3 Keith Wade Azad Zangana Craig Botham %, y/y z-score Recession G7 Indu

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2 3 Keith Wade Azad Zangana Craig Botham %, y/y z-score Recession G7 Industrial production Global activity indicator, rhs Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders Economics Group, 25 October

3 z-score Recession US (ISM) Europe (BNB) Japan (Shoko Chukin) 3

4 y/y, % Real private non-residential investment Durable goods orders Average contribution of total private investment to GDP, % 1.4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q present Q Q Number of quarters from trough to peak 4

5 ECI wage growth, y/y % Unemployment rate, % Q Q Q Q Q unemployment 1 5

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7 Involuntary part-time employment share (% point difference relative to 2007) Median 7

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9 Individual poll and 5-poll moving averages Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Socialist Democrats (SPÖ ) People's Party (Ö VP) Freedom Party (FPÖ ) 9

10 Extremadura Melilla Andalucía Castilla - La Mancha Murcia region Ceuta Canarias Asturias Valenciana Galicia Cantabria Castilla and León Rioja Balears, Islands Aragón Catalolnia Navarra País Vasco Madrid % of national 0k 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k 35k 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Population Nominal GDP GDP per capita Ceuta + Melilla Extremadura Asturias Castilla & León Canarias Castilla - La Mancha Galicia Andalucía Cantabria País Vasco Aragón Rioja Murcia Region Navarra Comunitat Valenciana Catalonia Balears Islands Madrid -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% - 30bn - 20bn - 10bn 0bn 10bn 20bn Budget contribution, bot % of GDP, top 10

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15 2 Dornbusch, R., Park, Y., and Claessens, S., Contagion: How it spreads and how it can be stopped? World Bank Research Observer, vol. 15, no. 2 (August 2000), pp

16 12% 8% 2% 8% Brazil China India Indonesia 6% 3% 3% 2% 15% 2% 9% 30% Korea Mexico S Africa Thailand Malaysia Russia Taiwan Other 16

17 EM equities, average pairwise correlation coefficient In crisis periods* Non-crisis Pre-GFC ( ) Post-GFC ( ) EM equities, average pairwise correlation coefficient BRL CLP MYR THB ZAR IDR KRW MXN INR PHP CZK RUB CNY TWD PLN Non-crisis Crisis 17

18 EM exports as share of total, by destination 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% China Asia ex China LatAm EM Europe Other Intra EM 18

19 Share of EM ex China GDP Share of Chinese GDP 20% 70% 18% 60% 16% 14% 50% 12% 40% 10% 8% 30% 6% 20% 4% 2% 10% 0% 0% Liabilities to EM ex China Claims on EM ex China Liabilities to China Claims on China 3 Forbes, K., Rigobon, R., Measuring Contagion: Conceptual and Empirical Issues International Financial Contagion, ed. by Claessens, S., and Forbes, K.,

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23 Contributions to World GDP growth (y/y), % Forecast US Europe Japan Rest of advanced BRICS Rest of emerging World 23

24 Real GDP y/y% Wt (%) Prev. Consensus 2018 Prev. Consensus World (3.0) (3.0) 3.1 Advanced* (1.9) (2.0) 2.1 US (2.0) (2.2) 2.4 Eurozone (1.8) (1.8) 1.8 Germany (1.8) (1.9) 1.9 UK (1.6) (1.6) 1.4 Japan (1.6) (1.3) 1.2 Total Emerging** (4.7) (4.7) 4.9 BRICs (5.5) (5.5) 5.8 China (6.6) (6.2) 6.4 Inflation CPI y/y% Wt (%) Prev. Consensus 2018 Prev. Consensus World (2.4) (2.3) 2.2 Advanced* (1.8) (1.4) 1.6 US (2.0) (1.9) 2.0 Eurozone (1.6) (1.1) 1.3 Germany (1.9) (1.3) 1.6 UK (2.8) (2.2) 2.6 Japan (0.7) (1.1) 0.7 Total Emerging** (3.5) (3.8) 3.2 BRICs (2.7) (3.1) 2.7 China (2.0) (2.3) 1.9 Interest rates % (Month of Dec) Current Prev. Market 2018 Prev. Market US (1.25) (2.00) 1.94 UK (0.25) (0.25) 0.88 Eurozone (Refi) (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) Eurozone (Depo) (-0.40) (-0.40) Japan (-0.10) (-0.10) 0.08 China (4.35) (3.50) - Other monetary policy (Over year or by Dec) Current Prev Prev. US QE ($Bn) (4450) 4013 (4050) EZ QE ( Bn) (2236) 2546 (2566) UK QE ( Bn) (444) 445 (445) JP QE ( Tn) (553) 645 (653) China RRR (%) Key variables FX (Month of Dec) Current Prev. Y/Y(%) 2018 Prev. Y/Y(%) USD/GBP (1.32) (1.30) -3.0 USD/EUR (1.15) (1.12) -3.4 JPY/USD (108) (110) 1.8 GBP/EUR (0.87) (0.86) -0.3 RMB/USD (7.05) (7.40) 2.2 Commodities (over year) Brent Crude (52.1) (51.8) 1.7 Source: Schroders, Thomson Datastream, Consensus Economics, October 2017 Consensus inflation numbers for Emerging Markets is for end of period, and is not directly comparable. Market data as at 27/10/2017 Previous forecast refers to May 2017, except for BoE forecast, which was updated in September, and Fed, updated in October. * Advanced markets: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Euro area, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States. ** Emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Russia, Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania. 24

25 % 7 % EM Asia 6 5 EM Asia EM 4 EM 4 Pac ex Jap 3 2 US Eurozone 1 Japan UK 0 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Pac ex Jap US Eurozone UK Japan % 4 % Pac ex Jap EM Asia EM UK US Eurozone Japan EM UK EM Asia Pac ex Jap US Eurozone Japan 0 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors. The views and opinions contained herein are those of Schroder Investments Management s Economics team, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or any solicitation of any offer to buy securities or any other instrument described in this document. The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored. 25

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Defend www.schroderstalkingpoint.com 에서다운로드할수있습니다. 슈로더준법감시인승인 (-9) 슈로더글로벌경제및투자전략 Keith Wade Chief Economist and Strategist Azad Zangana Senior European Economist and Strategist Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist