제 33 권제 1 호 2017 년 ( 봄 ) 통권 96 호, pp. 63-91. 트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 * 서정건 ** 차태서 ***....,,. 국문요약 본논문은도널드트럼프의대선승리가미국정치체제에미치는함의를살펴보고, 새미국행정부의세계전략을탐구하고자한다. 이를위해탈냉전기미국대전략과의회 / 정당정치의연속성과변화를분석함으로써, 트럼프행정부가기존의자유주의적합의에서이탈하여새로운민족주의적국내외정책을구사할것이란점을밝힌다. 아울러, 본논문은트럼프 의잭슨주의적외교정책이동북아지역과한반도에끼칠영향을예측하고, 결론적으로트럼프당선이자유세계질서의미래에미칠시대적의미에대해논의한다. 주제어 : 도널드트럼프, 미국대전략, 미국의회 / 정당정치, 잭슨주의, 자유세계질서 DOI: 10.17331/kwp.2017.33.1.003 * 2016 ( ) (NRF-2016-S1A3A2925063). 2016 ( ) (NRF-2016-S1A3A2924409).. **. 저서및논문 Strange Bedfellows and US China Policy in the Era of Polarized Politics, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol, 29, No. 1: 47-69 (2017). ***. 저서및논문 The Formation of American Exceptional Identities: A Three-tier Model of the Standard of Civilization in US Foreign Policy, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 21, No. 4: 743-767 (2015).
64 한국과국제정치 Ⅰ. 서론 Bacevich(2017), 2016 (Donald J. Trump) (the age of great expectations) (the great void). (the end of history) (Fukuyama, 1992), ( )., (Hillary Clinton)., (Zakaria, 2016).,., /, (Brexit), (Blyth, 2016).. /.,
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 65 (Jacksonianism) -., Ⅱ. 미국외교정책기반의지속과변화 1. 미국대전략 2 (American grand strategy) (liberal hegemony) (Posen, 2014).,,, (Brands, 2016; Ikenberry, 2011; Kagan, 2012). ( ),. (Krauthammer, 2002).,,.
66 한국과국제정치 (Jervis, 2011).,, (Bill Clinton) (The White House, 1994, 1995). 2001 9/11 (blowback) (Johnson, 2000),. (axis of evil) (Donnelly, 2013). W. (George W. Bush),. (The White House, 2002), (Wilsonianism). (neocon) (Daalder and Lindsay, 2003). 2008. (one-legged Wilsonianism) (Deudney, 2007: 186).,.
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 67 (Burbach and Tarbell, 2004) (Barack Obama) 8.,. 2010 (National Security Strategy) (The White House, 2010),,. 2009 (Cairo Speech),,. (Obama, 2009).,, (, 2010;, 2011;, 2016).,. Ikenberry(2014) (pragmatic internationalism).,,. H. W. (George H. W. Bush), (Brent Scowcroft)., 1 2 UN (Samantha Power)
68 한국과국제정치., 2014. (Bashar al-assad),. (Goldberg, 2016: 72-73). (burden-sharing) (Goldberg, 2016: 78).,.. (, 2015). (restraint), (retrenchment), (offshore balancing) (Layne, 2016; Mearsheimer and Walt, 2016), (Brands and Feaver, 2016; Brooks and Ikenberry et al., 2013).. 2. 미국외교정책과의회 / 정당정치. 1990
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 69 (enlargement) (peace dividend). 2000 (nation building).,. 2000. 1 3 (Ted Kennedy) ( No Child Left Behind ) 9. 2001 9 11. (compassionate conservatism) (neoconservatism)... 1) (the Vulcans), (Richard Nixon) (Gerald Ford) (détente), 1) (Donald Rumsfeld), H. W. (Dick Cheney), (Colin Powell), (Paul Wolfowitz), / (Richard Armitage). Mann(2004).
70 한국과국제정치 (Ronald Reagan) (peace through strength). 9/11 2001, 2003. 9/11 (war-ofnecessity). 2003,., Fox News (Charles Krauthammer). (Brookings Institution) (Robert Kagan) (The Return of History and the End of Dreams). (muscular Wilsonianism) (Wilsonianism in boots).,. 9/11,. (Karl Rove). 9/11.
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 71, 2002 2004. Milkis and Rhodes(2007). 2005,. 2006 - (< 1> ). < 표 1> 미국행정부별하원의석수변천과정 (2001~2018 년 ) 행정부 - 하원 ( 연도 ) 민주당공화당 W. 부시 -107 대 (2001~2002) 213 220 W. 부시 -108 대 (2003~2004) 205 229 W. 부시 -109 대 (2005~2006) 201 233 W. 부시 -110 대 (2007~2008) 233 202 오바마 -111 대 (2009~2010) 257 178 오바마 -112 대 (2011~2012) 193 242 오바마 -113 대 (2013~2014) 201 234 오바마 -114 대 (2015~2016) 188 247 트럼프 -115 대 (2017~2018) 194 241 주 : 는다수당표시. 출처 : U.S. House of Representatives(2017). 2008 ( Yes, We Can. ). (nation-building at home)., (ObamaCare)
72 한국과국제정치,.,, (sequestration),. 2),. 2011 (Osama Bin Laden), 2017 1. (Rand Paul) (libertarian) (Tea Party). 21 2. 2001 9/11 2003, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2. 2001. 2003 2005,. 2). (rebalancing), (norm),, FTA(Free Trade Agreement, ), (TPP: Trans-Pacific Partnership),..
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 73 ( no boots on the ground ). 2006 1994. (security gap). 2011, (national security card). 2010 (< 1> ). 2008 (ObamaCare), (nation-building at home). (John McCain) 2016. Ⅲ. 트럼프시대미국대외정책 1. 잭슨주의전통과트럼프독트린, 2000
74 한국과국제정치 (Haines, 2017). (Jacksonianism) 3) (Cha, 2016; Clarke and Ricketts, 2016; Lieven, 2016; Mead, 2017). 7 (Andrew Jackson),,, (chauvinism)., - -, 18 -. (American creed)., 19.,. 4), (rust belt),. Mead(2001: 218-263),., 3) Mead(1999). 4) (2006) Kazin(2016).
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 75 (Hamiltonianism).,.,., (Thomas Hobbes). --,.,,.,,, (paranoiac).,.. 19, 2,.,, (nativism).. 2,, (terrible mess).
76 한국과국제정치 (Trump, 2015: 31). (Trump, 2016a).,.,.,.,.,,,. (Trump, 2017).,,.,. (Parker, 2016), (Trump, 2016a).,, (nation-building business) (Trump, 2016a).,, 19 (exemplarism). 6 (John Quincy Adams),..
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 77 (Trump, 2016a)., (Pax Americana),. (NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization) (obsolete) (Gove and Diekmann, 2017). 2000, (Applebaum, 2016).. NATO,?. (Sanger and Haberman, 2016). (UN: United Nations), (Begley, 2016).., (Trump, 2016b). (Buy American and Hire American) (Trump, 2017). (WTO: World Trade Organization) (NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement)
78 한국과국제정치 (Trump, 2016c). TPP (Hopper and Cuetara, 2016)., (IS: Islamic State).,. ( )IS,. (Cha, 2016: 90). (America First Foreign Policy),., ( ) (The White House, 2017). 2. 행정부 - 의회관계전망 2017 1 45. 40%,,, (Bill Kristol),, (Lindsey Graham),. 2008 2012 (county) 1/3, -
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 79 (Obama-Trump voters). 2 2018 (23 ) (8 ),., (Finance Committee) (Orrin Hatch).. (agenda-setting power),,.,., / (38%) / (31%). 2008,.,. (budget reconciliation), 8. -.,,,., (EPA: Protection Agency)
80 한국과국제정치. -. < 2>, 2015 (TPA: Trade Promotion Authority). 2015 190 (79.2%), 50 (20.8%), 47 (90.4%), 5 (9.6%),.. 2018, 4 6. 50%. 2018 23, 8. (rust belt). < 표 2> 2015 년 TPA 표결을둘러싼미국민주 - 공화양당의입장차이 찬성 반대 ( 단위 : %) 민주당하원의원 15.1 84.9 민주당상원의원 29.5 70.5 공화당하원의원 79.2 20.8 공화당상원의원 90.4 9.6 출처 : U.S. House of Representatives(http://www.house.gov), 저자계산.
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 81 Ⅳ. 트럼프, 동북아, 그리고한반도 2017.... 45%,. (Clinton, 2011) (pivot to Asia)., (U.S. Department of Defense, 2012)..., (engagement and enlargement).
82 한국과국제정치,, (, 2014: 241). 2001 WTO, (Trump, 2016b)., ( ) (Nicholas and Beckett et al., 2017). 5), ( ), (Lieven, 2012: 167-178).., (Chinization) (Rex W. Tillerson) UN (Nikki Haley). ICBM(Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, ), (Americanization). 5) ( ), (Phillips, 2017).
트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 83 1960~1970 (Lyndon B. Johnson), (Vietnamization). ICBM 2 (secondary boycott),. ICBM, (It won t happen). (twitter). W. 9 9/11,. (partisan politics) (Seo, 2015). (rally-around-the-flag).. 2016 2 (North Korean Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act), (Ed Royce). 96-0, 408-2, 2..
84 한국과국제정치,,,... 1994 (executive agreement). (denuclearization), (freeze), (non-proliferation).,.,. Ⅴ. 결론 (dead center) (, 2012; Kupchan and Trubowitz, 2013),. 2016 -.,,.
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트럼프행정부와미국외교의잭슨주의전환 91 Abstract The Trump Administration and the Jacksonian Turn in US Foreign Policy Jungkun Seo & Taesuh Cha This research aims to explore the implications of Donald J. Trump s presidential victory for the U.S. political system and search for a Trump doctrine. By analyzing continuity and change in post-cold War American grand strategy, we argue that the Trump administration will pursue new nationalist policies, domestic and abroad, departing from the reigning liberal consensus. In addition, this article attempts to predict the way Trump s Jacksonian foreign policy will alter the international dynamics in Northeast Asia and the Korean peninsula. In conclusion, we discuss the epochal significance of a Trump presidency regarding the future of the liberal world order. Key words: Donald J. Trump, American Grand Strategy, U.S. Congress/Party Politics, Jacksonianism, Liberal World Order