기술변동과 알고리즘사회 1
01. ( 미디어 ) 기술과사회 02. 알고리즘사회 03. 네트워크경제이론 2
! 미디어기술과사회 3
인터넷효과를바라보는 5 가지입장 4
! 인터넷효과를바라보는 5 가지입장 (We-Think) Charles Leadbeater(2008), We-Think: Mass Innovation, not Mass Production: The Power of Mass Creativity 5
01! No Big Deal ebay=, Amazon= Microsoft:,! 6
02! David Egerton, The Shock of the Old disruptive technologies 7
03! Andrew Keen, The Cult of the Amateur Jaron Lanier: Digital Maoism 8
! J. Lanier 9
! 10
! Evgeny Morozov 11
! : 68,.... 12
04! Clay Shirky, Yochai Benkler, Jeff Jarvis New Communication Structure = SNS Open Innovation, Open Data, Open Government 13
05! ʻ ʼ,,,,,,, MS: Walled Garden Jonathan Zittrain, The Future of the Internet, How to Stop it 14
! 5 15
! 기차 / 철도와경제및문화변동 16
! Clay Shirky Revolution doesnʼt happen when society adopts new technologies - it happens when society adopts new behaviors 17
! :, 18
! / 19
! Wolfgang Schivelbusch : 19 (1977) (The Railway Journey: The Industrialization and Perception of Time and Space) 20
! : : :,, 21
01! / / 1. : /, 100% 22
!? ʻ ʼ : 23
! A 100 7 B 50 3 24
! : 100% : 100% mass communication, push communication 25
02! 2. 1860 ʻ ʼ 26
! / 27
03! 3. :, :, : Panorama View 28
04! 4. / : Privacy : : 29
! Privacy 30
! 31
! Herd, Harold The March of Journalism: the story of the British Press from 1962 to the Present Day, 1952 32
( ) 1896 Daily Mail 1896 10, 40 33
( ) Daily Mail: ʻ ʼ Boer War: 1 1880-1881 2 1899-1902 34
( ) Daily Mail :, :? 35
( ) : : 36
! Clay Shirky Institutions will try preserve the problem to which they are the solution. / / ( ). 37
! Socrates/Platon, Phaidros. ʻ / ʼ ʻ / ʼ. 38
! Johannes Gutenberg (1450, / ) Martin Luther (1521-25), (1789) Newspaper, 39
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copyist; calligraphus (calligraphi) ;, 41
1 : : ʻ ʼ 42
2 Johannes Trithemius De Laude Scriptorum (1492 ).,,,. 43
! (phonograph) Edison (1899) : 1910, TV: LP, CD, Download, Streaming 44
John Philip Sousa (1854-1932) ( ) 1906 45
These talking machines are going to ruin the artistic development of music in this country. When I was a boy, in front of every house in the summer evenings, you would find young people together sining the songs of the day, or the old songs. 46
Today, you hear these infernal machines going night and day. We will not have a vocal chord left. The vocal chords will be eliminated by a process of evolution as was the tail of man when he came form the ape. 47
! ʻ ʼ 48
On the eve of the greates industrial revolu3on in history, no sign and portents were forthcoming. Capitalism arrived unannounced. No one had forecast the development of a machine industry; it came as a complete surprise. - Karl Polany, The Great Transforma3on: The Poli3cal and Economic Origins of Our Time, 1944, p. 89) 49
: ʻ (Sorge)ʼ, 50
! 알고리즘사회 51
70% 52
Jeremy Ri3in, The End of Work technological determinism 53
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Technology is no longer crea3ng new jobs at a rate that replaces old ones made obsolete elsewhere in the economy. - The Economist hpp://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/11/ar3ficial- intelligence 59
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In the years ahead, more sophis3cated souware technologies are going to bring civilisa3on ever closer to a near- workerless world. - Jeremy RiYin, The End of Work, 1995 61
It may be hard to believe, but before the end of this century, 70 percent of today s occupadons will likewise be replaced by automadon. Yes, dear reader, even you will have your job taken away by machines. In other words, robot replacement is just a maier of Dme. this upheaval is being led by a second wave of automa/on, one that is centered on ardficial cognidon, cheap sensors, machine learning, and distributed smarts. This deep automadon will touch all jobs, from manual labor to knowledge work. - Kevin Kelly, Wired, BeIer than Human 2012 hpp://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/12/ff- robots- will- take- our- jobs/all/ 62
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! OODA-Loop Framework 64
Observe Orient Deside Act 65
John Boyd 2 1950 66
automation 67
ʻ ʼ? 68
Babysitter 69
Cleaning 70
drones 71
drones 72
Self-Driving Car: 1 GB pro Second!!! 73
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/ Self-Driving Cars, 350 (, ) 75
: / High Frequency Algorithm 76
High Frequency Trading (HFT) 2009 50% 80% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/highfrequency_trading 77
/ Stats Monkey 4, Northwestern University 78
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80 StatSheet
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NarrativeScience 2012 Kristian Hammond 5 Pulitzer 82
Computational Legal Studies, Michigan State University ReInvent Law London 2013 ReInvent Law New York 2013 83
Pattern Detection: (Big) Data Mining, Data Analytics,, 84
Outsourcing 85
3 D Printer 86
! 90%, 2% 87
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10 대업종에속한기업들은... 매출이 100 억원늘어날때마다 6.2 명의일자리생겨 89
Mooreʼs Law 18 2 IT 90
: 91
: 92
: (,, )? 93
Orient? Marshall McLuhan There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening. To Contemplate! 94
Orient 두개의극단적반응? 95
Luddite(1811-1812), Swing Riots(1830) Sabotage 96
Steven E. Jones, 2006 97
Dystopia 98
! Borg Complex A Borg Complex is exhibited by writers and pundits who explicitly assert or implicitly assume that resistance to technology is futile. - Michael Sacasa 99
/VC. 100
The goal of the future is full unemployment, so we can play. Thatʼs why we have to destroy the present politico-economic system. - Arther C. Clarke (1960ʼs) Utopia? so we can play digital Athens? :,, : 101
/ ʻ ʼ.? 102
! / 103
(!) /,??! /? 104
? 21 ʻ ʼ,, ʻ / ʼ?? 105
= Act /? :, ʻ ʼ To undertand a thing is to gain the power to change it. - Ramez Naam, Nexus 106
! 네트워크경제이론 107
economics of networks There is a central difference between the old and new economics: the old industrial economy was driven by economics of scale; the new information economy is driven by economics of networks. Carl Shapiro & Hal R. Varian, Information Rules, 1998. p. 173 108
economies of scale, returns to scale /, positive EoS, cf. (marginal product): ʻ ʼ /, MPL = F L ( ) Y = F K, L F( α K,β L) α F( K, L) MPK = F K 109
output input 2 input 1 110
output input 2 input 1 111
Economies of scope ʻ ʼ ʻ2 ʼ ʻ ʼ ʻ ʼ ʻ ʼ multiple use : one source, multi-use 112
Product bundling / ʻ / ʼ, : Triple Play (IP TV, Internet, Telephone) MS Office 113
: (graph) (node) (edge/link) Degree: (edge) 114
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Metcalfeʼs law,. n ( n 1 ) 2 n n2 2 116
network formation the question of how networks form two keys: interaction & contagiousness flue epidemic innovation S-Curve 117
Diffusion of innovations 118
Interactive innovation 119
critical mass : critical mass (exponential growth) 120
bandwagon effect ʻ / ʼ 121
(positive externality), (utility) / : path dependence /, 122
, Lock-in effect, Switching Costs Collective switching costs are far higher than all individual switching costs because of the coordination hurdle. stickiness how to increase lock-in? 123
ʻ ʼ U 1 0 x 1 U 2 x 2 0 124
ʻ ʼ U 2 0 x 1 U 1 x 2 0 125
two-sided markets : role of intermediation single homing, multi homing,,, facebook, app economy 126
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two-sided markets 129
vs. : Supply-side driven economies : Demand-Side driven economies 130