FUTURES MARKET OUTLOOK&STRATEGY SAMSUNG FUTURES MONTHLY No. 153 / 216. 9. 28 1 재정으로가는길

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/() () 15 125 12 121 99 117 96 113 93 19 9 15 (%) 16Y.2 16Y.3 16Y.5 16Y.7 16Y.8-2 -1 1 2 3 (%) -5-2 1 4 7 1 26

(%) 1-1.7-2.4.1 -.2 -.5 13Y.1 13Y.11 14Y.9 15Y.7 16Y.5-3 -4-5 (%, yoy) 5 UFJ 27

(%, yoy) 1 7 (%, of GDP) 4 4 1-2 -4-8 -5-12 9Y 96Y 2Y 8Y 14Y Y 3Y 6Y 9Y 12Y 15Y 28

(% of GDP) (of GDP) 6 (of GDP) 3 () -3-6 -9-12 -15 7Y.3 8Y.3 9Y.3 Y.3 1Y.3 16 14 12 1 8 6 ( ) 14 112 84 56 28 () Y.3 3Y.7 6Y.11 1Y.3 13Y.7 ( ) 7 56 42 28 14 29

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12 1 8 6 4 2 ( ) () 2 1-1 -2-3 13Y.8 14Y.7 15Y.6 16Y.5 37

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Sugar 51.% Sugar 14.8% Silver 38.3% Wheat 11.9% Gold 25.1% Corn 1.% Coffee 21.3% Nickel 8.9% WTI 2.6% Cotton 6.2% Nickel 2.5% Coffee 5.3% Gasoline 1.% Copper 3.7% Cotton 9.7% Silver 2.5% Aluminum 9.6% Aluminum 2.3% Soybean 9.3% Gold 1.4% Copper 1.7% WTI -.1% Corn -7.5% Soybean -.8% Wheat-14.% Gasoline -1.3% 9 9 8 WTI 3. 8 WTI 3. Soybean 2. 1. Natural Gas Soybean 2. 1. Natural Gas.. -1. -1. Wheat -2. Gold Wheat -2. Gold Corn Silver Corn Silver Copper Copper 4

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25 8% 7% 2 6% 5% 15 4% 3% 1 2% 1% 5 % -1% -2% 13Y.7 14Y.1 14Y.7 15Y.1 15Y.7 16Y.1 42

5 3 5 6 45 28 45 4 26 4 5 35 24 35 4 3 22 3 25 2 25 3 2 18 2 15 16 15 2 1 14 1 1 5 12 5 1 13Y.1 14Y.4 14Y.1 15Y.4 15Y.1 16Y.4 13Y.2 13Y.11 14Y.8 15Y.5 16Y.2 43

6 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 1-1 1-2 -3 13Y.8 14Y.5 15Y.2 15Y.11 16Y.8 11Y.1 12Y.1 13Y.1 14Y.1 15Y.1 44

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12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 14Y.8 15Y.2 15Y.8 16Y.2 16Y. 46

6 15M-3M 3 4 3M-Cash(R) 2 2 1-1 -2-2 -4-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-6 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7-4 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7-3 6 3 15M-3M 5 3M-Cash(R) 25 4 2 3 15 2 1 1 5-1 -5-2 -1 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7 45 4 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 18 6 16 5 14 12 4 1 3 8 6 2 4 15M-3M 2 3M-Cash(R) 1 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7 5-5 -1-15 -2-5 -25-1 -3-35 15M-3M -15-4 3M-Cash(R) -45-2 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4 16Y.7 47

12, 12% 99% 98% 97% 98% 93% 1, 1% 8, 6, 4, 2, Capacity /Capa 69% 18% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Saudi UAE Kuwait Iraq Nigeria Iran Libya 48

12 216 1 216 5 8 6 4 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 216 1,5 215 1, 5 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 49

1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,2 1,2 1, 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 8 6 4 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 75 7 65 6 55 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5

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14 24 $/oz $/oz 13 21 12 18 11 15 1 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 12 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.8 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 35 12 1 8 6 4 2 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.8 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 29 28 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 6 $ 3 5 25 2 4 3 15 1 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 2 1 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 16Y.9 52

8 7 6 5 52 5 48 5 4 44 39 39 39 34 3 3 23 2 13y.4 13y.1 14y.4 14y.1 15y.4 15y.1 16y.4

3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 13Y.6 14Y.6 15Y.6 16Y.6

월간금융시장동향 채권 Korea United States Europe (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 12 전월말 ( 우 ) 1.6 9 6 3-3 1.4 1.2 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 2 전월말 ( 우 ) 2 1 1.6 1.2.8.4 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 전월말 ( 우 ) -2-4 -6-8 -.3 -.6 US 1Y Yield & MOVE Index (bp) MOVE INDEX US 1Y( 우 ) (%) 85 8 75 7 65 6 1.8 1.6 1.4-6 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 1-1 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -1 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -.9 55 16Y.6 16Y.7 16Y.8 16Y.9 1.2 주식 Advanced Markets Emerging Markets S&P5 & VIX Index 2% 1.% 4% 2.8% 2,2 S&P5 VIX( 우 ) 3 % 2%.9%.8%.7% 2,1 25 -.3% -.4% -.5% -1.1% % 2-2% -2.5% -2% -.6% 2, 15-4% 영국캐나다호주미국유로존일본 -4% -3.2% 러시아한국브라질인니인도중국 1,9 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 16Y.8 16Y.9 1 환율 Advanced Markets 달러대비월간변동률 2.7% 3% 2.% 2% 1%.5% % -1% -.5% -.9% -1.1% -2% JPY AUD EUR 달러지수 CAD GBP Energy/Agriculture 5% 4.7% 3.9% 4% 3% 2.6% 2% 1%.4% % -1% -1.% -2% -1.4% 옥수수밀천연가스대두 WTI 브렌트 Emerging Markets 달러대비월간변동률 3% 2.4% 2.2% 2% 1.6%.8% 1%.1% % -.2% -1% -2% IDR RUB KRW INR CNY BRL 원자재 Non-Ferrous Metal 12% 8.9% 8% 3.7% 4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.3%.4% % 니켈구리은알루미늄금아연 EUR/USD & EUR 3M Volatility (%) EUR/USD 변동성3M EUR/USD( 우 ) ($) 12 1.16 11 1.14 1 9 1.12 8 1.1 7 6 1.8 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 16Y.8 16Y.9 CRB Index 2 CRB Index 19 18 17 16 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 16Y.8 16Y.9 국내외국인현 / 선물순매수동향 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 현물 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 2 선물 ( 억원 ) 채권현물 ( 계약 ) 3 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) 1 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) USD 선물 15, 1, 5, - 15, 1, 5, - -5, 2, 1, - -1, 2, - -2, -4, 5, - -5, -1, -15, 2, 1, - -1, -5, -1, 5일누적 2일누적 5 일누적 2 일누적 -2, -6, 5일누적 2일누적 5 일누적 2 일누적 -2, 5 일누적 2 일누적 -2, 5 일누적 2 일누적 216년 9월 28일수요일기준작성