Haparanda/Tornio Russia 5,600 km 1 Day 600 km 0.3 Day 970 km 1 Day 9,870 km Halifax 8 Days Narvik 0.6 Day Tornio 1 Day Vainikkala 8.2 Days Freight Transport Sequence Vostochny 2009. 10. 28(wed) Vostochny Narvik Sweden Finland Oulu Vainikkala St. Petersburg Harbin Lianyungang International Logistics Society of Korea Scandinavian Segment New York Boston Halifax Port Gauge Change Rail Terminal Zabaykalsk Connecting Eurasian Railway with Korean PortsLanzhou Canada Ulaanbaatar Haparanda/Tornio Brest Park, Chang Ho (Ph. D. & Prof. Rotterdam of JEI University) Azimuthal Equidistant Polar Projection ource: International Union of Railways (2004) The Northern East West (N.E.W.) Freight Corridor, Transportutvikling AS. Oulu Archangel'sk Vologda Vainikkala St. Petersburg Moscow Russia Yekaterinburg Perm' Novosibirsk Irkutsk Mongolia Lokot Astana Presnogorkovka Kazakhstan Druzhba Beijing Urumqi Transatlantic Segment China Rail Main Trunk (Broad Gauge) Rail Main Trunk (Standard Gauge) Rail Connector (Broad Gauge) Rail Connector (Standard Gauge) Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, November 200 1
CONTENTS Ⅰ. 세계해운및물류여건의변화 Ⅱ. 우리나라항만의여건분석 Ⅲ. Eurasian Railway 의특성 Ⅳ. 우리나라항만과 Eurasian Railway 의연계활용방안
Ⅰ. 세계해운및항만물류여건 3
1. Paradigm Shift of the Global Logistics Pattern 1) Paradigm Shift of the Global Logistics Shipping Only Global Integrated Logistics(Shipping, Aero Transport, & Telecom) 3 Main Trunk Routes(Pacific, Atlantic, Eurasian Routes) Intra Routes of Economic Blocs(EU, NAFTA, ASEAN+NEA etc), especially China Route Oriented Reorganization Connection between Logistics Complex of Road & Rail Platform and Port & Airport Shipper s Dominance to choice of Sea or Air Port The Era of Super High speed Ship & WIG Ship Very Large Containership(over 12,000TEU Class) 2) Logistics Trends of Northeast Asia China / Japan / Far Eastern Russia / Mongol / North Korea 3) Others(ASEAN, EU, NAFTA, Africa etc) Southeast Asia and India, Southwest Asia / Americas / EU / Africa etc
1. Paradigm Shift of the Global Logistics Pattern 4) Trends of Global Logistic Companies : Reinforcement of Dominance of Global Market by M&A < the Sphere of Shipping >: 53 M&As from 1997 5 World Major Shipping Companies: 42.1% of Shipping Market (1996:28.6% 2001:35.2% 2006:42.1%) CMA-CGM(France) merged Delmas and OTAL(2005.1), Maersk(Denmark) merged P&O Nedloyd(England)(2005.8) etc. < the Sphere of 3PL> monopoly and oligopoly by M&A : Reinforcement of Market share and Risk Management DPWN merged Exel(2005), DB merged Bax Global(2006), TNT merged Wilson Logistics(2004) 33% of 3PL Market by EU 20 Companies Source : KMI, 글로벌물류네트워크구축전략과주요해외물류거점사업, 2007. 5
1. Paradigm Shift of the Global Logistics Pattern < the Sphere of Port > 10 Great GTO : 56.8% of Global Terminals, 41.3% of Cargo Volumes(2004) 58.9% Forecasting in 2010 DP World merged P&O Ports(2006), PSA Purchased parts of stocks of HPH(2006) 100 Public 22.6% Public 21.2% Public 20.8% Private 20.6% Private 20.1% Private 20.3% 50 Global Terminal Operator Occupancy GTO GTO GTO 56.8% 58.7% 58.9% 0 2004 2007 2010 Source : KMI, 글로벌물류네트워크구축전략과주요해외물류거점사업, 2007.
2. Three Main Trunk Routes of the World No.3 No.1 No.2
3. Maritime Routes and Strategic Locations 선박의대형화에따른해운항로와전략적거점의변화 - Post Panamax(4,000TEU 이상 ) 급컨테이너선박의 Panama canal 통행제한으로태평양항로의 American Land Bridge 연계를통한 Sea & Rail 복합운송활성화 - Post Suezmax(12,000TEU 이상 ) 급컨테이너선박의출현시유라시아항로의 Sea & Rail 복합운송활성화예상, Malacamax 출현하면세계해운재편예상 Gibraltar Bosporus Suez Hormuz Panama Bab el-mandab Malacca Good Hope Magellan 8
4. Capacity of Key Strategic Passages 컨테이너선박의대형화추세 - Panamax 시대 : 1980 년대 - Suezmax 시대 : 2000 년대 - Malaccamax 시대 : 2020 년대예상 Standard Capacity Depth TEU Panamax 65,000 dwt 12 meters (40 feet) Suez-max 120,000 dwt 16 meters (58 feet) Malacca-max 300,000 dwt 21 meters (68 feet) 4,000 12,000 18,000 9
5. Great Circle Distance between New York, Moscow and Tokyo Northern Hemisphere 북극해경유대권항로시대준비 United States 40'45"N 73'59"W Orthographic Projection (North Pole) 10,834 km Tokyo 34'41"N 139'44"E 7530 km Russia Orthographic Projection (South Pole) Southern Hemisphere - 지난여름독일의북극해경유시범항해 - 2020 년이후봄 - 가을사이북극해항로개설가능성높음 - 항로의특성상컨테이너정기항로보다는 Bulk 및특수선항로가유리할전망 New York 7540 km 55'45"N 37'36"E - 컨항로등점차항로활용도향상예상 Moscow - 항로특성상수송화물제약이많을것임 - 유라시아대륙철도와보완관계형성예상 Moscow - 북극해항로용쇄빙형무역선출현예상 New York Tokyo - 우리나라해운 - 조선산업간연계강화 10 Geographic Projection
6. The Northern East-West Freight Corridor The Northern East-West Freight Corridor Narvik Sweden Haparanda/Tornio Finland Russia Oulu Vainikkala St. Petersburg 1 Day 0.3 Day 1 Day 5,600 km 600 km 970 km 9,870 km Halifax 8 Days Narvik 0.6 Day Tornio 1 Day Vainikkala 8.2 Days Vostochny Vostochny Freight Transport Sequence Harbin Lianyungang Scandinavian Segment Beijing Zabaykalsk Canada Irkutsk Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Lanzhou China Russia Novosibirsk Lokot Druzhba Urumqi New York Boston Halifax Yekaterinburg Perm' Haparanda/Tornio Archangel'sk Oulu Vologda Vainikkala St. Petersburg Moscow Astana Presnogorkovka Kazakhstan Transatlantic Segment Rail Main Trunk (Broad Gauge) Port Rail Main Trunk (Standard Gauge) Gauge Change Rotterdam Brest Rail Connector (Broad Gauge) Rail Terminal Rail Connector (Standard Gauge) Azimuthal Equidistant Polar Projection Source: International Union of Railways (2004) The Northern East West (N.E.W.) Freight Corridor, Transportutvikling AS. Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, November 2005 TSR : 나홋트카, 보스토치니 ~ 하바롭스크 ~ 카림스카야 ~ 울란우데 ~ 타이세트 ~ 예카쩨린부르크 ~ 카나시 ~ 모스크바 ( 총 9,208km) TCR : 롄원강 ~ 쉬저우 ~ 정저우 ~ 란저우 ~ 우루무치 ~ 아라산커우 (8,613km ) 11
Ⅱ. 우리나라항만의여건분석 12
1. 항만집중이론과항만의발전 1) 항만집중이론과우리나라항만의위상 지방항만 (Local port) : 우리나라무역항의대부분 ( 부산항, 광양항, 인천항제외 ) -> Regional Hub-port : 인천항, 광양항등세계 100대항만 ( 세계 20대항만제외 ) : Form a Hub & Spoke System (more than a million TEUs) -> Hub port : 세계 30대항만 ( 세계 10대항만제외 ) : Platform of Switching typed Transshipment (more than 3 million TEUs) -> Mega Hub port : 부산항등세계 10대항만 : Representative Ports in their continents (more than 10 million TEUs) 2) 항만의발전요인 항만집중이론이란 Hub port 경쟁은선사와화주에의해결정된다는이론임 -> 항만발전의지름길은대형선유치 (Short cut to develop a port is inviting larger ship)
2. 항만발전과정 Terminal (port) Terminal-dependent activities (hinterland) Industries Clustering Terminal-client link Inter-terminal link hinterland (logistics complex) 1, organized cluster, 2. Innovative cluster sea land trade port sea land Materials Products sea land industrial port hinterland factories port system port industry cluster past present future Cargo Handling Place, 14 Port to Port Relationship is most Important Port and Hinterland System Role of Hinterland Important Port and Industry Cluster New Function Created Port
3. 항만 - 산업클러스터조성및발전방향 Port industry & Port related Manufacturing Cluster Relationship Terminal (port) Terminal-dependent activities (hinterland) Industries Clustering Terminal-client link Inter-terminal link Axis of Port Development Innovative Cluster Cargo Handling Only Port to Port Relationship is most Important. Port and Hinterland Role of Hinterland Organized Cluster Port and Industry Cluster New Function Created Port 15 Informal Cluster Axis of Cluster Development
4. 우리나라의물류여건분석 1) 수도권에집중된단일물류시장 : 항만배후지의공유 2) 국내물류시장의도로운송편중 -> 대체수송수단강구 3) 수출입화물의항만비중 : Volume의 99.7%, Price의 70% ( 수출입화물의공항비중 : Volume의 0.3%, Price의 30%) 4) 물류기술의급속한발전 -> 4PL, e-logistics, SCM의발전 5) 선진국에비하여높은물류비 -> 국가물류비절감및고부가가치물류활성화 6) 동북아 ( 한-중-일 ) 경제블록의상호의존도심화 -> 블록내물류네트워크강화 7) 해운과항공운송, 정보통신, 대륙철도가연계된복합운송수요증가 -> Global Integrated Logistics Network 강화
5. 우리나라권역별주요항만의여건분석 1) 수도권항만 : 인천-평택당진항 -> 중국의화북, 동북지역과인접, TCR, TMGR, TMR 연계성높음 -> 우리나라최대소비시장인수도권의관문항, 인천항과평택당진항간의연계성미흡 -> 항만과철도의연계미흡 ( 평택항은미비 ) 2) 동남권항만 : 부산 - 울산 - 마산항 -> 두만강유역금삼각지구경유중국동북지역과 TMR, TSR 연계효율높음 -> 세계 5위컨테이너처리실적의부산항, 우리나라최대의동남공업벨트거점항 3) 중부권항만 : 군장 - 새만금신항 -> 서해안의중앙에위치, 중국화북, 화동지역과인접, 환황해권교역에유리 -> 새만금신항의경우서해안에서최대수심확보가능 4) 서남권 : 광양 - 목포항 -> 남해안중앙의광양항과국토서남단의목포항은중국화동, 화남지역과가장가까움 -> 광양항과목포항간연계성부족, 특히배후산업단지와의연계체계구축필요 5) 동해안권 : 포항 - 동해 ( 속초 ) 항 -> 두만강유역금삭각지구와가장인근, 환동해권국가간교역에유리
Ⅲ. Eurasian Railway 의특성 18
1. TSR 1) TSR 의특성 (Busan-Rajin-Khasan-Ussurisk-)Vladivostok-Khabarovsk-Chita-Ulan Ude-Martesevo 3개국경유 : S. & N. Korea, and Russia, 북한의라진또는극동러시아항만에서환적장점 : - 전구간광궤 ( 환적없음 ), 유라시아대륙의최단거리노선이므로수송시간가장빠름단점 : : 시베리아지역의중간경유지물량이없으며, 극동지역거점항의항만시설및이용여건열악 2) TSR 의활용가능성 부산항과연계시유라시아철도화물의간선항로연계체계형성가능부산항의대중앙아시아및러시아물류서비스의 Alternative Route 확보
2. TCR 1) TCR의특성 (Busan/Incheon-)Lianyungang-Lanzhou-Urumqi-Aktogai-Ushtobe-Almaty-Tashkent- -Bukhara-Turkenabad-Ashgabat-Turkmenbashi 7개국경유 - S. Korea, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan 장점 : - 중국을횡단하고중앙아시아 C.I.S. 국가를많이거쳐다양한교역기회마련단점 : - 표준궤 (China)-광궤(Kazakhstan) 사이환적 (Urumqi-Dostyk) 발생, 국경통과시간발생 2) TCR 의활용가능성 우리나라의중앙아시아 C.I.S. 국가간교역네트워크확보중국중, 서부지역접근성제고
3. TMR, TMGR 1) TMR 의특성및활용방안 Route 1 : (Busan/Incheon-)Tianjin-Shenyang-Changchun-Harbin-Ulan Ude- Irkutsk-Novosibirsk-Yekaterinburg Route 2 : (Busan-)Cheongjin/Rajin-Hunchun-Changchun-Harbin-Ulan Ude- Irkutsk-Novosibirsk-Yekaterinburg 특성및활용방안 : 중국동북지역간접근성제고, 만주를경유한 TSR 연계체계구축 2) TMGR 의특성및활용방안 - (Busan/Incheon-)Tianjin-Ulaanbaatar-Ulen Ude-Irkutsk-Novosibirsk -> 중국화북지역과몽골을거쳐 TSR로연계 -> 중국의수도권과내륙국가인몽골간접근성제고
Ⅳ. 우리나라항만과 Eurasian Railway 의연계활용방안 22
1. 부산 - 러시아 유럽간 TSR 과해상운송거리및기간비교 해상운송 TSR 운송 도착지 ( 국가, 지역 ) 거리 (Km) 기간 ( 일 ) 거리 (Km) 기간 ( 일 ) 핀란드루자이카 22,000 33 11,300 20 러시아 모스크바 23,000 35 10,280 21 타간로크 9,500 30 10,950 26 네덜란드 로테르담 20,800 30 12,200 22 독일 함부르크 21,000 32 11,000 22 헝가리 부다페스트 - - - - 체코 프라하 - - - - 자료 : 한국무역협회, TSR 과해상운송의운송시간및운임비교. 2005. 6, p. 19.
2. 부산항 -TSR, TMR 연결을위한두만강유역항만및육로여건 1) 두만강유역의항만여건 부산항에서항로를개설할수있는두만강유역항만 - 러시아의포시에트항, 자루비노항 : 러극동항만내철도와 TSR 지선이직접연결, 외부도로와연결 - 북한의청진항, 나진 / 선봉항 : 북한의나진및선봉항은항만내철도인입선이국가철도망과연계, 도로를통해연결 2) TSR, TMR 연계를위한두만강유역의철도및도로망 - 북 러 : 나진 / 선봉-하산- 철도 (TSR) - 북 중 : 청진-도문-훈춘철도 (TMR), 나진-도문철도 ( 현재사용안함 ), 나진-원정-훈춘도로 - 중 러 : 훈춘-마하리노철도, 훈춘-자루비노도로 2010 년창춘 - 훈춘고속도로, 2011 년동변도철도개통예정
3. 부산항 / 수도권항 -TCR 연결을위한중국항만의실태 1) TCR 연결위한중국항만여건 부산항 / 인천 - 평택당진항에서항로를개설할수 TCR 기종점항만 - 중국장쑤성의렌윈강항만 - 중국산둥성의르자오항만 2) TCR 연계를위한철도및도로망 - 렌윈강항만내컨테이너터미널까지철도인입 TSR 직접연결, 컨테이너하역및수송가능 - 르자오항만내철도인입 TSR 연결, 석탄과철광석하역및수송전용, 컨테이너취급안함 3) TCR 연계기대효과및활용방안 - 과거중국은해안지방을중심으로개방발전되었으나점차중부와서부내륙지역으로진출 - 중국의중서부지방간물류네트워크구축 - 특히많은유라시아내륙국가를경유하고있으므로우리나라의새로운무역환경형성
4. 대륙철도연계 1) 부산항 -TSR,TMR <TSR 연계항만 > - 포시에트, 자루비노, 나진 / 선봉 <TMR 연계항만 > - 청진, 나진 / 선봉 2) 부산항 / 인천평택항 -TCR,TMGR,TMR <TCR 연계항만 > - 렌윈강, 르자오 <TMGR 연계항만 > - 텐진 <TMR 연계항만 > - 다렌, 단둥
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