2013. 12. 19 비둘기파적인테이퍼링 출구는여전히멀다! 투자전략 Economist/Strategist 전지원 02) 3787-5231 jiwon@kiwoom.com Fed는 18일 ( 현지시간 ) 이틀간의공개시장위원회 (FOMC) 이후성명서를통해현재매달 850억달러씩투입하고있는자산매입규모를 100억달러줄여 750억달러로낮춘다고밝혔습니다. 국채매입규모를 50억달러줄여 400억달러로낮추고, 모기지담보증권 (MBS) 매입도 50억달러줄어든 350억달러로조정했습니다. 성장률전망상향조정 vs 인플레이션전망하향조정버냉키의장은최근경제지표들이노동시장회복세가지속될수있을것이라는자신감을높여줬다고테이퍼링의배경을설명. 올해 GDP 성장률전망치는종전 9월의 2.0~2.3% 에서 2.2~2.3% 로상향조정하고, 2014년전망치는 2.9~3.1% 에서 2.8~3.2% 로범위만조정. 실업률전망치도올해 7.1~7.3% 에서 7.0~7.1% 로전망치를하향했으며, 내년전망치도 6.4~6.8% 에서 6.3~6.6% 로낮췄음. 다만향후추가축소는신중하게결정하고, 상황에따라서는다시규모를확대할수있다고밝혔음. 또한테이퍼링은출구전략과무관하다며금융완화기조를지속할것임을재확인. 인플레이션이너무낮은수준에서계속머물러있지않도록행동할것이며, 필요하다면가능한모든대책들을동원할수있다고밝힘. 인플레이션전망의하향조정은이러한발언을뒷받침. 9월에 1.2~1.3% 로제시했던 PCE는 1.1~1.2% 로하향조정했고, 내년전망치도 1.5~1.7% 에서 1.4~1.6% 로하향조정. 기준금리인상시점전망은오히려늦춰져연준이공개한 FOMC 정책위원들의개별금리전망에따르면, 2016년에인상을전망한위원은종전 2명에서 1명더늘었음. 반면내년인상을점친위원은종전 3명에서 2명으로줄었음. 또한위원들이제시한 2016년말적정기준금리평균은 1.75% 로, 종전의 2.0% 보다 0.25%pt 낮아졌음. 한편버냉키의장은기자회견에서연준이대규모로자산을보유하고있고, 테이퍼링에도불구하고향후자산보유규모가계속증가할것인만큼시장금리는지속적으로하락압력을받을것으로전망. 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나, 당사는그정확성이나안전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용할수없습니다. 글로벌금융시장, 불확실성해소및경기회복기대감반영 Fed의테이퍼링결정이후글로벌금융시장은불확실성해소및글로벌경기회복기대감을반영. 새벽 4시를기점으로 S&P 500 및다우지수, 나스닥지수는상승탄력이강화. 미국채 2년물금리는오히려하락한반면 10 년물금리는상승하면서, 채권시장역시경기회복기대감 ( 장단기금리차확대 ) 을나타냄. 국내증시에서외국인매매동향과밀접한 ishare MSCI KOREA는테이퍼링발표이후상승전환.
비둘기파적인 테이퍼링실시 Fed는 18일 ( 현지시간 ) 이틀간의공개시장위원회 (FOMC) 이후성명서를통해현재매달 850억달러씩투입하고있는자산매입규모를 100억달러줄여 750억달러로낮춘다고밝혔다. 국채매입규모를 50억달러줄여 400억달러로낮추고, 모기지담보증권 (MBS) 매입도 50억달러줄어든 350억달러로조정했다. 성장률전망상향조정 버냉키의장은최근경제지표들이노동시장회복세가지속될수있을것이라는자신 감을높여줬다고테이퍼링의배경을설명했다. 더불어테이퍼링이끝나기전에당초 금리인상의목표치인실업률 6.5% 를달성할것이라고전망했다. 올해 GDP 성장률전망치는종전 9월의 2.0~2.3% 에서 2.2~2.3% 로상향조정하고, 2014년전망치는 2.9~3.1% 에서 2.8~3.2% 로범위만조정했다. 실업률전망치도올해 7.1~7.3% 에서 7.0~7.1% 로전망치를하향했으며, 내년전망치도 6.4~6.8% 에서 6.3~6.6% 로낮췄다. 인플레이션전망은 하향조정 다만향후추가축소는신중하게결정하고, 상황에따라서는다시규모를확대할수있다고밝혔다. 또한테이퍼링은출구전략과무관하다며금융완화기조를지속할것임을재확인했다. 인플레이션은점진적으로목표치인 2% 에근접해갈것이라고예상하면서도, 인플레이션이너무낮은수준에서계속머물러있지않도록행동할것이며, 필요하다면가능한모든대책들을동원할수있다고밝혔다. 인플레이션전망의하향조정은이러한발언을뒷받침했다. 9 월에 1.2~1.3% 로제시했 던 PCE 는 1.1~1.2% 로하향조정했고, 내년전망치도 1.5~1.7% 에서 1.4~1.6% 로하 향조정했다. 금리인상전망은 더늦춰져 테이퍼링의실시에도불구하고기준금리인상시점전망은오히려더늦춰졌다. 연준이공개한 FOMC 정책위원들의개별금리전망에따르면, 지난 10월과같은 12명의위원들이 2015년에첫금리인상이있을것으로전망했으며 3명은 2016년에인상을예상했다. 2016년에인상을전망한위원은종전 2명에서 1명더늘었다. 반면내년인상을점친위원은종전 3명에서 2명으로줄었다. 또한위원들이제시한 2016년말적정기준금리평균은 1.75% 로, 종전의 2.0% 보다 0.25%pt 낮아졌다. 한편버냉키의장은기자회견에서연준이대규모로자산을보유하고있고, 테이퍼링 에도불구하고향후자산보유규모가계속증가할것인만큼시장금리는지속적으로 하락압력을받을것으로전망했다. 2
금융시장반응 Fed의테이퍼링결정이후글로벌금융시장반응을살펴보면, 불확실성해소및글로벌경기회복기대감이높았다. 새벽 4시를기점으로 S&P 500 및다우지수, 나스닥지수는상승탄력이강화되었다. 미국채 2년물금리는오히려하락한반면 10년물금리는상승하면서, 채권시장역시경기회복기대감 ( 장단기금리차확대 ) 을나타냈다. 유럽및남미시장과외환시장및상품시장동향을살펴보면, 미국중심의글로벌경기개선기대가강하게나타났다. 유럽증시및남미증시의상승폭은미국증시의상승폭을하회했으며, 달러지수는강세를나타냈고상품시장의상승탄력은상대적으로미미했다. 국내증시에서외국인매매동향과밀접한 ishare MSCI KOREA는테이퍼링발표이후상승전환했다. S&P 500 장중추이 미국채 2 년물금리장중추이 미국채 10 년물금리장중추이 WTI 선물가격장중추이 달러지수장중추이 Ishares KOREA ETF 장중추이 3
향후외환시장향방은? 연준의테이퍼링에도불구하고달러화강세가장기간이어질가능성은낮아보인다. 그이유는경기개선에따른유동성보강이나타날것이며, 미국의경기개선이안전통화선호현상을약화시킬수있기때문이다. 즉, 위험거래의증가영향으로달러화강세가나타나는기간은단기로제한될것으로예상된다. 엔화의경우 104엔을돌파했다. 105엔까지상승이열려있지만, 추세적인상승은제한적일것이다. 테이퍼링이한단계엔화의상승을가져오는데그칠것이라는얘기다. 4 월소비세인상에따른연초정부및일본은행의금융완화및경기부양책이기대되고있다. 이에따른엔화약세를선방영하고있는정도로판단된다. 미국 10 년만기국채 금리, 3.0% 넘을까? 테이퍼링에대한불확실성이완화됐지만, 오히려기준금리인상등의출구전략은지 연될가능성이높아졌다. 기존에예상됐던기준금리인상시점이 2015 년에서 2016 년 으로늦춰지는모습이다. 미국 10년만기국채금리는일시적으로 3.0% 를넘어설수있지만, 추가적인상승보다는횡보구간을거칠것으로예상된다. 경제성장률상향조정과인플레이션하향조정등을감안할때국채수익률의급등현상은나타나지않을것이다. 이미국채수익률수준은연준의테이퍼링실시를어느정도반영했다는판단이다. 신흥국에서선진국으로 의자금이동가능성은? 테이퍼링실시는결국위험거래의증가를가져올것이라는점에서지난 6~7월에나타났던신흥국에서선진국으로의급격한자금이동은일어나지않을것이다. 오히려, 완만하게나마신흥국으로의자금유입이기대된다. 6~7월에는글로벌경기회복에대한신뢰감이낮았기때문에, 이머징금융시장의변동성이확대되었다. 당시의미국장단기금리차의하락은이를나타내고있다. 하지만전일나타난장단기금리차의확대는글로벌경기회복기대감이강화되고있음을시사한다. 금가격의하락은인플레이션하향조정과더불어안전자산선호심리의약화를반영했다는판단이다. 4
FOMC 보도문원문 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgagebacked securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. 5
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longerrun goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. 6