住居環境 韓國住居環境學會誌 第 11 卷 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) pp. 109~126 투고 ( 접수 ) 일 : 2013.03.11. 게재확정일자 : 2013.03.29. * ** *** **** Analysis on Involuntary Disposal of Real Estate Owned by Baby Boomers through Court s Auction Yoo, Seon-Jong Moon, Hee-Myung Jung, Hee-Nam Abstract This study aims to analyze the characteristics of real estate owned by Korean baby boomers and the status of their involuntary disposal through court s auction. The cases of auctions, which are scheduled to recover the bank s foreclosure and debt payment thereof, are selected from files of 5 courts which have jurisdiction over Seoul Metropolitan City. The cases are 464, among which 190 are owned by baby boomers and 274, by other households. The study examines the differences of debtor characteristics, auction characteristics, and real estate characteristics between both groups, i.e., baby boomers and other households. It also examines the characteristics of the baby boomers who bought the real estate auctioned at the court. The findings are summarized as follows; First, the competition rate of the auctioned real estate owned by baby boomers was higher than those owned by other generations. Second, the duration of successful bid of baby boomers real estate was shorter. Third, the bid price rate (the ratio of successful price tendered to estimated value) of baby boomers real estate was higher, and thus the reimbursed or receivable rate for baby boomers debt was higher. These results imply that the relationship of rights and duties of baby boomers real estate was relatively uncomplicated comparing with that of other generations real estate. 키워드 : 경매, 베이비부머, 가계부채, 주택담보대출, 회귀분석 Key words : court's auction, baby boomers, household debt, mortgage loans, regression analysis * 2012(). (NRF-2011-330-B00219) **, ***, ****, 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 109
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 1. Ⅰ. 2011 1,750 62.8 1,099. 910.8, 8,289. 1) 1990,.. 2004 2009 9.6. 2) (retail banking),. 2000,.., 2009 1.4 1.3. 2012 8 457.0 1.5, 0.8. 0.08p, 0.91 1) 2011 629.5, 281.3. 1,750 10,514. 2) 2009 55, 65.. 3). 2001 2005 2006. 2008.. 4) 5). 14.6 21.8. 6) 61 48.. 2008 2010. 09 10 11 1~8 1/4 12.1~8 2/4 7 8p 3) (www.kif.re.kr) 2012.8 12.8 20.8 21.9 24.9 17.9 4.5 2.7 5.0 0.7 1.5 457.0 26.2 20.1 23.6 13.0 5.7 0.9 3.6 0.4 0.8 309.3 년도 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 경매 건수 09 10 11 12 8 12 8 12 6 8 9 11125 6 7 8p 0.67 0.48 0.78 0.61 0.72 0.80 0.71 0.79 0.67 0.97 0.83 0.93 1.01 0.45 0.33 0.64 0.52 0.67 0.71 0.63 0.69 0.61 0.86 0.74 0.83 0.91 4) (www.courtauction.go.kr) 630 2,088 3,799 6,182 7,870 7,141 4,173 4,158 6,971 6,048 6,661 5) (baby boom) 1955 1963, 2010 47 55. 1960 1970, 1980 30~40, 1998 IMF 2008. 6), 2010 2010, KB 2011-17. 110 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남. 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 <-1>,..,.,. 2.. 0 주택담보대출 가계대출 5,159,632 4,740,975 4,433,482 3,555,400 3,932,395 6,426,915 5,507,366 5,958,848 3,061,160 2,642,283 2,845,253 2,171,163 2,216,400 2,396,883 1,692,359 1,902,367 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011,.,,...,.,,. 2011 9. 5 464 7). 1955~1963 190. 5(,,,, ) 25. 464 190 274. 7). 2011 9 5 584 141 443 10 21 464, 190. 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 111
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 Ⅱ. 1...,,,. 1997. 2006 2008 21,492.. 8) 36. 9)., 8) 107.3 116.1... 9) 2011 19 743, 13 881. 1 4,505 1 9734. 15.6 17.0. 22 5, 521,500 9.5.. <-1> 2004 47.6 2006 49.0 2008 10). 2011 50. 11) 2. 2.. 12) 1955 1963 2010 695 14.6. 515 2 336 65.3. 10). 년도 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 비율 47.6 48.4 49.0 46.7 46.5 48.0 47.7 47.6. 20121.. 11) (2012.4), - 50 46.4 2003 13.2,, 2005~2007. 12), (2006), pp107~110. 구분한국일본미국 출생년도 1 9 5 5 년 1963 년 (9 년간 ) 1 9 4 7 년 1949 년 (3 년간 ) 1 9 4 6 년 1964 년 (18 년간 ) 인구수 695 만명 806 만명 7,600 만명 112 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남 60, 3.4 76.3. 13) 68.9 8,360. 1,322. 62.7. 345 1.12 386,. 14) <-1> 695 ( 14.5) 1960 (87, 12.5) (44.7) (83.5) (18.2) (58.8) 2 (65.3) 1 58 / -297 (42.7) 59.6 52.3 3.4 68.9 (59.5) 13), 2010 2010, KB 14) (2011), ",,, pp.15 40. - 90.. 3.. 2(2011) 15),,. (2011) 16).,. (2010) 17),,,. 1(2007) 18), (+) 15) 2(2011),,, 46, pp77~90. 16) (2011),,. 17) (2010),, 18) 1(2007),,, 154 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 113
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석. (2009) 19) 3, (2008).,,. 2(2010) 20),. (2010) 21),,. 2(2011) 22),. (2010) 23), ž,.,.,.,..,. Ⅲ. 19) (2009),,. 20) 2(2010),,. 21) (2010),,. 22) 2(2011),, 1. 23) (2010),,. 114 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남., 190 274.,,,.,,,. 1) 5., 24). 2011 9 5 464, 41 190, 274. 24) 20115 28,287. 2,391, 10,676 46.2. 10,890, ž 500. 5 2011 9. ( ) <-2> () 18 13 20 23 26 100 () 2) <-3> () () ( m2 ) 20119 (= ) 25 m2 m2 2011 (/) (~ ) / () /() /() /() 84 59 92 105 124 464.. (1) () ( m2 ). 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 115
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 (2).,, 3.,,,, 6.,, (=),, (~ ). /(),, <-4> N N 190 1.00 5.00 1.84 0.83 274 1 6 1.92 0.93 190 42,000 1,900,000 611,353 380,956 274 150,000 6,000,000 675,391 560,247 190 17,203 1,468,228 479,769 274,738 274 132,858 1,848,777 507,708 322,351 190 38,556 3,145,000 917,434 668,368 274 13,000 7,803,874 1,102,187 1,237,240 190 10,000 2,145,000 426,450 429,212 274 13,000 3,215,700 489,816 521,696 190 17,203 1,424,000 431,908 252,768 274 115,200 1,664,000 449,352 290,153 / () 190 0.15 7.81 1.54 0.96 274 0.04 14.72 1.65 1.39 / () 190 0.41 1.02 0.80 0.10 274 0.08 1.26 0.80 0.12 /() 190 0.04 3.00 0.67 0.45 274 0.04 5.10 0.74 0.55 /() 190 0.29 10.07 1.93 1.22 274 0.05 19.23 2.13 1.91 /() 190 0.05 4.69 0.85 0.59 274 0.04 6.66 0.95 0.72 /() 190 1.00 1.56 1.12 0.10 274 1.00 1.52 1.14 0.10 190 1.00 45.00 5.59 6.34 274 1.00 28.00 5.41 5.18 190 1.00 25.00 12.7 6.7 274 1.00 25.00 12.15 6.37 190 0.00 1.00 0.91 0.29 274 0.00 1.00 0.86 0.35 190 1.00 5.00 3.38 1.04 274 1.00 5.00 3.40 1.07 190 0.00 1.00 0.41 0.49 274 0.00 1.00 0.45 0.50 190 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.10 274 0.00 1.00 0.04 0.19 190 0.00 1.00 0.12 0.32 274 0.00 1.00 0.08 0.27 190 0.00 1.00 0.99 0.07 274 0.00 1.00 0.98 0.13 (-) 190 0.00 1.00 0.84 0.37 274 0.00 1.00 0.79 0.41 190 1987.0 2010.0 2006.1 3.4 274 1984.0 2011.0 2006.5 3.5 /- 190 3.00 288 54.11 41.30 274 3 245 46.32 35.845 190 4.00 39 15.84 6.41 274 5 69 15.96 8.168 190 14.87 236.14 103.19 38.43 274 34.44 267.08 105.25 42.59 190 5.46 223.00 46.83 24.10 274 9.62 233.00 46.67 23.31 - () 190 0.00 36.00 8.77 8.21 274 0 33 8.30 7.99 () 190 1.00 40.00 13.72 7.93 274 1 37 12.81 7.94 190 12 5540 702.38 944.92 274 8 6600 694.13 1013.30 190 2.00 6.00 3.41 0.73 274 2.00 6.00 3.36 0.76 190 1955.0 1963.0 1959.0 2.44 266 1923 1988 1953.36 145.18 190 1156.8 10550.51 4550.28 1698.00 274 1584.51 13223.3 4733.98 1992.37 () 190 274 116 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남. 8 /(), /(), /() 3. 2. 1),,. (1). <-5>. <-6> 91.6, 91.4. 25) 464 8. <-5> 1955~ 1963 1923~ 1954 1964~ 1988 1923~ 1988 () <-6> () 8 190 41.7 23.7 31 134 29.4 4.3 24 132 28.9 5.5 65 456 25) 100 7.0 () () 109 57.4 142 51.8 65 34.2 101 36.9 () 10 5.3 13 4.7 () 5 2.6 3 1.1 () 1.5 7 2.6 0.0 8 2.9 190 100 274 100 <-7>,, 2. <-7> 3 1.6 18 6.6 18 9.5 23 8.4 81 42.6 96 35.0 2 65 34.2 100 36.5 23 12.1 37 13.5 190 100 274 100 *-21(11.1) 2-146 (76.8) -12.1 41 (15) 2-196(71.5) -13.5 (2) <-8> 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 117
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석, 105 m2 41.05. <-8> 85m2 101 53.16 140 51.09 105m2 11 5.79 25 9.12 105m2 78 41.05 109 39.78 190 100 274 100 <-9> 102 110.47, 108.31.. <-9> / 103.19 105.25 m2 611,353 675,391 () 5,925 6,417 () 0.97 0.95 4,550 4,734 479,769 507,708 () 469,543 498,251 () 76.80 73.77 <-10> 4 41.1, 10 34.2 46.0 20 79.5 78.7. <-10> / 2 13 6.8 24 8.8 3 99 52.1 147 53.6 4 67 35.3 87 31.8 5 9 4.7 12 4.4 6 2 1.1 4 1.5 190 100 274 100 10 65 34.2 125 46.0 20 86 45.3 89 32.7 30 36 18.9 52 19.1 30 3 1.6 6 2.2 190 100 272 100 (3) <-11>.,. <-11> () 1(80) 73 38.42 100 36.50 2(64) 82 43.16 114 41.61 3(41) 31 16.32 50 18.25 4(33) 1 0.53 3 1.09 5(26) 3 1.58 5 1.82 6(19) 0 0 2 0.73 190 100 0 274 * - 2-81.58 3 18.42-2-78.10 3-21.9 <-12> 27.89, 10 118 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남 16.32. <-12> () 1 53 27.89 61 22.26 5 60 31.58 93 33.94 10 46 24.21 79 28.83 10 31 16.32 41 14.96 190 100 274 100 <-13>.. <-13> 4 89 46.84 146 53.28 5 20 10.53 34 12.41 6 22 11.58 32 11.68 7 10 5.26 21 7.66 10 32 16.84 27 9.85 10 17 8.95 14 5.11 190 100 274 100 <-14> 6 55.26. 2),.. <-14> () 1-(4) 30 15.8 47 17.2 2-(5) 40 21.1 44 16.1 3-(6) 35 18.4 36 13.1 4-(7) 14 7.4 29 10.6 5-(8) 19 10.0 32 11.7 6-(9) 9 4.7 24 8.8 7-(9) 43 22.6 62 22.6 190 100 274 100 *-6-55.26 6 44.73-6-46.35 6-53.65 (1).. 91.05. <-15> 2007, 2007 10.. <-15> 17 8.95 39 14.23 173 91.05 235 85.77 190 100 274 100 2007 90 47.37 102 37.23 2007 100 52.63 172 62.77 190 100 274 100 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 119
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 <-16> () () 2 4(2.1) 2.1 10(3.6) 3.6 2~3 20(10.5) 12.6 28(10.2) 13.9 3~4 42(22.1) 34.7 48(17.5) 31.4 4~5 27(14.2) 48.9 49(17.9) 49.3 5~6 27(14.2) 63.2 37(13.5) 62.8 6~7 12(6.3) 69.5 18(6.6) 69.3 7~8 17(8.9) 78.4 14(5.1) 74.5 8~9 5(2.6) 81.1 12(4.4) 78.8 9 36(18.9) 100 58(21.2) 100 190(100) 274(100) () () 3 24(12.6) 12.6 40(14.6) 14.6 3~5 38(20.0) 32.6 52(19.0) 33.6 5~7 31(16.3) 48.9 48(17.5) 51.1 7~9 29(15.3) 64.2 27(9.9) 60.9 9~12 15(7.9) 72.1 26(9.5) 70.4 12~15 18(9.5) 81.6 26(9.5) 79.9 15~20 14(7.4) 88.9 20(7.3) 87.2 20 21(11.1) 100 35(12.8) 100 190(100) 274(100) <-16> 4 ~5, 3~4 22.1, 9 21.2 5 50.7.. 9 64.2 9 39.1 3.3. <-17>... <-17> /- / 40 41 21.6 38 13.9 40~60 33 17.4 43 15.7 60~80 33 17.4 47 17.2 80~100 23 12.1 47 17.2 100~120 12 6.3 36 13.1 120~140 20 10.5 27 9.9 140 28 14.7 36 13.1 190 100 274 100 / 40 51 26.8 55 20.1 40~50 27 14.2 33 12.0 50~60 21 11.1 29 10.6 60~70 21 11.1 29 10.6 70~80 13 6.8 27 9.9 80~90 7 3.7 23 8.4 90~100 7 3.7 22 8.0 100~120 27 14.2 28 10.2 120 16 8.4 28 10.2 190 100 274 100 26) 26).,... 120 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남. 60 39 29.6. 100 63.9. 100 68.9, 140 14.7 13.1. LTV. 27) 70~80 70.0, 63.1. 80 1 37.. <-18> 80, 39.8 79. 27). 20~30... <-18> 60 8 4.21 11 4.01 60-69 16 8.42 27 9.85 70-74 17 8.95 29 10.58 75-79 25 13.16 42 15.33 80-84 71 37.37 83 30.29 85-89 30 15.79 41 14.96 90-94 14 7.37 25 9.12 95-99 4 2.11 6 2.19 100 5 2.63 10 3.65 190 100 274 100 (2).,. SPSS 18.0. (constant) 17, R 0.944, (R2) 0.892 89. adj R2 0.881. R2 88.1 88.1. 0.1 10.. 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 121
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 28) () 1.13, 0.033 83.268 < 0.001., 54.492 48.588 0.05. <-20>. 17 9.,, / ()(-),,,,,, (+). (1.274)> (-0.772)> (0.282)> / () (-0.258)> (0.102)> (-0.084) <-19> R R R R Durbin-Watson F F 1.944.892.881 585.87365.892 83.268.000 1.971 <-20> t B VIF () 3012.910 720.989 4.179.000 (20119) -21.764 66.138 -.011 -.329.742 1.593 () 16.468 10.978.061 1.500.135 2.130 () 278.241 130.660.061 2.130.035 1.234 18.236 6.649.073 2.743.007 1.099 6.832 8.834.026.773.440 1.590-34.104 2.234 -.772-15.267.000 4.136 7.159 2.977.102 2.405.017 2.954.132.052.073 2.514.013 1.323 (2011) -17.896 6.176 -.084-2.898.004 1.248-50.889 46.713 -.031-1.089.278 1.210 (-) -.553 13.308 -.001 -.042.967 1.277 ().008.000 1.247 28.392.000 2.774 4952.905 1092.89.282 4.532.000 7.569 /() -3.474 18.673 -.005 -.186.853 1.326 /() -4311.136 1121.71 -.258-3.843.000 8.153 /() 6.677 44.040.005.152.880 1.121 /() -69.466 91.084 -.025 -.763.447 1.305 28) 0,. (Regression), (, Residual). (0.073)> (0.073)> (0.061).. 122 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남 (+).., (+).,.., (-).. (+)... /(). (-).. 1(80), 2(64), 3(51). (+).. (2007). (+).. (-).. 25.,, (+).. (+). 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 123
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석.,. (+).. (-), /(),,,,,, 5 (+).,.. Ⅳ. 1.. 5 464 190 274,.., <-13>.. <-16>.,,,, 7,,., <-15>,,.,..., 124 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境
유선종 문희명 정희남 (-).... 2...,...,. 1. (2010),, 2. (2010),, 3. (2008),, 4. žž(2010),, 5. žž(2012), ( 8),, 102 6. (2011),, 7. ž(2007),,, 15 4 8. žž(2012),,, 101 9. žž(2012),,, 10 3 10. (2010),,, Vol. 45, No. 5 11. (2009),, 第 11 卷第 1 號 ( 通卷第 20 號 ) 125
베이비붐세대소유부동산의강제매각결정요인분석 12. (2010),, 13. (2008),, 14. žž(2011),, 15. žž(2011),,, 46 16. žž(2011),, 17. www.goodauction.co.kr 18. www.courtauction.go.kr 19. www.svcourt.go.kr 20. www.seri.org 21. www.onnara.go.kr 22., 2010 kostat.go.kr 23. KB(2011), 2010 24. (2012.1), 25. (2012.4), www.bok.go.kr 26. (2012), 2012.8 27. (2006), 28. (2012), 2011 126 韓國住居環境學會誌 住居環境