Microsoft PowerPoint H Outlook_201909_동성코퍼레이션.pptx [읽기 전용]

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2 (% YoY) 1 저점시차발생구간글로벌경기선행지수전년비상승률 (L) 글로별경기선행지수순환변동치 (R) (%)

3 : (USD bn) 억달러에 25% 신규적용 미국의중국산수입관세인상누적규모 2, 억달러에 1% 신규적용 2, 억달러에 25% 로상향 2,5 억달러에 3% 로상향 1.9 배 3, 억달러에 15% 신규적용 (9 월, 12 월분할 ) 3.7 배 3, 억달러에 3% 로상향 ( 두차례분할예상 ) 5.1 배 Fed 기준금리 (%)

4 : (% YoY) Core CPI Core PPI 2%

5 Answer to the question of relocating plan due to US-China conflict? How impacting your business strategy? Latin America Europe May 218.Sep 중국내에서중국내수공략강화 (%) 35.3 East Asia 투자결정보류또는취소 33.2 US Greater India 중국밖으로생산공장일부또는전부이전 19.7 Southeast Asia 투자확대 2.9 No plans to relocate manufacturing facilities (%) 중국시장에서완전철수

6 , (%) 중국최종수요에서내수비중 중국최종수요에서미국향수출비중

7 USD-CNY (% YoY) 중국수출증가율 미중관세인상잠정중단합의 5 4 위안화환산수출액 미국달러표시수출액 차관세인상 4 차관세인상 5 차관세인상 , 2 차관세인상

9 (% MoM) 미국소매판매 : 자동차및주유소판매제외 (% YoY) 8 7 (%) (%) 8 NAHB 주택시장지수 (L) 8 산업생산설비가동률 (R)

10 (%) Euro area PMI Euro area retail sales excl. food & fuel 62 Composite 8 전월비 % 전년비 % 6 Manufacturing Service

11 219 GDP 2% %. 2%.,.,. 25bp ( %). GDP 3% 2% 1% Korea GDP (%) 7 6 % QoQ SAAR % YoY 5 BOK base rate Core CPI inflation ` Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

12 2-1%., -2%, -17%,., -5% Export growth (% YoY) Export growth (% YoY) 1 Total 4 Total 8 China bound Semiconductor China bound semiconductor 3 excluding China bound export excluding Semiconductor Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

13 % 2.,. (%) Capacity utilization ratio(%, L) Inventory-shipment ratio(reverse, R) (%) Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

14 72% 1. 1.,.. (% YoY) (%) Capacity (% YoY) Manufacturing capacity utilization ratio (RHS) Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

15 .,,., (% YoY, 3M ma) 2 15 Retail sales total Retail sales: durable goods Retail sales: semi-durable goods Retail sales: non durable goods Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

16 ... The lagging indicator s reversal (% YoY, 6M ma) (% YoY, 6M ma) Export, custom basis (L) Facility investment (L) Empolyment (R) Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

17 ( ) 4~49., 6.,. 4~49, 6 (8 ) (', YoY) Male Employment (', YoY) Female Employment ~29 3~39 4~49 5~59 6 and over ~29 3~39 4~49 5~59 6 and over Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

18 ., 15%,.,. 22,. +15%, %, (% YoY) Government revenue(ex. social security fund revenue) Government expenditure(ex. social security fund expenditure) (KRW, tn) Managed fiscal balance(12m moving sum) Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

19 GDP 9%. 6%. LTV 2% ( 8% ). Household deb to GDP ratio (%) Household financial debt(krw tn) ,2 1, Other loan Housing loan from non-deposit financial institution Housing loan from deposit financial institution India Saudi Arabia Russia Indonesia Turkey Brazil Italy China Germany France Japan Euro area Spain Malaysia US Sweden UK Korea Norway Netherlands Australia % Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center Source: Bank of Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center

20 6. -., 25%. 4%. (KRW mn) Households B/S by income bracket Assets Liabilities Bracket 1 Bracket 2 Bracket 3 Bracket 4 Bracket Debt service burden by income bracket (% of disposable income) Bracket 1 Bracket 2 Bracket 3 Bracket 4 Bracket 5 Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center

21 , 3 25 (% YoY) House purchase price House rent(jeonse) price (% YoY) GDP growth rate

22 11 MSCI 신흥국통화지수대비원화상대지수 (pt, = 1) 13 JPY-KRW ,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 USD-KRW + 1σ Ave. (pt, 21yr=1) Korea Won, real effective value + 1σ Ave. 1, -1σ 1-1σ

23 (USD bn) 메모리반도체가격 (USD) Trade Balance _ Semiconductor Trade Balance _ Total ex. semiconductor 9 8 DRAM: DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 2133/24MHz (L) NAND: TLC Flash 128Gb (R)

25 4.. (Million barrels per day) Oil demand - supply(lhs) Oil supply(rhs) Oil demand(rhs) (Million barrels per day) 초과수요초과공급초과수요초과공급 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

26 미국전략비축유주간증감 ( 백만배럴 ) (L) WTI(USD/bbl) (R) 3.2 OECD 원유재고 ( 십억배럴 )

28 Fed 금리타겟 미국채장단기금리차 (1 년 - 2 년, %p) 미국채장단기금리차 (3 년 - 2 년, %p) S&P5 index log scale (L) 미국경기동행지수 log scale (R)

29 (pt, 21yr = 1) 3 25 미국경제리세션구간 S&P5 MSCI DM Europe Emerging Markets

30 미국 IT 하드웨어, 소프트웨어, 지적재산권투자 (% of GDP) 지적재산권투자 지적재산권 _ 소프트웨어투자 IT 하드웨어투자 4.% 2.9% 1.5% 4.7% 1.9%

31 (% YoY) 영업이익증가율 ( 십억원 ) 자동차 3 사 2 사분기영업이익 1 8 대형주 대형주 _ 반도체제외 중소형주 % 실제 시장컨센서스 % +13% P 199F 1912F 기아차현대차현대모비스

32 (%) 3.5 미국채 1 년금리 미국 219 년소비자물가상승률예상치 6 미국채 1 년금리 - 미국 CPI(% YoY) 미국 22 년소비자물가상승률예상치 σ Ave -1σ

33 (%) 한국국채 1 년금리 - 한국 CPI(% YoY) 한국국채 1 년금리 한국 219 년소비자물가상승률예상치 한국 22 년소비자물가상승률예상치 σ Ave -1σ

34 (%) (USD/t oz) 1.4 미국 TIPS 1 년금리 (L) 금값선물 ( 최근월물 ) (R)

Microsoft Word - Week Ahead_Economy.docx

Microsoft Word - Week Ahead_Economy.docx ..... 이탈리아국채 년금리 한국취업자수전년비증감 ( 천명 )..8 8. 8.7 8.9 8. 7. 7. 7.9 8. 8. 8.9 8. 8. 8.7 8..7........9 미국 9 년예상 GDP 성장률컨센서스 (% YoY).... -. 7 8 (% YoY) PPI 8 CPI Core CPI - - -8 7 8..... CPI Core CPI Core PPI.