010 번호통합및중장기번호자원관리방안연구

010 번호통합및중장기번호자원관리방안연구 2009. 11

1, 010., 010.. 010 010, 010..,. 01X 010 010 3G., 010,,

2., 010 010 /3G.,,.. 010,,. 2009 11

3 1 9 1 19 1 19 2 20 1. 20 2. 010 22 3. 25 4. 28 2 010 31 1 010 31 1. 31 2. 32 3. 36 2 010 37 1., 38 2. 39 3. 41 4. 010 46 5. 48 3 50

4 1 50 1. 50 2. 50 3. 51 4. 83 2 87 1. 87 2. 010 93 3. 3G 100 4, 104 1 010 104 1. 104 2. 108 2 110 1. 010 110 2. 112 3 114 1. 114 2. 115 5 117 1 117 2 118 119

5 1 1 24 1 2 27 2 1 33 2 2 34 2 3 35 2 4 010 35 3 1 010 50 3 2 01X 51 3 3 51 3 4 52 3 5 53 3 6 54 3 7 55 3 8 56 3 9 56 3 10 57 3 11 57 3 12 58 3 13 58 3 14 010 59 3 15 010 64 3 16 010 ( ) 65

6 3 17 010 65 3 18 01X 66 3 19 010 66 3 20 010 (01X ) 67 3 21 010 (01X ) 68 3 22 010 / 68 3 23 010 69 3 24 010 69 3 25 010 70 3 26 3G 73 3 27 2G 3G 74 3 28 010 76 3 29 010 _% 81 3 30 010 96 3 31 98 3 32 SKT 3G 2G, 3G 102

7 1 1 26 3 1 52 3 2 53 3 3 55 3 4 010 59 3 5 010 60 3 6 010 60 3 7 010 61 3 8 010 62 3 9 010 62 3 10 010 63 3 11 010 70 3 12 3G 71 3 13 3G 71 3 14 3G 72 3 15 3G 73 3 16 3G 73 3 17 2G 3G 74 3 18 3G 2G 75 3 19 3G 75 3 20 77 3 21 010 77

8 3 22 1 78 3 23 010 78 3 24 010 010 79 3 25 79 3 26 010 80 3 27 010 (n=1,080, %) 80 3 28 010 / 82 3 29 010 82 3 30 010 83 3 31 01X 83 3 32 010 84 3 33 010 85 3 34 01X 86 3 35 01X 86 3 36 Logit 91 3 37 010 010 94 3 38 95 3 39 010 (2003. 42020. 4 ) 95 3 40 010 01X 010 97 3 41 (Max=1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5) 97 3 42 010 01X 99 3 43 2G 3G 101 3 44 SKT 3G 101 4 1 WCDMA 108 4 2 KT 2G 110

9 1 010.,,,.,.,.,., 010 80%

10. 2 010,. 010,. 010,,. ( ) 2002 1, 010, 010 3G, ra( 07. 9. 1) 010 010. 010.. (),

11,,... 010.,,.,. 3 01X /,,,,.,. 010, (93%).

12,. 010 (Barrier) (Trigger), /., 010, 70% 010. 010 ( ). 010, /.. 010, 01X. 010 2012 3 010 1%p 010 4,422 90.9%. 2014 3 0.5%p, 010 4,702 95.9% 010. 100% 010 01X. 2G SKT 3G, 2011 2 2012 4 3G 90% SKT 2G 240. 2G 120

13 2011 2 2013 2, 100 2G 2011 3 2013 2 3G 97%.,,,. 4, 1) 2). 1-1) 1-2), 1-1-1) 1-1-2), 1-1-3) 1-1-4) (,, ). 1-2-1) 2G/3G 1-2-2)..,., WCDMA., 3G, 2G,,

14 3G 2G 2G. 2G 2G, 2G. 2G. 010 01X., 01X, 01X..,,..,., 010.,. 1%p, 0.5%p, 0.1%p

15 12 3, 14 3 17 2 2013, 2015 2018. 1 1%p, 0.5%p, 0.1%p (: ) 010 (%p) 010 01X 12.3Q 90.9% 0.9%p 48,646 44,219 4,427 14.3Q 95.9% 0.4%p 49,043 47,023 2,020 17.2Q 98.7% 0.1%p 49,274 48,622 652, 100%. 2 01X 01X (: ) 2012.3Q 2014.3Q 2017.2Q 010 90.9% 95.9% 98.7% Max=1.0 4,427 2,020 652 Max=1.1 4,806 2,208 716 Max=1.2 5,171 2,391 779 Max=1.3 5,520 2,569 841 Max=1.4 5,855 2,744 902 Max=1.5 6,177 2,913 963.

16, (2013, 2015, 2018 ). 2G,.,, 1) 2).,, 2G.,.,.,,., 1). 5 010 80%,.,

17..

1 19 1 1 010., 010,,, 010 2G/3G. 1. 010,.. 2. 2002, 2G.,,.. 3

20,. 4 5 6, 1,800 010, 2G/3G,,. 4 1 3 010.,,., 5. 2 1., 01X-XXX-XXXX, 01X- XXXX-XXXX, 01X 010 010-XXXX-XXXX.,,,

1 21..,., 010 (indirect policy) (derived policy).,,,. 010.,.,,.,.,,.

22.., 010.,,.,..,.. 2. 010.

1 23 1984 ( SK ), 011. 1996 2 ( SK ) 017, 1997 (KTF, KT ), PCS(KTF ) LG PCS 016, 018, 019. =.,..,.. 3G, 3G 010, 3G 5 2G (011, 016, 017, 018, 019). 2003 12, 2G 010., 2G 010,,, (011, 016, 017, 018, 019)

24 010., 010 010, 80% 010. 010 010 2G, 5 (4 ),. 1 1 84. 3 96. 4 97. 10 02. 2 03. 2 03. 12 04. 12 06. 4 07. 9 ( SKT) ( 011) (SKT ) ( 017) PCS 3 KTF: 016, PCS(KTF ): 018, LGT: 019 2G (011, 016, 017, 018, 019) 3G 010, 010 3G 5 2G 2G 010 04 2G 010, 3G 5 2G 010 010 010 80% 010 010 80% 3G 5 010 3G 010 010 3G LGT rev.a 010 LGT rev.a( 07. 9. 1 ) 010, 2G rev.a 010

1 25 010,,., 2004, 010.,. 010, 06 4 010 3G. 3G, 010 09 9 77.6%, 10 80%, 010 95%. 3. 010 02...,,. 010, 2002.

26 2004,... 1 1 (: ) 50,000 49,000 48,000 47,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 :,. (digit),,. 3G (011, 016, 017, 018, 019), 5000

1 27. 3G 010,, 6. 6. 1 2 1995 45,092,991 2013 49,162,816 1996 45,524,681 2014 49,227,451 1997 45,953,580 2015 49,277,094 1998 46,286,503 2016 49,311,793 1999 46,616,677 2017 49,332,392 2000 47,008,111 2018 49,340,350 2001 47,357,362 2019 49,337,991 2002 47,622,179 2020 49,325,689 2003 47,859,311 2021 49,299,993 2004 48,039,415 2022 49,263,040 2005 48,138,077 2023 49,219,121 2006 48,297,184 2024 49,167,733 2007 48,456,369 2025 49,107,949 2008 48,606,787 2026 49,038,710 2009 48,746,693 2027 48,958,603 2010 48,874,539 2028 48,865,746 2011 48,988,833 2029 48,758,260 2012 49,083,184 2030 48,634,571 : (http://kosis.kr) 1 3 1 3 2030. 1%,

28 2018 4,934. 5,000, 1 200%,., 4. 5 01Y(Y=0 9)..,,,. 4. 010

1 29. 010 010,., 010 80%,. 010,..,, 6 01Y(Y: 0 9).,, 010. 80% 010,,,,.

30,.,,.

2 010 31 2 010 1 010 1.,.. 010,. 010,. 3G, 6 (010, 011, 016, 017, 018, 019) 8 (01Y-NNN-NNN) 1,., PCS,

32.,,. 010. 010 010.,.,.. 010. 010. 2..,,,,,,.,,,,., 2.

2 010 33 2 1 6 ( ) ( ) ITU. command and control.,,,. 2G,,

34 brand. 2 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00Y 01Y IMT- 2000 (KT) ( ) ( ), TRS, (HT) ( ) 02 03Y UMS 04Y 05Y 06Y 07Y 08Y 09Y (KT) ( ) () (HT) : 0N0 (SK ) () PCS PCS PCS (SK ),,,..,

2 010 35., 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 2 SKT(3G) LGT(2G 019) KTF(2G 016) KTF(3G) 3 KTF(2G) SKT(2G) KTF(2G 016) SKT(2G 011) LGT(2G) 4 KTF(2G 018) SKT(2G 017) 5 SKT(2G 011) LGT(2G 019) 6 SKT(2G 017) KTF(2G 018) 7 SKT(2G 011) KTF(2G 016) LGT(2G 019) LGT(2G 019) 8 LGT(2G 019) SKT(2G 011) 9 SKT(2G 011) KTF(2G 016) : 2 4 010 2G 011 3 011 200 499 011 500 899 011 9000 9499 SKT 011 4 011 9500 9999 011 1700 1799 017 3 011 200 499 011 500 899 016 3 016 200 499 016 500 899 KTF 016 4 016 9000 9499 016 9500 9999 018 3 018 200 499 018 500 899 LGT 019 3 019 200 499 019 500 899 019 4 019 9000 9499 019 9500 9999 : 2G 010 010 5200 5499 010 3500 3899 010 9000 9499 010 8500 8999 010 7100 7199 010 6200 6499 010 4500 4899 010 3200 3499 010 2500 2899 010 7000 7499 010 9500 9999 010 4200 4499 010 6500 6899 010 2200 2499 010 5500 5899 010 8000 8499 010 7500 7999

36.,.,,.. 3. 2004. 1 010 010.. 2002. 1,. 2G (011, 016, 017, 018, 019) 3G (010) 3G 3G 1, 2G2G-3G, 2G, 2G-3G 010 010., 2G-3G 2G 3G 010 2G 010, 3G 5 2G. 2003. 1 2G

2 010 37 010 010 3G 5 2G., 2003. 12 2G 010. 2G 010 1, 010 010 80 90%. 2004. 12 010 010, (2006. 3 ) 010. 2006. 4 010 3G. 010 010 3G. 2007. 10 LGT ra( 07. 9. 1 ) 010. 2 010.. 010..

38..,, 1). 1., () 3.,..,,.,..,.. 36 1), 010,, 2009. 10,,, 2009. 10, 010,, 2009. 10

2 010 39.,.., 21,. 36 ( ). 1.. 2. ( 2009-14,, 2009. 4. 7) ( ). 2...

40.. 010,,..,..,..........,.

2 010 41... 010.. 98 ( ), ( ), ( ). 1, 19. 4 3., ( 2006.5.12. 2005 346 ).. 3.,.,,,.

42 ( 19 3 )..,,..,...,. ( ).,,,,., ( ), 36 1

2 010 43, ( 19 3 ), ( 8 6 ), ( 21 ), ( 22 ),,, 36 3,,.,,,.., ( 2006. 5. 12. 2005 346 ),.

44..,... 010.....,.,,.

2 010 45..,,.....,.,,., ( 98 ).,.?..,, 4 3

46.,..,,.,.,..,,.,.. 4. 010,..

2 010 47,,.,,,..,.,.,., 23 1,. ( )..(9536;99574),,.

48.,.,,....... 5...,...

2 010 49.,.,.. 010.....,,...

50 3 1 1.. 2004 010 010 70% 010. 2., 6 (,,,,, ), 19 59. 01X, 01X(011, 016, 017, 018, 019) 70%, 010 30%. X X. 3 1 010 (: ) 19 29 30 39 40 49 50 59 SK /T 108 95 82 48 333 KTF / SHOW 83 77 63 35 258 LG /OZ 36 36 35 22 129 ( ) 227 208 180 105 720

3 51 3 2 01X (: ) 19 29 30 39 40 49 50 59 ( ) 011 78 160 196 169 603 016 40 72 63 42 217 017 7 38 34 20 99 018 4 19 21 15 59 019 4 34 39 25 102 ( ) 133 323 353 271 1,080 3.. 01X / 010 1) 01X 81, 010 40 2. 011/017. 3 3 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 2 20.4 18.2 28.9 15.9 15.1 23.0 52.6 2 4 18.5 15.5 24.3 9.7 29.1 26.2 18.5 4 6 6.6 4.2 11.0 7.1 8.3 10.4 8.3 6 8 6.6 6.9 8.3 1.9 3.2 7.6 4.9 8 10 15.8 16.8 12.0 21.1 13.3 13.9 7.6 10 32.1 38.4 15.5 44.3 30.1 19.0 8.1 () 80.8 90.0 58.4 96.8 72.6 63.4 39.7

52 01X 44% 010, 011/017 01X. 3 4 01X 011 016 017 018 019 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 44.2 53.0 26.3 54.3 29.3 29.7 26.7 55.8 47.0 73.7 45.7 70.7 70.3 73.3. 01X 39%,. 3 1 (: %)

3 53, 010. 01X. 3 2 (: %) 2) 01X 10, 2 1 10. 011/017. 3 5 (: %) 01X 011 016 017 018 019 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) 7 6.6 5.6 11.0 2.0 4.8 8.5 78 7.5 6.7 12.9 1.0 3.3 8.9

54 01X 011 016 017 018 019 89 10.4 10.8 9.3 3.6 8.4 18.7 910 12.9 12.2 12.3 18.4 9.8 14.3 10 49.2 52.8 41.8 59.9 50.7 31.7 / 13.6 11.9 12.7 15.0 22.9 18.0 () 119 124 109 126 119 107 01X 93%, 010 86%. 017 77%. 3 6 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 63.5 65.8 53.2 77.4 68.3 56.2 56.0 29.5 28.6 36.7 15.7 25.0 36.0 29.6 4.0 2.9 6.1 2.9 4.9 6.0 8.5 2.7 2.5 3.4 4.0 1.7 1.8 4.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 ( ) 1.46 1.43 1.61 1.33 1.40 1.53 1.66,. 10%.

3 55 3 3 (: %) 010 54, 01X 96 2. 017 126. 3 7 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 30 6.6 5.9 9.7 3.0 7.3 7.6 34.9 3050 19.2 18.7 22.1 15.3 15.7 21.1 22.2 50100 36.2 36.0 36.2 40.5 29.4 37.6 25.4 100200 26.8 27.8 23.7 25.4 27.7 28.9 12.7 200 11.2 11.7 8.3 15.7 20.0 4.8 4.9 ( ) 95.7 98.9 79.1 126.2 106.6 75.9 53.6

56 3) 01X 010. 3 8 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 3 9.3 8.6 9.1 7.8 18.2 10.4 12.8 3 22.8 19.3 30.5 17.2 23.5 31.7 24.3 4 22.3 19.6 24.8 24.7 25.0 29.2 23.8 5 22.6 26.2 17.6 26.9 17.0 11.3 17.6 6 7 12.4 13.9 10.0 12.0 9.9 9.7 10.1 8 10.6 12.3 8.0 11.3 6.5 7.7 11.4 01X 010, 010 01X. 3 9 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 79.8 81.1 78.5 78.6 80.0 75.7 71.5 1.6 19.5 18.2 20.9 20.8 19.8 23.1 25.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.9

3 57 01X 71%, 29%, 010 20% 01X. 3 10 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 71.3 68.9 76.1 69.4 72.2 75.9 80.5 28.7 31.1 23.9 30.6 27.8 24.1 19.5 01X 22, 3 17%. 010 13.5. 3 11 01X 011 016 017 018 019 (: %) 010 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 1 20.9 22.9 17.5 23.5 17.8 15.2 46.4 1 2 37.0 37.4 39.5 33.7 33.3 34.1 37.6 2 3 25.2 24.6 24.3 24.1 30.6 28.8 12.2 3 16.9 15.0 18.6 18.7 18.3 21.8 3.8 () 22.0 21.4 22.5 22.3 23.1 23.7 13.5 4) 01X 20 50.

58 3 12 01X (: %) 010 011 016 017 018 019 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 19 29 12.3 12.9 16.0 7.0 11.7 6.7 31.5 30 39 29.9 26.2 34.7 37.0 31.7 33.7 28.9 40 49 32.7 33.2 29.6 32.0 33.3 36.5 25.0 50 59 25.1 27.7 19.7 24.0 23.3 23.1 14.6, 01X 29% 010. 011, 017, 018/019. 3 13 01X (: %) 010 011 016 017 018 019 : (1,080) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (720) 28.5 31.3 24.7 28.4 23.2 23.0 16.9 / / 19.2 20.2 16.3 21.0 23.8 15.1 19.9 // 5.2 6.2 4.4 4.7 1.6 3.9 5.3 // 20.8 19.6 24.0 22.8 20.6 19.0 21.0 23.1 19.5 25.0 21.8 30.9 37.1 20.7 / 2.7 2.7 5.2 1.3 14.6 / 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.7. 010 1) 010 01X 82% 010, 18%., 50 75% 010.

3 59 3 4 010 (: %) 01X 2 1, 010, 57% 010. 010 01X 50%., 010. 3 14 010 01X (: %) 20 30 40 50 : (1,080) (133) (323) (353) (271) (548) (532) (467) (613) 3G 010 41.2 52.9 42.5 40.6 34.6 43.2 39.1 44.9 38.3 010 51.9 58.7 50.2 52.3 50.0 53.3 50.4 56.4 48.4 010 56.5 63.5 58.5 59.4 46.9 56.3 56.7 61.7 52.5 010 50.0 55.8 54.3 50.1 42.0 51.8 48.2 68.5 35.9 01X 24% 010

60,.. 2) 010 01X 52%,,. 017, 10 01X. 3 5 010 010 010 8 3 6 010 (: %)

3 61 63%, 26%., 010 /. 010. 3 7 010 (: %)

62 3 8 010 (: %) 01X 61% 010. 017 / 010, 10 65% 010. 3 9 010 (: %)

3 63 010 01X 30%, 01X 48% 010. 010 3 10 010 (: %)

64 38.9%. 01X 010.. 01X 72%. 010 01X. 010,. 010 70% 010 /. 3) 01X 01X 3 2 010 01X,. 3 15 010 01X 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 : (1,080) (133) (323) (353) (271) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) 010 01X 66.6 73.1 66.8 67.4 62.2 67.3 65.8 67.7 62.1 65.8 010 33.4 26.9 33.2 32.6 37.8 32.7 34.2 32.3 37.9 34.2 010 01X 60% 2 01X. 011, 017 01X.

3 65 3 16 010 ( ) (: %) 01X 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 : (719) (97) (216) (238) (169) (405) (413) (37) (37) (67) 1 40.2 44.7 35.4 41.7 41.6 38.1 49.7 27.9 42.9 43.7 2 41.0 34.2 43.5 40.2 42.7 40.2 39.2 42.3 48.3 44.1 3 18.8 21.1 21.1 18.1 15.7 21.7 11.1 29.8 8.8 12.1 010 36%,,., 017, 018. 3 17 010 01X (: %) 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 : (719) (97) (216) (238) (169) (405) (413) (37) (37) (67) / 36.3 31.6 34.4 37.0 40.4 34.9 38.9 23.9 40.3 49.4 22.8 25.0 22.5 22.8 21.9 25.5 18.0 20.4 16.5 22.8 13.6 22.4 13.4 12.2 10.7 12.7 17.7 12.2 18.7 8.5 10.4 5.3 10.5 9.8 14.0 9.9 7.5 17.5 19.4 8.1 7.2 2.6 6.2 11.0 5.6 6.8 7.4 13.2 7.7 2.8 6.0 3.9 9.1 5.9 3.4 4.7 7.0 11.7 5.4 6.4 01X 43%. 20 3G 2G 28%.

66 3 18 01X 01X (: %) 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 : (719) (97) (216) (238) (169) (405) (413) (37) (37) (67) 3G, 2G 43.3 40.8 40.7 46.5 43.8 41.5 39.3 44.9 50.4 57.4 43.1 39.5 49.8 40.2 41.0 45.6 42.4 44.5 43.5 28.2 18.9 27.6 21.1 15.0 16.9 17.7 18.5 21.1 30.8 18.6 2.4 3.9 1.0 2.4 3.4 1.9 6.0 1.5. 010 ( 010 ) 1) 010 010 58% 010, SK 010. 3 19 010 010 (: %) 2G/3G 20 30 40 50 SKT/ T KTF/ SHOW LGT/ OZ 2G 3G/ A : 720 227 208 180 105 333 258 129 242 487 010 010 010 30.1 24.7 31.7 32.2 35.2 36.3 28.7 17.1 26.9 31.8 57.5 51.5 62.5 63.3 50.5 50.8 60.9 68.2 57.0 57.7 12.4 23.8 5.8 4.4 14.3 12.9 10.5 14.7 16.1 10.5

3 67 010, 010 53% 010 010 43%. 3 20 010 (01X ) 010 (: %) 2G/3G 20 30 40 50 SKT/ T KTF/ SHOW LGT/ OZ 2G 3G/ A : 631 173 196 172 90 290 231 110 203 428 010 010 010 010 010 5.4 4.6 6.1 6.4 3.3 4.1 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.1 37.2 33.5 38.3 35.5 45.6 39.7 35.1 35.5 41.4 35.3 53.4 57.8 51.5 53.5 48.9 53.1 53.2 54.5 49.8 55.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.5 2.2 2.4 3.5 3.6 2.0 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.9 010 60% 010, 010 88% 010.,. 3G/ A 9% 010.

68 3 21 010 (01X ) 010 (: %) 2G/3G 20 30 40 50 SKT/ T KTF/ SHOW LGT/ OZ 2G 3G/ A : 631 173 196 172 90 290 231 110 203 428 010 010 3G 59.6 55.5 56.6 62.8 67.8 58.3 58.0 66.4 65.0 57.0 28.4 34.1 31.6 22.1 22.2 27.9 29.9 26.4 27.1 29.0 6.3 8.7 5.6 6.4 3.3 8.3 5.6 2.7 1.5 8.6 3.5 0.6 3.1 5.2 6.7 4.1 3.0 2.7 5.4 2.6 2) 010 010 / 49.1%,., /.,. 3 22 010 / (: %) 010 20 30 40 50 : 631 173 196 172 90 49.1 55.5 50.5 41.9 46.8 26.9 27.2 33.2 22.1 22.2 20.8 23.1 15.8 22.7 23.3 12.5 10.4 12.8 14.5 12.2 9.4 8.1 8.2 11.0 11.1 (, ) 9.0 5.8 8.7 9.9 14.4

3 69 010 010 66%,. 20 30 40%. 3 23 010 (: %) 010 20 30 40 50 : 631 173 196 172 90 65.5 57.8 66.8 68.6 72.2 38.7 48.6 40.3 30.8 31.1 25.8 20.8 28.1 25.6 31.1 2.9 3.5 3.6 1.7 2.2 010 78% 010 6, 1 4%. 94% 1. 3 24 010 (: %) 010 20 30 40 50 : 631 173 196 172 90 1 14.9 17.3 17.3 12.2 10.0 2 3 32.5 37.0 28.1 32.0 34.4 4 6 30.6 24.9 33.2 32.0 33.3 7 9 5.5 6.9 2.6 7.0 6.7 10 12 12.7 12.7 14.8 9.9 13.3 13 3.8 1.2 4.1 7.0 2.2

70 3 25 010 (: %) 010 20 30 40 50 : 631 173 196 172 90 3 38.8 46.8 37.2 34.9 34.4 6 31.2 27.2 32.1 33.7 32.2 1 23.8 23.1 23.5 23.8 25.6 1 6 6.2 2.9 7.1 7.6 7.8 010 50% 010, 35%. (W/C). 3 11 010 (: %). 3G 1) 2G 3G 3G 01X 59%, 010 74%. 01X 2 30 70%, 40 50 3G.

3 71 3 12 3G (: %) 3G 2.76,. 2G 010 3G 3.1 01X 2.76. 3 13 3G (: %) 01X 3G 14%,

72 77%. 3G. 2G 010 2.7 01X. 3 14 3G (: %) 3G 01X 2.21,. 016 010 2G. 3G, 3G. 3G., 3G, 3G 01X 29% 010. 2) 3G 3G /, /., 3G.

3 73 3 15 3G (: %) 3 16 3G 3 26 3G (: %) 3G 20 30 40 50 : 478 160 144 120 54 1 38.7 26.9 39.6 45.0 57.4 1+2 56.7 47.5 57.6 59.2 75.9 1 31.8 35.6 32.6 29.2 24.1 1+2 69.9 66.3 68.8 74.2 74.1 1 12.3 15.0 7.6 15.0 11.1 1+2 31.2 33.8 29.2 32.5 25.9 1 10.5 12.5 13.2 5.8 7.4 1+2 22.4 28.1 23.6 19.2 9.3

74 2G 3G, 3G 65% 3G 2G, 3G 2G 27%. 2G 3G, 3G. 3 27 2G 3G 3G 20 30 40 50 SKT/T KTF/ SHOW (: %) LGT/ OZ : (478) (160) (144) (120) (54) (227) (212) (39) 2G 3G 2.7 3.8 2.1 2.5 1.9 4.0 1.4 2.6 2G 3G 3.8 3.8 4.2 3.3 3.7 3.1 4.2 5.1 64.6 62.5 59.7 70.0 72.2 66.1 63.2 64.1 3G 2G 18.8 20.0 22.2 15.8 13.0 19.4 18.9 15.4 3G 2G 8.4 8.1 10.4 6.7 7.4 6.2 10.4 10.3 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3G, 3G 3G. 3 17 2G 3G (: %)

3 75 3G 2G. 3 18 3G 2G (: %) 3G 84% 3G. 3 19 3G (: %). 010 1) 010 01X 010 2.3, 01X 20% 010. 50, 011, 017 010.,

76 10, 75% 010. 010 52% 010, 010, 50., 20 36% 010. 3 28 010 01X (: %) 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 : (341) (50) (118) (108) (65) (163) (92) (28) (19) (39) 010 3G 52.2 48.7 45.6 54.8 62.3 48.5 60.5 42.8 56.4 52.9 28.0 35.9 28.9 25.2 24.6 30.7 20.1 36.2 27.5 29.4 9.2 12.8 13.2 5.2 5.8 10.1 8.6 7.0 16.1 5.0 8.6 9.6 12.2 7.2 9.5 7.4 10.7 10.0 2) 01X 80% 010,.

3 77 3 20 (: %) 010 0.17, 20% 23% 3%., 20, 40 /50 010. 3 21 010 (: %) 01X 1 34%..

78 3 22 1 (: %) 1, 0.28. 3 23 010 (: %) 70% 010 010 2.47.

3 79 3 24 010 010 (: %) 01X 59% 010 01X, 50. 3 25 (: %) 010 3.1,.

80 3 26 010 (: %) 010 10 30 5, 20, 30 4+5 21%, 49%. 010 4+5 19.6% 20 21%, 01X 20. 30 010. 3 27 010 (n=1,080, %)

3 81, 010 2.8 0.5., 15%,. 01X 35% 010,. 10 42%. 3 29 010 _% 01X 20 30 40 50 011 016 017 018 019 8 8 10 10 : (1080) (133) (323) (353) (271) (602) (217) (99) (59) (102) (151) (251) (531) 80% 18.0 21.2 21.1 15.9 15.4 14.6 21.7 17.2 11.3 34.7 19.9 21.5 15.2 81 90% 29.8 29.8 34.5 28.1 26.2 28.2 35.2 21.8 40.1 28.9 34.3 34.8 24.8 91 95% 10.1 11.5 6.4 11.4 12.2 11.0 9.4 14.1 6.4 4.8 6.8 10.8 11.6 96 100% 6.8 5.8 8.0 6.1 7.0 8.2 3.3 5.9 10.3 5.0 9.2 6.4 6.3 35.3 31.7 30.0 38.5 39.2 37.9 30.4 40.9 31.9 26.5 29.7 26.5 42.1 01X 35% 010,. 10 42%.

82 3 28 010 / (: %) 3) 010 010, 010 48%, 010 /,. 3 29 010 (: %) 010 TV 90%,, /. 60%,,.

3 83 3 30 010 (: %) 4.. 01X 01X / 3 31 01X

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3 85. 01X / 010 (Barrier) (Trigger), /., 010, 70% 010. 3 33 010. 01X 010 ( ). 010, /.

86 3 34 01X 010 변경의향이유 번호변경편의서비스에대한태도 태도변용에의영향력 (Impact) 수준 사회환경요인 나중엔다 010 으로바뀔것같음 52.2% 번호변경안내일괄문자서비스제시후긍정 19% 증가 高 ( 높음 ) 정책 / 홍보요인 경제적요인 유사번호정보전달후긍정태도 9% 증가, 부정태도 13% 감소 실제이용자비중정보전달후부정적태도 8% 감소단말기를저렴하게바꿀수있을것같음 28.0% 번호변경알림서비스인지후긍정적태도 3% 증가 低 ( 낮음 ). 01X. 010, 01X. 3 35 01X 의사결정패턴 (Decision-making) 감성적이성적 (Emotional) (Rational) 태도변용차원 010 번호통합캠페인시강조내용 관여수준 (Involve ment Level) 고관여 (High) 저관여 (Low) 현재감성적번호로열티 향후태도변용현재구체적정보부족 혜택알림 (Benefit) 설득적홍보 (Understanding) 문제해결 (Problem solving) 010 통합으로인한사용자혜택 48.0% 010 번호통합의취지 / 사유 32.0% 010 번호변경에따른불편점해소지원방안 20.0%

3 87 2 1. (network), (network externality).,.,, (diffusion model) (qualitative response model).. (Bass), (Logit) (Probit).. (diffusion model), 1960.. S (innovator) (imitator) (potential growth limit) (saturation effect).

88 (dynamic behavior). S. Bass. Bass. (hazard function)., (probability density function), (cumulative density function),, (coefficient). (innovation coefficient), (imitation coefficient).,. (solution).

3 89,,,,..,,,,, (ordinary least square method) (maximum likelihood method) (multiple linear regression model).,.,,,,. :

90 : : Bass (continuous time function), (discrete time function). :,,,,. 2 Bass. Bass

3 91. (observation),, Bass.. (quantitative response model) (qualitative variable),. (Logit) (Probit). Logit (cumulative logistic distribution function) Probit. Logit Probit, Probit curve. curve Logit. Logit. 3 36 Logit 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0-10 -9-8 -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

92 010 Logit. 010 ( ) 0 1 S, Bass. 3 36 Logit. ( ) ( ).. (cumulative logistic distribution function). Logit. ln ln, (OLS). logit. 010 3G (interval).

3 93.. (trend variable, ), 2.,. 2. 010. 010 010 010,, 010 010. 010. 010 (010/). 010, t(0 ) hat. hat (20102020 ) 010.. (interpolation). 010 Logit (20102020 )

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3 95 50000 3 38 (: ) 49000 48000 47000 46000 45000 44000 43000 42000 41000 '93.4Q '94.4Q '95.4Q '96.4Q '97.4Q '98.4Q '99.4Q '00.4Q '01.4Q '02.4Q '03.4Q '04.4Q '05.4Q '06.4Q '07.4Q '08.4Q : 추정인구. Logit 010 Logit 010 2012 3 1%p. 2014 3 0.5%p. 2012 3 4,865 90.9% 4,422 010. 3 39 010 (2003. 42020. 4 ) 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 '03.4Q '04.4Q '05.4Q '06.4Q '07.4Q '08.4Q 09.4Q 10.4Q 11.4Q 12.4Q 13.4Q 14.4Q 15.4Q 16.4Q 17.4Q 18.4Q 19.4Q 20.4Q 실측치 추정치

96 3 30 010 (: ) 010 (%p) 010 10.2Q 79.4% 1.8%p 47,693 37,870 10.3Q 81.1% 1.7%p 47,841 38,789 10.4Q 82.6% 1.6%p 47,976 39,652 11.1Q 84.1% 1.5%p 48,100 40,459 11.2Q 85.5% 1.4%p 48,213 41,211 11.3Q 86.7% 1.3%p 48,316 41,910 11.4Q 87.9% 1.2%p 48,411 42,558 12.1Q 89.0% 1.1%p 48,496 43,157 12.2Q 90.0% 1.0%p 48,575 43,710 12.3Q 90.9% 0.9%p 48,646 44,219 12.4Q 91.7% 0.8%p 48,712 44,687 13.1Q 92.5% 0.8%p 48,772 45,116 13.2Q 93.2% 0.7%p 48,828 45,510 13.3Q 93.8% 0.6%p 48,878 45,870 13.4Q 94.4% 0.6%p 48,925 46,200 14.1Q 95.0% 0.5%p 48,967 46,499 14.2Q 95.4% 0.5%p 49,007 46,774 14.3Q 95.9% 0.4%p 49,043 47,023 2014 3 4,904 95.9% 4,702 010. 2012 3 01X 443 2014 4 01X 202. 010 0.1%p 2017 2, 010 98.7%, 01X 65.

3 97 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 3 40 010 01X 010 (: ) 4,427 2,020 652 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 10.1Q 11.1Q 12.1Q 13.1Q 14.1Q 15.1Q 16.1Q 17.1Q 18.1Q 19.1Q 20.1Q 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 010 이용자수 01X 이용자수전환율증감. Logit 1 1.5 6 010. 3 41. 3 41 (Max=1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5) 150% max=1.5 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% max=1.4 max=1.3 max=1.2 max=1.1 max=1.0 90% 10.1Q 11.1Q 12.1Q 13.1Q 14.1Q 15.1Q 16.1Q 17.1Q 18.1Q 19.1Q 20.1Q

98 010 010 01X., 100% 120% 010 (%p) 1%p 500 01X. 3 31 (: ) 2012.3Q 2014.3Q 2017.2Q 010 90.9% 95.9% 98.7% Max=1.0 99.2% 99.7% 99.9% Max=1.1 107.6% 108.9% 109.6% Max=1.2 115.8% 118.0% 119.2% Max=1.3 123.6% 126.8% 128.7% Max=1.4 131.1% 135.4% 138.1% Max=1.5 138.3% 143.7% 147.4% Max=1.0 44,219 47,023 48,622 Max=1.1 48,005 51,393 53,358 010 Max=1.2 51,645 55,658 58,039 Max=1.3 55,135 59,815 62,663 Max=1.4 58,482 63,869 67,231 Max=1.5 61,696 67,825 71,745 Max=1.0 4,427 2,020 652 Max=1.1 4,806 2,208 716 01X Max=1.2 5,171 2,391 779 Max=1.3 5,520 2,569 841 Max=1.4 5,855 2,744 902 Max=1.5 6,177 2,913 963 Max=1.0 48,646 49,043 49,274 Max=1.1 52,812 53,601 54,074 Max=1.2 56,816 58,048 58,818 Max=1.3 60,655 62,384 63,504 Max=1.4 64,337 66,613 68,133 Max=1.5 67,873 70,739 72,708

3 99 3 42 010 01X (: )

100 3. 3G. 3G 01X 2G, 2G 010. 2G 2G 2G. (FA). 2G 2FA=2.5MHz 2G 240, 1FA=1.25MHz 2G 120.,,,. 2G 2G 100. 3G (, ). KT 3G 2009 2 70% 2G 30 2010 2 KT 2G, 2G. SKT 2009 2 3G 45.5% 2G, 2G SKT.. KT SKT 3G 2009 2 2,126. 3G 2004 1 2007, 2 3G 45.2%. 2009 2 3G

3 101 2007 1 61.8%. 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 127 3 43 2G 3G 175 177 482 973 4,252 15,078 49,081 338,385 (: ) 21,258,101 16,505,536 5,512,294 12,344,056 3,200,052 18,672,045 14,682,460 9,055,606 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 - '04.1Q '05.1Q '06.1Q '07.1Q '08.1Q '09.1Q : 2G 가입자수 3G 가입자수. 3G SKT 2007 1 2009 3 50.5% SKT, SKT 3G. 3 44 SKT 3G (: %) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SKT 3G 가입자율 linear square log

102 3G 2011 2 2012 4 90% SKT 2G 240. 2G 120 2011 2 2013 2, 100 2G 2011 3 2013 2 2G 97%. 3 32 SKT 3G 2G, 3G (: ) 3G 2G 3G 10.1Q 62.4 64.4 57.0 9,029 8,549 10,326 14,974 15,455 13,677 10.2Q 67.8 70.5 60.7 7,758 7,115 9,455 16,327 16,970 14,630 10.3Q 73.2 76.6 64.4 6,476 5,650 8,608 17,684 18,510 15,552 10.4Q 78.6 82.9 67.9 5,184 4,154 7,784 19,044 20,074 16,444 11.1Q 84.0 89.2 71.3 3,885 2,629 6,982 20,406 21,661 17,308 11.2Q 89.4 95.6 74.5 2,578 1,076 6,202 21,770 23,272 18,145 11.3Q 94.8 N/A 77.7 1,264 N/A 5,443 23,136 N/A 18,957 11.4Q N/A N/A 80.8 N/A N/A 4,703 N/A N/A 19,745 12.1Q N/A N/A 83.7 N/A N/A 3,982 N/A N/A 20,509 12.2Q N/A N/A 86.6 N/A N/A 3,278 N/A N/A 21,252 12.3Q N/A N/A 89.4 N/A N/A 2,593 N/A N/A 21,974 12.4Q N/A N/A 92.2 N/A N/A 1,923 N/A N/A 22,676 13.1Q N/A N/A 94.8 N/A N/A 1,270 N/A N/A 23,360 13.2Q N/A N/A 97.4 N/A N/A 632 N/A N/A 24,026,,. 3G,, SKT KTF

3 103., 3G., SKT 2G 2G,. SKT 2G, 2G, 2G 3G, 3G, 2G. SKT 2G, SKT 2G.

104 4,,,,. 1 010,.. 1....,.,.

4, 105,..,..,..,,. 010,.. 010.

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4, 107. 010 3G. 010 3G 010. 010 3G, 3G. 2006, 3G 010. 01X 3G 010, 01X 3G. 3G., 010 3G, 2G 01X 010+3G 01X+2G.,,..,.

108 2..,,. CDMA EVDO Rev.A(Oz) LGT, CDMA WCDMA SKT KT. 4 1 WCDMA 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2007 2008 2009 KT SKT 2G 3G,. 4 1 3G.

4, 109 3G 09 8 SKT 48.71%, KT 75.09%, KT SKT. 09 8 KT 2G 370,. 2G.. 2G 3G 010. 2G+01X 2G 29.4%,, 2G.. 4 2 3G KT 2G. 30 2010 2/4 KT 2G, 2G. 2G 2G 2G., 2G,

110. 4 2 KT 2G 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 2007-06-01 2007-12-01 2008-06-01 2008-12-01 2009-06-01 2.,,. 1. 010,., 01X 01X.

4, 111..,.,.,..,...,,.,.,,.

112 2., ( ).. 010. 01X.,., 010 2012 3 1%, 010 90.90%, 01X 443. 010 0.5% 2014 3, 010 95.88%, 01X 202. 01X 50 2018 1 010 99.03%, 010 0.1%p. (). CDMA WCDMA. KT, 5MHz(1FA) CDMA. SKT, 2011 2G, 5MHz 480 2010 4 2011 4, 2.5MHz, 240 2011 2 2012 4, 1.25MHz, 120 2011 2 2013 2.

4, 113,, 2G/3G,. 2G,.,. 2G... 2G. 1, 2 3.. 01X 01X 2. 4.

114 3,,,... 1. 2G. 2G., 2G ( ),.,...

4, 115.,. 01X. ( 90%), 3%. 97%.. 2.,.,.,,., 2G.

116 2G.,..

5 117 5 1 010.,.,,..,,,,.,.,. 010 80%

118 ( ) 010 ( ),. 2004. 2 010. PSTN,, 3G Wibro LTE, FMC FMS...

119 (2007). Ofcom VoIP, 19 6 413, 2007. 4,, 2002. 12,, KISDI, 2005. 12,, KISDI, 2006. 7, 010, 2007. 6, KISDI,, 2008. 12, KISDI (2008),,, 23 2, 2008. 4 (2003),, KISDI 03-30, 2003. 12, :, KISDI, 2002 (2008),, LGERI, 2008. 6 (2001),,, 2001. 1,, KISDI, 2002. 12 (2000),,, 2000. 12 (2005),, KISDI 05-09, 2005. 12

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