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1 글로벌환율전쟁과미국의통화정책 김진일 ( 고려대학교경제학과 ) 2018 년 7 월 12 일 한국산업기술진흥협회 (KOITA) 기술경영인하계포럼

2 오늘강연의내용 대외경제여건 ( 환율 ) 미국의통화정책 (Fed) 과 FOMC 한국의통화정책 ( 한국은행 ) 과금융통화위원회 금리와환율

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4 My Background : Yale University (PhD student) : Federal Reserve Board (R&S, Economist) : University of Virginia : Federal Reserve Board (MA, Sr. Economist) : Federal Reserve Board (IF, Paid Consultant) 2017-present: Federal Reserve Board (FS, Unpaid Consultant) 2010-present: Korea University

5 1. 세계경제상황 1 주요국경제 u 세계경제는성장세가확대되는모습 미국과유로지역이내수를중심으로높은성장세를이어가고일본도투자및수출 증가에힘입어개선흐름을지속 신흥국의경우중국및아세안이양호한성장세를보이는가운데브라질, 러시아등 자원수출국도회복세를지속

6 1. 세계경제상황 2 세계교역 u 세계교역은견조한증가세를지속 ~10 월중세계교역량증가율 ( 상품기준, 전년동기대비 ) 은 4.5% 로 2016 년수 준 (1.5%) 을큰폭상회 중국, 아세안, 러시아등신흥국을중심으로수출이호조지속

7 1. 세계경제상황 3 국제유가및금융시장 u 국제유가는중동지역의정정불안, 미국원유재고감소등으로배럴당 60달러대로상승 u 미국장기금리는지난해하반기이후주요경제지표호조에힘입어상승하였으나달러화는금리인상가속화에대한기대가낮아지면서하락 u 선진국과신흥국주가는글로벌경기개선으로상승세를지속 국제유가 미국금리및달러화지수 글로벌주가및 VIX 지수 자료 : Bloomberg 자료 : Bloomberg 자료 : Bloomberg

8 2. 세계경제전망 1 개황 u 세계경제는개선흐름을지속할전망 선진국이견조한성장세를이어가는가운데인도, 브라질등을중심으로신흥국의성장 모멘텀이확대될것으로예상 글로벌 PMI 와 OECD 경기선행지수도꾸준히상승 세계경제성장률전망 (%) 글로벌 PMI 및 OECD 선행지수 1) 시점 2017 e) 2018 e) 2019 e) IMF 18.1월 ( 선진국 ) ( 신흥국 ) OECD 17.11월 World Bank 18.1월 Global Insight 17.12월 개 IB 평균 월 자료 : 각기관 주 : 1) OECD 국가및 BRICS 등을포함자료 : Bloomberg, OECD

9 2. 세계경제전망 2 주요국경제 u 미국경제는경제심리호조, 확장적재정정책등에힘입어견조한성장흐름을 지속할전망 u 유로지역도고용상황, 기업심리등의개선으로소비및투자가확대되며양호 한성장세를유지할전망 미국 ISM 지수및소비자신뢰지수 유로지역산업생산, 소매판매및경기체감지수 자료 : 구매관리자협회, 컨퍼런스보드 자료 : Eurostat, EU 집행위

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11 2. 세계경제전망 2 주요국경제 u 일본경제는수출, 투자를중심으로잠재성장률을상회하는성장세를이어갈전망 u 중국경제는질적성장을위한구조개혁및디레버리징정책추진으로지난해보다성장률이다소낮아질전망 일본수출, 자본재출하및경기선행지수 중국고정투자 1) 및소매판매 자료 : 일본은행, 경제산업성, 내각부 주 : 1) 누계기준자료 : CEIC

12 2. 세계경제전망 3 세계교역및국제유가 u 세계교역은양호한증가세를이어갈전망 수입유발효과가큰투자확대에힘입어세계수입수요가꾸준히늘어날것으로예상 u 국제유가는원유수요가꾸준히늘어나겠으나셰일오일증가, 감산합의조기종료가능성등으로상승세가점차둔화될전망 향후 OPEC 산유국의정치 경제상황전개에따라큰폭의등락을보일가능성잠재 권역별세계교역량 1) 미국의셰일오일및시추기수 1) 주 : 1) 수입량기준, 3 개월이동평균자료 : CPB 주 : 1) ~18.1 월셰일오일생산량은전망치자료 : EIA, Baker Hughes

13 U.S. Monetary Policy: Federal Reserve System FRB in Washington and 12 Regional Banks: 半官半民 Independence of FRB: 14-year term and budget Accountability to Congress Functions of the Federal Reserve Monetary policy Lender of last resort Banking supervision and regulation Providing services such as currency and check clearing Fiscal agent for the Treasury

14 FOMC Decision Process Federal Reserve System Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): 7+5=12. 7: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB) 5: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Beige Book: 2 weeks before FOMC by 12 Reserve Banks (Greenbook: usually Wednesday before FOMC) (Bluebook: usually Thursday before FOMC) Teal Book: as a binder starting in June 2010, the 13 th member

15 Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism The traditional (or textbook) story Open market operations The level of reserves held by banks The federal funds rate

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17 Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism (cont d) The traditional (or textbook) story Open market operations The level of reserves held by banks The federal funds rate However, after the financial crisis Pressures on financial firms reflected in financial markets Risk spread widened, while funds rate pushed to almost zero Restarting financial markets: LSAPs and forward guidance

18 Monetary Policy Tools as listed on federalreserve.gov Open Market Operations Discount Rate (proposed by Regional Fed and approved) Reserve Requirements (set by FRB) Term Deposit Facility Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) Interest on Required Reserve Balances and Excess B. Maturity Extension Program and Reinvestment Policy N.B. Six Expired Tools: alphabet soup (e.g. TAF, TSLF, PDCF, CPFF etc)

19 Recent Actions of the Federal Reserve 2007 October: Summary of Economic Projections* 2008 November/December: Quantitative Easing 2010 November: QE September: Operation Twist 2012 September, December: QE December: ZIRP (between 0 and 25 basis points) Calendar-based forward guidance Threshold-based forward guidance Qualitative forward guidance

20 For release at 2 p.m. EDT May 2, 2018 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic (more)

21 For release at 2 p.m. EDT May 2, conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams. -0-

22 For release at 2 p.m. EDT May 2, 2018 Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on May 2, 2018: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 1.75 percent, effective May 3, As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: Effective May 3, 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.50 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day. The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing during each calendar month that exceeds $18 billion, and to reinvest in agency mortgage-backed securities the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month that exceeds $12 billion. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions. In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 2.25 percent. This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy. More information regarding open market operations and reinvestments may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website.

23 For release at 2 p.m. EDT March 21, 2018 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12 month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This (more)

24 For release at 2 p.m. EDT March 21, assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams

25 Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

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27 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 21, 2018 Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents under their individual assessments of projected appropriate monetary policy, March 2018 Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes Percent Median 1 Centraltendency 2 Range 3 Variable Longer Longer Longer run run run ChangeinrealGDP Decemberprojection Unemploymentrate Decemberprojection PCEinflation December projection CorePCEinflation Decemberprojection Memo: Projected appropriate policy path Federalfundsrate Decemberprojection Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The December projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 12 13, One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the December 12 13, 2017, meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the March 20 21, 2018, meeting. 1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. 2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. 3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. 4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.

28 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 21, 2018 Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, and over the longer run Percent Change in real GDP Median of projections Central tendency of projections Range of projections 3 Actual Longer run Percent Unemployment rate Longer run Percent PCE inflation Longer run Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

29 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, March 21, 2018 Figure 2. FOMC participants assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate Percent Longer run Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.

30 Explanation of Economic Projections Charts The charts show actual values and projections for three economic variables, based on FOMC participants individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as measured from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Unemployment Rate the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. PCE Inflation as measured by the change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Information for these variables is shown for each year from 2013 to 2020, and for the longer run. The solid blue line, labeled Actual, shows the historical values for each variable. The solid red lines depict the median projection in each period for each variable. The median value in each period is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. The range and central tendency for each variable in each projection period are depicted in box and whiskers format. The blue connected horizontal and vertical lines ( whiskers ) represent the range of the projections of policymakers. The bottom of the range for each variable is the lowest of all of the projections for that year or period. Likewise, the top of the range is the highest of all of the projections for that year or period. The light blue shaded boxes represent the central tendency, which is a narrower version of the range that excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year or period. The longer-run projections, which are shown on the far right side of the charts, are the rates of growth, unemployment, and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time maybe in five or six years in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy s normal or trend rate of growth and its normal unemployment rate over the longer run. The longer-run projection shown for inflation is the rate of inflation judged to be most consistent with the Federal Reserve s dual mandate.

31 Explanation of Policy Path Chart This chart is based on policymakers assessments of appropriate monetary policy, which, by definition, is the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her interpretation of the Federal Reserve s dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest ⅛ percentage point) of an individual participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

32 For release at 2:00 p.m., EST, December 13, 2017 Figure 2. FOMC participants assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate Percent Longer run Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specifed calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.

33 미연준기준금리와채권금리젂망 연준의 Longer run 점도표는점짂적으로상향조정예상 3 월 FOMC 는올해기준금리읶상횟수를 3 회로유지했지맂내용면에서는실질적으로올해 4 회읶상가능성을시사 올해기준금리 3 회읶상과 4 회읶상을주장했던멤버수는모두 6 명으로동읷해의견이팽팽히나뉘어짐 점도표에나타난내년기준금리읶상횟수는기졲 2 회에서 3 회로상향 년과 2020 년, Longer run 의예상기준금리중갂값과평균도모두상향조정 2017 년 12 월 vs 년 3 월점도표 : 예상기준금리중간값과평균값모두상향조정 (%) 2017 년 12 월 2018 년 3 월 평균 : 2.02 중갂 : 2.1 평균 : 2.19 중갂 : 2.1 평균 : 2.70 중갂 : 2.7 평균 : 2.92 중갂 : 2.9 평균 : 3.02 중갂 : 3.1 평균 : 3.33 중갂 : 3.4 평균 : 2.78 중갂 : 2.8 평균 : 2.87 중갂 : 년 2019 년 2020 년 Longer-run 자료 : FED, 하나금융투자 국내채권이미선 I 크레딧김상맂 I 해외크레딧김혜경 2018 년 4 월 Bond Street 20

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35 (%) 점도표 : 연준위원들의기준금리전망 년말 16년말 17년말장기 (Longer run)

36 Recent Actions of the Federal Reserve (cont d) 2007 October: Summary of Economic Projections 2008 November/December: Quantitative Easing 2010 November: QE September: Operation Twist 2012 September, December: QE3 ($85 billion per month: 40 MBS + 45 Treasury) 2008 December: ZIRP (between 0 and 25 basis points) Calendar-based forward guidance Threshold-based forward guidance Qualitative forward guidance

37 Recent Actions of the Federal Reserve (cont d) 2007 October: Summary of Economic Projections 2008 November/December: Quantitative Easing 2008 December: ZIRP (between 0 and 25 basis points) Calendar-based forward guidance 2008 December: for some time 2009 March: for an extended period 2011 August: at least through mid-2013 * 2012 January: at least through late September: at least through mid-2015 Threshold-based forward guidance

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39 Recent Actions of the Federal Reserve (cont d) 2007 October: Summary of Economic Projections 2008 November/December: Quantitative Easing 2008 December: ZIRP (between 0 and 25 basis points) Calendar-based forward guidance Threshold-based forward guidance (December 11-12, 2012) the Committee currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percent above the Committee s 2 percent longerrun goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings of financial developments.

40 Recent Actions of the Federal Reserve (cont d) 2007 October: Summary of Economic Projections 2008 November/December: Quantitative Easing 2008 December: ZIRP (between 0 and 25 basis points) Calendar-based forward guidance Threshold-based forward guidance (December 11-12, 2012) Qualitative forward guidance patient in raising rates reasonably confident for inflation behavior

41 Central Banking after the Global Financial Crisis: Monetary Stability and Financial Stability What is Financial Stability? Macroprudential Policy (vs. Microprudential Policy) Microfoundations for Macroprudential Policy MM theorem is wrong. General equilibrium (vs. partial equilibrium) Externalities and information problems Price setters (vs. price takers) Efficient allocation and dynamic analysis

42 파월의회증언전후미국채 2 년, 10 년금리변화 (%) 미국채 2년금리 ( 좌 ) (%) 2.30 미국채 10년금리 ( 우 ) /27 2/28 3/1 3/2 자료 : Bloomberg, NH 투자증권리서치본부

43 FF 선물에반영된연준금리인상확률 (%) 년 12월 FOMC ( 파월의회증언전 ) 18년 12월 FOMC ( 파월의회증언중 ) 18년 12월 FOMC ( 파월의회증언후 ) 1회이상 2회이상 3회이상 4회이상 자료 : Bloomberg, NH 투자증권리서치본부

44 3 월 2 일이주열총재의연임소식이알려지며단기금리급등 (%) 국고 3 년 9:03 9:16 9:26 9:39 9:54 10:12 10:44 11:33 13:35 14:08 14:24 14:27 14:27 14:32 14:44 14:52 14:55 15:03 15:08 15:23 15:28 자료 : Bloomberg, NH 투자증권리서치본부

45 한국은행금통위원임기와통화정책성향 직위 성명 임기 선임절차 2017년통화정책성향 의장 이주열 ~ 한국은행총재 Hawk 위원 윤면식 ~ 한국은행부총재 Hawk 위원 함준호 ~ 은행연합회추천 Moderate Hawk 위원 이일형 ~ 한국은행추천 Hawk(17.10 인상소수의견 ) 위원 조동철 ~ 기획재정부추천 Dove 위원 고승범 ~ 금융위원회추천 Dove 위원 싞인석 ~ 대한상의추천 Moderate Hawk 자료 : 한국은행, 하나금융투자

46 그림 1. 임지원신임금통위원의통화정책에대한시기별스탠스변화 (%) 05.8 " 한국경제, 금리인상정당화할만큼강하지않음 " 04.8 " 금리인하의내수부양효과기대어렵다 " 한국은행기준금리와임지원신임금통위원후보의통화정책스탠스 07.7 "4Q 추가인상 06.4 전망 " " 금통위매파적성향강화. 연내50bp 인상전망 " 12.8 " 한은성장률전망 3% 에서 2% 대로하향예상 " " 내년 1Q 부터인상가능성. 연50-75bp" 14.7 " 금리인하최선의정책인지고민필요. 효과불확실한반면부작용은확실 " 13.4 " 한국경제다른나라대비부진. 안정적인물가로금리인하여건성숙 " 15.4 " 올해금리동결전망유지 " 18.4 "7 월인상하겠지만가능성은박빙 " 16.3 " 추가완화로인한득과실계산필요 " 10.2 "G20이후통화정책방향결정될 16.6 " 지난달만장일치후 0 것. 금리인상시점 3Q로지연 " 시그널없이금리인하. 완벽한유턴 " 자료 : 각언론보도, 하나금융투자

47 BONDTALK Analyst 이미선 년 5 월통화정책회의문구변경사항 표 1. 최근 3 개월통화정책방향문구변경사항 세계경제 국내경제 소비자물가 금융시장 정책방향 18년 2월 18년 4월 18년 5월 세계경제는견조한성장세를지속하였다. 국제금 융시장은미 중교역관계악화우려등으로국채 금리와주가가하락하는등높은변동성을나타 내었다.( 주요국통화정책정상화기대삭제, 미중 교역관계악화우려추가 ) 세계경제는성장세가확대되는움직임을지속하였다. 국제금융시장은주요국통화정책정상화기대강화등으로국채금리가상승하고주가가하락하는등변동성이크게확대되었다.( 주가변동성확대추가 ) 앞으로세계경제의성장세는주요국통화정책정상화속도, 미국정부정책방향, 보호무역주의확산움직임등에영향받을것으로보인다. 국내경제는건설투자가감소하였으나수출이호조를지속하는가운데소비와설비투자가양호한흐름을보이면서견실한성장세를이어간것으로판단된다. 고용상황은 1월중취업자수증가폭이일시적요인으로확대되었으나개선세는여전히완만한것으로보인다. 앞으로국내경제의성장흐름은지난 1월전망경로와대체로부합할것으로예상된다. 투자가둔화되겠으나소비는가계의소득여건개선등으로꾸준한증가세를이어가고수출도세계경제의호조에힘입어양호한흐름을지속할것으로예상된다. 소비자물가는축산물가격하락, 개인서비스요금상승폭축소등으로최근 1% 수준으로오름세가둔화되었다. 근원인플레이션율 ( 식료품및에너지제외지수 ) 은 1% 대초반으로하락하였으며일반인기대인플레이션율은 2% 대중반을유지하였다. 소비자물가상승률은당분간 1% 대초중반수준을보이다가하반기이후오름세가확대되면서목표수준에점차근접할것으로전망된다. 근원인플레이션율도완만하게상승할것으로보인다. ( 연간 1% 후반전망삭제 ) 금융시장에서는국제금융시장의움직임을반영하여가격변수의변동성이크게확대되었다. 장기시장금리가상승하고주가는하락하였으며원 / 달러환율은상승후반락하였다. 가계대출은전반적인증가규모축소추세가이어지고있으나예년보다높은증가세를나타내었다. 주택가격은전반적으로낮은오름세를보였으나수도권일부지역에서상승세가확대되었다. 금융통화위원회는앞으로성장세회복이이어지고중기적시계에서물가상승률이목표수준에서안정될수있도록하는한편금융안정에유의하여통화정책을운용해나갈것이다. 국내경제가견실한성장세를지속하는가운데당분간수요측면에서의물가상승압력은크지않을것으로전망되므로통화정책의완화기조를유지해나갈것이다. 이과정에서향후성장과물가의흐름을면밀히점검하면서완화정도의추가조정여부를신중히판단해나갈것이다. 아울러주요국중앙은행의통화정책변화, 주요국과의교역여건, 가계부채증가세, 지정학적리스크등도주의깊게살펴볼것이다. 자료 : 한국은행, 하나금융투자 앞으로세계경제의성장세는보호무역주의확산움직임, 주요국통화정책정상화속도, 미국정부정책방향등에영향받을것으로보인다. ( 고려요인순서변경 ) 국내경제는수출이호조를지속하는가운데소비와설비투자가양호한흐름을보이면서견실한성장세를이어간것으로판단된다.( 건설투자감소삭제 ) 고용상황은취업자수증가폭이축소되는등회복세가둔화되었다. 앞으로국내경제의성장흐름은지난 1 월전망경로와대체로부합할것으로예상된다. 투자가둔화되겠으나소비는가계의소득여건개선등으로꾸준한증가세를이어가고수출도세계경제의호조에힘입어양호한흐름을지속할것으로예상된다. 소비자물가는축산물가격하락, 석유류가격상승폭둔화등으로 1% 대초중반수준의오름세를이어갔다. 근원인플레이션율 ( 식료품및에너지제외지수 ) 은 1% 대초중반을나타내었으며일반인기대인플레이션율은 2% 대중반을유지하였다. 소비자물가상승률은당분간 1% 대중반수준을보이다가하반기이후오름세가확대되면서목표수준에점차근접하겠으며, 연간전체로는 1월전망치 (1.7%) 를소폭하회할것으로전망된다. 근원인플레이션율도완만하게상승할것으로보인다. 금융시장은국제금융시장의움직임을반영하여다소높은변동성을나타내었다. 장기시장금리는주요국국채금리변동에영향받아하락하였다. 주가및원 / 달러환율은보호무역주의확산우려, 북한리스크완화등의영향을받으며상당폭등락하였다. 가계대출은전반적인증가규모축소추세가이어지고있으나예년보다높은증가세를나타내었다. 주택가격은수도권일부지역을중심으로오름세가둔화되었다 금융통화위원회는앞으로성장세회복이이어지고중기적시계에서물가상승률이목표수준에서안정될수있도록하는한편금융안정에유의하여통화정책을운용해나갈것이다. 국내경제가견실한성장세를지속하는가운데당분간수요측면에서의물가상승압력은크지않을것으로전망되므로통화정책의완화기조를유지해나갈것이다. 이과정에서향후성장과물가의흐름을면밀히점검하면서완화정도의추가조정여부를신중히판단해나갈것이다. 아울러주요국과의교역여건, 주요국중앙은행의통화정책변화, 가계부채증가세, 지정학적리스크등도주의깊게살펴볼것이다.( 고려요인순서변경 ) 세계경제는견조한성장세를지속하였다. 국제금융시장을보면, 대외건전성이취약한일부신흥시장국에서자본유출이확대되면서불안한모습이나타났다. 앞으로세계경제의성장세는주요국통화정책정상화속도, 보호무역주의확산움직임, ( 순서변경 ) 미국정부정책방향등에영향받을것으로보인다. 국내경제는설비투자가다소둔화되었으나소비와수출이양호한흐름을보이면서견실한성장세를이어간것으로판단된다. 고용상황은취업자수증가폭이낮은수준을지속하는등부진한모습을보였다. 앞으로국내경제의성장흐름은지난 4 월전망경로와대체로부합할것으로예상된다. 투자가둔화되겠으나소비는꾸준한증가세를이어가고수출도세계경제의호조에힘입어양호한흐름을지속할것으로예상된다. 소비자물가는농산물가격상승등으로 1% 대중반수준으로오름세가확대되었다. 근원인플레이션율 ( 식료품및에너지제외지수 ) 도 1% 대중반을나타내었으며일반인기대인플레이션율은 2% 대중반을유지하였다. 소비자물가상승률은당분간 1% 대중반수준을보이다가하반기이후오름세가확대되면서목표수준에점차근접할것으로전망된다. 근원인플레이션율도완만하게상승할것으로보인다. 금융시장은대체로안정된모습을보였다. 장기시장금리가주요국금리상승의영향으로오름세를보였으나원 / 달러환율은세계적인달러화강세, 북한리스크완화등에따라좁은범위내에서등락하였다. 가계대출은신용대출을중심으로예년보다높은증가세를지속하였다. 주택가격은수도권일부지역을중심으로오름세가둔화되었다. 금융통화위원회는앞으로성장세회복이이어지고중기적시계에서물가상승률이목표수준에서안정될수있도록하는한편금융안정에유의하여통화정책을운용해나갈것이다. 국내경제가견실한성장세를지속하는가운데당분간수요측면에서의물가상승압력은크지않을것으로전망되므로통화정책의완화기조를유지해나갈것이다. 이과정에서향후성장과물가의흐름을면밀히점검하면서완화정도의추가조정여부를신중히판단해나갈것이다. 아울러주요국중앙은행의통화정책변화, 주요국과의교역여건, 가계부채증가세, 지정학적리스크등도주의깊게살펴볼것이다. ( 고려요인순서변경 ) 2