www.expertchoice.co.kr 1 1 AHP 2 Expert Choice
www.expertchoice.co.kr 2 ; the Survival of the Fittest "It is not the strongest of the species that survives nor the most intelligent, it is those most adaptive to change." From Origin of Species by Charles Robert Darwin
www.expertchoice.co.kr 3 ; the Survival of the Fittest ( ) : (Mission) : (Vision) Mission Vision : (Strategy) Quality Management -> Strategy Management Do things right. Do right things. Do right things right! Do right things right! -> AHP.. : SFO(BSC), 66, TQM
www.expertchoice.co.kr 4 Pareto s s Principle: The 80-20 Rule,. Vital Few and Trivial Many a few(20%) many(80%). 20% 80% ( ). 20% 80% 20% 80% 20%( 10% 10%) 80% 80% 20% 20% 20%, 20% 20% 80% : 20%!! (( ) -> AHP
www.expertchoice.co.kr 5 Pareto s s Principle: The 80-20 Rule 1. Vision-Driven Decision Making 2. Ruthless Prioritization 3. A Decision-Enabling Culture Speed as a Corporate Virtue ; Empowerment A passion for Information Sharing A Willingness to Take Risks 4. Redefinition of Decision Ownership 5. Humanized Network 6. Connectivity through Process 7. Banking on Memory [12 Decision Leaders in the world] AES Corporation, Robert Bosch(Australia) Pty. Ltd., Citigroup Inc. Corning Incorporated, DaimlerChrysler AG, Fuji Photo Film, U.S.A, Inc. The Home Depot, Inc., Honeywell International Inc., Intel Corporation Johnson & Johnson, Novell Inc., Oracle Corporation Decision Making in the Digital Age (Dec. 2000) - Challenge and Responses-
www.expertchoice.co.kr 6 1. AHP / / 2. AHP 3 /3 3. AHP / 4. AHP /
www.expertchoice.co.kr 7 BOGSAT, Group Failure Plunging In, Shooting from the Hip Dominance by Leader, Frame Blindness, Lack of Frame Control Fooling Yourself about Feedback Seat of the Pants Approach, Shortsighted Shortcuts
www.expertchoice.co.kr 8 AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process: / Analytic:.. Hierarchy:. Process:,.
www.expertchoice.co.kr 9 AHP 1970 Pennsylvania Thomas L. Saaty, game utility ( 3 ) " 60, 20,000,,
www.expertchoice.co.kr 10 AHP 3 /3 3 (Hierarchies) (Priorities) (Consistency) AHP 3 ( ) 3 Goal, Alternatives, Criteria(Sub-criteria)
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 11 11 5-9...,... ;
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 12 12 :
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 13 13 : ( )
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 14 14 :
www.expertchoice.co.kr 15 ( ) 1:1 ( ) 1. 2. 3. 1-9 1:, 3:, 5:, 7:, 9: 2, 4, 6, 8: * 9.
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 16 16 ( ) 1 1/4 1/4 1/3 1/3 *4 *4 1 2 *3 *3 *1/2 *1/2 1 1. 1. ( *, ) 2. 2. 8 7/4 7/4 10/3 10/3 3. 3.,, *,. 0.1226 0.1226 0.3679 0.3679 1/8 1/8 1/7 1/7 1/10 1/10 0.5571 0.5571 1.6714 1.6714 4/8 4/8 4/7 4/7 6/10 6/10 0.3202 0.3202 0.9607 0.9607 3/8 3/8 2/7 2/7 3/10 3/10
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 17 17 * 0.2480 0.2480 0.2570 0.2570 0.5770 0.5770 D-car car 0.2120 0.2120 0.0740 0.0740 0.0600 0.0600 K-car car 0.2390 0.2390 0.2900 0.2900 0.2470 0.2470 S-car car 0.3010 0.3010 0.3790 0.3790 0.1160 0.1160 H-car car 0.1220 0.1220 0.5584 0.5584 0.3196 0.3196 0.3280 0.3280 D-car car 0.0940 0.0940 K-car car 0.2720 0.2720 S-car car 0.3060 0.3060 H-car car = * D-car car ( )
www.expertchoice.co.kr 18 (, ). ) A=5B, B=2C, then A=10C -> 0.1
www.expertchoice.co.kr www.expertchoice.co.kr 19 19 ( ) 1. 1. ( ) 1 1/4 1/4 1/3 1/3 4 1 2 3 1/2 1/2 1 (0.1226) (0.1226) (0.5571) (0.5571) (0.3202) (0.3202) 2. 2. 0.3686 0.3686 0.1226 0.1226 0.1393 0.1393 0.1067 0.1067 1.6879 1.6879 0.4904 0.4904 0.5571 0.5571 0.6404 0.6404 0.9666 0.9666 0.3678 0.3678 0.2786 0.2786 0.3202 0.3202
www.expertchoice.co.kr 20 / ( ) 3. 0.9666 1.6879 * 0.3202 0.5571 = 3.0186 3.0298 0.3686 0.1226 3.0066 4. ג max (3.0186 + 3.0298 + 3.0066) /3 = 3.0183 5. CI = ( CI = ג) max max n) / (n - 1) CI = (3.0183 3) / 2 = 0.0183 / 2 = 0.0092 6. (CR) = CI / RI = 0.0092 / 0.52 = 0.018
www.expertchoice.co.kr 21 AHP KDI,,,,,
www.expertchoice.co.kr 22 AHP /, ( ) (W-I ),, 100% ( ) / ( ) * Why How,,
www.expertchoice.co.kr 23 AHP (A) A), (1/A) A) (, ) A=2, U=(0.322, 0.221, 0.247, 0.210) 2002 D, D 1, 22.
www.expertchoice.co.kr 24 AHP AHP! 7 AHP 0.177 0.019 0.042 0.116 0.190 0.129 0.327 : 0.022 0.180 0.010 0.040 0.120 0.180 0.140 0.330 AHP.
www.expertchoice.co.kr 25 AHP,,,,,,,,,,, M&A, R&D, Risk Management Marketing,, Life-cycle /,,, Public Relations, (QC, TQC ) (,,,, ),,,,
www.expertchoice.co.kr 26 AHP Cost Optimization Diagnostic Management Human Resources Management Medical Practice Guidelines Organizational Development Policy Development Quality Assurance/Improvement Resource Allocation Risk Assessment Source Selection Strategic Planning Surveying Other Applications Monash University Rochester School of Medicine Army, Waltham Police Department George Washington University, Rechester General Hospital Support Centers of America, University of Western Sydney, Environment and Policy Institute Stainless and Magnetic Steel Divisions, Latrobe Steel Company,.. Ford Motor Company, Army, Conoco,, FAA, Korea Telecom Authority,.. FAA, University of Hawaii Navy, SA, Royal Institute of Technology, Fulcrum Ingenieria Ltd., USDA, Naval Postgraduate School, Madigan Army Medical Center, University of Kentucky Argentine Congress, Naval War College, British Colombia Ferry Corporation, Apex Environmental, DOE,.. Benefit/Cost Analysis, Marketing Strategies, POM, M&A, Credit Analysis, Performance Evaluation, Selecting Alternatives,.
www.expertchoice.co.kr 27 AHP /,,, The US Postal Service, etc,, South Africa,,,,, etc. :, The world Bank, SA, Anderson Consulting, Deloitte & Touche,, The Wharton School, Harvard University (KDI),,,, KAIST,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,, GM, IBM, AT&T, Citibank, Xerox, Boeing, Exxon, 3M, Amoco, GE Conoco Oil, Rockwell International, Allstate Insurance, Alcoa,,,,,,,, PowerVenture
www.expertchoice.co.kr 28 AHP
www.expertchoice.co.kr 29 1. / 2.
www.expertchoice.co.kr 30 Group Maintenance Problem Abstraction Structure Analysis Leadership Effectiveness Learning Scope Development of Alternatives Breadth Depth Faithfulness of Judgments Breadth and Depth of Analysis Structuring Analogy, Association Boundary Examination Brainstorming/Brainwriting Brainwriting Morphological Connection Why-What What s s Stopping Very Very Ordering and Ranking Voting Nominal Group Technique Delphi Disjointed Incrementalism Matrix Evaluation Goal Programming Conjoint Analysis Outranking Very Very Structuring and Measuring Bayesian Analysis MAUT/MAVT AHP Very Very Very Very Very
: NPV, ROI, EVA, Payback Period 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 78 77 78 73 65 39 42 41 21 31 38 33 23 21 18 36 24 19 10 0 Source: Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., and Kleinschmidt, E.J., Best practices for managing R&D portfolios, Research-Technology Management, 41, 4, July-Aug. 1998, 20-33. www.expertchoice.co.kr 31
www.expertchoice.co.kr 32,!!!,,. 3.76 4.08 3.95 4.11 3.37 3.77 3.82 3.70 3.50 3.72 3.59 3.00 2.79 3.22 3.13 2.90 2.80 3.08 3.20 3.20 2.50 2.93 2.70 2.25
www.expertchoice.co.kr 33 (KM) KM)AHP & EC KMCI(Knowledge Management Consortium International) KM KMCI K-STREAM, ROI,,, EC, KM. KMCI, Joseph M. Firestone-
www.expertchoice.co.kr 34 (QFD) QFD)AHP & EC QFDI(Quality Function Deployment Institute) QFD: QFD EC EC, QFD. QFD, Glenn Mazur-
www.expertchoice.co.kr 35 (HRM) HRM)AHP & EC Catella Consortium Securicor EC. EC.. Catella, Marna Cilliers-hartlief hartlief-
www.expertchoice.co.kr 36 Moral or Prudential Algebra