29th Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) 국외출장결과보고서 우리원에서는한국전자통신정보연구원과 실시간인구현황파악및전망과경제 사회현상의분석 예측을위한분산 병렬다차원인구마이크로시뮬레이션기술개발 연구를 3개년도에걸쳐진행하고있음ㅇ연구기간 : 2014.9~2015.8(2차년도연구기간 ) ㅇ참여연구기관 : 한국전자통신연구원, 수리과학연구소, 한국보건복지정보개발원, 한국보건사회연구원, 클루닉스, 울산과학기술대학교등ㅇ보사연수행과제 : 인구변화 / 변동연관데이터세트분석및모델연구 본 2014/2015년도연구에서는시뮬레이션모형개발을위한인구학적근간 (basis) 으로서인구동태요소의전이확률세트를구축하고자함ㅇ조건부인구동태요소발생확률 (conditional probability rate) 과각요소내상태 (state) 간전이확률 (transition probability rate) 을추정하고있음. - 인구학적및사회경제적조건으로성, 연령, 지역, 교육수준, 경제활동상태등포함 - 인구동태요소로결혼, 출산, 사망, 이동등포함ㅇ유럽인구경제학회 (ESPE) 에서개최하는연례국제회의에서는인구동태적인요소자체뿐만아니라인구동태적요소들과이들의사회경제적연관성에관한연구결과를발표하고토론 - 동회의에서다루는중정분야로는성 (gender), 교육 (education, returning to schooling), 결혼 (marriage), 노동시장 (labor market) 및실업, 보건 ( 아동보건포함 ) 및사망력 ( 원인과결과 ), 빈곤, 세대간이동, 재정적인센티브와출산율, 육아휴직및보육, 이민 ( 종족, 문화, 정체성등포함 ), 미혼모, 고령화등을포함함ㅇ이와관련, 보사연수탁과제를효율적으로추진하기위하여국제회의에참석하여인구동태적요소들과사회경제적환경간의연관성을결합하는이론과기법에대한지식과적용방법등을습득하고자함. 기간 : 2015. 6. 16. ~ 2015. 6. 21 장소 : 터키이즈미르 - 1 -
출장자 : 이삼식선임연구위원 ( 인구학전공 ), 최효진전문연구원 ( 가족학전공 ) June 17, 2015 17:00 to 19:00 Registration, Main building, foyer 18:00 to 20:00 Welcome reception, Outside the main building June 18, 2015 09:00 to 09:30 Welcome, Conference Hall (Main building) 09:30 to 10:30 Keynote 1: Bruce Sacerdote: Why Do College Going Interventions Work?, Conference Hall (Main building) 10:30 to 11:00 Coffee break, Main building, foyer - 2 -
11:00 to 13:00 Parallel sessions A, Building C, 3rd floor 13:00 to 14:00 Lunch 14:00 to 16:00 Parallel sessions B, Building C, 3rd floor 16:00 to 16:30 Coffee break, Main building, foyer 16:30 to 18:00 Parallel sessions C, Building C, 3rd floor June 19, 2015 09:15 to 10:45 Parallel sessions D, Building C, 3rd floor 10:45 to 11:15 Coffee break, Main building, foyer 11:15 to 12:45 Parallel sessions E, Building C, 3rd floor 12:45 to 13:45 Lunch 13:45 to 14:45 Keynote 2: Shelly Lundberg: Orchids and Dandelions: Family Background and the Gender Gap in Education, Conference Hall (Main building) 14:45 to 15:15 Coffee break, Main building, foyer 15:15 to 16:45 Parallel sessions F, Building C, 3rd floor 17:00 to 18:00 Presidential Lecture: Erik Plug: The Researcher's Guide to the IVF Registry, Conference Hall (Main building) June 20, 2015 09:15 to 10:45 Parallel sessions G, Building C, 3rd floor 10:45 to 11:15 Coffee break, Main building, foyer 11:15 to 12:45 Parallel session H, Building C, 3rd floor - 3 -
인구시뮬레이터작업에유용한주요주제 ( 연구진참관 ) 인구동태요소와사회경제적환경간의연관성ㅇ Common Law Marriage and Teen Births - 출생통계등의자료를활용하여 Common Law Marriage (CLM) 가 10대출산에미치는영향에대하여분석 - CLM법이폐지된지역에서는 10대출산가능성이증가하였는데특히흑인 10대에게서그가능성이크게나타남. 또한 CLM법폐지는미혼모의자녀출산도약간증가시키는것으로나타남. ㅇ Speed Premium in Childbearing : The Importance of Financial Incentive on Child Spacing - 핀란드에서스피드프리미엄이자녀출산에미치는영향분석 - 스피드프리미엄제도는첫자녀출산후 3년이내둘째자녀를가질확률을 3.8% 증가시키는것으로나타남. 그러나스피드프리미엄제도는자녀수에는영향을미치지않는것으로나타남. ㅇ The effect of the Business Cycle at College Graduation on Fertility - 독일의 National Educational Panel Survey 자료로 duration analysis를적용하여경기불황기졸업이첫번째부모로의진입에미치는영향분석 - 졸업기의경기불황은여성의출산율에는영향을미치나, 남성의출산율에는영향을미치지않는것으로나타남. - 경기불황시기에졸업을한여성중첫번째임신으로의전이가유의미하게높게나타남. 특히졸업후 2~4년에이러한효과가가장크게나타나고, 이후에는시간이갈수록감소함. - 회귀분석결과경기불황기에졸업한여성의평균자녀수가더많은것으로나타남. 제도의변화가결혼생활및출산 양육행태에미치는영향ㅇ Paid Parental leave and child living arrangements - 유급부모휴가제의 2007년개혁이아동에미치는영향분석 - 4 -
- 유급부모휴가제로인하여남성에게인센티브를제공함으로써태어난아동에대한부모의참여가증가한것으로나타남. ㅇ The Impact of Paternity Leave on Housework Division between Spouses - 부성휴가 (11일) 가가사및자녀양육에서의성차이에미친영향분석 - 부성휴가를사용한남성이더헌신적이고가사일등에참여하는경향이강하게나타남. ㅇ The Effects of Free Childcare on Labor Supply and Children - 무상보육이아동과여성의노동시장참여에미치는영향분석 - 3세아에대한무상보육은보육아동과여성노동을증가시키는것으로나타남. ㅇ Public Child Care and Mother s Flexible Work Arrangements - 공공보육의확대가여성의노동시장참여에미치는영향분석ㅇ Child care, mother s labor supply and residential location : how does mother s labor supply respond to the local availability of child care services? - 보육서비스의접근성과여성의노동시장참여간관계분석 ( 분석시 non-random sorting, 역인과성고려하여분석 ) - 지역자료를결합하여분석하였으며, 분석결과지역의보육서비스이용가능성은여성의노동시장참여에유의미한영향을미치지않는것으로나타남. ㅇ Children s Time Use in two-parent and single-parent families in Italy - 한부모가정과부모모두있는가정에서부모의자녀에대한투자시간이자녀의학업성적에미치는영향분석 - 한부모가정이상대적으로자녀에대한투입시간이적게나타났으며, 아동의학교태도도좋지않게나타남. - 전체적으로한부모가정과부모모두있는가정을비교할것이아니라편모가정의모 ( 母 ) 와부모모두있는가정의모 ( 母 ) 의시간을비교하여야하며, 여성의경제활동도고려하여분석필요ㅇ그외에도아래논문발표및토론에참석 - 5 -
- Retirement, Grandparental Childcare, and Maternal Employment - International Migration of Couples - Heterogeneous Couples, Household Interactions and Labor Supply Elasticities of Married Women - Fertility, Health and Education of UK Immigration : the Role of English Language Skills - Marriage Market Consequences of an Educational Reform - Who Cares? The Employment Effects of Informal Care 등 한국의경우이미통계청에서거시적으로인구추계를실시하고있는바, 상시적으로그리고사회경제현상과인구변동을연계하기위해서는보다많은특성의전이를고려한인구시뮬레이터구축이긴요함ㅇ이와관련, 본연구에서는여러상태간조건부전이확률산정및 ABM에의적용을고려할것임 이와관련, 출장결과는본연구사업에서의인구동태적전이확률을추정하는데있어서반드시고려하여야할사회경제적환경요소를설정하는데이론적근거로활용ㅇ예를들어, 출산확률추정시여성의지역, 경제활동상태등을조건부로채택, 인구이동에있어서직업요인등을조건부로채택, 사망확률추정에있어서혼인상태등을조건부로채택등 인구동태요서내상태 (state) 간전이확률추정시고려하여야할상태들과기본적인인구학적요소들을설정하는데참고ㅇ기혼과미혼의출산율, 혼인상태간전이에있어서유배우, 사별, 이혼등설정 출장중논의되었던일부주제에대해서는추후심층적연구의수행이필요한바, 본사업의차기년도연구분야또는보사연자체의연구과제설정시반영등 - 6 -