3 Keith Wade Azad Zangana Craig Botham %, y/y z-score Recession G7 Indu

Similar documents
Defend


[<1107><1169><11AB><1106><116E><11AB>] 2015<1102><1167><11AB> 7<110B><116F><11AF><1112><1169>-<110E><116C><110C><1169><11BC>.pdf


Vol.266 C O N T E N T S M O N T H L Y P U B L I C F I N A N C E F O R U M

Main Title

1 (%) Composite leading index OECD EM big

untitled

이머징마켓 동향 글로벌 이머징마켓 시장 동향 인도 시장: 센섹스지수는 장중 강세를 이어갔으나 마감 직전에 급락세로 전환해 6거래일 연속 약세를 보였 다. 주간단위로는 2주째 하락했고 하락폭도 크게 확대됐다. 정부가 재정적자 통제 목표를 달성하지 못

±×¸°¸®Æ÷Æ® ³»Áö5Â÷

Microsoft Word - Week Ahead_Economy.docx

기획7.hwp

Microsoft Word K_01_01.docx

슬라이드 1

멀티에셋: 채권 대비 주식 비중확대 = + ++ 주식 원자재 부동산(REITs) 채권 현금 비중확대: 주식에 대해 1년째 비중확대를 취하고 있습니다. 지난 월 약세 기간에 포지 션을 대규모 비중확대로 복귀시켰습니다. 미 연준의 양적완화는 호재이며, 밸류에이션

212년 하반기 금리전망 및 채권투자전략 그림 1 주요국 국채1년 금리 추이 (%) Spain Italy Korea Malaysia China Australia US UK Germany Japan 자료:

2월1일자.hwp


IDP www idp or kr IDP 정책연구 한국경제의구조적문제와개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies

, Analyst, , Table of contents 2

untitled

untitled

Vol.256 C O N T E N T S M O N T H L Y P U B L I C F I N A N C E F O R U M

3542 KS Figure 1 원/엔 환율 추이 Figure 2 라인 2Q ~ 3Q15 매출 breakdown (KRW/JPY) (KRW bn) 3 25 Total: 229 Total: FX (+9%

DV690-N_KOR_ indd

<465441C8B0BFEBC1F6BFF8BCBEC5CDC8ABBAB8C6D4C7C3B8B E696E6464>


지역별 주식형 자금 유출입 (단위: 백만달러, 주중 증감) All Fund Totals 2, ,99 4,95 Emerging Market Fund Totals -2,682-3,


, Analyst, , Figure 1 통신사가입자추이 ( 명, 000) 60,000 LG U+ KT SKT 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 자료 : MSIP. 미래에셋증권리서치센터

목 차


Microsoft Word K_01_01.docx

09김정식.PDF

Microsoft Word strategy weekly

歯3일_.PDF

Microsoft Word - 09년 2월 경제동향.doc

C.PÀÛ¾÷



Microsoft Word _Greece

Microsoft Word - retail_ doc


06_À̼º»ó_0929

한국어교재_중급1-앞-인쇄용.indd

untitled

펀드 Mission 정량적 & 정성적 펀드분석을 바탕으로 저평가된 자산을 찾고 장기관점에서 안정적으로 시장을 outperform할 수 있는 좋은 펀드 를 발굴 및 제공하여 고객자산 증대에 기여함을 최고의 가치로 한다 펀드 Expert Head of 펀드 Head of

Figure 1 P/B valuation Element Note Sustainable COE (%) Risk-free 2.8%; beta 0.9; risk premium 6.1% 8.3 Sustainable ROE (%) 3-year average (2015~2017)

Microsoft Word - MacroVision_121105_.doc

- 2 -


CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAK REPUBLIC ANGOLA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN BAHRAIN BOTSWANA BULGARIA CROATIA CYPRUS DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GEORGIA GREECE HUNGARY ICELA

CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAK REPUBLIC ANGOLA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN BAHRAIN BOTSWANA BULGARIA CROATIA CYPRUS DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GEORGIA GREECE HUNGARY ICELA

µðÇÃÇ¥Áö±¤°í´Ü¸é

목차 ⅰ ⅲ ⅳ Abstract v Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ i

HyundaiElevator AR _kor.pdf

Microsoft Word K_01_02.docx

Microsoft Word - Macro doc

공급 에는 권역에 두개의 프라임 오피스가 준공 되었다. 청진구역 2,3지구에는 광화문 D타워가 준공되어 대림에서 약 50%를 사용하며 나머지 50%는 임대마케팅을 진행 중이다. 메트로타워는 GS건설의 사옥에서 매각 이후 2013년 4분기에 리모델링을 시작하여, 에 완공

공급 에는 3권역 내에 준공된 프라임 오피스가 없었다. 4분기에는 3개동의 프라임 오피스가 신규로 준공 될 예정이다.(사옥1개동, 임대용 오피스 2개동) 수요와 공실률 2014년 10월 한국은행이 발표한 자료에 따르면 한국의 2014년 경제성장률 예측치는 3.5%로 지

Microsoft PowerPoint - F_ 경제전망_편.pptx [읽기 전용]

182 동북아역사논총 42호 금융정책이 조선에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지를 살펴보고자 한다. 일제 대외금융 정책의 기본원칙은 각 식민지와 점령지마다 별도의 발권은행을 수립하여 일본 은행권이 아닌 각 지역 통화를 발행케 한 점에 있다. 이들 통화는 일본은행권 과 等 價 로 연

(..).pdf

Microsoft Word _김형준_동부책략_final.doc

, Analyst, , , Figure 1 우리은행 12 개월 forward P/B 및 업종 대비 할증(할인) 추이, NPL 비율 추이

해외투자내지01(중국)

< D303420C1D6BFE4B1B9C0C720C0A7BEC8C8AD2E687770>

Microsoft Word - R 선관위 최종 보고서(완성본).docx

00내지1번2번

Vol.257 C O N T E N T S M O N T H L Y P U B L I C F I N A N C E F O R U M

Microsoft Word Hanwha Daily_New.doc

에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 95~118 학술 탄소은행제의가정용전력수요절감효과 분석 1) 2) 3) * ** *** 95

Microsoft Word K_01_02.docx

에너지경제연구제 16 권제 1 호 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 16, Number 1, March 2017 : pp. 35~55 학술 전력시장가격에대한역사적요인분해 * 35

+Z _CL_USB.indd

, Analyst, , Table of contents Executive summary 3 Investment thesis Deal tracker 44 Compan

Microsoft Word K_01_07.docx

(Microsoft Word \263\342_2\272\320\261\342_\303\326\303\321\272\273)

Microsoft PowerPoint H Outlook_201909_동성코퍼레이션.pptx [읽기 전용]

untitled

2011´ëÇпø2µµ 24p_0628

미리보는 216 년 미국 대선 (1) 극과 극 조연주 ( ) 급진적 보수, 급진적 진보 공약이 대중의 지지률 얻어 극과 극으로 치닫는 216 년 미국 대선 216년에는 미국 대선 이벤트에 주목해야 된다. 이는 미국 대선이 흔들리는 세계 경제를 바로 잡아

, Analyst, , , Table of contents 2

Diapositive 1

Sovereign debt concerns mask Asian strength

Contents Summary 2012년 전망 Top pick 내수 환경 점검 수출 환경 점검 R&D 모멘텀 점검 2

Microsoft Word Morning Brief 표지.doc


歯목차.PDF

1. 펀드의 개요 3 2. 운용경과 및 수익률 현황 3 3. 자산현황 5 4. 투자운용전문인력 현황 6 5. 비용현황 7 6. 투자자산매매내역 8 <참고 - 펀드용어정리> 9

untitled

0표지.indd

Microsoft Word - 편의점 _EDITING_f_f.docx_dhlEdFwwLcZVJtWeSWpK

레이아웃 1

[Nebulas] Non-tech Whitepaper_KR_Final(1).pages

CDP_Korean-00

SEC_AR_2011_K.pdf

Microsoft Word _1

오세경-제15-29호.hwp

Microsoft Word _6

Transcription:

.

3 Keith Wade Azad Zangana Craig Botham %, y/y z-score 10 2 5 1 0 0-5 -1-10 -2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Recession G7 Industrial production Global activity indicator, rhs Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders Economics Group, 25 October 2017. 2

z-score 2 0-2 -4-6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Recession US (ISM) Europe (BNB) Japan (Shoko Chukin) 3

y/y, % 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Real private non-residential investment Durable goods orders Average contribution of total private investment to GDP, % 1.4 Q4 1970 Q4 1973 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Q3 1980 Q3 1981 Q1 1975 Q1 1980 Q1 1991 Q1 2001 Q2 1958 Q2 1960 Q4 1982 Q3 1990 Q1 1961 - Q4 1969 Q2 1954 - Q3 1957 Q2 2009 present Q3 2001 Q3 2007 0.2 0.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 Number of quarters from trough to peak 4

ECI wage growth, y/y % 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Unemployment rate, % Q2 2003 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2107 Q3 2017 unemployment 1 5

6

Involuntary part-time employment share (% point difference relative to 2007) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Median 7

8

Individual poll and 5-poll moving averages 40 35 30 25 20 15 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Socialist Democrats (SPÖ ) People's Party (Ö VP) Freedom Party (FPÖ ) 9

Extremadura Melilla Andalucía Castilla - La Mancha Murcia region Ceuta Canarias Asturias Valenciana Galicia Cantabria Castilla and León Rioja Balears, Islands Aragón Catalolnia Navarra País Vasco Madrid % of national 0k 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k 35k 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Population Nominal GDP GDP per capita Ceuta + Melilla Extremadura Asturias Castilla & León Canarias Castilla - La Mancha Galicia Andalucía Cantabria País Vasco Aragón Rioja Murcia Region Navarra Comunitat Valenciana Catalonia Balears Islands Madrid -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% - 30bn - 20bn - 10bn 0bn 10bn 20bn Budget contribution, bot % of GDP, top 10

11

12

13

14

2 Dornbusch, R., Park, Y., and Claessens, S., Contagion: How it spreads and how it can be stopped? World Bank Research Observer, vol. 15, no. 2 (August 2000), pp. 177 97. 15

12% 8% 2% 8% Brazil China India Indonesia 6% 3% 3% 2% 15% 2% 9% 30% Korea Mexico S Africa Thailand Malaysia Russia Taiwan Other 16

EM equities, average pairwise correlation coefficient 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 In crisis periods* Non-crisis Pre-GFC (2002-06) Post-GFC (2011 17) EM equities, average pairwise correlation coefficient 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 BRL CLP MYR THB ZAR IDR KRW MXN INR PHP CZK RUB CNY TWD PLN Non-crisis Crisis 17

EM exports as share of total, by destination 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 China Asia ex China LatAm EM Europe Other Intra EM 18

Share of EM ex China GDP Share of Chinese GDP 20% 70% 18% 60% 16% 14% 50% 12% 40% 10% 8% 30% 6% 20% 4% 2% 10% 0% 0% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Liabilities to EM ex China Claims on EM ex China Liabilities to China Claims on China 3 Forbes, K., Rigobon, R., Measuring Contagion: Conceptual and Empirical Issues International Financial Contagion, ed. by Claessens, S., and Forbes, K., 2001. 19

20

21

22

Contributions to World GDP growth (y/y), % 6 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.9 Forecast 5 3.9 3.5 4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 3 2.3 2 1 0-1 -0.7-2 -3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 US Europe Japan Rest of advanced BRICS Rest of emerging World 23

Real GDP y/y% Wt (%) 2016 2017 Prev. Consensus 2018 Prev. Consensus World 100 2.6 3.0 (3.0) 3.2 3.0 (3.0) 3.1 Advanced* 62.8 1.6 2.0 (1.9) 2.1 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 US 27.1 1.5 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 2.0 (2.2) 2.4 Eurozone 17.4 1.7 2.1 (1.8) 2.2 1.9 (1.8) 1.8 Germany 5.1 1.8 2.1 (1.8) 2.0 2.0 (1.9) 1.9 UK 3.8 1.8 1.6 (1.6) 1.6 1.6 (1.6) 1.4 Japan 7.2 1.0 1.6 (1.6) 1.6 1.5 (1.3) 1.2 Total Emerging** 37.2 4.2 4.8 (4.7) 4.9 4.8 (4.7) 4.9 BRICs 24.2 5.2 5.6 (5.5) 5.7 5.6 (5.5) 5.8 China 16.4 6.7 6.7 (6.6) 6.8 6.3 (6.2) 6.4 Inflation CPI y/y% Wt (%) 2016 2017 Prev. Consensus 2018 Prev. Consensus World 100 2.0 2.3 (2.4) 2.2 2.2 (2.3) 2.2 Advanced* 62.8 0.7 1.6 (1.8) 1.7 1.4 (1.4) 1.6 US 27.1 1.3 1.9 (2.0) 2.1 1.9 (1.9) 2.0 Eurozone 17.4 0.2 1.5 (1.6) 1.5 1.1 (1.1) 1.3 Germany 5.1 0.4 1.7 (1.9) 1.7 1.5 (1.3) 1.6 UK 3.8 0.7 2.6 (2.8) 2.7 2.3 (2.2) 2.6 Japan 7.2-0.1 0.5 (0.7) 0.4 1.0 (1.1) 0.7 Total Emerging** 37.2 4.1 3.3 (3.5) 3.2 3.7 (3.8) 3.2 BRICs 24.2 3.5 2.4 (2.7) 2.2 3.0 (3.1) 2.7 China 16.4 2.0 1.8 (2.0) 1.6 2.3 (2.3) 1.9 Interest rates % (Month of Dec) Current 2016 2017 Prev. Market 2018 Prev. Market US 1.25 0.75 1.50 (1.25) 1.52 2.00 (2.00) 1.94 UK 0.25 0.25 0.50 (0.25) 0.54 0.50 (0.25) 0.88 Eurozone (Refi) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) -0.33 Eurozone (Depo) -0.40-0.40-0.40 (-0.40) -0.40 (-0.40) -0.26 Japan -0.10-0.10-0.10 (-0.10) 0.07-0.10 (-0.10) 0.08 China 4.35 4.35 4.35 (4.35) - 4.35 (3.50) - Other monetary policy (Over year or by Dec) Current 2016 2017 Prev. 2018 Prev. US QE ($Bn) 4463 4451 4433 (4450) 4013 (4050) EZ QE ( Bn) 1856 1481 2216 (2236) 2546 (2566) UK QE ( Bn) 435 423 444 (444) 445 (445) JP QE ( Tn) 502 476 545 (553) 645 (653) China RRR (%) 17.00 17.00 17.00 16.50 16.00 16.00 Key variables FX (Month of Dec) Current 2016 2017 Prev. Y/Y(%) 2018 Prev. Y/Y(%) USD/GBP 1.31 1.24 1.32 (1.32) 6.8 1.28 (1.30) -3.0 USD/EUR 1.16 1.05 1.19 (1.15) 12.8 1.15 (1.12) -3.4 JPY/USD 113.8 116.6 110 (108) -5.7 112 (110) 1.8 GBP/EUR 0.88 0.85 0.90 (0.87) 5.6 0.90 (0.86) -0.3 RMB/USD 6.65 6.95 6.90 (7.05) -0.7 7.05 (7.40) 2.2 Commodities (over year) Brent Crude 60.3 45.9 51.6 (52.1) 12.5 52.5 (51.8) 1.7 Source: Schroders, Thomson Datastream, Consensus Economics, October 2017 Consensus inflation numbers for Emerging Markets is for end of period, and is not directly comparable. Market data as at 27/10/2017 Previous forecast refers to May 2017, except for BoE forecast, which was updated in September, and Fed, updated in October. * Advanced markets: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Euro area, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States. ** Emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Russia, Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania. 24

2017 2018 % 7 % 7 6 5 EM Asia 6 5 EM Asia EM 4 EM 4 Pac ex Jap 3 2 US Eurozone 1 Japan UK 0 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Pac ex Jap US Eurozone UK Japan 2017 2018 % 4 % 4 3 2 1 Pac ex Jap EM Asia EM UK US Eurozone Japan 3 2 1 EM UK EM Asia Pac ex Jap US Eurozone Japan 0 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors. The views and opinions contained herein are those of Schroder Investments Management s Economics team, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or any solicitation of any offer to buy securities or any other instrument described in this document. The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored. 25

투자유의문구 본자료에포함된정보는슈로더가제공하는특정상품이나서비스의매입또는매도제의나투자권유를위하여작성된것이아니며별도의사전통지없이언제든지수정될수있습니다. 본자료는사전동의없이가공또는제 3 자에게유포, 출판, 복사또는배포될수없으며, 어떠한투자결정도본정보에의존하여서는안됩니다. 본자료의어떤내용도투자, 세금, 법률, 여타전문상담, 또는특정한사실및문제와관련된자문으로해석되어서는아니됩니다. 본자료는단순정보제공을목적으로작성되었으며고객의특정투자목적, 재정상태와특정한요구를반영하고있지않습니다. 슈로더금융투자상품을구입하고자하는경우금융관련전문가와상담하시기바라며전문가의상담을구하지않을경우, 펀드에투자하시기전에선택한금융투자상품이본인에게적합한지여부를반드시고려하시기바랍니다. 본자료의정보는해당공표일기준으로가능한정확한자료라고할수있으나, 슈로더는, 구체적으로표시된것이나암시된것을불문하고, 모든제공된자료의정확성, 적정성, 또는완결성을보증하지는않습니다. 또한슈로더, 슈로더계열사, 또는슈로더및그계열사의임직원은해당정보의오류및누락으로인한어떠한책임 ( 제 3 자책임포함 ) 도부담하지않습니다. 본상품은예금자보호법에따라예금보험공사가보호하지않습니다. 금융투자상품은운용결과에따라투자원금의손실이발생할수있으며그손실은투자자에게귀속됩니다. 가입전에투자대상, 투자위험, 환매방법, 보수및수수료등에관하여투자설명서또는간이투자설명서를반드시읽어보시기바랍니다. 외화자산은환율변동에따라자산가치가변동되거나원금손실이발생할수있습니다. 투자대상국가의시장, 정치및경제상황및과세제도변동등에따른위험으로자산가치의손실이발생할수있습니다. 과거의운용실적이나전망이미래의수익을보장하지않습니다. Schroder Investment Management Limited 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA, United Kingdom Tel: + 44(0) 20 7658 6000 schroders.com @Schroders Important information: This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document where taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Schroders has expressed its own views in this document and these may change. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored. EU04102.