Publisher Byun, Sung-ryul Publication Date 2 Aug 2017 Publication Place Market Analysis & Research Dept.,KAB Real Estate Research Institute 291, Innov

Transcription

1 KAB OFFICE REPORT prime office (English Version / 국문판 ) Q. Vol.7 Market Trend Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market Trend of Overseas Commercial Property Markets(Asia-Pacific Region) Q. Vol.1 KAB Real Estate Research Institute

2 Publisher Byun, Sung-ryul Publication Date 2 Aug 2017 Publication Place Market Analysis & Research Dept.,KAB Real Estate Research Institute 291, Innovalleyro (919-2, Sinseodong), Dong-gu, Daegu Metropolitan City 41068, Korea Website http: // phone Fax Editor Chae Mie Oak Planning & Editing Min Chul Hong(k25838@kab.co.kr) Design & Printing JS Printing

3 KAB Real Estate Research Institute was established as a training institute of appraisal and assessment of KAB in It has ever since researched the techniques for appraisal and assessment, developed real estate statistics, and supported the government s real estate policies. Now and in future, this organization will continue contributing to developing the national economy through broad and in-depth research as well as consultation services

4 06 Prime Office Rental Market Explanations of Indicators Office Rental Market of Seoul Office Rental Market by Style in Seoul Office Rental Market by Segment in Seoul Provincial Prime Office Rental Markets 14 Supply and Transaction Market Office Supply Market Office Transation Market 16 Economic Trend Interest Rate Newly Established Corporations and Bankrupt Corporations Business Survey Index The Number of Employees by Area

5 2017.2Q. Vol.7 17 Contents 22 [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market Expert s Column Trends in the domestic tourism industry Trend of Overseas Commercial Property Trands in the Comestic Hotel Industry Hotel Status in Seoul H otel Real Estate Investment Prospect of Hotel Real Estate Markets (Asia-Pacific Region)

6 Korea Appraisal Board 06 Explanations of Indicators Target Offices Total 72 Prime Office Buildings ETC 5 58 Prime Office Buildings in Seoul (including CBD, GBD, YBD, ETC) CBD 21 4 Prime Office Buildings in Bundang 7 Prime Office Buildings in Busan YBD 11 3 Prime Office Buildings in Songdo, Incheon Definition of Prime Office: - Seoul: An office building with more than 33,000 m2 of gross floor area or higher than 21 ground levels Incheon 3 GBD 21 - Bundang, Busan, and Incheon Songdo: 16,500 m2 or wider in gross floor area Investment Indexes Classification of Indexes Busan 7 Bundang 4 Vacancy Rate Rent Fee Prime Office Rental Market Vacancy Rate(%) = Return on Investment (A: Gross Floor Area, V: Vacant Area) Rent Fee (KRW/ m2 ) Return on Investment (T) = Income Yield (I) + Capital Return (C) = (RA: Rented Area, R: Rent Fee) Income Yield by Building (I) = Detailed Criteria Capital Return by Building (C) = (NOI: Net Operating Income, V 0 : Asset Value at the Beginning of the Term, V 1 : Asset Value at the End of the Term) Classification Details Seoul CBD GBD YBD Jongno-gu, Jung-gu Gangnam-gu,Seocho-gu Yeongdeungpo-gu Area ETC Other Areas Expect for Three Areas Above Bundang Busan Songdo, Incheon seohyun-dong, sampyung-dong, gumi-dong, sunae-dong Yeonje-gu, Busanjin-gu, Jung-gu, Geum jeong-gu Songdo-dong Less than 10 years Less than 10 years old from the year of construction completed Age of Building Less than 20 years Less than 20 years old from the year of construction completed More than 20 years More than 20 years old from the year of construction completed Station Influence Area Wide Road Very Strong Station Influence Area Others Connecting Side with Wide Road Others With 200m from a subway station Connection Condition with Road is Connection with Wide Road

7 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Prime Office Rental Market In order to generate more accurate investment indices related to the prime office lease market, the samples from the first quarter of 2017 were redesigned to conform to the samples used in the Lease Trend Survey reports issued by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT). For this reason, the indices in this report lack continuity with the market indices that were previously announced. The statistics for the period up to the fourth quarter of 2016 are based on the existing survey results on prime office buildings (for reference purposes only). English Version Office Rental Market of Seoul The vacancy rate of prime office buildings increased by 2.4%p compared to the previous quarter, while rent increased by 0.4% and the ROI declined by 0.3%p from the previous quarter. Vacancy Rate: 13.2% (2.4%p increase from previous quarter) Rental Price: 25.1 thousand Won/m 2 (0.4% increase from previous quarter) Return on Investment: 1.67% (3%p decrease from previous quarter) With a large number of conglomerates relocating their offices to the city center, the rising vacancy rate of prime office buildings in the major business districts contributed to an increase in overall vacancy rate in Seoul, which increased by 2.4%p from the previous quarter to 13.2% (vacancy rate in Q: 10.8%). The average vacancy rate in Seoul increased due to the affiliates of conglomerates moving into new office buildings, relocating from the major business districts such as GBD, YBD and CBD, etc. Rent climbed up in GBD and YBD and fell slightly in CBD. The average rent rate in Seoul was recorded at KRW 251,000/ m2, which was a 0.4% increase compared to the previous quarter. Prime Office Rental Market The return on investment (ROI) in Q decreased by 3% to 1.67% in Seoul, as a consequence of the decline in the ROI in YBD. Comparing ROI per business district, GBD recorded the highest ROI at 1.90%, followed by CBD (1.85%) and YBD (1.43%). Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul (Unit:%) (Unit: 1,000won/ m2 ) (Unit:%) `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 0.50 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Right: R Left: V Seoul Seoul CBD CBD YBD YBD GBD GBD Seoul CBD YBD GBD Category Vacancy rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/ m2 ) Return on investment (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) Seoul - General (2.4) (0.4) (-3) CBD (3.8) (-0.1) (0.16) YBD (4.0) (0.2) (-0.23) GBD (3.5) (3.1) (0.18) Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/m 2 (%, from previous quarter)

8 Korea Appraisal Board 08 Office Rental Market by Style in Seoul Style Index Buildings were grouped together based on service life, which is an inherent building attribute, and the ease of access to the subway stations and roads, which are location attributes, and the vacancy rate, rent and ROI trends for each group of buildings. The results of the index analysis by prime office building style in Q showed that the rent was low and the ROI was relatively high for office buildings with a period of depreciation of 20 years and less. In the case of the subway station area index, the vacancy rate of office buildings located closest to the subway stations (super-close subway station area) was higher than the office buildings in other areas, and their average rent was higher by KRW 59,000/m 2 as well. In terms of immediate access to a main road, the vacancy rate of office buildings adjacent to the main roads was 0.1%p higher than others, while the rent was higher by KRW 4,300/m 2. Age of Buildings 2017 Q2 Comparison of Indexes by Building Age Prime Office Rental Market Classification `17.1Q Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/m 2 ) Return on investment (%) `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%) Up to 10 years (4.7) (-1.0) (-0.22) 10 to 20 years (1.6) (0.1) (0.11) Exceeding 20 years (0.9) (1.9) (3) Note: 1) Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) 2) Age of Buildings : Service Life of the current year - construction completed year As for the vacancy rate by period of depreciation, the vacancy rate was 16.2% for buildings aged 10 years and under, 11.5% for 10 to 20 years, and 11.9% for those exceeding 20 years. The vacancy rate was the highest for buildings with a period of depreciation of 10 years and under, with a 4.7%p increase compared to the previous quarter. The rent rate was the highest for buildings with a period of depreciation of 10 years and under at KRW 27,400 m2, while the rent rate was KRW 22,600/ m2 and KRW 25,200/ m2 for buildings aged 10 to 20 years and over 20 years, respectively. The rent rate was the lowest for buildings with a period of depreciation exceeding 20 years. The ROI was the highest for buildings aged 10 to 20 years at 1.84%, followed by buildings with a period of depreciation of 10 years and under at 1.52% and buildings with a period of depreciation exceedidng 20 years at 1.67%. New buildings recorded a relatively high vacancy rate due to the difficulty in attracting tenants, and this consequently contributed to the relatively low ROI. Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Service Life (Unit:%) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Right: R Rental Price: Less than 10 years 10~20 years More than 20 years Left: V Vacancy Rate: Less than 10 years 10~20 years More than 20 years Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Service Life (Unit:%) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Less than 10 years 10~20 years More than 20 years

9 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Station Influence Areas Comparison of Q Index for Areas with Subway Station Access Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/m 2 ) Return on investment (%) Classification From previous From previous From previous `17.1Q `17.2Q `17.1Q `17.2Q `17.1Q `17.2Q quarter (%p) quarter (%) quarter (%p) Areas with subway station access (5.2) (-0.1) (0.1) Other (-0.4) (0.9) (-0.15) Note: 1) Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) 2) Strong Station Influence Area: within 200m from a subway station In the case of prime office buildings in the super-close subway station areas, the vacancy rate was relatively higher (2.0%p) than the prime office buildings in other areas. The vacancy rate increased by 5.2%p for the prime office buildings in the super-close subway station areas and fell by 0.4%p for the prime office buildings in other areas. There was a 0.19%p gap between the ROI for the prime office buildings in the super-close subway station areas (1.77%) and the prime office buildings in other areas (1.58%). The rent rate was comparatively higher by KRW 5,900/ m2 for the prime office buildings in the super-close subway station areas, indicating that access to the subway had a significant impact on rent. As a result of enterprises moving out of some of the buildings in the super-close subway station areas, the vacancy rate of the rime office buildings in the corresponding areas was found to be higher than in other areas. Considering the tendency of tenants to prefer locations with excellent transportation access, however, the popularity of the office buildings in the super-close subway station areas is expected to recover in the future. Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Station Influence Area (Unit:%) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) Right: R Left: V `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Rental Price: Vacancy Rate: Strong Station Influence Areas Strong Station Influence Areas Other Areas Other Areas Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Station Influence Area (Unit:%) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Strong Station Influence Areas Other Areas English Version Prime Office Rental Market Areas Connecting with Wide Road Comparison of Q Indexes by Adjacency to Main Thoroughfares Classification `17.1Q Connection with wide road: Road connection condition is a wide road (the Width of Road: More than 35m) Vacancy Rate (%) Lease fee (thousands of Won/m 2 ) Return on investment (%) `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q From previous quarter (%p) Adjacency to main thoroughfares (2.9) (-0.5) (-6) Other (1.7) (2.1) (2) Note: Vacancy rates and return on investment in % (%p, from previous quarter); lease fees in thousands of Won/ m2 (%, from previous quarter) In the case of prime office buildings located adjacent to main roads, the vacancy rate was lower by 0.1%p compared the prime office buildings in other areas. Such buildings also recorded a higher rent rate (by KRW 4,300/ m2 ) and a 0.11%p lower ROI. The ROI for buildings adjacent to main roads had been typically higher compared to those in other areas, but the situation has been overturned since Q due to a decline in income rate. Trend of Vacancy Rate(V) and Rental Price(R) of Seoul by Connection with Wide Road (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) Right: R Left: V `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Rental Price: Vacancy Rate: Areas Connection with wide road Areas Connection with wide road Other Areas Other Areas Trend of Return on Investment of Seoul by Connection with Wide Road (Unit:%) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Areas Connection with wide road Other Areas

10 Korea Appraisal Board 10 Office Rental Market by Segment in Seoul CBD Vacancy Rate: 15.1% (3.8%p increase from previous quarter) Rental Price: 31.1 thousand Won/m 2 (0.1% decrease from previous quarte) Return on investment : 1.85% (0.16%p increase from previous quarter) Due to the affiliates of conglomerates moving out of CBD, the vacancy rate increased by 3.8%p from the previous quarter to 15.1%, and the rent rate fell by 0.1% from the previous quarter to KRW 31,100/ m2. The move-out from large office buildings such as Seoul City Tower continued to occur, and caused the vacancy rate to rise. Based on the anticipation that Amore Pacific and Hana Bank will want to move into new office buildings, the vacancy rate in CBD will maintain a steady uptrend. Although there was a decline in the income rate, due to the increased vacancy rate, the ROI was recorded at 1.85%, which was a 0.16%p increase from the previous quarter, due to a rise in the ROE. Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in CBD Trend of Return on Investment of CBD Prime Office Rental Market (Unit:%) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) (Unit:%) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 2 0 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q CBD Rental Price CBD Vacancy Rate Return on Investment of CBD YBD Vacancy Rate: 14.9% (4.0%p increase from previous quarter) Rental Price: 2 thousand Won/m 2 (0.2% increase from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.43% (0.23%p decrease from previous quarter YBD recorded a vacancy rate of 14.9%, a 4.0%p increase in the vacancy rate compared to the previous year, due to the affiliates of conglomerates moving out of the area. New vacancies occurred in IFC, Nonghyup Capital Building, and Samsung Life Insurance Yeouido Building, and the construction completion of the new office building of the Korea Teachers' Credit Union and the new joint office building of Parc 1 and Kookmin Bank (KB) is scheduled for 2018 and 2020, respectively, which is expected to have an impact on the office rental market of YBD. LG CNS and several other enterprises from YBD are set to move into the Magok LG Science Park, the construction of which is expected to finish in the near future. The rent rate was recorded at KRW 23,000/ m2, which was a 0.2% increase from the previous quarter. If the trend of continued supply of new offices and tenant move-out continues, it will likely push down the rent in CBD. As a result of a decline in the income rate due to the increased vacancy rate, the ROI was recorded at 1.43%, which was a 0.23%p decrease from the previous quarter.

11 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in YBD Trend of Return on Investment of YBD (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) (Unit: %) English Version `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 2 0 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q YBD Rental Price YBD Vacancy Rate Return on Investment of YBD GBD Vacancy Rate: 9.3% (3.5%p increase from previous quarter Rental Price: 25.8 thousand Won/m 2 (3.1% increase from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.90% (0.18%p increase from previous quarter) The vacancy rate in the GBC climbed to 9.3% in Q, which was a 3.5%p increase from the previous quarter, but it still maintained the lowest vacancy rate out of all the business diistricts in Seoul. Some of the vacancies were filled up, as Samsung affliates moved into the area and a number of other enterprises moved into the Parnas Tower after its erection, in addition to the scheduled relocation of major law firms. However, the enterprises moving out of the GT Tower drove up the vacancy rate compared to the previous quarter. Descente Korea, which had its office at the Capital Tower, is set to move into the Lotte World Tower in the latter half of this year, and the office sharing business has been seeing continued growth. These factors are expected to have an impact on the vacancy rate in the future. Prime Office Rental Market The rent rate was KRW 25,800/m 2, which was a 3.1% increase from the previous quarter. The changes in the vacancy rate are expected to have an impact on rent in the future. The ROI was 1.90%, a 0.18% increase from the previous quarter, and this was higher compared to CBD (1.85%) and YBD (1.43%). Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in GBD Trend of Return on Investment of GBD (Unit:%) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q (Unit: %) `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q GBD Rental Price GBD Vacancy Rate Return on Investment of GBD

12 Korea Appraisal Board 12 Bundang Vacancy Rate: 8.4% (1%p increase from previous quarter) Rental Price: 17.0 thousand Won/m 2 (0.7% increase from previous quarter) Return on investment : 2.09% (0.21%p increase from previous quarter) The vacancy rate of the prime office buildings in Bundang was 8.4%, which was a 1%p decrease from the previous quarter. The marked drop in the vacancy rate was found to be due to the lease contracts signed by the affiliates of conglomerates (Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Fire Insurance, NCsoft, etc.) in the area. The rent rate was KRW 17,000/m 2, a 0.7% increase from the previous quarter. The ROI was recorded at 2.09%, a 0.21% increase from the previous quarter. Prime Office Rental Market Trend of Vacancy Rate and Rental Price in Bundang (Unit:%) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Trend of Return on Investment of ETC (Unit:%) `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q rent at Bundang rate of vacnacy at Bundang Return on Investment of Bundang Provincial Prime Office Rental Markets Busan Vacancy Rate: 14.4% (0.6%p decrease from previous quarter) Rental Price: 8.3 thousand Won/m 2 (0.3% increase from previous quarter) Return on investment : 1.61% (3%p increase from previous quarter) The vacancy rate of the prime office buildings in Busan in Q was 14.4%, which was a 0.6% decrease from the previous quarter. There was a drop in the vacancies at the National Pension Service Busan Building due to a large number of financial firms moving in, and this contributed to the decline in the overall vacancy rate of prime office buildings in Busan. However, the demand among the logistics and manufacturing companies accounting for a large part of the local industrial sector to move out of the area is expected to have an impact on the vacancy rate in the future. The rent rate increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter to KRW 8,300/m2, while the ROI increased to 1.61%, which was a 3%p increase from the previous quarter. Although the vacancy and rent rates showed an upward trend, there is a possibility of slight fluctuations in the future depending on the local economic situation.

13 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Trend of vacancy rate and rent in Busan Trend of Return on Investment of Busan (Unit: %) (Unit: KRW 1,000/ m2 ) Songdo, Incheon Vacancy Rate: 42.1% (No change from previous quarter) 14.4 `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Busan rental price Busan vacancy rate Songdo saw no changes in the vacancy rate from the previous quarter at 42.1%, which was fairly high due to excess supply compared to the lease demand. The rent rate remained steady from the previous quarter at KRW 8,100 /m 2, which was quite low due to the high vacancy rate. 5.0 (Unit:%) Rental Price: 1.0 thousand Won/m 2 (No change from previous quarter) `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q Return on Investment of Busan English Version Prime Office Rental Market Of the prime office buildings in Songdo, the properties owned by public institutions are being rented without any vacancies, but there are challenges to attracting tenants for those owned by private entities. For some of the buildings, efforts are being made to attract new tenants, with considerations of dividing the properties for leasing purposes.

14 Korea Appraisal Board 14 Supply and Transaction Market Office Supply Market As for the new office building supply in Seoul in Q, there were a total of 19 new office buildings supplied, with an area of 109,170m 2, and a new prime office building supplied (gross floor area: 53,369m 2 ). The new office building supply in Q was 19 buildings, which was a 58.3% YOY increase (as of the usage approval date), and due to the impact of a prime office building being supplied, the newly supplied area was 109,170 m2, which was a 188.0% YOY increase. New Office Space Supply in Seoul Area (Unit: buildings, 10,000m 2 ) Supply and Transaction Market Period Number of properties (buildings) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Floor area (m 2 ) Source: Building Register (`17. 06) The number of new general office buildings supplied for each business district in Q was 3 for CBD, 3 for YBD, 6 for GBD, and 7 for ETC. The newly supplied prime office building was Daishin Finance Center (gross floor area: 53,369 m2 ) in CBD. Status of expected supply of office buildings by district District Name of building Gross floor area( m2 ) Floor count Expected completion date CBD Centropolis 140, stories / 8 basement floors June 2018 Head office, Hana Bank 54, stories / 6basement floors H KTCU Building 83, stories / 4 basement floors 2018 YBD Parc , stories / 7 basement floors TBD Parc , stories / 7 basement floors TBD Samsung Life Insurance Irwondong Building 76,390 9 stories / 7 basement floors H GBD Seolleung 889 Building 23, stories / 6 basement floors H Lotte Chilsung 379,349 - After 2020 Hyundiai Motors Headquarters 928, ~2020 ETC LG Science Park 900,363 9 stories (4 buildings) H Acro Seoul Forest (D Tower) 98, stories / Source: JLL, etc. (Including Internet articles)

15 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Office Transation Market There were 19,213 (1,841,000m 2 ) transactions of commercial buildings in Seoul in Q. There were 33 sales transactions involving office buildings, which amounted to a total of 277,213m 2 in area. * DWith the actual transaction prices for commercial buildings made public on December 15, 2016, the current situation with the general office buildings was examined using the actual transaction prices announced through the Real Estate Transaction Statistics Report. There were 7,407 sales transactions (1,281,847 m2 ) involving the commercial buildings in Seoul, while there were 33 office building sales transactions, which was a 25.0% YOY decrease (35.9% increase in terms of floor area). In terms of business district, 3 of the transactions were in CBD, 17 in GBD, and 13 in ETC. Commercial and Business Property Transactions in Seoul Area Period Commercial and Business Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 11,154 13,776 14,200 13,639 12,550 12,747 15,804 14,118 22,066 19,213 Sale Transactions 7,010 8,787 7,888 7,560 6,608 7,468 8,650 7,568 6,245 7,407 Office sales The average sales price rate was KRW 5.20 million/ m2. In terms of business district, it was KRW 5.04 million/ m2 in GBD and KRW 4.70 in ETC. Key Office Sales Transactions Area Building name Gross floor area (m 2 ) Sales price Seller Buyer English Version Supply and Transaction Market CBD Yuanta Securities Building 28,024 KRW B Hana Asset Management H-Amundi Asset Management GBD Samsung Life Insurance Yeoksam Building 32,686 KRW B Samsung Life Insurance Samsung SRA Asset Management GBD Hite Jinro Seocho Office Building 33,587 KRW B M Plus Asset Management Ryukyung PSG GBD Trust Tower 36,208 KRW B Golden Bridge Asset Management Dongwon F&B ETC Pantech R&D Center 66,649 KRW B Intrus nvestment & Managemnt Hanssem Source: MATE PLUS, etc. (incl. online news articles) Supply status (Unit:%) (Unit: Number of buildings) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q Transaction status (Unit:%) (Unit: Number of buildings) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q Area of buildings completed Number of buildings completed Area of buildings completed Number of buildings completed Note: Figures as of end of June, 2017 Source: Internet Architectural Administration Information System Note: Figures as of end of June, 2017 Source: RTMS

16 Korea Appraisal Board 16 Economic Trend Interest Rate The call rate remained steady at 1.24%, without any significant fluctuations, in Q The interest rate on treasury bonds increased after Nov due to the interest hike in the U.S., but it recorded 1.67% in Q, showing a slight downward trend due to external factors such as the situations in the U.S. and Europe. The interest rate on corporate bonds has been fluctuating slightly around 2.2%, but the bond spread increased by 0.54%p, due to the decline in the treasury bond interest rate. Newly Established Corporations and Bankrupt Corporations The number of new corporations has been rising continually, recording a 0.37% YOY increase (cumulative increase as of April 2017). As of April 2017, there were 7,895 new corporations, which was a 1.19% decrease, and this comes after repeated fluctuations since The number of bankrupt corporations has gradually been rising following a recent downward trend. (Unit : %) (Unit of number) 10, , ,000 4, , Economic Trend 0 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M Corporate Bond Treasury Bond (Right) Source: the Bank of Korea Call Rate (unsecured) Treasury Bond (3-year maturity) Corporate Bond (3-year maturity, over-the-counter) 0 0 `11.04M `12.04M `13.04M `14.04M `15.04M `16.04M `17.04M Newly Established Corporates (Right) Bankrupt Corporates (Left) Source: the Small and Medium Business Administration and Korea Financial Telecommunications and Clearings Institute Business Survey Index (BSI) The BSI for all industries began to show recovery in November 2016, but it fell by 3p from the previous month to 77 in June The BSI for the real estate and rental industry (based on industry performance) was recorded at 80 in June with the political uncertainties alleviated following the Presidential Election. The BSI for the construction industry had been on a steady rise in the recent 5 months, but it dipped by 6p compared to the previous month to 68 in June 2017 as a result of reinforced restrictions on real estate. The Number Of Employees By Area The number of employees nationwide in June 2017 was million, which was a 1.13% YOY increase. The number of employees in the Seoul Capital Area in June 2017 was million, which was a 1.16% YOY increase. The number of office workers in the Seoul Capital Area was 2.62 million, which was a 2.98% YOY increase (2.55 million in June 2016) (% increase/decrease from the same time last year) 40 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M -1 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M Newly Established Corporates Bankrupt Corporates Real Estate Industry The Nation Metropolitan Areas Source: the Bank of Korea Source: Statistics Korea

17 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market English Version Drastic reduction in Chinese tourists is expected to result in short-term decrease in demand for accommodations, but it is likely to have significant effects on the hotel and real estate economy according to issues related to the winter Olympics and resurged demand for Chinese tourists. Trends in the domestic tourism industry At the end of 2016, as the Chinese authorities banned sale of group tourism products bound for Korea by taking retaliatory measures against the deployment of THAAD in Korea, the number of Chinese tourists was drastically reduced to induce decrease in the number of overall foreign tourists visiting Korea. Reduction in the number of tourists caused by a ban on tours to Korea is less serious than the situation caused by the MERS outbreak in The number of foreigners visiting Korea is showing a gradual increase except for 2015 by recording +11.3% in 2011, +13.7% in 2012, +9.3% in 2013, +16.6% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and +30.3% in The number is expected to be decreased in 2017 compared to 2016 and record the same level as 2013 and The current state of foreign tourists visiting Korea (Unit: 10,000 persons) [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market 50 0 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Tourism Pupose All Source: Korea Culture & Tourism Institute By nationality of foreign visitors, it appears to be heavily influenced by the reduction in the number of Chinese tourists (decreased by 34.7% compared to the same period last year), and the number was increased in other major countries. Reduction in the number of Chinese tourists is replaced with increase in tourists from other countries, and impact on the market is somewhat relieved.

18 Korea Appraisal Board 18 Fluctuations in foreign visitors from major countries By nationality Annual From the previous year (%) Jan.~May (Unit:1,000 persons) Compared to the same period of last year (Jan.~May) (%) Japan 3,289 3,519 2,748 2,280 1,838 2, China 2,220 2,837 4,327 6,127 5,984 8, , Taiwan Hong Kong The U.S., Trands in the Comestic Hotel Industry According to survey on the actual conditions of foreign tourists conducted by Korea Culture & Tourism Institute conducted at the end of 2016, 71.5% of respondents asked about the type of accommodations they frequently use said that they are mostly using hotels, and it was followed by alternative accommodations including youth hostels (19.2%) and relative/friend s places (6.8%), and the portion was increased by almost 3% from a year ago. [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market As for the main area of visitation, 78% of respondents cited Seoul as the most frequently visited area, and it was followed by Jeju (20.2%) and Gyeonggi (13.1%). As demand for accommodations is increased on the back of the rising number of foreign visitors, the increasing trends in supply of hotels in Seoul are expected to continue as the Seoul Metropolitan City operates revised Special Act on Expansion of Tourism Accommodations that has been temporarily implemented since 2012 as municipal ordinances. In the meantime, according to the Business Survey Index (BSI), the business climate and profitability in the hotel industry hovered around 100 in the first half of 2012 before struggling to record less than 100 after that. The index that was dropped to the bottom in the wake of the MERS incident in 2015 showed a sign of recovery in the latter half of Tourism bussiness performance(bsi) business status Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q `08 `09 `10 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 Tourism bussiness performance(bsi) business profitability Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q `08 `09 `10 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 Hotel Business Status Prime Hotel Level 1, 2, 3 Hotel Note: `16 Q4 rates are predicted Source: Korea Culture & Tourism Institute

19 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Given the current state of the domestic tourism industry and the economic trends in the hotel industry, reduction in demand for accommodations caused by drastic decrease in Chinese tourists in the short term is combined with factors inducing sudden increase in supply of hotels to have negative effects on the hotel industry, which appears to require prudence at a time of investment in hotels. In the long term, favorable indication on Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games to be held next year and continuous increase in the number of other foreign tourists than the Chinese are likely to induce rising demand for hotels, and if the Chinese authorities lift a ban on tours to Korea, it is expected to have a positive effect on the hotel industry while facilitating investment. In the short term, reduction in the number of Chinese tourists is expected to cause recession in the domestic tourism industry, but in the long term, it is likely to produce such positive effects as increased visitation by other nationalities than the Chinese making it possible to depart from the Chinese-oriented tourism market through inducement of new tourists. English Version Hotel Status in Seoul As of December 2016, hotels in Seoul numbered a total of 348, up 57 from a year ago. As of December 2015, the average occupancy rate was 68.9%. and the average rate was 139,425 won. According to data on Korea Hotel Association, as of December 2015, guests of hotels in Seoul numbered about 5.73 million, down 400,000 from a year ago, and occupancy rate was 68.9%, down 7.94% from a year ago. Average rate per guest was about 139,425 won, down 13,335 won from a year ago. Level of occupancy rate (Non-graded: 75.75%, Level 1: 73.01% & Special Level2: 75% in order) As for the rate of guests, Koreans accounted for about 27%, and foreigners accounted for about 73%. The number of guests (10,000 persons) Hotel business index Foreigner Native Total Occupancy rate (%) Average rate (Won) All , ,425 Special Level , ,226 Special Level ,458 96,764 Level ,494 86,601 Level ,533 64,230 Level ,688 66,842 [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market Tourism , ,495 Non-graded ,039 84,682 Family , ,839 Data: Korea Hotel Association

20 Korea Appraisal Board Number of Hotels Completed(left) Accumulation(right) Data: Korea Hotel Association [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market The location of newly established hotels and those expected to be supplied tends to be concentrated in Jung-gu, Jongro-gu and Gangnam-gu in Seoul where the demand is still strong. Hotel Real Estate Investment The hotel investment market is stagnating in the wake of drastic reduction in Chinese tourists, and private equity funds for hotels and REITS that planned to induce investors has been delayed or cancelled one after another. In the first half of 2016, hotel public offering funds (KORAMCO Hotel Investment Private Equity Fund, Tmark Grand Hotel Public Offering Fund and etc.) were facilitated, but since the Chinese ban on tours to Korea, hotel funds and REITS have not been established in the domestic market. Some investors are turning their attention to overseas markets. Some major investment products were JW Marriott International located in Brooklyn in the U.S. KTB Global CREDebt Investment Private Equity Real Estate Trust No.1 Reduced investment in hotels was caused by reduction in the number of youkes(chinese tourists) and rising costs of fund-raising As the rising costs of fund-raising caused by the latest interest hike is combined with the THAAD incident, the economic environment has been depressed. Some commercial banks stopped LTV adjustment and extension of new loans to hotels. Considering the latest market environment, some institutional investors and private investors temporarily suspended assessment on assets that they were reviewing for investment. However, hotel REITS funds are equipped with a safety system on minimum rents to guarantee a certain amount of profits, so it is still worth investing.

21 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 Prospect of Hotel Real Estate If the Chinese ban on tours to Korea is lifted due to improved relationships with China is combined with favorable conditions created by the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, the current recession in the hotel market and the hotel investment market is expected to be resolved, and investments based on funds and REITS will be made centering around sound assets. English Version The current recession in the hotel and real estate market will be somewhat resolved on the back of favorable conditions generated by the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, and if the Chinese ban on tours to Korea is lifted due to improved relations with China, it will create growth momentum in the market. Recently, Intercontinental Hotel Group, Marriott International, and other foreign corporation have increased their investments in the Korean market. Market structure in the hotel industry is expected to diversfication as famous foreign hotels make inroads into the domestic market. Upward trend of condohotel(condo minium hotel) and the diversification of hotel investment related portfolios are predicted Since 2016, indirect investment has been allowed to be made in real estate or assets with 5 million won of minimum investment amount on the back of revision of the Capital Market Act, but if the hotel market environment is changed to be improved, and if a new hotel property fund is established, indirect investments are expected to be drastically improved. Since announcement of 6.19 Real Estate Policy, districts subject to restriction in resale of apartment purchase rights have been increased, and for-profit property products relatively free from such real estate regulations as restriction in resale and loans are highly likely to be selected as investment alternatives. [Special Report] Trend and Outlook of the Hotel Real Estate Market

22 Korea Appraisal Board 22 Expert s Colum* Jones Lang Lasalle, JLL Real Estate Intelligence Service Trend of Overseas Commercial Property Markets (Asia-Pacific Region) Leasing and investment markets prove resilient Expert s Column The commercial real estate market in Asia Pacific bgan the year on steady ground as both leasing and investment transactional volumes held relatively firm fom a year earlier. The trend of divergence in occupier markets persisted with several recording buoyant conditions. On the investment front, real estate s attractive yield profile in a lw interest rate environment is helping sustain investor interest and fie of the top 15 most active cities globally for investment volumes were in the Asia Pacific egion. Interestingly, China remained the largest source of outbound capital globally for the hotel sector in 1Q despite tight capital controls. Supply and demand offie dynamics neutral across most markets Overall leasing activity in the region was relatively stable, down slightly by 4% y-o-y in 1Q17 but with a varied performance across the region. At the city-level, Delhi remained the regional leader with leasing volumes at 220,000 sqm but healthy levels of activity were also recorded in Melbourne, Manila and Tokyo. In terms of industry drivers, financial and ech firms ere the most active. Similarly, 1Q net absorption fell slightly by 3% y-o-y, mostly evident in the India Tier 1 markets and Tokyo as supply additions dropped of. However, Melbourne recorded strong quarterly net absorption with broad-based demand, while traditional financialinstitutions (e.g. banks) drove activity in China s Tier 1 markets. Less new offie supply across Asia Pacifi Around half of all Asia Pacific marets saw new completions in 1Q; however, the total volume of supply dipped by 19% y-o-y. Shanghai received a large volume of supply in both the CBD and Decentralised markets, and accounted for nearly 60% of the total volume of new completions, with smaller supply volumes completed in Beijing and Guangzhou. One new building was completed in Tokyo with a relatively low pre-commitment rate while a Singapore project scheduled for 1Q delayed completion. Vacancy rates continued to decline in many Asia Pacific marets. Mumbai saw one of the largest quarterly falls with vacancy down around 1 percentage point and with the biggest drop recorded in the BKC submarket. Vacancy remained below 5% in markets such as Bengaluru, Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Meanwhile, Shanghai saw the largest jump in vacancy, rising by 4 percentage points on huge supply additions. Robust offie rental growth in a few key markets In aggregate, rents increased 1.0% q-o-q and 3.1% y-o-y. Sydney continued to record the strongest quarterly and annual growth, a result of persistent * This article is based on JLL(2017), Growth on track as Asia Pacific surges ahead, Asia Pacific Property Digest Q1 2017, JLL

23 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 demand for prime offie space and declining vacancy. The rental decline accelerated in Jakarta, but held steady in Singapore as commitment rates at upcoming supply improved. Perth returned to positive rental growth (on a prime net efective basis). F&B leading the way F&B operators and kids brands were still the main demand drivers in China s Tier 1 cities, while in Hong Kong the primary sources of demand were local and international F&B brands along with mid-tier retailers. The performance of retail sales in Singapore continued to be patchy and occupier demand was weak with many tenants still looking for early termination. Retailer performance in Sydney continued to vary across categories, with strong competition in the apparel category resulting in discounting and bankruptcies. English Version Demand drivers of logistics sector consistent with recent periods Strong demand from e-commerce retailers and third-party logistics companies continues in several Asia Pacific marets, including Tokyo and Sydney. Against mixed trade data in Hong Kong, most 3PLs as well as retailers who were previously active in expansion adopted a wait-and-see attitude with leasing largely centred on renewals. Take-up of business park space in Singapore focused on existing and recently completed premises given the lack of new completions during the quarter, while demand for logistics premises remained relatively subdued. Demand continued to be robust in Sydney with limited available options for immediate use, and quarterly take-up was supported by several large scale design and construct projects and speculative facilities getting leased up. China tightens residential policy measures while Singapore loosens Additional policy restrictions were introduced in many cities in China during the quarter, including refined definitionfor fist- and second-time home buyers, and higher down payments. The tight policy stance on home purchases and new launches continued to impact sales volumes in China s Tier 1 markets. In Singapore, the government moved in the opposite direction by slightly relaxing cooling measures in March. Market sentiment improved further in the citystate with sales volumes in the prime areas slightly above levels from a year earlier despite a lack of new launches. Despite the stamp duty in Hong Kong being raised to 15% in November and growing expectations that interest rates will rise, sales activity gathered pace as more developers launched units for sale. Many wealthy fist-time buyers purchased multiple units on one sales agreement in order to avoid the stamp duty; however, this loophole was closed in mid-april. Expert s Column Capital continues to chase real estate Investment volumes across Asia Pacificcommercial real estate markets started the year at the same pace as a year ago. 1Q17 final tansaction volumes in Asia Pacific rang in at USD 25.3 billion, up 1% on the same quarter a year ago, but down 43% on the previous quarter. The shortfall was largely confined o Australia and Hong Kong, due to a shortage of product. Japan and Singapore were regional standouts. The offie sector accounted for roughly half of total transaction volumes regionally, while retail and industrial each accounted for 15-20% and the rest mainly comprising of hotel assets. Cross-border investors remained active in 1Q, accounting for around one-third of total transaction volumes. Inter-regional purchaser activity dominated intra-regional in the quarter, and accounted for about 67% of cross-border purchaser activity. International funds continued to acquire core assets in Japan, Korea and Shanghai. Asian investors were active but Chinese buyers were quieter in the region. Ofshore investors activity in Australia remained vibrant as crossborder buyers continued to outpace cross-border sellers office leasing volumes expected to hold up A strong result for leasing volumes in 4Q16 helped lift the full-year results for 2016, which were down only 2% from the previous year s level. Even though we expect a larger volume of supply in 2017, lingering uncertainty surrounding the economic and political backdrop is expected to keep gross leasing volumes relatively in line with 2016 (-5% to 0% growth). Although aggregate conditions are likely to be generally stable, office leasing performance will continue to be varied as local market drivers may diverge. We have moved up our short-term forecast for rent growth in the core areas of Hong Kong and Osaka on sustained demand and tight vacancy. We have observed that some landlords in Hong Kong are willing to renew leases at below market rents in order to maintain a low vacancy environment and as such, are being aggressive on their rental stance for vacant space. Capital value growth outpaces rents again In the offie sector, Asia Pacific quarerly capital value growth moved higher by 1.8% in aggregate in 1Q17. Sound fundamentals and rent growth supported robust capital value increases in Sydney (+6.4% q-o-q) and Melbourne (+4.6%). Price benchmarks indicate that Hong Kong capital values reached new highs, while growth in Shanghai was in line with rents. The pace of decline picked up pace in Jakarta while ample liquidity saw the decline in Singapore ease.

24 Korea Appraisal Board 24 Rental Property Clocks, Q Figure 1: Offie Rental & Capital Value Changes, Yearly % Changes, Q Figure 2: Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Q 30 Rental Value Capital Values Sydney Melbourne Hong Kong Manila Tokyo Mumbai Figures relate to the major submarket in each put a period afer city Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q Shanghai Bangkok Beijing Seoul Singapore Jakarta USD Billion Figures refer to transactions over USD 5 million in offie, retail, hotels and industrial. Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q 1Q 2017 $25.3 bill 1% y-o-y Q17 Japan China Australia Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Other Figure 3: Rental Property Clocks, Q Expert s Column Grade A Office Sydney Manila, Guangzhou, Melbourne Osaka, Wellington Bangkok Hong Kong Auckland Tokyo Growth Slowing Rents Rising Beijing Rents Falling Decline Slowing Shanghai Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Seoul, Singapore, Adelaide Prime Retail Bangkok, Tokyo^, Wellington Kuala Lumpur Manila, Jakarta Shanghai Beijing Auckland Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Hong Kong^ Singapore Canberra Bengaluru Ho Chi Minh City Delhi, Chennai Mumbai Perth Taipei Hanoi Brisbane Mumbai Delhi Bengaluru Chennai, Melbourne*, Sydney* SE Queensland* Guangzhou Note: Clock positions for the office sector relate to the main submarket in each city. *Regional ^High Street Shops/Multi-level High Street Prime Residential Industrial Jakarta Tokyo Beijing, Auckland Hong Kong Shanghai Guangzhou, Manila Beijing, Bangkok Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Kuala Lumpur Wellington Manila Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Singapore (Logistics) Hong Kong Singapore* Sydney Shanghai Melbourne Brisbane Singapore (Business Park) *Luxurious *Logistics space(hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Greater Tokyo) Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q

25 KAB 오피스리포트 프라임급오피스 ( 국문판 ) Q. Vol.7 프라임급오피스시장동향 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 아시아, 태평양지역상업용부동산시장동향 Q. Vol.1

26 발행인 발행일 발행처 변성렬 2017 년 8 월 2 일 한국감정원 KAB 부동산연구원연구개발실시장분석연구부 대구광역시동구이노밸리로 291 ( 신서동 919-2) 홈페이지 전화 팩스 편집인 기획 편집책임 디자인 인쇄 채미옥 민철홍 (k25838@kab.co.kr) 제이에스프린팅

27 KAB 부동산연구원은 1989년한국감정원의감정평가연수원으로설립되어현재에이르기까지감정평가기법연구, 부동산통계지표개발과정부의부동산정책지원을비롯하여부동산컨설팅등부동산분야전반에걸쳐폭넓고깊이있는연구를통하여국가경제발전에기여하고있습니다.

28 프라임급 오피스 임대시장 공급 및 매매 시장 경제동향 지표설명 오피스 공급시장 금리 서울 임대시장 서울 스타일별 임대시장 서울 분당 권역별 임대시장 지방 프라임급 오피스 임대시장 오피스 매매시장 신설법인 및 부도법인 기업경기실사지수 지역별 취업자 수

29 2017.2Q. Vol.7 41 Contents 46 호텔부동산 시장동향과 전망 전문가 칼럼 국내 관광산업 동향 해외 상업용부동산 시장동향(아시아 태평양지역) 국내 호텔업 동향 서울 호텔 현황 호텔 부동산 투자현황 호텔 부동산 시장전망

30 Korea Appraisal Board 30 지표설명 대상오피스 Prime Office 총 72개동 서울권역별 (CBD, GBD, YBD, ETC) 총58개동 분당 4개동 CBD 21 동 ETC 5 동 부산 7개동 인천송도 3개동 YBD 11 동 Prime Office 기준 : - 서울 : 건축연면적 33,000 m2이상오피스빌딩 - 분당, 부산, 인천송도 : 건축연면적 16,500 m2이상 인천 3 동 GBD 21 동 투자지표 지표구분 부산 7 동 분당 4 동 공실률 임대료 프라임급오피스임대시장 공실률 (%) = (A: 건축연면적, V: 공실면적 ) 투자수익률투자수익률 (T) = 소득수익률 (I) + 자본수익률 (C) 임대료 ( 원 / m2 ) = (RA: 임대계약면적, R: 임대료 ) 빌딩별소득수익률 (I) =, 빌딩별자본수익률 (C) = (NOI: 순영업소득, V 0 : 기초자산가치, V 1 : 기말자산가치 ) 세부권역구분기준 지역건축연수역세권광대로 구분 서울 상세구분 CBD 종로구, 중구 GBD 강남구, 서초구 YBD 영등포구 ETC 3개권역외지역 분당 분당구 ( 서현동, 구미동, 수내동 ) 부산 연제구, 부산진구, 중구, 금정구 인천송도 연수구 ( 송도동 ) 10년이하 당해연도-신축년도가 10년이내 20년이하 20년이내 20년초과 20년초과 초역세권 지하철역과의거리가 200m 이내 그외 광대로접면 도로접면조건이광대로 그외

31 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 프라임급오피스임대시장 프라임급오피스임대시장의보다정확한투자지표생산을위해 `17년 1분기표본을재설계하여국토부에서발표하는임대동향조사와표본을일치시켰으며, 그에따라기존에발표된시장지표와연속성이단절되었음. 따라서 `16년 4분기까지의통계는기존의프라임오피스빌딩의조사결과임 ( 참고용 ) 국문판 서울임대시장 프라임급오피스공실증가로공실률은전분기대비 2.4%p 상승, 임대료는 0.4% 상승, 투자수익률은전분기대비 3%p 하락 공실률 : 13.2% ( 전분기대비 2.4%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 25.1 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.4% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.67% ( 전분기대비 3%p 하락 ) 도심지역을중심으로대기업이전이활발하게이뤄지고주요권역의프라임급빌딩에대한공실률상승이서울전체공실률상승에반영되며전분기대비 2.4%p 상승한 13.2% 수준 (`17년 1분기공실률 : 10.8%) GBD, YBD, CBD 등대부분의권역에서대기업계열사이전, 사옥등신규공급등으로이전수요가발생하여평균공실률이상승 프라임급오피스임대시장 임대료는서울 GBD와 YBD 지역이상승하였고 CBD 지역은소폭하락한가운데서울전체임대료는 25.1천원 / m2으로전분기대비 0.4% 상승한것으로조사됨 `17년 2분기서울전체의투자수익률은 YBD권역의투자수익률하락영향으로전분기대비 3%p 하락한 1.67% 로조사됨 권역별투자수익률을비교해보면 GBD의투자수익률 (1.90%) 이가장높게나타났으며, 그다음 CBD(1.85%), YBD(1.43%) 순 서울공실률및임대료추이 서울투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m 단위 : % `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 우 : 임대료좌 : 공실률 서울전체서울전체 CBD CBD YBD YBD GBD GBD 0.50 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 서울전체 CBD YBD GBD 구분 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) 서울전체 (2.4) (0.4) (-3) CBD (3.8) (-0.1) (0.16) YBD (4.0) (0.2) (-0.23) GBD (3.5) (3.1) (0.18) 주 : 공실률및수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %)

32 Korea Appraisal Board 32 서울스타일별임대시장 스타일지표건축물고유의속성인건축연한과입지속성인역세권및도로접근성을빌딩별로그룹화하여해당그룹별공실률, 임대료, 투자수익률의추이를분석 `17 년 2 분기프라임급오피스의스타일별지표분석결과, 내용연수는 20 년이하오피스의임대료가낮고, 투자수익률은 10 년초과및 20 년이하오피스가상대적으로높게나타남. 역세권지표의경우초역세권소재빌딩은공실률이그외권역의오피스대비 2.0%p 높고임대료는 5.9 천원 / m2높았음. 광대로접면유무에따른오피스는광대로접면소재빌딩의공실률이 0.1%p 가량낮고, 임대료는 4.3 천원 / m2높음 내용연수 `17. 2Q 건축물내용연수별지표비교 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) 프라임급오피스임대시장 구분 `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) 10 년이하 (4.7) (-1.0) (-0.22) 10 년초과및 20 년이하 (1.6) (0.1) (0.11) 20 년초과 (0.9) (1.9) (3) 주 : 1) 공실률및수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 2) 내용연수 : 해당연도 - 신축연도 내용연수별공실률은 10년이하 16.2%, 10년초과및 20년이하 11.5%, 20년초과 11.9% 로 10년초과및 20년이하건축물의공실률이낮은모습을보였으며, 10년이하의건축물이전분기대비 4.7%p 상승하며가장높은공실률을보이고있음 임대료는 10년이하 27.4천원 / m2, 10년초과및 20년이하와 20년초과유형의임대료는각각 22.6천원 / m2, 25.2천원 / m2으로 10년이하빌딩의임대료가상대적으로높은수준을보였으며, 10년초과및 20년이하빌딩의임대료수준이가장낮게나타남 투자수익률은 10년초과및 20년이하가 1.84% 로가장높게나타났고, 다음으로 10년이하 1.52%, 20년초과유형이 1.67% 로나타남 신규빌딩은신규임차인유치로인해공실률수준이상대적으로높았으며, 높은공실률영향으로투자수익률은상대적으로낮게나타남 서울내용연수별공실률및임대료추이 서울내용연수별투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 0.50 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q ( 우 ) 임대료 : 10년이하 10년초과및 20년이하 20년초과 ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 10년이하 10년초과및 20년이하 20년초과 10 년이하 10 년초과및 20 년이하 20 년초과

33 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 역세권 `17. 2Q 역세권지표비교 구분 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) 초역세권 (5.2) (-0.1) (0.1) 그외 (-0.4) (0.9) (-0.15) 주 : 1) 공실률및수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 2) 초역세권 : 지하철역과의거리가 200m 이내 초역세권권역의프라임급오피스는그외권역의프라임급오피스보다공실률이상대적으로높았으며 (2.0%p), 전분기대비공실률은초 역세권빌딩 5.2%p 상승, 그외권역 0.4%p 하락 국문판 투자수익률은초역세권권역이 1.77%, 그외권역은 1.58% 로 0.19%p 격차가발생하였고임대료는초역세권권역의프라임급오피스가상대적으로 5.9천원 / m2높은수준을보이는등접근성이임대료에큰영향을미치고있음 초역세권내몇몇물건의기업이전영향으로프라임급오피스의공실률이그외권역보다높게조사되었으나, 유리한입지를선호하는임차인들의심리로향후초역세권역의프라임급오피스의인기는회복할것으로전망 서울역세권별공실률및임대료추이 서울역세권별투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m 단위 : % `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q ( 우 ) 임대료 : ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 초역세권초역세권 그외그외 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 초역세권그외 프라임급오피스임대시장 광대로접면 `17. 1Q 광대로접면지표비교 구분 광대로접면에입지한프라임급오피스의경우그외프라임급오피스에비해공실률은 0.1%p 낮은수준이며, 임대료는 4.3 천원 / m2높은 수준이고투자수익률은광대로접면프라임오피스가 0.11%p 낮은수준을기록 광대로접면빌딩의투자수익률은그외오피스에비해높은것이통상적이었으나소득수익률하락등의이유로 `16.4Q 에이어역전현상이지 속되고있음 공실률 (%) 임대료 ( 천원 / m2 ) 투자수익률 (%) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%p) `17.1Q `17.2Q 전분기대비 (%) `17.1Q 광대로접면 `17.2Q : 도로접면조건이전분기광대로 ( 도로대비폭 (%p) 35m이상 ) 광대로접면 (2.9) (-0.5) (-6) 그외 (1.7) (2.1) (2) 주 : 1) 공실률및수익률은 %( 전분기대비, %p), 임대료는천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비, %) 2) 광대로접면 : 도로접면조건이광대로 ( 도록폭 35m 이상 ) 서울광대로접면공실률및임대료추이 서울광대로접면투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q ( 우 ) 임대료 : ( 좌 ) 공실률 : 광대로접면광대로접면 그외그외 광대로접면 그외

34 Korea Appraisal Board 34 서울 분당권역별임대시장 CBD 공실률 : 15.1% ( 전분기대비 3.8%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 31.1 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.1% 하락 ) 투자수익률 : 1.85% ( 전분기대비 0.16%p 상승 ) CBD권역내주요대기업계열사의이동영향으로공실률이전분기대비 3.8%p 상승한 15.1%, 임대료는 31.1천원 / m2으로전분기대비 0.1% 하락 서울시티타워등의대규모오피스를중심으로기업이전이계속되면서공실률이상승 아모레퍼시픽및하나은행의신규사옥이전수요가예상됨에따라 CBD 권역의공실률은상승세를유지할것으로전망 투자수익률은전반적인공실증가에따른소득수익률하락이있었으나자본수익률상승의영향으로전분기대비 0.16%p 상승한 1.85% 를기록 CBD 공실률및임대료추이 CBD 투자수익률추이 프라임급오피스임대시장 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 2 0 `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q CBD 임대료 CBD 공실률 CBD 투자수익률 YBD 공실률 : 14.9% ( 전분기대비 4.0%p 상승 ) 임대료 : 23.0 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.2% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.43% ( 전분기대비 0.23%p 하락 ) YBD권역의공실률은대기업유입에대한효과로전분기대비 4.0%p 상승한 14.9% 수준 IFC, 농협캐피탈빌딩, 삼성생명여의도빌딩등에서공실이발생하였으며, `18년교직원공제회빌딩, `20년파크원및 KB국민은행통합사옥등의완공이예정되어있어향후 YBD 임대시장변화에영향을줄것으로예상됨 향후마곡 LG사이언스파크준공을앞두고 LG CNS 등몇몇기업들의이동이예정 임대료는전분기대비 0.2% 상승한 23.0천원 / m2을기록하였고, 향후오피스의지속적인공급및임차인이동이지속될경우임대료하락에영향을미칠수있을것으로판단됨 투자수익률은공실률상승에따른소득수익률하락의영향으로전분기대비 0.23%p 하락한 1.43% 를기록

35 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 YBD 공실률및임대료추이 YBD 투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 국문판 YBD 임대료 YBD 공실률 YBD 투자수익률 GBD 공실률 : 9.3% ( 전분기대비 3.5%p 상승 ) `17 년 2 분기 GBD 권역공실률은 9.3% 로전분기대비 3.5%p 상승하 였으나, 서울전권역중가장낮은공실률수준을유지 삼성계열사의강남권이전과파르나스타워준공이후다수의기업입주 및대형법무법인의입주예정등으로공실을해소하였으나, GT타워기업이전등의영향을받아전분기대비공실률이상승하였음 올해하반기캐피탈타워에있던데상트코리아가롯데월드타워로이전할예정이며, GBD를중심으로공유오피스사업의확장세가지속됨에따라향후공실률변동에영향을미칠것으로예상됨 임대료는 25.8 천원 / m2으로전분기대비 3.1% 상승하였으며, 향후 공실률변동이임대료에영향을미칠것으로판단됨 투자수익률은 1.90% 로전분기대비 0.18% 상승하였고, CBD(1.85%), YBD(1.43%) 권역보다높은수준으로조사됨 임대료 : 25.8 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 3.1% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.90% ( 전분기대비 0.18%p 상승 ) 프라임급오피스임대시장 GBD 공실률및임대료추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q GBD 투자수익률추이 단위 : % `15.3Q `15.4Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q GBD 임대료 GBD 공실률 GBD 투자수익률

36 Korea Appraisal Board 36 분당 공실률 : 8.4% ( 전분기대비 1%p 하락 ) 임대료 : 17.0 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.7% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 2.09% ( 전분기대비 0.21%p 상승 ) 분당의프라임급오피스공실률은 8.4% 로전분기대비 1%p 하락 권역내대기업 ( 현대중공업, 삼성화재, 엔씨소프트등 ) 임대차계약의영향으로공실률이대폭하락한것으로조사됨 임대료수준은 17.0천원 / m2으로전분기대비 0.7% 상승 투자수익률은 2.09% 수준을기록하며전분기대비 0.21% 상승 프라임급오피스임대시장 분당공실률및임대료추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 분당투자수익률추이단위 : % `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 분당임대료 분당공실률 분당투자수익률 지방프라임급오피스임대시장 부산 공실률 : 14.4% ( 전분기대비 0.6%p 하락 ) 임대료 : 8.3 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비 0.3% 상승 ) 투자수익률 : 1.61% ( 전분기대비 3%p 상승 ) `17년 2분기부산의프라임급오피스공실률은 14.4% 로전분기대비 0.6%p 하락 국민연금부산회관은다수의금융회사입주에따라공실을해소하며프라임급오피스공실률하락에영향을미쳤으나지역산업을대표하는물류및제조업기업들의이주에따라향후공실률변동에영향을미칠것으로판단 임대료수준은전분기대비 0.3% 상승한 8.3천원 / m2, 투자수익률은전분기대비 3%p 상승한 1.61% 기록 공실률과임대료는강보합세를보이고있으나향후지역경기여건에따라소폭변동될가능성이있음

37 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 부산공실률및임대료추이 부산투자수익률추이 단위 : % 단위 : 천원 / m2 단위 : % `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q `16.1Q `16.2Q `16.3Q `16.4Q `17.1Q `17.2Q 국문판 부산임대료 부산공실률 부산투자수익률 인천송도 공실률 : 42.1% ( 전분기대비보합 ) 임대료 : 8.1 천원 / m2 ( 전분기대비보합 ) 공실률은전분기대비변동없이 42.1% 로임차수요에비해공급된물건이많아비교적높은수준의공실률을기록 임대료수준은 8.1천원 / m2으로전분기대비동일한수준을유지하는가운데다소높은공실률의영향으로상대적으로낮은수준의임대료를보이고있음 송도의프라임급오피스중공공기관소유물건은공실없이임대중이나민간소유의물건은여전히임차인유치의어려움을겪고있는모습임 이중일부빌딩은분할임대방식등을고려하여신규임차인유치노력을하고있음 프라임급오피스임대시장

38 Korea Appraisal Board 38 공급및매매시장 오피스공급시장 `17 년 2 분기서울지역의오피스의공급물량은총 19 개동, 공급면적은 109,170 m2이며, 프라임급오피스공급물량은 1 개동 ( 연면적 53,369 m2 ) `17 년 2 분기오피스건물은전년동기대비 58.3% 증가한 19 개동으로나타났고 ( 사용승인일기준 ), 프라임급오피스공급의영향으로공급면 적은전년동기대비 188.0% 증가한 109,170 m2로나타남 서울지역오피스신규공급현황 공급및매매시장 기간 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 2분기 공급건수 ( 동 ) 공급면적 ( 만m2 ) 자료 : 건축물관리대장 (`17년 6월말기준 ) `17 년 2 분기권역별신규오피스공급물량은 CBD 3 건, YBD 3 건, GBD 6 건, ETC 7 건이었으며, 신규공급된프라임급건물은 CBD 권역의 대신파이낸스센터 ( 연면적 53,369 m2 ) 로조사되었음 권역별프라임급오피스건물의공급규모및예정일정 권역빌딩명연면적 ( m2 ) 층규모준공예정일 CBD 센트로폴리스 140, 층 / 지하 8 층 2018 년 6 월 KEB 하나은행본점 54, 층 / 지하 6 층 2017 년하반기 KTCU 빌딩 83, 층 / 지하 4 층 2018 년 YBD Parc , 층 / 지하 7 층미정 Parc , 층 / 지하 7 층미정 삼성생명일원동빌딩 76,390 9 층 / 지하 7 층 2017 년하반기 GBD 선릉 889 빌딩 23, 층 / 지하 6 층 2017 년하반기 롯데칠성 379, 년이후 현대모터스본사 928, ~2020 년 ETC LG 사이언스파크 900,363 9 층 (4 개동 ) 2017 년하반기 아크로서울포레스트 (D Tower) 98, 층 / 년 자료 : JLL 등 ( 인터넷기사포함 )

39 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 오피스매매시장 `17 년 2 분기서울지역의상업 업무용빌딩의매매거래량 * 은 19,213 건 (1,841 천m2 ) 이며, 오피스매매거래는 33 건, 거래면적은총 277,213 m2로나타남 * `16 년 12 월 15 일상업 업무용실거래정보가공개됨에따라, 부동산거래통계공표자료의실거래정보에서일반오피스건물의매매사례현황을파악 서울상업 업무용빌딩의매매거래는 7,407 건 (1,281,847 m2 ) 이고일반오피스빌딩의매매거래는 33 건으로전년동기대비 25.0% 감소 ( 면적 기준 35.9% 증가 ) 하였으며, 권역별로는 CBD 3 건, GBD 17 건, ETC 13 건임 국문판 서울지역상업 업무용거래현황 ( 단위 : 건 ) 기간 분기 2 분기 3 분기 4 분기 1 분기 2 분기 3 분기 4 분기 1 분기 2 분기 상업 업무용 11,154 13,776 14,200 13,639 12,550 12,747 15,804 14,118 22,066 19,213 매매거래 7,010 8,787 7,888 7,560 6,608 7,468 8,650 7,568 6,245 7,407 오피스매매 평균매매거래가격은m2당 520 만원수준으로, 권역별로는 GBD 504 만원 / m2, ETC 470 만원 / m2임 주요오피스매매거래사례현황 공급및매매시장 권역 빌딩 연면적 ( m2 ) 매매금액 매도 매수 CBD 유안타증권빌딩 28,024 2,170억원 하나자산운용 H-Amundi자산운용 GBD 삼성생명역삼빌딩 32,686 2,109억원 삼성생명 삼성SRA자산운용 GBD 하이트진로서초사옥 33,587 1,810억원 엠프러스자산운용 유경PSG자산운용 GBD 트러스트타워 36,208 1,073억원 골든브릿지자산운용 동원에프앤비 ETC 팬택R&D센터 66,649 1,485억원 인트러스투자운용 한샘 자료 : MATE PLUS 등 ( 인터넷기사포함 ) 공급현황 단위 : m2단위 : 동 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 공급면적 ( m2 ) 공급건수 ( 동 ) 거래현황 단위 : m2 단위 : 동 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 매매면적 매매건수 ( 동 ) 주 : 각수치는 `17 년 6 월말기준자료 : 세움터 주 : 각수치는 `17 년 6 월말기준자료 : RTMS

40 Korea Appraisal Board 40 경제동향 금리 콜금리는 `17년 2분기동안큰변동없이 1.24% 수준을유지 국고채금리는미국금리영향으로 `16년 11월이후상승하였으나미국 유럽등대외요인으로인해 1.67% 를기록하며약보합세 회사채금리는 2.2% 내외에서소폭등락하고있지만국고채금리의감소로인해채권스프레드는 0.54%p를기록하며상승 신설법인및부도법인 신설법인수는지속적으로증가하는추세로전년동기간대비 (`17년 4월누계기준 ) 0.37% 증가 `17년 4월신설법인수는 7,895개로 `16년증감을반복하다전년동월대비 1.19% 감소 부도법인수는최근감소추세에서점차증가하는모습 6 단위 : % ,000 단위 : 건 120 경제동향 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M 회사채-국고채 ( 우축 ) 무담보콜금리 국고채 (3년) 회사채 (AA-) 자료 : 한국은행 8, , , , `11.04M `12.04M `13.04M `14.04M `15.04M `16.04M `17.04M 부도법인 ( 우축 ) 신설법인 ( 좌축 ) 자료 : 중소기업청, 금융결제원 기업경기실사지수 전 ( 全 ) 산업기업경기실사지수 (BSI) 는 `16년 11월부터회복세를보이다가 `17년 6월 77로지난달대비 3p 하락 부동산 임대업의기업경기실사지수 ( 업황실적기준 ) 는대선이후정치적불확실성이완화되면서 6월 80을기록하며회복세를보임 건설업은최근 5개월연속상승하였으나부동산규제강화의영향으로지난달대비 6p 하락 지역별취업자수 `17년 6월기준전국취업자수는 2,686만명으로전년동월대비 1.13% 증가 수도권의취업자수는 1,345만명으로전년동월대비 1.16% 증가 수도권사무직종사자수는 262만명으로전년동월대비 2.98% 증가 (`16년 6월 255만 ) ( 전년동월대비증감률, 단위 : %) 40 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M 전산업 건설업 부동산 임대업 자료 : 한국은행 -1 `11.06M `12.06M `13.06M `14.06M `15.06M `16.06M `17.06M 전국 수도권 자료 : 통계청

41 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 중국인관광객의급감으로숙박시설의수요는하락할것으로보이나향후동계올림픽이슈및중국인관광객수요의재상승여부가호텔부동산경기에밀접한영향이미칠것으로전망 국문판 국내관광산업동향 `16년말중국당국이사드에대한보복조치로방한단체관광판매를금지한데따른중국인관광객수의급감영향으로전체방한외래관광객수는감소, 금한령에의한관광객감소폭은 `15년메르스사태의수준보다는양호한상태임. 방한외국인수는 `11년 +11.3%, `12년 +13.7%, `13년 +9.3%, `14년 +16.6%, `15년 6.8%, `16년 +30.3% 로 15년을제외하고는꾸준히증가세를보이고있음. `17년은 `16년대비감소하여 `13년 ~`14년수준을보일것으로전망됨 방한외래관광객현황 단위 : 만명 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 관광 전체 자료 : 한국문화관광연구원 외국인방문객수의증감을국적별로살펴보면중국인관광객감소 ( 전년동기간대비 34.7% 하락 ) 의영향이큰것으로분석되며, 그외의 주요국가에서는증가함 중국관광객의감소분이기타국가의관광객증가분으로대체되며시장에대한충격이일부완화됨

42 Korea Appraisal Board 42 주요국가별방한외래객수변동국적별 ( 단위 : 천명 ) 연간 전년대비 (%) 1~5월 1~5월전년동기비 (%) 일본 3,289 3,519 2,748 2,280 1,838 2, 중국 2,220 2,837 4,327 6,127 5,984 8, , 대만 홍콩 미국 자료 : 한국문화관광연구원 국내호텔업동향 `16 년말실시한한국문화관광연구원의외래관광객실태조사에따르면주이용숙박시설형태에대한응답중호텔이 71.5%, 유스호스텔등 대체숙박시설이 19.2%, 친척 / 친구집이 6.8% 로호텔이용률이높은것으로조사되었으며그비중은전년도종일조사대비 3%p 가까이상승함 주요방문권역은서울이 78% 로가장높았으며제주가 20.2%, 경기가 13.1% 로뒤를이었음 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 정부에서 `12년부터한시적으로시행한 관광숙박시설확충을위한특별법 과관련하여해당법을서울시가수정보완하여시조례로지속운영함에따라서울의호텔공급증가세는꾸준히이어질것으로전망됨 한편, 관광사업체경기동향 (BSI) 에따르면호텔업업황및수익성은 `12년상반기까지 100을상회하였으나하반기이후 100 이하로고전하는모습임. `15년메르스여파로최저점으로하락한지수는 `16년하반기다소회복되는모습임관광사업체경기동향 (BSI) 업황 Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q `08 `09 `10 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 관광사업체경기동향 (BSI) 수익성 Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q `08 `09 `10 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 호텔업특급호텔 1, 2, 3 급호텔 주 : `16 년 4 분기수치는전망치임자료 : 한국문화관광연구원

43 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 국내관광산업현황과호텔업경기동향을종합적으로살펴보았을때단기적으로중국인관광객급감영향에따른숙박시설수요감소와 급격한호텔공급증가요인이함께작용하여호텔업계에부정적인영향을끼칠것으로보여호텔투자에신중을기할필요가있을것으로보임 장기적으로는내년평창동계올림픽호재및중국인외외국인관광객의꾸준한증가세에따라호텔에대한수요는증가할것으로예상되며, 중국당국의금한령조치가해제될경우호텔업계의시장분위기상승모멘텀이형성되어투자활성화가이루어질것으로전망 중국인관광객감소를단기적으로보았을때국내관광업계에는불황의요소가될것이나, 장기적으로새로운관광객유치를통한탈중국인중심관광시장에서벗어나중국외관광객방문증가등긍정적효과도존재함 국문판 서울호텔현황 `16 년 12 월기준, 서울의호텔은총 348 개, 전년대비 57 개증가. `15 년 12 월호텔업운영현황자료에따르면, 평균객실이용률은 68.9%, 판매객실평균요금은 139,425 원수준 호텔협회자료에의하면 `15년 12월서울호텔의객실숙박객수는약 573만명으로전년대비 40만명감소, 객실이용률은 68.9% 로전년대비 7.94%p 감소, 판매객실당평균요금은약 139,425원으로전년대비 13,335원하락한수준을보임 객실이용률수준 ( 미등급 : 75.75%, 1급 : 73.01%, 특2급 : 75% 순으로나타남 ) 객실숙박객수의비율은내국인약 27%, 외국인약 73% 수준객실숙박객수 ( 만명 ) 호텔업지표운용주체외국인내국인계객실이용률 (%) 판매객실평균요금 ( 원 ) 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 전체 , ,425 특1급 , ,226 특2급 ,458 96,764 1급 ,494 86,601 2급 ,533 64,230 3급 ,688 66,842 관광 , ,495 미등급 ,039 84,682 가족 , ,839 자료 : 호텔협회

44 Korea Appraisal Board 호텔공급량 ( 좌축 ) 누적 ( 우측 ) 자료 : 호텔협회 신규공급물량및공급예정호텔의입지는관광객의호텔수요가높은서울시중구, 종로구, 강남구에집중되는경향을보임 호텔부동산시장동향과전망 호텔부동산투자현황 중국관광객급감으로호텔투자시장도침체되고있으며투자자모집을앞두고있던호텔사모펀드, 리츠등이잇따라연기되거나무산되고있음 `16년상반기호텔공모펀드 ( 코람코호텔전문투자형사모부동산펀드, 티마크그랜드호텔공모펀드등 ) 가활성화되었으나, 중국의금한령이후국내호텔펀드및리츠설정사례가전무 일부투자자들은해외시장으로눈길을돌리고있는상황 주요투자상품으로미국브루클린소재매리어트호텔투자상품, KTB글로벌CREDebt전문투자형사모부동산투자신탁 1호 호텔부동산침체분위기는유커의감소효과와자금조달비용상승등의원인이복합적으로작용함 최근금리인상전말에따른자금조달비용의상승요인과사드사태까지겹쳐지며분위기가침체됨, 시중은행이호텔에대한 LTV조정및신규대출을중단하는사례가발생 최근시장분위기에기관및민간투자자들이투자를검토하던물건을잠정보류한상태이나호텔리츠펀드는최소보장임대료의안전장치를마련하고있어투자자의수익이일정부분보장되기때문에투자가치가여전히존재함

45 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 호텔부동산시장전망 2018 평창동계올림픽의호재에중국과의관계개선으로인한금한령조치가해제된다면현재진행되고있는호텔시장및호텔투자시장침체분위기가해소될것이며우량물건을대상으로펀드, 리츠형태의투자가이루어질것임 현재호텔부동산시장의침체분위기는평창동계올림픽호재에따라다소진정세로전환될것이며, 중국과의관계개선에따른금한령해제조치가취해진다면강력한시장분위기상승모멘텀이발생할것임 최근인터컨티넨탈호텔그룹, 메리어트인터네셔날등외국계호텔업계의한국시장투자확대를추진 해외유명호텔업계의투자확대에의한국내호텔시장구도의다각화및최근증가세인분양형호텔등으로호텔투자관련포트폴리오다양화가예상됨 국문판 자본시장법개정으로 16년부터최소투자금액은 500만원으로부동산이나실물자산에간접투자할수있는길이열렸으며, 호텔시장분위기가호조세로변화하여신규호텔부동산펀드가설정될경우일반투자자등을중심으로간접투자가크게증가할것으로전망 6.19부동산대책이발표된이후아파트분양권전매가제한되는권역이늘어나며전매제한, 대출규제등부동산규제에서다소자유로운수익형부동산상품은투자대안으로선택될가능성이높음 호텔부동산시장동향과전망

46 Korea Appraisal Board 46 전문가칼럼 * Jones Lang Lasalle, JLL Real Estate Intelligence Service 해외상업용부동산시장동향 ( 아시아태평양지역 ) 올해의순조로운출발 전문가칼럼 `17 년아시아태평양지역상업용부동산시장은 `16 년보다상대적으로거래량이증가하면서순조로운출발을함 저금리환경에서부동산의높은수익률은투자자의관심을유도하는데도움이되었으며, 중국은엄격한자본통제에도불구하고 1 분기호 텔부문에서기록적인거래실적을보임 대부분의오피스시장수급안정 전반적인임대활동은상대적으로안정적이었으며, 멜버른, 마닐라및도쿄에서는금융및기술관련기업을중심으로활발한거래가이루 어짐 아시아태평양전역의신규오피스공급감소 아시아태평양시장에예정되어있던신규오피스공급의절반가량이 1 분기에완공되었고공급량은전년동기대비 19% 감소 대부분의시장에서공실률은계속감소하는모습을보이며베이징및도쿄등의시장에서공실률은 5% 미만으로유지되었으나, 상하이는 막대한공급증가로공실률이 4%p 상승 일부중요시장에서의활발한사무실임대성장 아시아태평양지역평균임차료는전기대비 1.0%, 전년동기대비 3.1% 상승함. 시드니는주요사무실에대한지속적인수요로인해가장큰 폭의공실률감소를기록 * 이원고는 JLL(2017), Growth on track as Asia Pacific surges ahead, Asia Pacific Property Digest Q1 2017, JLL 에근거하여작성되었음

47 KAB Office Report Q. Vol.7 소매업시장을선도하는 F&B F&B 사업자와아동브랜드는여전히중국의 Tier1 시장에서주요수요층이었음. 한편, 싱가포르의리테일판매실적은불규칙적으로변동 하였고, 임차수요가미미하여계약의조기종결을요구하는임차인들이증가하였음 시드니의소매업체실적은분야별로다양하게나타났으며의류분야의경쟁이치열하여할인영업및업체파산등으로이어짐 최근물류부문의수요동향 국문판 도쿄와시드니등아시아태평양시장에서전자상거래업체및 3PL 회사의지속적인수요가발생하고있음 홍콩의경우 3PL과소매업은신규임차수요를선도하였으나현재는관망세를보이면서기존물건의계약갱신형태를보임. 싱가포르의경우 1분기신규완공이거의없었기때문에기존완공된건물에임차수요가집중 시드니에서는 design and construct projects 및투자수요에기인하여오피스공급이제한되어있는상황 중국은주택규제를강화, 싱가포르는완화 중국은많은도시에서주택구입및신규공급에대한엄격한정책을도입하였으며그에따라중국의 Tier 1 시장에서의판매량에지속적인 영향을미쳤음 ㅇ싱가포르정부는 3 월에정책규제를완화함으로써주요지역의주택판매량이 1 년전보다약간증가한수준으로시장심리가개선 홍콩에서는인지세가 15% 까지인상되었고, 금리가인상될것이라는기대가높아졌음에도불구하고현재주택투자가많은모습을보임 전문가칼럼 부동산자본투자동향 아시아태평양상업부동산시장의투자규모는 `17년 1분기기준전년동기대비 1% 상승한 253억달러를기록하였으나호주와홍콩의공급량부족으로전분기대비 43% 감소한모습 투자규모의 15~20% 는소매업등이차지하였고호텔자산은약 30%, 오피스부문은지역별총거래량의약 50% 차지 국제펀드는일본, 한국, 상하이등에서핵심자산을계속인수하며아시아지역의투자자들은활발했지만중국인들의투자율은미미한모습이었고, 호주에서해외투자자들의활동은계속활발하게진행 임대료상승률을앞지른자본가치성장률 아시아태평양지역의사무실부문평균분기별자본가치성장률은 1분기에 1.8% 를기록, 시드니와멜버른은임대료가상승함에따라자본가치가각각전분기대비 6.4%, 4.6% 상승함 상하이의자본가치성장률은임대료증가율과비슷한수준으로조사되었고싱가포르는자본가치하락을예상했으나유동성증가의원인으로미미한하락을기록함

48 Korea Appraisal Board 48 참고수치자료 Figure 1: Offie Rental & Capital Value Changes, Yearly % Changes, Q Figure 2: Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Q 30 Rental Value Capital Values Sydney Melbourne Hong Kong Manila Tokyo Mumbai Figures relate to the major submarket in each put a period afer city Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q Shanghai Bangkok Beijing Seoul Singapore Jakarta USD Billion Figures refer to transactions over USD 5 million in offie, retail, hotels and industrial. Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q 1Q 2017 $25.3 bill 1% y-o-y Q17 Japan China Australia Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Other Figure 3: Rental Property Clocks, Q Grade A Office Hong Kong Auckland Tokyo Beijing Shanghai Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Prime Retail Bangkok, Tokyo^, Wellington Beijing Auckland 전문가칼럼 Sydney Manila, Guangzhou, Melbourne Osaka, Wellington Bangkok Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Seoul, Singapore, Adelaide Kuala Lumpur Manila, Jakarta Shanghai Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Hong Kong^ Singapore Canberra Bengaluru Ho Chi Minh City Delhi, Chennai Mumbai Perth Taipei Hanoi Brisbane Mumbai Delhi Bengaluru Chennai, Melbourne*, Sydney* SE Queensland* Guangzhou Note: Clock positions for the office sector relate to the main submarket in each city. *Regional ^High Street Shops/Multi-level High Street Prime Residential Industrial Jakarta Tokyo Beijing, Auckland Hong Kong Shanghai Guangzhou, Manila Beijing, Bangkok Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Kuala Lumpur Wellington Manila Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Singapore (Logistics) Hong Kong Singapore* Sydney Shanghai Melbourne Brisbane Singapore (Business Park) *Luxurious *Logistics space(hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Greater Tokyo) Source: JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service), Q

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50 2017.2Q. Vol.7 KAB OFFICE REPORT prime office 비매품 대구광역시동구이노밸리로 291( 신서동 919-2) Tel