2010 년도예비타당성조사보고서 광주도시철도 2 호선건설사업 공공투자관리센터 한국개발연구원
요 약
요약 Ⅰ. 예비타당성조사의개요 1. 사업의배경및목적,,. 2 2002 2005, 2010. 2015 2. 1 1
2015 2 2. 사업추진경위 2002, 2005 (B/C=1.42, AHP=0.606), ( )., 5, 2 ( () ). - (2010.2). < 표 1> 사업의추진경위 - 2 () 02. 10. 25 L=27.4km, 1 3,375, 08~ 19(3) - (KDI) 05. 05. 02 L=22km, 9,444, 08~ 17(2) B/C=1.42 06. 08~ 07. 08. - (KDI PIMAC) 07. 08. - 2 () 07. 10. 24~ 09. 02. 25-2 09. 04 ~ 09. 12 -, 09. 06 ~ 09. 07-09. 10 ~ - 10 2 09. 10 ~ - 10. 02-2 () 10. 04 -
3. 사업의개요 1) < 표 2> 사업의개요 2 ~~(~)~~~~ ~~~~() - (2 1) - L=41.7, 44( 1) 1: L=15.7km, 20( 1) 2: L=21.1km, 18 3: L=4.8km, 6( 1) 1 9,062( 60%, 40%) - 2011 ~ 2022(3, 12) 1: 2011~2014(2015 ) 2: 2015~2019(2020 ) 3: 2018~2022(2023 ) / 14() 1) 2 (2010.2) (, ) ( -2337, 2010.06.22.).
[ 그림 1] 예비타당성조사 ( 기본계획변경 ( 안 )) 의노선 1 L=15km770 20, ~~ 1 ~~~ 2 L=21km090 18 ~~ ~~~ 3 L= 4km840 6, 1 ~
Ⅱ. 기초자료분석및조사의쟁점 1. 기초자료분석 09 1,433,640, 05~ 09 0.56%, -1.8% 2.83%,. 04~ 08 0.12%, 1.97%. 2009 49 05~ 09 3.19%, 88, ~ 1, 13, 22, 29 0809 1819, 7.68%, 7.59%, 5.83%, 7.05%. (5) 2),. 2) 8.78%, 3.84%, 7%, 2.5%
1 1 20.1km, 19, 2004 1 (~), 2008 2 (~) 1 2008 2.1%, 2009 47/, 17,203/. 1 2005 8,021/, 2009 17,203/ 21.5%. < 표 3> 광주도시철도 1호선운행현황 19 20.1km : 5~7, : 810 5:3024:00 246/ 2(, ) 3839 [ 그림 2] 광주도시철도 1 호선노선도
2. 상위및관련계획의검토 4 (2006~2020)/ (2000~2019)/ 5 5(2001~2006)/ 3 / 2020 / / 3. 예비타당성조사의주요쟁점 () 2 ( 2, () ),. 2005,, 2. - 2005 1, 2. - 3 (1 2015, 2 2020, 3 2023 ) -
,,,. - 1 2015. -,. - () 4. -,. - (5), 2 1. -. -, 2 1, 2, 2.
Ⅲ. 비용추정 1. 노선대안및기술적검토 - ~~(~ )~~~ 41.7. -, -,,,. - 3, 2015 1 < 표 4> 선행연구와노선대안비교 2002 2005 () 2010 (()) 27.40km(, ), 22.10km() ( ) 41.70km(, ), 13,375 9,444 19,062 20082019(12) 3 20082015(8) 2 20112022(12) 3
- (),. -,,. -,. -,. [ 그림 3] 노선검토구간
() -,,,,. -,,. () -, 13m 5 4m. - 2 (7m),,. - 800m,. () ~ ( ) - (2.15km). -,. () ~IC~IC - IC IC 3.4 50m, 20m, -,.
- 44,,,, 4, 940m, 2,850m, 480m. - 2 () 4,,,. - (50m). [ 그림 4] 정거장배치계획도
- AGT(, ). - 2023 31 62. -. - -, 3 8. - 2. 차량시스템선정 () (K-AGT)., AGT.
3. 총사업비추정 - (5) GDP deflator,. -,,. - AGT,, 5% - 70% - () 35m, 50.0m 30%. - 1 (203) BOX. - (5). -, 80%. - (5) - (5)
- (5) - (5) - 39.20 /h, 31.2/h~46.8/h. 3) - 2 1, 41.7, 20, 38.8/h -, 1 18 3 62. 2 1 7,394 3) 1 36.2~45.8/h, 2 32.7~33.3/h, 3 36.3/h, 4 37.8/h, 5 32.8/h, 6 30.1 /h, 7 32.4/h, 8 34.2/h, 9 31.2/h(), 46.8/h() 39.2/h
< 표 5> 광주도시철도 2 호선건설사업총사업비추정결과 ( 전구간 ) 1) : 41.7 2) : 44 3) : (:39.528, :0.510) 4) : 1, 1 () () A. 1,294,924 A-1. 726,959 A-1-1. 39.528 14,384.90 568,606 0.510 10,069.43 5,135 4 935.02 3,740 A-1-2. 44 2,705.22 119,030 A-1-3. 1 6,448.00 6,448 A-1-4.BOX 2 12,000.00 24,000 A-2. 79,163 A-2-1. 41.7 1,898.40 79,163 A-3. 41,268 A-3-1. 44 937.90 41,268 A-4. 382,622 A-4-1. 41.7 4,486.10 187,070 A-4-2. 41.7 3,107.50 129,583 A-4-3. 41.7 1,582.00 65,969 A-5. 58,764 A-5-1. 0.0524 14,384.90 754 A-5-2. 62 935.64 58,010 A-6. 8 768.40 6,147 B. 169,331 B-1. (A1~A6) (%) 1 17,361 B-2. (A1~A6) (%) 1 34,945 B-3. () (A1~A6) (%) 1 38,589 B-4. (A1~A6) 1% 1 14,474 B-5. SE A4 5% 1 24,535 B-6. 50% 1 24,033 B-7. (B1~B6) 10% 1 15,394 C. 1 21,455 D. (A+B+C) 10% 1 148,571 E. 62 1,696 105,152 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 1,739,432
4. 운영비추정 -,,, - 10 1 5. - 3, 1, 3 3. - 3, 1, 1, 3 3, 4, 15%. - -, 6.3% < 표 6> 운영인원산정결과 (: ) 2015 28 12 20 68 6 9 143 2020 28 24 30 101 17 13 213 28 24 30 101 17 13 213 2023 0 6 20 34 3 4 67
- (5) 2007 57,715 - (5), (car-) - (5) (4) 2 (, 2001). -,, 7% < 표 7> 운영비산정결과 (: ) 2015 88.80 14.84 79.93 12.85 196.42 2020 132.28 32.99 191.42 24.97 381.66 132.28 32.99 191.42 24.97 381.66 2023 41.60 4.47 26.18 5.06 77.31 5. 잔존가치산정 25,,, 20., 10%,.
6. 연차별투자계획,. < 표 8> 연차별투입비율 / /SE 2011 1 100% 1 100% 2012 1 30% 1 30% 1 30% 2013 1 40% 1 70% 1 40% 2014 1 30% 1 30% 2015 2 5% 2 100% 2 100% 2016 2 15% 2 30% 2 20% 2017 2 25% 2 70% 2 25% 2018 2 35% 3 100% 3 100% 2 35% 2019 2 20% 3 20% 3 30% 2 20% 3 20% 2020 3 30% 3 70% 3 30% 2021 3 40% 3 30% 2022 3 10% 3 20% : 1) 1. 2) 2. 3) 3.
Ⅳ. 교통수요추정 1. 기초자료및분석범위설정 : 2009 2006 KTDB - 166, 238 404-5 30 KTDB O/D Network 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031, 2036, KTDB - 1 30, 30,,. 30, 30,.
< 표 9> 광주도시철도 2 호선사업단계별시간적분석범위 1 2 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 1 1,2 1 1,2 1,2,3 1,2,3 1,2,3
- PV RV,,,,,,. < 표 10> 예비타당성조사의영향권,,,,, 2. 기본자료의수정 6, 14, 11, 7, 2, 24 428-2 O/D Network O/D - O/D, 2008 O/D 2006 2011 O/D Network - 2008 vdf Network. O/D Network O/D
< 표 11> 추가반영한개발계획의발생 도착교통량 (: /) 2016 2021 3 2,733 2,745 2,733 2,745 35,318 35,374 35,318 35,374 2 3,900 2,672 3,900 2,672 2 3,794 2,599 3,794 2,599 8,646 5,648 8,646 5,648 11,158 8,917 11,158 8,917 65,549 57,955 65,549 57,955 Network - DB (~), ~ 8 2015 - ( 25,000, 13). -. 3. 수단선택 KTDB., zero-cell KTDB 2006 1.
2015 6.56% 2020 2 13.32%, 2036 14.17%. 2 2020 11%. < 표 12> 광주광역시의여객통행량의수단선택결과 (a) (b) (b-a) () () () 1,099,146 55.16% 1,063,970 53.39% -35,176-1.77% 567,718 28.49% 519,743 26.08% -47,975-2.41% 2015 286,047 14.35% 278,220 13.96% -7,827-0.39% 39,824 2.00% 130,802 6.56% 90,978 4.56% 1,992,735 100.00% 1,992,735 100% 0 0% 1,100,389 55.33% 993,670 49.96% -106,719-5.37% 565,479 28.43% 464,074 23.33% -101,405-5.10% 2020 283,725 14.27% 266,237 13.39% -17,488-0.88% 39,320 1.98% 264,932 13.32% 225,612 11.34% 1,988,913 100% 1,988,913 100% 0 0% 1,094,363 55.39% 983,703 49.79% -110,660-5.60% 561,264 28.41% 453,913 22.98% -107,351-5.43% 2023 281,216 14.23% 263,116 13.32% -18,100-0.91% 38,760 1.96% 274,871 13.91% 236,111 11.95% 1,975,603 100% 1,975,603 100% 0 0% 2036 1,020,332 55.51% 914,092 49.73% -106,240-5.78% 522,426 28.42% 420,722 22.89% -101,704-5.53% 259,971 14.14% 242,671 13.20% -17,300-0.94% 35,286 1.92% 260,531 14.17% 225,245 12.25% 1,838,016 100% 1,838,016 100% 0 0%
4. 통행배정모형의정산 1. < 표 13> 철도통행배정모형정산결과 (A) (B) % (A) (B) (: /) % 1,051 793-25% 1,074 943-12% 1,403 1,148-18% 1,199 949-21% 2,244 2,776 24% 2,223 2,839 28% 3,218 3,242 1% 3,161 3,310 5% 1,238 1,023-17% 948 920-3% 767 710-7% 729 742 2% 4,045 3,234-20% 4,219 3,378-20% 3,023 3,912 29% 3,132 3,439 10% 2,981 2,970 0% 2,668 3,148 18% 2,245 2,087-7% 2,100 2,222 6% 2,551 3,041 19% 2,416 2,628 9% 1,692 1,474-13% 1,684 1,234-27% 2,376 2,429 2% 2,518 2,571 2% 5 2,212 1,662-25% 2,392 1,885-21% 4 5,434 4,884-10% 5,685 5,143-10% 3,674 3,475-5% 3,849 3,347-13% 4,210 2,593-38% 4,590 2,905-37% 1,989 1,684-15% 2,029 1,513-25% 1,914 1,740-9% 1,676 1,757 5% 57 52-9% 54 55 1%
17, 21, 11 49. (5). [ 그림 5] 도로네트워크정산관측지점
< 표 14> 기준년도네트워크정산결과 ( 고속도로및국도 ) (%) (-) () 1 IC_JCT 38,380 49,540 11,160 29% 30% 2 IC_IC 87,386 101,979 14,593 17% 20% 3 IC_IC 114,926 91,524-23,402 20% 20% 4 IC_IC 63,297 63,781 484 1% 20% 5 IC_IC 49,453 40,494-8,960 18% 20% 6 IC_JCT 48,585 50,741 2,156 4% 20% 7 JCT_IC 44,081 36,527-7,554 17% 30% 8 IC_IC 44,732 37,067-7,664 17% 30% 9 IC_IC 12,496 11,397-1,099 9% 30% 88 10 JCT_JCT 15,235 16,529 1,294 8% 30% 11 JCT_IC 14,136 15,517 1,382 10% 30% 12 JCT_IC 14,212 17,884 3,673 26% 30% 13 JCT_IC 17,065 18,659 1,594 9% 30% 14 IC_JCT 18,083 18,779 696 4% 30% 15 JCT_IC 14,905 11,984-2,922 20% 30% 16 IC_JCT 15,586 15,805 219 1% 30% 17 JCT_JCT 12,625 11,845-780 6% 30% 1-36,017 38,341 2,324 6% 30% 1 2-32,888 36,512 3,624 11% 30% 3-6,977 7,028 50 1% 30% 4-2,615 2,793 178 7% 30% 5-25,632 18,788-6,843 27% 30% 6-35,764 31,177-4,587 13% 30% 13 7-23,066 27,482 4,416 19% 30% 8-6,323 6,694 372 6% 30% 9-13,691 11,428-2,263 17% 30% 22 10-17,903 14,527-3,376 19% 30% 11-54,064 52,472-1,592 3% 30% 23 12-5,850 4,964-886 15% 30% 24 13-5,511 4,009-1,501 27% 30% 14-12,053 11,180-873 7% 30% 15-19,956 18,859-1,097 5% 30% 29 16-17,800 14,630-3,170 18% 30% 17-1,619 1,168-452 28% 30% 1 18 1,109 827-282 25% 30% 23 19 1,992 2,064 72 4% 30% 20 2,635 2,659 25 1% 30% 29 21 1,149 1,481 332 29% 30%
< 표 15> 기준년도도로네트워크정산결과 ( 광주광역시내부 ) (%) (-) () 1 30,522 28,562-1,960 6% 15% 2 3 13,520 13,713 193 1% 15% 3 I.C 56,510 52,472-4,038 7% 15% 4 4_ 32,207 26,047-6,160 19% 20% 5 _ 64,246 51,467-12,779 20% 20% 6 _ 20,345 20,755 410 2% 15% 7 4_ 54,622 49,756-4,866 9% 15% 8 _ 62,722 52,741-9,981 16% 20% 9 _ 55,281 54,756-525 1% 15% 10 4_ 41,038 46,859 5,821 14% 15% 11 4_ 40,089 45,423 5,334 13% 15% 5. 장래교통수요추정 2015 1 89,694 2020 2 234,742, 2023 267,955( 246,893 ) 2026. km 2015 1 5,713/km 2020 2 6,379/km. < 표 16> 광주도시철도 2 호선의승차인원추정결과 (km) () km (/km) 2015 15.7 89,694 5,713 2019 15.7 89,933 5,728 2020 36.8 234,742 6,379 2022 36.8 236,078 6,415 2023 41.7 267,955 (246,893) 6,426 (5,921) 2026 41.7 268,176 (247,259) 6,431 (5,929) 2031 41.7 264,571 (244,141) 6,345 (5,855) 2036 41.7 256,589 (236,916) 6,153 (5,681)
[ 그림 6] 광주도시철도 2 호선정거장위치도 < 표 17> 사업노선의교통수요추정결과 (2015 년 ) (: /) 238 6,501-6,501 6,198-6,198 201 4,033-4,033 3,903-3,903 202 2,838-2,838 2,722-2,722 203 2,496 6,807 9,303 2,455 7,757 10,212 204 649-649 658-658 205 1,822-1,822 1,479-1,479 2 206 4,100-4,100 3,339-3,339 207 2,462-2,462 2,092-2,092 208 2,066-2,066 1,582-1,582 209 1,279-1,279 1,022-1,022 1 210 452-452 657-657 211 6,275-6,275 6,750-6,750 212 1,676-1,676 2,622-2,622 213 448-448 562-562 214 2,180 21,998 24,178 2,524 20,379 22,903 215 2,828-2,828 3,229-3,229 216 3,863-3,863 3,889-3,889 217 1,799-1,799 1,976-1,976 218 3,558-3,558 4,307-4,307 219 9,563-9,563 9,590-9,590 60,889 28,805 89,694 61,558 28,136 89,694
< 표 18> 사업노선의교통수요추정결과 (2020 년 ) (: /) 2 1 2 2 238 8,694-8,694 8,215-8,215 201 4,872-4,872 4,674-4,674 202 3,560-3,560 3,421-3,421 203 4,186 20,030 24,216 4,015 16,945 20,960 204 804-804 853-853 205 2,528-2,528 2,124-2,124 206 6,007-6,007 4,934-4,934 207 4,282-4,282 3,401-3,401 208 3,037-3,037 2,222-2,222 209 1,991-1,991 1,492-1,492 210 571-571 879-879 211 8,138-8,138 10,260-10,260 212 2,437-2,437 3,788-3,788 213 591-591 735-735 214 4,240 35,201 39,441 5,060 33,575 38,635 215 3,951-3,951 4,642-4,642 216 4,444-4,444 4,514-4,514 217 2,305-2,305 2,821-2,821 218 5,706-5,706 6,772-6,772 219 3,049-3,049 2,832-2,832 220 14,186-14,186 16,036-16,036 221 6,867-6,867 7,549-7,549 222 3,042-3,042 3,212-3,212 223 913-913 994-994 224 2,057-2,057 2,250-2,250 225 6,043-6,043 6,453-6,453 226 3,096-3,096 2,713-2,713 227 6,343-6,343 5,308-5,308 228 3,196-3,196 2,788-2,788 229 3,481-3,481 2,979-2,979 230 3,505-3,505 3,018-3,018 231 2,319-2,319 2,235-2,235 232 5,730-5,730 7,079-7,079 233 4,156-4,156 4,041-4,041 234 6,844-6,844 5,284-5,284 235 8,746-8,746 15,919-15,919 236 5,143-5,143 4,379-4,379 237 18,451-18,451 14,332-14,332 179,511 55,231 234,742 184,222 50,520 234,742
< 표 19> 사업노선의교통수요추정결과 (2023 년 ) (: /) 238 8,819-8,819 8,318-8,318 201 4,877-4,877 4,704-4,704 202 3,568-3,568 3,450-3,450 203 4,213 19,922 24,135 4,112 16,847 20,959 204 779-779 841-841 205 2,580-2,580 2,226-2,226 2 206 6,320-6,320 5,302-5,302 207 4,426-4,426 3,505-3,505 208 3,168-3,168 2,337-2,337 209 2,103-2,103 1,582-1,582 210 576-576 895-895 1 211 3,155 9,984 13,139 4,000 11,082 15,082 212 2,596-2,596 4,124-4,124 213 600-600 749-749 214 4,458 37,199 41,657 5,414 35,332 40,746 215 4,055-4,055 4,816-4,816 216 4,412-4,412 4,487-4,487 217 2,266-2,266 2,866-2,866 218 5,689-5,689 6,786-6,786 219 3,135-3,135 2,948-2,948 220 14,359-14,359 16,277-16,277 221 6,797-6,797 7,572-7,572 222 3,053-3,053 3,241-3,241 223 884-884 979-979 224 2,082-2,082 2,330-2,330 2 225 6,222-6,222 6,783-6,783 226 3,180-3,180 2,746-2,746 227 6,574-6,574 5,404-5,404 228 3,284-3,284 2,820-2,820 229 3,572-3,572 3,013-3,013 2 230 3,591-3,591 3,054-3,054 231 2,390-2,390 2,300-2,300 232 5,519-5,519 7,060-7,060 233 4,291-4,291 4,166-4,166 234 7,158-7,158 5,301-5,301 235 8,917-8,917 15,878-15,878 236 5,291-5,291 4,545-4,545 237 18,824-18,824 14,691-14,691 211 312 11,082 11,394 319 9,984 10,303 239 1,000-1,000 1,240-1,240 240 3,098-3,098 3,538-3,538 241 2,022-2,022 2,261-2,261 242 1,349-1,349 1,503-1,503 243 1,742-1,742 1,777-1,777 244 2,466-2,466 2,449-2,449 189,768 78,187 267,955 194,710 73,245 267,955
< 표 20> 사업노선의교통수요추정결과 (2036 년 ) (: /) 238 8,419-8,419 7,852-7,852 201 4,445-4,445 4,353-4,353 202 3,282-3,282 3,223-3,223 203 3,916 20,424 24,340 3,809 15,862 19,671 204 653-653 717-717 205 2,221-2,221 2,179-2,179 2 206 5,938-5,938 5,543-5,543 207 4,319-4,319 3,353-3,353 208 3,077-3,077 2,396-2,396 209 2,035-2,035 1,610-1,610 210 471-471 785-785 1 211 2,877 8,942 11,819 3,598 10,731 14,329 212 2,356-2,356 3,986-3,986 213 548-548 654-654 214 4,615 35,865 40,480 5,251 32,461 37,712 215 4,179-4,179 4,723-4,723 216 4,136-4,136 4,023-4,023 217 2,046-2,046 2,503-2,503 218 5,294-5,294 6,078-6,078 219 3,151-3,151 2,742-2,742 220 13,774-13,774 15,368-15,368 221 6,053-6,053 7,031-7,031 222 2,767-2,767 3,014-3,014 223 737-737 868-868 224 1,908-1,908 2,416-2,416 2 225 6,010-6,010 7,442-7,442 226 3,233-3,233 2,723-2,723 227 6,704-6,704 5,397-5,397 228 3,358-3,358 2,797-2,797 229 3,664-3,664 2,993-2,993 2 230 3,692-3,692 3,044-3,044 231 2,340-2,340 2,401-2,401 232 4,635-4,635 6,576-6,576 233 4,210-4,210 4,390-4,390 234 7,383-7,383 5,286-5,286 235 7,962-7,962 14,961-14,961 236 5,149-5,149 4,882-4,882 237 18,309-18,309 15,072-15,072 211 287 10,731 11,018 269 8,942 9,211 239 839-839 1,038-1,038 240 2,764-2,764 3,498-3,498 241 1,809-1,809 2,230-2,230 242 1,207-1,207 1,480-1,480 243 1,596-1,596 1,742-1,742 244 2,259-2,259 2,294-2,294 180,625 75,962 256,587 188,591 67,996 256,587
1 2 2015 32,754 /, 2020 53,786/. < 표 21> 사업시행에따른 1호선순승차인원비교 (2015 년, 2020 년, 2023, 2036 년 ) (: /) 2009 2015 2020 2023 2036 793 724 3,357 733 5,156 730 5,252 718 5,464 1,148 1,197 4,116 1,190 5,313 1,181 5,304 1,147 5,051 2,776 3,187 7,677 3,326 9,485 3,347 9,165 3,140 8,692 3,242 3,723 8,965 3,884 11,077 3,909 10,703 3,668 10,151 1,023 1,079 1,980 1,095 1,929 1,095 1,958 1,088 1,933 710 934 1,001 939 1,231 930 1,232 828 1,134 3,234 3,202 1,887 3,216 2,313 3,181 2,317 2,835 2,127 3,912 4,461 3,336 4,294 3,256 4,160 3,157 3,568 2,723 2,970 1,824 4,099 1,742 5,010 1,680 4,994 1,425 4,230 2,087 1,856 4,225 1,766 5,793 1,711 5,675 1,494 5,223 3,041 3,252 5,505 3,154 7,715 3,090 7,798 2,813 7,306 1,474 1,537 2,961 1,532 3,472 1,521 3,521 1,408 3,297 2,429 2,376 3,798 2,306 4,651 2,247 4,813 1,983 4,460 5 1,662 2,043 3,163 2,056 4,019 2,038 4,101 1,852 3,875 4 4,884 4,826 10,077 4,856 15,114 4,829 15,733 4,525 15,825 3,475 3,229 1,244 3,143 1,609 3,085 1,643 2,852 1,675 2,593 2,530 2,604 2,499 2,366 2,477 2,295 2,375 2,139 1,684 1,533 3,455 1,459 4,099 1,414 4,182 1,250 3,569 1,740 1,728 4,459 1,679 4,948 1,647 4,945 1,466 4,462 52 48 134 45 148 43 145 34 122 44,929 45,289 78,043 44,916 98,702 44,315 98,934 40,469 93,455
Ⅴ. 편익산정. < 표 22> 도로 철도부문사업시행에따른편익항목 - - - - ( ) - (-) -,. < 표 23> 편익산정결과 (: /) 2012-0.5-0.4-0.05-0.03 0.0-1 2014-0.4-0.3-0.04-0.02 0.0-1 2015 311 205 27 57 37 636 2019 319 227 35 67 38 685 2020 887 488 91 179 100 1,746 2022 891 479 90 170 100 1,729 2023 929 500 92 177 103 1,801 2026 927 487 91 172 103 1,780 2031 932 507 91 176 99 1,805 2036 906 492 87 173 95 1,754 2045 608 294 58 117 63 1,141 2050 30 17 3 5 3 57
Ⅵ. 경제성분석 1. 경제성분석 B/C=0.997, NPV=-43. < 표 24> 경제성분석결과요약 () 16,828 () 16,871 B/C 0.997 NPV() -43 IRR(%) 5.47-5.5% 5.5%. - 10% B/C=0.907, 10% B/C=1.108. - 10% B/C=0.973, 10% B/C=1.024.
- 10% B/C=1.097, 10% B/C=0.898. 2. 재무성분석및민자연계방안 1 Check List 2,. 1,, (BTO). < 표 25> 재무성분석을위한지표및주요가정 ( 민간사업자수행 ) / 2009/3 30 5.5% 50%, 100% 29.3% 15.7% ( 13.65%, 2.04%) :1,000, :500 :800, :400 5%
- 50% ( 1). - IRR=5.5% 89% ( 2). < 표 26> 시나리오별재무성분석결과 ( 민간사업자수행 ) 1 50% FNPV : -4,600 PI : 0.74 2 IRR=5.5% : 89% ( 60%) - (FNPV) -5,701 (PI) 0.68. - 1~3 2011~2022, -. -,,,,. 2,,,, 2015 1.
Ⅶ. 정책적분석 - 7 16. -. -. - 3.4174% 2008 42 0.1789%. - 4 (2006~2020) (2000~2019), 5 2020,, 2010 (2009~2013). - 2002 2005. - (),.
-,. - 2 (),. -, 2 1. - 2015 2 1. - 2005, 1, 2. - ( ) 60%, 30%, 10%. - (2009~2013) 2013 1,659, 11.38%, 3 2018 15.87%. 4) 4) 2009~2013-2.1% 2010~2013 8.6%,
- (2009~2013) () 3 3,649, 2 6,579, ( +) 5) 2.2%, 1.4%, + 6) 3.5%, 2.3%. - 2009, 1,290, 16%, 5. - 1, 8,321 6,406 2010 5,554 852, 74%. -, 7) (2 +12 8) ) 3.9%, 7.9%, 2.3%, 4.7%. -, 2009 340, 1, 1( 1 ) 5.1%, 3.1%, 2(() ) 6.2%, 3.7%, (2009~2013). 9) 2013 2013 5) 1, 2 6) 1,, 7) 2014 2009~2013 0.7% 8) 2 5, 4.2% 9) 2,, 2.
< 표 27> 광주도시철도관련중장기재정부담전망 (2호선건설비 +1 2호선채무상환액 ) (: ) 2 1 2 (A) (B) (C=A+B) (D) (E) C/D C/E 2011 95 313 408 17,228 27,582 2.4% 1.5% 2012 602 192 794 17,526 27,951 4.5% 2.8% 2013 830 114 944 17,769 30,087 5.3% 3.1% 2014 666 90 756 17,892 30,295 4.2% 2.5% 2015 270 57 327 18,016 30,504 1.8% 1.1% 2016 433 54 487 18,140 30,715 2.7% 1.6% 2017 817 223 1,040 18,265 30,928 5.7% 3.4% 2018 1,157 298 1,454 18,392 31,141 7.9% 4.7% 2019 891 243 1,134 18,519 31,357 6.1% 3.6% 2020 249 90 339 18,647 31,574 1.8% 1.1% 2021 325 144 470 18,776 31,792 2.5% 1.5% 2022 124 272 396 18,906 32,012 2.1% 1.2% 6,460 2,090 8,550 218,075 365,938 3.9% 2.3% - 11~16%, 1, 2 12,. -,,. - 2.
Ⅷ. 종합평가및정책제언 1. AHP 분석을통한사업의종합판단 AHP < 표 28> 광주도시철도 2 호선건설사업예비타당성조사의조사결과요약 () - 2 (2010.2), 41.7km, 44. - L=41.7, 44( 1) 1: L=15.7km, 20( 1) 2: L=21.1km, 18 3: L=4.8km, 6( 1) 1 7,394 B/C 0.997 NPV() -43 IRR(%) 5.47 (7/16, 21/168) (%) 3.4174% AHP 0.502. AHP (robustness),.
< 표 29> AHP 평가결과 0.502 0.498 1 0.482 0.518 2 0.500 0.500 3 0.539 0.461 4 0.530 0.470 5 0.461 0.539 6 0.453 0.547 2. 종합평가및정책제언,,. 2 2002 2005, 2010. 2015 2. 1 1 2015 2
: 1 7,394 : 180,625/(2036 ) B/C: 0.997, NPV=-43 50%.,,,, 2015 1.. 5,, (2009~2013), 2002, 2005. 11~16%, 1, 2 12,. 0.502. AHP (robustness)
,. 3 2005,,, () 2018,,, 10),. 10) 3 <>
3) < 표 30> 광주도시철도 2 호선건설사업예비타당성조사수행결과요약 (: ) ~~(~)~~~~ ~~~~() - (2 1) - L=41.7, 44( 1) 1: L=15.7, 20( 1) 2: L=21.1, 18 3: L=4.8, 6( 1) - 2011 ~ 2022(3, 12) 1: 2011~2014 2: 2015~2019 3: 2018~2022 /, / 60%, 40% 1,531,263 1,294,924 17,361 86,670 34,945 25,238 38,589 15,312 14,474 S E 21,780 24,535 22,964 24,033 17,197 15,394 189,161 169,331 20,500 21,455-148,571 165,300 105,152 1,906,224 1,739,432 B/C 1.07 * 0.997 AHP 0.502