제출문 한국개발연구원원장 김준경

2014 년도예비타당성조사보고서 세종충남대학교병원건립사업 한국개발연구원

제출문 한국개발연구원원장 김준경

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목차 요약 1 제장예비타당성조사의개요 53 제1절사업의배경및목적 53 1. 사업의추진배경및목적 53 2. 사업의기대효과 55 제2절사업의추진경위및주요내용 56 1. 사업의추진근거 56 2. 사업의추진경위 57 3. 사업의개요 58 제3절예비타당성조사의주요내용 62 1. 예비타당성조사의절차 62 2. 예비타당성조사의주요내용 63 제장기초자료분석및조사의주요쟁점 66 제1절기초자료분석 66 1. 사업지역의경제 사회지표 66 2. 교통현황분석 68 제2절보건의료현황분석 70 1. 세종시인구및환경분석 70 2. 보건의료환경분석 74 제3절충남대학교병원현황 77 1. 설립목적및연혁 77 2. 사업및재무현황 79 3. 조직및시설현황 85 제4절사업의주요쟁점 90

1. 기술적검토및비용관련쟁점 90 2. 수요및편익관련쟁점 91 제 5 절시나리오의설정 94 제장기술적검토및비용추정 95 제1절사업계획의적절성검토 95 1. 사업부지의적절성검토 95 2. 시설규모의적절성검토 101 제2절비용추정 109 1. 비용추정의개요 109 2. 총사업비추정 110 3. 운영비산정 142 4. 경제성분석을위한비용산정 145 5. 연차별배분계획 146 제장수요추정 149 제1절수요분석목적및개요 149 제2절세종시인구규모추정의전제 151 제3절진료권설정 169 제4절병상수요추정 178 제5절입원및외래환자수요추정 185 제장편익추정 187 제1절편익추정의개요 187 1. 편익의개요 187 2. 편익의종류와추정방식 188 제2절응급사망자감소편익 192 1. 추정방법 192 2. 응급사망자추이 192 3. 응급사망자감소분추정 198 4. 응급사망비용추정 204

5. 응급사망자감소편익 209 제3절교통비및시간비용절감편익 211 1. 추정방법 211 2. 교통비절감편익의추정 212 3. 이동시간비용절감편익의추정 226 제4절편익의종합 233 제장경제성분석 235 제1절경제성분석 235 제2절경제성분석의주요전제 236 1. 분석방법 236 2. 주요전제 238 제3절경제성분석결과 239 1. 경제성분석결과 239 2. 민감도분석 241 제장정책적분석 244 제1절정책적분석체계 244 제2절정책의일관성및추진의지 245 1. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성평가 245 2. 사업추진의지및선호도 248 3. 사업의준비정도 251 제3절사업추진상의위험요인 254 1. 재원조달가능성 254 2. 환경성 266 제장지역균형발전분석 269 제1절지역낙후도 270 1. 지역낙후도분석개요 270 2. 지역낙후도분석결과 272 제2절지역경제파급효과 274

1. 한국은행지역간산업연관모형 (IRIO) 개요 275 2. 건설등세부문별분석방법 279 3. 지역경제파급효과분석을위한유발계수 281 4. 지역경제파급효과분석결과 285 5. 분석모형의한계및해석상유의점 288 제장종합평가및정책제언 290 제1절 AHP를활용한사업의종합평가 290 1. AHP 분석의개요 290 2. AHP를활용한세종충남대학교병원건립사업의종합평가 292 제2절민간투자사업추진가능성검토 301 1. 민간투자사업추진가능성검토대상기준 301 2. 민간투자사업추진가능성검토방법및수행절차 301 3. 세종충남대학교병원건립사업의민간투자사업추진가능성검토결과 303 제3절종합평가및정책제언 305 1. 종합평가 305 2. 정책제언 310 참고문헌 311 [ 부록 A] 세종충남대학교병원건립에관한 AHP 응답설문지 315

표목차 < 표 -1> 사업의추진경위 57 < 표 -2> 병원기능별면적구성 59 < 표 -3> 총사업비내역 60 < 표 -4> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 당초 ) 60 < 표 -5> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 변경 ) 61 < 표 -1> 세종시인구및세대수 67 < 표 -2> 세종시종사자수 68 < 표 -3> 세종시자동차보유대수 68 < 표 -4> 세종시도로연장및포장현황 69 < 표 -5> 주변지역도로망현황 69 < 표 -6> 세종시출범이후월별인구현황 (2012년 7월부터 2014년 3월까지 ) 70 < 표 -7> 세종시이전중앙행정기관및소속기관 71 < 표 -8> 세종시단계별개발계획 74 < 표 -9> 입원및외래진료실적 (2012년) 79 < 표 -10> 진료과별환자현황 (2012년) 80 < 표 -11> 진료과별환자분류별외래진료현황 (2012년) 81 < 표 -12> 보험종류별환자현황 (2012년) 82 < 표 -13> 지역사회공공사업 ( 취약계층진료실적 ) 82 < 표 -14> 다빈도입원및수술현황 82 < 표 -15> 진료과별수익현황 (2012년) 83 < 표 -16> 손익계산서 84 < 표 -17> 대차대조표 85 < 표 -18> 인력현황 (2013년 1월 31일기준 ) 85 < 표 -19> 진료과별의료진현황 (2012년 12월 31일기준 ) 87 < 표 -20> 대지및건물현황 88 < 표 -21> 진료시설현황 89 < 표 -22> 협력병원현황 89

< 표 -23> 환자의뢰회송현황 89 < 표 -1> 세종충남대학교병원의건립개요 95 < 표 -2> 부지규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 98 < 표 -3> 부지규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 99 < 표 -4> 계획병상당부지면적비교 100 < 표 -5> 세종충남대학교병원의건립계획 101 < 표 -6> 건축규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 102 < 표 -7> 최근국립 / 사립대학병원병상당연면적국내사례 103 < 표 -8> 계획병상당평균면적비교 104 < 표 -9> 부서별면적사례 ( 순면적기준비율 ) 105 < 표 -10> 세종충남대학교부서별면적및구성비 106 < 표 -11> 사례별주차면적및설치대수 107 < 표 -12> 병상당면적검토비교표 108 < 표 -13> 시설면적구성비검토비교표 108 < 표 -14> 비용및편익보정지수 111 < 표 -15> 기존예비타당성조사건축공사비추정방식 112 < 표 -16> 기수행된예비타당성조사사업의병상당연면적 113 < 표 -17> 조달청및교과부승인용자료에서확인된사업의병상당연면적 114 < 표 -18> 예비타당성조사유사사례참고를위한의료시설의종류 115 < 표 -19> 예비타당성조사, 조달청및교과부승인사례목록 116 < 표 -20> 건축공사비산출을위한검토사례목록 117 < 표 -21> 유사사례건축공사비평균 119 < 표 -22> 공공건축물친환경관련제도요약 120 < 표 -23> 신재생에너지목표량산정 121 < 표 -24> 신재생에너지설치비용산출표 121 < 표 -25> 녹색건축물인증항목및배점 122 < 표 -26> 녹색건축물인증등급에따른공사비상승율 123 < 표 -27> 공사비산출표 124 < 표 -28> 지역별지목별보상배율 126 < 표 -29> LH공사의용지공급공고가 127

< 표 -30> 직선보간법산정식 128 < 표 -31> 공사복잡도에따른요율 128 < 표 -32> 설계비산정 129 < 표 -33> 책임감리비요율 130 < 표 -34> 감리비산정 130 < 표 -35> 조사및측량비산정 130 < 표 -36> 부대비총합 131 < 표 -37> 기타투자비용항목 132 < 표 -38> 건축물등의기준내용연수및내용연수범위표 133 < 표 -39> 유사사례의단위면적당의료기기투자비 134 < 표 -40> 의료기기투자비비교표 134 < 표 -41> 유사사례의단위면적당집기비품투자비 136 < 표 -42> 집기비품투자비투자비비교표 136 < 표 -43> 세종충남대학교병원전산장비비산출표 137 < 표 -44> 유사사례의전산시스템투자비분석 138 < 표 -45> 인원추산비교표 139 < 표 -46> 개원전인건비산출표 140 < 표 -47> 기타투자비산정 140 < 표 -48> 세종충남대학교병원의총사업비산정결과 141 < 표 -49> 총사업비산정결과비교표 142 < 표 -50> 의료시설인력분류 143 < 표 -51> 경상운영비항목 ( 예시 ) 144 < 표 -52> 충남대학교병원경상운영비산정 144 < 표 -53> 재투자비산정 145 < 표 -54> 사업진행절차및일정 146 < 표 -55> 총사업비의연차별투입비율 146 < 표 -56> 총사업비의연차별배분계획 147 < 표 -57> 경제성분석을위한비용의연차별배분계획 147 < 표 -58> 경제성분석총괄비용배분표 148 < 표 -1> 세종시출범이후월별인구현황 (2012 년 7 월 ~ 2014 년 2 월 ) 152

< 표 -2> 세종시이전중앙행정기관및소속기관 153 < 표 -3> 세종시이전정부출연연구기관및개별이전기관현황 154 < 표 -4> 세종청사공무원통근버스운행실태 156 < 표 -5> BRT 탑승자현황자료 157 < 표 -6> BRT 시간대별탑승현황 158 < 표 -7> 세종청사직원 KTX 전세객차운행현황 159 < 표 -8> 역외출퇴근세종청사공무원의세종시인구산입 160 < 표 -9> 이전예정정부출연연구기관종사자의세종시인구산입 161 < 표 -10> 세종시월별자동차등록현황 162 < 표 IV-11> 세종시전입인구현황 (2012년 3/4분기-2014년 1/4분기 ) 163 < 표 -12> 세종시의인구및세대수추계 (2018년 ~2047년 ) 167 < 표 -13> 세종시인근의종합병원급이상의의료기관현황 169 < 표 IV-14> 대전및충남지역의응급의료체계 170 < 표 IV-15> 대전본원의입원실인원및외래신환의연도별현황 173 < 표 IV-16> 대전본원의입원및외래연인원의연도별현황 174 < 표 IV-17> 세종충남대학교병원부진료권의의료이용 ( 인구대비및입원 / 외래실인원 ) 현황 175 < 표 -18> 세종충남대학교병원의부진료권지역의입원실인원규모 ( 추정 ) 176 < 표 IV-19> 지역별및전국의입원진료일수 179 < 표 IV-20> 세종충남대학교병원소요병상수추정결과 181 < 표 -21> 시도별인구규모및보유병상수현황 182 < 표 IV-22> 연간입원및외래환자수추정결과, 2018-2047년 186 < 표 -1> 의료시설부문사업의편익추정항목비교 189 < 표 V-2> 주요지역의응급질환사망률통계 (2009년-2012년) 195 < 표 V-3> 진료권응급질환사망자수추정 (2017-2046년) 197 < 표 -4> 응급병상수가외상사망률에미치는영향추정 200 < 표 V-5> 예방가능한응급사망환자수추정결과 203 < 표 -6> 연령별평생기대임금의현재가치추정결과 206 < 표 -7> 응급사망에따른임금손실의현재가치추정 (2010년가격 ) 207 < 표 V-8> 세종시의인구구성 (2009년-2012년) 208

< 표 V-9> 응급사망자감소에따른편익추정 ( 결과 ) 210 < 표 V-10> 세종충남대학교병원예상진료지역의 2012년급여형태별요양급여실적 213 < 표 V-11> 2012년건강보험통계연보의입원청구건수 213 < 표 V-12> 세종충남대학교병원예상진료지역의예상시장점유율 214 < 표 V-13> 지역별지역친화도 (RI, 유출입지표 ) 214 < 표 V-14> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 에서주요지역간거리 215 < 표 V-15> 차량운행비용 (2007년기준 ) 215 < 표 V-16> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 과주요지역간자가용운행에따른비용 215 < 표 V-17> 예상진료권의인구추이및입원환자수 217 < 표 V-18> 세종충남대학교병원으로전환하는입원환자수추계 218 < 표 V-19> 세종충남대학교병원의건립에따른입원환자의교통비절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) 219 < 표 V-20> 주요지역-충남간 / 내교통수단별기종점하루평균통행량 220 < 표 V-21> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 과주요지역간시외버스요금 220 < 표 V-22> 세종충남대학교병원건립에따른입원환자방문객의교통비절감편익추정결과 221 < 표 V-23> 진료권의 2012년외래환자 1인당청구건수 222 < 표 V-24> 의료기관별외래청구건수현황 223 < 표 V-25> 세종충남대학교병원으로전환하는외래연환자수추계 224 < 표 V-26> 전환된외래연환자와동반자의교통비절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) 225 < 표 V-27> 세종충남대학교병원예정지로부터각지역까지의이동시간 226 < 표 V-28> 개인별시간가치 227 < 표 V-29> 입원환자및동반자의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) 228 < 표 V-30> 세종충남대학교병원으로부터각지역까지의이동시간 229 < 표 V-31> 세종충남대학교병원의입원환자방문객의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) 230 < 표 V-32> 외래환자및동반자의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) 232 < 표 V-33> 세종충남대학교병원건립의편익산정결과 234 < 표 -1> 경제성분석기법의비교 236 < 표 -2> 경제성분석결과 239 < 표 -3> 경제성분석흐름표 240

< 표 -4> 할인율변화에따른민감도분석 241 < 표 -5> 비용의변화에따른민감도분석 242 < 표 -6> 편익변화에따른민감도분석 243 < 표 -1> 정책적분석항목의범주화 245 < 표 -2> 세종충남대학교병원건립의연차별배분계획 255 < 표 -3> 세종충남대학교병원의재원조달계획 255 < 표 -4> 국가재정운용계획주요분야별재원배분 (2013~2017년) 256 < 표 -5> 국가재정운용계획의보건복지고용분야투자계획 257 < 표 -6> 국가재정운용계획의교육분야투자계획 258 < 표 -7> 2014년도교육부소관세출예산현황 259 < 표 -8> 2014년도교육부소관세입예산현황 260 < 표 -9> 2014년도교육부소관분야 ( 부문 ) 별예산현황 260 < 표 -10> 국립대병원지원현황 261 < 표 -11> 충남대학교병원연도별자금확보계획 262 < 표 -12> 충남대학교병원의대차대조표 263 < 표 -13> 충남대학교병원의손익계산서 263 < 표 -14> 충남대학교병원의현금기준영업순이익 264 < 표 -15> 충남대학교병원중기재정수지총괄 (2014~2017년) 264 < 표 -16> 공공자금관리기금지원사례 265 < 표 -1> 지역낙후도지수산정에사용되는지표의개요 271 < 표 -2> 지역낙후도지수산정을위한지표간가중치 272 < 표 -3> 시도별지역낙후도지표별순위 273 < 표 -4> 직접영향권의지역낙후도산정결과 274 < 표 -5> 세분류가필요한부문 279 < 표 -6> 투자비내역 285 < 표 -7> 지역경제파급효과 286 < 표 -8> 지역경제활성화효과 288 < 표 -1> 세종충남대학교병원건립사업의조사결과요약 292

< 표 -2> AHP 평가항목요약 295 < 표 -3> 가중치산정범위 296 < 표 -4> 각항목별가중치산정결과 297 < 표 -5> AHP 평가결과 298 < 표 -6> 평가자별의견일치도와 AHP 평점에따른결론 300 < 표 -7> 민간투자사업추진가능성검토방법 302 < 표 -8> 예비타당성조사분석결과요약표 309

그림목차 [ 그림 -1] 사업위치도 58 [ 그림 -2] 조감도 59 [ 그림 -3] 예비타당성조사수행흐름도 62 [ 그림 -1] 세종시위치 67 [ 그림 -2] 국립대학교병원의기능과역할 77 [ 그림 -3] 충남대학교병원의연혁 78 [ 그림 -4] 충남대학교병원의미션 79 [ 그림 -5] 충남대학교병원의비전 79 [ 그림 -6] 충남대학교병원조직도 86 [ 그림 -7] 충남대학교병원시설현황 88 [ 그림 -8] 세종충남대학교병원건립부지현황 90 [ 그림 -1] 대지의광역위치도 96 [ 그림 -2] 세종충남대학교병원건립부지현황 97 [ 그림 -3] 비용추정과정 110 [ 그림 -4] 용지보상비산정과정 124 [ 그림 -1] 공공의료시설사업의사업규모타당성및경제성평가개요 150 [ 그림 -2] 세종특별자치시의구역 ( 범위 ) 151 [ 그림 -3] 세종시의주민등록인구및세대수추이 (2012 년 7 월 ~2014 년 2 월 ) 164 [ 그림 -1] 1k 당응급병상수와인구 10 만명당외상사망률의상관관계 198 [ 그림 -2] 연령별평생기대임금의현재가치추정결과 205 [ 그림 -1] 오송첨단의료복합단지및국제과학비즈니스벨트와연계한연구기능활성 화계획 252

[ 그림 -1] KAIST 와연계한연구기능활성화계획 253 [ 그림 -1] 지역내산업연관표의기본구조 277 [ 그림 -2] 지역간산업연관표 (IRIO) 의기본구조 278 [ 그림 -1] 세종충남대학교병원건립사업의 AHP 계층구조 294 [ 그림 -2] 민간투자사업추진가능성검토수행절차 303

요약

제 I 장예비타당성조사의개요 1. 사업추진배경과필요성 (,, ),., 1, 2,. 1, 2,,,,,,,, -,, 2. 사업추진근거및경위 8 18

< 표 1> 사업의추진경위 18 1 2012. 7. 23, 2 2(, ) 2012. 9. 4 TF (11) 2012. 10. 12 2012. 10. 19 2 2 2012. 12. 24 2012. 12. 26,,, 2013. 1. 16 2013. 1. 29 2013. 1. 30 2013. 2. 27 2013. 3. 18 (, ) 2013. 11. 19 2013 KDI 2014.1.1~ KDI 2014.9.30 3. 사업내용 : 1-4 : 2014~2017(4)

[ 그림 1] 사업위치도 : 500( : 115.7) - : 35,994(10,888) - : 70,545(21,340) - : 775( 542, 233) : 939( 902, 37) [ 그림 2] 조감도

< 표 2> 병원기능별면적구성 () (%) 1. 13,871 26.93 500 ( ) 2. 7,366 14.30,,, 3. 9,117 17.70 4. 8,911 17.30 5. 1,726 3.35 6. 7,686 14.92 (4,992), 7. 2,833 5.50 51,511 100.00 8. 11,332 9. 7,702 62,843 70,545 : 2,677(: 803, : 1,874) < 표 3> 총사업비내역 (: ) 141,225 7,160 4,505 325 15,322 168,537 30,847 LH 30,000 7,000 3,000 4,000 44,000 24,338 10% 267,722

- : 30% 1), 70% - : < 표 4> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 당초 ) (: ) 1. 12 (94) 1. 1,874 70% 2. 5 40 (200 ) 3. 300-83, 217(1,500) 4. 5 (80) 2. () 803 30% 30% 2,677 100% < 표 5> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 변경 ) (: ) < > 1. 974 36.4% (: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 134 413 186 241 2. () 803 30% 30% 3. 50 1.8% 4. 560 20.9% (1)+(2)+(3) 2/3 5. 290 10.9% (1)+(2)+(3) 1/3 2,677 100% : (2014.4.18) : (: )

제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석및조사의주요쟁점 1. 기초자료분석 2) 2. 보건의료현황분석 2011 90,212( 1,956 ), 37,021, 2012 7 105,580, 43,364. 37,. - 2015 25, 2020 50. 2014 3 129,365( 2,508 ), 2013 11 121,787 ( 2,478 ). -.

3. 충남대학교병원현황 : 1, 1, 1, 1, 7, 24 74,643( 4,717, 5,370 ), 145,983, 1,381. < 표 6> 진료시설현황 (1,231) (1,175) (222) 1,175 () 6 () 10 40 1,071 60 1, 2,,, 10 34 22 21 38 42 13 86 2010 344,286, 750,718 1,095,004, 2013 379,312, 830,611 1,209,923.

. < 표 7> 진료수입현황 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,518 1,563 1,598 1,742 741 806 866 958 2,259 2,369 2,464 2,700 (: ) 4. 예비타당성조사의주요쟁점 가. 기술적검토및비용관련쟁점 4. - (, ). ( 70%, 542),. -. 115.7( 35) ( 30%, 233, 7,802) 나. 수요및편익추정관련쟁점 ( ),.

2012 7,., ( ), /, ( ) (). () 3( 2).. -,., (1,2),,.

제 Ⅲ 장기술적검토및비용추정 1. 사업계획의적절성검토 가. 사업부지의적절성검토 500. < 표 8> 세종충남대학교병원의건립개요 1-4 35,994(10,888) 39,549(11,964) 70,545(21,340) 21.30% : 70% 109.88% : 600% 4 / 10 : 10 () 500 115.7 542 : 233 150 1 775 1-4, 600m. - 70%, 600%, 10, 35,994. - 10, BRT

, BRT. -, BRT. - 600%, 250%. -, 9.45,. < 표 9> 계획병상당부지면적비교 () ( ) 120,541 64,101 35,994 609 649 500 180.11 81.44 71.99 -,,,. 나. 시설규모의적절성검토 500~700,. ( ) 116.11

, ( ) 125.8. < 표 10> 최근국립 / 사립대학병원병상당연면적국내사례 70,470.00 623 113.11 2008 95,700.87 792 120.83 2004 64,667.00 506 127.80 2004 85,459.07 708 120.70 2012 68,477.83 698 98.11 2013 116.11 165,542.0 1,250 132.4 1994 122,813.4 1004 122.3 2005 133,057.3 1,085 122.6 2009 129,968.4 1,033 125.8 2016() 125.80 120.42 :. : 1) (www.g2b.go.kr) 2) 3) () 4) () < 표 11> 계획병상당평균면적비교 () 104,017 76,955 62,842 855 665 500 120.42 116.11 115.7, 116.11 0.41 2 500. 다. 시설구성의적절성검토 -, 28.84%,

12.26%, 17.72%, 19.61%, 6.76%, 9.14%, 5.6%, 22.01%. < 표 12> 부서별면적사례 ( 순면적기준비율 ) 698 620 506 () (%) () (%) () (%) (%) 14,007 28.93 18,787 31.03 13,918 26.57 28.84 6,482 13.39 6,119 10.21 6,917 13.19 12.26 7,508 15.51 10,402 17.36 10,650 20.30 17.72 9,845 20.34 12,312 20.67 9,351 17.83 19.61 3,548 7.33 3,017 5.04 4,156 7.92 6.76 5,918 12.22 4,890 8.16 3,691 7.04 9.14 1,105 2.28 4,391 7.33 3,775 7.20 5.60 48,461 100 59,921 100 52,460 100 100 11,590 23.94 11,288 18.84 12,206 23.27 22.01 60,007 71,209 64,667-26.93%, 14.30%, 17.70%, 17.30%, 3.35%, 14.92%, 5.50%, 22.00% 0.02%~ +5.78%. < 표 13> 세종충남대학교병원부서별면적및구성비 () (%) (%) 13,871 26.93-2.01 500 ( ) 7,366 14.30 2.04 9,117 17.70-0.02 8,911 17.30-2.27 1,726 3.35-3.41 7,686 14.92 5.78 2,833 5.50-0.10 51,511 100.00-11,332 22-0.02 7,702 62,843 70,545 -, 5.78%

,. - 125.98%. 185.41%, 100 1. < 표 14> 사례별주차면적및설치대수 () () (%) 623 92,884 22,414 712 761 106.88 1.22 792 110,036 14,336 1 1,078 1,099 101.95 1.39 506 75,553 10,886 /100 589 835 141.77 1.65 708 105,580 20,121 855 1,311 153.33 1.85 125.98 1.53-1.53, 1.55.. 115.7 500,. < 표 15> 병상당면적검토비교표 81.44 71.99-9.45 120.42 115.7-4.72

2. 비용추정 가. 비용추정의개요,,,,,.. [ 그림 3] 비용추정과정 나. 총사업비추정 1) 공사비 2012 2,313,518.

< 표 16> 유사사례건축공사비평균 () () () (2012)() 2008 92,884.00 623 169,585 1,825,772 2,092,335 2012 105,580.04 708 254,093 2,406,639 2,406,639 2013 92,144.26 698 227,561 2,469,617 2,444,920 2006 52,372 502 96,427 1,841,194 2,463,517 2009 49,563 432 95,000 1,916,752 2,160,180 2,313,518 :. : 1) (www.g2b.go.kr) 2) 70,545 1,632.07.,. < 표 17> 신재생에너지목표량산정 () 3% 62,842 643.52 1.00 1.00 40,440,084kWh/yr 1,213,203kWh/yr,, 1,646.91(VAT). < 표 18> 공사비산출표 (: ) 62,842 145,386.11 2.314 7,703 17,821.03 - - 1,076.12 3% - - 408.02 0.25%() 70,545-164,691.28 149,719.34(VAT) :

2) 용지보상비 LH 1-4. LH 308.46. -,. - 1-4,. < 표 19> LH 공사의용지공급공고가 () () 1 35,994 30,846,860 5% 3) 부대비 = + + -. - 2013. - 1%. 84.75, 56.94, 14.97, 15.67, 172.32.

< 표 20> 부대비총합 (: ) (%) 5.07% 7,584 8% 607 7.5% 1/2 284 8,475 3.80% 5,694 1% 1,497 10% 1,567 17,232 4) 기타투자비 62.20. 500 311.02. < 표 21> 유사사례의단위면적당의료장비투자비 (: ) (2003) 936 47.76 131.33 62.72 (2003) 514 54.89 131.33 72.08 (2009) 792 47.35 109.42 51.81 50.00-62.20 : 1) 2012. 2). :,, 2014. < 표 22> 의료장비투자비비교표 (: ) 500 62.20 31,102 :.

619.7. 500 30 9,851( ). < 표 23> 유사사례의단위면적당집기비품투자비 (: ) () (2013) 698 560.0 0.99 554.4 (2003) 936 477.6 131.33 627.2 (2003) 514 548.9 131.33 720.9 (2004) 300 454.5 126.78 576.3 510.3-619.7 : 1) 2012. 2). : 1),, 2012. 2),, 2014. < 표 24> 집기비품투자비투자비비교표 (: ) 500 619.7 309,851 :. 70.01( ) 73.03. 5. 300, 2012 1,163. 300, 90%, 90%.

< 표 25> 개원전인건비산출표 (: ) (300) 1 31 5,197,550 163,623,305 11 10,302,942 111,271,770 6 4,563,979 27,267,348 45 3,658,309 164,764,018 12 3,260,357 38,957,794 105 26,983,137 505,884,235 6 3,355,143 18,503,259 141 2,597,359 365,862,872 37 2,597,359 96,091,227 19 3,243,710 61,865,141 3 2,612,359 6,603,154 3 2,612,359 6,603,154 1 2,612,359 2,401,147 22 1,994,612 43,541,961 13 2,057,696 26,005,770 14 2,067,696 29,933,193 363 52,733,788 1,163,295,113 342.12, 34.08, 70.01, (1) 11.63 457.84. < 표 26> 기타투자비산정 (: ) (500) 34,212 5 3,408 5 7,001 5 (1) 1,163 300 45,784 5) 예비비,,,, 10%

6) 총사업비종합 2012, 2,844.1. < 표 27> 총사업비산정결과비교표 (: ) A. (A) (B) 145,386 (B-A) 155,348 17,821 7,859 0 1,076 1,076 0 408 408 155,348 164,691 9,344 5,127 7,876 4,195 1,466 B. 4,956 6,263 1,307 358 1,647 1,289 13,189 17,232 4,043 C. 30,847 30,847 0 30,847 30,847 0 33,000 34,212 1,212 0 3,408 3,408 D. 7,700 7,001-699 3,300 1,163-2,137 44,000 45,784 1,784 E. ((A+B+C+D) 10%) 24,338 25,855 1,517 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 267,722 284,410 16,688 다. 운영비산정 1) 인건비 (, ) ( ), (,, ),.

2) 경상운영비 (1,175) 2012. < 표 28> 충남대학교병원경상운영비산정 (: /1,175 ) 2012 359,955 3,356,962 336,522 518,011 1,485,913 638,336 6,695,699 : 1,175. 5,698, 3 300 3 17.1, 500 28.49. 라. 연차별배분계획 < 표 29> 총사업비의연차별배분계획 (:, ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 32,938 65,877 65,877 164,691 6,525 2,797 9,322 1,253 2,505 2,505 6,263 1,647 1,647 30,847 30,847 10,264 23,949 34,212 3,408 3,408 2,100 4,900 7,001 1,163 1,163 3,902 3,699 8,075 10,180 25,855 42,921 40,686 88,820 111,983 284,410

제 Ⅳ 장수요추정 1. 세종시인구규모추정의전제, 2012 7 1. 3) - 2011 90,212( 1,956 ), 37,021, 2012 7 105,580, 43,364. [ 그림 4] 세종특별자치시의구역 ( 범위 ) - 4,808,

< 표 30> 역외출퇴근세종청사공무원의세종시인구산입 KTX 4,808 2,197 935 87 35.7% 64.3% 35.7% 64.3% (: ) 1,716.5 1,412.7 333.8 55.9 3,518.9 < 표 31> 이전예정정부출연연구기관종사자의세종시인구산입 1,091 499 35.7% 64.3% 389.5 320.9 710.4 (: ) -, 23,437 52 32 ~ 4, 8,242 4) - 1: 19 2018 2047-2: 2018 2047, : 2010-2040(2012.6.27) 2031~2035 0.27%, 2036 2047 0.05% 주 일 명주일

- 3: 2018 2047, : 2010-2035(2012.8) 2025~2034 0.53%, 2035 0.18% < 표 32> 세종시의인구 5) 및세대수추계 (2018~2047 년 ) ( 1) ( 2) ( 3) 1) (1) (:, ) 2018 190,962 190,962 190,962 234,575 71,249 71,249 2019 201,666 201,666 201,666 265,278 75,464 75,464 2020 212,370 212,370 212,370 300,000 79,678 79,678 2021 223,074 223,074 223,074 315,723 83,893 83,893 2022 233,778 233,778 233,778 332,270 88,107 88,107 2023 244,482 244,482 244,482 349,684 92,322 92,322 2024 255,186 255,186 255,186 368,011 96,536 96,536 2025 265,890 265,890 265,890 387,298 100,751 100,751 2026 276,594 276,594 267,300 407,597 104,965 102,201 2027 287,298 287,298 268,716 428,959 109,179 103,673 2028 298,002 298,002 270,141 451,440 113,394 105,166 2029 308,706 308,706 271,572 475,100 117,608 106,680 2030 319,410 319,410 273,012 500,000 121,823 108,216 2031 330,114 324,220 274,459 501,350 126,037 109,775 2032 340,818 325,085 275,913 502,704 130,252 111,356 2033 351,522 325,952 277,376 504,061 134,466 112,959 2034 362,226 326,821 278,846 505,422 138,681 114,586 2035 372,930 327,693 280,324 506,787 142,895 116,236 2036 383,634 327,857 280,828 507,040 147,110 117,328 2037 394,338 328,021 281,334 507,293 151,324 118,431 2038 405,042 328,185 281,840 507,547 155,539 119,544 2039 415,746 328,349 282,347 507,801 159,753 120,668 2040 426,450 328,513 282,856 508,055 163,968 121,802 2041 437,154 328,677 283,365 508,309 168,182 122,947 2042 447,858 328,841 283,875 508,563 172,397 124,103 2043 458,562 329,006 284,386 508,817 176,611 125,270 2044 469,266 329,170 284,898 509,072 180,826 126,447 2045 479,970 329,335 285,410 509,326 185,040 127,636 2046 490,674 329,500 285,924 509,581 189,255 128,836 2047 501,378 329,664 286,439 509,836 193,469 130,047 : 1),, 2013.2. (2)

2. 진료권설정 < 표 33> 세종시인근의종합병원급이상의의료기관현황 from (km) () 1,175 41.0 / 33.2 56 / 59 865 28.4 / 24.4 39 / 49 840 35.9 / 32.8 38 / 51 681 39.5 / 33.2 52 / 57 530 38.5 / 33.2 47 / 50 183 24.3 / 17.9 27 / 30 420 26.3 42 377 34.4 40 736 45.3 / 51.0 55 / 56 802 47.2 / 49.4 45 / 57 254 44.7 53 120 40.0 43 317 18.1 / 16.9 31 / 33 695 47.9 / 56.9 60 / 50 412 73 68 205 66.2 55 220 82.5 100 210 96.9 74 299 98.3 75 205 102.0 82 612 26.0 / 28.9 48 / 49 :, (www.naver.com).,,,. : ( ), 2014.1.,.

-,,, 2018 2047, ( ) < 표 34> 세종충남대학교병원의부진료권지역의입원실인원규모 ( 추정 ) () () (: ) 2018 607,802 121,550 294,539 1,619,231 92 1,431 62 3,302 2019 611,874 122,364 296,513 1,628,460 93 1,441 62 3,321 2020 615,974 123,184 298,499 1,637,742 93 1,451 63 3,340 2021 619,485 123,886 300,201 1,645,440 94 1,459 63 3,355 2022 623,016 124,593 301,912 1,653,173 94 1,467 63 3,371 2023 626,567 125,303 303,633 1,660,943 95 1,476 64 3,387 2024 630,139 126,017 305,363 1,668,750 95 1,484 64 3,403 2025 633,731 126,735 307,104 1,676,593 96 1,493 64 3,419 2026 636,582 127,306 308,486 1,682,629 96 1,499 65 3,431 2027 639,447 127,878 309,874 1,688,686 97 1,506 65 3,444 2028 642,324 128,454 311,269 1,694,765 97 1,513 65 3,456 2029 645,215 129,032 312,669 1,700,866 98 1,520 65 3,468 2030 648,118 129,613 314,076 1,706,990 98 1,526 66 3,481 2031 649,868 129,963 314,924 1,710,233 98 1,531 66 3,488 2032 651,623 130,313 315,775 1,713,482 99 1,535 66 3,494 2033 653,382 130,665 316,627 1,716,738 99 1,539 66 3,501 2034 655,146 131,018 317,482 1,720,000 99 1,543 66 3,507 2035 656,915 131,372 318,339 1,723,268 100 1,547 67 3,514 2036 657,244 131,438 318,498 1,722,751 100 1,548 67 3,513 2037 657,572 131,503 318,658 1,722,234 100 1,549 67 3,512 2038 657,901 131,569 318,817 1,721,717 100 1,549 67 3,511 2039 658,230 131,635 318,976 1,721,201 100 1,550 67 3,510 2040 658,559 131,701 319,136 1,720,684 100 1,551 67 3,509 2041 658,625 131,714 319,168 1,720,168 100 1,551 67 3,508 2042 658,691 131,727 319,200 1,719,652 100 1,551 67 3,507 2043 658,757 131,740 319,232 1,719,136 100 1,551 67 3,506 2044 658,823 131,753 319,264 1,718,620 100 1,552 67 3,505 2045 658,889 131,766 319,295 1,718,105 100 1,552 67 3,504 2046 658,954 131,780 319,327 1,717,589 100 1,552 67 3,503 2047 659,020 131,793 319,359 1,717,074 100 1,552 67 3,501

3. 병상수요추정 (1), (2) (1). - (RI) (CI). -,,. 인구명 입원의료이용률일 입원환자비중 요구되는병상수 병상이용률 일, 2009 2012 4,,, - 2.39 -, 90% 50, 33, 29

1,728, 1,148, 1,003 ( ). < 표 35> 세종충남대학교병원소요병상수추정결과 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 2018 280 280 280 645 645 645 36 315 315 315 680 680 680 2019 295 295 295 681 681 681 36 331 331 331 717 717 717 2020 311 311 311 717 717 717 36 347 347 347 753 753 753 2021 327 327 327 754 754 754 36 362 362 362 789 789 789 2022 343 343 343 790 790 790 36 378 378 378 825 825 825 2023 358 358 358 826 826 826 37 394 394 394 861 861 861 2024 374 374 374 862 862 862 37 409 409 409 897 897 897 2025 390 390 390 898 898 898 37 425 425 425 934 934 934 2026 405 405 392 934 934 903 37 441 441 427 970 970 938 2027 421 421 394 970 970 908 37 456 456 429 1,006 1,006 943 2028 437 437 396 1,007 1,007 913 37 472 472 431 1,042 1,042 948 2029 452 452 398 1,043 1,043 917 37 488 488 433 1,078 1,078 953 2030 468 468 400 1,079 1,079 922 38 503 503 435 1,114 1,114 958 2031 484 475 402 1,115 1,095 927 38 519 510 438 1,150 1,131 962 2032 499 476 404 1,151 1,098 932 38 535 512 440 1,187 1,133 967 2033 515 478 406 1,187 1,101 937 38 550 513 442 1,223 1,136 972 2034 531 479 409 1,224 1,104 942 38 566 514 444 1,259 1,139 977 2035 546 480 411 1,260 1,107 947 38 582 516 446 1,295 1,142 982 2036 562 480 411 1,296 1,108 949 38 597 516 447 1,331 1,143 984 2037 578 481 412 1,332 1,108 950 38 613 516 448 1,367 1,143 986 2038 594 481 413 1,368 1,109 952 38 629 516 448 1,404 1,144 987 2039 609 481 414 1,404 1,109 954 38 645 516 449 1,440 1,145 989 2040 625 481 414 1,441 1,110 955 38 660 517 450 1,476 1,145 991 2041 641 482 415 1,477 1,110 957 38 676 517 451 1,512 1,146 993 2042 656 482 416 1,513 1,111 959 38 692 517 451 1,548 1,146 994 2043 672 482 417 1,549 1,111 961 38 707 517 452 1,584 1,147 996 2044 688 482 417 1,585 1,112 962 38 723 518 453 1,621 1,147 998 2045 703 483 418 1,621 1,112 964 38 739 518 454 1,657 1,148 999 2046 719 483 419 1,658 1,113 966 38 754 518 454 1,693 1,148 1,001 2047 735 483 420 1,694 1,114 968 38 770 518 455 1,729 1,149 1,003 4. 입원및외래환자수요추정 연간입원환자수 병상수 병상이용률 일

연외래환자수 연입원환자수추정치 입원대비외래환자비중 2018 98,550, 2021 164,250 2018 217,028 2021 361,713 < 표 36> 연간입원및외래환자수추정결과 (2018~2047 년 ) (:, ) 2018 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2019 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2020 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2021 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2022 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2023 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2024 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2025 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2026 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2027 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2028 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2029 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2030 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2031 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2032 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2033 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2034 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2035 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2036 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2037 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2038 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2039 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2040 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2041 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2042 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2043 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2044 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2045 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2046 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2047 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713

제 Ⅴ 장편익추정 1. 편익추정의개요 -,,,,. 6) -.. 2. 편익산정 가. 응급사망자감소편익 = =

() 10 188.2, 30 - ( 18km. 45~48km), ( 317 ),. 3 2018 359 2047 539~943, 243 263. 2012, 2012 191. 7), 20. - 191 8) (40), (24), (20) 9) 84( 58 ). - ( 1) 23 10) 27.38% 11), 3

6.65%(=27.38% 0.2429). - ( 2) (20 ) 23 104 22.12%, 5.37%(=20.41% 0.2429). (KDI, 2012.11),, (PGS: Pain, Grief and Suffering). - 1 PGS 2009 1 1,607, 3,370-1 PGS PGS PGS 8,237., 2012 1 PGS 9,011.3(8,237 1.094=9,011.3). - PGS, 1 2 4,317.3. 1. - PGS. 응급사망감소편익 = 예방가능사망자수 응급사망비용, 2018 78 7 97 4, 2047 104 8 195 2.

< 표 37> 응급사망자감소에따른편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) (1) (2) (6.65% ) (5.37% ) 1 2 3 1 2 3 2018 9,742.1 9,742.1 9,742.1 7,868.7 7,868.7 7,868.7 2019 10,094.3 10,094.3 10,094.3 8,153.1 8,153.1 8,153.1 2020 10,446.6 10,446.6 10,446.6 8,437.6 8,437.6 8,437.6 2021 10,795.1 10,795.1 10,795.1 8,719.1 8,719.1 8,719.1 2022 11,143.7 11,143.7 11,143.7 9,000.7 9,000.7 9,000.7 2023 11,492.5 11,492.5 11,492.5 9,282.4 9,282.4 9,282.4 2024 11,841.4 11,841.4 11,841.4 9,564.2 9,564.2 9,564.2 2025 12,190.4 12,190.4 12,190.4 9,846.1 9,846.1 9,846.1 2026 12,534.7 12,534.7 12,251.7 10,124.1 10,124.1 9,895.6 2027 12,879.0 12,879.0 12,313.4 10,402.3 10,402.3 9,945.4 2028 13,223.4 13,223.4 12,375.3 10,680.4 10,680.4 9,995.5 2029 13,567.9 13,567.9 12,437.6 10,958.7 10,958.7 10,045.8 2030 13,912.5 13,912.5 12,500.2 11,237.0 11,237.0 10,096.3 2031 14,249.6 14,070.2 12,555.5 11,509.3 11,364.4 10,141.0 2032 14,586.7 14,107.8 12,611.2 11,781.6 11,394.8 10,185.9 2033 14,923.9 14,145.6 12,667.1 12,053.9 11,425.3 10,231.1 2034 15,261.1 14,183.5 12,723.2 12,326.3 11,455.9 10,276.4 2035 15,598.4 14,221.4 12,779.6 12,598.7 11,486.5 10,322.0 2036 15,926.3 14,228.5 12,797.1 12,863.5 11,492.3 10,336.1 2037 16,254.2 14,235.7 12,814.6 13,128.4 11,498.0 10,350.3 2038 16,582.1 14,242.8 12,832.2 13,393.3 11,503.8 10,364.4 2039 16,910.1 14,249.9 12,849.7 13,658.1 11,509.5 10,378.6 2040 17,238.0 14,257.0 12,867.3 13,923.0 11,515.3 10,392.8 2041 17,564.2 14,262.4 12,883.2 14,186.5 11,519.7 10,405.7 2042 17,890.5 14,267.9 12,899.2 14,450.0 11,524.1 10,418.6 2043 18,216.7 14,273.3 12,915.2 14,713.5 11,528.4 10,431.5 2044 18,542.9 14,278.7 12,931.2 14,977.0 11,532.8 10,444.4 2045 18,869.2 14,284.2 12,947.2 15,240.5 11,537.2 10,457.4 2046 19,195.4 14,289.6 12,963.3 15,504.0 11,541.6 10,470.3 2047 19,521.2 14,294.6 12,978.9 15,767.1 11,545.7 10,483.0 나. 교통비절감편익 교통비절감편익 기존이용의료시설소재지 교통수단 전환환자수 동반자비중 평균교통비

지역별인구규모 연평균입원횟수 상급종합병원이용비중 예상시장점유율 왕복거리 당차량운행비용 자가용이용비율 - - (0.196/) - ( 2020) / (2011, 2012 57.0%), /(2021 ) (2011, 2012 41.4%) - (55.25%) 자가용이용편익 입원연인원 왕복거리차이 차량운행비용 자가용이용비율버스이용편익 입원연인원 버스이용비율 교통비차액 - 1 1. 자가용이용편익 입원연인원 왕복거리차이 차량운행비용 자가용이용비율버스이용편익 입원연인원 버스이용비율 교통비차액 - 2011 2012, 13.87.,,

. 다. 이동시간비용절감편익 시간절감편익 전환환자수 동반자비중 왕복시간 시간가치 기존이용의료시설소재지 - (KDI, 2012) 7,237(2010 ) 7,692.9(=7,237 1.063), 2.2% 7,862, - 입원환자 동반자의이동시간절감편익 전환입원실인원 동반자비율 자가용이동시간차이 시간가치 - 자가용이용 전환입원연인원 자가용이동시간차이 시간가치 자가용비율 버스이용 전환입원연인원 버스이동시간차이 시간가치 버스비율 - 자가용이용시 외래전환연환자 동반자 이동시간차이 시간가치 이용비율버스이용시 외래전환연환자 동반자 이동시간차이 시간가치 이용비율

3. 편익추정결과, (, ), < 표 38> 세종충남대학교병원건립의편익산정결과 (: ) 1 2 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 2018 15,067.2 15,067.2 15,067.2 13,193.7 13,193.7 13,193.7 2019 15,717.8 15,717.8 15,717.8 13,776.6 13,776.6 13,776.6 2020 16,368.6 16,368.6 16,368.6 14,359.6 14,359.6 14,359.6 2021 22,684.9 22,684.9 22,684.9 20,608.9 20,608.9 20,608.9 2022 23,604.0 23,604.0 23,604.0 21,461.0 21,461.0 21,461.0 2023 24,523.3 24,523.3 24,523.3 22,313.2 22,313.2 22,313.2 2024 25,442.7 25,442.7 25,442.7 23,165.5 23,165.5 23,165.5 2025 26,362.3 26,362.3 26,362.3 24,017.9 24,017.9 24,017.9 2026 27,277.0 27,277.0 26,498.7 24,866.5 24,866.5 24,142.6 2027 28,191.9 28,191.9 26,635.9 25,715.1 25,715.1 24,267.9 2028 29,106.8 29,106.8 26,773.7 26,563.8 26,563.8 24,393.8 2029 30,021.8 30,021.8 26,912.3 27,412.6 27,412.6 24,520.4 2030 30,936.9 30,936.9 27,051.6 28,261.4 28,261.4 24,647.7 2031 31,844.5 31,350.9 27,184.1 29,104.2 28,645.1 24,769.5 2032 32,752.2 31,434.7 27,317.2 29,947.1 28,721.6 24,892.0 2033 33,659.9 31,518.7 27,451.0 30,789.9 28,798.4 25,015.1 2034 34,567.6 31,602.9 27,585.6 31,632.8 28,875.3 25,138.8 2035 35,475.4 31,687.3 27,720.7 32,475.7 28,952.4 25,263.1 2036 36,373.8 31,703.2 27,765.1 33,311.1 28,966.9 25,304.1 2037 37,272.3 31,719.0 27,809.6 34,146.5 28,981.4 25,345.2 2038 38,170.7 31,734.9 27,854.1 34,981.9 28,995.9 25,386.4 2039 39,069.2 31,750.7 27,898.7 35,817.2 29,010.4 25,427.6 2040 39,967.6 31,766.6 27,943.4 36,652.6 29,024.9 25,468.9 2041 40,864.4 31,780.8 27,986.5 37,486.6 29,038.0 25,508.9 2042 41,761.1 31,795.0 28,029.6 38,320.7 29,051.2 25,549.0 2043 42,657.9 31,809.2 28,072.8 39,154.7 29,064.3 25,589.1 2044 43,554.6 31,823.4 28,116.1 39,988.7 29,077.5 25,629.3 2045 44,451.4 31,837.6 28,159.5 40,822.7 29,090.6 25,669.6 2046 45,348.1 31,851.8 28,202.9 41,656.7 29,103.8 25,710.0 2047 46,244.4 31,865.6 28,246.0 42,490.4 29,116.6 25,750.1 : 1) (1) (2) (23) 6.65% (1), 5.37%(2). 2) s1, s2, s3 2047 ( 1), 2018 2047, 2012, 2030 generous ( 2), ( 3).

제 Ⅵ 장경제성분석 1. 분석의개요 : 2018~2047 : 2012 : 30 5.5% 2. 경제성분석, 1 2 B/C 0.94. < 표 39> 경제성분석결과 (: ) 1 (1) 2 (2) B/C NPV S1 979,340 522,566 319,283 311,905 1.02 7,378 S2 854,337 522,566 293,386 311,905 0.94-18,519 S3 776,986 522,566 272,409 311,905 0.87-39,495 S1 894,495 522,566 290,613 311,905 0.93-21,291 S2 778,230 522,566 266,527 311,905 0.85-45,378 S3 706,286 522,566 247,017 311,905 0.79-64,888 : 1) (1) (2) (23) 6.54% (1), 5.37%(2). 2) s1, s2, s3 2047 ( 1), 2018 2047, 2012, 2030 generous ( 2), ( 3).

< 표 40> 최적대안 ( 응급 1 안, 시나리오 2) 의경제성분석흐름표 (: ) 2014 5,932 1,497 30,847 3,828 42,104 37,828 2015 29,944 2,542 1,139 3,362 36,987 31,499 2016 59,888 2,277 9,331 1,909 7,341 80,746 65,179 2017 59,888 2,277 21,771 1,859 4,455 1,058 9,275 100,583 76,960 1 2018 1,710 1,710 1,240 15,067 10,927 2 2019 1,710 1,710 1,176 15,718 10,805 3 2020 1,710 1,710 1,114 16,369 10,666 4 2021 2,849 2,849 1,760 22,685 14,011 5 2022 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 25,416 23,604 13,819 6 2023 2,849 2,849 1,581 24,523 13,608 7 2024 2,849 2,849 1,499 25,443 13,382 8 2025 2,849 2,849 1,420 26,362 13,143 9 2026 2,849 2,849 1,346 27,277 12,890 10 2027 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 19,447 28,192 12,628 11 2028 2,849 2,849 1,210 29,107 12,358 12 2029 2,849 2,849 1,147 30,022 12,082 13 2030 2,849 2,849 1,087 30,937 11,801 14 2031 2,849 2,849 1,030 31,351 11,336 15 2032 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 14,879 31,435 10,774 16 2033 2,849 2,849 926 31,519 10,239 17 2034 2,849 2,849 877 31,603 9,731 18 2035 2,849 2,849 832 31,687 9,249 19 2036 2,849 2,849 788 31,703 8,771 20 2037 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 11,385 31,719 8,318 21 2038 2,849 2,849 708 31,735 7,888 22 2039 2,849 2,849 671 31,751 7,481 23 2040 2,849 2,849 636 31,767 7,094 24 2041 2,849 2,849 603 31,781 6,727 25 2042 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 8,711 31,795 6,379 26 2043 2,849 2,849 542 31,809 6,050 27 2044 2,849 2,849 514 31,823 5,737 28 2045 2,849 2,849 487 31,838 5,440 29 2046 2,849 2,849 461 31,852 5,159 30 2047-30,847 6,220 620 1,273 2,849-19,885-3,053 31,866 4,892 149,719 8,475 5,694 1,497 0 192,832 17,974 39,458 1,058 23,806 82,053 522,566 311,905 854,337 293,386

제 Ⅶ 장정책적분석 1. 정책의일관성및추진의지 가. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성 8(), 18( ). (, 2012.4) () 30%. 4 (2011~2020)(, 2011) (2005~2030)(, 2006), (, 2010)....,.

나. 사업추진의지및선호도.,., MOU.. 다. 사업의준비정도 2012 12,,, (MOU), 2014 6,, KAIST (MOU) - KAIST,

,.,.. 2. 사업추진상의위험요인 가. 재원조달가능성 (2013~2017),,. 2014, 9,162 (1.8%) 50 5,457. (8 4,555). -, 2014 4 8,815..,. - 13.46~99.5.,, 2010 2012

251~385. 251 385. -,. < 표 41> 충남대학교병원중기재정수지총괄 (2014~2017 년 ) (: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 A) 373,037,394 379,418,827 368,480,021 385,800,383 1,506,736,625 B) 331,643,540 336,756,932 347,252,333 361,356,024 1,377,008,829 C) (A-B) 41,393,854 42,661,895 21,227,688 24,444,359 129,727,796 D) 13,386,000 41,333,000 18,592,000 24,100,000 97,411,000 E) (C-D) 28,007,854 1,328,895 2,635,688 344,359 32,316,796 43,000,000 47,000,000 90,000,000 : (2014.4.18) 290( ) 10.9%.,,.. < 표 42> 공공자금관리기금지원사례 () 2013 2014 287 2014: 260 2007 2008 60 2007 2008 100 2007 104, 2008 208 312 2008 33

,,,. 나. 환경성. -,. -,...,.

제 Ⅷ 장지역균형발전분석 1. 지역낙후도 16 10, 170 62. -, 3 (11), 1 (11), (14 ), (10). - (124) 100, (29). < 표 43> 시 별지역낙후도산정결과 1.015 64.770 34.313 9.833 26.699 0.776 0.114 4.085 3 14 10 3 9 11 11 9-0.187 10-1.083 103.835 35.379 12.535 26.744 0.732 0.079 5.099 0.164 62 124 82 52 29 51 84 100 53 2. 지역경제파급효과,,,.

< 표 44> 지역경제파급효과 () (%) () (%) () (%) () (%) 2,081.81 59.71 895.86 65.36 1,854.97 75.75 1,925.69 70.55 3,486.33 100.00 1,370.56 100.00 2,448.85 100.00 2,729.51 100.00-0.1006% 2008~2010 0.3431%. < 표 45> 지역경제활성화효과 (: ) 1,653.85 895.86 (GRDP, 2012 ) 890,918.47 (%) 0.1006% : 1) 2012. 2) AHP GRDP. 3) 2008~2010 135 0.3431%.

제 Ⅸ 장종합평가및정책제언 1. AHP 를활용한종합판단 AHP 1-4, 35,994, 70,545 2014~2017(4) 500. 2 2018 2047, : 2010~2040 (, 2012). AHP : 2,844.1( ) B/C: 0.94 NPV: -185.19 AHP AHP, 0.537 0.463. < 표 46> AHP 평가결과 1 2 3 4 5 6

2. 종합평가및정책제언, 1, 2,. 1-4, 35,994(10,888), 70,545(21,340) 500 2014~2017. 2012 2,844.1 166.88.,,, 30 2,933.86( 2). -(B/C) 0.94. -,. -,,. -, (). -,,,

. -,. 16 10, 170 62. 0.1006% 2008~2010 135 0.3431%. < 표 47> 예비타당성조사분석결과요약표 (2012.12) 1) 1-4 : 500( : 115.7) - : 35,994(10,888) - : 70,545(21,340) - : 775( 542, 233) 2014~2017(4) (: ) / (: ) / 30% 2), 70% 3)4) 155,348 164,691 30,847 30,847 13,189 17,232 44,000 45,784 24,338 25,855 267,722 284,410 B/C - 0.94 AHP - 0.537 : 1). 2) (, -2303 2012.04.18.) () 30%. 3),. 4).

AHP, 0.537. ( ).. -,.. -..

세종충남대학교병원건립사업 예비타당성조사 제Ⅰ장예비타당성조사의개요제Ⅱ장기초자료분석및사업의주요쟁점제Ⅲ장기술적분석및비용추정제Ⅳ장수요추정제Ⅴ장편익추정제Ⅵ장경제성분석제Ⅶ장정책적분석제Ⅷ장지역균형발전분석제Ⅸ장종합평가및정책제언

제 Ⅰ 장예비타당성조사의개요 제 1 절사업의배경및목적 1. 사업의추진배경및목적 2012 7 1 ( ) 12). 36 (16, 20 ) 16 2012 2014 3. (,, ),..,.. 751 0(0),

1(91), 48(204), (456). 1, 2.,.. 20.,. 6 (,,,,, ) (). ( 1, 7, 6),,.,.,. ----.,., 1, 2..,., 3

,..,. 2. 사업의기대효과., 1, 2,,,,,,.,.,,.,, -,,.

제 2 절사업의추진경위및주요내용 1. 사업의추진근거,. 8 18 (), (),, (). 5. <> 5() (. "" ) ( "" ). (). 8(). 1. () 2. () 3. 4. 5. 6. 18( ) ().. ().,. 1 3..

2. 사업의추진경위 2013 11 KDI. < -1>. < 표 Ⅰ-1> 사업의추진경위 18 1 2012. 7. 23, 2 2(, ) 2012. 9. 4 TF (11) 2012. 10. 12 2012. 10. 19 2 2 2012. 12. 24 2012. 12. 26,,, 2013. 1. 16 2013. 1. 29 2013. 1. 30 2013. 2. 27 2013. 3. 18 (, ) 2013. 11. 19 2013 KDI 2014.1.1~ KDI 2014.9.30

3. 사업의개요 1-4, 35,994(10,888), 70,545(21,340). 2,677 30%(803), 70%( 1,874).. : 1-4 [ 그림 Ⅰ-1] 사업위치도 : 2014~2017(4) : 500( : 115.7) - : 35,994(10,888) - : 70,545(21,340) - : 775( 542, 233)

[ 그림 Ⅰ-2] 조감도 < 표 Ⅰ-2> 병원기능별면적구성 () (%) 1. 13,871 26.93 500 ( ) 2. 7,366 14.30,,, 3. 9,117 17.70 4. 8,911 17.30 5. 1,726 3.35 6. 7,686 14.92 (4,992), 7. 2,833 5.50 51,511 100.00 8. 11,332 9. 7,702 62,843 70,545 : 939( 902, 37)

: 2,677(: 803, : 1,874) < 표 Ⅰ-3> 총사업비내역 (: ) 141,225 7,160 4,505 325 15,322 168,537 30,847 LH 30,000 7,000 3,000 4,000 44,000 24,338 10% 267,722 - : 30%, 70% - : < 표 Ⅰ-4> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 당초 ) (: ) 1. 12 (94) 1,874 70% 2. 5 40 (200 ) 3. 300-83, 217(1,500) 4. 5 (80) () 803 30% 30% 2,677 100%

< 표 Ⅰ-5> 연도별자금확보계획 ( 변경 ) (: ) < > 1. 974 36.4% (: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 134 413 186 241 2. () 803 30% 30% 3. 50 1.8% 4. 560 20.9% (1)+(2)+(3) 2/3 5. 290 10.9% (1)+(2)+(3) 1/3 2,677 100% : (2014.4.18) : (: )

제 3 절예비타당성조사의주요내용 1. 예비타당성조사의절차 [ -3],,,,. [ 그림 Ⅰ-3] 예비타당성조사수행흐름도 :, (,, ) () ( ) : (AHP )

2. 예비타당성조사의주요내용 가. 기초자료분석및조사의쟁점도출,,. Do-Nothing (brainstorming),,,.. 나. 사업계획의적절성검토.,.. 다. 경제성분석 -(cost-benefit analysis).. (5)(2008.12)( ) (2)(2012.11)( )

.,. 1) 편익추정.,, (2)(2012.11). 2) 비용추정,. 3) 경제적타당성평가 - (B/C), (NPV), (IRR).. (5)(2008.12) 30, 30 5.5%. 라. 정책적분석.,,.,,,..

마. 지역균형발전분석. 2009 170.,,. 바. 종합평가및정책제언,,.,. (Analytic Hierarchy Process: AHP). AHP..

제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석및조사의주요쟁점 제 1 절기초자료분석 1. 사업지역의경제 사회지표 가. 위치및행정구역,,,,. 2013 1 9 2 464.8, 73.1, 391.7. 62.9% 100m,., 10 13.1 35,1, -15.7. 10 1,471.7mm, 2011 1,943.4mm, 6 ~ 8 72.0%, 65.2%, 1.9.

[ 그림 Ⅱ-1] 세종시위치 : (http://www.sejong.go.kr) 나. 인구현황 2006 84,107 2011 84,710 0.14% 2012. < 표 Ⅱ-1> 세종시인구및세대수 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ('06-'11) (:, ) 2012 84,107 81,450 80,118 81,068 83,504 84,710 0.14% 113,117 33,388 32,652 32,128 32,564 34,339 34,944 0.91% 46,592 : 1), 2012, 2013 2), 2030, 2014 다. 종사자수 2005 27,610 2010 27,399

59.2%, 41.7%, 0.15%, 2005 5,212 2010 4,943 1.05%. < 표 Ⅱ-2> 세종시종사자수 (: ) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ('05-'10) 27,610 26,765 26,311 25,991 26,306 27,399-0.15% 5,212 5,081 4,933 4,953 4,931 4,943-1.05% :, 2012, 2013 라. 자동차보유대수 2006 29,668 2011 34,222 2.90%, 2006 19,641 2011 24,293 4.34%. < 표 Ⅱ-3> 세종시자동차보유대수 (: ) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ('06-'11) 29,668 29,853 29,999 31,387 32,637 34,222 2.90% 19,641 19,919 20,263 21,678 22,845 24,293 4.34% 8,005 7,862 7,728 7,704 7,828 7,909-0.24% 76 72 71 81 82 91 3.67% 1,946 2,000 1,937 1,924 1,882 1,929 0.18% :, 2012, 2013 2. 교통현황분석 가. 도로시설현황 81.9%, 1.57%, 5.44%.

< 표 Ⅱ-4> 세종시도로연장및포장현황 (: m, %) 2009 292,090 77.0 8,800 100.0 51,850 97.7 133,200 82.2 2010 292,290 78.2 8,800 100.0 51,850 97.7 133,400 79.8 2011 286,300 81.9 8,800 100.0 48,900 100.0 133,400 79.8 0.14 1.57 8,800-0.31-0.01-0.08 :, 2030, 2014 나. 도로망현황,,, 23, 1, 36, 96, 508, 512. < 표 Ⅱ-5> 주변지역도로망현황 (km) IC - JC 4.7 6 JC - JC 3.8 10 JC - IC 3.5 8 IC - IC 11.1 8 IC - IC 12.6 4 IC - JC 6.1 4 JC - IC 1.4 4 IC - IC 16.3 4 IC - JC 14.0 4 23-11.6 4-4.0 4-5.8 4 1-8.6 4-7.5 4 36-4.0 4-4.8 4 96-8.8 4-591 6.7 4-8.1 2 508-7.7 2-4.6 4-3.6 4 512-6.4 2 36-3.1 2

제 2 절보건의료현황분석 1. 세종시인구및환경분석 가. 인구특성 2011 90,212( 1,956 ), 37,021, 2012 7 105,580, 43,364. 2012 7 2014 3 < -6>. < 표 Ⅱ-6> 세종시출범이후월별인구현황 (2012 년 7 월부터 2014 년 3 월까지 ) (:, ) 2012 7 105,580 103,127 52,624 50,503 2,453 43,364 2012 8 108,920 106,625 54,338 52,287 2,295 44,460 2012 9 110,377 108,027 55,022 53,005 2,350 44,934 2012 10 112,141 109,823 55,913 53,910 2,318 45,493 2012 11 113,481 111,191 56,596 54,595 2,290 45,914 2012 12 115,388 113,117 57,633 55,484 2,271 46,592 2013 1 116,168 113,911 58,074 55,837 2,257 46,592 2013 2 117,594 115,269 58,788 56,481 2,325 47,246 2013 3 118,345 115,955 59,136 56,819 2,390 47,492 2013 4 118,740 116,345 59,322 57,023 2,395 47,671 2013 5 119,270 116,842 59,592 57,250 2,428 47,902 2013 6 119,451 117,012 59,661 57,351 2,439 47,994 2013 7 119,822 117,369 59,837 57,532 2,453 48,142 2013 8 120,375 117,939 60,134 57,805 2,436 48,319 2013 9 120,765 118,273 60,315 57,958 2,492 48,419 2013 10 121,247 118,745 60,573 58,172 2,502 48,624 2013 11 121,787 119,309 60,841 58,468 2,478 48,860 2013 12 124,615 122,153 62,205 59,948 2,462 50,045 2014 1 126,260 123,802 63,011 60,791 2,458 50,676 2014 2 128,395 125,944 64,021 61,923 2,451 51,502 2014 3 129,365 126,857 64,507 62,350 2,508 51,915 1.021% 1.041% 1.023% 1.059% 0.111% 0.904% : (http://www.sejong.go.kr)

, 37 2017. 37,,., 148, 148 114 16 18 (, ( ), ( ), ( ), 119( ), ( ) ). 13) < 표 Ⅱ-7> 세종시이전중앙행정기관및소속기관 (19 ) (18 ),,,, 1: 2012,,,, (15 ),,,,, (9 ) (6 ), 2: 2013 (16 ) 3: 2014 (6 ) : (2013.6),,,,,,,,,,,, (6 ), (10 ),,, (4 ), (2 )

2015, 18,000.., 2015 25, 2020 50. < -6>, 2014 3 129,365( 2,508 ), 2013 11 121,787( 2,478 ). 2 5,600, 15,000( 2.67 ), 2013 11 4 7,578.,. 나. 교통환경, 2012 9 1 ~~ 30.7km (BRT). 10, 20.. BRT () ()~~~ (), ~~.,, (), 2015 3 4 6 (BRT ).

2017 1(~ ), 36(, ~~ ), 96(~~~ ) 4 6, (, ~ ~ ). ~ ( 4) ~ ( 36) 6. ~ ( 36) 4. ( ) ( ),,.,,,,,,, 8, ( ~~ ) (,,, ). 1. ~~~~. 다. 기반시설 12.7,. 1 6. 10,,,. (). 라. 지역개발의방향 ( 7, 29) ( 13, 4),

. 2030 3, < -8>. < 표 Ⅱ-8> 세종시단계별개발계획 1(20072015) 2(20162020) 3(20212030) 15 30 50 2. 보건의료환경분석 가. 도시기반시설중의료인프라의취약성. 751 0(0), 1(91), 48(204), (456). 2012 7 1, 2. 나. 응급의료기능의미비. 20. MOU

30,. 다. 공공보건의료체계의미비 6 (,,,,, ) (). ( 1, 7, 6),,. 라. 임상연구를위한첨단병원의부재,. ----..., 3,, 18.. 마. 지자체의의지 ( ),,,.

MOU,.

제 3 절충남대학교병원현황 14) 1. 설립목적및연혁 가. 설립목적,.,. [ 그림 Ⅱ-2] 국립대학교병원의기능과역할 의료기관으로서양질의의료서비스제공 국가기관으로서국가차원취약계층에대한진료지원 국립대학교병원 교육연구기관으로 권역거점기관으로서권역차원공공보건의료네트워크구성및사업수행 나. 연혁. 14) (, 2013.2).

[ 그림 Ⅱ-3] 충남대학교병원의연혁 1967-1979 : 1967. 11. 30 1971. 12. 31 1972. 7. 1 1980-1994 : 1984. 10. 15 ( 640 ) 1988. 3. 1 1989. 9. 28 1993. 7. 26 1995 - : 1995. 8. 21 1998. 8. 21 2001. 5. 17 2005. 2. 19 2006. 9. 7, One-stop 2007. 6. 14 2007. 9. 4 2008. 4. 10 2008. 5. 14 2008. 11. 28 2009. 7. 21 2010. 4. 1 / 2010. 4. 2 2010. 4. 20 2010. 5. 26 2010. 11. 1 2011. 9. 2 2011. 11. 25 2012. 02. 01 (CT) 2012. 11. 09 2012. 12. 26 MOU 다. 미션및비전,

,,. [ 그림 Ⅱ-4] 충남대학교병원의미션 [ 그림 Ⅱ-5] 충남대학교병원의비전 2. 사업및재무현황 가. 사업현황 2012. < 표 Ⅱ-9> 입원및외래진료실적 (2012 년 ) () 350,499 158,541,185 88.8 % 8.8 742,441 86,295,735 40,081 20,189 624

< 표 Ⅱ-10> 진료과별환자현황 (2012 년 ) (:, ) 1,838 9,782 0 0 0.0 6,783 56,233 3,095 12,751 3.9 8,702 57,213 4,038 38,352 9.7 4,085 24,255 2,032 24,832 11.5 4,664 45,154 295 3,933 12.6 1,803 41,481 1,411 16,710 11.3 1,346 19,904 2,536 33,741 13.0 1,496 12,660 161 1,554 9.4 1,251 4,983 461 9,441 18.5 31,968 271,665 14,029 141,314 9.9 5,618 45,198 5,178 37,426 7.1 4,889 38,867 3,125 25,026 8.0 4,636 28,611 2,280 11,981 5.2 2,873 33,764 328 11,353 33.5 6,201 54,809 1,790 11,209 6.2 8,479 46,894 4,170 41,194 9.5 2,628 13,265 1,297 17,726 11.5 868 5,019 644 5,679 8.5 1,432 8,301 618 7,927 12.8 6,325 45,865 1,489 6,259 4.3 9,181 36,272 2,555 10,787 4.0 6,285 34,614 178 1,485 7.2 4,265 28,553 1,133 5,855 5.2 1,280 3,827 41 171 4.3 2,524 19,893 152 13,811 55.5 756 8,619 0 0 0.0 873 5,493 25 266 12.3 28,867 40,081 81 341 5.6 525 3,520 295 689 2.3 3,653 9,392 0 0 0.0 134,126 782,522 39,408 350,499 8.8

< 표 Ⅱ-11> 진료과별환자분류별외래진료현황 (2012 년 ) (: ) 1 2 22 8,739 924 91 6 0 9,782 35 53,094 2,793 236 35 40 56,233 54 53,984 2,819 313 32 11 57,213 15 22,647 1,418 112 28 35 24,255 27 42,873 1,928 319 7 0 45,154 23 35,760 5,347 189 8 154 41,481 12 18,230 1,610 48 4 0 19,904 8 11,681 888 80 1 2 12,660 389 4,144 400 23 18 9 4,983 585 251,152 18,127 1,411 139 251 271,665 39 42,515 2,492 92 37 23 45,198 97 37,028 1,250 476 16 0 38,867 1,032 27,069 415 86 9 0 28,611 50 30,685 2,167 474 271 117 33,764 46 51,111 3,110 354 124 64 54,809 157 41,621 2,040 414 1,944 718 46,894 67 11,472 854 110 606 156 13,265 20 4,512 308 65 78 36 5,019 1,550 5,622 222 90 762 55 8,301 162 42,964 1,929 280 264 266 45,865 74 34,907 916 172 107 96 36,272 1,456 31,509 1,195 179 232 43 34,614 65 26,808 1,258 117 66 239 28,553 506 3,096 165 30 21 9 3,827 171 17,076 1,293 330 544 479 19,893 4 8,243 369 3 0 0 8,619 5 4,543 341 21 205 378 5,493 163 35,985 2,035 375 1,503 20 40,081 5 3,408 107 0 0 0 3,520 42 9,252 80 18 0 0 9,392 6,296 720,578 40,673 5,097 6,928 2,950 782,522

< 표 Ⅱ-12> 보험종류별환자현황 (2012 년 ) 309,989 720,578 1,030,567 26,511 45,770 72,281 9,819 6,928 16,747 3,588 2,950 6,538 592 6,296 6,888 350,499 782,522 1,133,021 ( : ) < 표 Ⅱ-13> 지역사회공공사업 ( 취약계층진료실적 ) (: ) 2010 2011 2012 344,286 30,741 345,536 30,938 350,499 26,511 750,716 47,813 770,990 48,878 782,522 45,770 < 표 Ⅱ-14> 다빈도입원및수술현황 1 Malignant Neoplasm Of Stomach Operations on thyroid and parathyroid galands 2 Malignant neoplasm of thyroid gland Reduction Of fracture and dislocation 3 Angina Pectoris Extraction of lens 4 Malignant Neoplasm Of Bronchus And Lung Operations on the breast 5 Cerebral Infarction Cholecystectomy 6 Malignant Neoplasm Of Breast Nasal sinusectomy 7 Malignant Neoplasm Of Colon Hysterectomy 8 Malignant Neoplasm Of Liver And Intrahepatic Bile Ducts Excision or removal of ovary 9 Cholelithiasis Operations on vitreous 10 Pneumonia. Organism Unspecified Simple excision of lymphatic structure : 1) : 3 2) :

< 표 Ⅱ-15> 진료과별수익현황 (2012 년 ) (: ) 3,940,934 982,844 4,923,778 6,924,135 6,565,325 13,489,460 3,800,145 13,478,882 17,279,027 2,310,864 9,848,233 12,159,097 5,136,476 13,393,455 18,529,931 2,429,060 13,997,180 16,426,240 1,820,331 2,859,154 4,679,485 966,547 374,031 1,340,578 405,136 630 405,766 27,733,628 61,499,734 89,233,362 5,654,831 23,539,801 29,194,632 5,643,235 7,380,219 13,023,454 1,992,460 5,659,656 7,652,116 1,886,459 1,645,926 3,532,385 2,519,290 6,120,880 8,640,170 2,143,429 16,640,418 18,783,847 473,907 10,227,731 10,701,638 180,502 4,699,112 4,879,614 519,717 2,316,192 2,835,909 3,686,034 3,318,645 7,004,679 1,863,177 5,301,439 7,164,616 1,250,935 279,284 1,530,219 1,880,081 2,972,270 4,852,351 300,597 146,280 446,877 2,322,193 2,652,069 4,974,262 4,131,480 7,027 4,138,507 419,246 273,996 693,242 427,490 0 427,490 4,035,141 2,311,836 6,346,977 4,201,880 393,512 4,595,392 864,809 31,338 896,147 10,989,679 937,334 11,927,013 1,175,535 186,486 1,362,021 86,295,735 158,541,185 244,836,920

나. 재무현황 2012. < 표 Ⅱ-16> 손익계산서 (: ) 2010 2011 2012 1. 226,037 237,245 247,609 1) 151,899 155,660 160,587 2) 73,958 80,513 86,310 3) 3,725 3,849 4,620 4) -3,545-2,777 3,908 2. 221,972 240,067 256,706 1) 91,155 99,845 109,264 2) 82,365 86,245 87,077 3) 48,451 53,976 60,365 ( ) 4,064-2,821-9,097 3. 19,278 25,717 25,483 1) 1,488 3,198 4,016 2) 9,563 10,562 11,332 3) 2,005 2,240 1,922 4) 6,221 9,715 8,213 4. 20,611 12,911 15,006 1) 1,229 2,443 3,248 2) 5,162 5,303 5,796 3) 73 46 27 4) 10,000 0 0 5) 4,146 5,118 5,935 () 2,731 9,984 1,380 1) 245 34 0 ( ) 2,485 9,950 1,380 : 2012.

< 표 Ⅱ-17> 대차대조표 (: ) 2010 2011 2012. 87,213 85,066 61,203 1. 86,870 84,878 60,995 2. 343 188 208. 103,768 134,844 185,827 1. 817 817 823 2. 57,699 82,583 66,159 3. 45,251 51,443 118,845 219,911 247,030. 1. 47,803 52,413 64,624 2. 61,763 27,774 29,359 109,567 80,187 93,983. 1. 105,607 115,114 130,722 2. 1,582 1,582 1,583 3. (25,774) 23,026 20,742 () 2,485 9,950-8,570 () 81,415 139,723 153,047 190,982 219,911 247,030 3. 조직및시설현황 가. 조직및인력현황 1, 1, 1, 1, 7, 24. < 표 Ⅱ-18> 인력현황 (2013 년 1 월 31 일기준 ) (: ) 1 515 87 742 39 191 13 7 17 1 216 1,829 1 458 81 660 24 159 11 4 11 1 210 1,620

[ 그림 Ⅱ-6] 충남대학교병원조직도

< 표 Ⅱ-19> 진료과별의료진현황 (2012 년 12 월 31 일기준 ) (: ) () 4 2 6 3 4 5 12 4 1 5 3 2 2 7 2 2 4 3 1 4 1 1 2 2 2 20 15 7 40 82 7 4 2 13 26 7 1 10 18 5 2 5 12 7 3 4 12 26 5 1 1 4 11 5 1 3 9 3 4 7 5 1 1 8 15 4 1 1 8 14 3 8 11 4 1 1 3 9 2 0 2 5 1 8 14 3 4 8 15 3 2 2 9 16 7 4 1 8 20 2 1 1 4 7 1 3 10 21 3 3 6 6 2 8 2 4 12 18 1 0 1 1 2 17 20 1 0 1 1 0 1 19 19 137 47 26 196 406

나. 시설현황 74,643( 4,717, 5,370 ), 145,983, 1,381. [ 그림 Ⅱ-7] 충남대학교병원시설현황 1. 2. 3. 4. 1 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 2 11. 12. 13. 14., < 표 Ⅱ-20> 대지및건물현황 74,643(22,579)(4,717/5,370 ) 145,983(44,159) 41,047 1, 7, 2 16,211 1, 6, 1 10,612 1, 5, 1 2,299 3 1,656 1, 2 3,907 2, 1 3,781 1, 4 6,544 1, 5 14,105 2, 5, 1 4,133 1, 5 1,339 1 21 1 40,326 3, 8 1,381 ( 1,048 / 333 )

< 표 Ⅱ-21> 진료시설현황 (1,231) (1,175) (222) 1,175 () 6 () 10 40 1,071 60 1, 2,,, 10 34 22 21 38 42 13 86 < 표 Ⅱ-22> 협력병원현황 (3) " " (2) ( ) " 711 ( ) (898) 133 " 38 ", 16 " < 표 Ⅱ-23> 환자의뢰회송현황 (: ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 16,903 17,969 16,241 19,496 9,905 10,150 10,858 10,893

제 4 절사업의주요쟁점 1. 기술적검토및비용관련쟁점 가. 부지규모및접근성 1-4. 1-4,,. [ 그림 Ⅱ-8] 세종충남대학교병원건립부지현황 BRT BRT, 4 ( ).,., (10,888) 500

, (). 161% (,, ) 300%. (, ) 100%., 100150%, 300 24%, 14,187~21,280 17,734. ( 70%, 542),.. 나. 건축규모의적정성 2.., 500, 30, 30%. 115.7(35), 35. (GMP ). 1 33 ( 30%, 223, 7,802). 2. 수요및편익관련쟁점 가. 세종시및인근지역에대한인구추계 ( 진료권의설정 ),. 2012 7

,.,,.,, ( ), /, ( ) ().. 나. 세종충남대학교병원의공공의료기관으로서의방향성,., (), () 3( 2).,,, () 1( 27km) 15)

.,.,,, (1,2),,.,, /,., 16). 1 1 4 5 4 12

제 5 절시나리오의설정,.,. 30, 2010..

제 Ⅲ 장기술적검토및비용추정 제 1 절사업계획의적절성검토 1. 사업부지의적절성검토 가. 사업개요 500. < 표 Ⅲ-1> 세종충남대학교병원의건립개요 1-4 35,994(10,888) 39,549(11,964) 70,545(21,340) 21.30% : 70% 109.88% : 600% 4 / 10 : 10 () 500 115.7 542 233 775 : 150 1

나. 입지의적합성,, 2012 7 1, 2014 13., 15, 50, -.,., 1-4 600m, BRT(Bus Rapid Transit)., 5. [ 그림 Ⅲ-1] 대지의광역위치도

, 30km( 1 ),. 1) 용도지역지구분석 1-4, 1-4 2007 2014 4. 70%, 600%, 10, 35,994. 2014 100%. [ 그림 Ⅲ-2] 세종충남대학교병원건립부지현황 2) 접근성분석 10, 1-4. 2011 12 2-3 10, BRT, BRT. 50. BRT.

3) 부지규모적정성 3 2.. 2 < -19>,. < 표 Ⅲ-2> 부지규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 38,311 623 61.49 165,000 792 208.33 81,006 506 160.09 2 79,743 708 112.63 2 32,319 698 46.30 2 49,474 502 98.55 120,660 432 936 88.20 310,799 514 604.67 N/A N/A 1,200 N/A N/A 72,770 124 N/A N/A 74,380 300 N/A 20,952 250 83.81 N/A 7,073 N/A N/A 48,186 350 137.67 379,500 1,000 379.50 N/A 9,500 N/A N/A N/A 28,449 300 N/A

,... < 표 Ⅲ-3> 부지규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 38,311 623 61.49 16,500 792 208.33 81,006 506 160.09 2 79,743 708 112.63 2 32,319 698 46.30 2 49,474 502 98.55 120,660 432 936 88.20 310,799 514 604.67 20,952 250 83.81 48,186 350 137.67 379,500 1,000 379.50 180.11 81.44 : 1),, 2010.4. 2) 3) (www.g2b.go.kr). 46.30~604.67 180.11, 71.99 2.5. 46.30 602.67 13

,,, 100%..,, 2,. 600%, 250%. 9.45,. < 표 Ⅲ-4> 계획병상당부지면적비교 () ( ) 120,541 64,101 35,994 609 649 500 180.11 81.44 71.99 4) 환경분석 가 ) 자연환경,, BRT.,, 4 24~29.

나 ) 토지이용,.,,,,. 2. 시설규모의적절성검토 가. 건축개요 500. () 4, 10 70,545, 115.7. 775 542, 233. < 표 Ⅲ-5> 세종충남대학교병원의건립계획 1-4 35,994(10,888) 39,549(11,964) 70,545(21,340) 21.30% : 70% 109.88% : 600% 4 / 10 : 10 () 500 115.7 542 233 775 : 150 1 나. 건축규모및부대시설면적의적정성, 1970 98.11~127.80.

,,,,,,.,.., ( ). < 표 Ⅲ-6> 건축규모적정성판단을위한유사사례목록 () 70,470.00 623 113.11 2008 95,700.87 792 120.83 2005 64,667.00 506 127.80 2004 85,459.07 708 120.70 2012 68,477.83 698 98.11 2013 N/A 502 N/A 2006 N/A 432 N/A 2009 N/A 936 N/A N/A N/A 514 N/A 1997 N/A 1,200 N/A N/A N/A 124 N/A N/A N/A 300 N/A N/A N/A 250 N/A N/A 26,314.00 0 N/A N/A N/A 350 N/A N/A N/A 1,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 300 N/A N/A

500~700,... < 표 Ⅲ-7> 최근국립 / 사립대학병원병상당연면적국내사례 () 70,470.00 623 113.11 2008 95,700.87 792 120.83 2004 64,667.00 506 127.80 2004 85,459.07 708 120.70 2012 68,477.83 698 98.11 2013 116.11 165,542.0 1,250 132.4 1994 122,813.4 1004 122.3 2005 133,057.3 1,085 122.6 2009 129,968.4 1,033 125.8 2016() 125.80 120.42 : 1) (www.g2b.go.kr) 2) 3) () 4) (), ( ) 116.11, ( ) 125.80., 116.11 0.41 2 500..

< 표 Ⅲ-8> 계획병상당평균면적비교 () 104,017 76,955 62,842 855 665 500 120.42 116.11 115.7 다. 시설구성의적절성검토 1) 사업면적적절성검토의기본방향.. 2) 건축규모의적정성 ( ) 120.42 115.7 5, 116.11 0.41 ( ). 3) 시설별공간구성및면적검토. 1980 30%, 1990 30%.,,,,, ( 14 2 ).

13 2 120%,,,., 28.84%, 12.26%, 17.72%, 19.61%, 6.76%, 9.14%, 5.6%, 22.01%. < 표 Ⅲ-9> 부서별면적사례 ( 순면적기준비율 ) 698 623 506 () (%) () (%) () (%) (%) 14,007 28.93 18,787 31.03 13,918 26.57 28.84 6,482 13.39 6,119 10.21 6,917 13.19 12.26 7,508 15.51 10,402 17.36 10,650 20.30 17.72 9,845 20.34 12,312 20.67 9,351 17.83 19.61 3,548 7.33 3,017 5.04 4,156 7.92 6.76 5,918 12.22 4,890 8.16 3,691 7.04 9.14 1,105 2.28 4,391 7.33 3,775 7.20 5.60 48,461 100 59,921 100 52,460 100 100 11,590 23.94 11,288 18.84 12,206 23.27 22.01 () 60,007 71,209 64,667 26.93%, 14.30%, 17.70%, 17.30%, 3.35%, 14.92%, 5.50%, 22.00% 0.02%~ 5.78%,, 5.78%,.

< 표 Ⅲ-10> 세종충남대학교부서별면적및구성비 () (%) (%) 13,871 26.93-2.01 500 ( ) 7,366 14.30 2.04 9,117 17.70-0.02 8,911 17.30-2.27 1,726 3.35-3.41 7,686 14.92 5.78 2,833 5.50-0.10 51,511 100.00-11,332 22-0.02 7,702 62,843 70,545 4) 주차공간면적검토. < -6>..,.,.

< 표 Ⅲ-11> 사례별주차면적및설치대수 () () 623 92,884 22,414 (%) 712 761 106.88 1.22 792 110,036 14,336 1,078 1,099 101.95 1.39 506 75,553 10,886 1 /100 589 835 141.77 1.65 708 105,580 20,121 855 1,311 153.33 1.85 125.98 1.53, 125.98%. 185.41%, 150 1 100 1. 100 1 123.33%,., 101.95% ~ 153.33% 50%. 1.53. 1.55.,,,,.

라. 건축규모의재추정, 115.7 500.,., 6%.,,. < 표 Ⅲ-12> 병상당면적검토비교표 81.44 71.99-9.45 120.42 115.7-4.72 :, < -4> < 표 Ⅲ-13> 시설면적구성비검토비교표 28.84% 26.93% -1.91% 12.26% 14.30% +2.01% 17.72% 17.70% -0.01% 19.61% 17.30% -2.31% 6.76% 3.35% -3.41% 9.14% 14.92% +5.78% * 5.60% 5.50% -0.10%

제 2 절비용추정.,..,..,,.. 1. 비용추정의개요 가. 의료시설부문사업의비용의정의.,,,,,...,,.,,.,,,,.

나. 비용추정의방향 (),. [ 그림 Ⅲ-3] 비용추정과정 2. 총사업비추정 가. 공사비 1) 가격및시설기준의설정. 2012.

< 표 Ⅲ-14> 비용및편익보정지수 2003 100.0 2004 107.1 100.0 2005 110.5 103.2 100.0 2006 113.8 106.3 103.0 100.0 GDP Deflator 2007 119.2 111.4 107.9 104.8 100.0 2008 132.8 124.0 120.2 116.7 111.4 100.0 2009 135.1 126.2 122.3 118.7 113.3 101.7 100.0 2010 140.4 131.2 127.1 123.4 117.8 105.7 103.9 100.0 2011 149.0 139.1 134.8 130.9 124.9 112.1 110.2 106.1 100.0 2012 152.3 142.2 137.8 133.8 127.7 114.6 112.7 108.4 102.2 : 1) 2012. 2) GDP Deflator 2005. : (http://ecos.bok.or.kr)., GDP Deflator () 2) 유사사례분석,,....,,.

< 표 Ⅲ-15> 기존예비타당성조사건축공사비추정방식 - / -,,, / - -,,,, / / - 3.3 650 -,,,, - : ( ) - : 80% - : 70% : KDI,, 2012.11.,,,.. 2003.

< 표 Ⅲ-16> 기수행된예비타당성조사사업의병상당연면적 () () () 2003 N/A 120,155 1000 103.0 N/A 2004 N/A 87,557 1200 99.17 943 2004 72,833 58,579 500 100.53 503 2004 72,770 16,044 124 81.4 168 2004 74,380 25,140 300 83.8 378 2006 20,952 19,325 250 86.48 290 2007 7,073 31,114 N/A N/A 132 2007 67,544 35,825 500 71.65 600 2007 335,690 196,480 1000 132.2 1,627 2009 49,026 92,400 700 132.0 1,109 2010 79,547 100,098 700 143.0 500 2011 9,500 56,560 N/A N/A 610 2011 28,449 20,448 300 68.16 N/A 74,342 66,132 597.6 100.1 624 : 1). 2). 3). : KDI,, 2012.11.,...

< 표 Ⅲ-17> 조달청및교과부승인용자료에서확인된사업의병상당연면적 () () () 2011 38,311 92,884 623 113.11 835 2015 79,743 105,580 708 120.70 1,311 2015 32,319 92,144 698 98.11 742 2010 49,474 52,372 502 N/A N/A 2013 49,563 432 N/A N/A 120,660 2003 135,909 936 N/A N/A 2003 310,799 62,589 514 N/A N/A 105,217.67 84,430.14 630.43 110.64 624 : 1) (www.g2b.go.kr) 2)..,,.,.,,. 100,,,,,,,, 9. 300,,, 3,, 7. 500,.,,,.

< 표 Ⅲ-18> 예비타당성조사유사사례참고를위한의료시설의종류,,,,,,,..

< 표 Ⅲ-19> 예비타당성조사, 조달청및교과부승인사례목록 () () () () () 2003 N/A 120,155 1000 103.0 N/A 2004 N/A 87,557 1200 99.17 943 2004 72,833 58,579 500 100.53 503 2004 72,770 16,044 124 81.4 168 2004 74,380 25,140 300 83.8 378 2006 20,952 19,325 250 86.48 290 2007 7,073 31,114 N/A N/A 132 2007 67,544 35,825 500 71.65 600 2007 335,690 196,480 1000 132.2 1,627 2009 49,026 92,400 700 132.0 1,109 2010 79,547 100,098 700 143.0 500 2011 9,500 56,560 N/A N/A 610 2011 28,449 20,448 300 68.16 N/A 2011 38,311 92,884 623 113.11 835 2015 79,743 105,580 708 120.70 1,311 2015 32,319 92,144 698 98.11 742 2010 49,474 52,372 502 N/A N/A 2013 49,563 432 N/A N/A 120,660 2003 135,909 936 N/A N/A 2003 310,799 62,589 514 N/A N/A 85,239 72,538 610 102 696.29 :. 400~700,., 2012. 3) 공사비산정 < -20>

.,. < 표 Ⅲ-20> 건축공사비산출을위한검토사례목록 () () () (2012)() 2008 92,884 623 169,585 1,825,772 2,092,335 2005 95,700.87 792 216,900 2,054,678 2,831,346 2004 64,667 506 161,490 2,137,440 3,039,440 2 2012 105,580.04 708 254,093 2,406,639 2,406,639 2013 2 2006 2 92,144.26 698 227,561 2,469,617 2,444,920 52,372 502 96,427 1,841,194 2,463,517 2009 49,563 432 95,000 1,916,752 2,160,180 N/A 62,589 514 102,600 1,639,266 N/A 1997 N/A 87,557 1,200 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16,044 124 164,734 10,267,639 N/A N/A N/A 25,140 300 40,504.15 1,611,144 N/A N/A 19,325 250 30,592 1,583,027 N/A N/A N/A 31,114 N/A 53,903 1,732,436 N/A N/A 35,825 350 54,885.3 1,532,039 N/A N/A 196,480 1000 406,100 2,066,877 N/A N/A N/A 56,554 N/A 92,630 1,637,904 N/A N/A N/A 20,448 300 36,131.6 1,766,999 N/A

. 400~700.. 400~700, 500,.,,,,,,,.,,.,,,,,. GDP,, 10.,. < -20> 10 400~700.

< 표 Ⅲ-21> 유사사례건축공사비평균 () () () (2012)() 2008 92,884.00 623 169,585 1,825,772 2,092,335 2012 105,580.04 708 254,093 2,406,639 2,406,639 2013 92,144.26 698 227,561 2,469,617 2,444,920 2006 52,372 502 96,427 1,841,194 2,463,517 2009 49,563 432 95,000 1,916,752 2,160,180 :. : 1) (www.g2b.go.kr) 2) 2,313,518 2012 2,313,518. 70,545 1,632.07.,., 2015 13%,, 1.

< 표 Ⅲ-22> 공공건축물친환경관련제도요약 () 2013-383 13 3,000. 2013-71 6 3,000 1.. [2] () 24442(2013.3.23.) 1,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 :, 1, 13%(2015 ). [, 25322]. 2011 5% 2011 10%,. (2012 ) - 2012 ( 10% 5%). 2015 2012 3%,.

< 표 Ⅲ-23> 신재생에너지목표량산정 () (kwh/yr) 3% 62,842 643.52 1.00 1.00 40,440,084 1,213,203kWh/yr : 1). 2),, (2012 4 ) 50% 3) 2012( 10%) 2015. < 표 Ⅲ-24> 신재생에너지설치비용산출표 110 4,972 546,920 420 1,260 529,200 [, 16].., / /. [ ](2014.02.05.),,, 2 4 ( 2 ),. (: 3,000). < -22>,. /// 50~59,

60~69, 70~79, 80.. < 표 Ⅲ-25> 녹색건축물인증항목및배점 1.1.1 2 1. 1.2.1 2 1.3.1 2 1.3.2 2 8 2.1.1 12 2.1.2 2 2. 2.2.1 3 2.3.1 3 2.3.2 3 23 3.1.1 1 3.2.1 3 3. 3.2.2 2 3.2.3 2 3.2.4 7 3.2.5 2 17 4.1.1 3 4. 4.2.1 4 4.2.2 3 4.2.3 3 13 5.1.1 1 5. 5.2.1 / / 2 5.2.2 TAB 2 5 6.1.1 2 6. 6.2.1 6 6.3.1 4 12 7.1.1 3 7.1.2 3 7. 7.1.3 1 7.2.1 2 7.3.1 3 12 : : (2013.6)

.,.,, 0.25%. < 표 Ⅲ-26> 녹색건축물인증등급에따른공사비상승율 80 70~79 60~69 50~59 5.48% 3.89% 2.28% 0.25% (%) : : [ ] 1. 2014 9, 2014 9.. 1,.,, 1,646.9128( ),.

< 표 Ⅲ-27> 공사비산출표 (: ) 62,842 145,386.11 2.314 7,703 17,821.03 - - 1,076.12 3% - - 408.02 0.25%() 70,545-164,691.28 149,719.34(VAT) : 나. 용지보상비. [ -4],.... [ 그림 Ⅲ-4] 용지보상비산정과정.,.,.

,.,,. 1) 용지보상면적산출방법.. 2) 지가추정방법. 가 ) 직접감정평가에의하는방법. ( 5%),. 나 ) 약식감정평가에의하는방법 ( 5%),,. 다 ) 기존사업지주변의보상자료를활용하는방법.,. 라 ) 보상배율적용방법

..,.,,,.,,.,,,,. 1020%,.. < 표 Ⅲ-28> 지역별지목별보상배율 1.50 1.50 1.40 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.50 2.50 1.75 1.75 1.65 2.30 1.80 1.80 1.65 2.50 : 1), 2), 3) :, (5), 2008. 3) 용지보상비산정 2012 7, LH 1-4.,. 1-4. LH 308.47.

< 표 Ⅲ-29> LH 공사의용지공급공고가 () () 1 35,994 30,846,860 5% 다. 부대비,,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,,,..,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,.,,,,,,.,. 1) 설계비. ( ),

,.. < 표 Ⅲ-30> 직선보간법산정식 1,497.19( ) 1,000 2,000. 3(),., 3(). < 표 Ⅲ-31> 공사복잡도에따른요율 3() 5,000 11.83 9.86 7.88 1 11.11 9.26 7.41 2 8.87 7.39 5.91 3 8.09 6.74 5.39 5 7.58 6.31 5.05 10 6.48 5.40 4.32 20 5.97 4.97 3.98 30 5.76 4.80 3.84 50 5.65 4.71 3.77 100 5.50 4.59 3.67 200 5.33 4.44 3.56 300 5.29 4.41 3.53 500 5.19 4.32 3.46 1,000 5.10 4.25 3.40 2,000 5.03 4.19 3.35 3,000 4.95 4.13 3.30 5,000 4.88 4.07 3.26 : ( ),,. : 2011-750,

. < 표 Ⅲ-32> 설계비산정 (: ) (%) 164,691 149,719 5.07% 7,584 7,584 8.0% 607 7,584 7.5% 1/2 284 1 8,475 :. : 2011-750[ ] 2011-750 [ ] 11 6 51 12) 14) 2., 12) 14) 12), 13)(IBS), 14), 2. = A + 1/2 B + 1/3 C A:,, B:,, C:,, 2) 감리비,..

< 표 Ⅲ-33> 책임감리비요율 () 100 200 300 400 500 700 1,000 1,500 2,000 6.95 7.72 8.49 5.63 6.26 6.88 4.97 5.52 6.07 4.53 5.04 5.54 4.24 4.71 5.18 3.85 4.28 4.70 3.52 3.91 4.30 3.11 3.46 3.80 2.85 3.17 3.49 : 27. :, 2013, 2012.4., 1,000, 1500 3.80%.. < 표 Ⅲ-34> 감리비산정 (: ) (%) 164,691 149,719 3.80 5,694 :. 3) 조사및측량비,,. ( 5)(2008.12) 1%. < 표 Ⅲ-35> 조사및측량비산정 (: ) (%) 164,691 149,719 1.00 1,497 :.

4) 부대비총합. < 표 Ⅲ-36> 부대비총합 (: ) (%) 5.07% 7,584 8% 607 7.5% 1/2 284 8,475 3.80% 5,694 1% 1,497 10% 1,567 17,232 라. 기타투자비용,,... 2( ) 21 1..., 132,.,,.

.. < 표 Ⅲ-37> 기타투자비용항목 :.. 5. < -30>. 5 5.. < 표 Ⅲ-38> 건축물등의기준내용연수및내용연수범위표 (~) 1 5 - (, (4~6) ),, 2 12 - (,, (9~15) ) 3 20 -,,,,,, (15~25), ( ) 4 40 -,,,, (30~50) ( ) : 153 [ 5]

1) 의료기기투자비.,... ( ).... (2012.11),.. 2011 (KDI). < -19> (KDI, 2011). 2012, 62.20. 500, 311.02. 5.

< 표 Ⅲ-39> 유사사례의단위면적당의료기기투자비 (: ) (2003) 936 47.76 131.33 62.72 (2003) 514 54.89 131.33 72.08 (2009) 792 47.35 109.42 51.81 50.00-62.20 : 1) 2012. 2). :,, 2014. < 표 Ⅲ-40> 의료기기투자비비교표 (: ) 500 62.20 31,102 :. 2) 집기비품투자비.. 5.. - :, - :,,,,, - :, - :,,,, - :, - :, - :,,

- : ( ),,,, - : TV, Video - :,,,,,,.. < -19> 2011.. 620. 500, 30 9,851. 5. < 표 Ⅲ-41> 유사사례의단위면적당집기비품투자비 (: ) () (2013) 698 560.0 0.99 554.4 (2003) 936 477.6 131.33 627.2 (2003) 514 548.9 131.33 720.9 (2004) 300 454.5 126.78 576.3 510.3-619.7 : 1) 2012. 2). : 1),, 2012. 2),, 2014.

< 표 Ⅲ-42> 집기비품투자비투자비비교표 (: ) 500 619.7 309,851 :. 3) 전산시스템투자비,..

< 표 Ⅲ-43> 세종충남대학교병원전산장비비산출표 (: ) OCS 1 EMR 1-2,200,000,000 (HIS,ERP) 1 () S/W H/W 12 PACS 1 900,000,000 900,000,000 PACS 1 180,000,000 180,000,000 1 90,000,000 90,000,000 1 180,000,000 180,000,000 1 150,000,000 150,000,000 1 120,000,000 120,000,000, DB 1 150,000,000 150,000,000 1 270,000,000 270,000,000 DBMS 1 720,000,000 720,000,000 1 198,000,000 198,000,000 DB 1 66,000,000 66,000,000 DB 1 27,500,000 27,500,000 1 99,000,000 99,000,000 HW 3 11,000,000 33,000,000 SW 3 66,000,000 198,000,000 HW, SW 2 132,000,000 264,000,000, HW, SW 1 70,000,000 70,000,000 RFID HW, SW 1 220,000,000 220,000,000 (PDA) CRM HW, SW 1 38,500,000 38,500,000 KMI HW, SW 1 27,500,000 27,500,000 HW 1 13,200,000 13,200,000 HW, SW 1 88,000,000 88,000,000 DNS HW 1 5,500,000 5,500,000 DUR HW 1 5,500,000 5,500,000 EMR HW, SW 7 5,500,000 38,500,000 HW 1 178,200,000 178,200,000 HW 1 11,000,000 11,000,000 L2 HW 15 3,850,000 57,750,000 L3 HW 5 7,700,000 38,500,000 L4 HW 1 66,000,000 66,000,000 HW 1 55,000,000 55,000,000 IPS HW 1 44,000,000 44,000,000 HW 1 88,000,000 88,000,000 IP HW 1 110,000,000 110,000,000 DB, WEB 7,000,650,000 : 1). 2), UPS, PC,, cart, KIOSK,.

< 표 Ⅲ-44> 유사사례의전산시스템투자비분석 (: ) (2012) 708 5,109 100.0 5,109 (2011) 300 6,354 102.19 6,493 (2006) 250 7,400 120.68 8,930 6,844 :. :,, 2012. (2014),. (2012). 5,109~8,930, 6,844. 7,001. 5. 4) 개원전운영비. 1,..,.. 1.

. 300 2012 1,163. 300, 90%, 90%. < 표 Ⅲ-45> 인원추산비교표 (: ) (1,175) (300) (90%) (500) 137 35 31 57 47 12 11 26 7 6 196 50 45 56 52 13 12 15 458 117 105 128 24 6 6 10 613 157 141 237 161 41 37 59 83 21 19 60 11 3 3-11 3 3-4 1 1-95 24 22-55 14 13-63 16 14 36 1,578 403 363 530 : 1) 2012 12 31 2) 2012 12 31

< 표 Ⅲ-46> 개원전인건비산출표 (: ) (300) 1 31 5,197,550 163,623,305 11 10,302,942 111,271,770 6 4,563,979 27,267,348 45 3,658,309 164,764,018 12 3,260,357 38,957,794 105 26,983,137 505,884,235 6 3,355,143 18,503,259 141 2,597,359 365,862,872 37 2,597,359 96,091,227 19 3,243,710 61,865,141 3 2,612,359 6,603,154 3 2,612,359 6,603,154 1 2,612,359 2,401,147 22 1,994,612 43,541,961 13 2,057,696 26,005,770 14 2,067,696 29,933,193 363 52,733,788 1,163,295,113 5) 기타투자비산정결과,,,. < 표 Ⅲ-47> 기타투자비산정 (: ) (500) 34,212 5 3,408 5 7,001 5 (1) :. 1,163 300 45,784

마. 예비비. (5)(KDI, 2008),,, 10% 258.55. 바. 총사업비종합 2,844.1( ),. < 표 Ⅲ-48> 세종충남대학교병원의총사업비산정결과 A. 164,691 A-1. 132,169 A-2. 16,201 A-3. 978 A-4. 371 A-5. (A1+A2+A3+A+4) 10% 14,972 B. 17,232 B-1. A1 5.07% 1 8,475 B-2. A1 3.80% 1 5,694 B-3. A1 1% 1 1,497 B-4. (B1+B2+B3) 10% 1,567 C. 30,847 D. 45,784 D-1. 31,102 D-2. 3,099 D-3. 6,364 D-4. 1,058 D-5. (D1+D2+D3+D4) 10% 4,162 E. (A+B+C+D) 10% 25,855 (: ) F. A+B+C+D+E 284,410

< 표 Ⅲ-49> 총사업비산정결과비교표 (: ) (A) (B) (B-A) 145,386 155,348 17,821 7,859 A. 0 1,076 1,076 0 408 408 155,348 164,691 9,344 5,127 7,876 4,195 1,466 B. 4,956 6,263 1,307 358 1,647 1,289 13,189 17,232 4,043 C. 30,847 30,847 0 30,847 30,847 0 33,000 34,212 1,212 0 3,408 3,408 D. 7,700 7,001-699 3,300 1,163-2,137 44,000 45,784 1,784 E. ((A+B+C+D)*10%) 24,338 25,855 1,517 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 267,722 284,410 16,688 3. 운영비산정,.... 3~5.

,,, (2012.11).. 가. 인건비..,,.,,,.,,. (, ) ( ), (,, ).. < 표 Ⅲ-50> 의료시설인력분류,,,, (,,,, ),, : KDI,, 2012.11. 나. 경상운영비... (2012.11),.

< 표 Ⅲ-51> 경상운영비항목 ( 예시 ), FAX,,,,,,,, (,, ) ( ) : KDI,, 2012.11. (1,175) 2012,. < 표 Ⅲ-52> 충남대학교병원경상운영비산정 (: /1,175 ) 2012 359,955 3,356,962 336,522 518,011 1,485,913 638,336 6,695,699 5,698, 3 300, 3 17.1, 500 28.49.

4. 경제성분석을위한비용산정 가. 감가상각비및재투자비... 30 ( 30).,,, 5., 5 5.,,, 500. 3 300 3/5 5 2/5. < 표 Ⅲ-53> 재투자비산정 (: ) (500) 31,102 34,212 3,099 3,408 6,364 7,001 40,565 44,621

나. 이전지출.. 5. 연차별배분계획. < 표 Ⅲ-54> 사업진행절차및일정 2014 2015 2016 2017. 20%, 40%, 40%,. 20%, 40%, 40%, 2016 2017., 1 300 2017. < 표 Ⅲ-55> 총사업비의연차별투입비율 (: %) 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 40 40 100 70 30 100 20 40 40 100 100 100 100 30 70 100 100 100 30 70 100 100 100

< 표 Ⅲ-56> 총사업비의연차별배분계획 (: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 32,938 65,877 65,877 164,691 6,525 2,797 9,322 1,253 2,505 2,505 6,263 1,647 1,647 30,847 30,847 10,264 23,949 34,212 3,408 3,408 2,100 4,900 7,001 1,163 1,163 3,902 3,699 8,075 10,180 25,855 42,921 40,686 88,820 111,983 284,410 :. < 표 Ⅲ-57> 경제성분석을위한비용의연차별배분계획 (: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 29,944 59,888 59,888 149,719 5,932 2,542 8,475 1,139 2,277 2,277 5,694 1,497 1,497 30,847 30,847 9,331 21,771 31,102 3,099 3,099 1,909 4,455 6,364 1,058 1,058 3,828 3,363 7,341 9,255 23,786 42,104 36,988 80,746 101,803 261,641 :..,.

< 표 Ⅲ-58> 경제성분석총괄비용배분표 (: ) 2014 5,932 1,497 30,847 3,828 42,104 2015 29,944 2,542 1,139 3,362 36,987 2016 59,888 2,277 9,331 1,909 7,341 80,746 2017 59,888 2,277 21,771 1,859 4,455 1,058 9,275 100,439 1 2018 1,710 1,710 2 2019 1,710 1,710 3 2020 1,710 1,710 4 2021 1,710 1,710 5 2022 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 6 2023 2,849 2,849 7 2024 2,849 2,849 8 2025 2,849 2,849 9 2026 2,849 2,849 10 2027 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 11 2028 2,849 2,849 12 2029 2,849 2,849 13 2030 2,849 2,849 14 2031 2,849 2,849 15 2032 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 16 2033 2,849 2,849 17 2034 2,849 2,849 18 2035 2,849 2,849 19 2036 2,849 2,849 20 2037 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 21 2038 2,849 2,849 22 2039 2,849 2,849 23 2040 2,849 2,849 24 2041 2,849 2,849 25 2042 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 26 2043 2,849 2,849 27 2044 2,849 2,849 28 2045 2,849 2,849 29 2046 2,849 2,849 30 2047-30,847 6,220 620 1,273 2,849-19,845 149,719 8,475 5,694 1,497 0 192,832 17,971 39,458 1,058 23,806 82,053 522,419.

제 Ⅳ 장수요추정 제 1 절수요분석목적및개요 (demand),,. (want), (need)...,.,..,.,. [ -1]..

. ( ),..,..,. [ 그림 Ⅳ-1] 공공의료시설사업의사업규모타당성및경제성평가개요

제 2 절세종시인구규모추정의전제 ( ). ( ),.,, 2012 7 1. 17) [ 그림 Ⅳ-2] 세종특별자치시의구역 ( 범위 )

,, 2003 12 () (). (attributes). 2011 90,212( 1,956 ), 37,021, 2012 7 105,580, 43,364. 2012 7 2014 3 < -1>. < 표 Ⅳ-1> 세종시출범이후월별인구현황 (2012 년 7 월 ~ 2014 년 2 월 ) (:, ) 2012 7 105,580 103,127 52,624 50,503 2,453 43,364 2012 8 108,920 106,625 54,338 52,287 2,295 44,460 2012 9 110,377 108,027 55,022 53,005 2,350 44,934 2012 10 112,141 109,823 55,913 53,910 2,318 45,493 2012 11 113,481 111,191 56,596 54,595 2,290 45,914 2012 12 115,388 113,117 57,633 55,484 2,271 46,592 2013 1 116,168 113,911 58,074 55,837 2,257 46,592 2013 2 117,594 115,269 58,788 56,481 2,325 47,246 2013 3 118,345 115,955 59,136 56,819 2,390 47,492 2013 4 118,740 116,345 59,322 57,023 2,395 47,671 2013 5 119,270 116,842 59,592 57,250 2,428 47,902 2013 6 119,451 117,012 59,661 57,351 2,439 47,994 2013 7 119,822 117,369 59,837 57,532 2,453 48,142 2013 8 120,375 117,939 60,134 57,805 2,436 48,319 2013 9 120,765 118,273 60,315 57,958 2,492 48,419 2013 10 121,247 118,745 60,573 58,172 2,502 48,624 2013 11 121,787 119,309 60,841 58,468 2,478 48,860 2013 12 124,615 122,153 62,205 59,948 2,462 50,045 2014 1 126,260 123,802 63,011 60,791 2,458 50,676 2014 2 128,395 125,944 64,021 61,923 2,451 51,502 2014 3 129,365 126,857 64,507 62,350 2,508 51,915 1.021% 1.041% 1.023% 1.059% 0.111% 0.904% : (http://www.sejong.go.kr)

, 37 2017. < -2> < -3> 37,., 148, 148 114 16 18 (, ( ), ( ), ( ), 119( ), ( ) ). 18) < 표 Ⅳ-2> 세종시이전중앙행정기관및소속기관 (19 ) (18 ),,,, 1: 2012,,,, (15 ),,,,, (9 ) (6 ), 2: 2013 (16 ) 3: 2014 (6 ) : (2013.6),,,,,,,,,,,, (6 ), (10 ),,,, (4 ) (2 )

< 표 Ⅳ-3> 세종시이전정부출연연구기관및개별이전기관현황 () () (km) 393 826 19.0 101 309 19.0 115 59 19.0 46 230 19.0 42 645 19.0 70 25 33.7 155 61 46.7 216 235 56.7 289 56 54.0 463 518 53.6 280 150 55.2 197 289 268 319 331 67 113 1,300 234 89 65 119 52 185 3,443 3,114 : (http://innocity.mltm.go.kr), 2015, 18,000.., 2015 25, 2020 50. < -1>, 2014 3 129,365( 2,508 ), 2013 11 121,787( 2,478 ). 2 5,600,

15,000( 2.67 ), 2013 11 4 7,578.,., 1 5,210 1. 4,542( 87.2%) 76.6% 3,478, 23.4% 1,064. 57.0%(2,591), 19.5%(887). 1,064 2013~2015 12.6%, 10.8%. 1,,.. 19), 2014 3 1 4 11(42) 3 3 4 24 ( 39) 20), 21).,. 9 < -4>. 22)

< 표 Ⅳ-4> 세종청사공무원통근버스운행실태 (: ) - - / 3,381 1,833 1,548 2,728 1,811 917 2,863 3,081-217 2,080 2,341-261 6,244 4,913 1,331 4,808 4,152 656.,, ( ),., (, ),., < -4> 1,436 761 2,197 ( ). 23), 4,808 ( ).,,, (, 365 24 =8,760),., 1(168) 8 8 108

(60= 48+ 12) (2,197 ) 64.3%(108 168). 24), 12/, 35.7%(60 168), 4,808 35.7%., ~, ( )~ BRT(bus rapid transit, ). 3 1 4 11, < -5>. < 표 Ⅳ-5> BRT 탑승자현황자료 (: ) (-) (-) 2,611 1,290 1,012 246 3,623 1,535 () 2,467 490 () 1,638 358 4,105 848,.,, BRT.,,.

< 표 Ⅳ-6> BRT 시간대별탑승현황 41 () 42 () 43 () 44 () 45 () 46 () 47 () () (: ) () 07:0008:00 203 104 285 117 08:0009:00 242 92 211 199 09:0010:00 197 24 79 108 14:0015:00 62 41 96 40 18:0019:00 248 87 220 166 20:0021:00 132 44 120 82 07:0008:00 225 118 287 148 08:0009:00 237 77 205 169 09:0010:00 177 28 99 106 14:0015:00 101 51 80 63 18:0019:00 314 109 225 242 20:0021:00 92 32 118 47 07:0008:00 224 123 284 150 08:0009:00 250 99 214 214 09:0010:00 175 21 95 100 14:0015:00 99 46 97 51 18:0019:00 271 94 206 189 20:0021:00 112 38 116 78 07:0008:00 202 116 299 131 08:0009:00 219 82 153 224 09:0010:00 208 36 100 127 14:0015:00 94 58 113 66 18:0019:00 307 100 240 216 20:0021:00 101 24 103 63 07:0008:00 49 12 67 42 08:0009:00 86 30 105 57 09:0010:00 130 10 82 89 14:0015:00 103 15 55 81 18:0019:00 81 13 86 63 20:0021:00 50 5 60 25 07:0008:00 25 6 37 22 08:0009:00 85 13 50 64 09:0010:00 72 8 49 49 14:0015:00 78 13 72 66 18:0019:00 71 17 124 61 20:0021:00 91 19 74 41 07:0008:00 217 103 252 135 08:0009:00 299 68 253 155 09:0010:00 183 13 72 108 14:0015:00 69 38 92 43 18:0019:00 276 56 218 193 20:0021:00 134 30 131 96

., 4 1 4 7 BRT, < -6>., () BRT. () BRT,., KTX 2014 1 6 ( < -7> ). KTX. < 표 Ⅳ-7> 세종청사직원 KTX 전세객차운행현황 109 (2014.1.6) 251 503 (2014.2.3) 258 516 () (06:10) (07:10) (07:23) (19:33) (20:19) () (06:40) (06:57) (07:27) (07:57) (19:45) (20:49) (07:20) (07:50) (20:08) () (07:33) (08:04) (08:11) (20:23) (21:02) () 60 (1) 120 (2) 60 (1) 120 (2) 60 (1) :. < -7> KTX, < -6> BRT 7 9 BRT, 6 9 BRT KTX. 25)

( ), < -6> BRT 450.5( ) 516 65.5 ( )., ( ) 484.5(-, ) 21.5( )., ( ). < 표 Ⅳ-8> 역외출퇴근세종청사공무원의세종시인구산입 KTX 4,808 2,197 935 87 35.7% 64.3% 35.7% 64.3% (: ) 1,716.5 1,412.7 333.8 55.9 3,518.9, < -3>. < -3> (463 ) 3,443( 2,980 ), 2,980., < -8> 15,151 4,808(31.7%), 2,197(14.5%), 3,443 31.7% 1,091, 14.5% 499. 1,853(=3,443-1,091-499). < -9>

. < 표 Ⅳ-9> 이전예정정부출연연구기관종사자의세종시인구산입 (: ) 1,091 499 35.7% 64.3% 389.5 320.9 710.4 4,229.3,.,,. 2013, 23,437 52 32-4, 8,242. 26), BRT.,,.,,,.,., 12,471(4,229.3+8,242) 주 일 명주일

.,,., 2014 3. < 표 Ⅳ-10> 세종시월별자동차등록현황 ( ) /( ) (:, %) 2012 7 1) 43,077 31,191 2,309 9,488 89 6,075-16.42 8,456 2012 8 44,771 32,447 2,386 9,841 97 1,694 74.14 3.93 8,565 2012 9 45,520 33,105 2,423 9,893 99 749 87.85 1.67 8,662 2012 10 46,295 33,785 2,445 9,964 101 775 87.74 1.70 8,759 2012 11 46,955 34,327 2,462 10,062 104 660 82.12 1.43 8,756 2012 12 47,580 34,830 2,464 10,179 107 625 80.48 1.33 8,683 2013 1 48,316 35,488 2,492 10,229 107 736 89.40 1.55 8,673 2013 2 48,986 36,042 2,535 10,297 112 670 82.69 1.39 8,687 2013 3 49,563 36,516 2,600 10,331 116 577 82.15 1.18 8,696 2013 4 50,000 36,823 2,637 10,413 127 437 70.25 0.88 8,724 2013 5 50,400 37,179 2,656 10,433 132 400 89.00 0.80 8,731 2013 6 50,676 37,381 2,669 10,491 135 276 73.19 0.55 8,767 2013 7 50,952 37,561 2,676 10,581 134 276 65.22 0.54 8,752 2013 8 51,245 37,791 2,700 10,616 138 293 78.50 0.58 8,758 2013 9 51,498 38,027 2,698 10,635 138 253 93.28 0.49 8,764 2013 10 51,854 38,336 2,717 10,665 136 356 86.80 0.69 8,768 2013 11 52,135 38,582 2,713 10,705 135 281 87.54 0.54 8,756 2013 12 52,889 39,301 2,744 10,707 137 754 95.36 1.45 8,756 2014 1 53,919 40,185 2,798 10,798 138 1,030 85.83 1.95 8,751 2014 2 54,808 40,947 2,855 10,868 138 889 85.71 1.65 8,757 2014 3 58,134 43,732 2,937 11,301 164 3,326 83.73 6.07 8,775 1.51 1.70 1.21 0.88 3.10 - - 0.19 : 2012 7 :. < -10>, 2012 7 2014 3 1.51%. 85%, 2

2013 11 2014 2 2,365( 2,673 ), 2014 3 2,785 ( 3,326 ) 5,150( 5,999 )., (2012 3 2014 1) < -11>. < 표 IV-11> 세종시전입인구현황 (2012 년 3/4 분기 -2014 년 1/4 분기 ) 2012 3/4 2012 4/4 2013 1/4 2013 2/4 11,186 7,194 8,921 4,993 7,462 2,759 4,622 995 4,115 1,122 7,606 3,820 9,266 4,639 53,178 25,522 944 706 1,174 919 797 472 343 85 476 217 1,235 982 1,506 1,104 6,475 4,485 12.18% 17.57% 107 80 144 99 86 29 76 36 28-13 71 25 98 26 610 282 1.15% 1.10% 85 65 80 60 65 27 41 23 45 20 82 54 149 83 547 332 1.03% 1.30% 168 120 178 117 179 88 137 75 114 31 162 86 208 115 1,146 632 2.16% 2.48% 80 61 72 44 62 34 50 29 47 20 80 45 136 98 527 331 0.99% 1.30% 3,580 3,004 1,807 1,156 1,137 360 742 202 691 226 1,442 874 1,510 774 10,909 6,596 20.51% 25.84% 19 8 17-4 25-2 19 6 34 9 9-4 42 28 165 41 0.31% 0.16% 1,530 0 1,108 0 1,428 0 1,012 0 641 0 1,024 0 1,311 0 8,054 0 15.15% 0.00% 1,760 1,412 2,094 1,644 1,286 809 595 227 658 298 1,435 1,038 1,752 1,254 9,580 6,682 18.01% 26.18% 74 17 78 43 89 25 48-5 57 15 78-1 129 68 553 162 1.04% 0.63% 829 395 736 205 962 411 685 190 521 125 626 193 834 358 5,193 1,877 9.77% 7.35% 1,562 1,085 1,049 500 877 288 570 21 544 98 924 303 945 382 6,471 2,677 12.17% 10.49% 167 104 129 78 154 67 109 67 93 37 141 81 179 100 972 534 1.83% 2.09% 79 39 60 29 90 58 51 8 38 16 83 51 105 62 506 263 0.95% 1.03% 93 50 100 51 113 61 74 20 55 4 111 50 150 61 696 297 1.31% 1.16% 96 42 83 48 85 12 64 20 64 25 71 15 170 94 633 256 1.19% 1.00% 13 6 12 4 27 20 6-9 9-6 32 28 42 32 141 75 0.27% 0.29% 2013 3/4 2013 4/4 2014 1/4 (:, %) < -11>,,, >>>.,,., 2

,. 2013 4 2014 1 8,459(=3,820+4,639) 2 5,600. < -1>. 2012 7 2014 2, 19 1.035% 0.91%.,,., () [ -3]. 27) [ 그림 Ⅳ-3] 세종시의주민등록인구및세대수추이 (2012 년 7 월 ~2014 년 2 월 ) Population in Sejong Households in Sejong 140,000 54,000 130,000 52,000 120,000 50,000 110,000 48,000 46,000 100,000 44,000 90,000 Pop. Actual Pop. Est (linear) 42,000 Households Actual Households Est (linear) 80,000 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Time ( Quarter) 40,000 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Time (Quarter)

(linear trend model) 2018 30 2047., 2020 30, 2030 50,,. 28), 30.,.,., 19 2018 2047 ( 1)., 2018 2047, 2012 6 27 : 2010-2040., 2010 4,941, 2030 5,216, 2040 5,109., 2030. 2031~2035 0.27%, 2036 2047 0.05% ( 2)., 2024, 2012 8 : 2010-2035, 1.44%(2025~2034) 0.94%(2035 )., 2012 8 : 2010-2035 2012 6., 2025 2034 0.53%, 2035 0.18%

. 2047 ( 3). 2018 2047 < -12>. 29), 2020 30 2030 50.,,. 30), 31) 2030 200,000( 194,000, 6,000 ), 60%, 2047, 64%. -, ()- BRT, 3.,., ( 20,000 ),,. BRT

. < 표 Ⅳ-12> 세종시의인구 32) 및세대수추계 (2018 년 ~2047 년 ) (:, ) ( 1) ( 2) ( 3) 1) (1) (2) 2018 190,962 190,962 190,962 234,575 71,249 71,249 2019 201,666 201,666 201,666 265,278 75,464 75,464 2020 212,370 212,370 212,370 300,000 79,678 79,678 2021 223,074 223,074 223,074 315,723 83,893 83,893 2022 233,778 233,778 233,778 332,270 88,107 88,107 2023 244,482 244,482 244,482 349,684 92,322 92,322 2024 255,186 255,186 255,186 368,011 96,536 96,536 2025 265,890 265,890 265,890 387,298 100,751 100,751 2026 276,594 276,594 267,300 407,597 104,965 102,201 2027 287,298 287,298 268,716 428,959 109,179 103,673 2028 298,002 298,002 270,141 451,440 113,394 105,166 2029 308,706 308,706 271,572 475,100 117,608 106,680 2030 319,410 319,410 273,012 500,000 121,823 108,216 2031 330,114 324,220 274,459 501,350 126,037 109,775 2032 340,818 325,085 275,913 502,704 130,252 111,356 2033 351,522 325,952 277,376 504,061 134,466 112,959 2034 362,226 326,821 278,846 505,422 138,681 114,586 2035 372,930 327,693 280,324 506,787 142,895 116,236 2036 383,634 327,857 280,828 507,040 147,110 117,328 2037 394,338 328,021 281,334 507,293 151,324 118,431 2038 405,042 328,185 281,840 507,547 155,539 119,544 2039 415,746 328,349 282,347 507,801 159,753 120,668 2040 426,450 328,513 282,856 508,055 163,968 121,802 2041 437,154 328,677 283,365 508,309 168,182 122,947 2042 447,858 328,841 283,875 508,563 172,397 124,103 2043 458,562 329,006 284,386 508,817 176,611 125,270 2044 469,266 329,170 284,898 509,072 180,826 126,447 2045 479,970 329,335 285,410 509,326 185,040 127,636 2046 490,674 329,500 285,924 509,581 189,255 128,836 2047 501,378 329,664 286,439 509,836 193,469 130,047 : 1),, 2013.2.

제 3 절진료권설정,.,..,.,.,,,,, (,, ) (RI, Relevance Index). (2013 2),.. ( ) 2,,., ( )., < -13>., (

) 1 7, 2, 1 1( ). < 표 Ⅳ-13> 세종시인근의종합병원급이상의의료기관현황 from 1) (km) () 1,175 41.0 / 33.2 56 / 59 865 28.4 / 24.4 39 / 49 840 35.9 / 32.8 38 / 50 681 39.5 / 33.2 52 / 57 530 38.5 / 33.2 47 / 50 183 24.3 / 17.9 27 / 30 420 26.3 42 377 34.4 40 736 45.3 / 51.0 55 / 56 802 47.2 / 49.4 45 / 57 254 44.7 53 120 40.0 43 317 18.1 / 16.9 31 / 33 695 47.9 / 56.9 60 / 50 412 73 68 205 66.2 55 220 82.5 100 210 96.9 74 299 98.3 75 205 102.0 82 612 26.0 / 28.9 48 / 49 : 1), (www.naver.com).,,,. : ( ), 2014.1., < -14>. 2, 9, 20.,,

.,.. < 표 IV-14> 대전및충남지역의응급의료체계 1 1 4 2013 7 5 4 16 :

..,,., 2009 2013 5. < -15> < -16>.,.,,.,.,,,,. 2013 58 < -13> 2 2 4 ( 1,912), < -15>, 0.02% 0.03% ( < -17>).., ( 317), (42km) (18km),

., ( 612)., 156 0.21% 0.22%,.

< 표 IV-15> 대전본원의입원실인원및외래신환의연도별현황 (: ) () () 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6,391 5,675 5,922 6,298 5,811 5,393 5,454 5,595 5,855 5,964 9,678 7,626 7,448 7,416 6,829 7,649 7,857 7,757 7,584 7,715 8,974 8,178 8,479 9,183 8,610 6,921 7,358 7,350 7,560 7,524 3,734 3,789 4,304 4,840 5,039 2,552 2,700 2,955 2,936 3,454 3,636 3,464 3,595 3,958 3,748 3,416 3,477 3,228 3,487 3,642 32,413 28,732 29,748 31,695 30,037 25,931 26,846 26,885 27,422 28,299 1,316 1,298 1,337 1,478 1,341 1,419 1,420 1,400 1,440 1,471 1,163 1,227 1,316 1,395 1,300 1,350 1,408 1,365 1,283 1,333 544 544 558 578 580 310 349 325 304 351 310 391 361 375 318 228 328 261 263 227 179 234 212 235 242 134 146 154 149 171 98 95 117 138 144 43 53 61 54 75 161 172 194 224 218 95 74 86 97 77 1,291 1,337 1,277 1,280 1,153 1,320 1,616 1,247 1,345 1,471 121 144 164 162 147 80 88 98 105 94 710 793 825 852 828 743 848 874 823 865 139 171 172 171 186 183 205 181 180 191 443 471 457 0 0 414 491 392 0 0 101 129 97 113 154 83 119 78 86 89 252 244 252 270 235 268 279 245 253 248 85 84 88 103 89 68 81 71 63 73 116 141 146 182 142 81 92 122 121 98 7,029 7,475 7,573 7,556 7,077 6,819 7,597 6,960 6,566 6,834 566 452 547 519 614 131 148 143 126 170 86 85 99 107 118 23 32 40 43 28 63 41 79 68 79 20 11 19 19 21 128 87 101 129 139 38 29 25 34 44 87 70 198 256 213 27 19 38 74 68 51 43 38 45 54 15 25 8 18 6 0 0 0 633 997 0 0 0 480 619 3,261 3,122 3,338 3,551 3,389 3,115 3,176 3,248 3,216 3,095 687 656 759 742 786 211 242 239 233 226 94 93 120 104 106 50 37 40 37 68 201 173 210 227 245 93 116 129 114 111 357 377 404 436 431 244 221 211 262 282 113 122 163 143 169 103 85 125 108 103 689 703 781 797 829 626 566 636 648 695 26 20 30 14 23 10 11 11 8 4 0 0 0 0 0-0 0 0 0 45,851 42,251 44,188 47,022 45,306 37,456 39,161 38,757 39,408 40,673

< 표 IV-16> 대전본원의입원및외래연인원의연도별현황 (: ) () () 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 104,651 108,116 111,493 115,224 121,005 48,623 50,114 50,832 52,720 58,575 157,066 160,713 163,327 165,520 175,175 69,030 68,345 70,725 65,999 70,632 146,770 154,707 157,349 157,127 167,446 56,053 63,253 62,550 62,928 65,758 52,071 56,372 63,056 66,736 72,826 19,591 20,350 23,426 24,394 28,686 63,320 66,249 66,720 65,882 72,241 29,516 30,527 27,870 30,182 33,100 523,878 546,157 561,945 570,489 608,693 222,813 232,589 235,403 236,223 256,751 22,439 23,367 23,738 23,794 24,990 12,627 12,617 12,059 13,461 14,387 23,168 24,003 25,336 24,658 25,765 12,261 12,713 12,677 11,706 14,015 5,379 6,073 6,789 6,690 7,136 2,133 2,257 2,618 2,327 2,836 3,699 4,164 4,074 4,009 4,053 2,521 3,057 2,417 2,477 1,644 1,829 2,064 2,110 2,019 2,286 993 1,132 1,513 2,207 1,822 745 740 899 1,036 1,104 355 686 715 757 604 1,591 1,556 1,462 1,462 1,466 1,025 614 723 960 927 25,256 27,839 26,586 26,986 28,532 12,485 14,512 12,193 13,378 14,595 1,083 1,152 1,513 1,473 1,417 662 1,095 977 1,062 834 13,849 15,130 15,766 15,182 16,017 7,463 8,194 8,079 8,238 9,668 2,957 3,201 3,065 2,958 3,048 2,116 1,845 1,670 1,486 2,151 7,925 8,365 8,100 8,279 7,869 3,767 4,141 3,957 4,254 3,588 1,248 1,492 1,343 1,472 1,642 701 833 892 774 1,322 4,717 5,133 5,074 4,710 4,981 2,638 3,168 2,123 2,303 3,157 932 1,059 1,091 988 1,046 578 1,006 1,018 731 1,143 1,121 1,295 1,328 1,571 1,385 1,109 858 978 1,206 1,107 117,938 126,633 128,274 127,287 132,737 63,434 68,728 64,609 67,327 73,800 2,257 2,354 2,394 2,354 2,521 923 1,043 1,200 1,207 1,736 447 472 413 453 473 139 388 369 400 249 279 201 326 265 309 150 294 145 232 194 561 411 378 427 486 620 158 312 400 361 452 417 756 1,202 1,305 201 147 348 409 524 233 242 348 242 244 143 298 469 331 82 0 0 0 1142 3,216 0 0 0 500 1,622 52,445 54,827 55,182 55,596 56,921 28,069 28,677 29,761 29,305 28,830 3,151 3,245 3,590 3,604 3,631 2,128 2,069 2,252 2,463 2,210 660 648 629 668 866 593 364 279 251 657 1,412 1,376 1,456 1,516 1,769 1,027 944 1,077 893 830 3,476 3,582 3,670 3,900 4,127 2,025 2,027 2,129 2,263 3,734 1,081 1,033 1,251 1,136 1,293 1,192 1,041 1,060 1,252 930 9,005 9,007 9,981 10,086 10,349 6,067 5,436 6,016 6,500 6,492 117 111 137 112 121 121 77 94 38 17 260 2,043 1,550 6 13 505 183 717,392 750,716 770,990 782,522 830,611 329,645 344,286 345,536 350,499 379,202

황 < 표 IV-17> 세종충남대학교병원부진료권의의료이용 ( 인구대비및입원 / 외래실인원 ) 현 2009 540,832 95 161 124,172 1,419 1,316 256,449 43 98 1,527,478 3,115 3,261 2010 557,673 74 172 124,930 1,420 1,298 265,191 53 95 1,549,528 3,176 3,122 2011 571,377 86 194 124,748 1,400 1,337 274,523 61 117 1,562,903 3,248 3,338 2012 581,988 97 224 117,298 1,440 1,478 280,490 54 138 1,565,628 3,216 3,551 2013 584,240 77 218 116,838 1,471 1,341 283,121 75 144 1,567,309 3,095 3,389 (5 ) (:, %) 0.02 0.03 1.18 1.12 0.02 0.04 0.20 0.21 < -17>,,, 2018 2047, ( ). 2012 : 2010-2040. < -18> 2047. (< -12> ),,,, 30.

< 표 Ⅳ-18> 세종충남대학교병원의부진료권지역의입원실인원규모 ( 추정 ) () () (: ) 2018 607,802 121,550 294,539 1,619,231 92 1,431 62 3,302 2019 611,874 122,364 296,513 1,628,460 93 1,441 62 3,321 2020 615,974 123,184 298,499 1,637,742 93 1,451 63 3,340 2021 619,485 123,886 300,201 1,645,440 94 1,459 63 3,355 2022 623,016 124,593 301,912 1,653,173 94 1,467 63 3,371 2023 626,567 125,303 303,633 1,660,943 95 1,476 64 3,387 2024 630,139 126,017 305,363 1,668,750 95 1,484 64 3,403 2025 633,731 126,735 307,104 1,676,593 96 1,493 64 3,419 2026 636,582 127,306 308,486 1,682,629 96 1,499 65 3,431 2027 639,447 127,878 309,874 1,688,686 97 1,506 65 3,444 2028 642,324 128,454 311,269 1,694,765 97 1,513 65 3,456 2029 645,215 129,032 312,669 1,700,866 98 1,520 65 3,468 2030 648,118 129,613 314,076 1,706,990 98 1,526 66 3,481 2031 649,868 129,963 314,924 1,710,233 98 1,531 66 3,488 2032 651,623 130,313 315,775 1,713,482 99 1,535 66 3,494 2033 653,382 130,665 316,627 1,716,738 99 1,539 66 3,501 2034 655,146 131,018 317,482 1,720,000 99 1,543 66 3,507 2035 656,915 131,372 318,339 1,723,268 100 1,547 67 3,514 2036 657,244 131,438 318,498 1,722,751 100 1,548 67 3,513 2037 657,572 131,503 318,658 1,722,234 100 1,549 67 3,512 2038 657,901 131,569 318,817 1,721,717 100 1,549 67 3,511 2039 658,230 131,635 318,976 1,721,201 100 1,550 67 3,510 2040 658,559 131,701 319,136 1,720,684 100 1,551 67 3,509 2041 658,625 131,714 319,168 1,720,168 100 1,551 67 3,508 2042 658,691 131,727 319,200 1,719,652 100 1,551 67 3,507 2043 658,757 131,740 319,232 1,719,136 100 1,551 67 3,506 2044 658,823 131,753 319,264 1,718,620 100 1,552 67 3,505 2045 658,889 131,766 319,295 1,718,105 100 1,552 67 3,504 2046 658,954 131,780 319,327 1,717,589 100 1,552 67 3,503 2047 659,020 131,793 319,359 1,717,074 100 1,552 67 3,501

제 4 절병상수요추정.,.,.,..,., -., i k ( ), i.,. 연간입원환자수 인구 입원의료이용률 일 지역친화도 () i j 1, (Relevance Index, RI) j. 365.,.,

(Commitment Index, CI). 병상당연간수용능력 병상이용률 일 지역환자구성비, i (TBED). 지역친화도 병상이용률 일, 1,..., (RI) (CI).,,.. 33)

100%.,... 34) 인구명 입원의료이용률일 입원환자비중 요구되는병상수 병상이용률 일. < IV-12>, 2009 2012 4,,,. < IV-19>. < 표 IV-19> 지역별및전국의입원진료일수 (:, ) 2009 3,942,613 4,459,668 3,272,213 92,626,318 1,484,180 2,037,582 1,527,478 49,773,145 2010 4,356,533 4,861,715 3,562,749 103,638,285 1,503,664 2,075,514 1,549,528 50,515,666 2011 4,768,409 4,793,774 3,633,654 108,486,888 1,515,603 2,101,284 1,562,903 50,734,284 2012 4,745,559 5,152,620 3,893,407 114,280,728 1,524,583 2,028,777 1,565,628 50,948,272 1 3.052 2.390 2.370 2.144 :,.

, 2009 2012 1 0.23 0.24, 0.9. 2.39., 90%.. 100~150 70%, 90%. 95%., 90%. 2009 2012 4 ( ) 20.14% 46.43%., < -18>,,, ( )., 1, 2.39. < -20>., 2012 (), ( < -21> ). < -12> < -20>, 50, 33, 29 1,728, 1,148, 1,003 ( ), < -21>

. < 표 IV-20> 세종충남대학교병원소요병상수추정결과 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 2018 280 280 280 645 645 645 36 315 315 315 680 680 680 2019 295 295 295 681 681 681 36 331 331 331 717 717 717 2020 311 311 311 717 717 717 36 347 347 347 753 753 753 2021 327 327 327 754 754 754 36 362 362 362 789 789 789 2022 343 343 343 790 790 790 36 378 378 378 825 825 825 2023 358 358 358 826 826 826 37 394 394 394 861 861 861 2024 374 374 374 862 862 862 37 409 409 409 897 897 897 2025 390 390 390 898 898 898 37 425 425 425 934 934 934 2026 405 405 392 934 934 903 37 441 441 427 970 970 938 2027 421 421 394 970 970 908 37 456 456 429 1,006 1,006 943 2028 437 437 396 1,007 1,007 913 37 472 472 431 1,042 1,042 948 2029 452 452 398 1,043 1,043 917 37 488 488 433 1,078 1,078 953 2030 468 468 400 1,079 1,079 922 38 503 503 435 1,114 1,114 958 2031 484 475 402 1,115 1,095 927 38 519 510 438 1,150 1,131 962 2032 499 476 404 1,151 1,098 932 38 535 512 440 1,187 1,133 967 2033 515 478 406 1,187 1,101 937 38 550 513 442 1,223 1,136 972 2034 531 479 409 1,224 1,104 942 38 566 514 444 1,259 1,139 977 2035 546 480 411 1,260 1,107 947 38 582 516 446 1,295 1,142 982 2036 562 480 411 1,296 1,108 949 38 597 516 447 1,331 1,143 984 2037 578 481 412 1,332 1,108 950 38 613 516 448 1,367 1,143 986 2038 594 481 413 1,368 1,109 952 38 629 516 448 1,404 1,144 987 2039 609 481 414 1,404 1,109 954 38 645 516 449 1,440 1,145 989 2040 625 481 414 1,441 1,110 955 38 660 517 450 1,476 1,145 991 2041 641 482 415 1,477 1,110 957 38 676 517 451 1,512 1,146 993 2042 656 482 416 1,513 1,111 959 38 692 517 451 1,548 1,146 994 2043 672 482 417 1,549 1,111 961 38 707 517 452 1,584 1,147 996 2044 688 482 417 1,585 1,112 962 38 723 518 453 1,621 1,147 998 2045 703 483 418 1,621 1,112 964 38 739 518 454 1,657 1,148 999 2046 719 483 419 1,658 1,113 966 38 754 518 454 1,693 1,148 1,001 2047 735 483 420 1,694 1,114 968 38 770 518 455 1,729 1,149 1,003 : s1, s2, s3 < -12> 1, 2, 3.

< 표 Ⅳ-21> 시도별인구규모및보유병상수현황 (:, ) 1 2 (A) (C) ((B/A) 100) (B/C) 100) (B) 64,399 33,707 10,250 52.34% 0.33% 49,608 12,762 3,551 25.73% 0.36% 25,814 6,522 2,507 25.27% 0.26% 20,870 6,312 2,801 30.24% 0.23% 21,614 6,683 1,463 30.92% 0.46% 16,179 4,942 1,516 30.55% 0.33% 10,401 2,209 1,135 21.24% 0.19% 82,906 21,008 11,937 25.34% 0.18% 14,802 5,239 1,536 35.39% 0.34% 15,270 3,995 1,563 26.16% 0.26% 19,968 4,410 2,101 22.09% 0.21% 25,240 5,200 1,874 20.60% 0.28% 28,533 6,831 1,914 23.94% 0.36% 32,130 7,553 2,699 23.51% 0.28% 44,662 8,301 3,309 18.59% 0.25% 3,348 2,055 576 61.38% 0.36% 1 28.95% 0.27% 2( ) 24.99% 0.26% :,, 2012. < -20>, (~2020) 300,,.,,. 1, 4, 57

, 2 3 500.,,.,., 2~5.

제 5 절입원및외래환자수요추정,.. 연간입원환자수 병상수 병상이용률 일....... 500.. 5(2009-2013) 81.6%. < -13>, 6,,.,

,. 90%.. 3(2018-2020) 500 60% 300.,. < -22>. 2018 98,550, 2021 164,250..,..,.,,. 연외래환자수 연입원환자수추정치 입원대비외래환자비중,.., 2009~2010 2.18, 2011~2012 2.23, 2013 2.19. 5 2.2. <

-22>, 2018 217,028 2021 361,713. < 표 IV-22> 연간입원및외래환자수추정결과, 2018-2047 년 (:, ) 2018 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2019 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2020 500 60% 300 90% 98,550 217,028 2021 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2022 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2023 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2024 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2025 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2026 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2027 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2028 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2029 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2030 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2031 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2032 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2033 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2034 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2035 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2036 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2037 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2038 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2039 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2040 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2041 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2042 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2043 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2044 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2045 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2046 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713 2047 500 100% 500 90% 164,250 361,713

제 Ⅴ 장편익추정 제 1 절편익추정의개요 1. 편익의개요.,.., /....,.,,,.

. 2. 편익의종류와추정방식,. < -1> 12..,.. 35),.,.,.,,,.,,,,.,...

< 표 Ⅴ-1> 의료시설부문사업의편익추정항목비교 (2004) (2003) (2004) (2004) (2004) (2007) (2007) (2009) (2010) (2010) (2011) (2011) (2012),,, (),.

,.,.., 2012 7.,,,,,,..,,,,..... 2012 7.

,,.., 36) 28km, 41km, 47km,,., < -14> 3.,.

제 2 절응급사망자감소편익 1. 추정방법.,. = =.. 2. 응급사망자추이. 2002, 600.,.. 2005 (, ) (NEDIS).

...,..,,,..,.,,..,,. < -2> 3 37) 10 2009 2012 4,,.,,. 3 10 119.1,., 8(

, 38),,, 4 ) 97.9, 4(,, ) 91.6., ( ). 50km 30,.,. < -12>, (,, ) 1,,.

< 표 V-2> 주요지역의응급질환사망률통계 (2009년 -2012년 ) (: ) 10 2009 49,773,145 10,293 22,340 25,836 58,469 117.5 2010 50,515,666 10,100 23,402 26,514 60,016 118.8 2011 50,734,284 9,567 24,944 25,404 59,915 118.1 2012 50,948,272 9,911 26,442 25,744 62,097 121.9 4 119.1 2009 1,484,180 276 578 619 1,473 99.2 2010 1,503,664 252 596 652 1,500 99.8 2011 1,515,603 225 647 580 1,452 95.8 2012 1,524,583 259 570 645 1,474 96.7 4 97.9 2009 1,527,478 434 894 1,023 2,351 153.9 2010 1,549,528 400 867 975 2,242 144.7 2011 1,562,903 417 949 987 2,353 150.6 2012 1,565,628 426 960 984 2,370 151.4 4 150.1 2009 2,037,582 772 1,155 1,399 3,326 163.2 2010 2,075,514 672 1,123 1,549 3,344 161.1 2011 2,101,284 630 1,151 1,584 3,365 160.1 2012 2,028,777 630 1,225 1,261 3,116 153.6 4 159.5 2009 540,832 102 166 202 470 86.9 2010 557,673 108 156 258 522 93.6 2011 571,377 100 196 223 519 90.8 2012 581,988 97 226 231 554 95.2 4 91.6 2009 124,172 40 92 112 244 196.5 2010 124,930 40 106 103 249 199.3 2011 124,748 34 88 132 254 203.6 2012 117,298 43 96 96 235 200.3 4 199.9 2009 256,449 68 99 122 289 112.7 2010 265,191 54 105 138 297 112.0 2011 274,523 61 105 136 302 110.0 2012 280,490 61 135 123 319 113.7 4 112.1 2009 81,005 32 50 72 154 190.1 2010 81,871 26 54 77 157 191.8 2011 82,890 32 54 80 166 200.3 2012 113,117 36 78 79 193 170.6 4 188.2 : 2012. :, 2009-2012

< -12> 2018 2047 < V-2> 10.,, < V-2> 10 188.2, 30.,,,, ( ),., ( 18km. 45~48km.), ( 317, 10 ), 3 ( < V-2> ).. 10 3 4 199.9. < -3> 3 (,, ). 3 2018 359 2047 539 944, 243 263., 2018 602 2047 802 1,207.,.,..

< 표 V-3> 진료권응급질환사망자수추정 (2017-2046 년 ) (: ) 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2018 190,962 190,962 190,962 121,550 359 359 359 243 2019 201,666 201,666 201,666 122,364 380 380 380 245 2020 212,370 212,370 212,370 123,184 400 400 400 246 2021 223,074 223,074 223,074 123,886 420 420 420 248 2022 233,778 233,778 233,778 124,593 440 440 440 249 2023 244,482 244,482 244,482 125,303 460 460 460 250 2024 255,186 255,186 255,186 126,017 480 480 480 252 2025 265,890 265,890 265,890 126,735 500 500 500 253 2026 276,594 276,594 267,300 127,306 521 521 503 254 2027 287,298 287,298 268,716 127,878 541 541 506 256 2028 298,002 298,002 270,141 128,454 561 561 508 257 2029 308,706 308,706 271,572 129,032 581 581 511 258 2030 319,410 319,410 273,012 129,613 601 601 514 259 2031 330,114 324,220 274,459 129,963 621 610 517 260 2032 340,818 325,085 275,913 130,313 641 612 519 260 2033 351,522 325,952 277,376 130,665 662 613 522 261 2034 362,226 326,821 278,846 131,018 682 615 525 262 2035 372,930 327,693 280,324 131,372 702 617 528 263 2036 383,634 327,857 280,828 131,438 722 617 529 263 2037 394,338 328,021 281,334 131,503 742 617 529 263 2038 405,042 328,185 281,840 131,569 762 618 530 263 2039 415,746 328,349 282,347 131,635 782 618 531 263 2040 426,450 328,513 282,856 131,701 803 618 532 263 2041 437,154 328,677 283,365 131,714 823 619 533 263 2042 447,858 328,841 283,875 131,727 843 619 534 263 2043 458,562 329,006 284,386 131,740 863 619 535 263 2044 469,266 329,170 284,898 131,753 883 619 536 263 2045 479,970 329,335 285,410 131,766 903 620 537 263 2046 490,674 329,500 285,924 131,780 923 620 538 263 2047 501,378 329,664 286,439 131,780 944 620 539 263

3. 응급사망자감소분추정 < -3>.... KDI (2012.11). ( ),.. [ 그림 Ⅴ-1] 1k m2당응급병상수와인구 10 만명당외상사망률의상관관계 log(emergency Deaths per 100,000) 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5-6 -4-2 0 2 log(num of Emergency Beds per Square Kilometer) :, 2005-2012.

[ -1]. 2005-2012 1k log 10 (,, ) log.,.,, [ -1].. (2005-2012) 10 log, 1k log. (1), (2) (X). (3) (4) (δt) (ηs). (1) ln 외상사망률 ln 응급병상 (2) ln 외상사망률 ln 응급병상 (3) ln 외상사망률 ln 응급병상 (4) ln 외상사망률 ln 응급병상 (5) ln 외상사망률 ln 응급병상 ln 응급병상 시군구 시도 연도

< 표 Ⅴ-4> 응급병상수가외상사망률에미치는영향추정 : ln(10 ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) NO NO YES YES YES, NO NO NO YES YES ln() -0.1703*** -0.1204*** -0.1249*** -0.1259*** -0.0129 (0.0109) (0.0053) (0.0052) (0.0077) (0.0288) 0.0673*** 0.0649*** 0.0582** 0.0409*** (0.0044) (0.0049) (0.0043) (0.0044) 1.689*** 1.639*** 1.581*** 1.3842*** (0.3823) (0.2473) (0.1979) (0.1902) ln() * -0.0067 (0.0321) ln() * 0.0393 (0.0340) ln() * -0.0633** (0.0304) ln() * 0.0676 (0.0937) ln() * 0.0525 (0.0549) ln() * 0.0012 (0.0492) ln() * -0.2283*** (0.0271) ln() * -0.0703*** (0.0252) ln() * -0.2192*** (0.0436) ln() * -0.2429*** (0.0402) ln() * -0.2203*** (0.0393) ln() * -0.0838*** (0.0309) ln() * -0.1903*** (0.0450 ln() * -0.1304*** (0.0263) ln() * -0.1520* (0.0763) 4.0345*** -0.6840*** -0.7739*** 0.2408 0.9327*** (0.0143) (0.2833) (0.2699) (0.2734) (0.2563) 1,673 1,673 1,673 1,673 1,673 R-squared 0.5749 0.6551 0.6609 0.7384 0.7892 : 1).. 2) *, **, *** 10%, 5%, 1%.

< -4>, (1) 1% 0.17%. (2)-(4) 1% 0.12% 0.13%.. (5).,.,,,,,...,,., < -4>,. 예방가능사망자수 응급사망자수 응급사망률한계감소율 응급병상증가율. 0.2429., 1%, 0.2429%. 20, 20..

,... 4, 4.,.. 2012, 2012 191. < -13> < -14>, 23 39). < -13>, 191 40) (40), (24), (20) 41) 84. 23 27.38% 42), 3 6.65%(=27.38% 0.2429).,,

. 43)44) < 표 V-5> 예방가능한응급사망환자수추정결과 + (1) (6.65% ) (: ) 1 2 3 1 2 3 2018 602 602 602-40.06-40.06-40.06 2019 624 624 624-41.51-41.51-41.51 2020 646 646 646-42.96-42.96-42.96 2021 667 667 667-44.39-44.39-44.39 2022 689 689 689-45.83-45.83-45.83 2023 711 711 711-47.26-47.26-47.26 2024 732 732 732-48.70-48.70-48.70 2025 754 754 754-50.13-50.13-50.13 2026 775 775 758-51.55-51.55-50.38 2027 796 796 761-52.96-52.96-50.64 2028 818 818 765-54.38-54.38-50.89 2029 839 839 769-55.80-55.80-51.15 2030 860 860 773-57.21-57.21-51.40 2031 881 870 776-58.60-57.86-51.63 2032 902 872 780-59.98-58.02-51.86 2033 923 875 783-61.37-58.17-52.09 2034 944 877 787-62.76-58.33-52.32 2035 964 879 790-64.15-58.48-52.55 2036 985 880 791-65.49-58.51-52.63 2037 1,005 880 792-66.84-58.54-52.70 2038 1,025 881 793-68.19-58.57-52.77 2039 1,046 881 795-69.54-58.60-52.84 2040 1,066 882 796-70.89-58.63-52.91 2041 1,086 882 797-72.23-58.65-52.98 2042 1,106 882 798-73.57-58.67-53.05 2043 1,126 883 799-74.91-58.70-53.11 2044 1,147 883 800-76.25-58.72-53.18 2045 1,167 883 801-77.60-58.74-53.24 2046 1,187 884 802-78.94-58.76-53.31 2047 1,207 884 803-80.28-58.78-53.37

< -5> < -3>., 2018 40, 2047 80. 4. 응급사망비용추정 37 (2018 ) 37. 1. KDI (2012.11),, (PGS: Pain, Grief and Suffering)..,. KDI, 18~75. 5.5%. 연령 기대여명 연령 에서의연평균임금 할인율 [ -2] < -6> 2010. 31 4, 31.

[ 그림 Ⅴ-2] 연령별평생기대임금의현재가치추정결과 Value of Life (Mil. KRW) 0 100 200 300 400 0 20 40 60 80 100 Age :. 2010.

< 표 Ⅴ-6> 연령별평생기대임금의현재가치추정결과 (: ) () 0 178.19 1 186.63 26 407.69 51 260.08 76 28.53 2 195.32 27 411.95 52 246.95 77 24.79 3 204.26 28 415.26 53 233.80 78 21.39 4 213.43 29 417.72 54 220.72 79 18.87 5 222.81 30 419.29 55 207.75 80 16.11 6 232.39 31 419.95 56 194.97 81 14.12 7 242.14 32 419.67 57 182.87 82 11.91 8 252.04 33 418.45 58 170.63 83 10.39 9 262.06 34 416.27 59 158.72 84 8.64 10 272.16 35 413.13 60 147.18 85 7.49 11 282.31 36 409.05 61 136.05 86 6.12 12 292.47 37 404.04 62 125.34 87 5.28 13 302.60 38 398.11 63 115.09 88 4.22 14 312.64 39 391.31 64 105.87 89 3.62 15 322.56 40 383.66 65 96.61 90 3.09 16 332.30 41 375.22 66 87.85 91 2.40 17 341.81 42 366.02 67 79.59 92 2.04 18 351.03 43 356.13 68 71.82 93 1.73 19 359.91 44 345.59 69 65.14 94 1.46 20 368.39 45 334.49 70 58.39 95 1.08 21 376.41 46 322.88 71 52.11 96 0.91 22 383.91 47 310.82 72 46.29 97 0.76 23 390.85 48 298.75 73 41.52 98 0.53 24 397.16 49 286.05 74 36.60 99 0.33 25 402.79 50 273.14 75 32.08 100 0.15 :.

< 표 Ⅴ-7> 응급사망에따른임금손실의현재가치추정 (2010 년가격 ) 2005~2010 () (%) 377,544 100.00 1 178.19 541 0.14 0.26 1-9 223.45 2,335 0.62 1.38 10-19 316.98 5,420 1.44 4.55 20-29 397.21 16,876 4.47 17.76 30-39 410.93 24,855 6.58 27.05 40-49 337.96 41,768 11.06 37.39 50-59 214.97 45,703 12.11 26.02 60-69 103.05 61,208 16.21 16.71 70-79 36.06 90,376 23.94 8.63 80 4.87 88,462 23.43 1.14 140.89 < -6>. < -7> 2005~2010,, 3,. 1, 1 4,089. ( ), 3,.,. 2009 2012, ( ).,

. < V-8>. 15~60 63.4%(2012 ) 68.5%, 7 (,,,,,, ) 70.7%. 3,. < 표 V-8> 세종시의인구구성 (2009 년 -2012 년 ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 0-19 21.51% 21.43% 20.71% 21.89% 20-59 57.23% 57.07% 57.60% 57.86% 60+ 21.26% 21.50% 21.69% 20.25% (15-60) 63.03% 63.31% 63.44% 63.39% 0-19 25.68% 24.49% 24.42% 23.82% 20-59 62.25% 61.10% 62.59% 62.54% 60+ 12.07% 14.42% 12.99% 13.64% (15-60) 69.86% 67.52% 70.19% 70.02% 0-19 23.58% 22.93% 22.39% 21.82% 20-59 61.55% 61.66% 61.81% 61.68% 60+ 14.87% 15.41% 15.81% 16.50% 68.56% 68.72% 68.80% 68.53% (15-60), 3, 7., < V-7> 2010., < V-8> 68.53% 70.02%, 2.2%. < V-7> 2012, 2.2%., 2010 100, 2012

106.3 45), 2012 1 5306(140.89 1.063 1.022=153.061). (PGS: Pain, Grief and Suffering).. 1 PGS 2009 1 1,607, 3,370.. 1 PGS PGS PGS 8,237., 2012 1 PGS 9,011.3(8,237 1.094=9,011.3). PGS, 1 2 4,317.3(243,173). 5. 응급사망자감소편익 < -9> < -5> < -7> 1. PGS. 응급사망감소편익 = 예방가능사망자수 응급사망비용, 2018 97 4, 2047 129 8 195 2.

< 표 V-9> 응급사망자감소에따른편익추정 ( 결과 ) (1) (6.65% ) 1 2 3 (: ) 2018 9,742.1 9,742.1 9,742.1 2019 10,094.3 10,094.3 10,094.3 2020 10,446.6 10,446.6 10,446.6 2021 10,795.1 10,795.1 10,795.1 2022 11,143.7 11,143.7 11,143.7 2023 11,492.5 11,492.5 11,492.5 2024 11,841.4 11,841.4 11,841.4 2025 12,190.4 12,190.4 12,190.4 2026 12,534.7 12,534.7 12,251.7 2027 12,879.0 12,879.0 12,313.4 2028 13,223.4 13,223.4 12,375.3 2029 13,567.9 13,567.9 12,437.6 2030 13,912.5 13,912.5 12,500.2 2031 14,249.6 14,070.2 12,555.5 2032 14,586.7 14,107.8 12,611.2 2033 14,923.9 14,145.6 12,667.1 2034 15,261.1 14,183.5 12,723.2 2035 15,598.4 14,221.4 12,779.6 2036 15,926.3 14,228.5 12,797.1 2037 16,254.2 14,235.7 12,814.6 2038 16,582.1 14,242.8 12,832.2 2039 16,910.1 14,249.9 12,849.7 2040 17,238.0 14,257.0 12,867.3 2041 17,564.2 14,262.4 12,883.2 2042 17,890.5 14,267.9 12,899.2 2043 18,216.7 14,273.3 12,915.2 2044 18,542.9 14,278.7 12,931.2 2045 18,869.2 14,284.2 12,947.2 2046 19,195.4 14,289.6 12,963.3 2047 19,521.2 14,294.6 12,978.9

제 3 절교통비및시간비용절감편익 1. 추정방법,... 교통비절감편익 기존이용의료시설소재지 교통수단 전환환자수 동반자비중 평균교통비,.,. 시간절감편익 전환환자수 동반자비중 왕복시간 시간가치 기존이용의료시설소재지,.,.

2. 교통비절감편익의추정,,.,,.,.,,,,.,,,. < -18>,,, < -18> 4. 46) 500 (2020) 300,. 가. 입원환자및동반자, 입원환자방문객의경우,. 2012 2012 1.

< 표 V-10> 세종충남대학교병원예상진료지역의 2012 년급여형태별요양급여실적 () () (/) () () () () 2,048,147 400,578 0.196 5,074,704 7,600,834 730,016 596,445 : (2012),, ( 2020) / (2011, 2012 57.0%), / (2021 ) (2011, 2012 41.4%),. < 표 V-11> 2012년건강보험통계연보의입원청구건수 (:, %) 2011 2011 2012 2012 11,062,559 100.0 11,981,351 100.0 1,921,685 17.4 2,045,910 17.1 2,722,229 24.6 2,843,576 23.7 4,387,642 39.7 5,029,918 42.0 1,862,841 16.8 1,854,955 15.5 4,620 0.0 4,912 0.0 19 0.0 60 0.0 609 0.0 1,474 0.0 3,133 0.0 3,257 0.0 150,624 1.4 185,217 1.5 9,157 0.1 12,072 0.1 : (2011, 2012)

< 표 V-12> 세종충남대학교병원예상진료지역의예상시장점유율 (:, %) * 152 27.99 91 16.76 300 55.25 543 100.00 : * 2011 204, 2012 152. : 2013..,,,,, (RI: Relevance Index)., 2012 7 RI. < 표 V-13> 지역별지역친화도 (RI, 유출입지표 ) (: %) (RI) 28.57 24.41 16.65 10.23 7.27 : (2010),,, (, ).,,.

< 표 V-14> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 에서주요지역간거리 () (: ) 139.36 38.34 20.81 36.13 11.01 128.35 27.33 9.8 25.12 : (www.naver.com) ()., 2007 < V-15>, 80km 2012. < 표 V-15> 차량운행비용 (2007 년기준 ) (: /km) 41.38 4.39 5.39 18.26 91.76 161.18 2007 (=100), 2012 117.7, 2012 189.71/km. < 표 V-16> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 과주요지역간자가용운행에따른비용 (: ) 52,876 14,547 7,896 13,708 : km (100%).,,.

지역별인구규모 연평균입원횟수 상급종합병원이용비중 예상시장점유율 왕복거리 당차량운행비용 자가용이용비율 < V-17> ( < -12>)., < V-10> (0.196/ ).,., < V-11>, ( 2020 ) / (2011, 2012 57.0%), /(2021 ) (2011, 2012 41.4%),.

< 표 V-17> 예상진료권의인구추이및입원환자수 (: ) s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 2018 190,962 190,962 190,962 37,429 37,429 37,429 21,334 21,334 21,334 2019 201,666 201,666 201,666 39,527 39,527 39,527 22,530 22,530 22,530 2020 212,370 212,370 212,370 41,625 41,625 41,625 23,726 23,726 23,726 2021 223,074 223,074 223,074 43,723 43,723 43,723 18,101 18,101 18,101 2022 233,778 233,778 233,778 45,821 45,821 45,821 18,970 18,970 18,970 2023 244,482 244,482 244,482 47,919 47,919 47,919 19,838 19,838 19,838 2024 255,186 255,186 255,186 50,017 50,017 50,017 20,707 20,707 20,707 2025 265,890 265,890 265,890 52,115 52,115 52,115 21,575 21,575 21,575 2026 276,594 276,594 267,300 54,213 54,213 52,391 22,444 22,444 21,690 2027 287,298 287,298 268,716 56,310 56,310 52,668 23,313 23,313 21,805 2028 298,002 298,002 270,141 58,408 58,408 52,948 24,181 24,181 21,920 2029 308,706 308,706 271,572 60,506 60,506 53,228 25,050 25,050 22,036 2030 319,410 319,410 273,012 62,604 62,604 53,510 25,918 25,918 22,153 2031 330,114 324,220 274,459 64,702 63,547 53,794 26,787 26,308 22,271 2032 340,818 325,085 275,913 66,800 63,717 54,079 27,655 26,379 22,389 2033 351,522 325,952 277,376 68,898 63,887 54,366 28,524 26,449 22,507 2034 362,226 326,821 278,846 70,996 64,057 54,654 29,393 26,520 22,627 2035 372,930 327,693 280,324 73,094 64,228 54,943 30,261 26,590 22,747 2036 383,634 327,857 280,828 75,192 64,260 55,042 31,130 26,604 22,788 2037 394,338 328,021 281,334 77,290 64,292 55,141 31,998 26,617 22,829 2038 405,042 328,185 281,840 79,388 64,324 55,241 32,867 26,630 22,870 2039 415,746 328,349 282,347 81,486 64,356 55,340 33,735 26,644 22,911 2040 426,450 328,513 282,856 83,584 64,389 55,440 34,604 26,657 22,952 2041 437,154 328,677 283,365 85,682 64,421 55,539 35,472 26,670 22,993 2042 447,858 328,841 283,875 87,780 64,453 55,639 36,341 26,684 23,035 2043 458,562 329,006 284,386 89,878 64,485 55,740 37,210 26,697 23,076 2044 469,266 329,170 284,898 91,976 64,517 55,840 38,078 26,710 23,118 2045 479,970 329,335 285,410 94,074 64,550 55,940 38,947 26,724 23,159 2046 490,674 329,500 285,924 96,172 64,582 56,041 39,815 26,737 23,201 2047 501,378 329,664 286,439 98,270 64,614 56,142 40,684 26,750 23,243, (< V-12> 55.25%).,,,

( ) (RI)( < V-13>). < 표 V-18> 세종충남대학교병원으로전환하는입원환자수추계 (: ) (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 11,787 11,787 11,787 857 1,206 1,963 3,368 857 1,206 1,963 3,368 857 1,206 1,963 3,368 2019 12,448 12,448 12,448 905 1,273 2,073 3,556 905 1,273 2,073 3,556 905 1,273 2,073 3,556 2020 13,109 13,109 13,109 953 1,341 2,183 3,745 953 1,341 2,183 3,745 953 1,341 2,183 3,745 2021 18,101 18,101 18,101 1,316 1,852 3,014 5,171 1,316 1,852 3,014 5,171 1,316 1,852 3,014 5,171 2022 18,970 18,970 18,970 1,379 1,941 3,158 5,420 1,379 1,941 3,158 5,420 1,379 1,941 3,158 5,420 2023 19,838 19,838 19,838 1,442 2,029 3,303 5,668 1,442 2,029 3,303 5,668 1,442 2,029 3,303 5,668 2024 20,707 20,707 20,707 1,505 2,118 3,448 5,916 1,505 2,118 3,448 5,916 1,505 2,118 3,448 5,916 2025 21,575 21,575 21,575 1,569 2,207 3,592 6,164 1,569 2,207 3,592 6,164 1,569 2,207 3,592 6,164 2026 22,444 22,444 21,690 1,632 2,296 3,737 6,412 1,632 2,296 3,737 6,412 1,577 2,219 3,611 6,197 2027 23,313 23,313 21,805 1,695 2,385 3,882 6,660 1,695 2,385 3,882 6,660 1,585 2,231 3,630 6,230 2028 24,181 24,181 21,920 1,758 2,474 4,026 6,909 1,758 2,474 4,026 6,909 1,594 2,242 3,650 6,263 2029 25,050 25,050 22,036 1,821 2,563 4,171 7,157 1,821 2,563 4,171 7,157 1,602 2,254 3,669 6,296 2030 25,918 25,918 22,153 1,884 2,651 4,315 7,405 1,884 2,651 4,315 7,405 1,611 2,266 3,689 6,329 2031 26,787 26,308 22,271 1,947 2,740 4,460 7,653 1,913 2,691 4,380 7,516 1,619 2,278 3,708 6,363 2032 27,655 26,379 22,389 2,011 2,829 4,605 7,901 1,918 2,699 4,392 7,536 1,628 2,290 3,728 6,396 2033 28,524 26,449 22,507 2,074 2,918 4,749 8,149 1,923 2,706 4,404 7,556 1,636 2,303 3,747 6,430 2034 29,393 26,520 22,627 2,137 3,007 4,894 8,397 1,928 2,713 4,416 7,577 1,645 2,315 3,767 6,464 2035 30,261 26,590 22,747 2,200 3,096 5,038 8,646 1,933 2,720 4,427 7,597 1,654 2,327 3,787 6,499 2036 31,130 26,604 22,788 2,263 3,185 5,183 8,894 1,934 2,722 4,429 7,601 1,657 2,331 3,794 6,510 2037 31,998 26,617 22,829 2,326 3,273 5,328 9,142 1,935 2,723 4,432 7,604 1,660 2,335 3,801 6,522 2038 32,867 26,630 22,870 2,389 3,362 5,472 9,390 1,936 2,724 4,434 7,608 1,663 2,340 3,808 6,534 2039 33,735 26,644 22,911 2,453 3,451 5,617 9,638 1,937 2,726 4,436 7,612 1,666 2,344 3,815 6,546 2040 34,604 26,657 22,952 2,516 3,540 5,762 9,886 1,938 2,727 4,438 7,616 1,669 2,348 3,822 6,557 2041 35,472 26,670 22,993 2,579 3,629 5,906 10,134 1,939 2,728 4,441 7,620 1,672 2,352 3,828 6,569 2042 36,341 26,684 23,035 2,642 3,718 6,051 10,383 1,940 2,730 4,443 7,623 1,675 2,356 3,835 6,581 2043 37,210 26,697 23,076 2,705 3,807 6,195 10,631 1,941 2,731 4,445 7,627 1,678 2,361 3,842 6,593 2044 38,078 26,710 23,118 2,768 3,895 6,340 10,879 1,942 2,732 4,447 7,631 1,681 2,365 3,849 6,605 2045 38,947 26,724 23,159 2,831 3,984 6,485 11,127 1,943 2,734 4,449 7,635 1,684 2,369 3,856 6,617 2046 39,815 26,737 23,201 2,895 4,073 6,629 11,375 1,944 2,735 4,452 7,639 1,687 2,373 3,863 6,629 2047 40,684 26,750 23,243 2,958 4,162 6,774 11,623 1,945 2,737 4,454 7,643 1,690 2,378 3,870 6,640 < V-18> < V-16>

< V-19>. < 표 V-19> 세종충남대학교병원의건립에따른입원환자의교통비절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 45.3 17.5 15.5 46.2 45.3 17.5 15.5 46.2 45.3 17.5 15.5 46.2 124.5 124.5 124.5 2019 47.9 18.5 16.4 48.8 47.9 18.5 16.4 48.8 47.9 18.5 16.4 48.8 131.5 131.5 131.5 2020 50.4 19.5 17.2 51.3 50.4 19.5 17.2 51.3 50.4 19.5 17.2 51.3 138.5 138.5 138.5 2021 69.6 26.9 23.8 70.9 69.6 26.9 23.8 70.9 69.6 26.9 23.8 70.9 191.2 191.2 191.2 2022 72.9 28.2 24.9 74.3 72.9 28.2 24.9 74.3 72.9 28.2 24.9 74.3 200.4 200.4 200.4 2023 76.3 29.5 26.1 77.7 76.3 29.5 26.1 77.7 76.3 29.5 26.1 77.7 209.6 209.6 209.6 2024 79.6 30.8 27.2 81.1 79.6 30.8 27.2 81.1 79.6 30.8 27.2 81.1 218.7 218.7 218.7 2025 82.9 32.1 28.4 84.5 82.9 32.1 28.4 84.5 82.9 32.1 28.4 84.5 227.9 227.9 227.9 2026 86.3 33.4 29.5 87.9 86.3 33.4 29.5 87.9 83.4 32.3 28.5 84.9 237.1 237.1 229.1 2027 89.6 34.7 30.6 91.3 89.6 34.7 30.6 91.3 83.8 32.4 28.7 85.4 246.3 246.3 230.3 2028 93.0 36.0 31.8 94.7 93.0 36.0 31.8 94.7 84.3 32.6 28.8 85.8 255.4 255.4 231.6 2029 96.3 37.3 32.9 98.1 96.3 37.3 32.9 98.1 84.7 32.8 29.0 86.3 264.6 264.6 232.8 2030 99.6 38.6 34.1 101.5 99.6 38.6 34.1 101.5 85.2 33.0 29.1 86.8 273.8 273.8 234.0 2031 103.0 39.9 35.2 104.9 101.1 39.2 34.6 103.0 85.6 33.1 29.3 87.2 283.0 277.9 235.3 2032 106.3 41.2 36.4 108.3 101.4 39.3 34.7 103.3 86.1 33.3 29.4 87.7 292.1 278.6 236.5 2033 109.6 42.4 37.5 111.7 101.7 39.4 34.8 103.6 86.5 33.5 29.6 88.1 301.3 279.4 237.8 2034 113.0 43.7 38.6 115.1 101.9 39.5 34.9 103.9 87.0 33.7 29.7 88.6 310.5 280.1 239.0 2035 116.3 45.0 39.8 118.5 102.2 39.6 35.0 104.1 87.4 33.9 29.9 89.1 319.7 280.9 240.3 2036 119.7 46.3 40.9 121.9 102.3 39.6 35.0 104.2 87.6 33.9 30.0 89.2 328.8 281.0 240.7 2037 123.0 47.6 42.1 125.3 102.3 39.6 35.0 104.2 87.8 34.0 30.0 89.4 338.0 281.2 241.1 2038 126.3 48.9 43.2 128.7 102.4 39.6 35.0 104.3 87.9 34.0 30.1 89.6 347.2 281.3 241.6 2039 129.7 50.2 44.4 132.1 102.4 39.6 35.0 104.3 88.1 34.1 30.1 89.7 356.4 281.4 242.0 2040 133.0 51.5 45.5 135.5 102.5 39.7 35.0 104.4 88.2 34.2 30.2 89.9 365.5 281.6 242.4 2041 136.4 52.8 46.6 138.9 102.5 39.7 35.1 104.5 88.4 34.2 30.2 90.1 374.7 281.7 242.9 2042 139.7 54.1 47.8 142.3 102.6 39.7 35.1 104.5 88.5 34.3 30.3 90.2 383.9 281.9 243.3 2043 143.0 55.4 48.9 145.7 102.6 39.7 35.1 104.6 88.7 34.3 30.3 90.4 393.1 282.0 243.8 2044 146.4 56.7 50.1 149.1 102.7 39.7 35.1 104.6 88.9 34.4 30.4 90.5 402.2 282.1 244.2 2045 149.7 58.0 51.2 152.5 102.7 39.8 35.1 104.7 89.0 34.5 30.4 90.7 411.4 282.3 244.6 2046 153.1 59.3 52.3 155.9 102.8 39.8 35.2 104.7 89.2 34.5 30.5 90.9 420.6 282.4 245.1 2047 156.4 60.5 53.5 159.3 102.8 39.8 35.2 104.8 89.3 34.6 30.6 91.0 429.8 282.6 245.5,.. 1 1

. 2011 2012, 13.87.,,. < V-20>. < 표 V-20> 주요지역 - 충남간 / 내교통수단별기종점하루평균통행량 - - - - - - (:, %) - - 15,626 26.5 13,380 0.6 622 0.0 4,790 0.2 21,928 37.2 39.6 77,690 3.4 20.6 5,873 0.3 10.5 53,597 2.4 40.2 33,464 56.7 60.4 299,255 13.3 79.4 50,222 2.2 89.5 79,686 3.5 59.8 : (2011) 2010,,, km,,,,. < 표 V-21> 예상진료권 ( 세종시 ) 과주요지역간시외버스요금 2 2 8,600 17,200 2,350 4,000 8,000 2,400 3,000 6,000 2,350 2,100 4,200 2,400 (: )

자가용이용편익 입원연인원 왕복거리차이 차량운행비용 자가용이용비율 버스이용편익 입원연인원 버스이용비율 교통비차액 < 표 V-22> 세종충남대학교병원건립에따른입원환자방문객의교통비절감편익추정결과 (s1) (s2) (s3) (: ) s1 s2 s3 2018 355 139 91 269 355 139 91 269 355 139 91 269 854 854 854 2019 375 147 96 284 375 147 96 284 375 147 96 284 902 902 902 2020 394 155 102 299 394 155 102 299 394 155 102 299 949 949 949 2021 545 214 140 413 545 214 140 413 545 214 140 413 1,311 1,311 1,311 2022 571 224 147 432 571 224 147 432 571 224 147 432 1,374 1,374 1,374 2023 597 234 154 452 597 234 154 452 597 234 154 452 1,437 1,437 1,437 2024 623 244 160 472 623 244 160 472 623 244 160 472 1,500 1,500 1,500 2025 649 255 167 492 649 255 167 492 649 255 167 492 1,563 1,563 1,563 2026 675 265 174 512 675 265 174 512 653 256 168 494 1,626 1,626 1,571 2027 701 275 181 531 701 275 181 531 656 257 169 497 1,689 1,689 1,579 2028 728 285 187 551 728 285 187 551 660 259 170 500 1,751 1,751 1,588 2029 754 296 194 571 754 296 194 571 663 260 171 502 1,814 1,814 1,596 2030 780 306 201 591 780 306 201 591 667 261 172 505 1,877 1,877 1,605 2031 806 316 208 611 792 310 204 600 670 263 173 508 1,940 1,906 1,613 2032 832 326 214 630 794 311 204 601 674 264 174 510 2,003 1,911 1,622 2033 858 337 221 650 796 312 205 603 677 266 174 513 2,066 1,916 1,630 2034 884 347 228 670 798 313 206 604 681 267 175 516 2,129 1,921 1,639 2035 910 357 235 690 800 314 206 606 684 268 176 518 2,192 1,926 1,648 2036 937 367 241 710 800 314 206 606 686 269 177 519 2,255 1,927 1,651 2037 963 378 248 729 801 314 206 607 687 269 177 520 2,318 1,928 1,653 2038 989 388 255 749 801 314 206 607 688 270 177 521 2,381 1,929 1,656 2039 1,015 398 261 769 802 314 207 607 689 270 178 522 2,443 1,930 1,659 2040 1,041 408 268 789 802 315 207 608 691 271 178 523 2,506 1,931 1,662 2041 1,067 419 275 808 802 315 207 608 692 271 178 524 2,569 1,932 1,665 2042 1,093 429 282 828 803 315 207 608 693 272 179 525 2,632 1,933 1,668 2043 1,120 439 288 848 803 315 207 608 694 272 179 526 2,695 1,934 1,671 2044 1,146 449 295 868 804 315 207 609 696 273 179 527 2,758 1,935 1,674 2045 1,172 460 302 888 804 315 207 609 697 273 180 528 2,821 1,936 1,677 2046 1,198 470 309 907 804 316 207 609 698 274 180 529 2,884 1,937 1,680 2047 1,224 480 315 927 805 316 207 610 699 274 180 530 2,947 1,938 1,683

나. 외래환자및동반자의경우. 2012 1. < V-23>, 2012 2,048,147 35,730,094 1 17.45. < 표 V-23> 진료권의 2012 년외래환자 1 인당청구건수 (:, ) 1 2,048,147 35,730,094 17.45 : (2012), 2011 2012. 2011 2012., 41.7%, 39.1%, 80%. 9.5%., 2018 2020 5.7%, 2021 15.1%.

< 표 V-24> 의료기관별외래청구건수현황 (:, %) 2011 2012 765,657,760 100.0 838,534,612 100.0 25,011,435 3.3 35,432,279 4.2 38,109,031 5.0 53,017,216 6.3 32,959,412 4.3 59,327,056 7.1 509,004,867 66.5 523,035,920 62.4 1,996,544 0.3 2,746,854 0.3 52,151,404 6.8 52,957,057 6.3-0.0 - - 14,574,650 1.9 15,836,557 1.9 1,316,768 0.2 3,097,367 0.3 90,533,649 11.8 93,084,303 11.1 : (2011, 2012) < V-12>, 55.25%,..,,,.

< 표 V-25> 세종충남대학교병원으로전환하는외래연환자수추계 (: ) s1 s2 s3 s1 s2 s3 2018 190,962 190,962 190,962 104,942 104,942 104,942 2019 201,666 201,666 201,666 110,825 110,825 110,825 2020 212,370 212,370 212,370 116,707 116,707 116,707 2021 223,074 223,074 223,074 324,754 324,754 324,754 2022 233,778 233,778 233,778 340,337 340,337 340,337 2023 244,482 244,482 244,482 355,920 355,920 355,920 2024 255,186 255,186 255,186 371,503 371,503 371,503 2025 265,890 265,890 265,890 387,086 387,086 387,086 2026 276,594 276,594 267,300 402,669 402,669 389,137 2027 287,298 287,298 268,716 418,252 418,252 391,200 2028 298,002 298,002 270,141 433,835 433,835 393,273 2029 308,706 308,706 271,572 449,418 449,418 395,358 2030 319,410 319,410 273,012 465,001 465,001 397,453 2031 330,114 324,220 274,459 480,584 472,002 399,559 2032 340,818 325,085 275,913 496,167 473,261 401,677 2033 351,522 325,952 277,376 511,750 474,524 403,806 2034 362,226 326,821 278,846 527,333 475,789 405,946 2035 372,930 327,693 280,324 542,916 477,058 408,098 2036 383,634 327,857 280,828 558,499 477,297 408,832 2037 394,338 328,021 281,334 574,082 477,536 409,568 2038 405,042 328,185 281,840 589,665 477,774 410,305 2039 415,746 328,349 282,347 605,248 478,013 411,044 2040 426,450 328,513 282,856 620,831 478,252 411,784 2041 437,154 328,677 283,365 636,414 478,491 412,525 2042 447,858 328,841 283,875 651,997 478,731 413,268 2043 458,562 329,006 284,386 667,580 478,970 414,012 2044 469,266 329,170 284,898 683,163 479,210 414,757 2045 479,970 329,335 285,410 698,746 479,449 415,503 2046 490,674 329,500 285,924 714,329 479,689 416,251 2047 501,378 329,664 286,439 729,912 479,929 417,000 :,, < V-26> RI. < V-20>. 자가용이용편익 전환외래연인원 왕복거리차이 차량운행비용 자가용이용비율 버스이용편익 전환외래연인원 동행자비율 명 버스이용비율 교통비차액

< V-25> < V-13>, < V-14>, < V-20>, < V-21> < V-26>. < 표 V-26> 전환된외래연환자와동반자의교통비절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 292 107 68 203 292 107 68 203 292 107 68 203 671 671 671 2019 308 113 72 215 308 113 72 215 308 113 72 215 708 708 708 2020 324 119 76 226 324 119 76 226 324 119 76 226 746 746 746 2021 903 331 212 630 903 331 212 630 903 331 212 630 2,075 2,075 2,075 2022 946 347 222 660 946 347 222 660 946 347 222 660 2,175 2,175 2,175 2023 989 363 232 690 989 363 232 690 989 363 232 690 2,274 2,274 2,274 2024 1,033 379 242 720 1,033 379 242 720 1,033 379 242 720 2,374 2,374 2,374 2025 1,076 395 253 750 1,076 395 253 750 1,076 395 253 750 2,473 2,473 2,473 2026 1,119 410 263 781 1,119 410 263 781 1,082 397 254 754 2,573 2,573 2,487 2027 1,163 426 273 811 1,163 426 273 811 1,087 399 255 758 2,673 2,673 2,500 2028 1,206 442 283 841 1,206 442 283 841 1,093 401 257 762 2,772 2,772 2,513 2029 1,249 458 293 871 1,249 458 293 871 1,099 403 258 766 2,872 2,872 2,526 2030 1,293 474 303 901 1,293 474 303 901 1,105 405 259 770 2,971 2,971 2,540 2031 1,336 490 314 932 1,312 481 308 915 1,111 407 261 775 3,071 3,016 2,553 2032 1,379 506 324 962 1,316 482 309 917 1,117 409 262 779 3,170 3,024 2,567 2033 1,422 522 334 992 1,319 484 310 920 1,122 412 263 783 3,270 3,032 2,580 2034 1,466 538 344 1,022 1,323 485 310 922 1,128 414 265 787 3,370 3,040 2,594 2035 1,509 553 354 1,052 1,326 486 311 925 1,134 416 266 791 3,469 3,048 2,608 2036 1,552 569 364 1,083 1,327 487 311 925 1,136 417 267 793 3,569 3,050 2,612 2037 1,596 585 375 1,113 1,327 487 312 926 1,138 417 267 794 3,668 3,051 2,617 2038 1,639 601 385 1,143 1,328 487 312 926 1,141 418 268 795 3,768 3,053 2,622 2039 1,682 617 395 1,173 1,329 487 312 927 1,143 419 268 797 3,867 3,054 2,627 2040 1,726 633 405 1,203 1,329 487 312 927 1,145 420 269 798 3,967 3,056 2,631 2041 1,769 649 415 1,234 1,330 488 312 928 1,147 420 269 800 4,067 3,057 2,636 2042 1,812 665 425 1,264 1,331 488 312 928 1,149 421 270 801 4,166 3,059 2,641 2043 1,856 680 436 1,294 1,331 488 312 928 1,151 422 270 803 4,266 3,061 2,645 2044 1,899 696 446 1,324 1,332 488 313 929 1,153 423 271 804 4,365 3,062 2,650 2045 1,942 712 456 1,354 1,333 489 313 929 1,155 424 271 805 4,465 3,064 2,655 2046 1,986 728 466 1,385 1,333 489 313 930 1,157 424 272 807 4,564 3,065 2,660 2047 2,029 744 476 1,415 1,334 489 313 930 1,159 425 272 808 4,664 3,067 2,665

3. 이동시간비용절감편익의추정 가. 입원환자및동반자, 입원환자방문객의경우..,., 1 ( 2.0). < V-27>,,. < 표 V-27> 세종충남대학교병원예정지로부터각지역까지의이동시간 (: ) 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 : (www.naver.com). (KDI, 2012) 7,237(2010 ) 7,692.9(=7,237 1.063), 2.2% 47) 7,862.

< 표 V-28> 개인별시간가치 2010 2012 ( ) 7,236.9 7,692.9 ( ) 7,862.1 : 1),, 2012.11. 2) (: ). 입원환자 동반자의이동시간절감편익 전환입원실인원 동행자비율 자가용이동시간차이 시간가치 < V-18> < V-29>.

< 표 V-29> 입원환자및동반자의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) / / / (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 86 27 12 64 86 27 12 64 86 27 12 64 189 189 189 2019 91 28 13 67 91 28 13 67 91 28 13 67 199 199 199 2020 96 30 14 71 96 30 14 71 96 30 14 71 210 210 210 2021 132 41 19 98 132 41 19 98 132 41 19 98 290 290 290 2022 139 43 20 102 139 43 20 102 139 43 20 102 304 304 304 2023 145 45 21 107 145 45 21 107 145 45 21 107 318 318 318 2024 151 47 22 112 151 47 22 112 151 47 22 112 331 331 331 2025 158 49 23 116 158 49 23 116 158 49 23 116 345 345 345 2026 164 51 24 121 164 51 24 121 159 49 23 117 359 359 347 2027 171 52 24 126 171 52 24 126 160 49 23 118 373 373 349 2028 177 54 25 130 177 54 25 130 160 49 23 118 387 387 351 2029 183 56 26 135 183 56 26 135 161 50 23 119 401 401 353 2030 190 58 27 140 190 58 27 140 162 50 23 119 415 415 355 2031 196 60 28 144 192 59 28 142 163 50 23 120 429 421 356 2032 202 62 29 149 193 59 28 142 164 50 23 121 443 422 358 2033 209 64 30 154 194 60 28 143 165 51 24 121 457 423 360 2034 215 66 31 158 194 60 28 143 166 51 24 122 470 424 362 2035 221 68 32 163 195 60 28 143 166 51 24 123 484 426 364 2036 228 70 33 168 195 60 28 143 167 51 24 123 498 426 365 2037 234 72 34 172 195 60 28 143 167 51 24 123 512 426 365 2038 240 74 34 177 195 60 28 144 167 52 24 123 526 426 366 2039 247 76 35 182 195 60 28 144 168 52 24 124 540 426 367 2040 253 78 36 187 195 60 28 144 168 52 24 124 554 427 367 2041 260 80 37 191 195 60 28 144 168 52 24 124 568 427 368 2042 266 82 38 196 195 60 28 144 169 52 24 124 582 427 369 2043 272 84 39 201 195 60 28 144 169 52 24 124 596 427 369 2044 279 86 40 205 195 60 28 144 169 52 24 125 609 428 370 2045 285 88 41 210 196 60 28 144 169 52 24 125 623 428 371 2046 291 90 42 215 196 60 28 144 170 52 24 125 637 428 371 2047 298 92 43 219 196 60 28 144 170 52 24 125 651 428 372,.., 1 1

(13.87)..,,,.,. < V-30>. < 표 V-30> 세종충남대학교병원으로부터각지역까지의이동시간 () (: ) 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 - - - - - 4.2 1.7 1.2 1.6 < V-20>. 자가용이용 전환입원연인원 자가용이동시간차이 시간가치 자가용비율 버스이용 전환입원연인원 버스이동시간차이 시간가치 버스비율

< 표 V-31> 세종충남대학교병원의입원환자방문객의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 672 238 131 736 672 238 131 736 672 238 131 736 1,777 1,777 1,777 2019 710 252 138 777 710 252 138 777 710 252 138 777 1,876 1,876 1,876 2020 747 265 145 818 747 265 145 818 747 265 145 818 1,976 1,976 1,976 2021 1,032 366 200 1,130 1,032 366 200 1,130 1,032 366 200 1,130 2,729 2,729 2,729 2022 1,082 383 210 1,184 1,082 383 210 1,184 1,082 383 210 1,184 2,859 2,859 2,859 2023 1,131 401 220 1,239 1,131 401 220 1,239 1,131 401 220 1,239 2,990 2,990 2,990 2024 1,181 419 229 1,293 1,181 419 229 1,293 1,181 419 229 1,293 3,121 3,121 3,121 2025 1,230 436 239 1,347 1,230 436 239 1,347 1,230 436 239 1,347 3,252 3,252 3,252 2026 1,280 454 249 1,401 1,280 454 249 1,401 1,237 438 240 1,354 3,383 3,383 3,269 2027 1,329 471 258 1,455 1,329 471 258 1,455 1,243 441 241 1,361 3,514 3,514 3,287 2028 1,379 489 268 1,510 1,379 489 268 1,510 1,250 443 243 1,369 3,645 3,645 3,304 2029 1,428 506 277 1,564 1,428 506 277 1,564 1,256 445 244 1,376 3,776 3,776 3,322 2030 1,478 524 287 1,618 1,478 524 287 1,618 1,263 448 245 1,383 3,907 3,907 3,339 2031 1,527 541 297 1,672 1,500 532 291 1,643 1,270 450 247 1,390 4,038 3,966 3,357 2032 1,577 559 306 1,727 1,504 533 292 1,647 1,277 453 248 1,398 4,169 3,976 3,375 2033 1,626 577 316 1,781 1,508 535 293 1,651 1,283 455 249 1,405 4,300 3,987 3,393 2034 1,676 594 326 1,835 1,512 536 294 1,656 1,290 457 251 1,413 4,431 3,998 3,411 2035 1,725 612 335 1,889 1,516 537 294 1,660 1,297 460 252 1,420 4,561 4,008 3,429 2036 1,775 629 345 1,944 1,517 538 295 1,661 1,299 461 252 1,423 4,692 4,010 3,435 2037 1,824 647 354 1,998 1,518 538 295 1,662 1,302 461 253 1,425 4,823 4,012 3,441 2038 1,874 664 364 2,052 1,518 538 295 1,663 1,304 462 253 1,428 4,954 4,014 3,447 2039 1,923 682 374 2,106 1,519 539 295 1,663 1,306 463 254 1,430 5,085 4,016 3,454 2040 1,973 699 383 2,160 1,520 539 295 1,664 1,309 464 254 1,433 5,216 4,018 3,460 2041 2,022 717 393 2,215 1,521 539 295 1,665 1,311 465 255 1,436 5,347 4,020 3,466 2042 2,072 735 402 2,269 1,521 539 296 1,666 1,313 466 255 1,438 5,478 4,022 3,472 2043 2,122 752 412 2,323 1,522 540 296 1,667 1,316 466 256 1,441 5,609 4,024 3,478 2044 2,171 770 422 2,377 1,523 540 296 1,668 1,318 467 256 1,443 5,740 4,026 3,485 2045 2,221 787 431 2,432 1,524 540 296 1,668 1,320 468 256 1,446 5,871 4,028 3,491 2046 2,270 805 441 2,486 1,524 540 296 1,669 1,323 469 257 1,449 6,002 4,030 3,497 2047 2,320 822 451 2,540 1,525 541 296 1,670 1,325 470 257 1,451 6,133 4,032 3,504

나. 외래환자및동반자의이동시간절감편익,, (< V-25> ). 50%, < V-19>., < V-28>, 5 2012. 2007 (=10), 2012 117.7, 2012 7,169.1, 3,573.4.. 자가용이용시 외래전환연환자 동반자 이동시간차이 시간가치 이용비율 버스이용시 외래전환연환자 동반자 이동시간차이 시간가치 이용비율 < V-32>.

< 표 V-32> 외래환자및동반자의이동시간절감편익추정 ( 결과 ) (: ) / / / (s1) (s2) (s3) s1 s2 s3 2018 647 229 126 709 647 229 126 709 647 229 126 709 1,711 1,711 1,711 2019 683 242 133 748 683 242 133 748 683 242 133 748 1,807 1,807 1,807 2020 720 255 140 788 720 255 140 788 720 255 140 788 1,903 1,903 1,903 2021 2,002 710 389 2,193 2,002 710 389 2,193 2,002 710 389 2,193 5,294 5,294 5,294 2022 2,099 744 408 2,298 2,099 744 408 2,298 2,099 744 408 2,298 5,548 5,548 5,548 2023 2,195 778 426 2,403 2,195 778 426 2,403 2,195 778 426 2,403 5,802 5,802 5,802 2024 2,291 812 445 2,508 2,291 812 445 2,508 2,291 812 445 2,508 6,056 6,056 6,056 2025 2,387 846 464 2,614 2,387 846 464 2,614 2,387 846 464 2,614 6,310 6,310 6,310 2026 2,483 880 482 2,719 2,483 880 482 2,719 2,399 851 466 2,627 6,564 6,564 6,344 2027 2,579 914 501 2,824 2,579 914 501 2,824 2,412 855 469 2,641 6,818 6,818 6,377 2028 2,675 948 520 2,929 2,675 948 520 2,929 2,425 860 471 2,655 7,072 7,072 6,411 2029 2,771 982 538 3,034 2,771 982 538 3,034 2,438 864 474 2,669 7,326 7,326 6,445 2030 2,867 1,017 557 3,140 2,867 1,017 557 3,140 2,451 869 476 2,684 7,580 7,580 6,479 2031 2,963 1,051 576 3,245 2,910 1,032 565 3,187 2,464 873 479 2,698 7,834 7,695 6,514 2032 3,059 1,085 594 3,350 2,918 1,035 567 3,195 2,477 878 481 2,712 8,088 7,715 6,548 2033 3,155 1,119 613 3,455 2,926 1,037 568 3,204 2,490 883 484 2,726 8,342 7,736 6,583 2034 3,252 1,153 632 3,561 2,934 1,040 570 3,213 2,503 887 486 2,741 8,597 7,756 6,618 2035 3,348 1,187 650 3,666 2,942 1,043 571 3,221 2,516 892 489 2,755 8,851 7,777 6,653 2036 3,444 1,221 669 3,771 2,943 1,043 572 3,223 2,521 894 490 2,760 9,105 7,781 6,665 2037 3,540 1,255 688 3,876 2,945 1,044 572 3,224 2,525 895 491 2,765 9,359 7,785 6,677 2038 3,636 1,289 706 3,981 2,946 1,044 572 3,226 2,530 897 491 2,770 9,613 7,789 6,689 2039 3,732 1,323 725 4,087 2,947 1,045 573 3,228 2,535 899 492 2,775 9,867 7,793 6,701 2040 3,828 1,357 744 4,192 2,949 1,045 573 3,229 2,539 900 493 2,780 10,121 7,796 6,713 2041 3,924 1,391 762 4,297 2,950 1,046 573 3,231 2,544 902 494 2,785 10,375 7,800 6,725 2042 4,020 1,425 781 4,402 2,952 1,047 573 3,232 2,548 903 495 2,790 10,629 7,804 6,737 2043 4,116 1,459 800 4,507 2,953 1,047 574 3,234 2,553 905 496 2,795 10,883 7,808 6,749 2044 4,212 1,493 818 4,613 2,955 1,048 574 3,236 2,557 907 497 2,800 11,137 7,812 6,761 2045 4,309 1,527 837 4,718 2,956 1,048 574 3,237 2,562 908 498 2,805 11,391 7,816 6,773 2046 4,405 1,562 856 4,823 2,958 1,049 575 3,239 2,567 910 499 2,811 11,645 7,820 6,786 2047 4,501 1,596 874 4,928 2,959 1,049 575 3,240 2,571 912 499 2,816 11,899 7,824 6,798

제 4 절편익의종합., (, ),. < V-8>, < V-18>, < V-21>, < V-26>, < V-29>, < V-31>, < V-32>., < V-33>.

< 표 V-33> 세종충남대학교병원건립의편익산정결과 (: ) s1 s2 s3 2018 15,067.2 15,067.2 15,067.2 2019 15,717.8 15,717.8 15,717.8 2020 16,368.6 16,368.6 16,368.6 2021 22,684.9 22,684.9 22,684.9 2022 23,604.0 23,604.0 23,604.0 2023 24,523.3 24,523.3 24,523.3 2024 25,442.7 25,442.7 25,442.7 2025 26,362.3 26,362.3 26,362.3 2026 27,277.0 27,277.0 26,498.7 2027 28,191.9 28,191.9 26,635.9 2028 29,106.8 29,106.8 26,773.7 2029 30,021.8 30,021.8 26,912.3 2030 30,936.9 30,936.9 27,051.6 2031 31,844.5 31,350.9 27,184.1 2032 32,752.2 31,434.7 27,317.2 2033 33,659.9 31,518.7 27,451.0 2034 34,567.6 31,602.9 27,585.6 2035 35,475.4 31,687.3 27,720.7 2036 36,373.8 31,703.2 27,765.1 2037 37,272.3 31,719.0 27,809.6 2038 38,170.7 31,734.9 27,854.1 2039 39,069.2 31,750.7 27,898.7 2040 39,967.6 31,766.6 27,943.4 2041 40,864.4 31,780.8 27,986.5 2042 41,761.1 31,795.0 28,029.6 2043 42,657.9 31,809.2 28,072.8 2044 43,554.6 31,823.4 28,116.1 2045 44,451.4 31,837.6 28,159.5 2046 45,348.1 31,851.8 28,202.9 2047 46,244.4 31,865.6 28,246.0 : s1, s2, s3 < -12> 2047 ( 1), 2018 2047, 2012, 2030 generous ( 2), ( 3).

제 Ⅵ 장경제성분석 제 1 절경제성분석.,... / (B/C ratio), (NPV), (IRR),.,,,., / (B/C ratio), (NPV), (IRR).

제 2 절경제성분석의주요전제.,,. 1. 분석방법 /(Benefit/Cost Ratio, B/C), (Internal Rate of Return, IRR), (Net Present Value, NPV),, B/C. /,,, B/C,,. < -1>. < 표 Ⅵ-1> 경제성분석기법의비교 / - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1) 편익 / 비용비 / ( ), (/)1. 편익 비용비율, : : : () : () 2) 내부수익률 (Internal Rate of Return, IRR). 내부수익률, : : : () : () 3) 순현재가치 () 0. 순현재가치, : : : () : ()

2. 주요전제 가. 분석시전제사항.,. (5)., 2012., 30., 2012,. 나. 분석대상기간및사회적할인율, 4 (20142017). 2018., 20142017 2018 30. 20142047, 2012.,. 5.,, 78%, 56%. 5 5.5%.

제 3 절경제성분석결과 1. 경제성분석결과 2012, 30(2018~2047), 5.5% < -2>. 2 3,119.05, 2,933.86. - 0.94. - / 1, / 1. < 표 Ⅵ-2> 경제성분석결과 B/C (: ) NPV S1 979,340 522,566 319,283 311,905 1.02 7,378 S2 854,337 522,566 293,386 311,905 0.94-18,519 S3 776,986 522,566 272,409 311,905 0.87-39,495 : s1, s2, s3 < -12> 2047 ( 1), 2018 2047, 2012, 2030 generous ( 2), ( 3). - < -3>. 2014~2017 4, 5, 2018.

< 표 Ⅵ-3> 경제성분석흐름표 (: ) S1 S2 S3 2014 5,932 1,497 30,847 3,828 42,104 37,828 2015 29,944 2,542 1,139 3,362 36,987 31,499 2016 59,888 2,277 9,331 1,909 7,341 80,746 65,179 2017 59,888 2,277 21,771 1,859 4,455 1,058 9,275 100,583 76,960 S1 S2 S3 1 2018 1,710 1,710 15,067 15,067 15,067 1,240 10,927 10,927 10,927 2 2019 1,710 1,710 15,718 15,718 15,718 1,176 10,805 10,805 10,805 3 2020 1,710 1,710 16,369 16,369 16,369 1,114 10,666 10,666 10,666 4 2021 2,849 2,849 22,685 22,685 22,685 1,760 14,011 14,011 14,011 5 2022 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 23,604 23,604 23,604 25,416 13,819 13,819 13,819 6 2023 2,849 2,849 24,523 24,523 24,523 1,581 13,608 13,608 13,608 7 2024 2,849 2,849 25,443 25,443 25,443 1,499 13,382 13,382 13,382 8 2025 2,849 2,849 26,362 26,362 26,362 1,420 13,143 13,143 13,143 9 2026 2,849 2,849 27,277 27,277 26,499 1,346 12,890 12,890 12,522 10 2027 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 28,192 28,192 26,636 19,447 12,628 12,628 11,931 11 2028 2,849 2,849 29,107 29,107 26,774 1,210 12,358 12,358 11,368 12 2029 2,849 2,849 30,022 30,022 26,912 1,147 12,082 12,082 10,831 13 2030 2,849 2,849 30,937 30,937 27,052 1,087 11,801 11,801 10,319 14 2031 2,849 2,849 31,845 31,351 27,184 1,030 11,514 11,336 9,829 15 2032 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 32,752 31,435 27,317 14,879 11,225 10,774 9,362 16 2033 2,849 2,849 33,660 31,519 27,451 926 10,935 10,239 8,918 17 2034 2,849 2,849 34,568 31,603 27,586 877 10,644 9,731 8,494 18 2035 2,849 2,849 35,475 31,687 27,721 832 10,354 9,249 8,091 19 2036 2,849 2,849 36,374 31,703 27,765 788 10,063 8,771 7,681 20 2037 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 37,272 31,719 27,810 11,385 9,774 8,318 7,293 21 2038 2,849 2,849 38,171 31,735 27,854 708 9,488 7,888 6,923 22 2039 2,849 2,849 39,069 31,751 27,899 671 9,205 7,481 6,573 23 2040 2,849 2,849 39,968 31,767 27,943 636 8,926 7,094 6,240 24 2041 2,849 2,849 40,864 31,781 27,986 603 8,650 6,727 5,924 25 2042 31,102 3,099 6,364 2,849 43,414 41,761 31,795 28,030 8,711 8,379 6,379 5,624 26 2043 2,849 2,849 42,658 31,809 28,073 542 8,113 6,050 5,339 27 2044 2,849 2,849 43,555 31,823 28,116 514 7,852 5,737 5,068 28 2045 2,849 2,849 44,451 31,838 28,159 487 7,595 5,440 4,812 29 2046 2,849 2,849 45,348 31,852 28,203 461 7,345 5,159 4,568 30 2047-30,847 6,220 620 1,273 2,849-19,885 46,244 31,866 28,246-3,053 7,099 4,892 4,336 149,719 8,475 5,694 1,497 0 192,832 17,974 39,458 1,058 23,806 82,053 522,566 979,340 854,337 776,986 311,905 319,283 293,386 272,409

2. 민감도분석,.,. (sensitivity analysis),,,.,, B/C. 가. 사회적할인율의변화., 5.5% 3.5%~7.5%. B/C. B/C. < 표 Ⅵ-4> 할인율변화에따른민감도분석 (: ) 2 B/C (NPV) 3.5% 367,305 420,565 1.15 53,260 4.5% 337,477 349,915 1.04 12,437 5.5% 311,905 293,386 0.94-18,519 6.5% 289,795 247,809 0.86-41,987 7.5% 270,524 210,785 0.78-59,739

2 - < -4>. 4.5% 3.5%. 5.5%.. 나. 비용의변화,.,. 2. -30% ~ +30%, < -5>. 10% / 1. < 표 Ⅵ-5> 비용의변화에따른민감도분석 2 (%) -30% 218,333 (: ) B/C (NPV) 1.34 75,052-20% 249,524 1.18 43,862-10% 280,714 1.05 12,671 0% 311,905 293,386 0.94-18,519 10% 343,095 0.86-49,710 20% 374,286 0.78-80,900 30% 405,476 0.72-112,091 다. 편익의변화 < -6> -30% ~ +30%

. 2, 10% / 1. < 표 Ⅵ-6> 편익변화에따른민감도분석 (: ) 2 (%) B/C (NPV) -30% 205,370 0.66-106,535-20% 234,709 0.75-77,196-10% 264,047 0.85-47,858 0% 311,905 293,386 0.94-18,519 10% 322,724 1.03 10,819 20% 352,063 1.13 40,158 30% 381,401 1.22 69,497

제 Ⅶ 장정책적분석 제 1 절정책적분석체계...,.,,,,.... (5),,,.

.,. < 표 Ⅶ-1> 정책적분석항목의범주화 제 2 절정책의일관성및추진의지 1. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성평가,..,. 10~20,.. 가. 관련법률검토 8() 18( ). 8()

.,,,,,. 18( ). ()., ().,.,. (, 2012.4) () 30%., 30%,. 나. 관련계획검토 4 (2011~2020)(, 2011), (2005~2030)(, 2006), (, 2010). 4 (2011~2020),.,,.

(2005~2030).,,,,,.,.,., 5/ 50 2,500, 2.. 다. 공공병원으로서의역할, 2014,. 15 5 2003. 2010 12..,. 2014,,

.,.,,.,,,,,.,.,,,.... 라. 소결,...,. 2. 사업추진의지및선호도,

.,.,..,,,.,,.. 가. 주무부처 1) 교육부.,. 2) 충남대학교병원. 2,.,

. 500,,. KAIST, (, ).,.,,. 나. 지방자치단체 1) 행정중심복합도시건설청 ( ).,,,. MOU. 2) 세종특별자치시.,,,

. 다. 소결,,. 3. 사업의준비정도,.,.,.., 2012 7 18 1, 2 2 (, ). 2012 12, 2012 12 26,,, (MOU). (2013.2), 2013 3.,, IT -,.,,

,,,,,,,.., 48), 49).,,,,. [ 그림 Ⅶ-1] 오송첨단의료복합단지및국제과학비즈니스벨트와연계한연구기능활성화 계획

KAIST 2014 6,, KAIST. KAIST, (, ). [ 그림 Ⅶ-2] KAIST 와연계한연구기능활성화계획,,., 1,075,..