5 2011 2012 2011 9 2012 1,700 9 18 1918 2012 159
3 3 1 3 1 160
EAI SBS 2012 KEPS 2012 2011 50 5 9 2012 11 23 2 KEPS 2012 1 3 30 4 1 1 5 161
KEPS 2012 31.8 21.2 14.8 38.8 40.8 38.2 24.4 30.8 27.6 23.9 14.3 13.9 45.0 43.2 46.0 45.8 49.7 48.7 1 (3.30-4.1) 2 (4.12-15) 3 (8.20-23) 4 (10.11-14) 5 (11.25-27) 6 (12.11-13) 7 (12.20-22) 7 KEPS 2012 21.2 4 12 4 15 2 24.4 8 3 30 30.8 10 4 27.6 4 11 5-7 162
23 18 18 what if? 2012 10 4 5 163
20 46.6 25.1 18.3 26.4 20.9 23.7 17.2 40.7 46.9 27.1 44.7 17.6 1.5 31.9 26.8 31.9 49.4 28.1 13.7 5.4 3.1 40.0 21.6 23.0 164
5 165 38.2 23.9 27.6 19-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 35.6 40.7 18.3 26.8 29.6 52.2 64.1 49.6 28.1 72.4 59.9 46.8 38.4 44.3 21.8 46.9 10.9 41.5 36.1 31.9 44.7 12.3 61.8 46.1 50.1 37.9 36.4 49.4 85.0 7.6 14.7 9.5 23.0 17.0 33.6 57.2 58.5 27.0 20.9 25.1 30.6 30.9 20.7 11.4 19.6 27.7 27.6 15.6 25.7 23.0 23.0 34.0 17.2 28.9 18.1 24.6 26.8 17.6 34.5 13.4 23.2 18.5 24.6 25.1 13.7 3.1 54.7 27.9 29.9 21.6 39.1 24.9 14.5 12.6 28.9 26.4 46.6 33.8 27.7 17.9 12.9 19.4 34.9 0.0 16.0 21.8 28.7 24.8 31.4 23.7 48.5 32.1 27.9 31.9 27.1 43.8 15.0 19.7 19.3 27.2 28.0 28.1 5.4 31.8 45.6 48.2 40.0 36.0 31.5 18.0 13.8
31.5 24.9 57.2 33.6 18 6 18 75.8 17 63.0 16 70.8 2012 3 50 89.1 50 82.0 16 50 83.7 50 10 60 16 78.718 80.9 76.474.8 166
50 20 20 20 17 20 46.2 70.1 20 46.0 69.2 20 2013 10 30-40 3 1 1 118 50.6 49.7 56.7 42.8 56.2 43.3 51.6 48.0 50.4 49.2 5 167
2 KEPS 2012 KEPS 2012 KEPS 2012 2 (4.12-4.15), 3 (8.20-8.23), 4 (10.11-10.14), 6 (12.11-12.12 0 10 1 2 KEPS 2012 box plot median 25 75 0 2 168
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 (4.12-4.15) 3 (8.20-8.23) 4 (10.11-10.14) 6 (12.11-12.12) KEPS 2012 KEPS 2012 3 23 3 8 410 5 169
612 6 12 52.8 0 27.2 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 (4.12-4.15) 3 (8.20-8.23) 4 (10.11-10.14) 6 (12.11-12.12) 170
KEPS 2012 2 2012. 3 10 8 6 4 2 0 4 5 2 3 612 19 23 4.8 7.5 6.7 0 12 4.1 6.8 5.7 0 14.1 612 5 171
KEPS 2012 6 10 2012. 12 8 6 4 2 0 26.5 32.1 17.2 0 23.2 27.2 2 60 50.1 0 32.6 20 30 40 50 60 20.6 15.7 15.3 8.3 3.1 1.5 4.7 7.2 18.4 33.3 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.2 9.9 5.4 6.7 5.1 8.4 6.1 2.2 2.1 5.9 14.2 32.6 5.7 5.4 6.1 4.5 4.0 172
410 86.6 89.9 79.7 83.3 92.3 92.4 6 3 3 12 7 KEPS 2012 45 6 6 5 173
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 89.9 89.8 86.6 79.7 85.6 71.3 92.3 91.1 88.5 4 (10.11-14) 5 (11.25-27) 6 (12.11-13) 18 16 19 KEPS 2012 410 23.9 27.6 51.5 38.2 174
51.6 48.0 4 5 410 7 78.8 18.1 18 30,721,459 5,560,58418.1 18 1 2 1,080,496 18 6 410 KEPS 2012 11.2 7 10 418 47.7 48.7 1.0 KEPS 2012 5 410 712 20-22 6 5 175
4 10 11-14 7 12 20-22 95.0 11.2 18.1 51.7 4.5 87.0 78.8 47.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.3 1.1 3 410 KEPS 2012 259 7 7 474 18.147 30 40 KEPS 2012 1225.8 3472.8 7410 KEPS 2012 358 215 176
% 20 41.8 27 58.2 20 30 40 50 60 11 13 3 6 5 8 1 10 11 14 9 4 23.4 28.6 6.6 12.1 9.8 18.0 1.5 20.6 23.3 28.7 18.4 9.0 21 44.9 26 55.1 1 6 8 1.7 13.1 17.6 2 5.0 10 20.7 15 2 3 30.9 4.1 6.9 KEPS 2012 19.5 2-3 23.8 16.2 59.5 5 177
66.4 50.1 20.7 6.0 % % 2-3 12 1 34 9 11 25.8 1.4 72.8 19.5 23.8 35.3 23.0 37.8 6.3 10.5 1 8 16.2 12.3 6 12.1 22.0 4 9 3 3 1 10 31 9.0 19.3 6.0 5.4 1.5 20.7 66.4 15.3 33.7 15.4 1.2 4.7 18.2 50.1 178
Duverger s Law 3 1 3 1987 3 3 3 1852 41 1+1=2 5 179
18 5 1 18 2013 50 60 2 25 Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, Phil Paolino and David W. Rohde. 1995. Third- Party and Independent Candidates in American Politics: Wallace, Anderson, and Perot. Political Science Quarterly 110, 3: 349-367. 180