The e-business Studies Volume 17, Number 4, August, 30, 2016:319~332 Received: 2016/07/28, Accepted: 2016/08/28 Revised: 2016/08/27, Published: 2016/08/30 [ABSTRACT] This paper examined what determina nts effect trade volume between Kore a and Europe through an empirical a nalysis by using the panel data of 23 European Community member count ries and Korea from World Bank, IH S, KITA, KOTRA, EIBK for the period of 2006~2015, 5 years before and aft er the effectuation of Korea-EU FTA in July 2011. Empirical results showed that KORE A GDP and Korea s FDI to EU had a positive impact on Korea s export to Europe. However, other factors lik e EU GDP, Exchange rate, Transport ation cost, FTA did not have a signific ant impact on Korea s export to Euro pe. On the other hand, this study sho wed that Korea s import from Europe had a significant impact by EU GDP, Korea GDP, the effectuation of the K orea-eu FTA. Since the Korea-EU FTA went into ef fect, Korea s export to EU have decre ased by 13.7%, while Korea s import s from the EU have increased by 20. 6% from 2011 to 2015. The overall trade effects over the past 5 years, especially on Korea s export to EU, did not meet the original expectation of the Korea-EU FTA. But to evaluate only the first few years effects of the Korea-EU FTA may be too early to conclude the long term effects of the Korea-EU FTA because other econo nomic factors such as EU financial cri sis, the depreciation of EURO, Korea and EU s economic structures should be considered. [CONTENTS] ABSTRACT Ⅰ. Introduction Ⅱ. Literature review Ⅲ. Preceding research and Research model Ⅳ. Empirical Analysis Ⅴ. Conclusion Reference 국문초록 [Key Words] Korea, Europe, Trade, FTA A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a Smart Trade Jongtae Chung* / Chang Hwan Choi** ** Ph.D Candidate, Dept. of Trade, Dankook University Graduate School (First Author, chung@kotra.or.kr) ** Professor, Dept. of Trade, Dankook University (Corresponding Author, hub21@dankook.ac.kr) Ⅰ. Introduction ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 319
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade Ⅱ. Literature review 1. The Characteristics of EU Market 2. The structure of Trade between Korea and EU <Table 1> Recent Import trend of EU ( 단위 : 백만유로, %) Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 320 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
<Table 2> The Trend of Trade between Korea and EU ( 단위 : 백만달러, %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % <Table 3> The Trend of Korean Import from EU after Korea-EU FTA ( 단위 : 백만달러, %) Tariff 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount % Ⅲ. Preceding research and Research model 1. Preceding Research ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 321
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade <Table 4> Korea s top 10 Exporting Items to EU ( 단위 : 백만달러, %) 2013 2014 2015 Amount Weight (%) Amount Weight (%) Amount Weight (%) <Table 5> Korea s top 10 Importing Items from EU ( 단위 : 백만달러, %) 2013 2014 2015 Amount Weight (%) Amount Weight (%) Amount Weight (%) 322 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 323
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade 2. Research model log log log log log : log : log : log : : : : 324 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
log log log log log : log : log : log : : : : 3. Data Ⅳ. Empirical Analysis 1. Testing unit root and Panel Cointegration ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 325
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade <Table 6-1> Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic (Korea s Export to EU) Variable Levin, Lin and Chu t-test* Im, pesaran and Shin W-stat** Level 1st difference Level 1st difference <Table 6-2> Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic (Korea s Import from EU) Variable Levin, Lin and Chu t-test* Im, pesaran and Shin W-stat** Level 1st difference Level 1st difference 326 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
2. The Hypotheses Testing Result of Research Model <Table 7-1> Panel Cointegration (Korea s Export to EU) Factors Test-statistics P-value <Table 7-2> Panel Cointegration (Korea s Import from EU) Factors Test-statistics P-value ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 327
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade Ⅴ. Conclusion & Implications 328 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
<Table 8-1> Test result of Korea s Export to EU All of EU The West of EU The East of EU Pooled Fixed Random Pooled Fixed Random Pooled Fixed Random <Table 8-2> Test result of Korea s Import from EU All of EU The West of EU The East of EU Pooled Fixed Random Pooled Fixed Random Pooled Fixed Random ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 329
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade References 330 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319
ISSN 1229-9936 (Print), ISSN 2466-1716 (Online) Jongtae Chung / Chang Hwan Choi 331
A Study on the Determinants of trade between Korea and Europe in a smart trade 국문초록 스마트무역시대의한국과유럽간교역에영향을주는요인에관한연구 2) 332 The e-business Studies. 2016 ; 17(4) : 319~332, http://dx.doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2016.08.17.4.319