2011 방송통신시장전망

2011 방송통신시장전망 2010.12

1. 2010,. 1990.,. ICT,..,,....

2,,,,,,,, IPTV,,,.. KTB, KT,.,.. 2010 12

3 1 11 1 17 1 2011 17 1. 17 2. 2011 18 3. 2011 19 4. VAR 21 2 23 1. 23 2. 27 3. N- 31 2 2011 35 3 39 1 39 1. 39 2. 52 3., 63 4. 65

4 2 72 1. 72 2. 79 3. (PP) 87 3 98 1. IPTV 98 2. 103 4 111 1. 111 2. 118 4 ( ) 125 1 125 1. 125 2. 126 2 126 3 135 1. 135 2. 135 5 138 1. 138 2. 140 143

5 1 1,, 18 1 2 GDP 19 1 3 ( ) 21 1 4 10-11 PC 24 1 5 PC 25 1 6 TV 26 1 7 LG U+ yo 28 1 8 KT 29 1 9 SKT TB 30 1 10 N- 31 2 1 35 2 2 36 2 3 38 3 1 39 3 2 40 3 3 41 3 4 42 3 5 42 3 6 43 3 7 ( ) 44 3 8 46

6 3 9 47 3 10 48 3 11 49 3 12 49 3 13 50 3 14 52 3 15 53 3 16 55 3 17 Wi-Fi 57 3 18 61 3 19, 63 3 20 MVNO 64 3 21 65 3 22 IDC 66 3 23 72 3 24 74 3 25 78 3 26 79 3 27 82 3 28 TU 84 3 29 MSO ( 10 9 ) 85 3 30 MSO ARPU( 09 ) 86 3 31 87 3 32 HCN TV ARPU 88 3 33 ( 09. 3 vs 10. 3 ) 89 3 34 10 91

7 3 35 92 3 36 93 3 37 IPTV 98 3 38 IPTV 99 3 39 IPTV 99 3 40 IPTV 100 3 41 Qook TV Skylife (2010. 12 ) 102 3 42 103 3 43 103 3 44 3 104 3 45 111 3 46 117 3 47 118 4 1 ( ) 128 4 2 ( ) 134

8 1 1,, 17 1 2 20 1 3 CSI 20 1 4 ( ) 22 1 5 ( ) 22 1 6 10-11 24 1 7 N- 33 3 1 40 3 2 45 3 3 3 48 3 4 3 ARPU( ) 54 3 5 56 3 6 58 3 7 58 3 8 59 3 9 3 ARPU 60 3 10 IDC 66 3 11 GDP 68 3 12 69 3 13 72 3 14 73

9 3 15 DMB 75 3 16 GDP 76 3 17 80 3 18 81 3 19 TV 85 3 20 TV ARPU 86 3 21 IPTV 88 3 22 TV ( 10.1 10.12) 89 3 23 TV 90 3 24 90 3 25 93 3 26 CJ 94 3 27 SBS 95 3 28 PP 96 3 29 CJ E&M 97 3 30 IPTV 98 3 31 IPTV 102 3 32 (KAI) ( ) 105 3 33 106 3 34 108 3 35 1 108 3 36 110 3 37 116 3 38 1 116 3 39 LCD TV 119 3 40 LCD TV LED CCFL TV 123

10 4 1 1% ( ) 129 4 2 1% ( ) 130 4 3 1% ( ) 132 4 4 1% ( ) 133 5 1 GDP 138 5 2 139

11 1.,.. 2., 2010,, 2011,. 3.. 2011, 2010,, VAR

12 KISDI, 2011 2010. 2011, 2010. VAR 2010 2011.,.,,, PC, TV,,.,.,.,.. 07 10%, 08 20%, 09 30% 2010 25~35%. 10 6 50%. (Lock-In)., N-.

13, PC, TV, N-. N-. 2010 2011. 2010 3.5% 145.3.,, IPTV 5.1% 62 9,030.,, TV 2.2% 82 3,721. 1.9% 383. 2011 3.5% 150.4.,,, IPTV 6.1% 66 7,572.,. PP,.

14 IPTV,., TV, 1.6% 83 6,594., 2.9% 393.. 3D TV, LED TV TV.,. DSGE. DSGE., ( ) 1%, 2.5%,,,. 4%, 1%... 1% (+) (, 1% ), 1%.

15,,,. 2%, 0.6%. (+).... DSGE ( ).,. ICT.,. TV.,, TV IPTV.,..,.,

16. ICT,,. 4...,,, VoIP, IPTV,.

1 17 1 1 2011 1. 2008 2009 2010 2008 4-4.5% 2008 4-4.5%, -6.7% 2010 3 1.3% 3.5% 2008 2009 1 1,, : ECOS

18 1 1,, 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 ( : %) 2010 3-0.1-4.5 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.2 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.1-4.5 0.3 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.0-6.7 0.4 3.9 2.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 3.5 : 2005, : ECOS 2. 2011 IMF 2010 10 2011 2010 IMF 2010 GDP 4.8% 6.1% 2011 4.2%, 4.5% 11 VAR KISDI 2011 2010 2010 9 2011 GDP 4%, KDI 2011 GDP 4.2% 2010 12 2010 6.1%, 2010 2011 GDP 4.5% 2010,, IMF 2010

1 19 2010, 2011 1 2 GDP IMF OECD KDI 2010 10 2010 7 2010 11 12 2010 2010 11 ( : %) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-0.6 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.2 6.1 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0-0.6 4.6 4.3 0.2 5.7 5.0-3.4 2.8 2.3 2.8 0.2 6.2 4.3 4.8 0.2 6.1 4.5-6.2 4.2 2010 9-5.9 3.8 2010 0.2 5.1-5 : GDP GDP, 2010, 2011 OECD OECD total : IMF, World Economic Outlook.(2010. 7, 2010. 10) OECD Economic Outlook No. 88(2010. 11), 2010 (2010. 7) KDI, KDI (2010. 11), SERI Economic Outlook(2010. 5, 2010. 9) 3. 2011, (, )

20 1 2 :, :. 2010 1 3 CSI : 2011 ( ) 4.1%, KDI 4.1% 2011

1 21 ( (smoothing) 2008 ) 1 3 ( ) ( : %) 2009 2010 2011 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 2010 12 0.2 5.0( ) 3.4( ) 4.2 3.8 4.5 4.1 KDI 2010 11-6.3 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.1 6.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 2010 9-5.0 3.0 4.0-3.5 6.2 3.5 2.5 2.7 2010 5 0.2 4.8( ) 2.7( ) 3.7 : :, 2010 (2010. 7), KDI, KDI (2010. 11),, SERI Economic Outlook(2010. 5, 2010. 9) 2011, 2010 4. VAR 1) 2010 2011 VAR 2010 2011 1),

22 1 4 ( ) :,, 2010/4Q KISDI : 1. IPTV. 2. KAIT, 3. VAR, VAR 4. (,, ) 1 5 ( ) :,, 2010/4Q KISDI :

1 23 2 1.,,,, OS,,,, OS ios, 10 20%, 11 24% 10 50%, 11 60% 09 09 80 1.7% 10 10 524.5 10.4% 10 700, 11 30%

24 1 6 10-11 ( : ) 350 300 스마트폰세계 세계비중 스마트폰북미 북미비중 312 60.4% 70.0% 60.0% 250 244 50.3% 50.0% 200 40.0% 150 30.0% 100 19.8% 72 24.2% 88 20.0% 50 10.0% 0 2010 년 2011 년 0.0% : OVUM(2010.4a), OVUM(2010.4b) PC 5 10 Wi-Fi 3G,, 10 13~19 11 3 37~55 1 4 10-11 PC ( : ) 2010 2011 Gartner 19 55 JP Morgan 15 36 Morgan Stanley 15 50 isuppli 12.9 36.5 :, (2010)

1 25 PC 10 11 KT 10 8 PC, 10 11 SK 3G, 1 5 PC 2.1 ios 3.2 2.2 7 LCD 9.7 LCD 7 LCD 8G/ 16G/32G/64G( ) 16G/ 300 300 Wi-Fi+WiBro Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi+3G Wi-Fi+3G DMB,,,,, T, :, (2010) TV TV TV 10 TV 17%, 11 23% TV, LED TV 3D TV TV

26 TV 10 TV 13%, 11 23% 1 6 TV 2010 2011 TV 220 245 TV 38 56 17% 23% TV 2.3 2.4 TV 0.29 0.54 13% 23% : KT (2010a) ( : ), TV TV 10 10 Sony Logitech TV TV (Chrome) Adobe Flash PC,, DB,,,,,, O/S,,

1 27 CP API 2. 07 7 09 6 KT 10 LG ( LG U+) 09 KISDI 44% 2) 50% TV TV,, VoIP 09 IPTV,, IPTV, VoIP,, 2) (2009)

28 07 10%, 08 20%, 09 30% 2010 25~35%, 10 6 3 LG U + yo (6 15 ) KT (7 1 ), SK TB (9 16 ) 50% LG U + yo 1~5,,, TV 2 yo 44~50% 1 7 LG U+ yo yo ( ) yo yo 1~2, 9~16 9 44% yo 1~3 070, OZ 070, 12~24 12 50% yo 1~5 TV 15~30 15 50% : 1. (yoyo ) 2. (yoyo ) KT

1 29 7,000, 50% (5 ) 1 8 KT IPTV ( ) 36,000 5,200 (10,000) 12,000 ( ) 42,000 41% Small Medium Large ( ) 65,000 95,000 125,000 ( ) 60,000 ( 556 3,000 ) 110,000 ( 1,019 5,500 ) 160,000 ( 1,481 8,000 ) 10~46% 23~44% 28~43% ( ) 100,000 130,000 160,000 7,000 : 1. QOOK / ( 100M), QOOKTV /QTS. 10,800 2. /, 3~5. SK TB T, 2, 3, 4 + 25~37%

30 1 9 SKT TB 2 3 4 + B + B + B +B ( ) ( ) (%) 32,000 24,000 25.0 56,000 36,000 35.7 76,000 48,000 36.8 B 200 (8,000 ) B (20,000 ) B 200 +B (28,000 ) : 1. 3, 2.. 3., / 4. 12,000. (Lock-In) (Lock-In),, IPTV VoIP,, 50% 1 TV IPTV TV,

1 31 3. N- PC, TV, N- N- TV, PC,, (seamless) N- TPS, AT&T 3 N-,,, N-, TV N- 1 10 N- AT&T, (CATV/ ) CBS TV-PC & /MS / PC TV / /,

32 N-, AT&T U-Verse TV(IPTV), U-Verse On The Go(PC) Cingular TV( ) 3, Masters TV-PC, Comcast TV everywhere 3 iphone (Fancast) TV, (,, ) PC ( TV, ) MS 7 PC, TV VOD N- ( PC,,,, TV),, (, )

1 33,, TV 1 7 N-, N- KT 10 5 (OCP) N-, PC, IPTV, (SoIP), MID (OS) 5 SKT IPTV( TV), PC(Nate, TV ON), (TU, Nate, T-store) N- TV CJ 10 6 TV

34 WebTV TVing, Seamless N- N-,,,, IPTV N-, T-Commerce M-Commerce

2 2011 35 2 2011 2010 2011 145.3 (3.5% ), 382.5 ( 1.9% ) 150.4 (3.5% ), 393.5 (2.9% ) 2 1 ( :,, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 57.3 59.8 (4.4) 62.9 (5.1) 66.8 (6.1) 42.7 43.6 (2.2) 44.3 (1.7) 46.2 (4.2) 8.6 8.9 (2.8) 9.7 (9.5) 10.3 (5.6) 6.0 7.4 (21.8) 8.8 (20.2) 10.3 (16.3) 82.7 80.6 (-2.6) 82.4 (2.2) 83.7 (1.6) 450.2 390.1 (-13.4) 382.5 (-1.9) 393.5 (2.9) 140.1 140.4 (0.2) 145.3 (3.5) 150.4 (3.5) : 1. ( ) 2. : 2009 KAIT,, IPTV 3, NIPA 2010 KISDI 2010 3.5% 145.3,, IPTV,, TV

36 2011 3.5% 150.4,,, IPTV, TV, 2 2 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( :, %) 426,617 435,981 (2.2) 443,452 (1.7) 462,118 (4.2) 180,693 174,640 (-3.3) 171,699 (-1.7) 170,621 (-0.6) 183,290 195,570 (6.7) 206,742 (5.7) 218,714 (5.8) 21,694 17,821 (-17.9) 11,638 (-34.7) 12,125 (4.2) 40,940 47,950 (17.1) 53,374 (11.8) 60,658 (13.6) 86,272 88,684 (2.8) 97,078 (9.5) 102,533 (5.6) 34,131 32,674 (-4.3) 35,604 (9.0) 36,931 (3.7) 21,604 23,006 (6.5) 24,589 (6.9) 25,924 (5.4) 30,537 33,004 ( 8.1 ) 36,885 ( 11.8 ) 39,678 (7.6) 60,427 73,613 (21.8) 88,500 (20.2) 102,921 (16.3) IPTV 1,150 2,203 (91.6) 3,950 (79.3) 5,321 (34.7) 59,277 71,242 (20.2) 84,550 (18.7) 97,600 (15.4) 573,316 598,278 (4.4) 629,030 (5.1) 667,572 (6.1) : 1. ( ) : 2009 KAIT,, 2010 KISDI

2 2011 37 2010 5.1% 62 9,030,,, PP TV IPTV, 2011 6.1% 66 7,572, PP, IPTV,

38 2 3 ( :,, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 698,457 678,619 (-2.8) 682,932 (0.6) 686,503 (0.5) 35,899 30,849 (-14.1) 27,387 (-11.2) 26,942 (-1.6) 128,936 127,201 (-1.3) 140,789 (10.7) 150,091 (6.6) 9,122 8,158 (-10.6) 10,867 (33.2) 12,406 (14.2) 827,393 805,820 (-2.6) 823,721 (2.2) 836,594 (1.6) 45,021 39,007 (-13.4) 38,254 (-1.9) 39,348 (2.9) : 1. ( ) : 2009 KAIT, NIPA 2010 KISDI 2010 2.2% 82 3,721, 1.9% 383, TV TV 2011 1.6% 83 6,594, 2.9% 393 3D TV, LED TV TV

3 39 3 1 1. 3 1 ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 67,291 65,476 (-2.7) 64,152 (-2.0) 63,042 (-1.7) 29,037 26,395 (-9.1) 25,252 (-4.3) 25,795 (2.1) / 31,003 31,573 (1.8) 29,545 (-6.4) 29,154 (-1.3) 44,971 43,226 (-3.9) 43,695 (1.1) 43,415 (-0.6) 180,693 174,640 (-3.3) 171,699 (-1.7) 170,621 (-0.6) : ( ) : 2009 KAIT, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 1.7% 17 1,699,, / 1.7% 2010 2.0% 6 4,152,

40 3 1 ( : ) : KISDI 2008 6 3 2 ( : ) KT SK LGU+ SK KT SK ( ) 5,200 4,500 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 (3 ) 39 39 38 38 39 36 39 1 39 39 (3 ) 2 261 250 38 38 39 39 39 (10 ) 14.5 14.5 11.7 11.7 13.0 11.9 13.0 (1, ) 282 50 50 50 49 50 : (2010.8) (2004.10)

3 41 3 3 :, SK, LGU+,,, SK,, SDS, 2010 / 6.4% 2 9,545, 2007 2009 SK 32.77 33.40 32.93, KT 39.60 38.70 37.96, LGU+ 45.13 39.08 38.53 2010 4.3% 2 5,252 KT SK SKT, KT 09 1~5 (6 KT ), SK 09 1~9 (10 SK

42 ) KTF KT 08 4,439, 09 1 1,132 (KTF, ) 3 4 KT-KTF ( 09.6.1) SK -SKT,, VoIP ('09.9.30.) :, KT KTF ( 4,438.8 ) SK SKT ( 3 ) 08 08, 2009 2010 KT SK 3 5 ( : ) 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 KT 268.3 269.9 280 277.1 277.9 251.6 183.2 186.2 184.5 SK 315.3 332.3 361 387 406 466 484 631 599 SK - - - - 118.7 125.3 117.4 0 0 LGU+ 146.2 147.8 146.9 151.3 192.7 185.3 193.8 203.1 191.9 : IR 2010 1.1% 4 3,695, FTTH SOHO

3 43, 2005 8 2006 SO/RO/NO 102, 2010 6 108 SK, LGU+ SO/RO/NO, 1 KT, SK LGU+ : 6.2%, 4.6%(CAGR 04-08) 3 6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010.8 KT 45.2% 44.3% 43.4% 42.5% 43.0% SK 25.7% 24.9% 22.9% 23.5% 22.0% SKT( ) - - - - 1.2% LGU+ 9.4% 12.2% 14.3% 15.5% 15.9% SO 16.2% 17.0% 18.0% 17.5% 16.7% 3.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% : (2010) IPTV xdsl HFC FTTH FTTH(15.3% 18.4%) (33.7% 34.6%) ( 10.1. 10.8. )

44 3 7 ( ) xdsl LAN HFC FTTH 2010 1 3,176 5,527 5,188 2,510 1 16,403 (19.4) (33.7) (31.6) (15.3) (0.0) 100.0% 2010 8 2,782 5,854 5,122 3,119 31 16,907 (16.5) (34.6) (30.3) (18.4) (0.2) 100.0% :. 2011 1) 2011 0.6% 17 621,, 2011 1.7% 6 3,042,,, PSTN 3 (PSTN) All-IP (migration)

3 45 EC(2007) PSTN VoIP (KISDI 2009) 2011 1,818 2010 4.8%, 1,146 24.5% 3 2 : 2009, KAIT. 2010 KISDI 2011 / 1.3% 2 9,154,,

46 2011 2.1% 2 5,795,,, B2B KT 09 1 12 100 SDS, SK C&C, LG CNS IT 3 8 KT (S.M.ART) SK (IPE) CNI : KTB (2010), IT 3G 4G 3)

3 47 2011 0.6% 4 3,415 1, SOHO 2010 8 1,691 98.6%, SOHO 3 9 ( : ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 12,174 12,968 14,043 14,710 15,475 16,349 17,232 18,146 8.9% 6.5% 8.3% 4.8% 5.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.3% 77.4% 81.2% 86.9% 89.6% 92.8% 96.6% 100.6% 108.5% : : 2009, 2010 KISDI, 3). (backhaul), ( ).,.

48 IP, IPTV, 3 3 3 : KTB (2010) ARPU 3 10 DPS TPS + + + TV + +TV + +TV 30.7% 28.8% 32.6% 35.6% 32.1% : (2010) 2), (PSTN)

3 49 2010 (-)9% (-)4%, 2010 3 11 ( :, %) 10. 1 10. 2 10. 3 10. 4 10. 5 10. 6 10. 7 10. 8 10. 9 10. 10 19,979 19,884 19,803 19,739 19,693 19,622 19,578 19,621 19,444 19,402 9.2% 9.0% 8.5% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 6.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.9% 67.2 74.4 97.3 84.1 70.3 69.0 63.7 53.6 42.9 51.4 : KT,, DID, ISDN. SK,, ISDN. LG, DID/DOD DOD ( ),, DID, : 2010,, 1 KT 2, 3 KT 2008 1 7.6%(4 ) 2010 6 27.8%(2 ) 3 12 ( :, %) 2008.12. 2010.1 2010.6 2010.10 ( ) ( ) 1 LGU+ 1,188,072 2,172,730 2,408,189 2,602,100 LGU+ LGU+ LGU+ (57.5) (31.7) (30,1) (29.6) 2 KT 325530 1,750,224 2,221,778 2,581,256 KT KT KT (15.7) (25.6) (27.8) (29.4) 3 SDS 144,692 SK 1,399,447 SK 1,512,400 SK 1,544,335 (14,3) (20.4) (18.9) (17.6) 4 SK 121,023 731,428 945,005 1,068,425 KCT KCT KCT (5.8) (10.6) (11.8) (12.2) 5 SK 72,958 498,691 551,866 641,823 SDS SDS SDS (3.5) (7.3) (6.9) (7.3) :

50 2010 KT, LGU+, SK, / PSTN 2003 5 +, /, KT +, SK 2010 SK SK, SK B B, 2009, 2010 3 13 ( :, %) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.10 171 151 171 147 126 144 144 129 119 136 102 90 107 92 76 89 89 83 73 85 59.5 59.7 62.8 62.3 60.3 61.8 61.7 64.3 61 62.9 : 08 114,653 41.8%, 09 1,514,641 54.7% : 4) 4),

3 51 All IP,, All-IP (migration) Wi-Fi,, Wi-Fi,, LTE, WiBro (FMC ) Wi-Fi (VoIP) WCDMA - mobile VoIP- VoIP, ( ),

52,,, IPTV,,,,,, ( ) KT-KTF SK SK ( ) 2. 3 14 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( :, %) * 180,325 191,456 (6.2) 202,250 (5.6) 213,957 (5.8) 511 1,531 (199.3) 1,648 (7.7) 1,722 (4.5) 1,022 1,093 (6.9) 1,200 (9.8) 1,297 (8.1) 1,217 1,238 (1.7) 1,404 (13.4) 1,509 (7.5) 215 254 (18.0) 240 (-5.2) 228 (-5.0) 183,290 195,570 (6.7) 206,742 (5.7) 218,714 (5.8) : 1. ( ) 2. *, 09 6 KT 2009 2010 : 2009 KAIT, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 5.7% 20 6,742 09 6 KT

3 53, 2010 5.6% 20 2,250 09 80.6 10 10 524.5 10.4% 3 15 ( : ) 2008 2009 2010.1. 2010.10. 4,560.7 4,794.4 4,822.0 5,032.5 : 22.5 (0.5%) 80.6 (1.7%) 103.2 (2.1%) 524.5 (10.4%) 10,, ARPU 10 3 3 ARPU 15% 09 11 SKT(5 5 4 ), KT (3 2 4 ), ARPU,

54 3 4 3 ARPU( ) 44,000 42,000 KT SKT LG U+ 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 2008.1Q 2008.2Q 2008.3Q 2008.4Q 2009.1Q 2009.2Q 2009.3Q 2009.4Q 2010.1Q 2010.2Q 2010.3Q : IR 10 3 3 1,168 26.3%,, 10 10 3.4 (KT, 2010b) 09 6 KT KT ( 1 ) 09 10. 2011 1) 2011 5.8% 21 8,714,,, PC

3 55 11 Wi-Fi 2011 5.8% 21 3,957 11 4.3% 5,283 11 11 14.7% 3.9 (KT, 2010b) 10 22% 11 20% 08 3, 3 1,500 10 1 1 (, 2010.11.15) (Penetration Rate: ) 10 103.3% 11 107.5% 3 16 ( : ) 2008 2009 2010 2011 48,607 48,747 48,875 48,989 45,607 47,944 50,485 52,675 2,109 2,336 2,558 2,190 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% 4.3% 93.8% 98.4% 103.3% 107.5% : 2005~2009,, 2010 KISDI

56 11 m-voip,,, ( ), ( ) m-voip 09 11 10 50% ARPU ARPU,, ARPU 11 1,650 30%, ARPU ARPU 40% ARPU ARPU( ) ARPU. KT (3 2, 4 5 ), SKT (3 6, 5 7 ) (, 2010) 3 5 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 스마트폰 ( 천개 ) 스마트폰비중 16,500 31.3% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 10,000 20.0% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-7,000 13.9% 806 1.7% 2009년 2010년 2011년 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% :, 2010 KISDI

3 57, PC 2011 PC 2011 150 (KISDI ) Wi-Fi, LTE 3 17 Wi-Fi 2010 2011 SKT - T 1.7-2011 1,000 KT - 4 235 (11 4 ) - 2011 10 LG U+ - 1.6-2011 5 :, (2010) 2),,, SNS ( 09~ 14 ) 108%, 14 66%

58 3 6 : CISCO (2010) 09 8 7 ( 10~ 15) 2% 15 1 ( 10~ 15) 1.7% 10% 3 7 ( : ) 800.0 700.0 600.0 675.8 659.8 663.4 661.5 654.5 640.3 626.5 607.9 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 180.2 208.9 243.5 276.7 307.8 338.5 367.1 392.9 100.0 음성수익 데이터수익 - `08 년 `09 년 `10 년 `11 년 `12 년 `13 년 `14 년 `15 년 : OVUM(2010.5)

3 59 09 190 ( 10~ 15) 0.9% 15 200 ( 10~ 15) 3.0%, 10.9% 3 8 ( : ) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0-15.2 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.4 5.5 4.4 4.9 3.5 3.9 14.0 13.4 12.8 6.7 7.4 6.0 음성수익 데이터수익 `08 년 `09 년 `10 년 `11 년 `12 년 `13 년 `14 년 `15 년 : OVUM(2010.5) 3 ARPU 10% iphone KT ARPU,, PC

60 3 9 3 ARPU 12,000 KT SKT LG U+ 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-2008.1Q 2008.2Q 2008.3Q 2008.4Q 2009.1Q 2009.2Q 2009.3Q 2009.4Q 2010.1Q 2010.2Q 2010.3Q : IR B2B B2B B2B, M2M SK IPE(Industry Productivity Enhancement), KT SMART, LG U+,, UC(Unified Communication),

3 61 UC(unified communication):,, SMS, Email, VoiceMail, FAX 09 2.9 14 5.9 15.3% 3 18 ( : ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ( 09~ 14) 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.2 5.9 15.3% : 2009 IDC, KT : KT (2010b), IT, SW B2B KT (S.M.ART: Save cost Maximize profit Art) 09 1 12 100,, SK IPE B2B,, CNI, SDS, SK C&C, LG CNS IT SDS, 90,,, IT

62 M2M(Machine-to-Machine, ), ICT ( ) (IEEE, ETSI*), IT / / ( ),,,,, Vertical Market M2M 07 5 14 2 8 (ABI Research, 09. 4. 9) Cellular M2M AT&T, Cellular M2M M2M Jasper Wireless, M2M Numerex Sprint Nextel M2M M2M DataSmart, Numerex Verizon ODI M2M M2M M2M 09 1 4,, 87% 5) M2M M2M 5) KT (2010.8), M2M

3 63 SKT, LG U+ Integrator Utility / / IT IT 3., 3 19, ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011, 21,694 17,821 (-17.9) 11,638 (-34.7) 12,125 (4.2) : 1. ( ) : 2009 KAIT, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010, 34.7% 1 1,638 2010, KT (2009) 2010, 2009 KT KT

64. 2011 1) 2011, 4.2% 1 2,125 SK 2010 SK,,, 2011 SK, MVNO, 2011 270 MVNO 11 2010 5 339, 3 20 MVNO MVNO ( ) ( ) ( ) 15 1,673 2,876 KT 36 164 356 KT TRS+ 866 296 328 40 444 522 3 572 885 3 181 250 LGU+ 62 19 7 30 6 3 3 1 1 e-book 10.4 300 38 (Data MVNO) - - 5,228 :. KT (TRS ) 2 ( ) (TRS+ ) : KISDI(2010.7),,

3 65 4. 3 21 ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 15,968 18,880 (18.2) 21,179 (12.2) 25,097 (18.5) 24,535 28,549 (16.4) 31,628 (10.8) 34,948 (10.5) 437 521 (19.2) 568 (9.0) 613 (8.0) 40,940 47,950 (17.1) 53,374 (11.3) 60,658 (13.6) : 1. ( ) : 2009 KAIT, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 11.3% 5 3,374, IDC 10% 2010 12.2% 2 1,179, IDC, IDC KT, LG U+, SK IDC IDC 09 IDC 10 10 3 ( ) 14.9%

66 3 22 IDC 08 09 08-09 09 3Q 10 3Q ( : ) 09-10 3Q KT 2,476 2,160-12.8% 1,565 1,813 15.8% LG U+ 1,361 1,395 2.5% 985 1,017 3.2% SK * 1,083 932-13.9% 664 862 29.8% 4,920 4,487-8.8% 3,214 3,692 14.9% : *SK IDC&Solution : IR, IT 73 IDC 2010 IDC 8% 9,828 IDC IDC 3 10 IDC ( : ) 12,000 41.2% 0.45 10,000 시장규모 증가율 33.6% 9,100 9,828 0.4 0.35 8,000 7,850 0.3 6,000 4,000 3,570 4,162 16.6% 5,560 15.9% 0.25 0.2 0.15 2,000 0.1 8.0% 0.05-2005 년 2006 년 2007 년 2008 년 2009 년 2010 년 (E) 0 : IT (2010.10.25)

3 67 2010 10.8% 3 1,628 (CCIC:Credit Card Information System Service) 10 3 ( ) B2C 30.3% 10 3 ( ) 10.4%, -2.5% B2B 10 3 ( ) B2B 27.0%. 2011 1) 2011 13.6% 6 658 2011 18.5% 2 5,097 11

68, 11 30%, IDC IDC 11 IDC 2011 10.5% 3 4,948 11 11 B2B, 3 11 GDP : 2011 GDP KDI(2010.11) 4.2% :, GDP (, )

3 69 2) IDC IT, N-,, (Computing Cloud) 10~ 11 30% 3 12 ( :, ) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 전세계국내세계성장률국내성장률 796 674 1,095 42.6% 37.6% 961 1,524 39.2% 35.7% 1,304 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 600 0.15 400 0.1 200 0.05-2009 년 2010 년 2011 년 0 : IBM, KT,, KEIT : (2010.9)

70, IBM, IT,,, API, IBM IT ( ) S/W IT,, SDS, LG CNS, SK C&C IT Pilot Project SDS 1,170 600, R&D 09 10, 10 IDC 11 IDC KT IT 90% 11 1,200 LG U+ IDC e IDC

3 71 SK 10 IDC 2.0, IDC 10 ' ' 5 6,146 (4,158 ) 12 10 11, IT (On Demand) Juniper Research( 10.2) 09 4 14 95 6) (Google apps), (Moblie me) SKT T- ( 09.10), KT, U N-, 6) (2010),?, KT

72 2 1. 3 23 ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 34,131 32,674 (-4.3) 35,604 (9.0) 36,931 (3.7) : 1. ( ) 2. : 2009,, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 9% 3 5,604 60%, 09 58.9% 3 13 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.7% 8.7% 12.0% 13.3% 16.0% 18.9% 23.6% 15.1% 15.9% 16.2% 15.8% 15.8% 16.5% 17.6% 78.1% 75.4% 71.8% 70.9% 68.2% 64.6% 58.9% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 기타 수신료 광고 :,,.

3 73 10 13.7% 2 1,860, 3 14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-2,397 2,145 2,127 50.8 2,026 1,907 46.0 1,814 35.7 1,5821,642 1,680 1,770 35.2 1,653 1,689 35.61,654 1,475 28.7 29.3 1,442 1,488 29.1 1,308 1,389 1,101,096 12.9-22.3-33.0-32.3-31.0-28.8-32.6-6.7-17.1-2.7-1.6 ( :, %) 2,028 1,908 1,916 5.2-3.7 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-4.7-5.4-10 -20-30 -40 광고비추이 ( 억원 ) 전년동월대비증감률 (%) : KOBACO, 4/4 10 : 37.8%(1 ), 37.2%(2 ), 0.3%(3 ) 11 TV 16.7% 1 9,990, DMB 65.4% 184

74 3 24 ( : ) 2009 2010 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4 3/4 10 11 3,506 4,699 4,936 5,923 19,064 4,831 6,449 4,950 2,028 1,916 20,174 TV, 3,486 4,668 4,905 5,881 18,940 4,790 6,392 4,899 2,010 1,899 19,990 DMB 20 31 31 43 124 41 57 51 18 17 184-32.0% -28.1% -8.7% 24.4% -12.8% 37.8% 37.2% 0.3% -4.7% -5.4% 16.7% TV/ -32.1% -28.3% -8.8% 24.1% -13.0% 37.4% 36.9% -0.1% -4.8% -5.6% 16.3% DMB -2.7% 39.6% 25.2% 94.4% 39.4% 106.6% 84.9% 63.3% 17.9% 21.4% 65.4% : : KOBACO. 2011 1) 2011 3.7% 3 6,931 11,,, 4.5% 2.3,, (zapping, )

3 75 DMB DMB, DMB 11 23.6% 251 DMB 10 676 3,416 DMB, PC 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-3 15 DMB ( : ) 누적 34,163 30,657 판매 27,392 24,540 21,553 18,731 16,912 15,125 13,029 10,975 9,121 7,529 6,000 4,383 1,524 1,617 1,529 1,592 1,854 2,054 2,096 1,787 1,819 2,822 2,987 2,852 3,265 3,506 2007 1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2008 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2009 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 4Q 2010 1Q 2010 2Q : (2010. 6) 2)

76 ( /GDP), GDP 0.8%, GDP 09 GDP 0.2% 3 16 GDP 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 전체광고대비지상파광고비중 ( 좌 ) GDP 대비전체광고비중 ( 우 ) GDP 대비지상파광고비중 ( 우 ) :,, GDP 11 10,,, 11

3 77 11, / KOBACO (Media Representative) (KOBACO),,,, 08 11 KOBACO 11 11,.,,

78 10 1 5%,, 5% 1/4 3 25 59 3( ) 73 2 7. 1..,. 2.. 3.. 4.. 59 2( ) 73 2 6. 1.. 2.,. 3.. 4.. 5. 100 5.,.

3 79 5., 100 5.,. 6., 4 1., 3 1.. : 6. 4 1., 3 1.. 2. 3 26 ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 16,912 18,168 (7.4) 19,526 (7.5) 20,732 (6.2) 4,692 4,838 (3.1) 5,063 (4.7) 5,192 (2.5) : 1. ( ) 2. 3. DMB : 2009,, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 7.5% 1 9,526 MSO,,,

80 HD (ARPU) 10 9 1,517 IPTV 09 12 10 9 TV 327 09 22% 21.5% 3 17 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 디지털가입자아날로그가입자디지털전환율 18.7% 21.5% 20.3% 25.0% 20.0% 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 7.4% 9.5% 17.5% 16.2% 15.1% 13.8% 12.6% 11.1% 15.0% 10.0% 4,000,000 5.8% 5.0% 2,000,000 0 0.4% 2.0% 05.12 06.12 07.12 08.3 08.6 08.9 08.12 09.3 09.6 09.9 09.12 10.3 10.6 10.9 0.0% : TV 2010 4.7% 5,063 HD HD ARPU Qook TV Skylife IPTV 8% 3,788 10 10 09 11% 273

3 81 10 5 HD 79 3 30.7% 09 10%p 3 18 : TU DMB DMB 4.5% 1,275 TU 10 10 188 09 12 08 6 SKT 6 ( 9, 16 ), (ARPU)

82. 2011 1) 3 27 ( :,, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 15,198 (2.9) 15,295 (0.6) 15,149 (-1.0) 14,849 (-2.0) 4,190 (22.4) 4,457 (6.4) 4,660 (4.5) 4,907 (5.3) : 1. 2. DMB : TV,, 10 KISDI 11 2.0% 1,485 IPTV TV MSO, 10 TV 346 12 DTV TV 11 437 29.5% 11 5.3% 491 HD TV HD, IPTV 11 10% IPTV 10 10 49 11

3 83 DMB, 2011 6.2% 2 732 11, ARPU 6.2% VOD/, ARPU SO MSO, : 73, 58, 35, 16 ( : 2010. 7. 21) 2011 2.5% 5,192 HD, Qook TV Skylife IPTV

84 8% DMB DMB DMB2.0, DMB TU DMB 10 11 SK 3 28 TU ( :, %) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2Q 21,550 88,756 (311.9) 119,718 (34.9) 119,310 (-0.3) 133,434 (11.8) 63,370 (-3.1) -90,398-71,180-63,059-24,986 8,310 5,459-96,487-84,240-74,937-38,207-6,066-1,397 : ( ) : TU 2) TV ARPU TV 09 17.5% 10 9 21.5% TV 05 IPTV 08, MSO 10 10 333

3 85 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-49 3 19 TV < ( )> 152 286 855 574 1,423 1,914 2,318 2,670 3,331 3,097 120 100 80 60 40 20-43 < ( )> 36 70 25 16 27 62 111 99 83 79 73 69 56 57 50 85 80 68 46 : TV 12 TV MSO 11 TV 3 29 MSO ( 10 9 ) : TV C&M CJ ( : ) HCN CMB GS SO 559 907 957 364 42 195 241 17.0% 42.2% 30.8% 27.1% 3.2% 43.3% 6.8% ARPU ARPU 08 5,925 09 6,255 5.6%

86 12,000 3 20 TV ARPU ( : ) 16.0% 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 6,708 4,452 5.3% 11.5% 7,278 8.5% 4,963 14.0% 13.5% 8,298 5,633 9,210 11.0% 5,925 5.2% 9,833 6,255 6.8% 5.6% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2,000 2.1% 2.0% - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.0% 수신료 ARPU/ 월매출액 ARPU/ 월매출액 ARPU 증가율수신료 ARPU 증가율 : :,,, TV ARPU 09 ARPU MSO C&M ARPU 7,651 CJ, GS ARPU, CMB,, SO 5 ARPU 3 30 MSO ARPU( 09 ) ( :, ) ARPU/ 3,411 464 13.6% 7,758 C&M 2,161 741 34.3% 7,651 CJ 2,540 785 30.9% 6,523 HCN 1,351 296 21.9% 5,885 CMB 1,285 29 2.3% 4,409

3 87 ARPU/ 565 28 5.0% 5,126 GS 449 165 36.7% 6,864 SO 3,532 162 4.6% 4,673 :,,, TV 3. (PP) 3 31 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( :, %) (PP) 30,537 33,004 ( 8.1 ) 36,885 ( 11.8 ) 39,678 (7.6) : 1. 2. ( ) : 2009,, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 11.8% 3 6,885,, IPTV TV ARPU TV ( ) IPTV TV 09 1 IPTV 9 100 6 10 4 24 200 1, 12 17 300 IPTV 607 1,075,, (PP) 970 7)

88 86 KT 10 12 120, LG 76 91, SK 23 89 8) 3 21 IPTV ( : ) IPTV 실시간가입자 ( 누적 ) 순증분 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1,236 937 740 595 299 94 147 223 313 375 468 197 53 76 90 62 93 127 145 09. 1 09. 2 09. 3 09. 4 09. 5 09. 6 09. 7 09. 8 09. 9 09. 10 2,001 765 10. 04 1200 3,000 9991000 10. 12 800 600 400 200 0 : 10. 12 12 17 : TV 10 10 255 1,397 10 10 333 909 30.6% 9) TV ARPU TV ARPU 3 3 32 HCN TV ARPU ( : ) 07 08 09 10 3 TV 5,683 5,542 5,421 5,271 TV 17,542 16,223 13,676 13,435 : (2010.12) 7) (2010.10.19) 8) 24(2010.12.06) 9).

3 89 ( ),, 7 12 2 3 22 TV ( 10.1 10.12) 200 100 118.7 106.2 111.7 117 119.6 118 122.2 96.4 101.7 109.2 102.291.8 0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.10 10.11 10.12 : 1) 100, 100 2) 1~3, 4 : KOBACO 3 33 ( 09. 3 vs 10. 3 ) ( : ) 09 3 10 3 ( ) 8,693 9,520 9.5% : (http://dart.fss.or.kr/) TV

90 3 23 TV :, HMC (2010.12) ( ) TV, 08~ 09 10 17.3% 1, 10) 3 24 : (2010.10) 10) (2010.10.01)

3 91 CJ 09 42% 3 34 10 ( : ) GS CJ '09 8,786 7,826 7,012 5,800 2,664 '09 10,693 9,330 9,156 8,200 3,381 21.7% 19.2% 30.6% 41.4% 26.9% :,, : (2010.8.15). 2011 1) 2011 7.6% 3 9,678, IPTV ( ) ARPU TV IPTV, IPTV IPTV TV, TV ( ), N-,

92 3 35 100 200 300 IPTV 2009.1 9 (2009.9) 1 4 (2010.4) 2 (2010.12) 2005.2 3 (2008.2) 4 (2009.2) 5 (2010.5) 2002.3 1 9 (2003.11) 5 (2007.2) : IPTV : ( TV ), IPTV( ) ( ), TV '10 TV ( K, 2010 10 23 18.1%),,,,, '11, '11 ( ), PC, TV 10 700 11 1,650 ( 10 13.9% 11 31.3%) (KISDI ) PC 10 20 11 150 (KISDI ) TV '10 29 '11 54 (KT, 2010a)

3 93 ( ), 3 25 : CJ,, 3 36 CJ CJ CJ 30%( 49%), CJ 44%, 24, 11 1, 625, 188 CJ 56% 10 8 6 24

94 GS : (2010.11) GS 10 3, 24 HomeShop 18 15%, '10 1,000 GS 11 ( 30%), 11 7 3 26 CJ : (2010.8) 2) TV, PP PP, TV TV 9 17

3 95, 12 1, 12 31,,, 4,,,,, 6, 11, SBS, 91 SBS, SBS 1 92 3 27 SBS : (2009.9) TV

96 2 09 PP 2,069 1/2 11), 09 2 40 K2 10 2 120 tvn 11 10 281 2 500 12) tvn, 06 2000 ~3000 7000 MBC 1000 3 28 PP ( : ) : ( ) : TV (2010.12.28) 11) (2010), 09 PP 4,435, 2,069 12) (2010.10.18)

3 97 PP CJ E&M( & ) 6 '11 3, CJ,,, CJ, CJ 6 / TV TV, 3 29 CJ E&M : HMC(2010.12)

98 1. IPTV 3 3 37 IPTV ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 IPTV 1,150 2,203 (91.6) 3,950 (79.3) 5,321 (34.7) : 1. ( ) : 2009, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 IPTV 79.3% 3,950 IPTV 09, 10, 10 1/4 2/4 10 10 335 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 3 30 IPTV 누계 ( 천명 ) 전월대비순증가입자 145 138 139 3,350 135 3,205 3,094 3,000 2,910 110 2,790 2,674 116 119 2,372 2,422 2,499 2,577 111 102 2,233 98 94 2,098 90 1,988 1,789 1,850 77 78 ( : ) 160 140 120 100 80 1,500 1,000 61 49 60 40 500 20-09.7 09.8 09.9 09.10 09.1109.12 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.0410.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 - : VOD :

3 99 KT 189, SK 90, LG 56 3 38 IPTV ( : ) 09.12 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.10 TV 1,172 1,312 1,569 1,640 1,714 1,790 1,891 Btv 856 883 893 880 875 885 904 TV 344 381 447 480 505 530 555 2,372 2,577 2,910 3,000 3,094 3,205 3,350 : VOD : KT, SK, LG IR 10 3 KT 100.6% 1,326, SK 28.3% 889, LG 405.3% 571 3 39 IPTV 2009 2010 ( :, %) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4 3/4 KT 199 211 251 333 994 SK 215 229 249 289 982 LG 36 26 51 114 227 450 466 551 736 2,203 : ( ) : 345 463 518 1,326 (73.4) (119.4) (106.4) (100.6) 261 302 326 889 (21.4) (31.9) (30.9) (28.3) 147 192 232 571 (308.3) (638.5) (354.9) (405.3) 753 957 1,076 2,786 (67.3) (105.4) (95.3) (89.9)

100. 2011 1) 3 40 IPTV ( :, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 IPTV 1,614 2,372 (47.0) 3,583 (51.1) 4,750 (32.6) : 1. ( ) 2. VOD : 2009, 2010 KISDI IPTV 11 32.6% 475 IPTV (ETRC) IPTV IT :IPTV 35.6% IPTV ( : ETRC, 2010. 3) 11 IPTV 34.7% 5,321 IPTV, IPTV SPOTV 10 5. SPOTV,, (UEFA) KPGA, EPGA

3 101, SKYHD IPTV PP 1 7 TV TV KT 10 3 Qook TV, 2),, TPS/QPS,, A la carte' KT IPTV Qook TV Skylife IPTV VOD Qook TV Skylife 93 (HD 21, 3D 1, SD 71 ) VOD 9 3 16,000 IPTV 09 8.7 10 10 49.4 40

102 600 3 31 IPTV ( : ) 500 400 300 227 288 323 417 494 200 100 87 104 121 149-09.12 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10. 06 10. 9 10. 10 : KT 3 41 Qook TV Skylife (2010. 12 ) 3 QOOK Set 3 20,000 16,000 12,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 30,000 24,000 20,000 QOOK Set ( :, ) 93 (HD 21, 3D 1, VOD 9 ) 123 (HD 41, 3D 1, VOD 9 ) 160 (HD 65, 3D 1, VOD 9 ) 31,000 QOOK TV Skylife( ) + 32,000 QOOK TV Skylife + ( ) + / : KT TV (http://www.qook.co.kr)

3 103 2. 3 42 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( :, %) 59,277 71,242 (20.2) 84,550 (18.7) 97,600 (15.4) : 1. ( ) : 2009 KAIT, 2010 KISDI. 2010 2010 18.7% 8 4,550, 20% 10 3 ( ) 24% 12.4% 3 43 2008 2009 2009 3Q 2010 3Q ( : ) 2,243 3,905 74.1% 2,835 3,189 12.5% 9,783 13,107 34.0% 9,246 10,550 14.1% 12,026 17,012 41.5% 12,081 13,739 13.7% : 1., NHN( )*,, ( ),,, YNK,, CJ 9. 2. * NHN : IR

104, 09,, PC, 10 3 ( ) 3 27.6% (2010.11.8) 10 1 5 835 22.5% (CPC),, (2010.11.8) 10 24% 5,656, 21.7% 1 179 3 44 3 ( : ) 2008 2009 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 7,827 8,307 6.1% 6,008 7,432 23.7% 3,310 3,391 2.4% 2,334 3,209 37.5% 11,137 11,699 5.0% 8,342 10,641 27.6% : NHN( ),, SK 3 : IR

3 105 SNS SNS, (KAI) 10, 3 32 (KAI) ( ) 160 140 종합익월전망 TV 광고익월전망인터넷광고익월전망 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 10 년 1 월 10 년 2 월 10 년 3 월 10 년 4 월 10 년 5 월 10 년 6 월 10년 7월 10년 8월 10년 9월 10년 10월 10년 11월 10년 12월 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 전망 :. 2011 1) 2011 15.4% 9 7,600 10 19.1%, 11 18.2%

106 3 33 ( : ) 30,000 25,000 시장규모 성장률 20.1% 22,594 26,710 0.205 0.2 20,000 15,000 15,796 18,968 19.1% 0.195 0.19 0.185 10,000 18.2% 0.18 5,000 0.175 0 2008 년 2009 년 2010 년 2011 년 0.17 : PWC(2010) 11 2, (2010.4) 09 1,300 14 7,000 30%, 10% 10 9, SNS

3 107 PWC(2010) 10 22.8%, 11 24.8% NHN CPC(Cost for Click) 2) ( ), SNS (SNG), M&A 2009,,, NHN, CJ,,, ( ), ( ), ( ) 10, 2010 30, 09 12 (MOU) 10 6 ` ` SBS,

108 WAP, Native 09 73.1 ( 10~ 14) 12.3% 14 130.6 3 34 ( : ) 7,313 8,467 9,642 10,957 12,021 13,061 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 : PWC(2010) 68%, 1,, 3 35 1 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14.7 10.9 10.6 8.8 8.2 6.7 5.8 5.4 4.5 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.8 10.6 : (2010.3.26)

3 109 MMORPG, CJ,,, SNS SNG, SNS NHN,, SKT 10 7 SNS 2 5 57% 13), NHN 10 SNG, CJ SNG 100 WAP, Native 09 22.6 ( 10~ 14) 27.7% 14 76.5 13) Comscore, (2010.9.27)

110 3 36 ( : ) 7,651 6,011 2,256 2,807 3,681 4,675 2009 년 2010 년 2011 년 2012 년 2013 년 2014 년 : PWC(2010) 1:1 SMS, MMS, LBS,, 3D 09 11 50~60% AdMob 7 5 10 1 Quattro Wireless 2 7, 60% (iad) 10 7 1 NHN

3 111 NHN 10 9 NHN (NBP) 4 1. 3 45 ( :,, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 698,457 678,619 (-2.8) 682,932 (0.6) 686,503 (0.5) 35,899 30,849 (-14.1) 27,387 (-11.2) 26,942 (-1.6) 6,480 5,403 (-16.6) 6,099 (12.9) 7,262 (19.1) 29,419 25,446 (-13.5) 21,287 (-16.3) 19,680 (-7.6) 2008 2009 2010 2011 433,948 409,864 (-5.5) 357,592 (-12.8) 339,052 (-5.2) 33,349 28,673 (-14.3) 24,950 (-13.0) 24,175 (-3.1) 3,680 3,119 (-15.2) 3,495 (12.0) 4,178 (19.5) 29,759 25,554 (-14.1) 21,455 (-16.0) 19,997 (-6.8) : 1. 2010 9, 10 2. ( ) : KAIT, NIPA

112. 2010 2010 0.6% 68 2,932, ( ) (VoIP/ ), 2010 11.2% 273 87, 2010 12.8% 35 7,592 Gartner 2010 13 7,826 13.8% 10 09 ( ): 07 63%, 08 54%, 09 42%, 10 30% 2010 13% 249 5,

3 113 (%, ) : ( 08) 25.6 ( 09) 31.0 ( 10.1Q) 32.1 (2Q) 31.1 (3Q) 31.2 : (,,, ), LG (, ), ( ) (Feature Phone ) (%, ): ( 10.1) -25.5 (2) -23.9 (3) -20.5 (4) -20.3 (5) -17.9, S( ), (LG), ( ),. 2011 1) 2011 0.5% 68 6 2011,, VoIP/

114 2011 1.6% 269 42, 2011 5.2% 33 9 2011 9.8% 11% 15 16 10 Feature Phone, 2011 3.1% 241 7, 10, RIM,, HTC Feature Phone, (%, ) : ( 08) 4.1 ( 09) 4.2

3 115 ( 10.1Q) 5.4 (2Q) 6.4 (3Q) 11.0, (%) : ( 10.4) 50 (5) 134 (6) 369 (7) 376 (8) 378 (9) 560 (10) 243 2) (, ) 4G, IPTV,,,, LTE,, ( ), 4 Wi-Fi WiBro, LTE, WCDMA (, ), 2011 700 1,700,

116 3 37 : SK, 3 38 1 : LTE WiBro, Wi-Fi, LTE

3 117 3 46 KT SKT LG U + 2014 5.1 (WCDMA, Wi-Fi, WiBro & LTE) WiFi 2010 4, 2011 10 LTE WCDMA (CCC) 2011 LTE, 2012 6 2013 WiBro 5 ( ) 2012 7 LTE 2010 1,800,,,, 5 RIM, HTC, Apple 2010 3 9.5% PC PC,

118, (HP, Dell, Acer, Asus, Lenovo ), PC 2011 4,800, (2 8000 ) 18% 3 3000 S 2010 4, 2. 3 47 TV ( :,, %) 2008 2009 2010 2011 128,936 127,201 (-1.3) 140,789 (10.7) 150,091 (6.6) 9,122 8,158 (-10.6) 10,867 (33.2) 12,406 (14.2) 3,309 2,695 (-18.5) 3,154 (17.0) 3,244 (2.9) 5,813 5,463 (-6.0) 7,713 (41.2) 9,162 (18.8) 2008 2009 2010 2011 48,727 47,379 (-2.8) 51,761 (9.2) 54,019 (4.4) 5,843 5,227 (-10.5) 7,586 (45.1) 8,685 (14.5) 221 195 (-11.8) 211 (8.1) 219 (4.3) 5,622 5,032 (-10.5) 7,375 (46.6) 8,466 (14.8) : 1. 2010 9, 10 2. ( ) : KAIT, NIPA

3 119. 2010 2010 10.7% 14 789 TV, 2010 33.2% 108 6 TV TV, TV 2010 TV 9.2% 5 1,761 LCD TV, 3 39 LCD TV : IR

120 2010 TV 45.1% 75 8 TV, LCD TV, LED TV DisplaySearch 2010 TV 2.42 15% LCD TV 29% TV., LED LED TV, 2010 LCD TV 20% LED TV LCD TV 1.88, LED TV 360 3,700 (LCD TV 20% ) 3D 3D TV, TV 3D TV 3 35 36% TV (2 ), (5 ), TV TV, 3D TV, LED TV 50%, 3D TV, LED TV EU(63.6%), (105.8%) (, 84.2%), (56.3%), (73.7%) TV TV (, %) : ( 07)28.9 ( 08)33.8

3 121 ( 09)35.7 ( 10.1 )37.0 LCD TV (42, $):( 09.112) 1,007 ( 10.1) 1,004 (2) 957 (3) 919 (4) 1,046 (5) 960 (6) 993 LED 3D TV,. 2011 2011 6.6% 15 2011,, TV 2011 14.2% 124 2011, TV TV TV 1) 2011 TV 4.4% 5 4,019 LED TV, 3D TV, Internet/Smart/Connected TV LCD TV TV 3D LED,

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3 123 TV 2) LED TV, LED TV LED LED TV LED TV LCD TV 2010 20% 2011 50% TV LED TV TV 3 40 LCD TV LED CCFL TV ( : ) : Displaysearch, Displaybank, NH 3D TV, AMOLED TV

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4 ( ) 127 (2010) Smets & Wouters(2003, 2007) DSGE DSGE DSGE ( ) 17) (2010) GDP ( ) (,,, ) ( ) (2010) DSGE, ( ) 1%, 2.5%. 1.7% 2.5%. 4%.,, 3%, 2%, 0.3% 18), 4%, 1% 19) 16) (2010). 17) (2010). 18), 19)

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138 5 1. 2010, 1971 80 9.2% 1999 2007 5.8%, 1991 97 1.89% 1999 2007 2.82% 5 1 GDP ( :, %) 20 15 10 5 0-5 71 80 90 98 07 09-10 1971~80 1981~90 1991~97 1999~2007 7.5 9.2 9.8 7.5 5.8 4.71 5.40 3.03 1.89 2.82 : 1) 2) 1998 2008 :

5 139 1990 1986 1990 10.1% 2006 2009 3.0% 5 2 ( : %) :., OECD OECD 2008 100 46 ( : : 96.0, 91.0, 81.0, 80.0, 69.0)

140 2. ICT, 11 ICT ( ) 2010. 12 700, 10-15 41.7% 15 4,000, TV (, ) TV IPTV IPTV IPTV 16 200. 10 10 VOD 335 IPTV. TV TV TV TV IPTV

5 141. TV IPTV, TV IPTV ( ). ( :, ),.,., 1,,..

142 ( ICT ) ICT,,,, ( N-Screen ), U-City, E-learning, U-health,,,, ICT ICT ICT ICT. ICT

143 (2007), (BOKDSGE), 2007. 09, pp. 57-108 (2010.10), HCN" (2009), 3,, 21 11 464, (2010),,, 22 5 481, (2009),, 2009-10 (2010), (MPS), 10-09 (2010),?, KT,,, (2008), " IT " (2010), 2010 (2010.4), (2010), " ( )," mimeo. (2010), 2010,, 2010.6 (2009.12.30), (2010.4.21),

144 (2010.7), " ( )" (2010.11), (2010), 2010 (2010), 2011, 2010. 11 (2010.1.14), (2010.3.26), (2010.5.3), " - vs. " (2010.9.6),, 4 _emarketer" (2010. 7), (2010),,, 2010. 10 (2010),, NIPA 2010. 3 (2010.7.1), (ipad),, 22 12 488, (2005),,, 2005. 8. (2006), " DSGE," mimeo. (2010.10),,, 22 18 494, (2011), 2010 IT,, 2011.1

145 (2009. 9), / (2010.8), "2010 : " (2010.11), " / " (2010.10), " / " (2010. 9), IT R&D 2010 2015. (2010.11.8), 2010 (KAIT), (2010), 2011 -, 2010.11.18 IT (2010.10.25), 2010 TV (2010.12.28), "2010 " (2010), 2011,, 2010. 9 KT (2010a), TV, 2010.4 (2010b) - (2010c), M2M, 2010.8 KTB (2010), _, 2010.6.21 NH (2010), 2011 : /LCD", 2010. 11 Cisco (2010), Global Mobile Data Forecast for 2009-2014 Displaybank(2010a), 3D TV, 2010. 5 Displaybank(2010b), Worldwide TV Shipment & Forecast( 08-14), 2010. 5 emarketer(2010.9.27), The Mobile Apps That Affluents Download OVUM(2010.1a), Mobile Content and Applications in Emerging Market : Operator Strategies (2010.1b), Mobile Content and Applications in Emerging Market : the Future

146 (2010.4a), Mobile phone forecast by technology: 2009~2015 (2010.4b), Smartphone forecast: 2009~2015 (2010.5), Mobile voice and data forecast pack: 2010~2015 (2010.6), Mobile application download and revenue forecast: 2010~2015 PWC(2010), Global Entertainment and media market Outlook 2010~2014 Smets, F. and Wouters, R. (2003), An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area, Journal of the European Economic Association, 1:5(September), 1123-1175 and (2007), "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," European Central Bank Working Paper #722

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