35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 EURO 일본미국중국

국물가 국산업생산 국물가 국산업생산 국물가 산업생산

2 7 US Long Int. Rate Korea CPI Response ( 미국 ) ( 중국 ) ( 유로 ) ( 일본 ) 1 2 5 China Long Int. Rate 2 4 Euro Area Long Int. Rate 1 8 Japan Long Int. Rate 1 8 1 0 0 1 6 1 2 장기이자율 9 0-9 - 1 8-2 7-3 6 0.0 2 0 US Share Price 7 5 5 0 2 5 0 0-2 5-5 0 4 China Share Price 8-0 - 8-1 6-2 4-3 2 0.0 2 0 0 Euro Area Share Price 6 0-6 - 1 2-1 8-2 4-3 0 0.0 1 5 0 Japan Share Price 0.0 1 5 3 0.0 1 7 5 0.0 1 2 5 주가 0.0 1 0 5-5 -0.0 1 0 2 1-1 - 2-3 0.0 1 5 0 0.0 1 2 5 0.0 1 0 0 7 5 5 0 2 5 0.0 1 0 0 7 5 5 0 2 5 0-0.0 1 5-4 0-2 5-0.0 2 0-5 - 2 5-5 0 실질환율 0.0 1 5 0 0.0 1 2 5 0.0 1 0 0 7 5 5 0 2 5 0 Oil Price - -0.0 2 5-0.0 5 0-0.0 7 5-0.1 0 0-0.1 2 5-0.1 5 0-0.1 7 5 China Exchange Rate 0.0 1 5 0.0 1 0 5-5 -0.0 1 0-0.0 1 5-0.0 2 0-0.0 2 5 Euro Area Exchange Rate 0.0 4 0 0.0 3 2 0.0 2 4 0.0 1 6 8-8 -0.0 1 6-0.0 2 4 Japan Exchange Rate - 2 5-0.2 0 0-0.0 3 0-0.0 3 2 0.1 2 US Ind. Production 3 0 China Ind. Production 0.0 4 Euro Area Ind. Production 0.0 5 Japan Ind. Production 산업생산 0.1 0 0.0 8 0.0 6 0.0 4 0.0 2 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0-5 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.0 1-0.0 1-0.0 2 0.0 4 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.0 1-0.0 1-0.0 2-0.0 2-1 0-0.0 3-0.0 3 물가 0.3 0 0.2 5 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 US CPI 0.1 5 0 0.1 2 5 0.1 0 0 0.0 7 5 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5 China CPI 0.1 0 0 0.0 7 5 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5 - -0.0 2 5-0.0 5 0-0.0 7 5 Euro Area CPI 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5-0.0 5 Japan CPI -0.0 5-0.1 0 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.0 2 5-0.1 2 5-0.1 5

장기이자율 주가 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 US Long Int. Rate US Share Price 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5 - -0.0 2 5-0.0 5 0-0.0 7 5-0.1 0 0-0.1 2 5-0.1 5 0-0.1 7 5 0.2 5-0.2 5-0.5 0 Korea Long Interest Rate Response ( 미국 ) ( 중국 ) ( 유로 ) ( 일본 ) China Long Int. Rate China Share Price 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Euro Area Long Int. Rate Euro Area Share Price 0.1 6 0.0 8-0.0 8-0.1 6-0.2 4-0.3 2-0.4 0-0.4 8-0.5 6 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Japan Long Int. Rate Japan Share Price 실질환율 -3 1.2 0.8 0.4-0.0-0.4-0.8 Oil Price -0.7 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 China Exchange Rate -0.5 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 Euro Area Exchange Rate -2.0 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 Japan Exchange Rate -1.2 0 0-2 산업생산 물가 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0-7.5-1 0.0-1 2.5-1 5.0 4 8 4 0 3 2 2 4 1 6 8 US Ind. Production US CPI 0.3 0 0.2 5 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5-0.0 5 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 China Ind. Production China CPI 1 5.0 1 2.5 1 0.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5 1 2 8 4 0-4 -8-1 2-1 6 Euro Area Ind. Production Euro Area CPI 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 6 0-6 -1 2-1 8-2 4-3 0 Japan Ind. Production Japan CPI 0-2 -2 0-3 6-8 -4-2 4-4 2

( 미국 ) ( 중국 Korea ) Exchange Rate Response ( 유로 ) ( 일본 ) 0.0 4 US Long Int. Rate China Long Int. Rate 0.0 2 0 Euro Area Long Int. Rate 5 Japan Long Int. Rate 장기이자율 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.0 1-0.0 1 0.1 0 0 US Share Price - 1-2 - 3-4 - 5-6 5 China Share Price 0.0 1 5 0.0 1 0 5-5 -0.0 1 0 0.0 7 5 Euro Area Share Price - 5-0.0 1 0-0.0 1 5-0.0 2 0 0.0 1 6 Japan Share Price 주가 0.0 7 5 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5 - -0.0 2 5-0.0 5 0-0.0 7 5-5 -0.0 1 0-0.0 1 5-0.0 2 0-0.0 2 5 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5-0.0 2 5-0.0 1 6-0.0 3 2-0.0 4 8-0.0 6 4-0.0 8 0-0.1 0 0-0.0 3 0-0.0 5 0-0.0 9 6 실질환율 0.0 4 8 0.0 3 2 0.0 1 6-0.0 1 6 Oil Price 1.7 5 1.5 0 1.2 5 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5 China Exchange Rate 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Euro Area Exchange Rate 0.6 4 0.5 6 0.4 8 0.4 0 0.3 2 0.2 4 0.1 6 0.0 8 Japan Exchange Rate -0.0 3 2 0.0-0.0 8 산업생산 - 0 0 0 0-0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0-0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0-0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 US Ind. Production 4 3 2 1-1 - 2-3 China Ind. Production 0.4 0 0.3 5 0.3 0 0.2 5 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 Euro Area Ind. Production 0.0 5 - -0.0 5-0.1 0-0.1 5-0.2 0-0.2 5-0.3 0 Japan Ind. Production - 4-0.3 5-0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 1 2-5 -0.0 5-0.4 0 물가 0.5 4 0.3 6 0.1 8 - -0.1 8-0.3 6 US CPI 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 - -0.0 5-0.1 0-0.1 5-0.2 0 China CPI 0.2 5-0.2 5-0.5 0 Euro Area CPI 0.4-0.0-0.4-0.8-1.2-1.6-2.0 Japan CPI -0.5 4-0.2 5-2.4-0.7 2-0.3 0-0.7 5-2.8

( 미국 ) ( 중국 ) ( 유로 ) ( 일본 ) Korea Share Price Response 0.1 4 US Long Int. Rate 2 5 China Long Int. Rate 0.0 7 Euro Area Long Int. Rate 0.0 4 Japan Long Int. Rate 장기이자율 0.1 2 0.1 0 0.0 8 0.0 6 0.0 4 0.0 2-0.0 2 0-2 5-5 0-7 5-0.0 1 0 0-0.0 1 2 5-0.0 1 5 0-0.0 1 7 5 0.0 6 0.0 5 0.0 4 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.0 1-0.0 1 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.0 1-0.0 1-0.0 2-0.0 3 1.0 US Share Price 0.1 0 0 China Share Price 0.7 Euro Area Share Price 0.2 5 Japan Share Price 주가 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 7 5 0.0 5 0 0.0 2 5-0.0 2 5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 0.0-0.0 5 0 0.0-0.0 5 실질환율 -0.2 0.3 0 0.2 5 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 Oil Price -0.0 7 5 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 China Exchange Rate -0.1 1.7 5 1.5 0 1.2 5 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 Euro Area Exchange Rate -0.1 0 2.0 0 1.7 5 1.5 0 1.2 5 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5 Japan Exchange Rate -0.0 5 0.5 0.2 5-0.1 0 0.0-0.2 5 산업생산 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5 US Ind. Production 0.0 1 0 5-5 -0.0 1 0-0.0 1 5-0.0 2 0 China Ind. Production 2.0 0 1.7 5 1.5 0 1.2 5 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5 Euro Area Ind. Production 0.2 5-0.2 5-0.5 0-0.7 5-1.0 0 Japan Ind. Production -3.0-0.0 2 5-0.2 5-1.2 5 물가 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 US CPI 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 China CPI 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Euro Area CPI 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Japan CPI -5-1.2-1.5-6

240 200 220 200 175 180 160 150 140 120 125 100 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 US Share Index Korea Share Index US Industrial Production Index Korea Industrial Production Index 8 0.0048 7 0.0036 6 5 0.0024 4 0.0012 3 0.0000 2 1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-0.0012 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 US Short Int. Rate Korea Short Int. Rate China Inflation Korea Inflation

0.25 0.06 0.20 0.04 0.15 0.10 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00-0.02-0.05-0.10-0.04-0.15 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-0.06 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 US Share Index Korea Share Index US Industrial Production Index Korea Industrial Production Index 0.75 0.0150 0.50 0.0125 0.25 0.0100 0.00 0.0075 0.0050-0.25 0.0025-0.50 0.0000-0.75-0.0025-1.00-0.0050-1.25 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-0.0075 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 US Short Int. Rate Korea Short Int. Rate China Inflation Korea Inflation

0.6 Cross-correlations US and Korea Share Indexes 0.3 Cross-correlations US and Korea Short Int. Rates 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2-0.0 0.1-0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20-0.3-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0.3 Cross-correlations US and Korea Industrial Production Indexes 0.100 Cross-correlations China and Korea Inflation 0.075 0.2 0.050 0.025 0.1-0.000 0.0-0.025-0.050-0.1-0.075-0.100-0.2-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20-0.125-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Korea Industrial Production Response 0.0 6 4 US Long Int. Rate 2 China Long Int. Rate 0.0 3 6 Euro Area Long Int. Rate 0.0 3 Japan Long Int. Rate 0.0 4 8 1 0.0 3 0 0.0 2 4 0.0 2 장기이자율 0.0 3 2 0.0 1 6-0.0 1 6-0.0 3 2-0.0 4 8 0.2 0 US Share Price - 1-2 - 3-4 0.0 2 0 China Share Price 0.0 1 8 0.0 1 2 6 - - 6-0.0 1 2-0.0 1 8 0.1 5 Euro Area Share Price 0.0 1-0.0 1-0.0 2-0.0 3 0.0 4 Japan Share Price 0.1 5 주가 0.1 0 0.0 5 - -0.0 5-0.1 0-0.1 5-0.2 0 0.0 1 5 0.0 1 0 5-5 -0.0 1 0-0.0 1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 0.0 2-0.0 2-0.0 4-0.0 6-0.2 5-0.0 2 0-0.0 5-0.0 8 실질환율 0.1 2 0.1 0 0.0 8 0.0 6 0.0 4 0.0 2-0.0 2 Oil Price 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5 China Exchange Rate 0.4 5 0.4 0 0.3 5 0.3 0 0.2 5 0.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 Euro Area Exchange Rate 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Japan Exchange Rate -0.0 4-0.2 5-0.1 산업생산 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5-0.2 5-0.5 0-0.7 5 US Ind. Production 0.0 2 5 0.0 2 0 0.0 1 5 0.0 1 0 5-5 China Ind. Production 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.0-0.2 Euro Area Ind. Production 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6 Japan Ind. Production -1.0 0-0.0 1 0-0.4-0.8-1.2 5-0.0 1 5-0.6-1.0-1.5 0 물가 1.2 5 1.0 0 0.7 5 0.5 0 US CPI -0.0 2 0 0.4 2 0.2 8 0.1 4 China CPI -0.8 0.7 5 0.5 0 0.2 5 Euro Area CPI -1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Japan CPI 0.2 5-1.0-0.1 4-0.2 5-1.5-0.2 5-0.2 8-0.5 0-2.0-0.5 0-2.5-0.7 5-0.4 2-0.7 5-3.0-1.0 0-0.5 6-1.0 0-3.5