Short- term Effect of Air Pollution on Respiratory Disease in Seoul : A Case- Crossover Design 2000 8
. 2000 8
.. 3... 2000 7
. 1 1. 1 2. 3 3. 8 4. 12. 13 1. 13 2. 15. 17 1. 17 2. 24. 36 1. 36 2. 41. 45 46 55
T able 1. Distribution of daily emergency respiratory disease visits, 24hr mean s of air pollutant s, temper ature and r elative humidity 18 T able 2. Pearson Correlation Coefficients for 24hr means of air pollutants 19 T able 3. Pear son Corr elation Coefficient s for 24hr maxium of air pollutants 20 T able 4. Pearson Correlation Coefficients for 8hr means of air pollutants 20 T able 5. Relative risk at one pollutant model of O3, SO2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10 with various lag times 26 T able 6. Relative risk at tw o pollutant s m odel of O3, SO2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM10 with variou s lag times using 24hr mean values 27 T able 7. Relative risk at tw o pollutant s m odel of O3, SO2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM10 with variou s lag times using 24hr maximum values 28 T able 8. Relative risk at tw o pollutant s m odel of O3, SO2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10 with various lag times using 8hr mean values 29 T able 9. Relative risk at one pollutants model of retrospective selection with variou s lag times using 24hr mean values 30 T able 10. Relative risk at one pollutant s model of pr ospectiv e selection with variou s lag times using 24hr mean values 31 T able 11. Relative risk at one pollutants model of retrospective selection with variou s lag times using 24hr max values 32 T able 12. Relative risk at one pollutant s model of pr ospectiv e selection with various lag times u sing 24hr m ax values 33 T able 13. Relative risk at one pollutants model of retrospective selection with variou s lag times using 8hr mean values 343 T able 14. Relative risk at one pollutant s model of pr ospectiv e selection with variou s lag times using 8hr mean values 35
Figur e 1. Contr ol selection method 11 Figur e 2. Daily count s of r espir atory emer gency visit s 17 Figur e 3. Daily mean O3 concentr ation 21 Figur e 4. Daily mean SO2 concentration 22 Figur e 5. Daily mean CO concentr ation 22 Figur e 6. Daily mean NO2 concentration 23 Figur e 7. Daily mean T SP concentr ation 23 Figur e 8. Daily mean PM10 concentr ation 24
,.. 1995 11 1 1996 10 31. - 7, 14, 21 6. 1, 2, 3 1.,,,. 6 30ppb 24 1 1.91(95%CI = 1.78-2.05). 24 O3 SO2, O3 NO2, O3 CO, O3 T SP, O3 PM 10 1 - i -
1.87(95%CI=1.73-2.03)... :,,,, - ii -
. 1. 1930 12 Meuse vally, 1948 10 Donora, 1952 12 London, 1955 8 Los Angeles. (,,, ),, (Logan, 1953;, 1989;, 1997).,,,,,, (, ).,,,,,,,,,,,,, - 1 -
(, 1997)... (Lippmann, 1989).,.,..,.,.,.,. - 2 -
. 2. (1) (smog ),.,.,. (NOx ). (NOx ) (HC), HC NOx.(, 1991). 20-30ppb,, 13,000ppb, 1,500-2,000ppb 2, 2,500ppb,, (Dix, 1981).,. Bates (1983) 1, - 3 -
. Ponka (1991), 65 50 / 1.244 (Schw artz, 1993). White (1994) 1990 6 8 1-16 0.11ppm 37%. 1994 65 (Schw artz, 1994). Romieu (1995),. Stieb (1996) 1984 1992. 16 1981 1991 720,519 30ppb 1.024-1.043 (Burmett, 1997). 12 (O3, NO2, SO2, PM 10 ) 10 / (W ong, 1999). - 4 -
(1999) 1994 1997 200 General Additive Poisson Model 100ppb 1.30-1.62. (2000),,. 1970 1979 LA,, (Kimney, 1991). 1987 1992,, 10 percentile 90 percentile 3.5% (95% 1.7%- 5.3%), 3.5% (95% 1.04%- 6.1%), 5.4% (95% 0.4%- 10.7%) (Ander son, 1996). (1999),,, (, 1998). (1999) General Estimating Equation. - 5 -
(2), (SOX ) 1.,. 2.5 2.5. 1987 EPA (, T SP ) 10 (PM 10 ). PM 10, 1995 PM 10. Pennsylvania Philadelphia T SP 100 / 7% (95% CI = 1.04-1.10), 100 / 5%. T SP (Schw artz, 1992). T SP 100 / 6% (95% CI = 1.05-1.07) (Schwartz, 1994) 65 PM 10 (Saldiva, 1995)., - 6 -
(T ouloumi, 1994). 6 1.26(95% CI = 1.08-1.47), (Dockery, 1993).. Ohio. T SP (24 ) 100 / 3% (Samet, 1981). 5 (1985-1989), (Sunyer, 1993). Ponka (1994) 1987 3,, SO2 NO2. (1998) PM 10, (1997),,. (1994),,. (3) - 7 -
(NO) (NO2 ) (NOx ). NO2 (hydrocarbon ) 2..,,,.. (4).,.,,,. carboxy hemoglobin (COHb).. - 8 -
200. 3. (Cas e - c ro s s ove r de s ig n) 1 ) 1991 Maclure the Onset study" - - (case- crossover design ) (Maclure, 1991).,,,,, (Mittleman, 1995) 2 ) - (control period). (1) - 9 -
(Unidirectional Pair - matched and multiple int erv al approach) 2, ( ) ( ). - 1:1 -. 1 2, 4,, 1, 1:N -. (2) (Bidirectional Case- crossover design ) Navidi(1998) RR ( ),.. - 10 -
Fig 1. Contr ol selection m ethod - 11 -
4. 1.. 2.,., (medical utilization data of unscheduled visit by respiratory diseases). - 12 -
. 1. ( ) 20 ( ),,,, 5, (telementry system, T MS ) (real time). 1995 1996. 20.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,, 9 10 (PM 10 ). 20. 20 24. - 13 -
. 24 24, 9 5 8 8. (2) 1. 1.5m. 3. (3).,,,, /,,,,,. (medical utilization data of unscheduled visit by respiratory diseases). 1996,,.,, - 14 -
,.. ICD- 10 code. J20; J21; J40; J41; J42; J43; J44; J45; J46; J96; J99; 1996, 1995 1996 1995 11 1 1996 10 31. 1996 30,898. 1995 11 1 1996 10 31 27,952., 2, 18,959. 2.. - 15 -
,. (Lee, 1999). Navidi(1998) (bidirectional control period selection ), 7, 14, 21 6. 7 14, 21 1. -.. 24, 24, 8 6 1 (one pollutant model) 6 2 (tw o pollutants model).., 24, 24, 8 1, 2, 3.,,, 30ppb,, 30 /. - 16 -
. 1. 1995 11 1 1996 10 31 81 (T able 1). 1 10-12 3-5.(Figure. 2.) F igure 2. Daily count s of respiratory em ergen cy visit s,,,,, 15.6ppb, 13.9ppb, 32.9ppb, 12.6ppb, 86.4 /, 76.4. /, 12.7, 64.5%.,, - 17 -
(T able 1). T able 1. Distribution of em erg ency respirat ory disease v isit s, 24hr m ean s of air V ariable pollut ant s, t em perature an d relativ e hum idity M ean St andard deviation Min 1). P ercentile 25th 50th 75th M ax 2 ). Em erg ency visit s 81.4 71.6 9 36 58 100 536 O3 (ppb ) 15.6 7.2 3.7 9.5 14.8 20.8 41.1 S O2 (ppb ) 13.9 7.3 3.7 8.1 12.0 18.0 36.9 NO2 (ppb ) 32.9 9.4 12.1 25.9 31.8 39.5 57.0 CO (ppb ) 12.6 4.6 6.3 9.6 11.2 13.9 33.8 T SP ( / ) 86.4 38.5 20.3 58.3 82.6 109.4 265.2 PM 10 ( / ) 73.4 31.7 22.3 50.4 70.0 90.0 236.9 T emperature ( ) 12.7 6.7-13.6 5.3 14.6 22.7 31.3 Relativ e hum idity (% ) 64.5 20.8 30.3 54.8. 65.9 74.3 93.2 1) Min. : m inim um 2) M ax. : m axim um T able 2, 3, 4 (O3, SO2, CO, NO2, T SP, PM 10 ).. 24-0.01, - 0.50.,,. - 18 -
- 0.5, - 0.2. 24-0.06, 0.07. 24 8. T able 2. Pearson Correlation Coefficients for 24hr means of air pollutants V ariable O3 S O2 NO2 CO T SP PM 10 T emperature Hum idity O3 1-0.508-0.282 * - 0.563 * - 0.137-0.168 0.489 * - 0.004 S O2 1 0.755 0.850 0.639 0.681-0.504-0.236 NO2 1 0.742 0.776 0.773-0.054 0.009 CO 1 0.727 0.742-0.315 0.010 T SP 1 0.972 0.006 0.149 PM 10 1-0.057 0.128 T em perature 1 0.583 Hum idity 1 P - v alue 0.0001 P - v alue 0.005-19 -
T able 3. Pearson Correlation Coefficients for 24hr maxium of air pollutants V ariable O3 S O2 NO2 CO T SP PM 10 T em perature Hum idity O3 1-0.200-0.024-0.267-0.027-0.118 0.593-0.156 S O2 1 0.537 0.492 0.418 0.373-0.381-0.159 NO2 1 0.504 0.579 0.415-0.089-0.051 CO 1 0.439 0.314-0.192 0.031 T SP 1 0.544-0.064 0.070 PM 10 1-0.191 0.053 T emperature 1 0.583 Hum idity 1 P - v alu e 0.0001 P - v alu e 0.005 T able 4. Pearson Correlation Coefficients for 8hr means of air pollutants V ariable O3 S O2 NO2 CO T SP PM 10 T emperature Hum idity O3 1-0.397-0.214-0.495-0.096-0.120 0.586-0.116 S O2 1 0.752 0.849 0.731 0.765-0.488-0.179 NO2 1 0.759 0.774 0.781-0.071-0.118 CO 1 0.763 0.765-0.393 0.022 T SP 1 0.975-0.113 0.082 PM 10 1-0.157 0.050 T em perature 1 0.583 Hum idity 1 P - v alue 0.0001 P - v alue 0.005-20 -
11-2 3 5-7.(Figure. 3) F igure 3. Daily m ean O3 con centration 11-1 7-8 (Figure. 4), (Figure. 5). (Figure. 6), (Figure. 7) (Figure.8). - 21 -
F igure 4. Daily m ean S O2 concentration F igure 5. Daily m ean CO concentration - 22 -
F igure 6. Daily m ean NO2 con centration F igure 7. Daily m ean T SP concentration - 23 -
F igure 8. Daily m ean PM 10 con centration 2. 6,. 24, 8, 24. 1.. one pollutant model two pollutants model., 24 1 one pollutant model 1.910 1.008, (SO2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10) - 24 -
. T w o pollutant s model 24 O3 SO2, O3 NO2, O3 CO, O3 T SP O3 PM 10, 1 1.879(95%CI=1.739-2.031). 24 O3 SO2, O3 NO2, O3 CO, O3 T SP O3 PM 10 1 1.007 1.027, 2 3. SO2 CO CO ( 1.003 1.118). NO2 CO 3 CO 1.060(95%CI=1.033-1.087). T able 3. CO SO2 NO2 0.49, 0.50. 8 O3 SO2, O3 NO2, O3 CO, O3 T SP O3 PM 10 1 O3.. - 25 -
T able 5. Relativ e risk at on e pollut ant m odel of O3, S O2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10 w ith v ariou s lag tim es P ollut ant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 24hr m ean 1.910 (1.778-2.053) 1.327 (1.237-1.423) 1.634 (1.522-1.754) 24hr m ax 5 ) 1.008 (0.987-1.029) 0.922 (0.903-0.941) 0.922 (0.903-0.941) 8hr m ean 1.387 (1.328-1.449) 0.985 (0.944-1.029) 1.082 (1.036-1.130) S O2 1) 24hr m ean 0.777 (0.728-0.830) 0.617 (0.578-0.659) 0.590 (0.554-0.629) 24hr m ax 5 ) 0.935 (0.924-0.946) 0.931 (0.920-0.942) 0.909 (0.899-0.918) 8hr m ean 0.822 (0.775-0.872) 0.781 (0.737-0.828) 0.719 (0.679-0.760) 1) N O2 24hr m ean 0.764 (0.733-0.796) 0.706 (0.678-0.736) 0.687 (0.661-0.715) 24hr m ax 5 ) 0.927 (0.913-0.940) 0.905 (0.891-0.918) 0.908 (0.895-0.922) 8hr m ean 0.779 (0.752-0.808) 0.783 (0.756-0.811) 0.767 (0.741-0.793) CO 1 ) 24hr m ean 0.605 (0.550-0.667) 0.504 (0.459-0.554) 0.536 (0.490-0.586) 24hr m ax 5 ) 0.957 (0.934-0.980) 0.934 (0.912-0.957) 0.975 (0.952-0.997) 8hr m ean 0.619 (0.555-0.690) 0.667 (0.601-0.740) 0.589 (0.534-0.649) T SP 2 ) 24hr m ean 0.944 (0.934-0.954) 0.937 (0.927-0.946) 0.952 (0.943-0.962) 24hr m ax 5 ) 0.994 (0.991-0.996) 0.985 (0.982-0.987) 0.989 (0.986-0.991) 8hr m ean 0.957 (0.948-0.966) 0.953 (0.944-0.961) 0.959 (0.951-0.967) 2 ) PM 10 24hr m ean 0.944 (0.932-0.956) 0.943 (0.931-0.955) 0.962 (0.951-0.973) 24hr m ax 5 ) 0.995 (0.992-0.998) 0.993 (0.991-0.996) 0.992 (0.989-0.995) 8hr m ean 0.963 (0.953-0.974) 0.964 (0.954-0.974) 0.971 (0.961-0.980) 1) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the in crease of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : R elativ e Risk 4) CI : Confiden ce Interv al 5) m ax : M axim um - 26 -
T able 6. Relativ e risk at tw o pollut ant s m odel of O3, S O2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10 w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sin g 24hr m ean v alu es P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) (24hr m ean ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1.879 (1.739-2.031) 1.127 (1.045-1.214) 1.365 (1.265-1.474) S O2 0.961 (0.895-1.031) 0.640 (0.598-0.686) 0.653 (0.611-0.699) O3 1.737 (1.610-1.875) 1.117 (1.038-1.203) 1.327 (1.230-1.433) N O2 0.846 (0.810-0.884) 0.720 (0.690-0.752) 0.729 (0.698-0.760) O3 1.806 (1.669-1.954) 1.105 (1.024-1.193) 1.413 (1.307-1.527) CO 0.830 (0.748-0.922) 0.530 (0.479-0.587) 0.639 (0.579-0.704) O3 1.844 (1.715-1.983) 1.260 (1.173-1.352) 1.550 (1.442-1.667) T SP 0.953 (0.943-0.963) 0.941 (0.931-0.950) 0.963 (0.954-0.973) O3 1.857 (1.727-1.997) 1.277 (1.190-1.371) 1.588 (1.477-1.707) P M 10 0.955 (0.943-0.968) 0.948 (0.936-0.960) 0.976 (0.965-0.988) S O2 1.504 (1.327-1.704) 0.990 (0.869-1.127) 0.955 (0.839-1.086) N O2 0.613 (0.566-0.663) 0.710 (0.654-0.771) 0.705 (0.650-0.766) S O2 1.141 (1.009-1.289) 0.750 (0.662-0.849) 0.570 (0.506-0.642) CO 0.515 (0.430-0.616) 0.720 (0.601-0.862) 1.061 (0.896-1.256) S O2 1.010 (0.921-1.108) 0.681 (0.620-0.748) 0.537 (0.491-0.588) T SP 0.943 (0.929-0.957) 0.979 (0.965-0.993) 1.020 (1.006-1.034) S O2 0.921 (0.839-1.010) 0.574 (0.522-0.631) 0.450 (0.411-0.493) P M 10 0.954 (0.937-0.972) 1.019 (1.001-1.038) 1.072 (1.054-1.090) N O2 0.765 (0.714-0.820) 0.736 (0.687-0.788) 0.644 (0.601-0.690) CO 0.994 (0.847-1.165) 0.890 (0.761-1.042) 1.195 (1.026-1.392) N O2 0.800 (0.751-0.852) 0.699 (0.656-0.744) 0.594 (0.559-0.631) T SP 0.985 (0.969-1.000) 1.003 (0.988-1.019) 1.048 (1.033-1.063) N O2 0.747 (0.702-0.794) 0.624 (0.587-0.664) 0.536 (0.506-0.569) P M 10 1.009 (0.990-1.029) 1.051 (1.032-1.071) 1.103 (1.084-1.122) CO 0.804 (0.690-0.938) 0.568 (0.487-0.662) 0.471 (0.404-0.548) T SP 0.961 (0.945-0.977) 0.984 (0.967-1.000) 1.018 (1.001-1.034) CO 0.664 (0.570-0.772) 0.409 (0.351-0.476) 0.325 (0.279-0.378) P M 10 0.984 (0.965-1.004) 1.036 (1.015-1.057) 1.086 (1.064-1.108) 1) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the increase of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increa se of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Interv al - 27 -
T able 7. Relativ e risk at t w o pollut ant s m odel of O3, S O2, N O2, CO, T SP, PM 10 w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 24hr m ax im um v alu es P ollut ant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) (24hr m ax 5 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1.010 (0.989-1.031) 0.921 (0.902-0.941) 0.916 (0.897-0.935) S O2 0.935 (0.924-0.946) 0.931 (0.920-0.942) 0.907 (0.898-0.917) O3 1.027 (1.006-1.049) 0.941 (0.921-0.961) 0.934 (0.914-0.954) NO2 0.924 (0.910-0.938) 0.911 (0.897-0.925) 0.912 (0.899-0.926) O3 1.007 (0.986-1.028) 0.918 (0.898-0.937) 0.920 (0.901-0.940) CO 0.957 (0.934-0.981) 0.928 (0.906-0.951) 0.970 (0.948-0.993) O3 1.013 (0.992-1.034) 0.931 (0.911-0.951) 0.925 (0.905-0.945) T SP 0.994 (0.991-0.996) 0.986 (0.983-0.988) 0.989 (0.986-0.991) O3 1.010 (0.989-1.031) 0.924 (0.905-0.944) 0.921 (0.902-0.941) PM 10 0.995 (0.992-0.997) 0.994 (0.991-0.997) 0.992 (0.989-0.995) S O2 0.952 (0.939-0.965) 0.959 (0.946-0.973) 0.921 (0.909-0.933) NO2 0.958 (0.942-0.975) 0.930 (0.914-0.947) 0.966 (0.949-0.983) S O2 0.931 (0.920-0.943) 0.930 (0.918-0.943) 0.885 (0.874-0.896) CO 1.018 (0.991-1.046) 1.003 (0.976-1.031) 1.118 (1.088-1.148) S O2 0.936 (0.924-0.947) 0.949 (0.937-0.961) 0.913 (0.902-0.924) T SP 0.999 (0.997-1.002) 0.989 (0.987-0.992) 0.997 (0.995-1.000) S O2 0.936 (0.925-0.948) 0.934 (0.922-0.945) 0.907 (0.897-0.918) PM 10 0.998 (0.995-1.001) 0.998 (0.995-1.000) 1.001 (0.998-1.004) NO2 0.921 (0.906-0.937) 0.901 (0.886-0.917) 0.892 (0.877-0.907) CO 1.020 (0.993-1.048) 1.011 (0.985-1.039) 1.060 (1.033-1.087) NO2 0.920 (0.903-0.936) 0.928 (0.911-0.946) 0.918 (0.902-0.935) T SP 1.002 (0.999-1.006) 0.992 (0.989-0.995) 0.997 (0.994-1.000) NO2 0.928 (0.914-0.942) 0.906 (0.892-0.921) 0.910 (0.895-0.925) PM 10 0.999 (0.996-1.002) 0.999 (0.996-1.002) 0.999 (0.996-1.002) CO 0.978 (0.952-1.005) 1.000 (0.973-1.027) 1.032 (1.006-1.059) T SP 0.995 (0.992-0.998) 0.985 (0.982-0.988) 0.987 (0.984-0.990) CO 0.965 (0.941-0.989) 0.944 (0.921-0.968) 0.994 (0.970-1.019) PM 10 0.996 (0.993-0.998) 0.995 (0.992-0.998) 0.992 (0.989-0.995) l) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the increase of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for th e in crease of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Int erv al 5) m ax : m ax im um - 28 -
T able 8. Relativ e risk at tw o pollut ant s m odel of O3, S O2, NO2, CO, T SP, PM 10 w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 8hr m ean v alues P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) (8hr m ean ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1.369 (1.310-1.430) 0.964 (0.923-1.006) 1.042 (0.998-1.089) S O2 0.867 (0.817-0.920) 0.777 (0.733-0.824) 0.724 (0.684-0.767) O3 1.339 (1.281-1.400) 0.940 (0.900-0.982) 1.004 (0.960-1.050) NO2 0.806 (0.777-0.836) 0.777 (0.750-0.805) 0.767 (0.741-0.794) O3 1.346 (1.286-1.408) 0.939 (0.898-0.981) 1.010 (0.965-1.057) CO 0.749 (0.670-0.838) 0.641 (0.575-0.714) 0.593 (0.535-0.656) O3 1.404 (1.344-1.467) 0.990 (0.948-1.033) 1.071 (1.025-1.118) T SP 0.953 (0.945-0.962) 0.953 (0.944-0.961) 0.960 (0.951-0.968) O3 1.396 (1.336-1.458) 0.988 (0.946-1.031) 1.073 (1.028-1.121) PM 10 0.960 (0.950-0.971) 0.964 (0.954-0.974) 0.972 (0.962-0.981) S O2 1.531 (1.381-1.697) 1.363 (1.226-1.516) 1.158 (1.043-1.285) NO2 0.628 (0.589-0.669) 0.669 (0.627-0.714) 0.712 (0.668-0.758) S O2 1.048 (0.948-1.159) 0.830 (0.749-0.920) 0.784 (0.709-0.867) CO 0.577 (0.479-0.694) 0.877 (0.731-1.053) 0.835 (0.701-0.993) S O2 1.027 (0.939-1.122) 0.968 (0.886-1.058) 0.751 (0.690-0.817) T SP 0.954 (0.941-0.968) 0.956 (0.943-0.970) 0.991 (0.978-1.004) S O2 0.897 (0.819-0.982) 0.799 (0.730-0.875) 0.612 (0.561-0.668) PM 10 0.979 (0.962-0.996) 0.995 (0.978-1.011) 1.038 (1.022-1.054) NO2 0.713 (0.670-0.757) 0.679 (0.640-0.721) 0.708 (0.668-0.751) CO 1.395 (1.164-1.670) 1.674 (1.406-1.992) 1.319 (1.116-1.557) NO2 0.755 (0.715-0.797) 0.787 (0.746-0.830) 0.727 (0.692-0.764) T SP 1.011 (0.997-1.025) 0.998 (0.985-1.012) 1.018 (1.006-1.031) NO2 0.683 (0.646-0.722) 0.698 (0.662-0.736) 0.645 (0.613-0.678) PM 10 1.054 (1.036-1.072) 1.047 (1.030-1.064) 1.070 (1.054-1.086) CO 0.809 (0.680-0.963) 1.086 (0.917-1.287) 0.652 (0.554-0.768) T SP 0.971 (0.956-0.986) 0.947 (0.933-0.961) 0.989 (0.975-1.003) CO 0.604 (0.509-0.718) 0.725 (0.612-0.858) 0.425 (0.361-0.501) PM 10 1.003 (0.986-1.021) 0.989 (0.972-1.007) 1.043 (1.025-1.061) 1) O3, S O2, N O2, CO : RR for the incr ea se of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Int erv al - 29 -
T able 9. Relativ e risk at on e pollut ant s m odel of retrospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sin g 24hr m ean v alu es P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s before 2.263 (2.036-2.516) 1.121 (1.016-1.237) 1.805 (1.630-1.998) 14day s before 2.962 (2.683-3.271) 1.692 (1.542-1.856) 1.842 (1.674-2.025) 21day s before 2.416 (2.187-2.668) 1.517 (1.384-1.663) 1.785 (1.626-1.959) S O2 1) 7day s before 0.719 (0.659-0.785) 0.608 (0.560-0.661) 0.574 (0.530-0.622) 14day s before 0.532 (0.488-0.579) 0.485 (0.444-0.529) 0.550 (0.507-0.597) 21day s before 0.374 (0.342-0.409) 0.326 (0.300-0.355) 0.513 (0.474-0.555) 1 ) NO2 7day s before 0.727 (0.688-0.768) 0.721 (0.684-0.760) 0.681 (0.647-0.717) 14day s before 0.692 (0.656-0.730) 0.663 (0.628-0.699) 0.728 (0.691-0.766) 21day s before 0.665 (0.631-0.701) 0.637 (0.605-0.671) 0.750 (0.713-0.788) CO 1) 7day s before 0.552 (0.486-0.626) 0.583 (0.517-0.658) 0.492 (0.439-0.552) 14day s before 0.354 (0.312-0.401) 0.369 (0.326-0.417) 0.561 (0.501-0.629) 21day s before 0.310 (0.274-0.350) 0.273 (0.242-0.306) 0.525 (0.470-0.587) T SP 2 ) 7day s before 0.951 (0.939-0.964) 0.956 (0.944-0.969) 0.975 (0.962-0.987) 14day s before 0.951 (0.938-0.964) 0.923 (0.910-0.935) 0.963 (0.951-0.976) 21day s before 0.927 (0.915-0.939) 0.915 (0.904-0.927) 0.977 (0.966-0.988) 2 ) PM 10 7day s before 0.943 (0.929-0.958) 0.955 (0.940-0.970) 0.971 (0.956-0.986) 14day s before 0.958 (0.942-0.975) 0.925 (0.910-0.940) 0.977 (0.962-0.993) 21day s before 0.917 (0.903-0.932) 0.912 (0.898-0.927) 0.999 (0.978-1.007) 1) O3, S O2, N O2, CO : RR for the incr ea se of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Int erv al - 30 -
T able 10. Relativ e risk at one pollut ant s m odel of prospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sin g 24hr m ean v alu es P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s after 1.343 (1.208-1.493) 1.238 (1.119-1.369) 1.805 (1.630-1.998) 14day s aft er 2.063 (1.870-2.277) 1.536 (1.395-1.690) 1.842 (1.674-2.025) 21day s aft er 1.567 (1.424-1.724) 1.105 (1.008-1.210) 1.785 (1.626-1.959) S O2 1) 7day s after 1.144 (1.045-1.251) 0.718 (0.660-0.782) 0.574 (0.530-0.622) 14day s aft er 1.013 (0.929-1.104) 0.690 (0.634-0.751) 0.550 (0.507-0.597) 21day s aft er 1.354 (1.238-1.482) 1.196 (1.093-1.309) 0.513 (0.474-0.555) 1 ) NO2 7day s after 0.966 (0.912-1.024) 0.721 (0.684-0.760) 0.681 (0.647-0.717) 14day s aft er 0.746 (0.708-0.787) 0.663 (0.628-0.699) 0.728 (0.691-0.766) 21day s aft er 0.850 (0.806-0.897) 0.637 (0.605-0.671) 0.750 (0.713-0.788) CO 1) 7day s after 1.050 (0.921-1.196) 0.583 (0.517-0.658) 0.492 (0.439-0.552) 14day s aft er 0.744 (0.653-0.848) 0.369 (0.326-0.417) 0.561 (0.501-0.629) 21day s aft er 1.134 (0.995-1.293) 0.273 (0.242-0.306) 0.525 (0.470-0.587) T SP 2 ) 7day s after 0.937 (0.924-0.950) 0.956 (0.944-0.969) 0.975 (0.962-0.987) 14day s aft er 0.933 (0.920-0.946) 0.923 (0.910-0.935) 0.963 (0.951-0.976) 21day s aft er 0.963 (0.950-0.977) 0.915 (0.904-0.927) 0.977 (0.966-0.988) 2 ) PM 10 7day s after 0.941 (0.926-0.956) 0.955 (0.940-0.970) 0.971 (0.956-0.986) 14day s aft er 0.929 (0.914-0.946) 0.925 (0.910-0.940) 0.977 (0.962-0.993) 21day s aft er 0.982 (0.965-1.000) 0.912 (0.898-0.927) 0.9992(0.978-1.007) 1) O3, S O2, N O2, CO : RR for the incr ea se of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Int erv al - 31 -
T able 11. Relativ e risk at one pollutant s m odel of retrospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 24hr m ax im um v alu es P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s before 1.044 (1.014-1.076) 0.895 (0.871-0.921) 0.990 (0.962-1.019) 14day s before 1.113 (1.080-1.147) 0.961 (0.932-0.991) 1.021 (0.989-1.054) 21day s before 1.059 (1.033-1.087) 0.989 (0.965-1.015) 0.966 (0.941-0.991) S O2 1) 7day s before 0.925 (0.912-0.939) 0.955 (0.941-0.970) 0.903 (0.890-0.916) 14day s before 0.868 (0.856-0.881) 0.896 (0.882-0.910) 0.894 (0.881-0.906) 21day s before 0.829 (0.816-0.842) 0.861 (0.849-0.874) 0.865 (0.854-0.877) 1 ) NO2 7day s before 0.884 (0.867-0.901) 0.901 (0.883-0.919) 0.902 (0.884-0.920) 14day s before 0.842 (0.826-0.859) 0.845 (0.827-0.862) 0.898 (0.881-0.916) 21day s before 0.876 (0.860-0.892) 0.848 (0.832-0.864) 0.898 (0.881-0.915) CO 1) 7day s before 0.804 (0.778-0.830) 0.848 (0.822-0.875) 0.861 (0.836-0.888) 14day s before 0.852 (0.825-0.880) 0.864 (0.837-0.892) 0.958 (0.929-0.988) 21day s before 0.858 (0.831-0.885) 0.836 (0.812-0.861) 0.938 (0.912-0.965) T SP 2 ) 7day s before 0.990 (0.987-0.993) 0.986 (0.983-0.989) 0.996 (0.993-0.999) 14day s before 1.001 (0.997-1.005) 0.981 (0.978-0.984) 0.994 (0.991-0.997) 21day s before 0.989 (0.985-0.992) 0.983 (0.980-0.986) 0.997 (0.994-1.000) 2 ) PM 10 7day s before 0.983 (0.980-0.986) 0.985 (0.982-0.988) 0.995 (0.992-0.999) 14day s before 0.999 (0.996-1.003) 0.997 (0.993-1.000) 0.998 (0.994-1.002) 21day s before 0.993 (0.990-0.997) 0.991 (0.988-0.995) 0.987 (0.984-0.990) 1) O3, S O2, N O2, CO : RR for the incr ea se of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Int erv al - 32 -
T able 12. Relativ e risk at one pollut ant s m odel of prospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 24hr m ax im um v alu es P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s after 0.898 (0.872-0.926) 0.845 (0.821-0.869) 0.796 (0.773-0.819) 14day s after 0.950 (0.922-0.979) 0.919 (0.891-0.947) 0.861 (0.934-0.888) 21day s after 0.993 (0.968-1.018) 0.916 (0.892-0.939) 0.906 (0.882-0.929) S O2 1) 7day s after 0.992 (0.978-1.007) 0.960 (0.946-0.975) 0.922 (0.910-0.935) 14day s after 1.009 (0.994-1.025) 0.950 (0.935-0.965) 0.923 (0.910-0.936) 21day s after 1.000 (0.985-1.015) 0.973 (0.959-0.988) 0.964 (0.951-0.977) 1 ) N O2 7day s after 0.985 (0.965-1.005) 0.907 (0.889-0.925) 0.876 (0.860-0.893) 14day s after 0.985 (0.966-1.004) 0.942 (0.924-0.961) 0.908 (0.891-0.926) 21day s after 0.998 (0.979-1.017) 0.991 (0.972-1.010) 1.001 (0.982-1.022) CO 1 ) 7day s after 1.031 (0.996-1.067) 0.925 (0.896-0.954) 0.970 (0.941-1.001) 14day s after 1.063 (1.027-1.100) 1.011 (0.978-1.045) 1.001 (0.981-1.042) 21day s after 1.241 (1.199-1.285) 1.194 (1.155-1.233) 1.128 (1.094-1.163) T SP 2 ) 7day s after 0.999 (0.995-1.003) 0.985 (0.981-0.988) 0.985 (0.982-0.989) 14day s after 0.998 (0.995-1.002) 0.982 (0.978-0.985) 0.978 (0.975-0.981) 21day s after 0.987 (0.984-0.990) 0.992 (0.989-0.995) 0.983 (0.980-0.986) 2 ) P M 10 7day s after 0.996 (0.993-0.999) 0.997 (0.994-1.000) 0.995 (0.991-0.998) 14day s after 1.000 (0.996-1.003) 0.993 (0.990-0.997) 0.984 (0.980-0.988) 21day s after 1.004 (1.001-1.008) 1.000 (0.997-1.004) 0.992 (0.988-0.995) 1) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the increase of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increa se of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Interv al - 33 -
T able 13. Relativ e risk at one pollutant s m odel of retrospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 8hr m ean v alues P ollutant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s before 1.433 (1.344-1.527) 0.844 (0.794-0.897) 1.102 (1.036-1.172) 14day s before 1.734 (1.632-1.844) 1.076 (1.015-1.141) 1.166 (1.096-1.240) 21day s before 1.516 (1.431-1.605) 1.046 (0.991-1.103) 1.168 (1.106-1.233) S O2 1) 7day s before 0.809 (0.746-0.876) 0.745 (0.692-0.802) 0.674 (0.627-0.725) 14day s before 0.627 (0.582-0.676) 0.644 (0.596-0.696) 0.690 (0.642-0.742) 21day s before 0.529 (0.489-0.571) 0.480 (0.446-0.517) 0.695 (0.648-0.745) 1 ) N O2 7day s before 0.783 (0.747-0.822) 0.802 (0.766-0.839) 0.742 (0.710-0.775) 14day s before 0.699 (0.668-0.731) 0.723 (0.690-0.757) 0.793 (0.758-0.828) 21day s before 0.733 (0.700-0.768) 0.712 (0.681-0.744) 0.791 (0.759-0.825) CO 1 ) 7day s before 0.633 (0.545-0.734) 0.706 (0.615-0.811) 0.467 (0.410-0.532) 14day s before 0.367 (0.320-0.421) 0.475 (0.416-0.542) 0.601 (0.533-0.679) 21day s before 0.517 (0.449-0.595) 0.448 (0.393-0.510) 0.755 (0.670-0.852) T SP 2 ) 7day s before 0.965 (0.953-0.977) 0.964 (0.952-0.976) 0.971 (0.960-0.983) 14day s before 0.958 (0.947-0.970) 0.926 (0.915-0.937) 0.969 (0.958-0.980) 21day s before 0.951 (0.940-0.962) 0.935 (0.925-0.946) 0.983 (0.973-0.994) 2 ) P M 10 7day s before 0.960 (0.946-0.974) 0.966 (0.953-0.980) 0.965 (0.952-0.977) 14day s before 0.962 (0.948-0.976) 0.929 (0.916-0.942) 0.985 (0.972-0.998) 21day s before 0.951 (0.938-0.964) 0.935 (0.923-0.948) 0.993 (0.981-1.005) 1) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the increase of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increa se of 30 / 3) RR : Relativ e Risk 4) CI : Confidence Interv al - 34 -
T able 14. Relativ e risk at one pollut ant s m odel of prospectiv e selection w ith v ariou s lag tim es u sing 8hr m ean v alues P ollut ant RR 3 ) (95% CI 4 ) ) lag 1 day lag 2 day lag 3 day O3 1) 7day s after 1.297 (1.215-1.385) 0.938 (0.881-0.998) 0.925 (0.870-0.984) 14day s aft er 1.427 (1.341-1.518) 1.064 (1.003-1.128) 1.200 (1.129-1.276) 21day s aft er 1.248 (1.181-1.318) 0.963 (0.913-1.016) 1.052 (0.996-1.111) S O2 1) 7day s after 1.018 (0.938-1.106) 0.809 (0.749-0.874) 0.709 (0.659-0.763) 14day s aft er 0.957 (0.884-1.035) 0.879 (0.814-0.949) 0.689 (0.640-0.741) 21day s aft er 1.233 (1.137-1.337) 1.478 (1.362-1.605) 0.869 (0.805-0.938) 1) N O2 7day s after 0.919 (0.874-0.967) 0.789 (0.752-0.829) 0.760 (0.727-0.794) 14day s aft er 0.747 (0.712-0.784) 0.768 (0.733-0.805) 0.713 (0.682-0.745) 21day s aft er 0.822 (0.783-0.862) 0.892 (0.851-0.935) 0.779 (0.744-0.815) CO 1 ) 7day s after 0.891 (0.761-1.043) 0.692 (0.600-0.799) 0.604 (0.532-0.685) 14day s aft er 0.587 (0.505-0.681) 0.690 (0.598-0.795) 0.464 (0.408-0.528) 21day s aft er 0.858 (0.741-0.994) 1.234 (1.072-1.421) 0.662 (0.584-0.750) T SP 2 ) 7day s after 0.953 (0.941-0.965) 0.934 (0.923-0.946) 0.946 (0.935-0.957) 14day s aft er 0.943 (0.931-0.955) 0.959 (0.947-0.971) 0.924 (0.913-0.935) 21day s aft er 0.968 (0.956-0.980) 0.997 (0.985-1.010) 0.946 (0.936-0.957) 2 ) PM 10 7day s after 0.962 (0.948-0.976) 0.954 (0.940-0.967) 0.960 (0.948-0.973) 14day s aft er 0.953 (0.939-0.968) 0.979 (0.964-0.994) 0.937 (0.923-0.950) 21day s aft er 0.994 (0.979-1.009) 1.023 (1.009-1.039) 0.965 (0.952-0.977) 1) O3, S O2, NO2, CO : RR for the in crease of 30 ppb 2) T SP, PM 10 : RR for the increase of 30 / 3) RR : R elativ e Risk 4) CI : Confiden ce Interv al - 35 -
. 1.. - 1991 Maclure ( ),,,, (Navidi, 1998). - ( ) ( ).. (selection bias), (information bias ), (confounding bias ) 3., (selection bias) - 36 -
. -.., (information bias ) (misclassification ). (nondifferential misclassification ).. (differential misclassification ) (recall bias )... -,. - 37 -
., (confounding bias).. -.. -. -. Navidi(1998) PM 10. Neas (1999) - - 0.014 0.012 -. Lee (1999) -, - 38 -
. (2000),,,.. (, 1998) 1 100ppb 2.18, 100 / 0.88. 10, 65% 100ppb 2.16 (p- value 0.001), 100 / 1.16 (p- value 0.01). 1 30ppb 1.91 (24, 1 ). 2 24,..., - 39 -
( ) ( ) ( 1, 2, 3 ). (T able.5) (T able.9,11,13) (T able 10,12,14). 1, 2, 3 (Fig 1. A ). 1, 2, 3., 1, 2, 3 (Fig 1. B). 1, 2, 3 (Fig 1. C). 24 1 7 2.263(95%CI=2.036-2.516), 14 2.962(95%CI=2.683-3.271), 21 2.416(95%CI=2.187-2.668), 7 1.343 (95%CI=1.2.08-1.493), 14 2.063(95%CI=1.870-2.277), 21 1.567 (95%CI=1.424-1.724).. - 40 -
(, 1999) 24, 24, 8 3.,,.. 2.. (, 1998;, 2000) 10.1% 85.0%.,. (National Ambient Air Quality Standard), - 41 -
(, 1991)..,, (Kleeberger, 1995)., (Van Rooij, 1994)., (, 1995;, 1996; 1997).,.,,, (Mumtaz, 1995).... - 42 -
(Liu, 1997),..,,,,.,,. (, ). (, 1997), - 43 -
.,,. - 44 -
. 1995 11 1 1996 10 31, -. SO2.,. 24 1 1.910(95%CI=1.778-2.553) 30ppb 1.91. 24 O3 SO2, O3 NO2, O3 CO, O3 T SP, O3 PM 10 1 1.87(95%CI=1.73-2.03).,. - 45 -
,,.. 1997; 13(5) : 333-343,.. 1999; 32(2) : 191-199,,. 1994 3 11-17. 1995; 11(3) : 263-272,.. 1997; 23(1) : 137-145.. 1991; 7(1) : 67-71. ( ) 1998.. 1994; 16(1) : 6-19,,.. 2000; 33(1) : 76-82 - 46 -
,,.. 1998; 31(3) : 460-470.., 1992,,. (1991-1994 ). 1998; 31(1) : 82-90, Dockery DW,. (1991-1995 ). 1999; 32(2) : 177-182,,.. 1998; 10(3) : 333-342,,.. 2000; 12(2) : 249-257., 1997; 193-203,.. 1991; 7(3) : 169-179 - 47 -
.. 1989; 32(12) : 1272-1278.. 1998.., 1999.., 1999.,.. 1995; 17(1) : 64-75,.. 1996; 12(4) : 389-393., 1994; 217-229., 1997., 1997-48 -
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= Abs tra c t = S h ort - term E ffe ct of A ir P ollution on Re s pirat ory D is e as e in S e ou l : A Cas e - Cro s s ov er D e s ig n Young - Ju Lee Department of Envir onment al Science Graduate School of Health Science and Management Yonsei University (D ire ct e d by P rof e s s or Jon g - T ae Le e ) It is w ell know n that short - term increase in air pollution such as those that occurr ed in developed countries during this century, are associated with an increased number of death, hospital admission and hospit al em ergency room visit s especially among those with pr eexisting illnes ses like cardiov ascular disease and chr onic respir atory disease. T his study w as designed and conducted to evaluat e the hypothesis that increased emer gency r oom visit s for medical utilization data of un scheduled visit by r espir atory diseases, and if so, to quantify the strength of association betw een those. Daily count s of emer gency r oom visit s for r espirat ory disease, air quality, and w eather data w ere collected. W e complied daily r ecords of hospital emergency room visit s in Seoul from Nov ember 1. 1995 to Oct ober 31. 1996. Daily respiratory disease em ergency r oom visit s w ere r egres sed on temperature, humidity, day of w eek indication s seasonal variation indication s and air pollution. Each pollutant w as fir st ex amined individually and then tw o pollutant s m odel w ere fitted. Lately the case- crossov er design that w as newly developed by Malculare has been being introduced in the fields of air pollution epidemiology. T his study, - 55 -
u sing case- crossov er design sear ch a r elation ship betw een air pollut ant s and emergency r oom visit s for r espir atory disease. We analy zed the dat a by conditional logistic regres sion u sed when m atched case- control study is analy sed. Control periods w er e chosen by bidir ectional pair ed mat ching technic 7, 14, 21day s before and after case periods. Only ozone w as as sociated with increased risk of emer gency room visit s for respir atory disease. T he relativ e risk of respir atory emer gency r oom for 30ppb increase in ozone (24hr m ean, lagged 1day ) w as 1.91(95% confidence interv al; 1.78-2.05) and w e observed that. In conclu sion, there w as statistically significant association betw een ambient levels of ozone and daily count s of emer gency room visit s for respiratory disease. So, w e have to ex ert our effort s to minimize the air pollution effectiv ely to pr otect public health fr om air pollution. Key w ords : air pollution, ozone, conditional logistic regres sion, case- cr os sover design, emer gency room visit - 56 -