R&D : 2012. 6. Ⅰ. R&D 1. 2. OECD 3. Ⅱ. R&D 1. 2. - 1 -
Ⅰ. R&D R&D. R&D (TFP). R&D R&D, GDP R&D (Ha and Howitt, 2007). : (1), R&D. 1. ( )(), 1 ( ), ( ). (2) -, (Penn World Table 7.0) (growth accounting) (< 1>). - 2 -
5 60.2%, 86%. < 1> 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2006-10 GDP 8.29(100) 7.78(100) 9.21(100) 6.28(100) 3.86(100) 3.39(100) TFP 2.84(34.3) 1.08(13.9) 3.99(43.3) 2.02(32.2) 1.84(47.7) 2.04(60.2) TFP () 4.06(48.9) 1.54(19.8) 5.70(61.9) 2.89(46.0) 2.63(68.1) 2.91(86.0) : %, ( ). TFP TFP TFP 1 94% TFP 65%. < 1> TFP 1 : - 3 -
2. OECD < 2> 1 TFP. TFP.. 0.3.. Gollin (2002) 0.2 0.35. Ha, Kim, and Lee (2009) 0.304, 0.313, 0.308, 0.309.., GDP 6%. 1) (perpetual inventory method)., 10 GDP. 1). - 4 -
< 2>OECD 30 TFP 1 AUS AUT BEL CAN CHE CZE 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 DNK ESP FIN FRA GBR GER GRC HUN IRL ISL ITA JPN KOR LUX MEX NLD NOR NZL POL PRT SVK SWE TUR USA 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Graphs by code year TFP_i/TFP_US k_i/k_us < 3> OECD 30 0.2.4.6 AUS AUT BEL CAN CHE CZE 0.2.4.6 DNK ESP FIN FRA GBR GER mpk 0.2.4.6 GRC HUN IRL ISL ITA JPN 0.2.4.6 KOR LUX MEX NLD NOR NZL 0.2.4.6 POL PRT SVK SWE TUR USA 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Graphs by code year - 5 -
1981 2009 OECD R&D R&D 0.6. < 2> OECD TFP : (fixed effect). ( ) t. - 6 -
, R&D 1%p 0.6%p.. 3. R&D R&D. 1976 2010 35. (2005) max (3), R&D, max.. (3). ln ln ln ln max lnln ln max (4) (stationary). - Augmented Dickey-Fuller 7.92 p 0.00. ln ln max, Johansen. - 7 -
< 3> 3.39. < 3> Johansen Sample (adjusted): 1979 2010 Included observations: 32 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: LOG(RDY); R&D, LOG(AIAMAXHP); Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) Hypothesized Trace 0.05 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** ---------------------------------------------------------------------- None * 0.476123 24.22750 15.49471 0.0019 At most 1 0.104713 3.539556 3.841466 0.0599 -------------------------------------------------------------- Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue) Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** -------------------------------------------------------------- None * 0.476123 20.68794 14.26460 0.0042 At most 1 0.104713 3.539556 3.841466 0.0599 -------------------------------------------------------------- Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values -------------------------------------------------------------- Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) -------------------------------------------------------------- LOG(RDY) LOG(AIAMAXHP) 1.000000 3.387219 (1.51918) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(LOG(RDY)) -0.013813 (0.01253) D(LOG(AIAMAXHP)) -0.000291 (6.1E-05) -------------------------------------------------------------- - 8 -
R&D 1% () (TFP) 0.295(=1/3.39) %. 5 R&D 3.38% 62.3%, R&D 1%p 5.4%p. -, R&D 4.38% 67.7%. - 1.6%, R&D 10 1%p 0.7%p - R&D. < 4> R&D (rdy; )(Ai_Amax; ).04.03.7.6.5.02.4.01.3.00 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10.2 AI_AMAX RDY - 9 -
< 4> 10 R&D (non-convergence trap). (Acemoglu, Aghion, and Zilibotti, 2003) 10 50% 65% 1960 1970. - 1991 83% 73%.. - 10 -
Ⅱ. R&D R&D. 1. (1). (5) (6),,,, 0 1. 0 1 1, (7) - 11 -
,. 1,. (8) (9).,. 1.., (10). - 12 -
(11) (9) (11). (12). (13) (14), [0, 1]., (2) (Poisson),. R&D, R&D R&D. R&D. R&D 1-13 -
(15) (17).,,. (research arbitrage equation). (15) (16),. (12) (13) (16). R&D (18), R&D. R&D,. - 14 -
(19) (20) (21). (18) (19) R&D.,. max max. (3) (dynasty) 1, - 15 -
1, ln. (22) max ln subject to, (claim),, (arbitrage).,. (Current Value Hamiltonian). ln (23) (shadow price) 1. (24) (25) - 16 -
(26) (25). (transversality condition). lim (4) ( 定常 ) 0, (25) 0. (27) (28) (27) (21), * (29) i f i f. - 17 -
(29) R&D. 2) i f i f (30) l ( R&D ): (1) 0 R&D R&D. (2) R&D. - 18 -
2. (1) :. 0.3-0.3 3) 2%, 0.02-2%, 4%. R&D. R&D - 5, 2006 2010 2.035% R&D 3.378% - 19 -
- Hicks, Harrod, 0.7 2.907%. -, R&D, 0.86. R&D - (2005) 1991 2000 0.68%, R&D 2.25% 0.30. R&D 0.1. 0.1 R&D 10% 100 R&D 90. - R&D, 100%. R&D 25-30%, 3-6% 0.1. 4) - 20 -
< 4> 0.3 () 0.02 0.86 R&D 0.30 R&D () 0.1 R&D (): (6) : l l 1:, 기준값 - R&D 2:, 기준값 - R&D < 5> < 5>. (29) (30) R&D %,, R&D 10% 1%p R&D 0.078%p(R&D ) 0.115%p(R&D ) 0.067%p(R&D ) 0.035%p(R&D ).. - 21 -
< 5> R&D < 5> R&D R&D 보조율 (%) R&D 생산성이높은경우 (lambda=0.86) 장기균형 TFP 증가율 (%) 변화량 (%p) R&D 집약도 (%) 변화량 (%p) R&D 생산성이낮은경우 (lambda=0.3) 장기균형 TFP 증가율 (%) 변화량 (%p) R&D 집약도 (%) 1 2.347 2.72906977 0.725 2.416667 변화량 (%p) 2 2.4043138 0.0573138 2.79571369 0.066644 0.754688 0.029688 2.515626 0.098959 3 2.4627604 0.0584466 2.86367487 0.067961 0.784922 0.030235 2.616408 0.100782 4 2.5223722 0.0596118 2.9329909 0.069316 0.815719 0.030797 2.719064 0.102657 5 2.5831827 0.0608105 3.00370083 0.07071 0.847095 0.031376 2.82365 0.104585 6 2.6452269 0.0620442 3.07584525 0.072144 0.879066 0.031971 2.930219 0.106569 7 2.7085411 0.0633142 3.14946638 0.073621 0.911649 0.032583 3.03883 0.108611 8 2.773163 0.0646219 3.22460812 0.075142 0.944863 0.033214 3.149543 0.110713 9 2.8391319 0.0659689 3.30131618 0.076708 0.978726 0.033863 3.262422 0.112878 10 2.9064888 0.0673569 3.37963814 0.078322 1.013259 0.034533 3.37753 0.115109 11 2.9752763 0.0687875 3.45962358 0.079985 1.048481 0.035222 3.494937 0.117407 12 3.0455388 0.0702625 3.54132416 0.081701 1.084414 0.035933 3.614713 0.119776 13 3.1173226 0.0717838 3.62479375 0.08347 1.12108 0.036666 3.736933 0.122219 14 3.1906761 0.0733535 3.71008852 0.085295 1.158502 0.037422 3.861673 0.12474 15 3.2656497 0.0749736 3.79726713 0.087179 1.196704 0.038202 3.989014 0.127341 16 3.3422961 0.0766464 3.88639082 0.089124 1.235712 0.039008 4.119039 0.130026 17 3.4206703 0.0783741 3.97752355 0.091133 1.275551 0.03984 4.251838 0.132799 18 3.5008297 0.0801594 4.0707322 0.093209 1.31625 0.040699 4.387501 0.135663 19 3.5828346 0.0820049 4.16608671 0.095355 1.357838 0.041587 4.526125 0.138624 20 3.6667478 0.0839133 4.26366026 0.097574 1.400343 0.042506 4.667811 0.141685 21 3.7526354 0.0858875 4.36352948 0.099869 1.443799 0.043456 4.812663 0.144852 22 3.8405662 0.0879308 4.46577465 0.102245 1.488237 0.044439 4.960791 0.148129 23 3.9306127 0.0900465 4.57047991 0.104705 1.533694 0.045456 5.112312 0.151521 24 4.0228508 0.0922381 4.67773353 0.107254 1.580204 0.04651 5.267347 0.155035 25 4.1173602 0.0945094 4.78762815 0.109895 1.627807 0.047603 5.426023 0.158676 26 4.2142245 0.0968643 4.90026104 0.112633 1.676542 0.048735 5.588473 0.16245 27 4.3135316 0.0993071 5.01573447 0.115473 1.726451 0.04991 5.754838 0.166365 28 4.4153741 0.1018425 5.13415594 0.118421 1.77758 0.051128 5.925265 0.170428 29 4.5198492 0.1044751 5.25563862 0.121483 1.829973 0.052394 6.099911 0.174646 30 4.6270594 0.1072102 5.38030166 0.124663 1.883682 0.053708 6.278939 0.179028-22 -