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1 01-02 WTO

2 <> 1986 WTO WTO WTO, GDP 750, (2000 ), WTO, WTO,,, EU, WTO, WTO WTO,, WTO,,,, HS,,, WTO CGE WTO 13 3, 10 1

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6 5

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8 I II WTO 1 WTO 2 WTO WTO 1 2 WTO WTO V Executive Summary 7

9 <II -1> WTO <II -2> <III-1> WTO <III-2> <III-3> <III-4> III <III-6> WTO <III-7> <III-8> <III-9> <III-10> <III-11> <III-12> <-1> CGE <-2> <-3> <-4> <-5> <-6> WTO <-7> WTO <-8> WTO 3 <9> WTO 3 5 8

10 < II-1> <-1> CGE <-2> <-3> < <-5> <-6> <-7> <-8> <-9> <-10> <-11> <-12> <-13> GDP <-14> (EV) 9

11 I (GATT), 19951WTO WTO, WTO 5 EU, WTO WTO WTO WTO, km , 17 WTO,, 21 1 WTO 1990, WTO 15 9, 5, WTO (1996 ) Economist 1 WTO, 10

12 11 WTO WTO, WTO 2 WTO 19974, WTO (R Ruggiero)

13 12 Ianchovichina and McDougall(2000) Global Dynamic Model(GDYN)

14 13

15 II WTO II WTO, WTO 1 WTO WTO WTO, EU, WTO, WTO 11 ( I)14 ( II), 12 3, GATT WTO , GATT WTO GATT , 2/3 3 WTO, 12 (Article XII Accession: 1 Any state or separate customs territory possessing full autonomy in the conduct of its external commercial relations and of the other matters provided for in this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreement may accede to this Agreement, on terms to be agreed between it and the WTO Such accession shall apply to this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreement annexed thereto 2 Decisions on accession shall be taken by the Ministerial Conference The Ministerial Conference shall approve the agreement on the terms of accession by a two-thirds majority of the Members of the WTO 3 Accession to a Plurilateral Trade Agreement shall be governed by the provisions of that Agreement) 14

16 < II-1> WTO 12 (WTO ) WTO - - WTO - -,, (WTO ) ( ) WTO - - WTO (WTO ) WTO ( 2/3 ) ( ) ( ) WTO ( 30 ) : (1999), WTO < II-1> WTO WTO WTO 12, WTO, WTO,, WTO 15

17 ,, 142,,,,, WTO, 2/3 4, WTO WTO 30 WTO, WTO, 6 5 WTO ,,, EU (Observer) 6 UN, OECD, UNCTAD, IMF, World Bank, FAO, WIPO 7 16

18 WTO 1995 WTO 76, , , , , <II-1> WTO ( ) WTO : WTO (wwwwtoorg) 142 WTO,,,,,,, 8 GATT ( 135 GATT ) WTO WTO 9 ( ),,, 32,,, 3 29 WTO, 20 8,,, 9, WTO, 21, WTO, 9 (Chinese Taipei) WTO 17

19 , 10, -,,,, WTO,,,, WTO,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 26, WTO WTO,, , 18 (memorandum), 7,,,, ,,, 10,,,, ( ) WTO GATT/WTO 1947GATT 1949 GATT GATT 1987 WTO, 13 GATT/WTO, EU,, 1994 GATT,,, 18

20 , 1995 WTO WTO, 1997 ( ) EU WTO <II-2> GATT/WTO , GATT ( ), GATT, GATT, GATT, GATT ( ), UR GATT - 7, GATT GATT WTO, WTO - (1,584 ), ( ) ( ), NATO - ( ), APEC -,, USTR ( ) -WTO EU-WTO PNTR PNTR WTO, WTO WTO WTO GATT, GATT, 1972 UN 19

21 ,, WTO MFN WTO,, WTO MFN WTO, 1 GDP,, EU,, GDP, ,,,, TPRM, 20

22 III WTO WTO, ( ) 1,, , ,223 5,685 (HS 8 ) 11, 10-20% 5,685 2,167 ( 38%) 1-10% 1,550 27%, 20-30% 984 (173%) 30% 84%, 50% 23%132,,, 100%80% 5 75% 55% %, 60-80%,,, 50% 21

23 <III-1> WTO (1999, %) (, %) 9(02) 22(04) 32(06) 23(04) 46(08) 760(134) 984(173) 2167(381) 1550(273) 92(16) : WTO (%point) (%) ( 25% ) <III-2 > 12,,,,,,,,, TV,,, CD,, <III-2> : WTO 22

24 ,, < 2> 30% 88 16%, 30% % 88 30% 10-20% 21%1,204, 10% 712%(4,045 ) <III-3> (%) (HS 8 ) (%) , , , , : III III 23

25 III ( ) (HS 8 ) (%) , , , : III (HS 8) (%) , , : 1) 2)

26 III 1) <III-6> WTO 2) (1999) III III 25

27 : 1) 2) GTAP Database version 4 3) <III-6>, 1999, 63% 41%, 33%25% 20% (24%), (22%), (22%), (22%) 10% (15%), (17%), (14%), (15%), (11%), (18%), (14%), (12%), (18%), (16%),,,, 10%, 64% % %, 639%631%, %54%, %161%,,, 40% 30%,,,,,,,,,,,,, 10%, 40%,

28 168% % 14 WTO 50% , % 20-30%, 42 53% 10-20%, (HS 10 ) 321% 5-10% % 01-25% 94,, 74% 27

29 <III-7> (%) (%) , , , , (copper wire) , : <III-8 > (%) (%) : WTO, 3,, % 10-20%,, %, 370, 463% 28

30 25-5% %, 11%, 9 <III-9> (%) , - - -, - - -,, ,, -,, , 29

31 ,, - - -, - - -, - - -, - (Copper wire) ,, 6 HS , 55%, 16, 30-50% HS , %,,,, HS % 20-30%,, 30

32 ,, HS , ,654 24% HS 5407 (4 ) 23% 22% HS % 148% HS ,746, %,, 21% HS ,, %, , 35%, HS ,, 21%, HS % 25% , 10-20% HS HS % 31

33 1998 1, , %, , % 1999, 175% 16% HS , , %,,, 15% HS % 25,986, HS % 1,927, HS HS %214% HS HS %, %107% HS %, % 2, % HS %, HS %, , , % 10% % 1852 HS , HS % % 7, % 4, %,,, HS % 32

34 01-25%, HS HS %, ,409 4,914 HS %, , ,029 48%,,,,, 2 17 WTO,, (III-10 ), %(300 ), 2000 Economist 18, ( ), ( ), WTO , WTO 5 WTO Economist A Survey of China: Now Comes the Hard Part 33

35 <III-10> : (2000), WTO WTO,,,, 1) WTO ( ) WTO,, GATT/WTO GATT 8 (Fees and Formalities connected with Importation and Exportation) WTO (WTO Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures) GATT 8, WTO 1979 (Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures), 34

36 ,, WTO GATT GATT 11, 13 GATT 3 2), ( ),, , %( ) (State MEP),, 19 USITC(1999) p3-10,,,,,,,, 35

37 ,,,, 4 3) WTO,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 4),,,,,,, , 88, 44 22,,,,,,,,,,, 36

38 <III-11> ( : ) 37

39 38

40 : HS, (product labeling and registration) 20,,,, 39

41 1) WTO (STEs: State trading enterprises),, ( ),, WTO WTO WTO (GATT ) WTO, 2) (foreign trade right) (SETC; State Economic and Trade Commission) (MOFTEC)

42 ,, 1996 (Sino foreign) 1999 WTO 6,000, 61 8,000 22,000 3),,,,,,,,,, WTO 4) 41

43 ,,,,,,, WTO,, WTO WTO WTO,,,, (Tea),,,,,,, (Antimony), WTO, 3 42

44 1) WTO (TRIPs: Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) WTO TRIPs, WTO 1999,, TRIPs,,, 2),,,,,, 100%,,,,,, IBM Intel, Bell 43

45 1990, 1996 WTO TRIPs 1992, ,,, 3),,,,,,, (SDPC) (MOFTEC), TRIPs WTO,,,,,, 44

46 45,, WTO, <III-12> <III-12> 1) WTO,

47 , 30,,,,,,,,,, WTO 2) GATT , WTO, GATS(General Agreement on Trade in Services)TRIPs WTO,,,,,,,, 3) GATT 10,, 46

48 WTO, GATT 17, GATS, TRIPs,,,,,, WTO,, 4) GATT 10, WTO,,, 47

49 5),,,,,,,, 6) WTO,,,,,,,, WTO 7) TRIMs

50 ,,,,, 49

51 WTO WTO WTO GATT/WTO (, 1995), WTO (, 1999), GATT/WTO (, 1995), WTO (, 1995), WTO (, 1995a), WTO (, 1998) (1999) WTO, (1999)WTO ASEAN 1990 WTO WTO (Harris, 1997), (Feng and Huang, 1997, Bach, Martin, and Stevens, 1996), WTO (Wei, 1998, Lardy, 1996, Sheingming, 1997, Lei and Huang, 1997), (Geest, 1998), (Wang, 1997) (CGE) 50

52 51 <-1> CGE (1999) WTO, (1999) (2000)

53 : GTAPGlobal Trade Analysis Project : (2000),, p 6, <3> (2000) 1997 CGE,, ( ), GDP < >, GDP GDP (1999) (1999), (MFA), GDP,, WTO (1999) GTAP APEC ( ) (1999), MFA 52

54 22, WTO 12%,, 2 - (CGE), 23 CGE WTO, 1) CGE, CGE,,, <-1 > CGE % 53

55 <-1 > CGE

56 n = = m = = = = ),,, (Walras Law), (1) r r j l k = l (2) r r j ( ) j = k j l r k r r ( ) lr j kr j r j ( ), i q r (, ( ) 55

57 ) r i (3) qr i = dcr i + d zr ji + x j s i sr i xsr r s i, i (3) r i d i d cr, j ji zr x, s i sr (3), (4) i mr i ji m cr m zr m = m + m (4) r i i cr j zr ji j ), - (Cobb-Douglas) (composite consumption) - 56

58 (5) ur i i i = δ r * cr, where δ r = 1 i i i δ r r i, ur r c i, r i, - CES i i c r (6) σ i c i (6) cr i i c d i cr mcr i c σ 1 σ i 1 c i i σ 1 = Ψ σ c + σ c i σ c i i, i ψ dcr r i i, mcr r i (duality) (6), CES (7)(8) i i i ci (7) d = c + σ cr r c{ p p di r cr} (8) cr { } i i i ci mi m = cr + σ c p p r cr c (composite price index), d ( ), m, r(c) ( ) (7)(8) ( σ c i ) 57

59 ),, ( ), (9) (9) zr { } ji dr ji σ 1 = + mr ji σ 1 Φ σ σ σ σ 1 Φ, d m (6), (10) zr { } ji ji ji dji d = zr + σ p p r zr (11) zr { } ji ji ji mji m = zr + σ p p r zr ji r p r j i dji mji, pzr ( pzr ) r j ( ) i σ (10)(11) (11), (12) 58

60 (12) zsr { } ji ji mji mji m = mzr + σ m p p zr zsr zsr ( ) ji mji m p r zsr j s i ( ) (12) (12), (3) ) ( ) i ci p cif rs p rs i fi mi t rs, (fob ) p rs p r i srs i ci (13) p = p + rs rs t i rs fi mi (14) p = p rs r s i rs i rs " r s ", srs (export tax) (13) (shock) i i i (15) p = p r ξ * sr i ξ sr s sr r i ( s ) rs sr r mi (15) p ( cr mji 16), p ( 17) zr mi i (16) p = p + cr r t mi cr mji i (17) p = p + zr r t mji zr tcr mi ( tzr mji ) r ( ) i (15) (16)(17), (8)(11) 59

61 2) CGE - CGE, CGE CGE CGE Ianchovichina and McDougall(2000) GDYN GDYN GDYN (temporary disequilibrium approach),,,,,, GDYN (adaptive expectations) Ianchovichina and McDougall(2000), <-2> e ng EE e (18) r = ε [ k 100 K T ] 100 µ E T + r r r ge t e (19) [ ] r = µ r r r r r r r r r r r 60

62 (20) ng k 1 a ng (21) = [ T ] k r ge r µ ε r ng [ ] = ik ε i k k r ϕ r r r k K r r r r r r r r : r ge r t r e r e r a r r r r r k r ng r : r (%) : r (%) : r (shift variable) : r (gross) (RORGTARG(r)) (%) : r (%) k : r ng K r : r i r εr : r (%) : r EE µ r : r E r r k r : r µ : r (%) (%) µ : r ik ϕ r : r - T : (time), (,, t I(t) ) CGE,, Ianchovichina and McDougall(2000) ( T ), (T=0) 24, (T=1) T=0 ( 18), 61

63 , (Ianchovichina and McDougall ),,,, (19), (18), (20), Ianchovichina and McDougall(2000),, (21) (+) (20), < IV-2> (r e ) (K), (r a ) (K) ( ) (r t ) ( IV-2 ) 62

64 < IV-2> r a r e r t K 0 K *, (18), < IV-2> 1, (19)(20) (gradual equalization) ( IV-2 2) (r t ) GEMPACK (source code)< 3> (18) ~ (21),,, CGE,, 63

65 CGE,,,,, GTAP 25,, World Bank Global Economic Perspectives Data Base IMF Balances of Payments Statistics 3 47,, 4 (,, ), (EU ), (ASEAN ) ( ) 29, 3(,, ), 1 25 WTO, WTO 64

66 <IV-3> σ1 σ 2 σ3 CGE GTAP (σ1 1-3, 520 ( ) (σ

67 , , 024,, 3 1 2, WTO, (1998), GDYN III <IV-4> <IV-4> ( : %, ) EV GDP(%) (%) TOT(%) (%) (%) : EV (%) (equivalent variation) : 1997,

68 17 29,, 26 GDP, 087%GDP, GDP GDP Li and Zhai(2000) WTO GDP153%, Lejour(2000) 21%GDP Walmsley and Hertel(2000), Feng and Huang(1997), Fang and Zheng(2000), (1999) (2000) CGE,,, 02%,, 71%, 48% % 12%, WTO,, 67

69 <IV-5>,, 27 1) 1 27, 29,, 1) <IV-5> ( 68

70 2) <IV- 6> :, 27 15,,,,,,,,,,,, 39 28,,,, 37, 11, 8,, (56 ), (13 ), (11 ) 69

71 7, 1,, Li and Zhai(2000) Lejour(2000),,, (MFA) EU,, ( ) MFA Li and Zhai (2000) Lejour (2000) Li and Zhai, Lejour Lejour,, Li and Zhai <IV-4> WTO GDP, <IV-5> ( )39 < IV-5> GDP GDP 1:1 ( ) GDP,, 70

72 2),,, 1990, 27 5, 22, (37%), (17%), (7%),,,,, 4-6%, 2-3%, 53, 10 64%, 10 9 ( 11) 1,,,,,,, % 20%4% 71

73 024%, 41% 09%, 029%, 08%, 27% 46%,,,,,, 40% (66%), (46%), (41%), 10% (19%), (14%), (14%), (12%) (30 ), (25 ), (21 ), 5,,,, 1, 597% 46%, 509% 41%, 336%, 66%,,, 394%321%, 2% 3%, 29% ( 56 ) 72

74 , (2 ) (25 ) 14 7,,, , 6 <IV-6>, , 228%376% 1999, 206%308% WTO 73

75 <IV-6> WTO ( : %, ) 123(100%) 117(100%) 64 28(228%) 3( 24%) 25(203%) : : 44(376%) 13(111%) 31(265%) <IV-7> ( 74

76 ,,, 56, 16, WTO, 29 <IV-7>, 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 30 60%51% 7, 15, 75

77 ,,,, 31,, 3,, 1,, 1998,, %, 30%, WTO 3, <IV-8>, 3 298%, 231% 5 77%, 23% 76

78 <IV-8> WTO , 56 <IV-9> WTO Total WTO,,, WTO 4 WTO WTO, 5, WTO, 77

79 1995, 32 WTO 20, WTO ( ) (WTO ) 2 WTO (deviations) (FDI),,, GDP,, 1970, % % ( IV-3 ) 78

80 < IV-4> WTO ( ), < IV-4>,, (source), WTO, 10 5%,, WTO, WTO, 79

81 ,,, WTO 10 WTO 1) < IV-5> 3 WTO 13,, WTO 80

82 WTO,, MFA ( IV-10 ), <IV-10> \ ( : ) : Werner International Management Consultants(1999), Hourly Labor Costs in the Apparel Industry, 1998 < IV-5>, < IV-6> WTO WTO 10, ( IV-7 ) WTO 5, 5 3-7% 5,, 81

83 ,, WTO, ( IV-9 ) <IV-4> 10 17,, 82

84 14, 2) MFA WTO 6 77%, 83

85 , %, 15%, WTO 5 116%, 10, (IV-5),,,, WTO, 2 2%7%, 2, -10%20% 84

86 < IV-11>,, WTO 6 140%,, WTO WTO (IV-4),,,,, (40% ) 10%,, (80% ) 10-20%, 85

87 WTO,, GATT/WTO (MFA) , WTO 2005, WTO 10, , WTO % 5, % 86

88 2000 GDP < IV-13>GDP WTO (deviations), % GDP 0869%, GDP < IV-13>, WTO 10 GDP, 10 GDP WTO GDP,,, 2020 GDP, (IV-3), WTO 87

89 GDP, GDP WTO, WTO (EV) GDP 6,, WTO, 5 114,, 10, (IV-4), GDP,, 88

90 WTO, WTO,, 89

91 V WTO, WTO,, % % 6,223 5,685,,,, (tariff peak),,,,,,,,, WTO WTO,, WTO 1 IV,,, WTO GDP, GDP WTO, WTO 90

92 ,, ( ) WTO, <IV- 4>< IV-13>, GDP WTO, WTO, WTO, <IV-5>< IV-12>, WTO,, 34,, 2 WTO ,,, 2001), 91

93 ,,,,, WTO, WTO WTO WTO, WTO,,, WTO,,,, R&D, WTO,,, (2001), 5%,, 92

94 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (, 1999) WTO, (greenfield) (M&A),,,, 3 WTO, WTO IV, WTO, ( IV-9 ), WTO 93

95 10,,,,,,,,,, (, 1999, p 220), WTO, 2000, 2, 4050%,, 36,,, 94

96 , 3,, 1996, 93% 501%3, 406%, 90% 427%(1996 )329% MFN,,,,,,, WTO 1,,,, ( ),,,,,, 95

97 WTO 1999,, 3 WTO, 3, WTO 3,, 3 WTO, 3, WTO 96

98 [ ] a WTO, 8 4 : pp b WTO WTO WTO, 22 5 pp , KIET, WTO : WTO KIEP 1995 GATT/WTO, 94, pp WTO WTO? -, 39, pp WTO

99 1997, WTO : WTO , pp GATT/WTO, 1010: pp [ ] 2000 WTO, 1 pp (TFP) CGE 2000, Vol 9 No [ ]

100 pp WTO 1997 No4, pp , No12 pp [ ] Bach, C, W Martin, and J A Stevens 1996 "China and the WTO: Tariff Offers, Exemptions, and Welfare Implications" Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol 132, No 3, pp Economist, The 1996 "World Trade: All free traders now?" (December 7) 2000 A Survey of China: Now Comes the Hard Part (April 8) Ezaki, M and L Sun 1999 "Growth Accounting of China for National, Regional, and Provincial Economies: " Asian Economic Journal, Vol 13, No1, pp Ezaki, M and S Ito 1995 "The Flying-Geese Pattern of Development in East Asia: A General Equilibrium Approach" Discussion Paper No 31 Graduate School of International Development Nagoya University Fan, M and Y Zheng 2000 China s Trade Liberalization for WTO Accession and Its Effects on China A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Mimeo Peking: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Feng, L and Y Huang 1997 "China's Trade Liberalization and Structural Adjustments for the World Economy" Asian Economic Journal, Vol 11, No3, pp Feng, L and Y Huang 1997 "China's Trade Liberalization and Structural Adjustments for the World Economy," Asian Economic Journal, Vol 11, No 3, pp Financial Times 1998 China hopes devaluation stance will boost application for WTO" (March 10) Garbaccio, R F 1995 US-China Trade Relations: Paper presented for the 4 th International Symposium on Societies and Economy in East Asia Osaka Japan (October 2-3) 99

101 Geest, W V D 1998 "Bring China into the Concert of Nations" Journal of World Trade, Vol 32, No 3, Harris, S 1997 "The WTO and APEC: What role for China?" Australian National University AJRC Working Paper No 274 He, L 2000 Impacts of Globalization to China: An Assessment with regard to China s Reforms and Liberalization Paper presented at the 26 th Pacific Trade and Development Conference (PAFTAD 26) June Seoul, Korea Hockman, B M and M M Kostecki 1995 The Political Economy of the World Trading System: From GATT to WTO WTO Ianchovichina, E I and R A McDougall 2000 Structure of Dynamic GTAP, GTAP Technical Paper Center for Global Trade Analysis Purdue University W Lafayette, US Lardy, N 1996 "China and the WTO" Brookings Policy Breifing No 10 Washington DC: Brookings Institute Lejour, A 2000 "China and the WTO: the impact on China and the world economy" Presented at the Third Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Melbourne Australia (June 27-30) Li, Kai, etc 1997a Trade Protection of the Automobile Industry and Its Impact Research News & Report(Special Issue), no2, APEC Policy Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(June) 1997b Trade Protection in China and the Impact of Liberalization to Chinese Economy Research News & Report (Special Issue), no3, APEC Policy Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(June) 1997c Effects of Market Protection and Liberalization of the Textile Industry Research News & Report (Special Issue), no4, APEC Policy Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(June ) Li, S and F Zhai 2000 The Impact of Accession to WTO on China s Economy Development Research Center, China Maddison, A 1998 Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run Development Center Studies OECD 100

102 Martin, W 1993 "Modeling the Post-Reform Chinese Economy" Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol15, pp McDougall, R A, A Elbehri, and T P Troung (ed) 1998 Global Trade, Assistance and Protection: The GTAP 4 Data Base Center for Global Trade Analysis Purdue University W Lafayette US People's Republic of China 1998 "IAP (Individual Action Plan on Trade & Investment Liberalization and Facilitation)" APEC Home Page Shengming, Y 1997 "The WTO and China's Trade Strategies in the 1990s a Role for China?" Australian National University AJRC Working Paper No 271 Supachai, P 2001 China s WTO Entry: Key to the New World Trade Order? The 2 nd Urata, S 1994 "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth in Asia: Introduction and Major Findings" The Developing Economies, XXXII-4, pp USITC 1999 Assessment of the Economic Effects on the US of China's Accession to the WTO Investigation No Washington D C: USITC Walmsley, T L and T W Hertel 2000 China s Accession to the WTO: timing is Everything Mimeo Center for Global Trade Analysis Purdue University Wang, Z 1997 China and Taiwan Access to the World Trade Organization: Implications for US Agricultural and Trade Agricultural Trade, Vol 17, pp Wang, Z and Z Fan 1998 "Tariff Reduction, Tax Replacement, and Implications for Income Distribution in China" Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol26, pp Wei, Z 1998 China's WTO Accession: Commitments and Prospects" Journal of World Trade, Vol 32, No 3, pp Werner International Management Consultants 1999 Hourly Labor costs in the Apparel Industry, 1998 New York World Bank 1997 Old Age Security: Pension Reform in China A World Bank Country Study Washington D C: The World Bank WTO 1999 The Legal Text: the result of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations Cambridge University Press, p12 Yang, Y 1995 Policy Options for China in the Uruguay Round Trade Liberalization In China and East Asia Trade Policy Volume : China and the World Trading System Pacific Economic Papers 250 (December)

103 Yang, Y 1996 "China's WTO membership: What's at stake?" The World Economy, Vol 19, No 6, pp Zhang, X and P Warr 1995 "China's Entry to GATT: A general Equilibrium Analysis of Tariff Reduction" In China and Asia Trade Policy Volume : China and the World Trading System Pacific Economic Papers 250 (December): Zhai, Fan and L Shantong 2000 "The Implications of Accession to WTO on China's Economy" Presented at the Third Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Melbourne Australia (June 27-30) Zhang, Y and L K Chenjing 1998 "Trade Impediments and Impact of Liberalization in China" Impediments to Trade in APEC: The Case of China, Indonesia and the Philippines APEC Study Center Institute of Developing Economies Tokyo pp

104 ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) (199593) (199511) (199511) (199539) (199511) ( ) ( ) (( ) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199591) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) ( ) (199511) (199663) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199571) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) ( ) (199511) (200098) ( ) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199557) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199539) (199511) ( ) ( ) ( ) (199535) ( ) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) (199711) ( ) (199511) ( ) ( ) 103

105 (199511) (199511) ( ) ( ) ( ) (199531) (199796) (199511) (199511) (199669) (199511) (199511) (199571) (199511) ( ) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) (199511) : : wwwwtoorg 104

106 < 2> (25% ) 105

107 106

108 : WTO 107

109 Ianchovichina, E I and R A McDougall(2000), Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP 108

110 109

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116 Summary Economic Effects of China s WTO Accession and Policy Implications for Korea Inkyo Cheong This study aims to estimate the economic impact of China s accession to the WTO and to find policy implications for the facilitation of trade and investment between Korea and China There are many previous studies on the economic impact of China s membership in the WTO, but most of these estimate the economic impact of the expansion of market access to China, under imaginary scenarios of tariff reduction In contrast, this study analyzes the concession of tariff reduction by item agreed upon in a protocol between China and the US, using the practical liberalization schedule for the estimation of the impact It also makes a qualitative estimate of the impact of the tariff reduction on Korea s major exporting items to China and the improvement of its trade rules closely related to market access, on trade between them According to the results, the following changes will greatly contribute to the improvement of trade between Korea and China: the relaxation of import licensing and quota system; the improvement of state trading rights; and the opening of the government procurement market Especially, the relaxation of import licensing, applied to 25% of total imports to China in 1999, will play the most important role in expediting trade with China Finally, tariff reduction and the improvement of China s trade system will greatly contribute to the expansion of trade between two countries In order to estimate impacts of the expansion of market access to China on the world economy, this study uses a multi sector and multi region CGE model To begin with, the comparative static analysis shows that tariff reduction, following China s accession to the WTO, will improve the welfare and GDP of countries all over the world as well as of China Above all, it is expected that China, whose efficiency in resource allocation is considerably improved from reductions in trade barriers, will enjoy the highest benefits, followed by Japan and Korea In addition, China s international competitiveness will improve with the improved efficiency of its resource allocation According to the results, the improvement of China s international 115

117 competitiveness will lead to the expansion of its exports ($123 billion), which will exceed the increase in its imports ($117 billion) Accordingly, $600 million in improvements is expected in China s trade balance against the world On the other hand, a considerable portion of its increase in trade is expected to come from trade with Japan and Korea, which were estimated in the analysis to account for 228% and 376% respectively of total increases in China s exports and imports In the short-term, the trade balances of Korea and Japan seem to improve However, if export competition in the world market intensifies, following the improvement of China s international competitiveness, it may have a negative impact on the trade balances of the two countries On the other hand, during the implementation period of its WTO concession, China may suffer some of the social pains of structural adjustment Namely, a shrink in production activity is expected in the industries that so far have been protected by tariff and non-tariff barriers, especially in the automobile and auto parts industries, one of the weakest industries in China Only the apparel industry, in which China has high international competitiveness, seems able to absorb a large number of workers released from weak industries While the static analysis has the advantage of comparing the economic impact of policy changes, it has the disadvantage of being unable to analyze the process of structural adjustment after it Especially, since the implementation of tariff reduction is scheduled to be completed by 2008, it seems to be appropriate to reflect the gradual tariff reduction into the model and analyze its impacts Therefore, this study analyzed its dynamic impacts, by internalizing an investment decision system into the existing static model and establishing a new dynamic model The application of the model shows that in several aspects, the result from the analysis is similar to that of the static analysis For example, the exports and GDP of China were also estimated to increase in the dynamic analysis, which results largely from the increase in inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to China, the result appears only in the dynamic analysis In other words, the productivity of production resources will improve for the increase in inflows of the FDI to China, eventually raising its exports and GDP On the other hand, the result shows that most macroeconomic indicators will be improved for 10 years after its membership in the WTO, but thereafter, the rate of improvement tends to lag more or less However, if the facilitation of competition and the increasing returns to scale, through the improvement of its trade system, are reflected, these economic indicators could continue to improve even beyond 116

118 ten years As in the static analysis, Korea and Japan seem to benefit more than any other country The results from the fact that these three countries are economically and geographically close and have strong complementary relations in trade structure In contrast, Southeast Asian countries, with strong competitive relations with China in trade structure, are expected to suffer losses It also provides implications for Korea that unless an effort is made to strengthen its international competitiveness, through reform and technological innovation, Korea s existing overseas market could collapse in the long-run, with the rise of China Furthermore, in the dynamic analysis, the GDP and welfare of Southeast Asian countries is estimated to record minus growth, stemming from the transfer of FDI from Southeast to Northeast Asia, due to the increase in the expected rate of return on investment of foreign investors, favorable to China The economic growth of China, following its accession to the WTO, may bring about side effects, which include the following: the worsening of pollution across borders in Northeast Asia, due to the expansion of the manufacturing industry in China; the possibility of dumping exports of Chinese agricultural products to the world market; and the intensification of competition among exporters in the third world market China s accession to the WTO implies that policies must be established to minimize side effects and maximize positive effects as discussed above To begin with, China should implement the agreement for its WTO accession thoroughly, which will bring to the country substantial economic benefits by increasing the inflows of FDI through tariff reduction and the improvement of its economic system In addition, the country should introduce policies for minimizing social conflicts generated from structural adjustment in the process of market opening Next, for Korean enterprises, it implies the need for their strategic entry to the Chinese market in response to China s strengthened international competitiveness Mainly, it includes entry to the Chinese market based on competitiveness, the expansion of entry to the service market, the management of brands and the strengthening of marketing for domestic demand, and the diversification of investment schemes, eg, joint investment with Chinese companies Finally, for the Korean government, it implies the need for overcoming conflicts with China, which could be caused by the increased trade and 117

119 investment It should be focused on the preparation for a logical response against the request of the Chinese government for the correction of trade imbalances between Korea and China and against the sudden increase in the import of cheaply priced Chinese goods to the Korean market (1985) Michigan State University (1995), (, ikcheong@kiepgokr) :, (, 1999) -, (, 2000) FTA?(2001) 118