서울지하철 4호선 연장사업_최종출판본(완).hwp

2010 년도예비타당성조사보고서 서울지하철 4 호선연장사업 2010. 5 공공투자관리센터 한국개발연구원

요약

제 Ⅰ 장예비타당성조사추진개요 제 1 절사업추진배경과필요성 - - 47-06. 12. 14 : (: 4 ) 07. 09. 15 : 07. 12. 04 : 08. 03. 25 : (4 ) () 08. 11. 05 :,, (, ) 09. 06. 25 : () 09. 11. 06 : 2009 () 09. 12. 22 :

() (60%), (40%) (): 60%() : : : 2007.3.15 9.15(6), : B/C=1.21-8 47 < 표 1> 주요사업내용 4 14.54 km 3(,, ) 10,990 2010~2018 186,630 2010 5 11 < 표 2> 변경내용 () () ~ ~ ~ 18.46 km 14.54 km () 201,630 186,630

제 Ⅱ 장기초자료분석및조사의쟁점 제 1 절기초자료분석 0.10%, 0.33%, 4.40% 2001, 2000 1.84%, 1.41%, 6.05%, 2001 2000 2.39%, 2.35%, 2003 2007 7.18%,

2007, 2002 6.9km 2006 3.7km, 2001 2007 4.9km, 2006 3.7km, 2001 2007 3.3km, 16.0km, 11.6km, 2006 4.8km 6.6km 1 () 4 (6, 43, 46, 47), 2 (86, 98) 1 (383) 5 (,,,, ) - IC~IC, IC~IC 30% -, 46, 47,,, 98( ~), 383, 47(~ ) - 6 43,,,, 86(~ ), 98(~), 43 (~) 6.18% - 98 ~ 5.96%, ~ 5.37%

4 6, 7,, - 15 2 17, (4, 7), (6, 7), (, 6 ) - 25.4km, 3.3km 29.8km, - 5, 6 11, 22.8km, 29.0km 51.8km, 179,578 2006 (~) 473,271 / 383,036/ 4 6, 7 838,964/ 1,218,822/, 524,990/ 593,170/, 1,102,474/ 1,172,651/ 7.76%, 2.47%, 1.24% 455,493/ 429,245/, 10,224/ 8,474/ 1.18%, 3.69% 1.19%, 5.72%, 6.07%, 7.31% 71.17%, 30.06% 0.51%, 83.99%

제 2 절상위및관련계획의검토 1. 관련상위계획. 4 (2006~2020) (2006~2011) (2007~2019) 21 (2004) (2006~2015) (2001~2020) 2. 주변택지개발계획 < 표 3> 과업노선주변의주요택지개발계획 3,4 647,578m 2 8,948(22,400) 2016, 670,599m 2 5,331(13,378) 2016, 600,542m 2 4,865(12,402) 2017,,,,,, 1,106,943 m 2 7,564(19,970) 2018 1,982m 2 13(27,010) 2015 5,092m 2 24,137 (72,411), 2,491m 2 16( 11) 1,506m 2 9 ( 6) 2011 2013 2013,, 2,073m 2 27,646(69,269) 2020

3. 주변도로및철도개발계획 < 표 4> 과업노선주변의주요도로및철도개발계획 ~ ~ (BRT) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~(:~ ~~~) ~(:~ ~~~~) 4.91km 2013 5 1,000 11.2km 2011 1,200 5.4km (:2.3km) 2010 4 12.3km 2017-85.6km (:25.3km) 108.2km (:20.5km) 2010 12 2010 12 ~~ 11.37km 2016 - - - - 제 3 절예비타당성조사의쟁점 4,,

- (R=250m) BOX. -,.. - 25m - - ~ -, - - () -,, -, -

40%, 60%, 75%., 60%, < 표 5> 철도시설별재원분담비율 60% 40% 75% 25% 7 (~) - 7 9.8km 1 2,456-7 60%, 40% -,,. 9.8km 0.5km, 6.8km, 2.5km -, < 6>. 3,463

< 표 6> 7 호선연장사업의재원분담비율 7,473.6 (60%) 249.1 3,462.8 1,270.5 4,982.4 (2%) (27.8%) (10.2%) (40.0%) (: ) 12,456.0 (100.0%) 8 () - 8 11.37km 7,988-75%,. 60% -, (, ). 4,,,,

요 약 11 제Ⅲ장 기술적 검토 및 사업비 추정 제1절 기술적 검토 노선 개요 본 사업은 아래 그림과 같이 서울 지하철4호선 연장노선으로서 서울시 노원 구, 남양주시 등 2개 도시를 경유 4호선 창동차량기지를 이전함과 동시에 남양주시가 중점적으로 추진하고 있 는 별내지구, 진접지구에 사업노선이 통과 [그림 1] 사업노선의 개요 건설기준의 검토 본 연구노선은 서울도시철도 4호선 연장노선이므로 설계기준은 도시철도인 지하철 4호선과 동일한 기준을 적용하는 것이 타당한 것으로 판단.

< 표 7> 선로설계기준 ( 도시철도 ) 14 1435 (S) S = S : () ( 25 ) R = (m) : 800 m : :, 5m : 250 m : 180 m 400 m 600 m 20 m 600 800m.(, BOX ) 450 2 20 m : : 1200 ( R1, R2 : ) : (C) () C = C: () ( 160) R : (m) V : (/hr) C': (0 40) : : : 600 : 600 ( : 450 ) C' = 0.

< 표계속 > : 20 m (W) W : () R : (m) : 35/1000 RC = () R : (m) : 10/1000 8/1000 : 3/1000 3/1000 : 45/1000 2/1000 5/1000 3,000 m 250 120 4,000 ( m±n ),,.. 3 2 1 4,300. 3 () :. : 4,000 + (b) 5cm. W : 2W. 3. (R). (R).,.

< 표 8> 정거장위치및역간거리 0km145-001 3km745 3,610m 002 11km900 8,150m 003 14km100 2,200m 4 < 표 9> 역사형태및역기능에의한정거장분류 002, 003 001 001, 002-003 < 표 10> 정거장규모검토 210m 26m 10 210m 23m 10 < 표 11> 차량기지계획 179,578 186,630 33, 11, 3 37, 13, 3

제 2 절비용산정의개요 (5)(2008) 2008, < 표 12> 연도별비용보정지수 (E/S율 ) Deflator 2000 100.0 2001 104.5 2002 109.6 2003 117.2 100.0 2004 125.5 107.1 2005 129.5 110.5 100.0 2006 133.4 113.8 103.0 100.0 2007 139.8 119.2 107.9 104.8 100.0 2008 155.7 132.8 120.2 116.7 111.4 (5) 2007 2008 Deflator (111.4%)

제 3 절총사업비산정 : 14.54km ( : 0.33km, : 14.21km) : 3( 2, 1) : (1.34km), (3.83 km), (8.43 km) : 1() ( ) A. 8,722.41 A-1. 5,543.31 km 1.26 94.7 119.46 km 0.07 132.6 9.68 A-1-1. km 3.83 289.6 1,107.87 (10m) km 1.35 584.9 786.62 NATM km 6.29 181.6 1,142.15 km 0.79 254.0 200.65 A-1-2. (22) 2 417.8 835.50 () 2 1 483.5 483.48 A-1-3. 9 72.4 651.69 A-1-4. km 0.6 94.7 56.81 () km 0.9 166.0 149.39 A-2. 346.78 A-2-1. km 14.21 22.7 322.92 A-2-2. km 2.10 11.4 23.86 A-3. 179.84 A-3-1. 2 47.9 95.80 2 1 84.0 84.04 A-4 1,011.48 km 15.26 15.6 237.99 A-4-1. km 15.26 2.0 30.60 km 15.26 7.6 115.60 km 15.26 14.5 221.00 A-4-2. km 15.26 9.1 139.40 A-4-3. km 15.26 17.5 266.89 A-5 1641.00 A-5-1. 1,458.23 A-5-2. 182.77 (5) 1% ( 2008-109)

< 표 13> 부대비산정결과 (: ) 115.14 1.31% 232.02 2.65% 192.77 2.21% 87.22 1% SE 2.02 5% 72.21 70.14 771.51 Station < 표 14> 용지보상비집계표 Station (/) () () () () () (: ) 0km400 0km600 1,140 1,800 20.5 2.1 28.7 :150 600 6.8 5.1 :50 0km600 3km600 1,510 4,320 65.2 6.5 130.5 :360 35,040 529.1 185.2 :2430 3km600 4km290 526 8,280 43.6 4.4 61.0 :690 4km290 5km800 3 5,160 0.2 0.3 :430 12,960 0.4 0.1 :1080 5km800 6km300 526 6,000 31.6 3.2 44.2 :500 6km300 9km000 3 9,360 0.3 0.6 :780 23,040 0.7 0.3 :1920 9km000 10km600 222 19,200 42.6 4.3 63.9 :1600 10km600 11km700 28 4,200 1.2 0.1 2.4 :350 9,000 2.5 0.9 :750 11km700 12km200 1,150 9,360 107.6 10.8 150.7 :500 12km200 13km100 235 10,800 25.4 2.5 38.1 :900 13km100 13km500 47 2,100 1.0 0.1 2.0 :175 2,700 1.3 0.4 :225 13km500 14km500 142 15,360 21.8 2.2 32.7 :1000 14km500 14km536 10 432 0.0 0.0 0.1 :36 330 14,400 47.5 4.8 66.5 :1200 8 186,630 14.6 1.5 29.1 380,742 42.3 650.8 192.0 : (2008).

(5) (++) 10% < 표 15> 예비비산정결과 (: ) 8,722.41 771.51 885.11 10,379.03 (10%) 1,038 :. 1 (), ( ), () 3 4 05:0024:00 19 < 표 16> 영업시간대 07:00~09:00 2 4 17:00~19:00 2 06:00~07:00, 09:00~10:00, 14:00~17:00, 19:00~21:00 7 7 05:00~06:00, 10:00~12:00 3 8 12:00~14:00, 21:00~24:00 5 2031 1,607/

< 표 17> 최대재차인원 (: /) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 1,576 1,581 1,579 1,607 1,596 1,327 1,332 1,356 1,351 1,322 563 565 559 572 574 472 475 478 475 468 TPS < 표 18> TPS 결과 km km/ ~ 001 3.61 4.28 50.64 001 ~ 002 8.15 6.85 71.41 002 ~ 003 2.22 2.19 60.87 13.98 15.31 54.78 003 ~ 002 2.22 2.19 60.91 002 ~ 001 8.15 6.79 72.03 001 ~ 3.61 4.28 50.60 13.98 15.26 54.98 27.96 30.57 4.66 54.88 58.84. 10, 20 < 표 19> 차량편성당수송용량 () (:150%) () 1 10 1,576 2,100

< 표 20> 운전시격 ( 첨두시 ) (/, ) (/) () () 2031 1607 10 1,576 58.84 () = / () = (12%), () = [ 2() 60 / ] + 10 5 50 < 표 21> 신설노선열차운행횟수 () () () 10 4 24 20 15 45 69 (km/) = 688,783km/ < 표 22> 기존 4 호선열차추가연간운행거리 (/) (km) (km/) 14 8 14.21 40,584 22 10 14.21 50,730 22 16 14.21 81,168 22 10 14.21 50,730 22 16 14.21 81,168 14 8 14.21 40,584 344,962 :

6 6/12 < 표 23> 시운전비 (: ) () 144.41 72.21

: 14.54km ( : 0.33km, : 14.21km) : 3( 2, 1) : (1.34km), (3.83 km), (8.43 km) : 1() ( ) A. 8,722.41 A-1. 5,543.31 km 1.26 94.7 119.46 km 0.07 132.6 9.68 A-1-1. A-1-2. km 3.83 289.6 1,107.87 (10m) km 1.35 584.9 786.62 NATM km 6.29 181.6 1,142.15 km 0.79 254.0 200.65 (22) 2 417.8 835.50 () 2 1 483.5 483.48 A-1-3. 9 72.4 651.69 km 0.6 94.7 56.81 A-1-4. () km 0.9 166.0 149.39 A-2. 346.78 A-2-1. km 14.21 22.7 322.92 A-2-2. km 2.10 11.4 23.86 A-3. 179.84 A-3-1. 2 47.9 95.80 2 1 84.0 84.04 A-4 1,011.48 km 15.13 15.6 237.99 km 15.13 2.0 30.60 A-4-1. km 15.13 7.6 115.60 km 15.13 14.5 221.00 A-4-2. km 15.13 9.1 139.40 A-4-3. km 15.13 17.5 266.89 A-5 1641.00 A-5-1. 1,458.23 A-5-2. 182.77 B. 771.51 B-1. (A1~A5) (%) 115.14 B-2. (A1~A5) (%) 232.02 B-3. () (A1~A5) (%) 192.77 B-4. (A1~A5) (%) 87.22 B-5. SE A4 (%) 2.02 B-6. (%) 72.21 B-7. (B1~B6) (%) 70.14 C. 885.11 D. (A+B+C) 10% 1,037.90 E. 521.41 F. (A+B+C+D+E) 11,938.33

(5) (, 2008) < 표 24> 연차별사업비투자계획 / (: ) 2010 81 8 89 89 2011 104 10 114 114 2012 249 25 274 274 2013 89 10 436 53 588 588 2014 531 39 1,745 231 2,546 2,546 2015 266 48 2,181 249 2,744 2,744 2016 48 2,181 223 2,452 174 2,626 2017 39 1,745 178 1,962 174 2,136 2018 10 436 52 72 570 174 744 434 885 193 8,724 1,031 72 11,340 521 11,861 : 1) /.2) SE..3) 제 4 절운영비추정 4 4 (5),(, 2008), 4,,,, 4

/,,, 2008 < 표 25> 운영비산정결과 (: ) ( ) A. 96 57.99 A-1. 53 60,404 32.01 A-2. 37 60,404 22.35 A-3. 6 60,404 3.62 B. kwh 37,433 31.89 B-1. kwh 37,356 67.96 26.98 B-2. 3 1.62 4.86 B-3. kwh 73 67.96 0.05 C. km 15.26 43.84 C-1. km 14.21 287,297 40.82 C-2 km 1.05 287,297 3.02 D. (A+B+C) 8 % 10.70 144.41 < 표 26> 대체투자비및잔존가치 (: ) 20 1,011 1,011 25 521 / -52 374 816 30-375 -277-506 -651-1,809

< 표 27> 연간운영비집계표 (: ) 2019 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2020 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2021 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2022 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2023 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2024 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2025 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2026 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2027 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2028 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2029 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2030 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2031 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2032 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2033 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2034 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2035 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2036 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2037 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2038 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 1,011.48 1,155.89 2039 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2040 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2041 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2042 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2043 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 816.05 960.47 2044 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2045 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2046 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2047 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70 144.41 2048 57.99 31.89 43.84 10.70-1,809,33-1664.92 1,739.63 956.62 1,315.25 320.92 18.20 4,350.62

< 표 28> 연차별투입계획 ( 세금제외 ) / (: ) 2010 81 8 89 89 2011 104 10 114 114 2012 249 25 247 247 2013 89 10 436 53 588 588 2014 531 39 1,745 231 2,546 2,546 2015 266 48 2,181 249 2,744 2,744 2016 48 2,181 223 174 2,626 2,626 2017 39 1,745 178 174 2,136 2,136 2018 10 436 52 72 174 744 744 2019 144 144 2020 144 144 2021 144 144 2022 144 144 2023 144 144 2024 144 144 2025 144 144 2026 144 144 2027 144 144 2028 144 144 2029 144 144 2030 144 144 2031 144 144 2032 144 144 2033 144 144 2034 144 144 2035 144 144 2036 144 144 2037 144 144 2038 144 1,011 1,156 2039 144 144 2040 144 144 2041 144 144 2042 144 144 2043 144 816 960 2044 144 144 2045 144 144 2046 144 144 2047 144 144 2048 144-1,809-1,665 434 885 193 8,724 1,031 72 521 11,861 4,332 18 16,212

제 Ⅳ 장교통수요추정 제 1 절기본자료설정및분석범위설정 DB(KTDB: Korea Transportation Data Base) O/D Network - : 2008 - : 2019 - : 2021, 2026, 2031 - : 2036 -, 3% (RV) O/D (PV) (,,,,,,,,,, ),,, -

28 서울지하철4호선 연장사업 예비타당성조사 <표 29> 지하철 4호선 연장 사업의 최종 영향권 구분 영향권 법 남양주시 노원구 구리시 도봉구 중랑구 RV [그림 2] 최종 영향권 설정 지역 법 PV 남양주시 구리시 중랑구 성북구 종로구 광진구 의정부시 노원구 도봉구 강북구 중구 동대문구 성동구 강남구 최종영향권 (PV+RV법) 남양주시 노원구 구리시 도봉구 중랑구 강북구 성북구 중구 종로구 동대문구 광진구 성동구 의정부시 강남구

< 표 30> 최종영향권설정결과, (,,,,,,,,,, ),,, O/D Network,,, 1,522, 104 < 표 31> 교통존구분 () () 522 25 136 10 529 44 2 178 12 157 13 1,522 104

제 2 절기본자료의수정 Network,,, KDI,,, Network 제 3 절장래 O/D 및 Network 의수정 1. 장래개발계획의반영 1 1.31, 1 1.25 218,182/ 1 1.36, 1 1.25 29,533/ 1 1.36, 1 1.25 275,350/

2. 장래도로망계획반영, Network 11,450/ < 표 32> 장래추가반영 Network (km) ~ ~(46) 11.2 4 1,000 2011 ~ ~ 4.9 4 1,200 2013 제 4 절수단선택 1. 장래수단분담별통행량변화 4 가. 사업시행전여객통행수요추정, 2019 4,581, 2021 4,594, 2026 4,567, 2031 4,504, 2036 4,405 2026

나. 사업시행후수단별여객통행수요추정 2019 4,581, 2021 4,594, 2026 4,567, 2031 4,504, 2036 4,405 2021 다. 사업시행전 후수단별여객통행수요변화, 2019 29,851, 2021 31,753, 2026 32,751, 2031 32,614, 2036 32,084 제 5 절통행배정모형의정산 O/D network, 30% < 33> - < 33>, 86 ~ 98 ~ 30% - 30% 30.2% 33.3%

< 표 33> 기준연도관측교통량과추정교통량비교 08 (A) '08 (B) (B-A) (: /, ) % ( ) 1 IC-IC 67,680 57,587-10,093-14.9 2 IC-IC 67,375 67,803 428 0.6 6 3-55,640 49,106-6,534-11.7 43 4-53,527 52,278-1,249-2.3 46 5-45,494 49,945 4,451 9.8 6-68,944 60,830-8,115-11.8 47 7-61,684 61,230-453 -0.7 8-123,628 106,115-17,514-14.2 86 9-16,967 11,837-5,130-30.2 98 10-10,833 7,878-2,955-27.3 11-30,263 20,184-10,079-33.3 383 12-12,805 15,960 3,155 24.6 13-31,528 27,713-3,815-12.1 14 53,519 52,031-1,488-2.8 15 47,452 41,975-5,477-11.5 16 108,741 113,998 5,257 4.8 17 87,186 79,881-7,305-8.4 18 IC 123,628 106,115-17,514-14.2 1,128,800 1,023,251-105,549-9.4 [ 그림 3] 기준연도관측교통량과추정교통량정산지점

< 34> (5) < 표 34> 기준년도의역별수요정산결과 (: /, %) 35,798 45,814 28.0 89,405 112,244 25.5 63,720 70,988 11.4 4 70,300 62,310-11.4 45,564 38,951-14.5 25,513 23,413-8.2 329,399 330,300-0.3 22,430 21,171-5.6 98,412 101,358 3.0 7 29,694 34,260 15.4 40,016 43,010 7.5 26,947 20,504-23.9 217,499 220,303 1.3 : (4, ), (7, 4), 제 6 절장래교통수요추정 1. 장래과업노선수요예측결과 4 km 2019 2,492/km, 2021 2,506/km, 2026 2,488/km, 2031 2,512 /km, 2036 2,509/km.

< 표 35> 목표연도별장래통행량 (: /, /km) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 1 33,542 33,726 33,490 33,806 33,765 km 2,492 2,506 2,488 2,512 2,509 2. 장래과업노선역별승하차인원추정결과,, < 36>< 45> < 표 36> 2019 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 1 435 183 147 441 67 80 65 63 2 362 - - 514 158 - - 225 3 700 - - 751 307 - - 329 1,497 183 147 1,706 532 80 65 617 < 표 37> 2019 년역별승하차인원 ( 전일 ) (: /) 1 2,745 1,932 1,563 2,709 2 3,818 - - 5,431 3 7,405 - - 7,939 13,968 1,932 1,563 16,079 < 표 38> 2021 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 1 437 185 148 443 68 81 65 63 2 363 - - 516 159 - - 226 3 703 - - 754 309 - - 331 1,503 185 148 1,713 536 81 65 620

< 표 39> 2021 년역별승하차인원 ( 전일 ) (: /) 1 2,768 1,955 1,567 2,717 2 3,837 - - 5,454 3 7,447 - - 7,981 14,052 1,955 1,567 16,152 < 표 40> 2026 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 1 444 177 138 446 68 78 60 63 2 360 - - 507 158 - - 222 3 715 - - 748 313 - - 328 1,519 177 138 1,701 539 78 60 613 < 표 41> 2026 년역별승하차인원 ( 전일 ) (: /) 1 2,796 1,878 1,452 2,729 2 3,810 - - 5,358 3 7,555 - - 7,912 14,161 1,878 1,452 15,999 < 표 42> 2031 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 1 449 179 141 445 68 79 62 61 2 361 - - 536 158 - - 235 3 707 - - 751 310 - - 329 1,517 179 141 1,732 536 79 62 625

< 표 43> 2031 년역별승하차인원 ( 전일 ) (: /) 1 2,816 1,901 1,494 2,695 2 3,814 - - 5,669 3 7,478 - - 7,939 14,108 1,901 1,494 16,303 < 표 44> 2036 년역별승하차인원 (: /) 1 447 192 149 439 66 84 65 59 2 352 - - 540 154 - - 236 3 701 - - 750 307 - - 328 1,500 192 149 1,729 527 84 65 623 < 표 45> 2036 년역별승하차인원 ( 전일 ) (: /) 1 2,778 2,028 1,571 2,641 2 3,718 - - 5,700 3 7,409 - - 7,920 13,905 2,028 1,571 16,261

제 Ⅴ 장편익산정 제 1 절창동차량기지이전에의한편익 < 표 46> 시나리오별토지이용방안 1,, 2,,,, 3 ( ) 4,,, < 표 47> 각시나리오별토지이용계획의용도지역면적구성비 1 70.0% 10.5% - - 10.1% - 9.4% 100% 2 11.2% - 49.3% 11.5% 5.0% - 23.0% 100% 3 - - - - - 100% - 100% 4 40.2% 14.3% - 13.6% - 0.8% 31.1% 100%

179,578,,, 2009 1 1 1,490,000/ < 표 48> 창동차량기지주변문화및집회시설, 자연녹지시설의공지시가 (/) 364-3 1,890,000 820 1,490,000 (5), < 표 49> 지역별지목별보상배율 1.50 1.50 1.40 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.50 2.50 :, (5), 2008 1 1 1 7,552.

< 표 50> 시나리오 1 의경우의매각대금 70.0%, 10.5%, 10.1%, 9.4% () 7,552 2,,,, 2 13,231. < 표 51> 시나리오 2 의경우의매각대금 49.3%, 5.0%, 11.2%, 11.5%, 23.0% () 13,231 3 100% 3 3,746 < 표 52> 시나리오 3 의경우의매각대금 100% () 179,578 () 3,746 4 4 4 5,738

< 표 53> 시나리오 4 의경우의매각대금 40.2%, 14.3%, 13.6%, 0.8%, 31.1% () 5,738 제 2 절서울지하철 4 호선연장에의한편익 1. 편익산정,,,. (5)(2008) 4 8.9%, 15 3.9%, < 54> 2019 31,340, 2021 33,060, 2026 35,459, 2031 35,058, 2036 34,191

< 표 54> 도로상의통행시간비용절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 2,389,858 2,403,150 2,424,319 2,413,809 2,385,702 4 2,377,441 2,390,672 2,410,141 2,399,987 2,372,084 12,417 12,478 14,177 13,823 13,618 3,808,753 3,830,796 3,861,952 3,844,787 3,801,168 15 3,789,830 3,810,214 3,840,670 3,823,551 3,780,595 18,923 20,582 21,282 21,236 20,573 31,340 33,060 35,459 35,058 34,191, < 55> < 표 55> 지하철 전철통행시간비용절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 134,717 135,710 132,413 128,345 122,150 4 136,189 137,186 133,839 129,470 123,262-1,472-1,476-1,426-1,126-1,112 59,033 59,633 58,023 56,241 53,526 15 59,813 60,252 58,648 56,874 54,153-780 -618-624 -633-627 -2,252-2,094-2,050-1,759-1,739

< 표 56> 사업시행시통행시간절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 2,524,574 2,538,860 2,556,731 2,542,154 2,507,852 4 2,513,630 2,527,858 2,543,980 2,529,457 2,495,346 10,945 11,002 12,751 12,697 12,506 3,867,786 3,890,429 3,919,975 3,901,028 3,854,694 15 3,849,643 3,870,465 3,899,318 3,880,425 3,834,748 18,143 19,964 20,657 20,603 19,946 29,088 30,966 33,409 33,299 32,452 2019 7,883, 2021 8,134, 2026 8,920, 2031 8,759, 2036 8,677 < 표 57> 주요연도별운행비용절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 1,015,771 1,021,184 1,030,293 1,026,571 1,015,869 4 1,010,474 1,015,852 1,024,300 1,020,785 1,010,173 5,297 5,332 5,992 5,786 5,696 663,139 666,981 673,277 671,351 664,544 15 660,553 664,180 670,350 668,379 661,563 2,586 2,802 2,927 2,972 2,981 7,883 8,134 8,920 8,759 8,677 2019 1,567, 2021 1,708, 2026 1,840, 2031 1,822, 2036 1,750

< 표 58> 도로상교통사고절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 236,841 237,987 238,200 235,444 230,551 4 236,199 237,333 237,473 234,734 229,846 642 655 727 710 706 395,731 397,776 398,149 393,226 384,690 15 394,806 396,722 397,036 392,114 383,646 925 1,054 1,113 1,112 1,044 1,567 1,708 1,840 1,822 1,750 < 표 59> 지하철 전철교통사고절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 455 458 444 430 410 4 461 464 452 438 417-6 -6-8 -8-8 199 200 195 189 180 15 202 204 199 193 183-3 -4-4 -4-4 -10-10 -12-12 -12 < 표 60> 사업시행시교통사고절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 237,296 238,445 238,644 235,874 230,961 4 236,660 237,797 237,925 235,172 230,263 635 648 719 702 698 395,930 397,976 398,343 393,415 384,870 15 395,009 396,926 397,235 392,306 383,829 921 1,050 1,109 1,108 1,041 1,557 1,698 1,828 1,810 1,739

2019 1,700, 2021 1,830, 2026 1,925, 2031 1,892, 2036 1,846 < 61> < 표 61> 주요연도별환경비용절감편익 (: ) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 325,632 327,898 331,012 330,296 326,757 323,931 326,068 329,087 328,404 324,912 1,700 1,830 1,925 1,892 1,846 2019 3,002, 2021 3,205, 2026 3,353, 2031 3,327, 2036 2,986 < 62> < 표 62> 사업시행시주차비용절감편익 (: /) 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036 4 1,442 1,546 1,625 1,614 1,583 15 1,560 1,659 1,728 1,712 1,403 3,002 3,205 3,353 3,327 2,986 2019 43,230, 2021 45,833, 2026 49,435, 2031 49,087, 2036 47,700

< 표 63> 편익산출결과 (: ) 2019 29,088 7,883 1,557 1,700 3,002 43,230 2021 30,966 8,134 1,698 1,830 3,205 45,833 2026 33,409 8,920 1,828 1,925 3,353 49,435 2031 33,299 8,759 1,810 1,892 3,327 49,087 2036 32,452 8,677 1,739 1,846 2,986 47,700

제 Ⅵ 장경제성분석 제 1 절경제성분석의주요전제 : 5.5% : 2008 Deflator,,,,,,,, (,, ) 1 NPV -1,156.8, B/C 0.877 < 표 64> 시나리오 1 의경제성분석결과 B/C NPV() IRR 1 0.877-1,156.8 3.64

< 표 65> 시나리오 1 의경제성분석표 - (: ) 2010 89.0 89.0 0.0 80.0 0.0-80.0 2011 114.0 114.0 0.0 97.1 0.0-97.1 2012 274.0 274.0 0.0 221.2 0.0-221.2 2013 588.0 588.0 0.0 449.9 0.0-449.9 2014 2546.0 2546.0 0.0 1846.5 0.0-1846.5 2015 2744.0 2744.0 0.0 1886.3 0.0-1886.3 2016 2452.0 174.0 2626.0 0.0 1711.1 0.0-1711.1 2017 1962.0 174.0 2136.0 0.0 1319.3 0.0-1319.3 2018 570.0 174.0 744.0 0.0 435.6 0.0-435.6 2019 144.4 144.4 290.9 78.8 15.6 17.0 30.0 7552.0 7954.3 80.1 4430.6 4350.4 2020 144.4 144.4 300.3 80.1 16.3 17.7 31.0 445.3 76.0 234.2 158.3 2021 144.4 144.4 309.7 81.3 17.0 18.3 32.0 458.3 72.0 228.5 156.5 2022 144.4 144.4 314.5 82.9 17.2 18.5 32.3 465.5 68.2 220.0 151.7 2023 144.4 144.4 319.4 84.5 17.5 18.7 32.6 472.7 64.7 211.7 147.1 2024 144.4 144.4 324.3 86.1 17.8 18.9 32.9 479.9 61.3 203.8 142.5 2025 144.4 144.4 329.2 87.6 18.0 19.1 33.2 487.1 58.1 196.0 137.9 2026 144.4 144.4 334.1 89.2 18.3 19.3 33.5 494.3 55.1 188.6 133.5 2027 144.4 144.4 333.9 88.9 18.2 19.1 33.5 493.5 52.2 178.4 126.2 2028 144.4 144.4 333.6 88.6 18.2 18.9 33.4 492.7 49.5 168.9 119.4 2029 144.4 144.4 333.4 88.2 18.2 18.7 33.4 491.9 46.9 159.8 112.9 2030 144.4 144.4 333.2 87.9 18.1 18.5 33.3 491.1 44.5 151.2 106.7 2031 144.4 144.4 333.0 87.6 18.1 18.3 33.3 490.2 42.1 143.1 100.9 2032 144.4 144.4 331.3 87.4 18.0 18.3 32.6 487.6 40.0 134.9 94.9 2033 144.4 144.4 329.6 87.3 17.8 18.4 31.9 484.9 37.9 127.2 89.3 2034 144.4 144.4 327.9 87.1 17.7 18.4 31.2 482.3 35.9 119.9 84.0 2035 144.4 144.4 326.2 86.9 17.5 18.4 30.5 479.6 34.0 113.0 79.0 2036 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 32.2 106.5 74.3 2037 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 30.6 101.0 70.4 2038 144.4 1011.0 1155.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 231.8 95.7-136.1 2039 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 27.5 90.7 63.3 2040 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 26.0 86.0 60.0 2041 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 24.7 81.5 56.8 2042 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 23.4 77.3 53.9 2043 144.4 816.0 960.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 147.4 73.2-74.2 2044 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 21.0 69.4 48.4 2045 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 19.9 65.8 45.9 2046 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 18.9 62.4 43.5 2047 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 17.9 59.1 41.2 2048 144.4-1809.0-1664.6 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0-195.5 56.0 251.6 11339.0 4332.3 540.0 16211.3 9723.3 2588.3 525.5 554.1 939.1 7552.0 21852.2 9,391.3 8,234.4-1,156.8

2 NPV 1,994.5, B/C 1.212 < 표 66> 시나리오 2 의경제성분석결과 B/C NPV() IRR 2 1.212 1,994.5 9.36 < 표 67> 시나리오 2 의경제성분석표 (: ) - 2010 89.0 89.0 0.0 80.0 0.0-80.0 2011 114.0 114.0 0.0 97.1 0.0-97.1 2012 274.0 274.0 0.0 221.2 0.0-221.2 2013 588.0 588.0 0.0 449.9 0.0-449.9 2014 2546.0 2546.0 0.0 1846.5 0.0-1846.5 2015 2744.0 2744.0 0.0 1886.3 0.0-1886.3 2016 2452.0 174.0 2626.0 0.0 1711.1 0.0-1711.1 2017 1962.0 174.0 2136.0 0.0 1319.3 0.0-1319.3 2018 570.0 174.0 744.0 0.0 435.6 0.0-435.6 2019 144.4 144.4 290.9 78.8 15.6 17.0 30.0 13231.0 13663.3 80.1 7581.9 7501.8 2020 144.4 144.4 300.3 80.1 16.3 17.7 31.0 445.3 76.0 234.2 158.3 2021 144.4 144.4 309.7 81.3 17.0 18.3 32.0 458.3 72.0 228.5 156.5 2022 144.4 144.4 314.5 82.9 17.2 18.5 32.3 465.5 68.2 220.0 151.7 2023 144.4 144.4 319.4 84.5 17.5 18.7 32.6 472.7 64.7 211.7 147.1 2024 144.4 144.4 324.3 86.1 17.8 18.9 32.9 479.9 61.3 203.8 142.5 2025 144.4 144.4 329.2 87.6 18.0 19.1 33.2 487.1 58.1 196.0 137.9 2026 144.4 144.4 334.1 89.2 18.3 19.3 33.5 494.3 55.1 188.6 133.5 2027 144.4 144.4 333.9 88.9 18.2 19.1 33.5 493.5 52.2 178.4 126.2 2028 144.4 144.4 333.6 88.6 18.2 18.9 33.4 492.7 49.5 168.9 119.4 2029 144.4 144.4 333.4 88.2 18.2 18.7 33.4 491.9 46.9 159.8 112.9 2030 144.4 144.4 333.2 87.9 18.1 18.5 33.3 491.1 44.5 151.2 106.7 2031 144.4 144.4 333.0 87.6 18.1 18.3 33.3 490.2 42.1 143.1 100.9 2032 144.4 144.4 331.3 87.4 18.0 18.3 32.6 487.6 40.0 134.9 94.9 2033 144.4 144.4 329.6 87.3 17.8 18.4 31.9 484.9 37.9 127.2 89.3 2034 144.4 144.4 327.9 87.1 17.7 18.4 31.2 482.3 35.9 119.9 84.0 2035 144.4 144.4 326.2 86.9 17.5 18.4 30.5 479.6 34.0 113.0 79.0 2036 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 32.2 106.5 74.3 2037 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 30.6 101.0 70.4 2038 144.4 1011.0 1155.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 231.8 95.7-136.1 2039 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 27.5 90.7 63.3 2040 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 26.0 86.0 60.0 2041 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 24.7 81.5 56.8 2042 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 23.4 77.3 53.9 2043 144.4 816.0 960.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 147.4 73.2-74.2 2044 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 21.0 69.4 48.4 2045 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 19.9 65.8 45.9 2046 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 18.9 62.4 43.5 2047 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 17.9 59.1 41.2 2048 144.4-1809.0-1664.6 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0-195.5 56.0 251.6 11339.0 4332.3 540.0 16211.3 9723.3 2588.3 525.5 554.1 939.1 13231.0 27561.2 9391.2 11385.7 1994.5

3 NPV -3,418.7, B/C 0.636 < 표 68> 시나리오 3 의경제성분석결과 B/C NPV() IRR 3 0.636-3,418.7 0.84 < 표 69> 시나리오 3 의경제성분석표 - (: ) 2010 89.0 89.0 80.0 0.0-80.0 2011 114.0 114.0 97.1 0.0-97.1 2012 274.0 274.0 221.2 0.0-221.2 2013 588.0 588.0 449.9 0.0-449.9 2014 2546.0 2546.0 1846.5 0.0-1846.5 2015 2744.0 2744.0 1886.3 0.0-1886.3 2016 2452.0 174.0 2626.0 1711.1 0.0-1711.1 2017 1962.0 174.0 2136.0 1319.3 0.0-1319.3 2018 570.0 174.0 744.0 435.6 0.0-435.6 2019 144.4 144.4 290.9 78.8 15.6 17.0 30.0 3746.0 3908.3 80.1 2168.8 2088.6 2020 144.4 144.4 300.3 80.1 16.3 17.7 31.0 445.3 76.0 234.2 158.3 2021 144.4 144.4 309.7 81.3 17.0 18.3 32.0 458.3 72.0 228.5 156.5 2022 144.4 144.4 314.5 82.9 17.2 18.5 32.3 465.5 68.2 220.0 151.7 2023 144.4 144.4 319.4 84.5 17.5 18.7 32.6 472.7 64.7 211.7 147.1 2024 144.4 144.4 324.3 86.1 17.8 18.9 32.9 479.9 61.3 203.8 142.5 2025 144.4 144.4 329.2 87.6 18.0 19.1 33.2 487.1 58.1 196.0 137.9 2026 144.4 144.4 334.1 89.2 18.3 19.3 33.5 494.3 55.1 188.6 133.5 2027 144.4 144.4 333.9 88.9 18.2 19.1 33.5 493.5 52.2 178.4 126.2 2028 144.4 144.4 333.6 88.6 18.2 18.9 33.4 492.7 49.5 168.9 119.4 2029 144.4 144.4 333.4 88.2 18.2 18.7 33.4 491.9 46.9 159.8 112.9 2030 144.4 144.4 333.2 87.9 18.1 18.5 33.3 491.1 44.5 151.2 106.7 2031 144.4 144.4 333.0 87.6 18.1 18.3 33.3 490.2 42.1 143.1 100.9 2032 144.4 144.4 331.3 87.4 18.0 18.3 32.6 487.6 40.0 134.9 94.9 2033 144.4 144.4 329.6 87.3 17.8 18.4 31.9 484.9 37.9 127.2 89.3 2034 144.4 144.4 327.9 87.1 17.7 18.4 31.2 482.3 35.9 119.9 84.0 2035 144.4 144.4 326.2 86.9 17.5 18.4 30.5 479.6 34.0 113.0 79.0 2036 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 32.2 106.5 74.3 2037 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 30.6 101.0 70.4 2038 144.4 1011.0 1155.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 231.8 95.7-136.1 2039 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 27.5 90.7 63.3 2040 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 26.0 86.0 60.0 2041 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 24.7 81.5 56.8 2042 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 23.4 77.3 53.9 2043 144.4 816.0 960.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 147.4 73.2-74.2 2044 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 21.0 69.4 48.4 2045 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 19.9 65.8 45.9 2046 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 18.9 62.4 43.5 2047 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 17.9 59.1 41.2 2048 144.4-1809.0-1664.6 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0-195.5 56.0 251.6 11339.0 4332.3 540.0 16211.3 9723.3 2588.3 525.5 554.1 939.1 3746.0 17806.2 9391.2 5972.5-3418.7

4 NPV -2,163.5, B/C 0.770 < 표 70> 시나리오 4 의경제성분석결과 B/C NPV() IRR 4 0.770-2,163.5 2.26 < 표 71> 시나리오 4 의경제성분석표 - (: ) 2010 89.0 89.0 0.0 80.0 0.0-80.0 2011 114.0 114.0 0.0 97.1 0.0-97.1 2012 274.0 274.0 0.0 221.2 0.0-221.2 2013 588.0 588.0 0.0 449.9 0.0-449.9 2014 2546.0 2546.0 0.0 1846.5 0.0-1846.5 2015 2744.0 2744.0 0.0 1886.3 0.0-1886.3 2016 2452.0 174.0 2626.0 0.0 1711.1 0.0-1711.1 2017 1962.0 174.0 2136.0 0.0 1319.3 0.0-1319.3 2018 570.0 174.0 744.0 0.0 435.6 0.0-435.6 2019 144.4 144.4 290.9 78.8 15.6 17.0 30.0 5738.0 6170.3 80.1 3424.0 3343.8 2020 144.4 144.4 300.3 80.1 16.3 17.7 31.0 445.3 76.0 234.2 158.3 2021 144.4 144.4 309.7 81.3 17.0 18.3 32.0 458.3 72.0 228.5 156.5 2022 144.4 144.4 314.5 82.9 17.2 18.5 32.3 465.5 68.2 220.0 151.7 2023 144.4 144.4 319.4 84.5 17.5 18.7 32.6 472.7 64.7 211.7 147.1 2024 144.4 144.4 324.3 86.1 17.8 18.9 32.9 479.9 61.3 203.8 142.5 2025 144.4 144.4 329.2 87.6 18.0 19.1 33.2 487.1 58.1 196.0 137.9 2026 144.4 144.4 334.1 89.2 18.3 19.3 33.5 494.3 55.1 188.6 133.5 2027 144.4 144.4 333.9 88.9 18.2 19.1 33.5 493.5 52.2 178.4 126.2 2028 144.4 144.4 333.6 88.6 18.2 18.9 33.4 492.7 49.5 168.9 119.4 2029 144.4 144.4 333.4 88.2 18.2 18.7 33.4 491.9 46.9 159.8 112.9 2030 144.4 144.4 333.2 87.9 18.1 18.5 33.3 491.1 44.5 151.2 106.7 2031 144.4 144.4 333.0 87.6 18.1 18.3 33.3 490.2 42.1 143.1 100.9 2032 144.4 144.4 331.3 87.4 18.0 18.3 32.6 487.6 40.0 134.9 94.9 2033 144.4 144.4 329.6 87.3 17.8 18.4 31.9 484.9 37.9 127.2 89.3 2034 144.4 144.4 327.9 87.1 17.7 18.4 31.2 482.3 35.9 119.9 84.0 2035 144.4 144.4 326.2 86.9 17.5 18.4 30.5 479.6 34.0 113.0 79.0 2036 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 32.2 106.5 74.3 2037 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 30.6 101.0 70.4 2038 144.4 1011.0 1155.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 231.8 95.7-136.1 2039 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 27.5 90.7 63.3 2040 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 26.0 86.0 60.0 2041 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 24.7 81.5 56.8 2042 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 23.4 77.3 53.9 2043 144.4 816.0 960.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 147.4 73.2-74.2 2044 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 21.0 69.4 48.4 2045 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 19.9 65.8 45.9 2046 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 18.9 62.4 43.5 2047 144.4 144.4 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0 17.9 59.1 41.2 2048 144.4-1809.0-1664.6 324.5 86.8 17.4 18.5 29.9 477.0-195.5 56.0 251.6 11339.0 4332.3 540.0 16211.3 9723.3 2588.3 525.5 554.1 939.1 5738.0 20068.2 9391.2 7227.7-2163.5

제 2 절민감도분석 < 표 72> 시나리오 1 의민감도분석결과 B/C NPV() 4.5% 0.939-622 5.0% 0.907 911 5.5% 0.877-1,157 6.0% 0.848-1,366 6.5% 0.821-1,543-20% 1.096 721-10% 0.974-217.7 0% 0.877-1,157 +10% 0.797-2,096 +20% 0.731-3,035-20% 0.701-2,804-10% 0.789-1,980 0% 0.877-1,157 +10% 0.964-333 +20% 1.052 490 < 표 73> 시나리오 2 의민감도분석결과 B/C NPV() 4.5% 1.280 2,878 5.0% 1.246 2,410 5.5% 1.212 1,995 6.0% 1.181 1,626 6.5% 1.151 1,298-20% 1.515 3,873-10% 1.347 2,934 0% 1.212 1,995 +10% 1.102 1,055 +20% 1.010 116.3-20% 0.970-283 -10% 1.091 856 0% 1.212 1,995 +10% 1.334 3,133 +20% 1.455 4,272

< 표 74> 시나리오 3 의민감도분석결과 B/C NPV() 4.5% 0.695-3,133.4 5.0% 0.664-3,294.0 5.5% 0.636-3,418.7 6.0% 0.609-3,513.0 6.5% 0.585-3,581.6-20% 0.795-1,540.4-10% 0.707-2,479.5 0% 0.636-3,418.7 +10% 0.578-4,357.8 +20% 0.530-5,296.9-20% 0.509-4,613.2-10% 0.572-4,015.9 0% 0.636-3,418.7 +10% 0.700-2,821.4 +20% 0.763-2,224.2 < 표 75> 시나리오 4 의민감도분석결과 B/C NPV() 4.5% 0.831-1,739.5 5.0% 0.799-1,971.4 5.5% 0.770-2,163.5 6.0% 0.742-2,321.4 6.5% 0.716-2,450.1-20% 0.962-285.2-10% 0.855-1,224.3 0% 0.770-2,163.5 +10% 0.700-3,102.6 +20% 0.641-4,041.7-20% 0.616-3,609.0-10% 0.693-2,886.2 0% 0.770-2,163.5 +10% 0.847-1,440.7 +20% 0.924-717.9

제 3 절재무성분석의필요성검토 3, 4 1( ) 2( ) B/C 0.9 1 Check List 2 1 B/C 0.9, 1 Check List 2. 2 Yes', BTO. BTL, BTL, 2

제 Ⅶ 장정책적분석 제 1 절지역균형발전 < 76>.,, 1, < 표 76> 시 도별지역낙후도지표별순위 1 1 11 8 1 13 1 7 1 1 1 () 14 9 2 15 5 9 2 5 8 () 10 7 6 3 4 6 5 3 5 (, ) 5 5 4 12 9 5 6 6 6 8 10 5 10 2 2 3 8 7 2 14 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 () 3 1 8 1 13 1 7 7 2 1 4 9 5 8 3 8 2 3 12 15 16 7 7 12 16 14 14 9 6 14 9 14 11 14 12 11 6 11 11 11 11 14 9 9 12 15 13 12 14 6 13 11 15 15 16 12 13 16 15 16 13 16 16 13 3 15 8 16 15 15 13 13 7 2 10 6 12 10 12 11 9 4 16 7 4 10 8 10 10 10 :,,,.

52. < 표 77> 시 군별지역낙후도지표및순위,, (0.089) (0.044) (0.291) (0.131) (0.124) (0.117) (0.063) (0.142) -0.148 38.815 98.958 4.600 21.458 13.011 0.205 39.920 2.862 1 4.696 30.870 42.477 4.359 21.777 0.627 0.074 3.654 0.329 52 제 2 절지역경제파급효과분석결과 < 78>

< 표 78> 지역별파급효과추계결과 (: ) ( ) (%) ( ) (%) () (%) () (%) 4,505.22 20.03 818.86 22.07 3,349.06 24.95 4,866.75 26.46 760.39 3.38 152.56 4.11 526.33 3.92 670.95 3.65 160.88 0.72 34.07 0.92 131.11 0.98 200.58 1.09 1,542.35 6.86 203.06 5.47 733.98 5.47 930.68 5.06 87.29 0.39 19.67 0.53 70.94 0.53 114.73 0.62 346.20 1.54 59.72 1.61 212.47 1.58 293.31 1.59 313.60 1.39 30.19 0.81 104.66 0.78 130.15 0.71 11,928.78 53.03 1,946.64 52.46 6,711.88 49.99 8,756.63 47.61 386.83 1.72 76.27 2.06 271.05 2.02 409.19 2.22 467.07 2.08 74.63 2.01 268.18 2.00 377.25 2.05 726.79 3.23 95.78 2.58 342.66 2.55 502.54 2.73 265.41 1.18 48.50 1.31 167.24 1.25 277.16 1.51 415.53 1.85 48.80 1.32 178.84 1.33 292.06 1.59 276.20 1.23 44.99 1.21 158.47 1.18 253.35 1.38 288.72 1.28 51.03 1.38 176.82 1.32 269.40 1.46 24.06 0.11 5.98 0.16 21.51 0.16 47.42 0.26 22,495.33 100.00 3,710.76 100.00 13,425.20 100.00 18,392.14 100.00 1,979, 5,008 6,987. 0.2575% 2007, 0.1681%

< 표 79> 지역경제활성화효과 (: ) 1,037.87 8,456.05 9,493.92 1,979.12 5,007.57 6,986.69 (GRDP, 2008) 2,210,766.372 1,945,022.765 4,155,789.14 0.0895% 0.2575% 0.1681% :.1) 2008 2) AHP GRDP 3) 2007 40 0.17796%. 제 3 절정책의일관성및추진의지,, 47,

제 4 절사업추진상의위험요소 1,458.23, 164, 182.77 1,805 < 표 80> 차량기지이전비용 (: ) 1,458.23 164 182.77 1,805 1,805 60% 75%., 402.2, 2,534.1 1,086.0 251.4, 1,583.8 678.8 < 표 81> 본과업의재원분담 ( 거리비례적용시 ) (10%) (70%) (: ) (90%) (30%) 11,861 1,805 10,056 6,033.6 4,022.4 402.2 2,534.1 1,086.0 11,861 1,805 10,056 7,542.0 2,514.0 251.4 1,583.8 678.8

SOC. 4.6% < 표 82> SOC 분야투자계획 (:, %) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOC 247,436 248,074 253,224 259,064 267,322 2.0 201,925 171,353 179,258 195,523 214,929 1.6 94,731 78,065 80,884 85,893 91,440 0.9 47,454 40,472 43,323 49,535 56,847 4.6 15,898 11,382 11,924 12,935 14,579 2.1 21,298 18,350 19,094 20,625 22,622 1.5 592 656 697 789 923 11.7 21,952 22,228 23,337 25,746 28,517 6.8 :, (2009~2013) 402.2 251.4 0.09%( ) 0.05%( ) 4 4 2,534.1 1,583.8 0.7%, 0.4%

1,086, 678.8 < 83>, 2009 6,529 402 6.2% 4 120.7 30% 75.2 18.7% < 표 83> 남양주시세출예산현황 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 3,541 100 3,943 100 4,931 100 5,916 100 6,529 100 808 22.8 1,009 25.6 1,013 20.5 949 16.0 1,293 19.8 1,522 43.0 1,704 43.2 2,265 45.9 2,504 42.3 2,545 39.0 195 5.5 170 4.3 478 9.7 385 6.5 365 5.6, 589 16.6 618 15.7 544 11.0 458 7.7 413 6.3 514 14.5 709 18.0 944 19.1 1,341 22.7 1,428 21.9, 224 6.3 207 5.2 299 6.1 320 5.4 339 5.2 1,090 30.8 1,075 27.3 1,531 31.0 2,341 39.6 2,571 39.4 151 4.3 117 3.0 158 3.2 296 5.0 255 3.9 24 0.7 29 0.7 31 0.6 226 3.8 228 3.5 808 22.8 683 17.3 930 18.9 1,463 24.7 1,686 25.8 107 3.0 246 6.2 412 8.4 357 6.0 402 6.2 121 3.4 155 3.9 122 2.5 122 2.1 120 1.8

. < 84>,. < 표 84> 연도별남양주시의교통도로분야예산 (: ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (A) 3,087.2 3,540.9 3,942.6 4,931.4 5,915.9 (%) 46.3 44.5 40.4 41.1 40.6 (B) 521.1 524.9 769.6 1,153.5 1,501.7 (B/A, %) 16.9 14.8 19.5 23.4 25.4 (C) 76.5 75.8 206.7 331.1 296.5 (C/A, %) 2.5 2.1 5.2 6.7 5.0 (D) 12.5 28.5 31.9 73.9 58.5 (D/A,%) 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.0 (E) 432.0 420.5 531.0 748.6 1,146.6 (E/A,%) 14.0 11.9 13.5 15.2 19.4 :. < 85>. 2014, 2014

< 표 85> 연차별남양주시의부담액 (: ) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9.6 12.3 26.6 63.5 275.0 296.4 283.6 230.7 80.3 6.0 7.7 16.7 39.7 171.9 185.2 177.3 144.2 50.2 :..,,,.

제 Ⅷ 장종합및정책제언 제 1 절 AHP 분석결과, Saaty 9.,, 100 < 표 86> 가중치산정범위 (: %) 40 ~ 50 25 ~ 35 15 ~ 30 1, B/C 0.877, AHP -1.67. 2 B/C 1.212 AHP 1.98. B/C = 5.11532 (B/C) + (, B/C 1 = 1, B/C < 1 = -1) AHP

< 표 87> 각항목별가중치산정결과 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.500 0.500 0.400 0.400 0.500 0.500 0.471 0.350 0.350 0.300 0.300 0.350 0.300 0.328 0.263 0.280 0.263 0.263 0.292 0.225 0.269 0.044 0.047 0.131 0.131 0.243 0.169 0.129 0.219 0.233 0.131 0.131 0.049 0.056 0.140 0.088 0.070 0.038 0.038 0.058 0.075 0.059 0.015 0.018 0.033 0.033 0.015 0.060 0.033 0.073 0.053 0.005 0.005 0.044 0.015 0.026 0.150 0.150 0.300 0.300 0.150 0.200 0.201 0.100 0.100 0.200 0.200 0.100 0.133 0.134 0.050 0.050 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.067 0.067 : : 6, : : 0.471 : 0.328 : 0.201. 1 < 88> 0.508, 0.492,. 3, 3. < 표 88> 시나리오 1 의 AHP 평가결과 0.492 0.508 1 0.489 0.511 2 0.509 0.491 3 0.495 0.505 4 0.506 0.494 5 0.505 0.495 6 0.459 0.541

2 AHP, 0.629, 0.371. < 표 89> 시나리오 2 의 AHP 평가결과 0.629 0.371 1 0.634 0.366 2 0.654 0.346 3 0.611 0.389 4 0.622 0.378 5 0.650 0.350 6 0.604 0.396 AHP 2 AHP 0.629, < 90>. 1, AHP 0.492,.. < 표 90> 평가자별의견일치도와 AHP 평점에따른결론 : AHP < 0.45 0.45 AHP <0.5 0.5 AHP <0.55 0.55 AHP 4 : 0 - - 3 : 1 Feedback 2 : 2 AHP<0.42 AHP>0.42 AHP>0.58 AHP<0.58 1 : 3 Feedback 0 : 4 - - : 1) : (4 ).2) AHP AHP.3) -

제 2 절종합평가및정책제언 0.877.. -.. - - 0.636 4. 0.77., -

. -. 0.877. 2., 1.212.,. ()(2009~2013)

.. 2009 30% 18.7%.. -.. AHP 1 2 0.492 0.629..

. < 표 91> 예비타당성조사결과요약 () 1 1) 2 2) ~ ~ ( ) L=17.38km L=14.38km L=14.54km 201,630 186,630 186,630 10,990 10,990 3) 11,938 4) 2010~2018 :, : B/C 1.21 0.877 1.212 AHP - 0.492 0.629 : 1) 3.2)..3) (, 2010.05.11).4).