FUTURES MARKET OUTLOOK&STRATEGY SAMSUNG FUTURES MONTHLY No. 151 / 216. 7. 27 8 BOJ, Go Beyond?

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1 Is Inflation Too Low? Depends How You Look at It, Cornor Sen, 216.7.22, Bloomberg 16

8 1 CITI ESI() 7 6 4 35 2-35 -7 16Y.1 16Y.3 16Y.5 16Y.7 17

8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% Switzerland Sweden Bulgaria Euro zone Czech Rep. Denmark Singapore Israel Japan Canada Norway U.K. U.S. Hong Kong Hungary Oman U.A.E. South Korea Taiwan Poland Thailand Australia Romania Kuwait Saudi Arabia Bahrain Morocco New Zealand Croatia Malaysia Philippines Chile Jordan Mexico Peru China Iceland India Indonesia 18

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() 15 125 11 12 97 115 93 89 /() 11 85 15 15/12 16/1 16/3 16/4 16/6 (%) (%) -5-3 -1 1 3 5-5 -3-1 1 3 5 24

(%) 1 18 1() 1() 15 (%) 15 13 (215.1 =1) 13 12 5 12 9 11 9 7 11 1 9 6 5 8 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 25

15 11 () () 6 64 97 93 89 68 72 76 85 8 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 16Y.5 26

-2-4 -6-8 -1 Y (% of GDP) 3Y 6Y 9Y 12Y 15Y () 35 28 21 14 7 14/9 15/2 15/7 15/12 16/5 27

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(216.1.1 =1) 15 12 99 96 93 USD/CNY 55 49 43 37 31 EMBI spread USD/CNY() () 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 9 16Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.7 25 6 14Y.1 14Y.8 15Y.2 15Y.9 16Y.4 29

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12 1 8 6 4 2 ( ) 13Y.6 14Y.5 15Y.4 16Y.3 () 2 1-1 -2-3 35

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5% 4% 42.6% 3% 25.2% 28.1% 2% 1% % 12.4% 2.5% 16.% 5.8%.1% 4.2% 1.4% 5.7% 6.5% 18.8% 1.9% 12.7% 16.9% 15.2% 11.8% -1% -2% -12.4% -1.7% -7.3% RBOB -1.4% -2.7% -2.8% -4.% -5.4% -6.8% -8.6% -11.7% -15.6% 37

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4 () Others Antwerp 35 Busan Johor New Orleans 3 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.8 15Y.1 15Y.12 16Y.2 16Y.4 16Y.6 2, Non-Commercial(L) 8, 1, LME Price(R) 7, -1, 6, -2, -3, 5, -4, -5, 4, 13Y.8 14Y.2 14Y.8 15Y.2 15Y.8 16Y.2 39

5 Product Net Export 3 45 Primary Output(R) 28 4 26 35 24 3 22 25 2 2 15 18 1 16 13Y.8 14Y.2 14Y.8 15Y.2 15Y.8 16Y.2 4

6 Concentrate Imports 7 7 6 5 Refined Output 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 1-1 1-2 1-3 13Y.6 13Y.12 14Y.6 14Y.12 15Y.6 15Y.12 16Y.6 1Y.8 11Y.8 12Y.8 13Y.8 14Y.8 15Y.8 41

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55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 () 5 12Y.8 13Y.8 14Y.8 15Y.8 ($/) 23, 21, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 5, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 13Y.12 14Y.6 14Y.12 15Y.6 15Y.12 16Y.6 43

6 15M-3M 2 4 3M-Cash(R) 1 2-1 -2-2 -4-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-6 15Y.8 15Y.11 16Y.2 16Y.5-4 15Y.7 15Y.1 16Y.1 16Y.4-3 6 15M-3M 3 5 3M-Cash(R) 25 4 2 15 3 1 2 5 1-5 -1-1 15Y.8 15Y.11 16Y.2 16Y.5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 15Y.8 15Y.11 16Y.2 16Y.5 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 16 5 14 45 12 4 35 1 3 8 25 6 2 4 15M-3M 15 1 2 3M-Cash(R) 5 15Y.8 15Y.11 16Y.2 16Y.5 5-5 -1-15 -5-2 -1-25 -3-15 -35 15M-3M -2-4 3M-Cash(R) -45-25 15Y.8 15Y.11 16Y.2 16Y.5 44

18 1 35 (%) 1 16 95 3 14 95 12 9 25 1 2 9 85 8 15 85 6 8 1 4 WTI 75 8 2 Oil Rig 5 7 75 14Y.3 14Y.9 15Y.3 15Y.9 16Y.3 14Y.7 15Y.1 15Y.7 16Y.1 16Y.7 45

45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 216 1,5 215 1, 5 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 46

1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,2 1,2 1, 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 8 6 4 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 75 7 65 6 55 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 47

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14 13 $/oz 22 2 $/oz 12 18 16 11 14 1 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 12 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 1 8 6 4 2 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.6 11 1 9 8 7 6 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 29 28 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 35 3 6 5 $ 25 2 15 4 3 2 1 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 1 15Y.7 15Y.11 16Y.3 16Y.7 49

월간금융시장동향 채권 Korea United States Europe (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 8 전월말 ( 우 ) 1.6 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 4 전월말 ( 우 ) 2 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 2 전월말 ( 우 ) US 1Y Yield & MOVE Index (bp) MOVE INDEX US 1Y( 우 ) (%) 85 2 5 2-1 -4 1.4 1.2 2-2 1.6 1.2.8.4 1-1 -.3 -.6 8 75 7 65 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2-7 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 1-4 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -2 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -.9 6 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 1 주식 Advanced Markets Emerging Markets S&P5 & VIX Index 8% 6% 7.% 5.9% 5.% 15% 1% 1.2% 2,2 2,1 S&P5 VIX( 우 ) 3 25 4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 5% 5.1% 3.5% 2.8% 2.1% 2, 2 2% % -.7% 1,9 15 % 일본호주유로존영국캐나다미국 -5% 브라질인니인도한국중국러시아 1,8 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 1 환율 Advanced Markets 달러대비월간변동률 2% 1.1% 1% % -1% -.8% -.8% -.9% -2% -1.5% -2.1% -3% 달러지수 AUD CAD EUR GBP JPY Emerging Markets 달러대비월간변동률 4% 1.5%.6%.5% % -.3% -1.9% -4% -3.3% KRW IDR INR CNY BRL RUB 원자재 EUR/USD & EUR 3M Volatility (%) EUR/USD 변동성3M EUR/USD( 우 ) ($) 12 1.16 11 1.14 1 1.12 9 1.1 8 1.8 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 Energy/Agriculture Non-Ferrous Metal CRB Index % -2% -4% 12% 8% 9.6% 5.9% 5.6% 2 19 CRB Index -6% -8% -1% -6.3% -8.2% -8.4% 4% % 1.8%.1% 18 17-12% -14% -1.7% -12.9% -4% -3.5% 16-16% -15.% 밀 옥수수천연가스브렌트 WTI 대두 -8% 니켈아연은구리금알루미늄 15 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 16Y.7 국내외국인현 / 선물순매수동향 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 현물 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 2 선물 ( 억원 ) 채권현물 ( 계약 ) 3 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) 1 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) USD 선물 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 15, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, - 4 2 - -2 - -2, -4, - 5 일누적 2 일누적 - 5 일누적 2 일누적 - -1, 5일누적 2일누적 5 일누적 2 일누적 -4 5 일누적 2 일누적 -6, 5 일누적 2 일누적 216년 7월 27일수요일기준작성