Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 Seoul office market post stronger net absorption across three core business districts JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 1
Seoul Office 2 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
Seoul Office Economy According to the Bank of Korea s latest Economic Outlook Report 2018, exports represent positive growth with semiconductors at the centre; however, domestic trends seem to be stagnating momentum, with a decrease in investment and a slump in employment. Exports in slowed significantly due to the decrease in working days (-3.5 days) compared to the first half, but the semiconductor market remained healthy. As with most categories, shipments (-55.5%) and wireless communication devices (-33.1%) continued to suffer except semiconductors (+28.3%) and petroleum products (+13.5%) owing to the effects of fewer working days. However, daily average exports rose 8.5%, similar to that of the previous month (+8.7%), indicating overall export volume still remain in decent health. For the employment sector, growth in the total employed population was sluggish. According to Korea Statistics Employment trends, the number of employed workers stood at 27 million in September 2018, an increase of just 0.2% from the previous year. This reflects the steep rise in the minimum wage weighing on the job market. By industry, the number employed workers has shown improvement, with 6.8% growth in health and social welfare services, 9.3% growth in information and communications and 6.3% growth in finance and insurance. GDP and CPI (Unit: % growth y-o-y) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% On the other hand, facility management employment in the business support and rental service industry declined 9.3%, wholesale and retail employment declined 2.6% and accommodation and restaurant business employment declined 3.8%. While various government policies and programs supposedly to stimulate consumption and job growth are currently in place, the employment market has now become the biggest negative factor for consumption and the economy. Forecasts Facility investment should continue to grow at a low rate next year. Investments on IT manufacturing sector especially for Semiconductor are expected to improve sometime next year while investment activities on displays sector are expected to be softer due to delays. Construction investment is also expected to fall 0.5% in 2019. In particular, engineering construction will continue to decrease due to SOC budget cuts by the government. Consumer spending is likely to continue to improve on the back of government income policies implemented in September, such as raising the basic pension and payment of child allowances. Consumption is expected to rise 2.7% y-o-y in 2018. Retail sales recorded 6.0% growth in August, similar to July s 5.7% growth. The consumer sentiment index rose to 101.7 from 99.2 the previous month, which was slightly above the 100 benchmark, but still lower than the first half. 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bank of Korea, Oxford Economics Employment by Industries Unit: 1,000 people Manufacturing Financial and insurance activities Total number of employees Source: Statistics Korea GDP, real, LCU Construction Real estate and leasing activities Consumer price index Wholesale and retail trade Professional, scientific and technical activities Unit: 1,000 people 5,000 27,500 4,500 27,000 4,000 26,500 3,500 26,000 3,000 25,500 2,500 25,000 2,000 24,500 1,500 24,000 1,000 23,500 500 23,000 0 2010. 3/4 2011. 3/4 2012. 3/4 2013. 3/4 2014. 3/4 2015. 3/4 2016. 3/4 2017. 3/4 2018. 3/4 22,500 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 3
Demand / Vacancy In, net absorption of Seoul Grade A office space was recorded at 106,706 sqm, showing positive demand across all districts. The figure is the highest since 4Q16, with positive demand in the CBD and Yeouido. However, as new completions such as Centropolis and Gangnam N Tower increased in, the overall Seoul office vacancy rate rose 70 bps from the previous quarter to 13.1%. Signature Tower, which has continually attracted new tenants since Amore Pacific s movement, also contributed to the district s positive demand, finalising contracts with SK Encar (GFA 2,800 sqm) and Tiffany (GFA 2,300 sqm) in. Jongno Tower, which was recently occupied by WeWork, signed C-Trip and McDonald's during the quarter, thereby reducing its vacant space, and Heungkuk Life Insurance Building also reduced its vacant space following the move-in of Kumho Tire, which recently sold its headquarters building. Major Grade B deals in included KG Group (GFA 8,300 sqm), scheduled to take up eight floors of Ace Tower, and KEB Hana Bank call centre s takeup (GFA 5,300 sqm) at Center Place. Breaking down the demand categories for Seoul Grade A and B offices in, demand for relocation was the highest, at 33%, followed by 25% for upgrade demand in the same district and 20% for new business demand. Most of the new business demand in the quarter was driven by co-working companies, mainly including Lotte, which newly entered, along with existing players - WeWork and Spark Plus. The leasing activities of these shared space players are primarily focused on the Grade B Gangnam office market during the quarter. CBD Net absorption in the CBD district in was 41,186 sqm, an increase over the previous quarter, driven by increased leasing activity from conglomerates. The district s vacancy rate reached 17.7%, up 270 bps from the previous quarter. Net Absorption for Grade A Offices in Seoul Unit: m2 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CBD Yeouido Gangnam Demand Breakdown Demand Type, Relocation Breakdown, Major move-ins in the CBD district during included SK Innovation (GFA 10,300 sqm), which moved from SK Seorin Building to Gran Seoul; SK Shipping (GFA 5,400 sqm) and Dongbu Steel (GFA 4,600 sqm) entered Seoul Square; and Meritz Fire & Marine Engineering (GFA 3,600 sqm) completed its move to Booyoung Building from the same ditrict s Maritz Bongnae-dong Building, showing the relocation of upgrades in the CBD district. Others 7% Expansion 13% New Business 20% Consolidation 2% Upgrade 25% Relocation 33% Relocation from sub markets 15% Relocation from the otjer cores 17% Relocation from the same core district 68% 4 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
Vacancy Rate for Grade A Offices in Seoul 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Yeouido Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 During, net absorption of Yeouido Grade A office was recorded at 49,601 sqm, showing strong demand similar to 2Q18 and resulting in a 436-bps q-o-q decrease in the vacancy rate, to 14.6%. Contributing to the decline was the positive demand seen by major buildings such as IFC and FKI in the Yeouido district. The biggest contribution to the decline in the district s vacancy rate was the completed move-in of KB Kookmin Bank (GFA 16,600 sqm) into FKI Tower, with a take-up of five floors devoted to the bank's computer server maintenance. The quarter also saw the relocation of Ernest Fund (GFA 1,600 sqm) and a new contract from Seoul Guarantee Insurance (GFA 1,300 sqm). In addition to domestic and foreign financial companies, companies in CBD the Gangnam relocating to IFC included ANZ (GFA 1,800 sqm), MMC (GFA 5,200 sqm) and P&G (GFA 3,000 sqm). The positive trend is expected to continue for the time being due to the major discount benefits of prime buildings, the rapid rise of asset managers in new hubs and steady leasing demand in the CBD and Gangnam district. Overall CBD Yeouido Gangnam Gangnam Net absorption of Gangnam Grade A office space during was 15,919 sqm, a positive figure from the previous quarter. The average vacancy rate in the district rose 120 bps q-o-q to 6.7% due to the completion of Gangnam N Tower. Although net absorption was weaker compared to other districts, the current low vacancy rate in the district reflects the relative lack of large-scale vacant space in Grade A buildings rather than insufficient demand. New lease contracts in Gangnam district included Lotte (GFA 5,300 sqm) and Korbit (GFA 1,600 sqm) on three floors in Gangnam N Tower. At ASEM Tower, Astrazeneca (GFA 3,200 sqm) and Luxottica (GFA 2,300 sqm) signed new lease agreements, and VIVA Republic completed an additional contract. In the Grade B leasing market, there is intense demand for co-working space. WeWork (GFA 13,800 sqm) and Spark Plus (GFA 9,000 sqm), which are major co-working space companies, signed new large-scale contracts at Textile Center and Seocho Tower, respectively. Supply During the quarter, two new Grade A buildings, Centropolis (GFA 37,122 pyung) in the CBD district and Gangnam N Tower (GFA 15,464 pyung) finally came on stream, providing fresh new premium office space in the CBD and Gangnam district, respectively. In the case of Centropolis, it is known that no tenant leases have been signed so far, but Kumho Asiana is currently discussing relocation after the sale of its existing Gwanghwamun office. In the case of Gangnam N Tower, a six-floor contract has already been completed, a sign of strong demand. In particular, there are many potential contracts currently under discussion, so leasing is expected to be completed relatively soon. There will be no new supply of Grade A office space in major districts through end-2018. In 2019, the Seosomun 5 district (GFA 38,255 sqm) in Seosomunro, Jung-gu will complete. Summit Tower(GFA 144,472 sqm), located in Euljiro 4-ga, a fringe CBD area, will also complete in 2019. Rents The Seoul Grade A office average overall effective rent was KRW 89,984 in, an increase of 1.4% from the previous quarter. It is believed that building owners witnessed signs of improving demand in the rental market, reduce their rentfree period, leading to effective rent increases. Per districts, the CBD s effective rent reached KRW 92,475 in, growing 0.57% q-o-q. In the Yeouido district, the effective rent in rose 0.85% from the previous quarter to KRW 68,952, showing an upward trend since 2Q18. JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 5
The recent reduction in the Yeouido vacancy rate was due to the successful recruitment of new leases, such as IFC and FKI Tower, which reflected declining average rent-free periods in compared to the previous quarter. Net Effective Rents for Grade A Offices in Seoul by districts Unit: KRW/py/month 100,000 90,000 Meanwhile, the average monthly effective rent in Gangnam was KRW 98,880 in, an increase of 0.78% q-o-q. In addition, Gangnam s vacancy rate was the lowest of the three major districts, reflecting an average rent-free period of less than two months. 80,000 70,000 60,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall CBD Yeouido Gangnam Capital Markets Due to quality investment stocks and ample liquidity, the cumulative volume of office building deals in surpassed KRW 8 trillion. This was more than the total investment volume in all of 2017 and was largely due to active transaction activity in large buildings in Gangnam. Besides, the elevated interest in the Gangnam office market, supported by stable occupancy and firm leasing demand, is sparking demand for both Grade A and Grade B stock. Samsung C&T Tower (81,115 sqm) in Gangnam was the biggest deal in, sale price per pyung was KRW 30.5 million, breaking the previous record high price per pyung from the sale of K Twin Towers to Samsung SRA Asset Management Co (KRW 28.1 million per pyung). This was also the first office building sale to exceed KRW 30 million per pyung. The final deal was confirmed by a consortium of NH Investment & Securities Co and Koramco Asset Trust from Samsung C&T for KRW 748.4 billion. The second largest deal concluded in was the sale of the brand new Gangnam N Tower, which was traded from Yeoksam PFV to KB Real Estate Trust for KRW 452.5 billion. Another major deal in Gangnam was the sale of Gangnam P Tower (GFA 44,073 sqm), which Han River Asset Management Co purchased for about KRW 318 billion from Koramco Asset Trust. The deal is known to have been made in a share type deal in which REITs are transferred. In addition, the acquisition of Gangnam Finance Plaza (GFA 24,179 sqm) by Marston Investment Management from Pebblestone Asset Management was completed in at a transaction price of about KRW 183 Investment Volume Unit: KRW trillion 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Unit: # of transactions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Investment Volume billion. It is known that Pebblestone Asset Management made about KRW 32.1 billion in capital gains from the deal. In the CBD district, IGIS Asset Management purchased the Samil Building (GFA 35,203 sqm) in Jongnogu for about KRW 178 billion from Small Rock Investment. The deal s major investors are SK D&D and US-based global asset management firm Green Oak. The deal is Green Oak s first known domestic real estate investment. No. of sales (RHS) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 6 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
Market Yields for Grade A offices in Seoul 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Spread Overall Market Yields 10 Year Government Bond Yields Major Grade A office deals scheduled for the include Seoul Square, Centropolis and the Booyeong Eulji Building. Meanwhile, it is known that the vendor and purchaser of Seoul Square are practically identical in relation to each other - vendor: Keppel Capital Korea; purchaser: Keppel Asset Management - causing difficulties in the sale due to conflict of understanding. In addition, State Tower Namsan, which will be the biggest deal in the first half of 2019, is an investment made by Abu Dhabi Investment Corp (ADIA). CBRE GI, an asset manager for the building, is known to have selected JLL and Cushman & Waikefield as main agents for the sale. Forecasts According to an economic outlook report released by the Bank of Korea in October, the domestic economy will continue to adjust for investment in 2018, but exports and consumption are expected to flow smoothly. It is predicted that GDP will grow 2.7% in both 2018 and 2019, as exports and consumption will continue to grow in 2019. In addition, the Bank of Korea is expecting gradual improvement of the job market, which has been sluggish this year, due to the government's job and income support policies. However, it is expected that the recovery will be slow due to sluggish manufacturing and restructuring. The consumer price index is expected to rise 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. Net absorption of Grade A office space in Seoul in the second half of 2018 will be favourable due to new lease demand, including active relocations and upgrades due to new supply of Grade A office buildings in major districts in 2018. At the same time, the recent recovery in demand in the Yeouido district also reflects this trend. However, the aggressive expansion of co-working office companies over the past few quarters is expected to slow down in major Grade A offices. We expect a continued recovery in rent, but we believe that the pace of recovery will be limited due to new supply in major districts. By district, the rent-free period is the biggest rent variable. In the CBD, rentfree periods are expected to rise in old buildings or newly supplied buildings, but recent reductions in rent-free periods in buildings with active leasing agreements suggest the maintaining of a similar level in the overall CBD district. In Yeouido, the recent movement to reduce rent-free periods may continue for the next few quarters, but in the medium term, rent-free periods will likely remain the same. This is because there is still a large volume of vacant space in the district, so landlords need to resolve the vacant space before the completion of the new Parc 1 Tower in 2020. Also other reason is the key tenants relocation to the other districts from Yeouido, schedule in 2019. In Gangnam, with high potential demand in the district, leasing contracts for new supplies are likely to be completed by 2019. Moreover, it is thought that the length of rentfree periods will gradually decrease, so effective rent increases will be the fastest among the three districts. Investment markets are expected to reach record-high trading volume this year due to quality stocks, a slow rise in interest rates and abundant liquidity. Also, investor sentiment in Korea, which focuses on core assets, will continue to be positive. The cap rate is expected to remain at a 4.4% level, similar to the current level, through end-2018. From a medium-term perspective, investment activity is expected to remain strong as more local investors try to allocate capital. However, the pace is expected to be somewhat low due to rising interest rates and changing economic cycles. JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 7
Major leasing deals in Contract Move in Tenant Industry GFA (sqm) Moved From Moved To Kookmin Bank (IT-related organisation) Finance/Banking 16,608 New Business FKI Tower (Yeouido Grade A) Yogiyo Service 10,933 KG Tower (Gangnam Grade B) Maje Star City Tower II (Seocho Grade B) SK Innovation Others 10,300 SK Seorin Building (CBD Grade A) Gran Seoul (CBD Grade A) KG Group (including e-daily) IT 8,265 Namsan Central Tower (CBD Grade B) Ace Tower (CBD Grade B) Lotte Others 5,553 Expansion Lotte Non-life Insurance Building (CBD Grade B) SK Shipping Manufacturing 5,376 SK Namsan Building (CBD Grade B) Seoul Square (CBD Grade A) Lotte s Coworking Office (brand name unknown) Coworking 5,337 New Business Gangnam N Tower (Gangnam Grade A) Dongbu Steel Manufacturing 4,597 LG Seoul Station Building (CBD Grade B) Seoul Square (CBD Grade A) Meritz Fire Finance/Banking 3,597 Meritz Fire Building Bongrae (CBD Grade C) Booyoung Taepyungro Building (CBD Grade A) Office Rental Information Effective Rent (Based on GFA) (KRW/pyung/month) q-o-q y-o-y Seoul 89,990 1.40% -1.10% CBD 92,481 1.59% -0.04% Yeouido 68,957 0.85% -7.17% Gangnam 98,886 0.88% 1.15% Major Investment Activity Location Building Name Seller Buyer Deal Area Price Gangnam Samsung C&T Building Samsung C&T NH Inv & Securities, Koramco 81,115 m 2 KRW 748.4 billion Gangnam Gangnam N Tower Yeoksam PFV (Next Properties) KB Real Estate Trust 51,126 m 2 KRW 452 billion Gangnam Gangnam P Tower Koramco Hangang Asset Management 44,073 m 2 KRW 318 billion Gangnam Gangnam Finance Plaza Pebblestone Asset Management Mastern Investment Management 24,179 m 2 KRW 183 billion CBD Samil Building Small rock Investment IGIS Asset Management 35,203 m 2 KRW 178 billion 8 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
Seoul Office Economy 한국은행의 2018 년하반기경제전망보고서에따르면, 반도체를중심으로한수출은양호한증가세를보이고있으나투자감소와고용부진으로인해내수흐름은정체된모습임. 3 분기수출은연휴로인한영업일수감소 (-3.5 일 ) 로인해상반기에비해성장세가크게둔화하였으나, 반도체를위주로양호한흐름을지속. 조업일수의영향으로반도체 (28.3%) 와석유제품 (13.5%) 을제외한대부분의품목에서감소한가운데, 선박 (-55.5%) 과무선통신기기 (-33.1%) 도부진을지속. 하지만일평균수출액이전월 (8.7%) 과유사한수준인 8.5% 증가하여수출흐름은양호한것으로판단됨. 시장심리에부담을주었음을반영함. 산업별로는보건업및사회복지서비스업 (6.8%), 정보통신업 (9.3%), 금융및보험업 (6.3%) 등에서증가. 실질 GDP 성장률및물가상승률 (Unit: % growth y-o-y) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 한편, 사업시설관리 사업지원및임대서비스업 (-9.3%), 도매및소매업 (-2.6%) 숙박및음식점업 (-3.8%) 등에서감소. 정부일자리 소득지원정책이이어지고있지만, 고용시장은소비와경제에대한가장큰부정적인요인이되고있음. Forecasts 설비투자는내년에도낮은증가세를이어갈전망. IT 제조업은반도체를중심으로내년중개선될전망이며, 디스플레이는투자지연등으로큰폭조정될예정. 금년중건설투자또한 0.5% 감소할전망. 특히중앙정부 SOC 예산감축등으로토목건설의감소세가이어질예정임. 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 실질GDP성장률물가상승률 Source: Bank of Korea, Oxford Economics 민간소비의경우 9 월중시행된기초연금인상, 아동수당지급등소득에대한정부정책등에힘입어완만한개선흐름을지속할전망. 금년중민간소비는전년동기대비 2.7% 증가할예정. KDI 경제동향에따르면 8 월소매판매율은전월 (5.7%) 과유사한 6.0% 의증가율을기록하였으며, 9 월소비자심리지수는전월 (99.2) 보다상승한 101.7 을기록하며기준치 (100) 를소폭상회하였으나상반기에비해낮은수준을보임. 한편고용부문에서는취업자수증가폭이미미한가운데, 통계청고용동향에따르면 2018 년 9 월취업자는약 2,700 만명으로전년동월대비 0.2% 증가에그침. 이는최저임금의급격한상승이고용 산업별취업자수 단위 : 1,000 명 제조업금융및보험업 전체취업자수 Source: Statistics Korea 건설업부동산업및임대업 도매및소매업전문, 과학및기술서비스업 단위 : 1,000 명 5,000 27,500 4,500 27,000 4,000 26,500 3,500 26,000 3,000 25,500 2,500 25,000 2,000 24,500 1,500 24,000 1,000 23,500 500 23,000 0 22,500 2010. 3/4 2011. 3/4 2012. 3/4 2013. 3/4 2014. 3/4 2015. 3/4 2016. 3/4 2017. 3/4 2018. 3/4 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 9
Demand / Vacancy 2018 년 3 분기서울 A 등급오피스의평균순흡수면적은 106,706 m 2 를기록하며서울의세주요중심권역에서모두긍정적인수요를보임. 이수치는 2016 년 4 분기이후가장높은것으로최근도심과여의도의양호한임차수요에힘입었음. 하지만 3 분기센트로폴리스와강남 N 타워와같은신규오피스공급확대에따라서울오피스공실률은전분기대비 0.7% 증가한 13.1% 로조사되었음. 2018 년 3 분기의서울 A, B 등급오피스수요를분석한결과이전수요 (Relocation) 수요가차지하는비중이 33% 로가장높았고, 그다음으로동일권역내에서의업그레이드수요와신규 (New Business) 가차지하는비중이각각 25% 및 20% 로조사되었음. 긍정적인수요에기여하고있는시그니처타워는이번분기에도 SK 엔카 ( 약 2,800 m 2 ) 및 Tiffany ( 약 2,300 m 2 ) 등과거래완료. 최근위워크가입주한종로타워는이번분기도 C-Trip 및맥도널드와계약하며추가적으로공실을낮췄고흥국생명빌딩 서울 Grade A 오피스순흡수면적 단위 : m 2 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 역시최근본사를매각한금호타이어이전으로공실의상당부분해소. 금번분기도심권역내대표적인 Grade B 임대차사례로는에이스타워의약 8 개층에대해입주한 KG 그룹 ( 약 8,300 m 2 ) 과센터플레이스에입주한 KEB 하나은행콜센터 ( 약 5,300 m 2 ) 등이있었음. 이번분기신규 (New Business) 수요의상당부분은코워킹업체들로공유오피스시장에신규로진출하는롯데를비롯하여위워크, 스파크플러스와같은기존업체들의강남오피스시장임대에기인한것으로지난분기에이어확장세가지속되는모습을보임. 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 도심여의도강남 CBD 금번분기도심권역의 A 등급기준순흡수면적은 41,186 m 2 로대기업임대활동증가등으로전분기대비증가. 공실률은신규공급으로전분기대비 2.7% 증가한 17.7% 를기록. 이번분기대표적인입주사례로는, 그랑서울로입주한 SK 이노베이션 ( 약 10,300 m 2 ) 및서울스퀘어에입주한 SK 해운 ( 약 5,400 m 2 ) 과동부제철 ( 약 4,600 m 2 ) 이있었음. 또한같은권역인메리츠봉래동사옥에서부영빌딩으로메리츠화재 ( 약 3,600 m 2 ) 가입주를완료하며권역내업그레이드이전을보임. 아모레퍼시픽이전이후지속적으로신규임차인을유치를하며권역내 오피스수요카테고리 Demand Type, Others 7% Expansion 13% New Business 20% Consolidation 2% Upgrade 25% Relocation 33% Relocation Breakdown, Relocation from sub markets 15% Relocation from the otjer cores 17% Relocation from the same core district 68% 10 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
서울 Grade A 오피스공실률 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Yeouido Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3 분기여의도 A 등급오피스의순흡수면적은 49,601 m 2 로지난분기이어강한수요세기록하면서, 공실률은전분기대비 4.4% 하락한 14.6% 를기록. 이는 IFC 와전경련타워등여의도주요빌딩들에대한긍정적인수요의영향에기인. 금번분기권역내공실률하락에가장크게기여한빌딩은전경련타워로 KB 국민은행 ( 약 16,600 m 2 ) 의전산서버유지관련조직이 5 개층에대한입주하였고, 그이외에도어니스트펀드 ( 약 1,600 m 2 ) 의이전과서울보증보험 ( 약 1,300 m 2 ) 의신규계약등이있었음. IFC 역시올해초부터이어지고있는강한수요세가지속되는모습. 국내외금융사뿐만아니라도심및강남에서상주하던여러회사들도 IFC 로이전중으로주요계약사례는 ANZ ( 약 1,800 m 2 ), MMC ( 약 5,200 m 2 ), P&G ( 약 3,000 m 2 ) 등으로조사됨. 프라임급빌딩들의대폭적인임대료할인혜택, 이들빌딩들이자산운용사들의새로운거점으로급부상하는점, 도심과강남권역에서의꾸준한이전수요등이지속되고있어당분간긍정적인수요세를유지할것으로보임. Overall 도심여의도강남 Gangnam 강남 A 등급오피스의 3 분기순흡수면적은 15,919 m 2 로저번분기대비양호한수치를기록하였으며, 최근강남 N 타워의준공완료에따른신규공급으로평균공실률은 1.2% 상승한 6.7% 를기록. 비록순흡수면적이기타권역에비하여미미하지만이는신규수요가저조하다기보다권역내낮은공실률이보여주듯 A 급건물들의대규모임차공간이없어비교적저조한임대차활동으로이어진것으로분석됨. 3 분기강남권역내 A 급빌딩의주요신규계약사례로는강남 N 타워과롯데 ( 약 5,300 m 2 ) 와코빗 ( 약 1,600 m 2 ) 으로각 3 개층에대한임차계약을체결함. 아셈타워에는아스트라제네카 ( 약 3,200 m 2 ) 와룩소티카 ( 약 2,300 m 2 ) 가신규임대차계약을체결했고아크플레이스는 VIVA REPUBLICA 와추가계약완료. 금번분기권역내 B 등급임대차시장은코워킹수요가집중되는모습. 주요코워킹업체들인위워크 ( 약 13,800 m 2 ) 와스파크플러스 ( 약 9,000 m 2 ) 가각각섬유센터와대륭서초타워에큰규모의신규계약을체결하였음. Supply 2018 년 3 분기주요 3 대권역에공급된 A 급신규오피스는도심권역내센트로폴리스 ( 연면적 141,475 m 2 ) 와강남권역의강남 N 타워 ( 연면적 51,119 m 2 ) 로오랜기간을거쳐마침내완공. 센트로폴리스는현재까지임대차계약을체결한임차인은없는것으로알려졌으나금호아시아나가현재기존광화문사옥매각이후거점이전을센트로폴리스와논의중인것으로알려짐. 강남 N 타워의경우완공된지얼마되지않았지만 6 개층에이미계약완료하며건실한수요세를보임. 특히향후에도현재협의중인잠재적계약들이많이있는것으로조사되어상대적으로빠른시일내임대가완료될것으로예상됨. 올해는더이상주요 3 대권역내 A 등급오피스의신규공급은없을예정이며, 2019 년에도도심권역내중구서소문로에위치한서소문 5 지구 ( 연면적 38,255m 2 ) 프로젝트를제외하고없음. 다만, 도심권역내중심부에서상당히떨어진을지로 4 가에내년초에써밋타워 ( 연면적 144,472m 2 ) 가완공될예정. Rents 2018 년 3 분기서울 A 등급오피스의평균실질임대료는 89,984 원 / 평으로전분기대비 1.4% 상승. 이는건물주들이임대시장의수요개선세를나타내자렌트프리의일부를축소하면서실질임대료상승으로이어진것으로판단. 권역별로실질임대료는도심권역이 92,475 원 / 평으로전분기대비 0.57% 상승하였고여의도권역의경우전분기대비 0.85% 정도상승. 특히여의도권역의경우 IFC 나전경련 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 11
타워등에서성공적인신규임차인유치로최근공실률을대폭줄이면서평균렌트프리기간이전분기대비하락한것에영향을받은것으로분석됨. 한편, 강남권역의월평균실질임대료는평당 98,880 원으로전분기대비 0.78% 상승하며현재지속적인임대료상승을시현중. 서울 Grade A 오피스권역별실질임대료 단위 : 원 / 월 / 평 100,000 90,000 80,000 주요세권역중가장낮은공실률로인해평균렌트프리기간이현 2 개월이채안되는수준을보이고있음. 70,000 60,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capital Markets Overall 도심여의도강남 매매시장은양질의매물과풍부한유동성으로인해, 이번 3 분기까지의누적오피스빌딩거래규모가 8 조원을넘어선것으로조사. 이는작년한해총거래액을훌쩍넘어선수치임. 이는강남권역에서의대형빌딩의활발한거래활동이크게기인한것으로판단됨. 또한, 강남권역의견고한임대수요로인해강남오피스시장의관심이높아지면서 A, B 등급오피스에대한수요가급증하는추세. 2018 년 3 분기주요한거래사례로는강남권역의삼성물산서초타워 ( 연면적 81,115 m 2 ) 로, 평당매각가 3,050 만원으로거래됨. 이는기존최고가였던삼성 SRA 자산운용이매입한더케이트윈타워의매각가 ( 평당 2,810 만원 ) 를경신한것으로, 오피스빌딩중최초로평당 3000 만원을넘어선최초사례. 매수자는 NH 투자증권과코람코자산신탁의컨소시엄으로 7,484 억에최종거래가확정. 또한 KB 부동산신탁은이번분기신규공급된강남 N 타워 ( 연면적 51,119 m 2 ) 를역삼 PFV 로부터약 4,520 억에매입완료함. 강남권역의또다른주요거래사례로는강남 P 타워 ( 연면적 44,073 m 2 ) 로한강에셋자산운용이코람코자산신탁으로부터약 3,180 억에매입을완료. 해당거래는리츠 (REITs) 주식을양도받는셰어딜 (Share deal) 방식으로진행된것으로알려짐. 또한, 강남파이낸스플라자 ( 연면적 24,179 m 2 ) 는마스턴투자운용이페블스톤자산운용으로부터인수를완료하며거래가는약 1,830 억으로페블스톤자산운용은해당거래를통해약 321 억원의시세차익을남긴것으로알려짐. 상업용오피스거래규모 단위 : 조 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 오피스거래규모 도심권역에서는이지스자산운용이종로구에위치한삼일빌딩 ( 연면적 35,203m 2 ) 을스몰록인베스트먼트로부터약 1,780 억에매입을완료. 해당거래의주요투자자는 SK D&D 와미국계글로벌자산운용사그린오크로, 그린오크의경우해당거래가국내부동산투자로는최초인것으로알려짐. 추후거래예정에있는 A 등급주요오피스들은도심권역의서울스퀘어, 스테이트타워남산, 센트로폴리스, 부영을지빌딩등이있음. 거래수 단위 : 거래수 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 12 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
서울 Grade A 오피스시장수익률 (Cap-rate) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecasts 스프레드시장수익률 (Cap rate) 10 년만기국고채수익률 한편, 서울스퀘어의경우매도측케펠캐피탈코리아와매수측케펠자산운용이계열관계에있어사실상매도인과매수인이같아이해상충문제로매각에난항을겪고있는것으로알려짐. 또한내년초상반기가장큰거래가될예정인스테이트타워남산은중동최대국부펀드인아부다비투자청 (ADIA) 이투자한물건으로, 해당빌딩의자산운용사인 CBRE GI 는최근매각주관사로 JLL 과쿠시먼앤드웨이크필드를선정한것으로알려짐. 한국은행이 10 월발표한경제전망보고서에따르면, 금년국내경제는투자조정이이어지겠으나수출과소비가양호한흐름을보일전망. 2019 년에도계속해서수출 소비중심의성장세가이어져 GDP 는 2018 년과 2019 년모두 2.7% 수준을나타낼것으로전망하였음. 또한, 한국은행은금년부진했던고용시장의경우정부의일자리및소득지원정책등의영향으로점차나아질것으로전망. 하지만자동차 조선등제조업의업황부진및구조조정등의이유로 회복속도는완만할것으로전망함. 소비자물가상승률은 2018 년중 1.6%, 2019 년중 1.7% 를나타낼것으로전망. 2018 년하반기서울 A 등급오피스의순흡수면적은최근여의도시장의수요회복추세와올해신규로공급된주요권역의 A 급오피스빌딩들로인한활발한이전및업그레이드를포함한신규임차수요로인해양호한수준을보일것으로전망됨. 그러나주요권역내저번몇분기동안계속되었던공유오피스업체들의공격적인움직임은주요권역의 A 등급오피스에서는어느정도둔화될것으로전망. 임대료의경우계속해서회복세를보일것으로예상하지만, 주요권역들의신규공급및기존공실로인해회복속도는제한적일것으로판단. 권역별로임대료에가장큰변수인렌트프리추이를보면도심의경우노후된빌딩또는신규공급된빌딩을중심으로렌트프리에상승이예상되나최근임차계약이활발한빌딩들을중심으로렌트프리가축소되면서권역전체적으로는현재와비슷한수준을계속유지할것으로보임. 여의도권역의경우최근렌트프리축소 움직임이향후몇분기유지될수있으나중기적으로보면렌트프리는현재와비슷한수준을유지할듯. 이는권역내기존공실이아직상당부분남아있는가운데건물주들입장에서는 2020 년신규공급될파크원타워가완공되기전까지해당공실을우선적으로해결할필요가있고 2019 년여의도시장내주요임차인들의타권역으로의이전도예정되어있기때문. 강남권역은잠재적수요가높은만큼신규공급된건물들의임대완료가 2019 년빠르게진행될것으로보이는가운데기존빌딩들의렌트프리감소추세가일정부분 2019 년진행될것으로보여실질임대료인상이세권역중가장빠르게이루어질전망. 투자시장의경우양질의매물, 느린속도의금리인상, 풍부한유동성등의이유로올해사상최대거래규모를달성할것으로전망. 또한코어자산에중점을두는국내투자자들의투자심리는계속해서긍정적일전망. Cap rate 의경우올해말까지현재와비슷한 4.4 % 수준을유지할전망. 중기적인관점에서볼때투자시장은더많은국내투자자들이부동산시장으로자산배분을확대함에따라투자활동이계속해서강세를보일것으로전망되나전체투자규모는금리인상과경기순환변화로인해일정부문감소할것으로보임. JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 13
2018 년 3 분기주요임차사례 계약시기입주시기임차인산업군임대면적 (m 2 ) Moved From Moved To 위워크국민은행 (IT 관련조직 ) 금융업 16,608 신규 전경련타워 (Yeouido Grade A) 요기요서비스업 10,933 KG 타워 (Gangnam Grade B) 마제스타시티타워 II (Seocho Grade B) SK 이노베이션기타 10,300 SK 서린빌딩 (CBD Grade A) 그랑서울 (CBD Grade A) KG 그룹 (e-daily 포함 ) IT 8,265 남산센트럴타워 (CBD Grade B) 에이스타워 (CBD Grade B) 롯데기타 5,553 증평 롯데손해보험빌딩 (CBD Grade B) SK 해운제조업 5,376 SK 남산빌딩 (CBD Grade B) 서울스퀘어 (CBD Grade A) 롯데공유오피스 ( 브랜드이름미정 ) 공유오피스 5,337 신규 강남 N 타워 (Gangnam Grade A) 동부제철제조업 4,597 LG 서울역빌딩 (CBD Grade B) 서울스퀘어 (CBD Grade A) 메리츠화재금융업 3,597 메리츠화재봉래빌딩 (CBD Grade C) 부영태평로빌딩 (CBD Grade A) Office Rental Information 실질임대료 (Based on GFA) (KRW/pyung/month) q-o-q y-o-y Seoul 89,990 1.40% -1.10% CBD 92,481 1.59% -0.04% Yeouido 68,957 0.85% -7.17% Gangnam 98,886 0.88% 1.15% Major Investment Activity 권역 빌딩명 매도자 매수자 거래면적 (m 2 ) 금액 ( 억원 ) Gangnam 삼성물산서초타워 삼성물산 NH투자증권, 코람코자산신탁 81,115 m 2 KRW 748.4 billion Gangnam 강남 N 타워 역삼PFV KB부동산신탁 51,126 m 2 KRW 452 billion Gangnam 강남 P 타워 코람코자산신탁 한강에셋자산운용 44,073 m 2 KRW 318 billion Gangnam 강남파이낸스플라자 페블스톤자산운용 마스턴투자운용 24,179 m 2 KRW 183 billion CBD 삼일빌딩 스몰록인베스트먼트 이지스자산운용 35,203 m 2 KRW 178 billion 14 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
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Seoul Retail 16 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
Seoul Retail Rental Growth Y-O-Y -0.8% pyung per month, net on NLA KRW 1,964,800 Stage in Cycle Rents Rising Retail sales are recovering modestly while Chinese tourists volume continue to turn around Sungmin Park, Head of Research, South Korea Small increase in retail sales, Chinese tourist arrivals are recovering Retail sales showed a modest improvement, aided by an uptick in durable goods. The Consumer Sentiment Index in September remained above the 100 level, signalling positive economic activity. Recovery in Chinese tourist arrivals also continued on track, increasing 40.9% y-o-y in August. Garosu-gil dominates retail leasing activity During, Garosu-gil successfully signed new contracts with fashion and cosmetics retail brands in leading High Streets in Seoul and the retail leasing market. DISCOVERY (61 pyung), Prettica Jewelry (34 pyung) and Aritaum (15 pyung) launched new stores on the street. On the other hand, Mobslab (88 pyung) which is jewelry shop, and Vivalas (31 pyung), an international cosmetic brand, launched new shops, but Gangnamdaero and Myeong-dong were relatively quiet. For new High Street supply, in Hongdae mixed-used development AK&Hongdae (GFA 16,320 pyung) was completed during the quarter, with its first five floors devoted to retail, with office and hotel developments above. Seoul's prime shopping malls have recently completed the relocation of tenants, maintaining steady demand for entertainment and international brands, keeping vacancy rates consistently low. Shopping mall rents continue to show modest improvement Prime shopping mall rents continued to show moderate growth, up 0.5% q-o-q. It is due to attractive location, consumer preferences for shopping malls among distribution channels and prolonged demand of domestic and foreign retailers. On the other hand, High Street rents fell 0.3% from the previous quarter due, with the decrease in rent on these streets due to continuing vacancies in Cheongdam and Garosu-gil. Investment activity is rather sluggish. In particular, shopping mall transactions have virtually gone missing except for wholesale marts, and High Streets also account for most of the store transactions of private investors, with transaction volumes down from the previous quarter. 12-month Outlook Similar to 2018, 2019 is expected to show improved consumption growth with a recovery in the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the government maintaining current policies. But weak job gain numbers and uncertain consumer sentiment remain as potential headwinds for further growth in consumption for the overall retail sector. Demand for leasing in shopping malls and High Streets will be maintained mainly from lifestyle, H&B, sportswear, entertainment and new overseas brands, which should keep vacancy rates low for both channels However, shopping mall transaction volume may be limited by the tightly held nature of local stock. Index y-o-y (%) Financial Indices 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 18 15 12 9 6 3 0-3 -6 Rental Value Index Seoul Retail Sales Capital Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q13 =100 Financial Indicators are for Prime high street shop in Myeongdong -9 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Sales growth of large-scale retail stores in Seoul Source: Statistics Korea Note: Seoul Retail Market refer to Seoul major high street JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018 17
Seoul Retail 임대료변동 실질임대료 순환주기 중국인관광객회복세가이어지는가운데전분기대비소매판매회복세시현 ( 명동전년동기대비 ) -0.8% ( 명동원 /3.3 m²/ 월 ) 1,964,800 원 임대료상승 리서치박성민부장 소매매출소폭상승, 중국인관광객수는회복세 내구재매출의상승및 9 월달소비자물가지수가 100 을상회하는수준을보임에따라소매매출은소폭의상승을보임. 중국관광객수의회복도지속되어, 8 월기준전년대비 40.9% 의증가율을보였음. 가로수길이리테일임대활동주도 동분기동안가로수길은패션및화장품소매브랜드중심으로신규계약을성공적으로체결하며서울 High Street 의리테일임대시장을주도하는모습. 디스커버리 (61 평 ), 프리티카쥬얼리 (34 평 ), 아리따움 (15 평 ) 이가로수길에신규스토어를오픈. 반면, 강남대로와명동은쥬얼리샵무브스랩 (88 평 ), 인터내셔널코스메틱샵인비발라스 (31 평 ) 등이신규샵을론칭했으나비교적조용한편이었음. 홍대및청담의경우주요신규계약사례는없는것으로조사됨. High Street 신규공급으로는홍대권역에복합용도로개발된 AK & 홍대 ( 연면적 16,320 평 ) 로해당건물의 5 층까지는소매점이며, 그위층에는오피스와호텔이위치. 서울프라임쇼핑몰은대부분이최근테넌트개편이이미완료되었고, 엔터테인먼트, 인터내셔널브랜드등의꾸준한수요가유지되며계속적으로낮은공실률유지. 매출개선에따른지속적인쇼핑몰임대료상승추세 서울프라임쇼핑몰의임대료는전분기대비 0.5% 상승하여저번분기에상승추세이어짐. 이는서울의주요쇼핑몰들의매력적인위치조건, 유통채널중소비자들의쇼핑몰선호현상, 주요국내외리테일러들의지속적인임차수요에기인한것으로판단. 반면, High Street 의경우청담과가로수길의지속적인공실로인한이들스트리트의임대료하락으로서울중심가 (High street) 의임대료는전분기대비 0.3% 하락. 투자시장의경우다소부진한모습. 특히쇼핑몰거래사례가대형마트을제외하고는사실상실종되었고 High Street 역시개인투자자들상가중심의거래가대부분을차지하며전분기대비거래량은감소. 12-month Outlook 외국인관광객수의회복및정부의소비진작정책이유지되어 19 년역시 18 년과비슷한소비성장세를보일것으로예상. 다만일자리감소와소비심리세의하락추세는리테일매출성장세에향후걸림돌로남아있음. 임대수요는쇼핑몰과중심가 (High Street) 모두라이프스타일, H&B, 스포츠웨어, 엔터테인먼트, 국내로진출하는신규해외브랜드등을중심으로수요세가유지되며두채널모두공실률은모두낮게유지될것임. Index 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Rental Value Index Retail Seoul Sales Retail Sales y-o-y (%) Financial Indices 18 15 12 9 6 3 0-3 -6 Capital Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q13 =100 Financial Indicators are for Prime high street shop in Myeongdong -9 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Source: Statistics Korea Source: Statistics Korea Sales growth of large-scale retail stores in Seoul 18 JLL Korea Property Digest Q3 2018
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