Market Vacancy Rate(%) = Return on Investment (A: Gross Floor Area, V: Vacant Area) Rent Fee (KRW/ m2 ) Return on Investment (T) = Income Yield (I) + Capital Return (C) = (RA: Rented Area, R: Rent Fee) Income Yield by Building (I) = Detailed Criteria Capital Return by Building (C) = (NOI: Net Operating Income, V 0 : Asset Value at the Beginning of the Term, V 1 : Asset Value at the End of the Term) Classification Details Seoul CBD GBD YBD Jongno-gu, Jung-gu Gangnam-gu,Seocho-gu Yeongdeungpo-gu Area ETC Other Areas Expect for Three Areas Above Bundang Busan Songdo, Incheon seohyun-dong, sampyung-dong, gumi-dong, sunae-dong Yeonje-gu, Busanjin-gu, Jung-gu, Geum jeong-gu Songdo-dong Less than 10 years Less than 10 years old from the year of construction completed Age of Building Less than 20 years Less than 20 years old from the year of construction completed More than 20 years More than 20 years old from the year of construction completed Station Influence Area Wide Road Very Strong Station Influence Area Others Connecting Side with Wide Road Others With 200m from a subway station Connection Condition with Road is Connection with Wide Road

7 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Prime Office Rental Market To produce a more accurate investment index of the Prime Office lease market, the survey samples of Q will be reconstructed to match those of the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation s Lease Trend Survey, hence halting the continuity with the initially produced market index. Therefore the Prime Office investment index of Q has been explained basing on the results of the background research (4Q. 2016) and taking into consideration the changes made. The statistics up to 4Q are the separately researched results from the original prime office buildings. English Version Office Rental Market of Seoul Increased vacancy rates in prime office space causing 0.2% rise in vacancy rates relative to previous quarter; no change in lease fees from previous quarter. 1.70% return on investment. Vacancy Rate: 10.8% (up 0.2%p from previous quarter) Rental Price: 25.0 thousand Won/ m2 (holding steady from previous quarter) Return on Investment: 1.70% The vacancy rate, with steady new supply and active relocation of companies among zones, and the reflection of increased vacancy rates in prime buildings in YBD and CBD being reflected in the overall increase in vacancy rates for Seoul, reached 10.8%, up 0.2% from the previous quarter (Vacancy rate for Q : 10.6%). The increase in the mean vacancy rate for Seoul was led by YBD and CBD, due to relocation of subsidiaries of major conglomerates and the supply of new company buildings Lease fees rose in the CBD zone of Seoul, while lease fees remained steady in the YBD, GBD zones. The mean lease fee for Seoul was found to be 25.0 thousand won/m 2 Return on investment as of Q was 1.70% on average for Seoul. Among market zones, GBD (1.72%) had the highest return on investment, followed by CBD(1.69%), YBD(1.66%). Prime Office Rental Market Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul (Unit: %) (Unit: 1,000won/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Right: R Left: V Seoul Seoul CBD CBD YBD YBD GBD GBD Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Seoul CBD YBD GBD Item Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/ m2 ) Return on investment (%) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q Seoul - General (0.2) () 1.70 CBD (0.7) (1.4) 1.69 YBD (2.0) () 1.66 GBD () () 1.72 Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/m 2 (%, from previous quarter)

8 Korea Appraisal Board 08 Office Rental Market by Style in Seoul Style Index Buildings were grouped according to building age, road access and subway station accessibility to analyze vacancy rate, rental fee, and return on investment trends by group Analysis of prime office properties by style for Q showed that offices less than 20 years old had lower lease fees, while offices less than 10 years old had a higher return on investment. As for subway station accessibility, vacancy rates in buildings located extremely close to subway stations were 3.6%p lower than office properties in other zones, with lease fees 6.2 thousand Won/m 2 higher on average. As for adjacency to main thoroughfares, vacancy rates in buildings located adjacent to main thoroughfares were around 1.3%p lower than officer properties in other zones, with lease fees 4.9 thousand Won/m 2 higher on average. Age of Buildings 2017 Q1 Comparison of Indexes by Building Age Age of Buildings : Service Life of the current year - construction completed year Prime Office Rental Market Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/ m2 ) Return on investment (%) Classification `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q Up to 10 years (0.2) (0.1) 1.74 Up to 20 years () () 1.73 Exceeding 20 years (0.6) () 1.64 Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) As for vacancy rates by building age, vacancy rates in buildings not exceeding 20 years in age were lowest, with rates at 11.5% for buildings up to 10 years old, 9.9% in buildings up to 20 years old, and 11.0% in buildings older than 20 years. The vacancy rates for buildings up to 10 years old were highest, up 0.2% from the previous quarter. Lease fees were 27.7 thousand Won/m 2 for buildings up to 10 years old, and 22.6 thousand Won/m 2 and 24.7 thousand Won/m 2, respectively for buildings up to 20 years old and exceeding 20 years. Lease fees were relatively higher for buildings up to 10 years old, and were lowest in buildings more than 20 years old. Return on investment was highest in buildings up to 10 years old, at 1.74%, followed by buildings up to 20 years old at 1.73%. Return of investment was 1.64% for building exceeding 20 years. For new buildings, whereas the vacancy rate was relatively high due to new tenants, the rate of investment was relatively high due to the higher lease fees. Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Service Life Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Service Life (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Right: R Rental Price: Less than 10 years Less than 20 years More than 20 years Left: V Vacancy Rate: Less than 10 years Less than 20 years More than 20 years Less than 10 years Less than 20 years More than 20 years

9 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Station Influence Areas Comparison of Q Index for Areas with Subway Station Access Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Station Influence Area (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Right: R Left: V Classification Rental Price: Vacancy Rate: Strong Station Influence Areas Strong Station Influence Areas Other Areas Other Areas Strong Station Influence Area: within 200m from a subway station Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/ m2 ) Return on investment (%) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q Areas with subway station access (0.6) () 1.67 Other (-0.1) () 1.73 Vacancy rates in prime office properties with subway station access were relatively lower than in prime office properties in other zones (-3.6%p). Vacancy rates relative to the previous quarter rose 0.6%p for buildings with subway station access, and dropped 0.1%p for other zones. Return on investment for subway station access zones was 1.67%, and 1.73% for other zones (6p% gap). However, lease fees were 6.2 thousand Won/m 2 higher for prime office properties with subway station access. Subway station access was shown to substantially impact lease fees. Prime office properties with subway station access, despite their relatively high lease fees, show low vacancy rates, which reflect tenants preference of location over lower lease fees. The popularity of prime office properties with subway station access is expected to continue into the future. Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Station Influence Area (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Strong Station Influence Areas Other Areas English Version Prime Office Rental Market Areas Connecting with Wide Road Comparison of Q Indexes by Adjacency to Main Thoroughfares Classification Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) Connection with wide road: Road connection condition is a wide road (the Width of Road: More than 35m) Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/ m2 ) Return on investment (%) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q Adjacency to main thoroughfares (0.3) () 1.69 Other (0.1) (0.1) 1.72 Prime office properties adjacent to main thoroughfares had vacancy rates 1.3%p lower than other prime office properties, with lease fees 4.9 thousand Won/m 2 higher. Return on investment was 3%p lower for prime office properties adjacent to main thoroughfares. In general, return on investment was higher for buildings adjacent to main thoroughfares. However, this trend has been reversed since Q Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Connection with Wide Road Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Connection with Wide Road (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Right: R Left: V Rental Price: Vacancy Rate: Areas Connection with wide road Areas Connection with wide road Other Areas Other Areas Areas Connection with wide road Other Areas

10 Korea Appraisal Board 10 Office Rental Market by Segment in Seoul CBD Vacancy Rate: 11.3 (up 0.7%p from previous quarter) Rental Price: 31.1 thousand Won/ m2 (Similar with the previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.69% Due to increased supply of prime office space within the CBD zone, vacancy rates rose 0.7%p from the previous quarter to 11.3%, while leas fees rose 1.4% from the previous quarter to 31.1 thousand Won/m 2 Increase in vacancy rates due to relocation of Samsung subsidiaries and completion of Susong Square expansion project in Susong-dong Conglomerates such as Amore Pacific, Hana Bank, and SK Construction are expected to relocate, and therefore vacancy rates in the CBD zone are expected to continue rising for the time being Return on investment was 1.69%, 1%p lower than the mean rate for Seoul, due to the drop in income reduction caused by an overall rise in vacancy rates. Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in CBD Trend of Return on Investment of CBD Prime Office Rental Market (Unit: %) (Unit : 1,000KRW/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q CBD Rental Price CBD Vacancy Rate Return on Investment of CBD YBD Vacancy Rate: 10.9% (up 2.0%p from previous quarter) Rental Price: 22.9 thousand Won/ m2 (Holding steady from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.66% Vacancy rate for the YBD zone rose to 10.9%, up 2.0%p from the previous quarter, due to the relocation of large conglomerates. The relocation of larges securities companies into the city center zone has reduced lease demand, causing vacancy rates to rise. Completion of large office properties is expected (K Tower in 2017, new Teachers Mutual Aid Association building in late 2018, Parc One in 2020), bringing about further changes in the future YBD lease market. LG Group subsidiaries currently occupying the FKI Building and IFC Building in Yoeuido will relocate to the Magok LG Science Park in late 2017 Lease fees held steady from the previous quarter, and it is expected that increasing vacancy rates due to moving out of tenants may cause lease fees to drop. Return on investment was lowest among all zones in Seoul, at 1.66%

11 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in YBD Trend of Return on Investment of YBD (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 2 YBD Rental Price YBD Vacancy Rate (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Return on Investment of YBD English Version GBD Vacancy Rate: 5.8% (Holding steady from previous quarter) Vacancy rate for GBD zone in Q was at 5.8%, holding steady from the previous quarter; this represented the lowest vacancy rate among all zones in Seoul. The absence of new prime office space supply after completion of the Parnas Tower and the relocation of Samsung subsidiaries into the Samsung Life Insurance Seocho Tower has resulted in lower vacancy rates compared to other zones. The completion of Majesta City in Seocho-dong early this year and plans to relocate the Coupang headquarters in Samsung-dong to Tower 730 (in early 2018) are expected to future vacancy rate fluctuations. Lease fees were around 25.0 thousand Won/m2, holding steady from the previous quarter. Due to changes in vacancy rates, lease fees are expected to be adjusted accordingly in the future. Return on investment was 1.72%, higher than the CBD (1.69%) and YBD (1.66%) zones Rental Price: 25.0 thousand Won/ m2 (Holding steady from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.72% Prime Office Rental Market Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in GBD (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Trend of Return on Investment of GBD (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q GBD Rental Price GBD Vacancy Rate Return on Investment of GBD

12 Korea Appraisal Board 12 Bundang Vacancy Rate: 18.4% (Up 1.8%p from previous quarter) Rental Price: 16.9 thousand Won/ m2 (Up 0.7% from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.88% Vacancy rate for prime office space in Bundang rose 1.8%p from the previous quarter, to 18.4% Vacancy rate was driven up by large vacancies in some of the buildings included in the sample; vacancy rates vary among the sample buildings Lease fees were 16.9 thousand Won/m 2 on average, up 0.7% from the previous quarter Return on investment was 1.88% Prime Office Rental Market Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in Bundang (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) (Unit: %) `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q rent at Bundang rate of vacnacy at Bundang Trend of Return on Investment of ETC `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Return on Investment of Bundang 1.88 Provincial Prime Office Rental Markets Busan Vacancy Rate: % (Holding steady from previous quarter) Rental Price: 8.3 thousand Won/ m2 (Holding steady from previous quarter) Return on investment: 1.58% Vacancy rate for prime office space in Busan was %, holding steady from the previous quarter The slowing of the regional industrial economy and downsizing of logistics and manufacturing companies is expected to drive up prime office vacancies in the future Lease fees were 8.3 thousand Won/m 2 on average, holding steady from the previous quarter. Return on investment was 1.58%. Vacancy rates and lease fees held steady, but may fluctuate slightly in the future depending on regional economic conditions.

13 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Trend of vacancy rate and rent in Busan Trend of Return on Investment of Busan (Unit: %) (Unit: %, KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q Busan rental price Songdo, Incheon Busan vacancy rate Vacancy Rate: 42.1% (Down 6.2% from previous quarter) Vacancy rate remains high at 42.1%, down 6.2p% from the previous quarter. Lease fees were 8.1 thousand Won/m 2 on average, similar to the previous quarter Among prime office properties in Songdo, properties owned by the public sector are leased out without vacancies. However, privately owned properties are still experiencing difficulties in attracting tenants, leading to high vacancy rates. Vacancy rates dropped slightly recently with increased numbers of retail tenants occupying lower stories of prime office properties in Songdo. Due to the Booyoung Group s acquisition of the Posco E&C building in Songdo, and the supply of new office space in Block B5, the current vacancy rates for Songdo will likely maintain current levels for the time being. (Unit: %) 1.49 Rental Price: 8.1 thousand Won/ m2 (Holding steady from previous quarter) Return on Investment of Busan 1.58 English Version Prime Office Rental Market

14 Korea Appraisal Board 14 Supply and Transaction Market Office Supply Market Total office supply in Seoul area as of Q was 275,963 m2 in a total of 10 buildings, with 3 prime-grade office properties supplying a gross floor area of 232,663 m2 ) Office building supply in Q was at 10 properties, down 41.2% from the same quarter of the previous year (based on occupancy approval date). However, due to the influence of prime-grade office space supply, total floor area supply reached 275,963 m2, up 57.8% from the same quarter of the previous year New Office Space Supply in Seoul Area Supply and Transaction Market Period Number of properties (buildings) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Floor area ( m2 ) 94, ,420 43, , ,847 38, , , ,963 New office space supply in Q by zone was 1 in YBD, 3 in GBD, and 6 in ETC. New prime-grade properties were the SK Securities Building in YBD (gross floor area 47,362 m2 ), and the Lotte World Tower (Levels 14~38 and 108~114, 104,627 m2 office space) and Tower730 (gross floor area 80,673 m2 ) in the ETC zone. Status of expected supply of office buildings by district District Name of building Gross floor area( m2 ) Floor count Expected completion date CBD Head office, Hana Bank 54, stories / 6 basement levels June 2017 Centropolis 140, stories / 8 basement levels June 2018 KTCU Building 83, stories / 4 basement levels 2018 YBD Parc , stories / 7 basement levels TBD Parc , stories / 7 basement levels TBD Lotte Chilsung 379,349 - After 2020 GBD Seocho Majesta City 82, stories / 7 basement levels June 2017 Hyundiai Motors Headquarters 928, ~2020 ETC Acro Seoul Forest (D Tower) 98, stories / Songdo, Incheon Block B, Zones 1 and 3, Songdo 230, stories / 5 basement levels TBD Source: JLL, etc. (Including Internet articles)

15 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Office Transation Market 15,097 commercial and business building properties (1,095,000 m2 ) for sale in the Seoul area in Q1 2017, with 25 office spaces with a floor area of 111,305 m2. * Due to disclosure of actual transaction details for commercial and business properties on December 15, 2016, general office building property sales figures were extracted from the announced actual transaction details for real estate transaction statistics. A total of 6,245 commercial and business property transactions occurred in Seoul (909,880 m2 ), with 25 sales of general office building properties. This was down 24.2% (down 56.6% in terms of floor area) compared to the same period of the previous year. By zone, CBD had 1 transaction, GBD had 15, and ETC had 9. Commercial and Business Property Transactions in Seoul Area Period Commercial and Business The average price for sale transactions was 5.82 million Won per m2 : 5.41 million Won/ m2 for GBD, 6.09 million Won/ m2 for ETC. Key Office Sales Transactions Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11,154 13,776 14,200 13,639 12,550 12,747 15,804 14,118 15,097 Sale Transactions 7,010 8,787 7,888 7,560 6,608 7,468 8,650 7,568 6,245 Office sales District Classification Gross floor area( m2 ) Floor Size Sales Price (1 billion KRW) Acquired by English Version Supply and Transaction Market GBD Ilsong Building 20, stories / 6 basement levels KTB Asset Management GBD Dogok Building, Korea Educational Broadcasting System 18, stories / 3 basement levels 73.3 Hanwell Co., Ltd. GBD Bareun Building 11, stories / 6 basement levels 80.2 Aegis Asset Management GBD Metro Building (Samsung Life Insurance) 13, stories / 1 basement levels 86.1 Mastern Asset Management (Angelo, Gordon & Company) ETC Seongnae Building, SK Networks 7,635 8 stories / 5 basement levels 43.6 Handsome Global Supply status Transaction status (Unit: %) (Unit: Number of buildings) (Unit: %) (Unit: Number of buildings) 600, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 84,135 94, , , , , ,000 76,501 67,970 96, ,305 43,534 38, Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Area of buildings completed Number of buildings completed Total area sold Number of sale transactions Note: Figures as of end of March, 2017 Source: Internet Architectural Administration Information System Note: Figures as of end of March, 2017 Source: RTMS

16 Korea Appraisal Board 16 Economic Trend Interest Rate Call interest rate maintained 1.23% without major fluctuations during Q Interest rate on government bonds was impacted by U.S. Interest rate hikes, rising to 1.71% Continued uncertainty in the domestic economy, and increased difficulty in procurement of funds has resulted in a bond spread of 0.50%p. This is expected to gradually increase in the future Newly Established Corporations and Bankrupt Corporations The number of newly registered corporations is continuing to increase, up 7.89% (As of February 2017) compared to the same period of the previous year The number of newly registered corporations as of February 2017 is 8,237. This figure fluctuated throughout 2016, and increased by 19.39% compared to the same month of the previous year The number of bankrupt corporations, which has recently been trending down, is gradually increasing 6 Corporate Bond Treasury Bond (Right) Call Rate (unsecured) Treasury Bond (3-year maturity) Corporate Bond (3-year maturity, over-the-counter) (Unit : %) ,000 8,000 Newly Established Corporates (Right) Bankrupt Corporates (Left) (Unit of number) , , , Economic Trend 0 '11.03M '12.03M '13.03M '14.03M '3M '16.03M '17.03M Source: the Bank of Korea 0 0 '11.02M '12.02M '13.02M '14.02M '2M '16.02M '17.02M Source: the Small and Medium Business Administration and Korea Financial Telecommunications and Clearings Institute Business Survey Index (BSI) Business Survey Index (BSI) for all industries is 78, increasing gradually since April 2016 Real estate and leasing industry BSI (based on business performance) recorded 76 as of March 2017, due to dropping market confidence As for construction, market confidence dropped slightly in Q4 2016, but improved slightly in March 2017, reaching 70. The Number Of Employees By Area The number of employed persons in the country as of February 2017 reached million, up 1.46% from the same month of the previous year The number of employed persons in the capital city area as of February 2017 reached 13.7 million, up 0.86% from the same month of the previous year The number of office workers in the capital city area, at 2.56 million, increased 1.31% from the same month of the previous year (2.52 million in February 2016) 100 Newly Established Corporates Bankrupt Corporates real estate industry 5 The Nation Metropolitan Areas (% increase/decrease from the same time last year) '11.03M '12.03M '13.03M '14.03M '3M '16.03M '17.03M Source: the Bank of Korea -1 '11.02M '12.02M '13.02M '14.02M '2M '16.02M '17.02M Source: Statistics Korea

17 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market English Version Status of the Logistics Property The logistics real estate market, drawing much attention from domestic and foreign investors and REITs, has been achieving steady growth, and the government policy on promoting investment in the logistics real estate market is expected to have a positive impact on the logistics industry. In a survey on the outlook on the promising commercial real estate properties to invest in conducted for this report in the fourth quarter of 2016, logistics facilities ranked No. 2 (27.1%) as a promising investment asset. Similar results (29%) were observed in a similar survey conducted in Logistics real estate properties have been deemed to be a promising asset for two consecutive years. Prospective investment assets in % 3% 25.0% 2% % 1% 5.0% % 16.7% large-size office buildings 12.5% small- & mediumsize office buildings 29.2% retails 8.3% studio building (so-called officetel) 2.1% 27.1% 4.2% hotels logistics facilities knowledge industry center % others [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market Source: A survey with the experts at the Research Institute of KAB (2016) According to a report issued by WTO in 2016, trade volume has been plummeting due to the low growth trends and falling prices of raw materials observed worldwide. The trade volume of the Republic of Korea is expected to record less than USD 1 trillion for the second year in a row. Of particular note, US President Donald Trump s nationalist ( America First ) policy is expected to spark regionalistic tendencies across the world, and there have been voices of concern that this will further slow down global trade and lead to an economic recession. Also, the economic retaliatory measures implemented by China against Korea in relation to the decision to introduce THAAD to Korea have resulted in a downtrend in the Korea-China trade, thereby presenting challenges and obstacles in the logistics real estate market. On the other hand, there have been a growing number of rentals and purchases of warehouses located in the capital area (Seoul National Capital Area), with a number of social commerce businesses offering same-day and next-day shipping services, and it is predicted that the demand for logistics facilities will continue to increase with the growth of the shipping-related services. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are aggressively increasing their investments into logistics center, engaging in development of such facilities in addition to purchasing the already-built properties. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT) is dedicating its efforts to promoting investment into logistics real estate properties through a business agreement concluded between the logistics industry and REITS [Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (KAREIT) and Korea Integrated Logistics Association (KILA) in Aug. 2015] and an investment promotion policy (Measures to Promote the Competitiveness of the REITs Industry established in Feb. 2016).

18 Korea Appraisal Board 18 Distribution of Logistic Warehouses and Hot Spots There are a total of 6,105 warehouses that have been registered with MOLIT as of March Most of the warehouses are concentrated in the areas with major ports such as Incheon and Busan, and the outskirts of the capital area. Distribution of warehouses by city and province Sejong Daegu Daejeon Ulsan Gwangju Jeju-do Seoul Gangwon-do Chungcheongbuk-do Jeonlabuk-do Chungcheongnam-do Gyeongsangbuk-do [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market Jeonlanam-do Busan Incheon Gyeongsangnam-do Gyeonggi-do Source: National Logistics Information Center 40.7% of all warehouses in Korea are found in the capital area (Gyeonggi-do: 27.4%; Incheon: 10.6%; Seoul: 2.7%) The warehouse facilities in Incheon and Busan are mainly container-related facilities, bonded warehouses, and oil warehouses storing goods for import and export, whereas the room-temperature warehouses for storing goods to be distributed within the country are primarily found in the outskirts of the capital area. The concentration of warehouses in the capital area is deemed to be due to the accessibility to the consumer market and the ease of supplying manpower. Warehouse distribution % 5.0% 1% % 2% 25.0% 3% Warehouse hot spots Source: KAB and National Logistics Information Center

19 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Trend of the Logistics Property Market More recently, large warehouses and related facilities are primarily being built in the capital area and metropolitan cities, in line with the trend of transitioning into third-party logistics (entrusted service and outsourcing). Investors and tenants are showing preference toward the regions in the metropolitan areas with excellent transportation conditions, with the ease of access to the transportation networks. A strong polarization between new and large warehouses and old warehouses is currently being observed. Capital area Logistics Real Estate Market English Version Warehouses in the capital area are mainly found in Seoul, which is arguably the most prominent final consumption point. The capital area was divided into different zones in terms of region (south and north) and transportation time for an analysis of rent and land value (transportation time: 30 min, 60 min, 90 min and 120 min). The zone division was derived through a GIS spatial analysis based on the points that one can get to within a certain amount of time by driving at the maximum speed allowed by law using the road networks in place. N (North) and S (South) means that the area is situated to the north of Seoul and the area south of Seoul, respectively, while the number indicates the time it takes to get to the place from Seoul by car in minutes. (e.g. S30 = A region located south of Seoul that takes less than 30 minutes to get to from Seoul) Trend of Rental Price of the Logistic Properties The rental fees for warehouses are dependent on their distance from the center of Seoul, which is the primary point of final consumption, meaning that the farther a warehouse is from Seoul, the cheaper the rent is. A comparison of the rent for warehouses in the north and south zones, with the transportation time being the same, showed that the rental fees are relatively higher in the north. [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, 서울인천 S30 S60 S90 S120 N30 N60 N90 N120

20 Korea Appraisal Board 20 There were differences in the rental fees for the logistics real estate properties in the capital area in relation to the ease of supplying manpower, land value, and accessibility. Excluding the regions within Seoul, the areas within a 30-min travel distance of Seoul had the highest rent, reflecting the fact that it is most preferred by lessees and investors. Rent in all of the zones showed a slight y.o.y decline. Due to the preference for new and superior properties, owners of warehouses that are relatively old are offering lower rent to attract lessees. The level of rental fees in the northern zone was slightly higher than that of the southern zone when the transportation time was the same. This is due to the high competition in the market in the southern zone arising from the large number of warehouses located in this zone. Zone Included area Average rent (KRW/3.3m 2 ) Seoul The entire area of Seoul 60,000~33,000 Incheon The entire area of Incheon 35,000~27,000 S30 S60 S90 S120 Bucheon, Gwangmyeong, northern Siheung, Anyang, Gunpo, Gwacheon, Uiwang, Seongnam, Hanam, northern Yongin, northern Suwon, and northern Gwangju Southern Siheung, Ansan, Suwon, Hwaseong, Osan, Pyeongtaek, Yongin, Anseong, Icheon, southern Gwangju, western Yangpyeong, western Yeoju, northern Anseong, and northern Cheonan Cheonan, Dangjin, Asan, Seosan, Jincheon, Eumseong, northern Yesan, northern Yeongi, northern Cheongwon, Chungju, western Wonju, western Hoengseong, eastern Yangpyeong, northern Yeoju Hongseong, southern Yesan, southern Gongju, northern Cheongyang, northern Daejeon, southern Cheongwon, western Boeun, northern Goesan, northern Jecheon, and western Hoengseong 35,000~25,000 33,000~17,500 20,000~15,000 22,000~11,000 [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market N30 Eastern Gimpo, Goyang, Uijeongbu, southern Yangju, and western Namyangju 48,500~28,000 N60 Western Gimpo, southern Paju, northern Yangju, eastern Namyangju, Dongducheon, Pocheon, and Gapyeong 40,000~18,000 N90 Yeoncheon, southern Cheorwon, western Chuncheon, and western Hongcheon 21,000~18,000 N120 Hwacheon, northern Chuncheon, and central Hongcheon 20,000~15,000 Note: Based on room-temperature warehouses Source: Research Institute of KAB Price of Land Where Logistic Warehouses are Located at As for land prices by logistics real estate locations, prices were highest for Seoul (3.63 million Won/m 2 ), followed by zone S30 (1.85 million Won/m 2 ). Even in the same zone, land prices for logistics warehouses in urban areas were 1.3 to 2 times higher than those outside urban areas. 400 (Unit: 10,000 Won/m 2 ) 서울인천 S30 S60 S90 S120 N30 N60 N90 도시지역 도시지역외

21 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 Assessed property value was relatively lower for properties located farther away from Seoul and for properties not located in urban areas Whereas the distances to Northern and Southern zone facilities are the same, higher land prices were assessed for facilities belonging to the Southern zone than those in the Northern zone. This is because the concentration of newly developed logistics facilities is higher in the Southern zone. Land prices around logistics real estate is expected to continue rising in Led by popular zones such as S30 and S60, where the supply of new logistics facilities was highest. Zone Areas included Average land price (10,000 Won/m 2 ) Urban areas Non-urban areas Seoul All of Seoul Incheon All of Incheon S30 Bucheon, Gwangmyeong, northern Siheung, Anyang, Gunpo, Gwacheon, Uiwang, Seongnam, Hanam, northern Yongin, northern Suwon, and northern Gwangju S60 Southern Siheung, Ansan, Suwon, Hwaseong, Osan, Pyeongtaek, Yongin, Anseong, Icheon, southern Gwangju, western Yangpyeong, western Yeoju, northern Anseong, and northern Cheonan S90 Cheonan, Dangjin, Asan, Seosan, Jincheon, Eumseong, northern Yesan, northern Yeongi, northern Cheongwon, Chungju, western Wonju, western Hoengseong, eastern Yangpyeong, eastern Yeoju S120 Hongseong, southern Yesan, southern Gongju, northern Cheongyang, northern Daejeon, southern Cheongwon, western Boeun, northern Goesan, northern Jecheon, and western Hoengseong N30 Eastern Gimpo, Goyang, Uijeongbu, southern Yangju, and western Namyangju N60 Western Gimpo, southern Paju, northern Yangju, eastern Namyangju, Dongducheon, Pocheon, and Gapyeong - 34 N90 Yeoncheon, southern Cheorwon, western Chuncheon, and western Hongcheon - 14 English Version Categorization of zones into urban/non-urban areas by use / Urban areas : Residential, commercial, industrial and green zones / Non-urban areas: Management (preservation, production, plan) zones, agricultural and forest zones, conservation zones Note: Based on room-temperature warehouses Source: Source: Research Institute of KAB (As of 2015) Outlook of the Logistics Property Market The logistics real estate market in 2017 is expected to be characterized by increased direct development of logistics centers, market growth, and aggressive investment by domestic and foreign investors. There will be new logistics complexes * in Seoul and Incheon, of which REITs and Fund Size the construction is expected to be completed by 2018, and there are 1,200 also new logistics centers being established near Deokpyeong IC and 1,000 Yangji IC. As such, the competition in the logistics real estate market in 800 the capital area is expected to become more heated. 600 In 2016, the principal investors in the logistics real estate market were actually domestic investors, and similar trends are expected to be observed this year as well In the past, domestic investors faced challenges in investing into the logistics real estate market because there were higher risks associated Logistics fund REITs with logistics real estate properties compared to other types of properties, despite their high rate of return on investment, and the promising Source: Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA) properties had already been purchased by foreign investors. More recently, however, the steady and high ROI of logistics real estate properties has drawn aggressive investments from domestic investors, some of whom are directly developing such properties themselves. The keen interest in logistics real estate properties is the perception of such properties as an alternative that guarantees a return on investment and helps diversify the investment asset portfolio. The sales prices of office buildings have steadily been on the rise, but due to the falling ROI resulting from the rising vacancy rates, investors have turned their attention to logistics facilities as an alternative. Of particular note, in the case of logistics real estate investment, it is expected to continue to grow through the means of indirect investment (REITs and real estate funds). As of December 2015, there are eleven REITs who own logistics facilities as their underlying assets, with their total assets valued at KRW billion. This is a 29-fold growth compared to 2011, and it is expected to be higher in the future. There are thirty-seven funds with logistics facilities as the underlying assets, which amount to KRW trillion in total, and this is a 35-fold growth compared to [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Logistics Property Market * 4 distribution complexes being newly formed and developed within the metropolitan regions (Gyeonggi Gwangju Joongdae: 210,000m 2, Icheon: 110,000m 2, Yongin Yangji 80,000m 2, Hwasung Jangan 320,000m 2 ) and recently selected 4 distribution complexes in 2016 (Gyeonggi Gwangju Jikdong, Gyeonggi Gwangju Opo, South Yeoju and etc. the size of 182,000m 2 )

22 Korea Appraisal Board 22 Expert s Colum* Jones Lang Lasalle, JLL Real Estate Intelligence Service Trend of Overseas Commercial property Market(Asia-Pacific Region) Leasing and investment markets prove resilient Expert s Column The AP commercial real estate market had a strong finish to what was a year of unprecedented uncertainty. On the office leasing front, financial and tech firms continued to underpin buoyant occupier activity, and with standout performances from several cities including Delhi and Sydney. Transactional activity was lifted by sustained investor demand in the region, with China and South Korea seeing record quarterly and annual volumes. Interestingly, Shanghai topped the ranking of global investment destinations for the first time in 4Q16 and finished among the top five markets overall in 2016 on the back of record investment activity. Leasing activity finishes the year on a strong note Asia Pacific s gross leasing volumes increased 23% y-o-y in 4Q16. In Australia, volumes rose by a healthy 19% y-o-y, driven in large part by Sydney which saw the second highest volumes in AP while Perth also recorded solid gains although from a low base. India s volumes surged around 80% y-o-y, improving in all four Tier I markets. The largest rise (and volume) was recorded in Delhi where big-ticket transactions were made - largely in recent completions. Volumes also moved up in Tokyo as landlords began pre-leasing new supply due in 2018, completions in 2016 created more options, and tenants relocated from outside the CBD. The Hong Kong leasing market was relatively subdued though mainland China requirements remained the pillar of demand growth, while Singapore saw a seasonal slowdown. Meanwhile, 4Q16 take-up dropped y-o-y in all three China Tier 1 cities. Shanghai s CBD volumes were impacted by high CBD rentals, a ban on registration of new P2P lenders, and more companies becoming cost-cautious. Tenants opted to renew in Beijing in anticipation of new supply in the CBD over the next decade, while fewer units available in the core areas of Guangzhou impacted activity. Sydney continues to lead office rental growth Asia Pacific rents grew 0.7% q-o-q and 2.3% y-o-y on average. The strongest performers over the last year were Sydney (22%) due to a lack of large blocks of space, and Melbourne (13%), supported by positive leasing activity and competition for space. Hong Kong recorded the strongest growth in Asia and was closely followed by Osaka. Weakest annual results were seen in Perth, despite benefitting from higher commodity prices in 4Q16, and Singapore, although the decline slowed partly due to seasonal factors and a brief stabilisation as current low rents attracted some relocations. * This article is based on JLL(2017), Growth on track as Asia Pacific surges ahead, Asia Pacific Property Digest Q4 2016, JLL

23 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 F&B remains key demand driver Landlords in China s major markets are looking to gain a competitive edge and improve footfall by utilising trendy retailers or pop-up stores. F&B operators remained active in seeking retail space, while sports brands also expanded. Demand in Hong Kong was underpinned by cosmetics and activewear retailers taking advantage of declining rents to lock in leases. Retailers in Singapore continued to consolidate and also focussed on their online presence, targeting consumers who prefer to buy online while using their physical stores as pick-up points. Conditions in the Australian leasing market softened slightly in 4Q16 given that a number of retailers entered into administration. English Version 3PLs and e-commerce firms driving demand Third-party logistics (3PLs) firms continued to drive demand in the Asia Pacific logistics market in 4Q16. Retailers and manufacturers expanded into some of the vacant space previously occupied by 3PLs in Hong Kong which have relocated to cut costs. In Singapore, leasing demand remained subdued because of the challenging trade environment. Occupier take-up was robust in Australia in 4Q16; in contrast to the prevailing trend, take-up was in existing stock. Recent policy measures impact residential sales activity Stricter policy restrictions were imposed in China and Hong Kong in 4Q16, denting residential sales. Hong Kong raised stamp duties on purchases in November while many Chinese cities introduced a range of cooling measures including higher down payments for non-commodity homes. Slower sales momentum in China s Tier 1 markets was also impacted by less new supply. In Singapore, sales volumes in prime districts rose from the same period a year earlier as market sentiment remained positive. Quarterly leasing conditions remained generally in line with recent quarters as reduced housing allowances and fewer expat employees continued to impact demand in many markets. Continued appetite for real estate Investment volumes finished the year on a high note, with volumes for the whole year rising 5% from the 2015 level to USD 130 billion. The full-year performance was lifted by strong performances in core markets such as China, Singapore and South Korea. China s strong finish saw it supplant Japan as the largest market by volume, with total sales of USD 34.4 billion. Expert s Column In 4Q16, commercial investment volumes rose 21% y-o-y to USD 43.4 billion, bolstered by record quarters in China (USD 15.5 billion) and South Korea (USD 7.4 billion), as well as strong activity in Japan, as buyers aimed to close deals before the year-end. Australia saw a weaker performance y-o-y with owners holding on to stock given the limited reinvestment opportunities. Cross-border investors remained active through 2016, accounting for more than a third of total investment volumes. Intra-regional purchaser transactions still dominated and accounted for about 54% of cross-border transactions, while the remainder were inter-regional purchaser transactions. Office capital values maintain growth trajectory There was a mixed performance for capital values across sectors and markets in the region. In the office sector, Asia Pacific quarterly capital value growth moved higher by 1.2% in aggregate in 4Q16. Melbourne was the regional outperformer with capital values rising nearly 10% q-o-q. Strong growth was also recorded in Hong Kong (+3.1% q-o-q), Osaka (+2.8%) and Sydney (+2.8%). Jakarta capital values slid the furthest followed by Singapore office leasing volumes expected to hold up A strong result for leasing volumes in 4Q16 helped lift the full-year results for 2016, which were down only 2% from the previous year s level. Even though we expect a larger volume of supply in 2017, lingering uncertainty surrounding the economic and political backdrop is expected to keep gross leasing volumes relatively in line with 2016 (-5% to 0% growth). Although aggregate conditions are likely to be generally stable, office leasing performance will continue to be varied as local market drivers may diverge. We have moved up our short-term forecast for rent growth in the core areas of Hong Kong and Osaka on sustained demand and tight vacancy. We have observed that some landlords in Hong Kong are willing to renew leases at below market rents in order to maintain a low vacancy environment and as such, are being aggressive on their rental stance for vacant space.

24 Korea Appraisal Board 24 Rental Property Clocks, 4Q16 Figure 1: Office Rental & Capital Value Changes Yearly % Changes, Q Rental Value Capital Values Figures relate to the major submarket in each city Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), 4Q15 Figure 3: Rental Property Clocks, Q Grade A Office Tokyo, Auckland Hong Kong Sydney Melbourne Hong Kong Manila Tokyo Shanghai Beijing Manila Bangkok Seoul Jakarta Singapore Beijing Shanghai, Seoul Jakarta Kuala Lumpur USD Billion Figure 2: Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment S130 bill 5% y-o-y Japan China Australia Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Other Figures refer to transactions over USD 5million in office, retail, hotels and industrial Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), 4Q15 Prime Retail Shanghai, Auckland Guangzhou Beijing Tokyo^ Expert s Column Manial Wellington Sydney, Melbourne Osaka Bangkok Canberra Bengaluru Ho Chi Ming City Growth Slowing Rents Rising Delhi, Chennai Mumbai Rents Falling Decline Slowing Perth Brisbane Adelaide Taipei Hanoi Sin gapore Guangzhou Wellington Bangkok, jakarta, Manila, Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Delhi Growth Slowing Rents Rising Bengaluru Melbourne*, Chennai *Regional ^High Street Shops/Multi-level High Street Rents Falling Decline Slowing Sydney*, SE Queensland* Hong Kong^ Singapore Prime Residential Industrial Shanghai Guangzhou Jakarta Hong Kong Tokyo, Beijing, Auckland Bangkok Manila Beijing Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong, Singapore Wellington Manila Sydney Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Singapore (Logistics), Singapore (Business Park) Meldourne, Shanghai Kuala Lumpur *For Luxurious Residential Properties *Logistics space(hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Greater Tokyo)

25 KAB 오피스리포트 프라임급오피스 ( 국문판 ) Q. Vol.6 프라임급오피스시장동향 물류부동산시장동향과전망 아시아, 태평양지역상업용부동산시장동향 Q. Vol.1

26 발행인 변성렬 발행일 2017년 5월 8일 발행처 한국감정원 KAB부동산연구원연구개발실시장분석연구부 대구광역시동구이노밸리로 291 ( 신서동 919-2) 홈페이지 전화 팩스 편집인 채미옥 기획 편집책임 민철홍 (k25838@kab.co.kr) 디자인 인쇄 제이에스프린팅

27 KAB 부동산연구원은 1989년한국감정원의감정평가연수원으로설립되어현재에이르기까지감정평가기법연구, 부동산통계지표개발과정부의부동산정책지원을비롯하여부동산컨설팅등부동산분야전반에걸쳐폭넓고깊이있는연구를통하여국가경제발전에기여하고있습니다.

28 프라임급오피스임대시장 공급및매매시장 경제동향 지표설명 서울임대시장 서울스타일별임대시장 서울 분당권역별임대시장 지방임대시장 오피스공급시장 오피스매매시장 금리 신설법인및부도법인 기업경기실사지수 지역별취업자수

29 2017.1Q. Vol.6 Contents 41 물류부동산시장동향과전망 46 전문가칼럼 물류부동산현황 물류창고의분포및핫스팟 수도권물류부동산시장동향 수도권물류부동산임대료동향 수도권물류부동산소재지가수준 물류부동산시장전망 해외상업용부동산시장동향 ( 아시아태평양지역 )

30 Korea Appraisal Board 30 지표설명 대상오피스 Prime Office 총 72 개동 서울권역별 (CBD, GBD, YBD, ETC) 총 58 개동 분당 4 개동 CBD 21 동 ETC 5 동 부산 7 개동 인천송도 3 개동 YBD 11 동 Prime Office 기준 : - 서울 : 건축연면적 33,000 m2이상오피스빌딩 - 분당, 부산, 인천송도 : 건축연면적 16,500 m2이상 인천 3 동 GBD 21 동 투자지표 지표구분 부산 7 동 분당 4 동 공실률 임대료 프라임급오피스임대시장 공실률 (%) = (A: 건축연면적, V: 공실면적 ) 투자수익률투자수익률 (T) = 소득수익률 (I) + 자본수익률 (C) 임대료 ( 원 / m2 ) = (RA: 임대계약면적, R: 임대료 ) 빌딩별소득수익률 (I) =, 빌딩별자본수익률 (C) = (NOI: 순영업소득, V 0 : 기초자산가치, V 1 : 기말자산가치 ) 세부권역구분기준 지역건축연수역세권광대로 구분 서울 상세구분 CBD 종로구, 중구 GBD 강남구, 서초구 YBD 영등포구 ETC 3개권역외서울지역 분당 분당구서현동, 구미동, 수내동 부산 연제구, 부산진구, 중구, 금정구 인천송도 연수구송도동 10년이하 당해연도-신축년도가 10년이내 20년이하 20년이내 20년초과 20년초과 초역세권 지하철역과의거리가 200m이내 그외 광대로접면 도로접면조건이광대로 그외

31 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 프라임급오피스임대시장 프라임급오피스임대시장의보다정확한투자지표생산을위하여 `17년 1분기표본을재설계하여국토부에서발표하는임대동향조사와표본을일치시켰으며, 그에따라기존에발표된시장지표와연속성이단절되었음. 따라서 `17년 1분기프라임오피스투자지표는신규표본의기초조사 (`16년 4분기 ) 결과대비변화로설명하였고 `16년 4분기까지의통계는기존의프라임오피스빌딩의조사결과임 ( 참고용 ) 국문판 서울임대시장 프라임급오피스의공실증가로공실률은전분기대비 0.2%p 상승, 임대료는전분기대비보합, 투자수익률은 1.70% 기록 공실률 : 10.8% ( 전분기대비 0.2%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 25.0 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 투자수익률 : 1.70% 공실률수준은지역간이동이활발한가운데 YBD 와 CBD 의프라임급빌딩에대한공실률상승이서울전체공실률상승에반영되며전분 기대비 0.2.%p 상승한 10.8% 수준 (`16 년 4 분기공실률 : 10.6%) YBD, CBD 권역을중심으로대기업계열사이전, 사옥등신규공급으로서울평균공실률상승 프라임급오피스임대시장 임대료는서울 CBD 지역이상승한한면 YBD, GBD 권역의임대료가전분기대비보합세를유지하며서울전체임대료는 25.0천원 / m2으로조사됨 `17년 1분기투자수익률은서울평균 1.70% 이며, 시장권역중 GBD의투자수익률 (1.72%) 이가장높게나타났고, 그다음 CBD(1.69%), YBD(1.66%) 순으로나타남 서울공실률및임대료추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 우 : 임대료좌 : 공실률 서울전체서울전체 CBD CBD YBD YBD GBD GBD 서울투자수익률추이단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 서울전체 CBD YBD GBD 구분 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q 서울전체 (0.2) () 1.70 CBD (0.7) (1.4) 1.69 YBD (2.0) () 1.66 GBD () () 1.72 주 : 공실률, 수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %)

32 Korea Appraisal Board 32 서울스타일별임대시장 스타일지표건축물고유의속성인건축연한과입지속성인역세권및도로접근성을기준으로빌딩별그룹화를통해해당그룹별공실률, 임대료, 투자수익률의추이를분석 17 년 1 분기프라임급오피스의스타일별지표분석결과, 내용연수는 20 년이하오피스의임대료가낮고, 투자수익률은 10 년이하오피스가상대적으로높게나타남. 역세권지표의경우초역세권소재빌딩은공실률이그외권역의오피스대비 3.6%p 낮고임대료는 6.2 천원 / m2높았음. 광대로접면유무에따른오피스는광대로접면소재빌딩의공실률이 1.3%p 가량낮고, 임대료는 4.9 천원 / m2높음 내용연수 `17. 1Q 건축물내용연수별지표비교 내용연수 : 해당연도 - 신축연도 프라임급오피스임대시장 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) 구분 `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q 10년이하 (0.2) () 년이하 () () 년초과 (0.6) () 1.64 주 : 공실률, 수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 내용연수별공실률은 10년이하 11.5%, 20년이하 9.9%, 20년초과 11.0% 로 20년이하건축물의공실률이낮은모습을보였으며, 10년이하의건축물이전분기대비 0.2% 상승하여가장높은공실률을보이고있음 임대료는 10년이하 27.7천원 / m2, 20년이하와 20년초과유형의임대료는각각 22.6천원 / m2, 24.7천원 / m2으로 10년이하빌딩의임대료가상대적으로높은수준을보였으며, 20년이하빌딩의임대료수준이가장낮게나타남 투자수익률은 10년이하 1.74% 로가장높게나타났고, 다음으로 20년이하 1.73%, 20년초과유형이 1.64% 로나타남 신규빌딩은신규임차인유치로인해공실률수준이상대적으로높은반면, 높은임대료영향으로투자수익률은상대적으로높게나타남 서울내용연수별공실률및임대료추이 서울내용연수별투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 0.50 ( 우 ) 임대료 : 10년이하 20년이하 20년초과 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 10년이하 20년이하 20년초과 10년이하 20년이하 20년초과

33 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 역세권 `17. 1Q 역세권지표비교초역세권 : 지하철역과의거리가 200m 이내 구분 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q 초역세권 (0.6) () 1.67 그외 (-0.1) () 1.73 * 공실률, 수익률은 %( 전기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 초역세권권역의프라임급오피스는그외권역의프라임급오피스보다공실률이상대적으로낮았으며 (-3.6%p), 전분기대비공실률은초역세권빌딩 0.6%p 상승, 그외권역 0.1%p 하락 투자수익률은초역세권권역이 1.67%, 그외권역은 1.73% 로 6%p 격차가발생하였으나임대료는초역세권권역프라임급오피스가상대적으로 6.2천원 / m2높은수준을보여접근성이임대료에큰영향을미치는것으로분석됨 초역세권권역의프라임급오피스는상대적으로높은임대료수준에도불구하고입지가유리한우량물건을선호하는임차인들의심리를반영하여낮은공실률을유지하고있으며앞으로도초역세권권역의프라임급오피스의인기는지속될것으로전망 서울역세권별공실률및임대료추이 서울역세권별투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q ( 우 ) 임대료 : ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 초역세권초역세권 그외그외 초역세권 그외 국문판프라임급오피스임대시장 광대로접면 `16. 4Q 광대로접면지표비교 광대로접면 : 도로접면조건이광대로 ( 도로폭 35m이상 ) 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) 구분 `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%p) `16.4Q `17.1Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q 광대로접면 (0.3) () 1.69 그외 (0.1) (0.1) 1.72 주 : 공실률, 수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 광대로접면에입지한프라임급오피스의경우그외프라임급오피스에비해공실률은 1.3%p 낮은수준이며, 임대료는 4.9천원 / m2높은수준, 투자수익률은광대로접면프라임오피스가 3%p 낮은수준을기록 광대로접면빌딩의투자수익률이그외오피스에비해높은것이통상적이었으나 `16.4Q에이어역전현상이지속 서울광대로접면여부공실률및임대료추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q ( 우 ) 임대료 : 광대로접면 그외 ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 광대로접면 그외 서울광대로접면여부투자수익률추이 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 광대로접면 그외

34 Korea Appraisal Board 34 서울 분당권역별임대시장 CBD 공실률 : 11.3% ( 전분기대비 0.7%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 31.1 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 1.4% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.69% CBD 권역내프라임급오피스는신규공급증가에따른영향으로공실률이전분기대비 0.7%p 상승한 11.3%, 임대료는 31.1천원 / m2으로전분기대비 1.4% 상승 수송동수송스퀘어증축완료및삼성계열사통합이전에따른공실률상승 아모레퍼시픽, 하나은행, SK건설등대기업이전수요가예상됨에따라 CBD 권역의공실률은당분간상승세를유지할것으로전망 투자수익률은전반적인공실증가에따른소득수익률하락분의영향으로서울평균대비 1%p 낮은 1.69% 를기록 프라임급오피스임대시장 CBD 공실률및임대료추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q CBD 임대료 CBD 공실률 CBD 투자수익률추이 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q CBD 투자수익률 YBD 공실률 : 10.9% ( 전분기대비 2.0%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 22.9 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 투자수익률 : 1.66% YBD 권역의공실률은대기업유입에대한효과로전분기대비 2.0%p 상승한 10.9% 수준 대형증권사의도심권역으로의본격적인이주로인한임차수요감소영향등으로공실률이상승하였으며, 향후 `17년상반기 K타워, `18년하반기교직원공제회신사옥, `20년파크원등잇따른대형오피스신축이예정되어있어 YBD 임대시장변화에영향을줄것으로예상됨 여의도전경련빌딩과 IFC 빌딩의 LG그룹계열사가 `17년하반기마곡 LG사이언스파크로이주예정 임대료는전분기대비보합세를유지하였고, 향후임차인이동에따른공실증가가발생할경우임대료하락에영향을미칠수있을것으로판단됨 투자수익률은서울지역타권역대비가장낮은수준인 1.66% 를기록

35 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 YBD 공실률및임대료추이 YBD 투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q YBD 임대료 YBD 공실률 YBD 투자수익률 국문판 GBD 공실률 : 5.8% ( 전분기대비보합 ) 17년 1분기 GBD 권역공실률은 5.8% 로전분기대비보합세를보이며, 서울전권역중가장낮은공실률수준을유지 파르나스타워준공이후신규프라임오피스의공급의부재와더불어삼성생명서초타워의삼성계열사이전영향에따라다른권역대비상대적으로낮은공실률이유지됨 올해상반기서초동마제스타시티준공과삼성동쿠팡본사인력의타워730 이전계획 (`18년상반기 ) 에따라향후공실률변동에영향을미칠것으로예상됨 임대료 : 25.0 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 투자수익률 : 1.72% 프라임급오피스임대시장 임대료는 25.0천원 /m 2 으로전분기대비보합세이며, 향후공실률변동이예상됨에따라임대료가조정될것으로판단됨 투자수익률은 1.72% 로 CBD(1.69%), YBD(1.66%) 권역보다높은수준 GBD 공실률및임대료추이 GBD 투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q GBD 임대료 GBD 공실률 GBD 투자수익률

36 Korea Appraisal Board 36 분당 공실률 : 18.4% ( 전분기대비 1.8%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 16.9 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.7% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.88% 분당의프라임급오피스공실률은 18.4% 로전분기대비 1.8%p 상승 일부표본빌딩의대규모공실발생의영향으로공실률상승, 표본물건별공실률수준이상이함 임대료수준은 16.9천원 /m 2 으로전분기대비 0.7% 상승 투자수익률은 1.88% 수준을기록 분당공실률및임대료추이 분당투자수익률추이 프라임급오피스임대시장 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 분당임대료 분당공실률 분당투자수익률 지방임대시장 부산 공실률 : % ( 전분기대비보합 ) 임대료 : 8.3 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 투자수익률 : 1.58% '17년 1분기부산의프라임급오피스공실률은 % 로전분기대비보합세유지 지역산업경기둔화로물류및제조업기업들의조직축소등에따라향후프라임급오피스의공실증가가예상됨 임대료수준은전분기대비보합수준인 8.3천원 /m 2, 투자수익률은 1.58% 를기록 공실률과임대료는보합세를보이고있으나향후지역경기여건에따라소폭변동될가능성이있음

37 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 부산공실률및임대료추이 부산투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q 인천송도 부산임대료부산공실률부산투자수익률 공실률 : 42.1% ( 전분기대비 6.2%p 하락 ) 공실률은전분기대비 6.2%p 하락한 42.1% 로여전히높은수준 임대료수준은 8.1 천원 /m 2 으로전분기대비동일한수준을유지 송도의프라임급오피스중공공기관소유물건과대기업사옥의경우공실없이임대중이나, 이들을제외한 IBS빌딩, 애니오션빌딩등의임대빌딩은임차인유치에어려움을겪고있어공실률이높은수준 최근송도프라임급오피스의하층부에리테일임차유형이증가하며공실률이다소하락함 임대료 : 8.1 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 국문판프라임급오피스임대시장 부영그룹의포스코건설송도사옥소유권취득과 B5 블록의신규오피스추가공급등이예정됨에따라송도의공실률수준은당분간유지될가능성이높음

38 Korea Appraisal Board 38 공급및매매시장 오피스공급시장 `17 년 1 분기서울지역의오피스공급물량은총 10 개동, 공급면적은 275,963 m2이며, 이중프라임급오피스공급물량은 3 개동 ( 연면적 232,663 m2 ) `17년 1분기오피스건물은전년동기대비 41.2% 감소한 10개동으로나타났으나 ( 사용승인일기준 ), 프라임급오피스의공급영향으로공급면적은전년동기대비 57.8% 증가한 275,963m2로나타남 서울지역오피스신규공급현황 기간 분기 2 분기 3 분기 4 분기 1 분기 2 분기 3 분기 4 분기 1 분기 공급및매매시장 공급건수 ( 동 ) 공급면적 ( m2 ) 94, ,420 43, , ,847 38, , , ,963 `17년 1분기권역별신규오피스공급물량은 YBD 1건, GBD 3건, ETC 6건이었으며, 신규공급된프라임급건물은 YBD 권역의 SK증권빌딩 ( 연면적 47,362m2 ), ETC 권역의롯데월드타워 (14 38층및 층, 오피스면적기준 104,627m2 ) 와 Tower730( 연면적 80,673m2 ) 임권역별프라임급오피스건물의공급규모및예정일정권역빌딩명연면적 ( m2 ) 층규모준공예정일 CBD 하나은행본사 54, 층 / 지하 6 층 2017 년 6 월 센트로폴리스 140, 층 / 지하 8 층 2018 년 6 월 KTCU 빌딩 83, 층 / 지하 4 층 2018 년 YBD Parc , 층 / 지하 7 층미정 Parc , 층 / 지하 7 층미정 롯데칠성 379, 년이후 GBD 서초마제스타시티 82, 층 / 지하 7 층 2017 년 6 월 현대모터스본사 928, ~2020 년 ETC 아크로서울포레스트 (D Tower) 98, 층 / 년 인천송도송도 1 3 공구 B 블럭 230, 층 / 지하 5 층미정 출처 : JLL 등 ( 인터넷기사포함 )

39 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 오피스매매시장 `17 년 1 분기서울지역의상업 업무용빌딩의매매거래량 * 은 22,066 건 (1,649 천m2 ) 이며, 오피스매매거래는 25 건, 거래면적은총 111,305 m2로나타남 * `16 년 12 월 15 일상업 업무용실거래정보가공개됨에따라, 부동산거래통계공표자료의실거래정보에서일반오피스건물의매매사례현황을파악함 서울상업 업무용빌딩의매매거래는 6,245건 (909,880m2) 이고일반오피스빌딩의매매거래는 25건으로전년동기대비 34.2% 감소 ( 면적 기준 58.1% 감소 ) 하였으며, 권역별로는 CBD 1건, GBD 15건, ETC 9건임 서울지역상업 업무용거래현황 기간 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 상업 업무용 11,154 13,776 14,200 13,639 12,550 12,747 15,804 14,118 22,066 매매거래 7,010 8,787 7,888 7,560 6,608 7,468 8,650 7,568 6,245 오피스매매 평균매매거래가격은m2당 582만원수준으로, 권역별로는 GBD 541만원 / m2, ETC 609만원 / m2임 주요오피스매매거래사례현황 권역 빌딩명 연면적 ( m2 ) 층규모 매매금액 인수 국문판공급및매매시장 GBD 일송빌딩 20, 층 / 지하 6 층 1,272 억원 KTB 자산운용 GBD 한국교육방송공사 (EBS) 도곡사옥 18, 층 / 지하 3 층 733 억원 한웰 GBD 바른빌딩 11, 층 / 지하 6 층 802 억원이지스자산운용 GBD 메트로빌딩 ( 삼성생명 ) 13, 층 / 지하 1 층 861 억원 마스턴자산운용 ( 안젤로고든 ) ETC SK 네트웍스성내사옥 7,635 8 층 / 지하 5 층 436 억원한섬글로벌 공급현황 거래현황 단위 : m2 단위 : 동 단위 : m2 단위 : 동 600, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 84,135 94, , , , , ,000 76,501 67,970 96, ,305 43,534 38, Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 공급면적 ( m2 ) 공급건수 ( 동 ) 매매면적 매매건수 ( 동 ) 주 : 각수치는 `17 년 3 월말기준자료 : 세움터 주 : 각수치는 `17 년 3 월말기준자료 : RTMS

40 Korea Appraisal Board 40 경제동향 금리 콜금리는 `17년 1분기동안큰변동없이 1.23% 수준을유지 국고채금리는미국의금리상승에영향을받아동반상승하여 1.71% 기록 국내경기의불확실성이지속되며자금조달어려움증가로채권스프레드는 0.50%p를기록, 향후스프레드규모는점차상승할것으로예상 신설법인및부도법인 신설법인수는지속적인증가추세로전년동기간대비 (`17년 2월누계기준 ) 7.89% 증가 `17년 2월신설법인수는 8,237개로 `16년증감을반복하다전년동월대비 19.39% 증가 부도법인수는최근감소추세에서점차증가하는모습 6 ( 단위 : %) ,000 ( 단위 : 건 ) ,000 6, 경제동향 '11.03M '12.03M '13.03M '14.03M '3M '16.03M '17.03M 회사채-국고채 ( 우축 ) 무담보콜금리 국고채 (3년) 회사채 (AA-) 4, , '11.02M '12.02M '13.02M '14.02M '2M '16.02M '17.02M 부도법인 ( 우축 ) 신설법인 ( 좌축 ) 출처 : 한국은행 출처 : 중소기업청, 금융결제원 기업경기실사지수 전 ( 全 ) 산업기업경기실사지수 (BSI) 는 78로 `16년 4월부터점차상승세를보이고있음 `17년 3월부동산 임대업의기업경기실사지수 ( 업황실적기준 ) 는경기심리가위축되는모습을보이며 `17년 3월 76을기록 건설업은 `16년 4분기경기심리가다소위축된이후 `17년 3월 70을기록하며소폭개선되는모습 지역별취업자수 `17년 2월기준전국취업자수는 2,579만명으로전년동월대비 1.46% 증가 수도권의취업자수는 1,307만명으로전년동월대비 0.86% 증가 수도권사무직종사자수는 256만명으로전년동월대비 1.31% 증가 (`16년 2월 252만 ) ( 전년동월대비증감률, 단위 : %) 40-1 '11.03M '12.03M '13.03M '14.03M '3M '16.03M '17.03M '11.02M '12.02M '13.02M '14.02M '2M '16.02M '17.02M 전산업 건설업 부동산 임대업 전국 수도권 출처 : 한국은행 출처 : 통계청

41 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 물류부동산시장동향과전망 물류부동산현황 국내외투자자나리츠등에서큰관심을가지고있는물류부동산분야는꾸준히성장하고있으며, 정부의물류부동산에대한투자촉진정책에따라물류산업발전에긍정적인영향을미칠것으로예상됨 16년 4분기본리포트에서설문조사한상업용부동산투자유망자산전망에관한결과에서는물류시설이투자유망자산이라는응답률 (27.1%) 이두번째로높게나타났으며, `15년실시한동일한설문조사결과에서도유사한결과 (29% 대 ) 가나타남, 물류부동산의경우 2년연속유망자산으로평가됨 투자유망자산전망 35.0% 3% 25.0% 2% 16.7% 29.2% 27.1% 국문판물류부동산시장동향과전망 % 12.5% 1% 5.0% % 8.3% 4.2% 2.1% % 대형업무시설 중소규모업무시설 리테일 오피스텔 호텔 물류시설 지식산업센터 기타 자료 : 한국감정원 KAB 부동산연구원전문가설문조사결과 (2016 년 ) `16년 WTO에따르면전세계적인저상장, 원자재가격하락등으로무역액이크게줄어들고있으며, 한국의무역액도 2년연속 1조달러이하를기록할것으로전망 특히미국의도널트트럼프대통령의자국우선주의정책기조하에전세계적으로지역주의가예고되고있어, 세계무역은더욱둔화되고경제침체로연결될것이라는우려가제기되고있음 또한최근사드와관련된중국의경제적보복조치로대중국교역이악화됨에따라물류부동산의대외적여건은어느때보다어려운시기임 하지만국내소셜커머스업체의당일, 익일배송서비스확대로수도권물류창고를임차, 매입하는사례가늘어나고있으며, 향후에도배송관련서비스확대에따라물류시설에대한수요가지속될전망 리츠의경우물류센터에대한투자를적극적으로늘리고있으며, 완공된실물자산을사들이는것뿐만아니라개발에도나서고있음 국토교통부는물류와리츠분야업무협약 (`15년 8월한국리츠협회 - 한국통합물류협회 ) 과투자촉진정책 (`16년 2월리츠산업경쟁력제고방안 ) 등물류부동산에대한투자활성화를위한노력을기울이고있음

42 Korea Appraisal Board 42 물류창고의분포및핫스팟 `17 년 3 월현재국토교통부에신고된국내물류창고는총 6,105 개이며, 주로인천과부산등주요항만과수도권외곽지역에집중되어있음 시도별물류창고비율 물류부동산시장동향과전망 세종특별자치시대구광역시대전광역시울산광역시광주광역시제주특별자치도서울특별시광원도충청북도전라북도충청남도경상북도전라남도부산광역시인ㅊ넌광역시경상남도경기도 % 5.0% 1% % 2% 25.0% 3% 자료 : 국가물류통합정보센터 국내물류창고의 40.7% 는수도권에집중되어있음 ( 경기도 27.4%, 인천 10.6%, 서울 2.7%) 인천과부산의물류창고시설은해외수출입물량을담당하는컨테이너관련시설, 보세창고, 유류창고등이주를이루고있으며, 국내물동량과관련된상온창고는수도권외곽을중심으로집중분포하고있음 수도권의물류부동산집중은배후시장과의접근성과노동력수급의용이성등에따른영향으로분석됨 물류창고분포 물류창고핫스팟 자료 : 한국감정원, 국가물류통합정보센터

43 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 수도권물류부동산시장동향 최근국내물류부동산시장은 3PL( 위탁및아웃소싱 ) 로의전환흐름과함께대형물류창고및시설이수도권및대도시를중심으로건설되고있음. 주요투자자와임차인은대도시권역의교통망이용이하여수송여건이우수한지역을선호하고있으며신규대형물류창고와낙후된물류창고의양극화가나타남 수도권물류창고는최종소비지인서울을중심으로분포하고있음 서울을중심점으로지역 ( 북방과남방 ) 및소요시간으로권역을나누어임대료수준과지가수준을분석함 ( 소요시간 : 30분, 60 분, 90분, 120분 ) 권역구분은도로망을기준으로해당시간내에법정최고속도로통행시도달가능한공간적범위로 GIS 공간분석을활용하여도출하였음 N(North) 과 S(South) 는서울중심점을기준으로북방과남방을의미하며, 숫자는서울중심점을중심으로해당권역으로자동차로이동할때소요되는시간 ( 분 ) ( 예 : S30= 서울중심점으로부터남쪽으로 30분이내로소요되는지역 ) 수도권물류부동산시장권역 국문판물류부동산시장동향과전망 수도권물류부동산임대료동향 물류창고의권역별임대료수준은최대소비지인서울을중심점으로거래멀어질수록임대료수준이상대적으로낮아지는거리조락효과가나타남. 북방과남방을비교하여같은시간및권역내임대료수준은북방이상대적으로높은수준을보임 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, 서울인천 S30 S60 S90 S120 N30 N60 N90 N120

44 Korea Appraisal Board 44 수도권의물류부동산시장은인력수급의용이성, 지가, 접근성의차이로인하여임대료의차이가나타남. 30분대권역은서울을제외하고임대료가가장높은권역으로임차인과투자자들이가장선호하는지역 모든권역에서임대료수준은전년동분기보다다소하락 우량물건선호현상으로상대적으로낙후된수준의물류창고는임차인유치를위하여임대료를낮게책정 같은소요시간권역대의남방과북방의임대료수준은북방권역이남방권역보다다소높게나타났는데, 이는남방권역에물류창고가집중됨에따른시장경쟁에의한현상임 권역명 해당지역 임대료수준 ( 원 /m 2 ) 서울 서울전역 18,182~10,000 인천 인천전역 10,606~8,182 S30 부천, 광명, 시흥북부, 안양, 군포, 과천, 의왕, 성남, 하남, 용인북부, 수원북부, 광주북부 10,606~7,576 S60 S90 S120 시흥남부, 안산, 수원, 화성, 오산, 평택, 용인, 안성, 이천, 광주남부, 양평서부, 여주서부, 안성북부, 천안북부 천안, 당진, 아산, 서산, 진천, 음성, 예산북부, 연기북부, 청원북부, 충주, 원주서부, 횡성서부, 양평동부, 여주동부, 홍성, 예산남부, 공주남부, 청양북부, 대전북부, 청원남부, 보은서부, 괴산북부, 제천북부, 횡성서부 10,000~5,303 6,061~4,545 6,667~3,333 N30 김포동부, 고양, 의정부, 양주남부, 남양주서부 14,697~8,485 물류부동산시장동향과전망 N60 김포서부, 파주남부, 양주북부, 남양주동부, 동두천, 포천, 가평 12,121~5,455 N90 연천, 철원남부, 춘천서부, 홍천서부 6,364~5,455 N120 화천, 춘천북부, 홍천중부 6,061~4,545 주 : 상온창고를기준으로함자료 : 한국감정원 KAB 부동산연구원 수도권물류부동산소재지가수준 물류창고소재권역별지가수준은서울이가장높은 363 만원 /m 2, S30 권역이 185 만원 /m 2 으로뒤를이었음. 같은권역에서도도시지역이도시지역외에위치한물류창고대비 1.3 배 ~2 배가량지가가높게나타남 400 ( 단위 : 만원 /m 2 ) 서울 인천 S30 S60 S90 S120 N30 N60 N90 도시지역 도시지역외

45 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 서울을중심으로거리가멀어질수록, 도시지역외지역일수록자산가치는상대적으로낮게평가됨 소요시간이동일한권역이지만남방권역에속한시설이북방권역에속한시설과비교할때상대적으로지가수준이높게평가되었는데신규조성된우량물류시설이남방권역에더많이입지하고있기때문임 17년한해물류시설의공급이가장많았던 S30, S60 등인기권역을중심으로물류부동산소재지가수준은꾸준히상승할것으로예상 권역명 해당지역 평균지가 ( 원 /m 2 ) 도시지역도시지역외 서울 서울전역 인천 인천전역 S30 부천, 광명, 시흥북부, 안양, 군포, 과천, 의왕, 성남, 하남, 용인북부, 수원북부, 광주북부 S60 시흥남부, 안산, 수원, 화성, 오산, 평택, 용인, 안성, 이천, 광주남부, 양평서부, 여주서부, 안성북부, 천안북부 S90 천안, 당진, 아산, 서산, 진천, 음성, 예산북부, 연기북부, 청원북부, 충주, 원주서부, 횡성서부, 양평동부, 여주동부, S120 홍성, 예산남부, 공주남부, 청양북부, 대전북부, 청원남부, 보은서부, 괴산북부, 제천북부, 횡성서부 N30 김포동부, 고양, 의정부, 양주남부, 남양주서부 N60 김포서부, 파주남부, 양주북부, 남양주동부, 동두천, 포천, 가평 - 34 N90 연천, 철원남부, 춘천서부, 홍천서부 - 14 주 1) 도시지역, 도시지역외의구분기준은용도지역을기준으로함 ( 도시지역 : 주거, 상업, 공업, 녹지지역 / 도시지역외 : 관리, 농림, 자연환경보전지역 ) 2) 상온창고를기준으로함자료 : 한국감정원 KAB 부동산연구원 (2015 년말기준 ) 물류부동산시장전망 `17 년물류센터의직접개발이활발해지고시장규모는더욱커질것이며, 국내외투자자들의적극적인투자가예상됨 국문판물류부동산시장동향과전망 서울및인천지역에신규조성중인물류단지 * 가 18년내에들어설예정이며덕평IC, 양지IC 등물류센터가지속적으로공급되고있는상황에서수도권물류부동산시장의경쟁은더욱치열해질것으로전망 `16년물류부동산투자시장은해외투자자들보다국내투자자의주도의투자가이루어졌으며올해도유사한움직임이지속될것으로전망됨 그동안국내투자자들은물류시설에대한수익률은높지만다른투자물건에비해리스크가크고, 우량물건은해외투자자가선점하여투자의어려움이있었음. 하지만지속적인높은수익률의보장으로인해국내투자자들이직접개발에참여하는등적극적인투자가늘어나고있음 리츠및펀드설정액 1,200 1, 물류펀드 리츠 자료 : 금융투자협회 물류부동산에대한투자자들의높은관심은투자자산의포트폴리오다양화와투자수익을확보할수있는대체상품으로인식되고있기때문임 최근오피스빌딩의매매가격은지속적으로상승하고있으나, 공실률증가로인한투자수익률하락에대체할상품으로물류시설에대한관심도가높아짐 특히물류부동산투자의경우간접투자 ( 리츠, 부동산펀드 ) 방식으로도지속성장할것으로예상됨 15년 12월기준물류시설을기초자산으로하는리츠는 11개로자산규모는 7,362억원수준이고 `11년대비 29배성장하며그비중은더욱증가할것으로예상됨. 또한물류시설을기초자산으로하는펀드는 37개로자산규모는약 1조 585억원수준이며 `04년대비 35배성장함 * 실수요검증통과후개발을추진중인물류단지로수도권지역에신규조성중인물류단지 4개 ( 경기광주중대 : 21만m2, 이천 : 11만m2, 용인양지 8만m2, 화성장안 32만m2 ) 및 '16년신규지정된물류단지 4개소 ( 경기광주직동, 경기광주오포, 남여주등 ) 18만 2천m2규모

46 Korea Appraisal Board 46 전문가칼럼 * Jones Lang Lasalle, JLL Real Estate Intelligence Service 해외상업용부동산시장동향 ( 아시아태평양지역 ) 임대및투자시장의회복입증 전문가칼럼 AP( 아시아태평양 ) 지역의상업용부동산시장은전례없는불확실성의해였음. 인도델리및호주시드니와같은도시에입지한금융및기술관련기업들은계속해서임차인우위시장이점을누리고있음 중국은기록적인거래실적을보이며상하이가 2016년 4분기에국제투자대상순위에서 1위를차지했으며, 활발한투자활동에힘입어 2016년에상위 5개시장중하나로부상 임대활동은강한인상으로 1 년을마감 2016년 4분기아시아태평양지역의총임대규모는작년동기간대비 23% 증가 AP지역에서두번째로높은판매량을보인시드니에기인하여오스트레일리아지역은 19% 증가하였고, 시드니보다낮은성장률을보였지만퍼스 (Perth) 도견고한상승세 인도의임대규모는전년대비 80% 증가하여 4개의 Tier 1 시장모두에서개선되었으며델리는임대규모의증가율이가장큰것으로기록되었고, 일본도쿄는 2016년에완공된물건을 2018년까지미리임대를주기시작하면서임차인에게더많은옵션을주며임차자가 CBD ( 일본도심중앙 ) 외부에서중심으로이전하여거래가활성화 한편, 상해도심물건은높은도심임대료, 새로운 P2P 대출기관의등록금지등의영향에기인하여중국 Tier 1 도시 ( 총 3개 ) 에서 `16년 4 분기수요는전년동분기대비하락 시드니, 사무실임대료상승을주도 아시아태평양지역의임대료는평균적으로전년동분기대비 0.7%, 전년동기간대비 2.3% 증가 작년에높은상승률을보인곳은사무실공간이부족했던시드니 (22%) 와임대활동호조를보인멜버른 (13%) 이었으며, 아시아에서는홍콩과오사카가높은임대료상승률을기록함 낮은연평균임대료상승률을보인곳은퍼스 (Perth) 와싱가포르로퍼스는 2016년 4분기의물가상승과는반대움직임을보였으며, 계절적요인과더불어낮은임대료가일부오피스재배치를야기하여일시적으로임대시장이안정화되어싱가포르는하락세가둔화 * 이원고는 JLL(2017), Growth on track as Asia Pacific surges ahead, Asia Pacific Property Digest Q4 2016, JLL 에근거하여작성되었음

47 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.6 F&B 는여전히주요수요창출동력 중국의주요시장에서임대인은소매업체또는팝업상점을활용하여경쟁우위를확보하고임차인유치노력을하고있음 홍콩은화장품및활동복판매점이홍콩의임대료하락시점의기회를살려임대차계약을진행하였고, 싱가포르의소매업은소비자들이온라인상점을선호하면서온라인서비스를집중적으로수행 수요를주도하는 3PL 및전자상거래회사 제3자물류 (3PL) 기업은 4분기에아시아태평양물류시장의수요를지속적으로증가시켰음 싱가포르는악화된무역환경때문에임대수요가정체되었고, 호주는점유자들의점유활동이활발했음 최근정책수단은주택매매에영향을미침 중국과홍콩에서는 4분기에엄격한정책규제가부과되어주택매매가감소함. 홍콩은 11월에주택구매시부과되는스탬프세금 (stamp duty) 을올렸으며, 많은중국도시들은주택에대해비싼보증금정책을포함하여다양한시장규제조치를도입 중국 Tier 1 시장의주택매매움직임둔화는신규물건의공급부족의영향을받았으며, 싱가포르프라임지구의주택매매량은시장심리가긍정적으로유지되면서전년도같은기간보다증가함. 분기별임대상황은주택수당감소와외국인직원감소로인해많은수요에지속적으로영향을미침으로써최근 4분기와대체로일치 부동산시장에대한지속적인수요증가 부동산시장투자는 `15년에비해 5% 상승한 1천 3백억달러를기록하였는데중국, 싱가포르, 한국등핵심시장의상승이두드러졌음. 중국시장은 344억달러의매출을기록하였으며일본을제치고아시아최대시장으로부상 2016년 4분기상업용부동산거래규모는전년대비 21% 증가한 434억달러를기록하였음. 매수인들이해가마무리되기전에거래들을마감시키려는노력덕분에중국 (155억달러 ) 과한국 (74억달러 ) 은사상최대실적을기록 호주는부동산소유자들이관망세를보이면서전년대비미미한실적을기록. 해외투자자들은 2016년내내꾸준히활동적이었고총투자규모의 3분의 1이상을차지함. 아시아지역내거래가지배적이었으며국외거래가약 54%, 지역간거래는 46% 를차지 국문판전문가칼럼 오피스자산가치는지속된성장궤도유지 아시아태평양지역의오피스자본가치는 4 분기에 1.2% 상승함. 멜버른은전년동분기대비자본가치가약 10% 상승하였고, 홍콩은전년 동분기대비 3.1%, 오사카는 2.8%, 시드니는 2.8 % 성장함 `17 년오피스임대시장지표는 `16 년과비슷할것으로전망 `17년오피스시장에많은물량이공급될것으로예상되지만경제및정치적환경의불확실성으로인해총임대규모는 `16년과비슷한수준으로유지될것으로예상. 사무실임대성과는현지시장에따라다양한성과를보일것으로전망 홍콩과오사카의오피스는도심지역에서수요가지속적으로유지되어단기임대료를상향조정할것으로예측되며, 주택의경우홍콩은임차인확보를위해시장임대료이하로임대계약을갱신할의향이있음을확인했으며공실에대한임대에적극적인행동을취하고있음이관찰

48 Korea Appraisal Board 48 참고수치자료 Figure 1: Office Rental & Capital Value Changes Yearly % Changes, Q Rental Value Capital Values Figures relate to the major submarket in each city Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q Figure 3: Rental Property Clocks, Q Grade A Office Tokyo, Auckland Hong Kong Sydney Melbourne Hong Kong Manila Tokyo Shanghai Beijing Manila Bangkok Seoul Jakarta Singapore Beijing Shanghai, Seoul Jakarta Kuala Lumpur USD Billion Figure 2: Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment S130 bill 5% y-o-y Japan China Australia Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Other Figures refer to transactions over USD 5million in office, retail, hotels and industrial Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q Prime Retail Shanghai, Auckland Guangzhou Beijing Tokyo^ 전문가칼럼 Manial Wellington Sydney, Melbourne Osaka Bangkok Canberra Bengaluru Ho Chi Ming City Growth Slowing Rents Rising Delhi, Chennai Mumbai Rents Falling Decline Slowing Perth Brisbane Adelaide Taipei Hanoi Sin gapore Guangzhou Wellington Bangkok, jakarta, Manila, Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Delhi Growth Slowing Rents Rising Bengaluru Melbourne*, Chennai *Regional ^High Street Shops/Multi-level High Street Rents Falling Decline Slowing Sydney*, SE Queensland* Hong Kong^ Singapore Prime Residential Industrial Shanghai Guangzhou Jakarta Hong Kong Tokyo, Beijing, Auckland Bangkok Manila Beijing Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong, Singapore Wellington Manila Sydney Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Singapore (Logistics), Singapore (Business Park) Meldourne, Shanghai Kuala Lumpur *For Luxurious Residential Properties *Logistics space(hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Greater Tokyo)

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