13 (2001) : 23 1 254.. 1. 2.. 1. 2.. 1. :,, 2.,,. 1. 2.
I.. 21 (window effects). /DVD, ( ),,.,...,,....,.? 13 / 232
..,,,.,,..,,,.,..,...,,. / 233
II. 1. 1940. 1940 (Gallup) ARI(Audience Research Incorporated) 16% (Austin, 1989). 1970, 1980 1990. Garrison(1971). 1960 62 Garrison,.. Garrison Simonet(1978). Simonet 1930 197073,,,,,.,., 1980 Kindem(1982) Garrison Simonet,. Kindem., 13 / 234
. A, A.. Garrison Simonet 60 70. Kindem 1940 26%. 1990 Wallace Seigerman Bolbrook(1993). 1956 1988 111 1,687,,,, (control variables). Adjusted R47%.,, (p<0.05)., 5.6 million, (p<0.0001)., Prag Casavant(1994),,. Vany & Walls(1999) 1984 1996 2,015,,,, (,,, ) / 235
., (right skewed) (Pareto Distribution)..,. 2., 1990 TV,. (1998),. Wallace 2 (1993). 1988 1995 50 ( 25, 25 ) 3., 3 1 6, 10 4.,,,,., 2000. (2000) 13 / 236
,.., ( ).. (2000)., ( ).. III. 1..,,. (1998) 1., / 237
,,,,,.,........,.,. 9),,,,,,.., Vany&Walls(1999), (0 25/25 75/75 100)., 9) 1:1, 2 (, 1998). 13 / 238
,,, (75), (25 75), (25). 2. 1988 1998 11, 732. 19881980. 10) 11 Kindem(1982),. 10) 1980,,,, 1985 5. 1980. / 239
IV. 1. :,, 1). (1998) 5.,.. 5 5, 5, 10. (ANOVA) < 1>. 13 / 240
< 1> M=80,574 (10 N=146 ) M=109,900 (5 9 ) N=142 model I (75 ) model II (50 25) model III (25 ) M=87,470 N=114 M=57,583 N=153 M=167,992 N=63 M=295,321 N=49 M=171,913 N=52 M=172,741 N=44 M=17,871 N=64 M=16,597 N=66 M=22,233 N=45 M=14,521 N=80 M=1,928 N=19 M=1,468 N=27 M=1861 N=17 M=1,652 N=29 M=32,453 (1 4 ) N=444 M=49,560 N=464 M=156,789 N=71 M=225,819 N=87 M=12,922 N=236 M=12,973 N=241 M=1,660 N=137 M=1,640 N=136 F=18.167 ** F=3.074 * F=5.667 ** F=1.100 N. S F=7.980 *** F=16.941 *** F=1.053 N. S F=0.326 N. S *** p<0.001/ ** p<0.01/ *p<0.05,.., 1 4 5 3., 5 10 5 10..,., 1980 1990 1990 2, 5 10. 11) Model I. 75%, 11) 1988 1993 (6 ) 1994 1999 (6 ) ( ) t. / 241
2., Model II Model I. Model III( ).,... Model I,., Model II. Model III.., Model I,. Model II, (minimum guarantee). 2),. t 1988-1993 425( ) 36883.04 92093.84 1994-1999 307( ) 85028.31 195584.50 404.378-4.004*** *** p<0.001 1990(8 ), (5 ), (6 ), (2 ). 13 / 242
10 5 5., 6 /4 6 /1 3. 1. < 2>. < 2> M=88,068 N=110 M=54,646 N=204 M=50,104 N=418 *p<0.1 F=2.974 * model I (75 ) model II (50 25) model III (25 ) M=65,710 N=174 M=59,165 N=184 M=52,028 N=374 F=0.541 N. S M=191,732 N=46 M=177,448 N=54 M=214,270 N=83 F=0.389 N. S M=213,956 N=47 M=158,191 N=60 M=218,933 N=76 F=1.182 N. S M=17,411 N=48 M=14,424 N=103 M=13,801 N=215 F=2.470 N. S M=14,210 N=93 M=15,060 N=89 M=14,276 N=184 F=0.811 N. S M=2,004 N=16 M=1,700 N=47 M=1,598 N=120 F=1.086 N. S M=1,648 N=34 M=1,565 N=35 M=1,692 N=114 F=0.822 N. S,...,,, / 243
. 1990 Model I /,. 2.,, 1), 12, 15, 18 4. < 3>. < 3> m odel I (75 ) model II (50 25) model III (25 ) 12 15 18 M=30,488 N=80 M=59,052 N=55 M=92,492 N151 M=57,075 N=446 F=4.259* M=121,377 N =15 M=195,109 N =14 M=263,197 N =49 M=178,452 N =105 F=1.914 n. s M=13,761 N=43 M=16,305 N=31 M=15,011 N=67 M=14,159 N=225 F=0.532 n. s M=1,214 N =22 M=1,087 N =10 M=1,824 N =35 M=1,744 N =116 F=2.902* *p<0.05, 15,.,. 12, 18 13 / 244
, 2 3., Model I, II, Model I15 2.,, SF,. 2).,,,.,. < 4>. / 245
< 4> m odel I (75 ) model II (50 25) m odel III (25 ) 1 M=48472 N=42 2 M=86632(1) N=52 3 M=31209 N=62 4 M=58746 N=61 5 M=53188 N=64 6 M=51458 N=56 7 M=76981(3) N=54 8 M=52567 N=55 9 M=77292(2) N=71 10 M=47621 N=73 11 M=44432 N=81 12 M=62667 N=61 F=0.698 N. S M=194070 N=8 M=263880(2) N=15 M=126544 N=12 M=333313(1) N=9 M=166444 N=17 M=136180 N=19 M=225352 N=17 M=188121 N=13 M=154385 N=32 M=211141 N=14 M=258189(3) N=12 M=231272 N=15 F=0.781 N. S M=18155(2) N =26 M=18002(3) N =30 M=11317 N =35 M=15207 N =37 M=16151 N =34 M=11732 N =23 M=113125 N =23 M=14206 N =30 M=18220(1) N =29 M=13103 N =37 M=11145 N =40 M=14168 N =22 F=2.095 * M=1401 N =8 M=946 N =7 M=1353 N =15 M=1400 N =15 M=1948 N =13 M=1740 N =14 M=1724 N =14 M=1619 N =12 M=1904 N =10 M=1614 N =22 M=1894 N =29 M=1745 N =24 F=0.820 N. S *p<0.05, ( ), 2 9.. Model II1, 2, 9., 2 13 / 246
3.,., Model I 4211, 411. 3) < 5>., / / / /()/ / / / 9. (732 ) 324.. / 247
< 5> m odel I (75 ) model II (50 25) model III (25 ) / M=110924(2) N=45 M=24313 N=53 M=19494 N=85 M=119278(1) N=64 M=27108 N=28 M=64508 N=44 M=47984 N=324 M=75613 N=74 M=97163(3) N=15 F=18.167 ** M=211662(3) N=22 M=91679 N=9 M=118010 N=8 M=383960(1) N=19 M=150344 N=4 M=154817 N=16 M=169543 N=77 M=237730(2) N=21 M=191389 N=7 F=2.089 * M=20332(1) N =16 M=17233(3) N =26 M=13058 N =52 M=10591 N =29 M=13152 N =11 M=16452 N =21 M=14129 N =166 M=14803 N =39 M=19372(2) N =6 F=1.902 M=1389 N=7 M=1442 N=18 M=1356 N=25 M=1962(2) N=16 M=998 N=13 M=2256(1) N=7 M=1812 N=81 M=1837(3) N=14 M=745 N=2 F=2.025 * ** p<0.01/ * p<0.05.,,,., Model I, Model II., 1/3(19/64),., 45 (22 ) Model I, Model II.. 13 / 248
V. 1..,.,.,. Kindem, Wallace 2, Prag,., (Model I),.,..,,,,.., <15 >,,.,., SF / 249
, SF.,. 2.,,,.,?.,,,. 5 10, 5 1, 0. 15, 1 0 < 6>. < 6> (,, ) B Beta t () 14024.980 1.733.084 54236.412.181 4.968.000 17855.919.059 1.606.109 61387.059.149 4.075.000 29363.531.081 2.236.026 : F=15.111 p <0.001 Adjusted R 0.072, 13 / 250
5%,..,,, Adjusted R 0.769. < 7> ( ) B Beta t 18028.733 4.850.000 27785.831.093 5.126.000 11761.705.029 1.546.122 15005.437.041 2.280.023 713.531.860 46.725.000 : F=603.518 p<0.001..,., ( ).,, 15 /,.,,. 1 / 251
( ),, < 8>. < 8> 1.00.365(**) 1.00.494(**).134(**) 1.00.870(**).058.730(**) 1.00 ** p< 0.01 level (2 tailed). < 8>,.,,..,....,.,.. 13 / 252
,, 10, 1985., :,, 48, 2000.,,, 1977., :, 2, 2000.,,, 1999.,,, 1998., ", 1, 1998. Albert Moran(edit)., Film Policy, New York: Routledge, 1996. Austin, Bruce A., Immediate Seating: A Look at Movie Audiences, Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing Company, 1989. Bagella, M. & Becchetti, L., The Determinants of Motion Picture Box Office Performance: Evidence from Movie Produced in Italy, Journal of Cultural Economics vol 23, 1999. Fred, Z., New Film Website Promotion and Box office Performance, Journal of Advertising, vol 40, 2000. Kindem, G., The Business of Motion Picture, Carbondale, Southern Illinois University Press, 1982. Prag, J. J & Casavant, J., An Empirical Study of Determinant of Revenues and Marketing Expenditures in Cultural Economics vol 18(3). the Motion Picture Industry, Journal of Simonet, T., Regression Analysis of Prior Experiences of Key Production Personnel as Predictor of Revenues from High Grossing Motion Picture in American Release, New York: Amo Press, 1978. / 253
Vany, A. & Walls W., Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Bow Office?, Journal of Cultural Economics, vol 23, 1999. Vogel, H. L., Entertainment Industry Economics: A Guide for Financial Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 1994. Wallace et al., The Role of Actors and Actress in the Success of Film: How much is a Movie Star Worth?, Journal of Cultural Economics, vol 17, no. 1, 1993. 13 / 254