Issue Br ief ing Vol E01 ( ) 해외경제연구소산업투자조사실 하반기경제및산업전망 I II IT : (

Issue Br ief ing Vol. 2013-E01 (2013.07.22) 해외경제연구소산업투자조사실 하반기경제및산업전망 I. 1 1. 1 2. 2 3. 6 4. 7 II. 8 1. 8 2. 10 3. IT 15 4. 17 5. 20 6. 21 : (3779-6685) (3779-6679) (3779-5327) (3779-6677) (3779-6680) (3779-6656) : (3779-6670)

I. < > [],,, 3 (three-speed recovery) : 1.7~8% : 7.8% :,, 2% :,, [], (10) : 2.6% :, WTI 93 [] 3% ( : ) 2011 2012 2013 1/4 2/4 5,552 5,479 1,354 1,413 2,913 5,680 2,905 5,685 (19.0%) (-1.3%) (0.4%) (0.8%) (6.8%) (3.7%) (6.5%) (3.8%) 5,244 (23.3%) 5,196 (-0.9%) 1,299 (-2.9%) 1,275 (-2.3%) 2,739 (7.2%) 5,310 (2.2%) 2,751 (7.7%) 5,360 (3.2%)

II. [] 2013 52% 11.6CGT LNG 17% 350 LNG, drill-ship 2011 2010 2011 2012 () () () 11.3 (359.9%) 313.2 (323.9%) 491.1 (8.8%) 13.7 (21.0%) 508.3 (62.3%) 565.9 (15.2%) 7.6 ( 44.1%) 298.7 ( 41.2%) 397.5 ( 29.8%) : CGT,, % 2013 1~6 6.0 11.6 (61.5%) (52.4%) 184.9 350 (24.6%) (17.2%) 190.4 390 ( 25.3%) ( 1.9%) [ ] 4% 620 :,, 190 Oil & Gas :, 20% 122 :, 50% 40 :, % 2010 2011 2012 2013 1~6 p 644.8 (39.3) 649.6 (0.7) 647.6 ( 0.3) 280.9 ( 1.9) 620 ( 4.2) 142.9 (4.1) 158.8 (11.1) 253.3 (59.6) 161.4 (13.1) 290.0 (14.4) :,

[IT] IT 7.0% 1,661 :, ( 14.2%, IHS) : : TV 2010 2011 2012 1,539.4 (27.3) 1,566.2 (1.7) 1,552.4 ( 0.9) 1~6 p 812.4 (10.9) :, % 2013 1,661.0 (7.0) [], :, 35 2013 30GW 40GW : 15% 39.5GW [] 9 3 9% 336.4 [] 6.8% 490 2011 GDP 6, (, )

I. 1. [], : (Sequester) (%) : 8.2( 12. 2/4) 8.0(3/4) 7.8(4/4) 7.7( 13. 1/4) 7.6(2.4) - (, %) : -0.4( 12. 1/4) 2.2(2/4) 1.7(3/4) 1.9(4/4) 3.4( 13. 1/4) :,, 1 PMI( 50) : 49.8( 12.9 ) 50.6(12 ) 50.9( 13.3 ) 50.1(6 ) (, %) : 13.9( 12. 2/4) 13.5(3/4) 14.9(4/4) 12.6( 13. 1/4) 12.9(5 ) : ( ) : 2%, 3.1, 3 ( 50) : 40.4( 12.9 ) 39.1(12 ) 45.0( 13.3 ) 45.6(5 ) : ECB,, (%) : 11.3( 12. 2/4) 11.5(3/4) 11.8(4/4) 12.1( 13. 1/4) 12.2(5 )

[] 3%,,, 3 (three-speed recovery) :,, 1.7~8% :, 7.8% : 7.5%, 3.5%, 1.2, (M2 ) 13% :, 2% :,,, - 0.3%,,, 세계경제성장전망 : % 2012 2013 2014 1/4 4 3.1-3.1-0.2 3.8 1.2-1.2-0.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.7-0.2 2.7-0.6-1.1-0.6-0.2 0.9 1.9 0.4 2.0 0.5 1.2 4.9-5.0-0.3 5.4 7.8 7.7 7.8-0.3 7.7 3.2 4.8 5.6-0.2 6.3 3.4 1.6 2.5-0.9 3.3 0.9 1.9 2.5-0.5 3.2 : IMF, (7 )

2., 1 1,055 / 3, 6 1,161 / - 4 1,080 / 5 /100 5 1,078 /100 6 1,167 /100,, /, 주요국제투자은행의국제환율전망평균 1/4 2/4 3/4() 4/4() / 1,111 1,142 1,134 1,133 / 1.282 1.301 1.28 1.27 / 94.2 99.1 102 105 :, : Bloomberg,

2, (Sequester) (10) 1.63% 5 (10) 2.74% (3) 2.44%, 2.86% (10), 2.6% (3), 주요국제투자은행의국제금리전망평균 1/4 2/4 3/4() 4/4() (10) 1.86% 2.49% 2.50% 2.62% (10) 0.57% 0.85% 0.87% 0.91% (3) 2.52% 2.88% 2.84% 2.88% :, : Bloomberg,

[] : 2013 4, 90 7 100 4 22, 90 (WTI 4.17 $86.68/) 6, (6.18 $98.44/ ) (6.21 $93.69/),, 6 (7.10 $106.52/) [] :, WTI 93 CERA, EIA, 2013,, 기관 ( 전망시기 ) CERA ('13.6.5.) EIA ('13.6.11.) PIRA ('13.6.25.) OPEC 주요기관의국제유가전망 : $/ 기준 2012년 2013년 유종 평균 1/4 2/4 3/4( 전망 ) 4/4( 전망 ) 연평균 ( 전망 ) Dubai 109.04 108.09 100.76 96.25 92.43 99.11 Brent 111.74 112.63 103.33 102.0 98.00 103.8 WTI 94.15 94.36 94.17 94.30 91.80 93.64 WTI 94.15 94.36 94.17 92.33 93.17 93.25 Brent 111.74 112.63 103.33 105.4 108.4 107.2 WTI 94.15 94.36 94.17 99.35 102.5 97.50 1) Koreapds 2) CERA: 美 (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) EIA: 美 (Energy Information Administration) PIRA: (Petroleum Industry Research Associates)

3. [],, : - - : - -,, S&P 1/3 : 9 - -

4. [] '12 4/4 0.6% : (%) : 10.0(ASEAN), 9.8(), 2.1(), -3.8(EU), -11.5() : IT, (%) : 30.0(), 8.6, 7.7(), 1.3(LCD), -1.7, -1.7(), -2.1(), -11.9(), -25.3() [] 3% OECD, 3, IT,, 수출입추이및전망 ( : ) 2011 2012 2013 1/4 2/4 5,552 5,479 1,354 1,413 2,913 5,680 2,905 5,685 (19.0%) (-1.3%) (0.4%) (0.8%) (6.8%) (3.7%) (6.5%) (3.8%) 5,244 5,196 1,299 1,275 2,739 5,310 2,751 5,360 (23.3%) (-0.9%) (-2.9%) (-2.3%) (7.2%) (2.2%) (7.7%) (3.2%) : ( )

II. 1. 39.5% 1,666 CGT, 2 Clarkson 7 126 6 1point - 1~2point 2010, LNG drill-ship drill-ship 24.6% 184.9 6.4% 2,832 CGT 25.3% 190.4 2

2) 2013 52% 11.6CGT LNG 17% 350 LNG, drill-ship 2011 1.9% 조선산업추이및전망 2010 2011 2012 () 11.3 (359.9%) 13.7 (21.0%) 7.6 ( 44.1%) 313.2 508.3 298.7 () (323.9%) (62.3%) ( 41.2%) 491.1 565.9 397.5 () (8.8%) (15.2%) ( 29.8%) : ( ) : Clarkson,, : CGT,, % 2013 1~6 6.0 11.6 (61.5%) (52.4%) 184.9 350 (24.6%) (17.2%) 190.4 390 ( 25.3%) ( 1.9%) 3) drill-ship, 2008 drill-ship FPSO

2. 1) [] 1.9% 280.9 60% 19.8% 34%, 31.6% (21.9% ) Oil&Gas (6.6% ) (67.7% ), (24.4% ) ( ) 13.1% 161.4-254% 115-36% [] 4% 620 Oil & Gas 4.2% 620 플랜트및해외건설수주추이및전망 :, % 2010 2011 2012 2013 1~6 p 644.8 (39.3) 649.6 (0.7) 647.6 ( 0.3) 280.9 ( 1.9) 620 ( 4.2) 142.9 (4.1) 158.8 (11.1) 253.3 (59.6) 161.4 (13.1) 290.0 (14.4) :, :, 2013

2) [] 49.5 24.4% - CIS(), (, ) -, (109), (31), (5.9) [] 2013 190,, -,,, - 5GW [ ], - 발전및담수수주추이및전망 2010 2011 2012 359.1 (368.4) 188.8 ( 47.4) 193.7 (2.6) : :, 2013 :, % 2013 1~6 49.5 190.0 ( 24.4) ( 1.9)

3) Oil&Gas [] 2013 Oil&Gas, 10 4 6.6% 74 90 Oil&Gas - (39.6 ) 39.8, 57.1% 53.5% - NSRP (21 ) 30.6% - 지역별수주실적 :, % 2012 2013 0 0.0 6,458 0.1-157,522 2.3 2,262,502 30.6 1336.3 222,863 3.2 121,863 1.6 45.3 467,639 6.7 1,037,001 14.0 121.8 2,133,131 30.7 0 0.0 100.0 3,961,547 57.1 3,975,049 53.7 0.3 6,942,702 100.0 7,402,873 100.0 6.6 : [] 2013 Oil&Gas 20% 122, - (110 ) (140 )

- 5 680,,,, LNG Oil&Gas 수주추이및전망 :, % 2010 2011 2012 2013 1~6 119.6 ( 55.0) 93.6 ( 21.7) 102.0 (8.9) 74.0 (6.6) 122.1 (19.8) : :, 2013 [ ],,, 4) [] 2013 67.7% 12.7 - SOCAR (6.4 ), PTT (2.6 ) 73%

지역별수주실적 :, % 2012 2013 136,757 3.5 926,585 72.9 577.5 328,393 8.4 0 0 100.0 0 0 98 0.0 3,465,587 88.2 344,087 27.1 90.1 3,930,737 100.0 1,270,770 100.0 67.7 : [] 2013 50% 40, -, () [ ], 석유화학수주추이및전망 2010 2011 2012 60.7 (131.9) 87.4 (44.1) 81.6 ( 6.6) : :, 2013 :, % 2013 1~6 12.7 ( 67.7) 40.0 ( 51.0)

3. IT [] 2013 6 IT 812.4 10.9%,, 3 - IT IT IT * 13 IT (Gartner, %) : ( 13.3 ) 4.1 ( 13.6 ) 2.0,, PC 8.6% 264.5-15.1% 114.9 - Drive IC, 4.4% 115.9 11 2 8 1 31.6% 116.4-5 1, LG 3 38% (1 ), TV PC, 0.4% 149.6-4

[] 2013 IT 7.0% 1,661 IT 2%,,, ( 14.2%, IHS) TV [ ] IT,,, IT IT,,, IT 수출추이및전망 2010 2011 2012 :, % 2013 1~6 p 1,539.4 (27.3) 1,566.2 (1.7) 1,552.4 ( 0.9) : :, 2013 812.4 (10.9) 1,661.0 (7.0)

4. 1) [] 2012 2013, - 1 7GW -,, [] 2013 30GW 40GW -,,, 2014 -, 20% 50GW - 2012 30~50% 80~100% -

35-15 20 [ ] 태양광시장현황및전망 : New Energy Finance 2) [] 2012 (PTC: Production Tax Credit) - 2012 14GW 2013 2.8GW

[], 15% 39.5GW, 2014 2012 46GW - 2014 8GW, [ ], Track Record - 풍력시장현황및전망 : New Energy Finance

5. [] 5 2.1% 658,,, (8% ) 609.25 10.6% 5 5.2% 2,760 11.9% 163.7 [] 9 3 2% 15.4 9% 336.4 2010 2011 2012 288.7 (25.4) 철강제품수출추이및전망 384.8 (33.3) 369.7 ( 3.9) : :, 2013 2013 1~6 163.7 ( 11.9) :, % 336.4 ( 9.0)

6. [] 244.5 7.7% EU - (1.1-6.20, %) : (EU) 26.8 () 12.8 () 4.0 (ASEAN) 2.5 2.3 () 2.5 () 14.9 [] 2013 6.8% 490 2011 GDP 6, (, ) -, 4 [ ],, 석유화학제품수출추이및전망 2010 2011 2012 357.0 (30.0) 455.9 (27.7) 458.8 (0.6) : :, 2013 :, % 2013 1~6 p 244.5 490.0 (7.7) (6.8)