디스플레이산업 [3 월상반월 ] LCD 패널가격동향 Witsview, 3월상반월 LCD패널가격발표 : 2월하반월대비 -0.3% 하락시장조사기관인 Witsview 가 3월상반월 LCD패널가격을발표하였다. TV, 모니터, 노트PC 용 LCD패널평균가격은지난 2월하반월대비 -0.3% 로하락세를이어갔지만, 하락의폭은감소했다. TV패널중에서중국내수요비중이높은 32인치의가격은춘절이후의재고조정영향으로지속적으로하락하고있고, 노트 PC 패널은 2Q13 신제품출시의효과로전월대비하락의폭이감소했다. Application 별 LCD패널의평균가격은 TV $203(-0.3%), 모니터 $72(-0.6%), 노트 PC $42(-0.2%) 를각각기록했다. 2013. 3. 6 산업분석 Analyst 박유악 02.3772-74 yuak.pak@hanwha.com Overweight LCD패널 : 2Q13 출하량증가예상, 가격은 4월까지보합또는하락전망 2Q13 TV 신제품출시와중국노동절에대비한재고축적수요로인해서, 글로벌 TV패널의출하량은지난 2월을저점으로상승전환될것으로예상한다. 2Q13 노트PC 와모니터패널의출하량은 Set업체의신제품출시를위한재고축적수요로 1Q13 대비증가할전망이다. 다만 LTPS/Oxide 공정전환에따른 LCD패널의수급개선이 4월이후부터본격화될것으로예상되어, LCD패널의가격은당분간보합또는하락할것으로전망한다. 비중확대바람직 : 패널가격하락보다는 1)LCD 수급개선과 2)Apple 모멘텀에주목 LG디스플레이는 1Q13 LCD패널의가격하락영향으로주가상승의폭이제한적일수있겠으나, 이를비중확대의기회로활용하는것이바람직하다고판단한다. 1)4월이후의 LCD수급개선과 2) 하반기 Apple향실적모멘텀부각을예상하기때문이다. LCD Panel 가격및원가추이 190 180 170 LCD Panel Price(Commodity) LCD Panel Price(Premium) LCD Panel Cash Cost LCD Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 1 1 130 120 110 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13E 주1: LCD Panel Price(Commodity)/Cash Cost/Fully-Loaded Cost는 TV, MNT, NB의평균으로환산한수치임. 주2: LCD Panel Price(Premium) 은한화투자증권리서치센터추정
산업분석ㅣ디스플레이 [ 그림 1] 32 인치 LCD TV 패널가격및원가추이 [ 그림 2] 42 인치 LCD TV 패널가격및원가추이 250 32"W TV Panel Price 32"W TV Panel Cash Cost 32"W TV Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 0 42"W TV Panel Price 42"W TV Panel Cash Cost 42"W TV Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 350 300 250 [ 그림 3] 23 인치모니터용 LCD 패널가격및원가추이 [ 그림 4] 19 인치모니터용 LCD 패널가격및원가추이 120 23"W MNT Panel Price 23"W MNT Panel Cash Cost 23"W MNT Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 19"W MNT Panel Price 19"W MNT Panel Cash Cost 19"W MNT Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 80 80 [ 그림 5] 14 인치노트 PC 용 LCD 패널가격및원가추이 [ 그림 6] 15.6 인치노트 PC 용 LCD 패널가격및원가추이 70 14"W NB Panel Price 14"W NB Panel Cash Cost 14"W NB Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 70 15.6"W LED NB Panel Price 15.6"W LED NB Panel Cash Cost 15.6"W LED NB Panel Fully-Loaded Cost 50 50 30 30 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 2 Research Center
디스플레이ㅣ산업분석 [ 표 1] Bi-Weekly LCD 패널가격추이 ( 단위 : USD) 2012.10 2012.11 2012.12 2013.01 2013.02 2013.03 상반월하반월상반월하반월상반월하반월상반월하반월상반월하반월상반월 Blended LCD Panel Price 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 107 107 106 106 %Growth 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.3% TV Price Blended 203 204 205 206 206 206 206 205 205 204 203 32" LED HD 157 158 159 1 1 1 1 1 159 158 157 42" LED FHD 275 276 277 278 278 278 278 277 276 275 275 47" LED FHD 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 366 365 55" LED FHD 515 515 515 515 515 515 513 512 511 510 509 %Growth Blended 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% -0.3% 32" LED HD 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% 42" LED FHD 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% 0.0% 47" LED FHD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% 55" LED FHD -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% MNT Price Blended 76 76 75 75 75 75 75 74 74 73 72 18.5" LED HD 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 54 54 53 53 20" LED HD+ 65 65 65 65 65 64 64 64 63 63 63 21.5" LED FHD 77 77 77 77 77 76 76 75 75 74 73 23" LED FHD 87 87 87 87 86 86 86 85 85 84 84 27" LED FHD 142 141 1 139 138 138 137 136 135 134 133 %Growth Blended 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% -0.3% -0.6% -0.3% -0.6% -0.6% -0.9% -0.6% 18.5" LED HD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.9% -0.9% 0.0% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% 0.0% 20" LED HD+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% 0.0% 21.5" LED FHD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -1.3% -0.7% 23" LED FHD 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% 27" LED FHD -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% NB Price Blended 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 13.3" LED HD 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 14" LED HD 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 15.6" LED HD 38 38 38 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 17.3" LED HD+ 57 57 56 56 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 %Growth Blended -0.2% -0.3% -0.6% -0.2% -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% 13.3" LED HD -0.5% -0.2% -0.7% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% -0.7% -0.5% 14" LED HD 0.0% -0.8% -0.3% -0.6% -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.3% 0.0% 15.6" LED HD -0.3% -0.5% -0.3% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% 17.3" LED HD+ 0.0% 0.0% -0.9% 0.0% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 주 : Blended Price 는주요패널의사이즈별출하비중에따른수치임 Research Center 3
산업분석ㅣ디스플레이 [ 표 2] Monthly LCD 패널평균가격추이 ( 단위 : USD) 2012/02 2012/03 2012/04 2012/05 2012/06 2012/07 2012/08 2012/09 2012/10 2012/11 2012/12 2013/01 2013/02 2013/03 Blended LCD Panel Price 97 97 97 97 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 107 107 106 %MOM -0.9% -0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.8% -0.6% TV Price Blended 172 171 171 172 203 203 203 203 204 205 206 205 204 203 32" LED HD 155 154 155 155 156 156 156 157 158 1 1 1 159 157 42" LED FHD 269 268 268 271 274 275 275 275 276 278 278 278 276 275 47" LED FHD n.a n.a n.a n.a 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 367 365 55" LED FHD 548 538 533 528 528 524 521 518 515 515 515 513 511 509 %MoM Blended -1.1% -0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 17.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% -0.1% -0.7% -0.5% 32" LED HD -2.2% -0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.9% -0.9% 42" LED FHD -0.4% -0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% -0.2% -0.7% -0.2% 47" LED FHD n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% 55" LED FHD -1.8% -1.8% -0.9% -0.8% 0.0% -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% MNT Price Blended 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 76 76 75 75 74 73 72 18.5" LED HD 54 54 54 55 55 56 56 56 56 56 55 54 53 53 20" LED HD+ 63 63 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 64 64 63 63 21.5" LED FHD 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 77 77 77 76 75 74 73 23" LED FHD 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 86 85 84 84 27" LED FHD 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 144 142 1 138 137 135 133 %MoM Blended -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% -0.6% -0.9% -1.4% -1.1% 18.5" LED HD -1.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4% -0.9% -1.8% -0.5% 20" LED HD+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.8% -1.6% -0.4% 21.5" LED FHD -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -1.3% -1.7% -1.4% 23" LED FHD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.9% -0.6% -1.2% -0.9% 27" LED FHD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.4% -1.4% -1.1% -1.1% -1.5% -1.1% NB Price Blended 45 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 44 43 43 43 42 42 13.3" LED HD 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42 14" LED HD 38 37 37 38 38 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 35 35 15.6" LED HD 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 38 37 37 37 37 17.3" LED HD+ 58 58 58 58 58 57 57 57 57 56 56 56 55 55 %MoM Blended -0.8% -0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% -0.2% -0.7% -0.9% -0.6% -0.9% -0.7% -0.6% -0.7% -0.4% 13.3" LED HD 0.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -1.1% -1.0% -0.8% -0.7% -0.5% -0.6% -0.8% 14" LED HD -1.3% -1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.8% -0.9% -0.5% -1.0% -0.8% -0.8% -1.0% -0.1% 15.6" LED HD -1.3% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.3% -0.8% -1.0% -0.8% -0.8% -1.1% -0.8% -0.7% -0.4% 17.3" LED HD+ -0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.7% -0.7% -0.2% -0.9% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -0.3% 주 : Blended Price 는주요패널의사이즈별출하비중에따른수치임 Compliance Notice 이자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. ( 작성자 : 박유악 ) 4 Research Center
디스플레이ㅣ산업분석 상기종목에대하여 2013 년 03 월 06 일기준당사및조사분석담당자는규정상고지하여야할재산적이해관계가없습니다. 당사는본조사분석자료를기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는 2013 년 03 월 06 일기준으로지난 1 년간위조사분석자료에언급한종목들의유가증권발행에참여한적이없습니다. 당사는 2013 년 03 월 06 일현재상기종목의발행주식을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나, 당사는그정확성이나안전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용할수없습니다. 투자등급예시 (6 개월기준 ) 기업 산업 Buy( 매수 ) 시장대비초과수익률 20% 이상기대 Overweight 비중확대 Outperform( 시장수익률상회 ) 시장대비초과수익률 10% ~ 20% 기대 Neutral 중립 Marketperform( 시장수익률 ) 시장대비초과수익률 -10% ~ 10% 기대 Underweight 비중축소 Underperform( 시장수익률하회 ) 시장대비초과수익률 -10% 이하기대 N/R(Not Rated) 투자의견없음 Research Center 5