2000 11
,, LG
i < > 1023 44 40 1999 2,497 ( 479 ) 600900, 500600, 50% (4 ) 146% 4 10%, 25%
4 05% ( 10 ) 86,646, 122,489, 50% ILO 25%, 1 : 2 : 2001 3 : 2001 40 2010 (GDP )34% 320012003 ii
GDP,,, ( 98 4/4 2/4 84% 23%p ) (%) 56 55 50 50 10%p 46 45 40 41 35 30 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010, iii
,,,,, iv
90,,, IT,, 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 1 2 5 1 2 3, 4 5 v
vi,,, 20 10 (trade-off)
< > < > / 1 1 /1 2 /2 /6 1 /6 2 /11 3 /13 4 /16 5 /19 /22 1 /22 2 /27 /30 1 /30 2 /33 3 /37 4 /40 /42 1 /42 2 /45 3 /47 < >/48
< > < -1> /2 < -2> /3 < -3> /4 < -4> /4 < -5> 40 /5 < -1> /7 < -2> /8 < -3> /9 < -4> /14 < -5> 50% 25% /15 < -6> /19 < -1> /41 < -1> /11 < -2> /16 < -3> 2010 /17 < -4> /18 < -5> /20 < -1> /24 < -2> /28 < -1> /31 < -2> /32 < -3> /33 < -4> /35 < -5> /37 < -6> /38
1 1 40 1023 44 40 5 40 40,,, 40 97IMF 5
< > 1, (5 )8 4 44 (5 8 4 44 ), 42 (5 8 4 42 ), 40 5 12 (5 8 40 ) 2 OECD <I-1> ( : ) 2,497 ('99) 1,957 ('98) 1,842 ('99) 1,737 ('98) : 1 OECD Employment Outlook '99 ( ) 2 (2000 4) 3 (2000 6) 4 (2000 6) 1,580 ('98) 99 ( ) 2,497 ( 479 ) 600900, 500600 1,634 ('97) 2,285 ('99) 2,445 ('99) 2
50200 < > (, ), 44 OECD, <I-2> 1 44 1 40 1 1 1 135 40 8 40 2 84 1 44 : 2000 616 284, 2001 11 3
, 18 119%(99 ) <I-3> 352 (145%) 250 (125%) 179 (90%) 187 (97%) 68 (45%) : 1 ( ) 2 '96, '97 :,, '995 196 (88%), 1 2 2030, 3040 50 <I-4> 52 18 12 1020 104 10 - ( 4) 104 15-1020 104 8 - (2025) 104 12-24 104 11-30 52 22-730 92102 142 129139 132137 140 145 81104 788 ('98) 126 ('95) 132 ('97) : (51) :,, 1999,,, 1999 136 ('96) 144 ('96) 139 ('92) 4
1 40 90 40, 1 (GDP)1 1 1 2 1,,, 2,,, 20001 GDP1 ( ) <I-5> 40 ( :, US$) 40 1 (GDP) 2 1 1988( 1987) 1994 1996 1997 1936(1946 ) 1994 1997 1997 23,813 24,400 24,407 20,207 12,984 12,232 10,569 11,442 1938 1997 6,429(96 ) 738 : 1 GNP ( 20006 9 ) 1988, 1997 1 GDP 33,314 :,,, 2000,, 1998 5
6, 1,,
(199599 ) 50% (4 ) 146% ( ) 4 10%, 25% 4 05% -98% < -1 > ( : %) 50% 25% A B A B -82 42-98 05 10 146-08 105 : A (4 ) B (4 ) 9599 (9599 ) 471, 5,454 (44 5,454 ) 40 5,999 (545 ) 12 7
<II-3 > ( 10 ) 86,646, 122,489 141 <II-2> 50% : 50% : 50100% : 25% : 35% : 25% 8 : 25% 8 : 50% :,,, 1998 11 2 : 1/3 : 50% 2-4 : 2/3 :100% : 100%,,,, ( / ) 130,,,, 150 ( / ), (,,, ) 8
<II-3> () ( ) 1 (B/A) (A, /) ( /) ( ) (B, /) 5454 5,093 86,646 24,050 509 122,489 141 6176 21 403 30,460 2 637 158 4826 2,342 35,261 21,298 234 49,871 141 6581 45 930 35,023 5 1,587 171 6556 286 5,857 28,184 29 8,070 138 5522 432 7,444 21,910 43 9,466 127 4631 78 1,122 18,633 8 1,447 129 5004 517 8,072 23,828 52 12,320 153 7274 371 8,425 36,480 37 13,541 161 5541 507 8,774 21,019 51 10,667 122 8063 182 4,576 28,095 18 5,111 112 5604 190 3,324 20,073 19 3,815 115 6618 119 2,462 32,835 12 3,916 159 : 10 9599 1 (9598 ) 1 ( ) ( + + + + + ) (A) = 1 1 = ( 15 4 52 ) (B) = 1 = (4 ) 40 :,,, 9
10, < >,,,
2 (a) (GLS) 1%p 065%p 1) (%) < II-1> 15 10 5 0-5 -10 75 80 85 90 95 2000 1) (a) PRD t = 4 54 071WH + 006WH + 037Dummy + ε * t t t (463) ( 537) * 1 89 2000 (047) (026) 2 R = 0543, DW = 1938 : 1972 1/42000 2/4 PRD :, WH :, Dummy : (89 48 44 ) : ( )t-value, *5% significant 11
, 44 40 91% 59%p(91% 065%), 1 0989 58%p,,,,,,, 12
,, 3, Job Sharing = ( ) ) : 300, : 44 40 : 13,200 (= 300 44 ) : 12,000 (= 300 40 ) : 1,200 : 30(1,20040 ) 13
<II-4> OECD('94) OECD('98) ILO 39, 20 : Financial Times, '971216 : OECD Employment Outlook, 1998 : European Industrial Relations Review, '973 1% 1% 0406% :,,, 2000 5 50% 25%, / 141 170 14
<II-5> 50% 25% 50% 25% (A, /) (B, /) (B/A) (C, /) (B, /) (B/C) 86,646 122,489 141 72,205 122,489 170 403 637 158 336 637 190 35,261 49,871 141 29,384 49,871 170 930 1,587 171 775 1,587 205 5,857 8,070 138 4881 8,070 165 7,444 9,466 127 6,203 9,466 153 1,122 1,447 129 935 1,447 155 8,072 12,320 153 6,727 12,320 183 8,425 13,541 161 7,020 13,541 193 8,774 10,667 122 7,311 10,667 146 4,576 5,111 112 3,814 5,111 134 3,324 3,815 115 2,770 3,815 138 2,462 3,916 159 2,052 3,916 191 : 10 9599 1 (9598 ) 1 ( ) ( + + + + + + ) (A, C) = 1 1 = ( 15 or 125 4 52 ) (B) = 1 = (4 ) 40 :,,, ( ) 15
,, 2) < II-2> (, %) (, %) 10 8 8 6 4 2 6 4 2 0-2 -4 0-6 75 80 85 90 95 2000 4 40 2) 16 UR = 350 + 002WH 002WH 002WH 001WH + ε t * t t 1 t 2 t 3 t (492) (087) ( 108) ( 116) (054) R= 086, DW = 131 : 1972 1/42000 2/4 UR :, WH : : ( )t-value, *5% Significant
(= ) GDP OECD GDP 2010 3 1 : 2 : 2001 3 : 2001 40, 2010 (GDP ) 34% < II-3> 2010 ( ) 730 720 710 700 690 680-32% -44% 670 1 2 : 95 (GDP) 3 232%, 3 44% 1 23 17
1015%p 4% GDP 3 20012003, 2010, ILO (, 116, 1962) < II-4> 60 56 55 50 50 10%p 46 45 40 41 35 30 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 : 2001,,, ARIMA, OECD GDP, 18
Gordon(1984), 984/4 20002/4 84% 23%p( 28%) <II-6> GDP 70 88 00 53 01 05 35-06 0% 60% 1% 5% 39% -6% 80 76-02 42 01 01 24 10-3% 55% 2% 1% 32% 13% 90-973 74-06 54 00 06 18 02-9% 73% 0% 8% 24% 3% 974-983 -43-12 18-32 -21 15-11 28% -42% 75% 48% -35% 26% 984-20002 84 23 44 06-02 11 00 28% 54% 7% -3% 14% 0% : Gordon(1984) GDP= x x x x x 5, 19
( ) ILO, < II-5> ( ) ( ) 38 485 36 34 32 30 480 475 470 465 460 28 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 : 1 :, '99, 2000 8 455 1999 6 3,711 20
21,,,,, 21 652%, 95%
22 1, 05%( 25% )146%( ) ( ), (, )
23,, ( ),,,,
< III-1> (%) 30 25 ( ) 1950 1900 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 : 134, 35 5 1994 299% 24, ( ),,,,
25 1989 198% 1999 119%,
26, 40, < > 1 GDP1,,
27,,, 2 (Supply Shock),,, (), () IT
< III-2>,,,, Flexible Time,,, 28
< >,,,, A/S,, CRM,,,,,,, 29
,, 1 (frei) (Zeit) (freizeit) (rest) (recreation) ( ), ( ) (J Huizinga) Homo Ludens 30
, < > Politics " (ascholia) (schole),,, ", (school, schule) schole,,, 90, 1 IMF, <IV-1>,,, :, (1997), 147 31
TV TV TV, < IV-2> (170) 1 (123) (34) (8) (100) 2-4(312), (295) TV (412) 2-4(295), (114) (34) (32) (86) (25) (9) (86) (42) (62) (27) (413) (363) (437) (37) : % : (1999),,, N, 32
< IV-3> X,, N ( ),,,,, ( ),,,, ( ),,,,,, 3 2 1 : 33
34 5 20 23 2 :,, 5 12 23,, 3 :,,
/,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, < IV-4> 350 (187) 250 160 160 120 120 :, USA TODAY, May 13, 1999, 60 74 (15) (17) (197) / (588) : wwwsalarymancokr, ' ' 407, 2000918~24 4 :,,, B2C, 35
36 Indoor Outdoor, 5 : TV,,,, NGO
,,, < IV-5> (132) (74) (119) (34) (16) TV (18) : Investor's Business Daily, May 17, 1999 3 1 : SOHO(Small Office Home Office) 1,, 37
, -,, 2 :, < IV-6> 626 14 19 35 40 49 102 115, (, ) ( ) 3 : 38
39 4 :, IT e-lancer(electornic + freelancer) (S Parker),, 5 :
,, 1 4 1 : 80 48 44,,,, 2 : (weekend),,,,,, 40
,,,,,,,,, 3 :,,,,,, (ex: = Education + Entertainment) 4 :, <IV-1> : : + :, 20005 : : 41
5 :,,,, A/S,, CRM,, Solution,,,,,, 1 42
43, 10 40, 40,, 40
< 40 > 1970 5 19884 40 Flex Time (1987 ) 1994440, 199741 40 40, ( )40 1990 40, 1999 38 40 1990 1997 40 1988 1999 1 40 5 20 40 10,, 44
45,,, 2 Win-Win trade-off
46,,,,, - -
47, 3 trade-off,,,
< >,,,,, 1999,, 2000,, 2000,,,,,,, 2000 J,, 1999,, LG 2000 118, No 596,,,,, 1990,,, 21, 1999,,, 1997,, 1999 Claude Giorno, Pete Richardson, Deborah Roseveare and Paul van den Noord, Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, OECD Economic Studies No 24, 1995 Gordon, Robert J, Unemployment and Potential Output in the 1980s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1984, The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy, Jouranl of Economic Perspectives, Vol 11, No 1, winter 1997 OECD, OECD Employment Outlook, Parker, S,Leisure and Work, London: Goerge Allen & Unwin 1983,,,, 1987,,,, 1997,,, 1993,, 48
, - " 90,,,, 1999 49