국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) Ⅰ. 문제제기., (, 2009, p. 223;, 1995, p. 99),, (, 1993, pp. 282, ;, ).., 1) 1993 (,

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 윤안국 *, 안경모 ** 1) Ⅰ. 문제제기 Ⅱ. 군사적위협으로서의한 미연합군사연습 Ⅲ. 국내정치와한 미연합군사연습 Ⅳ. 나가며 Abstract North Korean Response to the Joint ROK-U.S. Military Exercise: Review of the Threat Perception Variable The purpose of this study is to analyze North Korea s response to the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise, focusing on military threat and domestic politics. Especially, this study focuses on review of the military threat variables and then tries to explain the North Korea s responses to the military exercise that are not explained by military threat variables such as domestic politics. This study analyzes articles in Rodong Sinmun(1976-2017). In this article, the high and low levels of military threats are measured by the intensity of the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise. In other words, the intensity of military exercises is a manipulated value of military threats. The higher the strength of the military exercise, the more likely it is assumed that threat perception has increased. The intensity of the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise is evaluated by the number of forces, the period of exercise, the presence of U.S. strategic assets such as aircraft carriers and strategic bombers, and the content of the exercise. As a result, two variables such as 'military threat' and 'domestic politics' are meaningful to explain various responses from North Korea to the joint ROK-U.S. military exercise. It is necessary to consider the overall analysis of North Korea s response. Key Words : North Korea, Joint ROK-U.S. Military Exercise, Threat Perception, Domestic Politics, Regime Security *,, ankookz@naver.com **,, ahnkm77@gmail.com

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) Ⅰ. 문제제기., (, 2009, p. 223;, 1995, p. 99),, (, 1993, pp. 282, 321-322;, 1982. 2. 15. 6 ).., 1) 1993 (, 1993. 3. 9. 1 ). 2) 20 2018. 1) 6. (1968), (1976), 83 (1983), (1983), 93 (1993), 2006 7 (2006), (2010), (2015) 8 (, 2015. 8. 21). 2) 1992. Oberdorfer, Don(2001, pp. 406-407), Sigal, Leon(1998, pp. 68-70), Mazarr, Michael(1995, pp. 154-157). 72

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토.,. 3) 3.,,.,,.,..,. 1976 2017 <> 1,800.,,. 3) (2015), (2016). (2015),,. (2016) 1,,. 73

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) Ⅱ. 군사적위협으로서의한 미연합군사연습.. 1957. 4), (balancing strategy) ( 非 )., (unipolar system) (hegemon) (Oberdorfer, 2001, p. 377;, 2004, p. 334). 5) 1954 (Focus Lens) (1960), (1961), (1962) 1971 (SCM), 1978 (CFC) 4) 1957 (2012, pp. 220-228, 441-456), (2013). 5), -, 2000 (2004), (2017). 74

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 (threat perception). 6). 1. 변수와가설...,,. 1976. < 1>,,,. 7) < 표 1> 한 미연합군사연습의강도구분 8) 强, (FTX), (), 弱 - (CPX) 6) (2016). 7) (2006, pp. 16-23, 350-357), Robert Jervis(1978/2015, pp. 196-198), (2015, pp. 22-25). 8). 20 60 20 60,, (1983) (, 2016) 1983, 2016 75

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 2>. < 표 2> 한 미연합군사연습강도변화 (1976-2017) 9) ( ) 10) 1976-1980 ( ) 1981-1993 ( ) 1994-2008, RSOI(KR)/FE 2009-2017 (KR/FE) 5 ~16 ( 弱 ) 13 ~22 ( 强 ) 60% 11) ( 弱 ) 21 ~30 ( 强 ) 2~4 ( 弱 ) 9~12 ( 强 ) 1~2 ( 弱 ) 7~8 ( 强 ) ( 弱 ), ( 强 ) ( 弱 ), ( 强 ) ( 强 ), ( 强 ), ( 弱 ), ( 强 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ), 1, 2, 3 3. 12) 9) < 2> 60(2013). 10) 1994 RSOI 2001 1995 2002 RSOI. 2009. 2008 RSOI (Key Resolve), KR/FE,. 11),,. 30,000~35,000, 54,000 93 60%. 12).. (2010, pp. 34-35, 57, 269),. 76

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토. 1978 3 6,. 13).,..,,,,,, 6 (, 2015. 8. 21)...,.. 2. 검증 가. 공식비난성명의위상과양,,. 13). [( (, 1978. 3. 6. 4 ))]. 2017 8 22 17 UFG, 8 31 8 29.[. ( (, 2017. 8. 23, 4 ))]; (, 2017. 9. 1, 4 ). 77

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ),. < 1> 1976~1980,. 성명횟수 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 군사기관대외기관대남기관 1976-1980 1981-1993 1994-2008 2009-2017 시기 < 그림 1> 기관별비난성명횟수 14)? < 2>. ( ),,. 14) < 1> (1976~2017). 78

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 최고사령부, 국방위원회총참모부판문점대표부등 1 성명 비중 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1976-1980 1981-1993 1994-2008 2009-2017 시기 < 그림 2> 성명주체의비중변화 ( 군사기관 ) 나. 전투준비태세발령 < 2> < 3>. 1981-1993 2009-2017.. 79

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 표 3> 한 미연합군사연습관련북한전투준비태세발령현황 15) / 1976-1980 / ( ) - 1981-1993 / ( ) 1983(, 2. 1) 1984(, 2. 5) 1985() 1986(, 2. 11), 1988(, 3. 22) 1989(, 3. 12) 1990(, 2. 27) 1991(, 2. 26) 1993(, 3. 8) 1994-2008, RSOI(KR)/FE / ( ) - 2009-2017 KR/FE / ( ) 2009(, 8. 17) 2010(, 3. 8) 2013(1, 3. 26) 2015(, 8. 21) 다. 노동신문의비난보도량.,,. 1976 1993 < 3>. 15). 80

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 팀스피리트연습강도 노동신문보도량 상대값 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '93 연도 < 그림 3> 팀스피리트연습강도와노동신문보도량의관계 (1976-1993) 16) < 3>. 1981 1986 1987. 17) 1. 1986 1984 16) 1992, 1992 10 8 24 93. 17) 1978, 1977 1978 (, 1989, p. 68).. 81

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) 1985. 1991 1993 1980. 1. RSOI < 4> 1995. 독수리연습강도 노동신문보도량 상대값 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 연도 < 그림 4> 독수리연습강도와노동신문보도량의관계 (1994-2008) RSOI 2009 2017. 2013. 82

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 상대값 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 KR/FE 연습강도 노동신문보도량 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 연도 < 그림 5> KR/FE 연습강도와노동신문보도량의관계 (2009-2017) 1. Ⅲ. 국내정치와한 미연합군사연습.?. (monolithic),,. 83

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) 1. 변수와가설 (national security) (regime security). (political survival).,,,. 18). (combat environment) (combat ethos) (siege mentality) (Kenneth Jowitt, 1992, p. 126)..,.,.., 18) Bruce Bueno de Mesquita et al.(2005). 84

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토. 1,. (political succession).. 2. 검증 가. 노동신문의관련보도량. ( 話者 )...,. ( 聽者 )..... 1995, 2013. 19) 19) 1986,. 1985, 85

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ). 1995 (< 4> ). 1994 3, 1995 24, 1995 1996, 1998. 1995? 1994 7. 20, 10. 1994 10 1,. RSOI (2002~2017). < 5> KR/FE 2013. 2013, 144, 2009~2012, 2016, 2017. 2012 1986 ( (2005, pp. 194-214). 1991, 1993 3. 3 (2017) < 6-1> < 6-2>. 86

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토. 나. 훈련기간군사도발비율. 20),,.,. (D-50),, (D+50) (, 1991~2016;, 2014, pp. 6-85;, 2014, pp. 104-106). < 6>,.., 2002 2011 2006 UFL ( 06. 7. 5) 2010 ( 10. 3. 26). 20) Victor Cha(2016)., KR/FE UFG.,. 87

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) 2010 KR/FE 2002~2009. 20 군사연습전 (D-50~) 및연습기간 군사연습후 ( 종료 ~D+50), 기타 군사도발 15 10 5 0 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 연도 < 그림 6> 한 미연합군사연습기간북한의군사도발현황 21) 2012 /...,. 21),, NLL. < 5>. 88

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 다. 훈련기간군사부문현지지도비율.... < 4>. < 표 4> 한 미연합군사연습간군사부문현지지도 (1994-2017) 22) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 10 22 22 32 27 13 34 24 47 50 53 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 4 0-10% 9% 9% 6% 4% 8% 6% 0% 0% 8% 0% (1 ) (1 ) - 62 17% 37 10% 37 0% 33 9% 30 8% 29 8% 19 5% 19 5% 73 20% 19 5% - - - - - - - - - - - - 19 5% 22) < 4> (1994-2011), (2010-2012), (2013).,,,,.,, (1982. 4. 25, 1983. 4. 25, 1984. 4. 25, 1988. 4. 25, 1989. 4. 25) (, 1994, pp. 220-221;, 1988. 4. 25. 1 ; 1989. 4. 25. 1 ). 89

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 표 4> 계속. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 59 39 43 20 14 15 27 33 43 24 33 27 4 0 0 1 3 1 11 11 5 6 11 9 7% 0% 0% 5% 21% 7% 41% 33% 12% 25% 33% 33% (1 ) (1 ) 19 5% 19 5% 11 3% 23 6% 65 23) 18% 73 20% 75 21% 73 20% 66 18% 66 18% 66 18% - - - - - - O O - O O O 72 20% (1994-2011), 1,. 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008. 24) 2004, 2006, 2010 2~3%. 100%.. 2016 KR/FE,., 2016 KR/FE UFG 66, 1 18% 23) 2010 FE,. 24) 2003 2008 50, 03 RSOI/FE 08 UFG. 90

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 11 2016 33 33% 183%.. 152% 66% 100% 2014... 2012 2, (, 2012. 2. 26).,,,.. Ⅳ. 나가며., 91

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 )... 25) 2018 4 27 3.. 2018 40 (, 2018. 3. 6). 26) 2017 7 6 ( 新 )?, 10 (, 2017. 7. 11. 2 ; 25). 23 33.. (2017, pp.127-162), < 6-1> < 6-2>. 26) (),.. [. (, (, 2014. 1. 17. 2 ))] 92

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토, 2018. 2. 25. 6 ).? (capability), 15. 27) (bandwagon) (balance),.,. (, 2015. 7, p. 49).,, 2016 7 2017 7 2. 27) ICBM, ICBM -13, 2018 ICBM (, 2017, pp. 2, 4). 2016 4, 2016 1 15.. 19, ( 雙中斷 ) ( 雙軌並行 : ) (, 2017, p.6). 93

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ),, (, 2018. 3. 28).. 논문접수 : 2017 11 30 논문수정 : 2018 4 3 게재확정 : 2018 4 9 참고문헌. (1991). 1991-1992 ; (1996). 1996-1997 ; (1998). 1998 ; (1999). 1999 ; (2000). 2000 ; (2005). 2004 ; (2006). 2006 ; (2009). 2008 ; (2010). 2010 ; (2012). 2012 ; (2014). 2014 ; (2016). 2016. :.. (2009). : 1986~1990 ; :.. (2013). 60 ; :.. (2017). ICBM., 134. :. pp. 1-4.. (2016). :., 19 2. :.. (1993). < > (1985 6 29 )., 9. :.. (1993). <> (1986 94

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 3 6 )., 9. :.. (2013).. :.. (2005). 1. :.. (2004).. :.. (1994). : 1980-1990., 3 1... (2017).... (2017). (1988~2003). :. (2010). : 20. :.. (2014).. :.. (1989).. :.. (2006).. :.. (2017).., 99. :.. (2004).., 10 2. :.. (2015).... (2017).., 137. :.. (1976-2015)., 12-77.. (2015)., (2015 7 ).. (2014).. :.. (1993).. : ( ).. (1995). (1972-1995). : ( ).. (2012).. :. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2005). The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. 95

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) Kenneth Jowitt. (1992). New World Disorder. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. Mazarr, Michael. (1995). North Korea and Bomb. St. Martin s Press. Oberdorfer, Don. (2001). The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History. New York: Basic Books. Robert Jervis. (2015). War and Misperception. 1: ( ). :. ( 1978 ). Sigal, Leon. (1998). Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea. Princeton: Princeton U.P. Victor Cha, Na Young Lee, and Andy Lim. (2016). DPRK provocations and US-ROK Military Exercises 2005 to 2016. CSIS Beyond Parallel. http://beyondparallel.csis.org/dprkprovocations.. (1978. 3. 6). 4 ; (1982. 2. 15). 6 ; (1988. 4. 25). 1 ; (1989. 4. 25). 1 ; (1993. 3. 9). 1 ; (2017. 8. 23). 4 ; (2017. 9. 1). 4 ; (2018. 2. 25). 6.. (2012. 2. 26). 北?. (2015. 8. 21)... (2018. 3. 6). http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2018/03/06/0200000000 AKR2 0180306181051001.HTML. ( : 2018. 3. 10).. (2018. 3. 28).,. http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2018/03/28/0200000000akr2018032808200 0014.HTML. ( : 2018 4 2 ).. (2017. 7. 11). 2. 96

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 1-1> 독수리 (FE) 연습현황 (1994-2001) 28) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 11.1-7 10.13-11.17 10.28-11.10 10.27-11.6 10.26-11.6 10.26-11.5 10.25-11.3??? 1,000,000 530,000 -? 30,000 34,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 30,000 - - - - - < 부록 1-2> 연합전시증원 (RSOI) 연습현황 (1994-2001) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 4 5.8-5.22 4.17-? 4.8-4.21 4.22-4.30 4.13-4.19 4.15-4.21 4.20-4.26 13,000 13,000 12,000 8,000 7,000 4,200 4,700 < 부록 1-3> UFL(UFG) 연습현황 (1991-2017) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 8.19-31 8.19-30 8.17-31 8.22-9.4 8.22-9.1 8.19-30 8.18-29 8.17-28 8.16-27 8.21-9.1 16,500 70,000 76,000 72,800 14,000 12,000 6,500 13,000 20,000 16,800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.20-31 8.19-30 8.18-29 8.23-9.3 8.22-9.2 8.21-9.1 8.20-31 8.18-22 8.17-27 69,000 14,500 25,000 66,000 66,000 66,000 13,000 6,500 12,000 10,000 8,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8.16-26 8.16-26 8.20-31 8.19-30 8.18-29 8.17-28 8.22-9.1 8.21-31 80,000 89,000 86,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 75,000 65,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 17,500 < 부록 1-4> KR(RSOI)/FE 연습현황 (2002-2017) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 KR 3.21-27 3.19-26 3.22-28 3.19-25 3.25-31 3.25-31 3.2-7 3.9-20 3.8-18 FE 3.3-4.2 3.8-4.30 700,000?????? 229,000 218,000 17,000? 17,000 17,000 20,000 16,500 27,000 29,000 18,000-28) (1976-1993). 60 (:, 2013). p. 423. 97

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 부록 1-4> 계속. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 KR 2.28-3.10 2.27-3.9 3.11-21 2.24-3.6 3.2-13 3.7-18 3.13-24 FE 3.1-4.30 3.1-4.30 3.1-4.30 2.24-4.18 3.2-4.24 3.7-4.30 3.1-4.30 212,800 213,100 213,500 212,700 212,300 290,000 290,000 12,800 13,100 13,500 12,700 12,300 17,000 10,000 - F-22 B-2, B-52 -, F-22, B-2 < 부록 2> 한 미연합군사연습에대한북한당국차원의비난발표 1976 T/S - - - 1977 T/S - - - 1978 T/S - (3.6), (6.27) 1979 T/S (2.28) -, F-35B, B1B (3.3) 1980 T/S - - - 1981 T/S - (6.25) (2.11) 1982 T/S - (2.15), (4.7) (1.16) 1983 T/S 1984 T/S 1985 T/S / (2.1), (5.17) /(2.5) / (2.4), (4.22) (2.15) (6.22) - - (1.31) 1986 T/S (1.23), (2.7), (1.12), (2.11), (4.7) (2.9), /(2.11) (2.12), (2.20), (3.16), (4.8) 1987 T/S (4.27) (7.24) (1.27) 1988 T/S 1989 T/S /(3.22), (6.16) (1.10), /(3.12), (3.14), (3.24) - (1.27) (3.15) 98

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 2> 계속. (1.23), (3.6), 1990 T/S /(2.27), (1.24) (4.25) (3.7) T/S (1.27), (4.18) (1.28), (11.3) 1991 /(2.26) 1992 1993 - (11.7) (11.3) (3.14), - (10.13), (1.9), (10.14), (10.29), (12.25) (10.31), (11.3) T/S ( ) - (11.3) - (1.15), (1.28), T/S / (3.8), (3.1), (3.13), (3.25) (8.18) (1.29), (3.14) UFL - (8.17) (8.10) - - (11.15) (2.1), T/S - (2.13), 1994 () (3.22), (4.29) (1.19), (1.31) - - (11.3) 1995 RSOI - (4.20) - - (10.19) (10.23) 1996 - (10.29) - 1997 UFL - (8.6) (8.6) - (10.28) - 1998 UFL (8.19) (8.18) (8.20) - (10.25) - 1999 RSOI - (4.14) - - (10.26) (10.27) RSOI - (4.15) - 2000 UFL - - (8.19) - (10.27) - 2001 RSOI - (4.17) - 2002 RSOI/FE - (3.18) (3.14) UFL - - - 2003 RSOI/FE (2.17) (2.25) - UFL - - - RSOI/FE 2004 (3.14) (3.19) (3.19) UFL - (8.20) (8.6), (8.24) 99

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 RSOI/FE - (3.15) UFL (8.13) (8.24), (8.29) RSOI/FE (3.14) (3.23) < 부록 2> 계속. (3.11), (3.15), (3.26) (9.2) (2.6), (3.13) UFL (8.22) - - RSOI/FE - (3.22) (3.10) UFL (8.10) (8.21) (8.2) KR/FE (3.2) (3.3) (2.6), (3.2) UFG (8.18) (8.20) (8.18) KR/FE (3.9), (3.10) (3.11) (3.5) (8.15), UFG / (8.19) (8.17) (8.17) (2.25), (3.7), KR/FE / (3.9) - (3.8), (3.25) UFG (8.15) (8.18) (7.27) KR/FE (2.27) (3.1) UFG (8.7) (8.17) (8.17) (2.25), KR/FE (3.2), (2.27) (2.4) (3.3) UFG (8.23), (8.6), (8.20) (8.19) (8.21) KR/FE UFG (2.23), (3.5), (3.13), (3.21), /1 (3.26), (4.4), (4.16), (4.18) (8.29) (3.7), (3.14), (3.20), (3.26), (3.30), (4.16) (3.8), (3.11), (3.20), (3.26), (3.28), - (8.20) 100

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 (1.16), (2.6), (3.28), KR/FE (3.30) (3.5), 2014 (3.14), (4.7) 2015 2016 2017 UFG KR/FE UFG KR/FE UFG KR/FE (6.30), (8.17) (1.7), (1.7), (3.1) (8.15), (8.20) / (8.21) (2.23), (3.7), (3.12), (4.3), (5.5) (8.22), (8.27), (9.1) (3.2), (3.9), (3.26), (4.14) (7.7), (7.19), (8.18) (3.2) (8.13), (8.21) (3.6), (3.16), (3.31), (4.2), (4.30), (4.30) (7.25), (8.17), (8.22) (3.4), (3.8), (3.29), (4.6), (4.10) < 부록 2> 계속. (1.15), (3.28) (8.14), (8.29) (3.3) (8.12) (3.7), (3.23) (8.21) (2.1) UFG (8.22) (8.31) - 101

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 부록 3-1> 노동신문의한 미연합군사연습에대한보도량 (1976-1993) UFL 1976 6(1) 6(1) 0 0 1977 2 2 0 1 1978 31(2) 31(2) 0 0 1979 3(2) 3(2) 0 0 1980 3 3 0 0 1981 18 18 0 0 1982 18 18 0 0 1983 38(9) 36(9) 2 0 1984 32(4) 32(4) 0 0 1985 47(2) 43(2) 4 0 1986 75(6) 65(6) 10 0 1987 37(2) 36(2) 1 0 1988 46(4) 45(4) 1 0 1989 63(4) 56(4) 5 2 1990 52(4) 51(4) 1 0 1991 80(3) 70(3) 1 9 1992 79(3) 40(3) 22 17 1993 107(9) 83(9) 15 9-563(55) 62(0) 38(0) [( ) 1 ] < 부록 3-2> 노동신문의한 미연합군사연습에대한보도량 (1994-2001) UFL 1994 10 0 7 3 1995 38 7 7 24 1996 24 1 6 17 1997 48 2 17 29 1998 39 4 21 14 1999 46 6 19 21 2000 9 5 2 2 2001 12 7 5 226(0) 32(0) 84(0) 110(0) [( ) 1 ] < 부록 3-3> 노동신문의한 미연합군사연습에대한보도량 (2002-2017) KR/FE(RSOI/FE) UFG(UFL) 2002 43 35 8 2003 50 39 11 2004 29 11 18 2005 32 23 9 2006 37 23 14 2007 35 20 15 2008 39(1) 28(1) 11 102

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 3-3> 계속. KR/FE(RSOI/FE) UFG(UFL) 2009 52(2) 36(1) 16(1) 2010 43(1) 29(1) 14 2011 53 32 21 2012 74(3) 30 44(3) 2013 147(9) 144(9) 3 2014 111(2) 67(2) 44 2015 58(2) 35 23(2) 2016 82(6) 66(6) 16 2017 79(2) 55(1) 24(1) - 673(21) 291(7) [( ) 1 ] < 부록 4> 한 미연합군사연습기간북한의군사도발현황 (D-50 ) (D+50 ) 1976 T/S : 6.10-6.20 - - - (8.18) 1977 T/S : 3.28-4.13 - - 1-1978 T/S : 3.7-3.17 - - 1 1 1979 T/S : 3.1-3.17 - - - 2 1980 T/S : 3.1-3.30 - - - 3 1981 T/S : 2.1-4.10 - - - 1 1982 T/S : 2.13-4.26 - - - - 1983 T/S : 2.1-4.16 - - - (10. 9) 4 1984 T/S : 2.1-4.30 1 - - - 1985 T/S : 2.1-4.30 - - - 1 1986 T/S : 2.10-4.25 - - 1 1 1987 T/S : 2.19-5.9 - - - KAL (11.29) 5 1988 T/S : 2.12-5.11 - - - - 1989 T/S : 1.27-4.26-1 - - 1990 T/S : 1.26-4.25 - - 1-1991 1992 T/S : 1.24-4.23 UFL : 8.19-8.31 FE : 11.1-11.8 UFL : 8.19-8.30 FE : 11.3-11.9 - - - 1 - - - - 103

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 T/S : 1.21-4.20 UFL : 8.17-8.31 FE : 11.15-11.20 RSOI : 4 UFL : 8.22-9.4 FE : 11.1-11.7 RSOI : 5.8-5.22 UFL : 8.22-9.1 FE : 10.13-11.17 RSOI : 4.17-4.30 UFL : 8.19-8.30 FE : 10.28-11.10 RSOI : 4.8-4.21 UFL : 8.18-8.29 FE : 10.27-11.6 RSOI : 4.22-4.30 UFL : 8.17-8.28 FE : 10.26-11.6 RSOI : 4.13-4.19 UFL : 8.16-8.27 FE : 10.26-11.5 RSOI : 4.15-4.21 UFL : 8.21-9.1 FE : 10.25-11.3 RSOI : 4.20-4.26 UFL : 8.20-8.31 FE : - RSOI/FE : 3.21-3.27 UFL : 8.19-8.30 RSOI/FE : 3.3-4.2 UFL : 8.18-8.29 RSOI/FE : 3.22-28 UFL : 8.23-9.3 RSOI/FE : 3.19-3.25 UFL : 8.22-9.2 RSOI/FE : 3.25-3.31 UFL : 8.21-9.1 (D-50 ) (D+50 ) < 부록 4> 계속. - - 1 - - - - - - - - - (9.18) 2 - - - 1 - - - - - 1 (8.31) 3 - - - 1 1 (6.16) - - - - - - - - 1 - - 2 (6.29) - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - - (7.5) - 1 (10.9) - 104

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 4> 계속. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 RSOI/FE : 3.25-3.31 UFL : 8.20-8.31 KR/FE : 3.2-3.7 UFG : 8.18-8.22 KR/FE : 3.9-3.20 UFG : 8.17-8.27 KR/FE : 3.8-4.30 UFG : 8.16-8.26 KR/FE : 2.28-4.30 UFG : 8.16-8.26 KR/FE : 2.27-4.30 UFG : 8.20-8.31 KR/FE : 3.1-4.30 UFG : 8.19-8.30 KR/FE : 2.24-4.18 UFG : 8.18-8.29 KR/FE : 3.2-4.24 UFG : 8.17-8.28 (D-50 ) (D+50 ) - - - - - - 2-1 - 2 - (3.26) - 2 (5.25), (11.10) 3 (11.23) - - - - 1 3 (2.12) 2 (4.13) - (12.12) 1 3-8 8 3 4 DMZ (8.4) 2 (8.20) 5 2 1 2016 KR/FE : 3.7-4.30 UFG : 8.22-9.1 (2.7) 3 (4.15),(4.28), SLBM (4.23), (8.24) 9 (5.31), 5(9.9) 3 4 (1.6) 2017 KR/FE : 3.1-4.30 UFG : 8.21-8.31 (2.12), ICBM (7.4), (7.28) 3 (3.22), (8.29) 7 (5.14), (9.15), (5.21), 6 (9.3) 7 ICBM (11.29) 105

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) < 부록 5> 북한최고지도자의한 미연합군사연습기간군사부문현지지도 (1994-2017) / 1994 RSOI : 4 UFL : 8.22-9.4 0, 1994 : 0 FE : 11.1-11.7 1995 RSOI : 5.8-5.22 UFL : 8.22-9.1 FE : 10.13-11.17 1 (8.30) 1996 RSOI : 4.17-4.27 (4.25) UFL : 8.19-8.30 2 (11.1) FE : 10.28-11.10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RSOI : 4.8-4.21 UFL : 8.18-8.29 FE : 10.27-11.6 RSOI : 4.22-4.30 UFL : 8.17-8.28 FE : 10.26-11.6 RSOI : 4.13-4.19 UFL : 8.16-8.27 FE : 10.26-11.5 RSOI : 4.15-4.21 UFL : 8.21-9.1 FE : 10.25-11.3 RSOI : 4.20-4.26 UFL : 8.20-8.31 RSOI/FE : 3.21-3.27 UFL : 8.19-8.30 RSOI/FE : 3.3-4.2 UFL : 8.18-8.29 RSOI/FE : 3.22-3.28 UFL : 8.23-9.3 RSOI/FE : 3.19-3.25 UFL : 8.22-9.2 RSOI/FE : 3.25-3.31 UFL : 8.21-9.1 RSOI/FE : 3.25-3.31 UFL : 8.20-8.31 KR/FE : 3.2-3.7 UFG : 8.18-8.22 KR/FE : 3.9-3.20 UFG : 8.17-8.27 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 4 0-4 0-0 1 1211 (4.15) 233 (11.2) 604 (4.25) 593 (11.02) (4.15) (4.15) 671 (4.25) 2796 (8.28) (8.20~24), 2.13~4.2( 50 ) 916 (3.27) 979 (3.28) 155 (8.30) 363 (9.3) 236 (3.25) 3406 (3.26) 1643 (8.29) 851 (8.29) 8.15~10.3(50 ) 1811 (3.15) 106

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 5> 계속. / 567 (4.14) KR/FE : 3.8-4.30 2010 3 115 (4.24) UFG : 8.16-8.26 78 586 (4.25) KR/FE : 2.28-4.30 (3.25) 2011 1 UFG : 8.16-8.26, (8.20~27) (3.2) (3.3) (3.9) 123 (3.9) (3.14) KR/FE : 2.27-4.30 2012 11 (4.4) UFG : 8.20-8.31 155 (4.5) 655 (4.27) 4302 (8.24) 313 894 (8.27) 318 (8.28) (3.7) (3.11) 641 (3.11) (3.14) KR/FE : 3.1-4.30 (3.20) 2013 11 UFG : 8.19-8.30 1973 (3.22) 1973 2 (3.23) 1501 (3.24) (3.25) (3.29) (8.24) 2014 2015 KR/FE : 2.24-4.18 UFG : 8.18-8.29 KR/FE : 3.2-4.24 UFG : 8.17-8.28 5 6 2620 (3.7) (3.17) 188 (3.17) (4.2) (8.28) 447 (3.3) 1016 (3.9) (3.12) (3.20) 164 (4.4) (4.19) 107

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) / 2016 2017 KR/FE : 3.7-4.30 UFG : 8.22-9.1 KR/FE : 3.1-4.30 UFG : 8.21-8.31 11 9 < 부록 5> 계속. (3.11) -2016 (3.11) (3.15) (3.20) (3.22) (3.24) (3.25) (4.2) (4.9) SLBM (4.24) SLBM (8.25) 966 (3.1) (3.7) (3.19) -2017 (4.1) 2017(4.13) (4.23) (4.26) (8.26) (8.29) 108

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 < 부록 6-1> 북한이한 미연합군사연습을구실로협상을중단한사례 29) () 78 (3.7-3.17) 85 (2.1-4.30) / 26 2 1978.3.19 1984.11.27 1985.1.9 8 1985.1.9 /, 78, 26, (1984.11.23, ) 12 5 2, 85 2,, 1985 5 17, 1 23 85, 1985 5 27 86 (2.10-4.25) 89 (1.27-4.26) 90 (1.26-4.25) 6 3 11 8 7 11 1986.1.20 1989.2.8 1990.2.8, 1 22, 2 18, 2 26 6, 3, 11 86,,, 2 10 8 89 1989 10 25, 90 7 : 1990 7 3 11 : 91 (1.24-4.23) 4 1991.2.18, 91, 2 25 1991 10 22 91 (11.1-11.8), 91 11 7 5 1991.11.5, 1991 11 11 29), 12~77 (1976~2015);. (1993), pp. 171-183;, (1988~2003) (:, 2017), p. 27. 109

국방정책연구제 34 권제 1 호 2018 년봄호 ( 통권제 119 호 ) () 92 UFL (8.19-8.30) 92 (11.3-11.9) 93 (1.21-4.20) 03 RSOI/FE (3.3-4.2) 04 RSOI/FE (3.22-3.28) 06 RSOI/FE (3.25-3.31) / 8 1992.8.7 1992.10.28 1 1992.11.3 10 9 2 3 4 3 1992.11.6 1992.12.19 1993.1.29 1993.1.25 2003.3.22 2004.3.22 18 2006.3.11 / < 부록 6-1> 계속., 92 UFL 3, 8, 92,, 11 11 5 1, 11 10,, 1992 11 18,,, 93, ( 93.1.25) 93, 22,, RSOI/FE -2, 3 26 2 3 2 : 03.7.29. / 3 : 03.10.11., RSOI/FE 3 24, 4, 4 8 RSOI/FE 3 28-31 4, 4 21 110

한 미연합군사연습에대한북한의대응분석 : 군사적위협변수의재검토 () 79 (3.1-3.17) 80 (3.1-3.30) 84 (2.1-4.30) 89 (1.27-4.26) 90 (1.26-4.25) 91 (1.24-4.23) 97 RSOI (4.8-4.21) 00 UFL (8.21-9.1) 02 UFL (8.19-8.30) 03 UFL (8.18-8.29) 05 UFL (8.22-9.2) 07 RSOI/FE (3.25-3.31) 09 UFG (8.71-8.27) 13 UFG (8.19-8.30) 14 KR/FE (2.24-4.18) < 부록 6-2> 한 미연합군사연습기간남북대화진행사례 30) 1 : 79.2.27 2 : 79.3.5 3 : 79.3.9 4 : 79.3.12 3 : 80.3.4 4 : 80.3.18 5 : 80.4.1 6 : 80.4.18 23 LA 1 : 84.4.9 1 : 89.2.8 2 : 89.3.2 1 : 89.3.9 2 : 89.3.28 6 : 90.1.31 3 : 91.1.30 41 4 : 91.2.12 6 1 : 91.2.21 1 : 91.2.22 2 : 91.2.26 2 : 91.2.27 4 4 : 97.4.16-21 2 : 00.8.29-9.1 1 : 02.8.17-19 2 : 02.8.26-28 2 : 02.8.27-30 6 : 03.8.26-28 6 : 03.8.21-22 6 : 05.8.23-25 1 : 05.8.24-27 : 07.3.30 10 : 09.8.26-28 11 : 13.8.23 1 : 14.03.13 30), 12~77 (1976~2015);. (1993). pp. 171-183. 111