삼성전자 BUY 현재직전변동 투자의견 BUY 유지 목표주가 53, 유지 Earnings 유지 현재가 (3/11) 43,65 원 예상주가상승률 21.4% 시가총액 2,65,81 억원 비중 (KOSPI 내 ) 18.47% 발행주식수 5,969,783 천주 52주최저가 / 최고가 37,45-53, 원 3개월일평균거래대금 5,372 억원 외국인지분율 56.7% 주요주주지분율 (%) 이건희 ( 외 11인 ) 21.2 국민연금공단 1. BlackRock Fund Advisors ( 외 15인 ) 5. 218 219E 22E PER( 배 ) 5.6 12. 9.5 PBR( 배 ) 1.2 1.2 1.2 EV/EBITDA( 배 ) 2. 3.1 2.5 배당수익률 (%) 3.7 3.3 3.7 1M 6M 12M YTD 주가상승률 (%) (3.) (3.1) (12.2) 12.8 KOSPI 대비상대수익률 (%) (1.) 3.2.8 8. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 18.3 18.7 18.11 19.3 주가 ( 좌, 원 ) KOSPI 지수대비 ( 우, p) 반도체 /Display 연구원 1Q19 Preview: 의도치않은상저하고실적 삼성전자 1Q19 실적 Preview 및투자전략점검 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 53, 원 (SOTP 적용, 219E PER 13.8x, PBR 1.5x) 유지. 실적하향조정에도불구하고주가조정시비중확대추천. 1) 1H19 실적 Hard landing 이후추가감익여지가적고, 2) 5G와 Foldable 등중장기성장동력은여전히유효하며, 3) 막대한 FCF 를활용한 M&A 와주주환원을통해 Valuation 재평가가능성이있기때문. Coverage top-picks 유지 - 1Q19E 매출액 55.3 조원 (-6.6% QoQ, -8.6% YoY), 영업이익 6.8 조원 (-36.7% QoQ, -56.3% YoY) 추정. 반도체와 DP 실적 Hard landing 으로컨센서스하회전망 1) 반도체 : 영업이익 4.7 조원 (-39.5% QoQ, -59.3% YoY) 추정. 전방수요약세로 ASP 는 DRAM -27%, NAND -23% 하락한반면감상비는 +2% YoY 증가전망 2) DP: 영업이익 -.6 조원 (-166.4% QoQ, -258.5% YoY) 추정. OLED 와 LCD 모두적자전환전망. OLED 는 Apple 향수요급감, LCD 는 TV 부문경쟁심화영향 3) IM: 영업이익 2.7 조원 (+75.6% QoQ, -29.6% YoY) 추정. Galaxy S1 초기판매호조에도불구원가상승으로실질적인수익성개선폭은미미할것으로전망 4) CE: 영업이익.3 조원 (-61.5% QoQ, -5.4% YoY) 추정. 전반적으로평이한실적전망. 일반가전은환경이슈로실적호조 vs VD는 TV 수요약세로실적악화추정 - 219E 매출액 225.5 조원 (-7.5% YoY), 영업이익 3.1 조원 (-48.9% YoY) 추정. 1H19 반도체와 DP 실적악화를반영해서기존영업이익추정치를 -11.6% 하향조정 - 반도체실적은 2H19 회복세전망. NAND 의경우 1Q19 ASP 급락으로업계수익성은 BEP 에근접. ASP 추가하락시 2~3위권업체가동률조정불가피, 이미해외주요경쟁사의경우신규투자를미루고가동률조정중. 동사 NAND M/S 확대전망 - DP 실적도 2H19 회복세전망. LCD 는고정비부담증가로대규모적자가이어지나 OLED 는 Apple 신제품출시효과로 V자실적회복추정 ( 단위 : 십억원, %) 216 217 218 219E 22E 221E 222E 매출액 21,867 239,575 243,771 225,464 236,489 253,563 272,73 영업이익 29,241 53,645 58,887 3,12 37,93 43,269 49,387 EBITDA 49,954 75,762 85,369 58,695 68,747 77,213 84,656 순이익 22,726 42,187 44,345 23,69 28,94 32,984 37,619 자산총계 262,174 31,752 331,42 348,77 366,851 389,87 416,227 자본총계 192,963 214,491 247,753 261,64 279,92 3,814 327,144 순차입금 (72,9) (64,37) (86,273) (17,997) (116,21) (129,58) (146,569) 매출액증가율.6 18.7 1.8 (7.5) 4.9 7.2 7.3 영업이익률 14.5 22.4 24.2 13.4 16. 17.1 18.2 순이익률 11.3 17.6 18.2 1.2 12.2 13. 13.8 EPS증가율 23.5 96.9 12.3 (44.6) 25.3 14.1 14.1 ROE 12.7 21.4 19.8 9.4 11. 11.7 12.3 Note: K-IFRS 연결기준 / Source: KTB투자증권
Fig. 1: ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 변경전 변경후 차이 (%,%p) 219.3 219.6 219.9 219.12 219.3 219.6 219.9 219.12 219.3 219.6 219.9 219.12 매출액 53,743.9 55,821.3 58,121.4 58,434.7 55,349.5 54,22.1 57,88.1 58,31.8 3. (2.9) (.4) (.7) 영업이익 8,415. 8,172. 8,779. 8,698. 6,841. 6,668. 8,26. 8,45. (18.7) (18.4) (6.5) (3.4) 영업이익률 (%) 15.7 14.6 15.1 14.9 12.4 12.3 14.2 14.5 (3.3) (2.3) (.9) (.4) EBITDA 15,45.7 14,931.8 15,666.9 15,716.5 13,78.6 13,743.4 15,416.9 15,754.1 (8.4) (8.) (1.6).2 EBITDA이익률 (%) 28. 26.7 27. 26.9 24.9 25.4 26.6 27.1 (3.1) (1.4) (.3).3 순이익 6,45.4 6,23.3 6,688.1 6,647. 5,254.8 5,127.3 6,26.3 6,426.9 (18.) (17.7) (6.4) (3.3) Note: K-IFRS 연결기준 Fig. 2: ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 변경전변경후차이 (%,%P ) 219E 22E 221E 219E 22E 221E 219E 22E 221E 매출액 226,121.3 236,14.6 251,355.6 225,463.6 236,488.6 253,562.6 (.3).2.9 영업이익 34,64. 39,137. 43,96.9 3,12. 37,93. 43,269. (11.6) (3.2) (1.5) 영업이익률 (%) 15.1 16.6 17.5 13.4 16. 17.1 (1.7) (.6) (.4) EBITDA 61,361. 68,581.2 76,762.9 58,695. 68,746.8 77,213.1 (4.3).2.6 EBITDA 이익률 (%) 27.1 29.1 3.5 26. 29.1 3.5 (1.1). (.1) 순이익 25,97.9 29,821.8 33,453.6 23,69.3 28,94.2 32,983.5 (11.2) (3.1) (1.4) Note: K-IFRS 연결기준
Fig. 3: 단위 : 조원 12M Forw ard EBITDA Multiple 적정가치 비고 반도체 37.6 3.5 131.4 Micron 2x, SK Hynix 1.5x, Intel 7x, TSMC 7x DP 7.2 2.8 2.2 LG Display IM 1.8 7.2 78. Apple 4% 할인 CE 2.5 6.5 16.4 Whirlpool, Electrolux Harman.8 6.5 5.1 Continental, Bosch, Delphi A. 영업가치 251.1 상장주식 2.9 3% Discount 비상장주식 4.7 4% Discount B. 자산가치 7.6 C. 순현금 18 D. 기업가치 (A+B+C) 367 주식수 ( 백만주 ) 6,793 총주식수 6.8십억주 ( 우선주포함 ) 적정주가 ( 원 ) 53,991 목표주가 ( 원 ) 53, Fig. 4: Fig. 5: 75, 6, 45, 3, 15, 11.x 9.5x 8.x 6.5x 5.x 75, 6, 45, 3, 15, 2.1x 1.8x 1.5x 1.2x.9x `9 `1 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 `17 `18 `19 Source: KTB 투자증권 `9 `1 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 `17 `18 `19 Source: KTB 투자증권 Fig. 6: 75, 6, 45, 3, 15, 5.x 4.3x 3.6x 2.9x 2.2x `9 `1 `11 `12 `13 `14 `15 `16 `17 `18 `19 Source: KTB 투자증권
Fig. 7: 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 216A 217A 218A 219E 사업부문별매출액 Semiconductor 15,66 17,576 19,96 21,114 2,783 21,992 24,768 18,747 14,61 14,225 16,325 17,26 51,157 74,256 86,29 62,366 Memory 12,12 13,94 16,135 17,94 17,33 18,5 21,5 15,5 11,226 1,733 12,421 13,732 37,85 6,136 72,38 48,112 DRAM 7,243 8,398 9,628 1,7 1,752 11,673 13,867 1,233 7,373 7,68 8,16 8,977 22,59 35,968 46,527 31,524 NAND 4,877 5,542 6,58 7,24 6,578 6,827 7,183 5,267 3,853 3,665 4,315 4,756 15,26 24,167 25,853 16,588 System LSI 3,54 3,636 3,771 3,174 3,453 3,492 3,718 3,247 3,384 3,492 3,94 3,474 13,37 14,12 13,91 14,254 Display 7,292 7,79 8,281 11,183 7,537 5,666 1,88 9,174 7,447 6,974 1,37 9,813 26,929 34,465 32,465 34,271 LCD 2,751 2,881 2,73 2,57 1,934 1,843 1,99 1,894 1,81 1,669 1,498 1,454 11,316 1,868 7,662 6,422 OLED 4,541 4,828 5,551 8,676 5,63 3,823 8,98 7,28 5,646 5,35 8,539 8,359 15,613 23,597 24,83 27,849 IM 23,498 3,11 27,691 25,468 28,45 23,995 24,913 23,32 28,74 26,577 25,258 23,325 1,32 16,668 1,678 13,899 CE 1,336 1,924 11,13 12,719 9,742 1,43 1,179 11,786 9,553 1,426 1,6 11,388 47,46 45,19 42,11 41,427 VD 6,456 6,184 6,823 8,359 5,84 5,94 5,98 7,536 5,495 5,695 5,735 7,138 28,72 27,822 25,296 24,64 Others 3,88 4,74 4,37 4,36 3,92 4,463 4,199 4,25 4,58 4,731 4,325 4,25 18,326 17,287 16,814 17,363 Harman 2,692 2,87 2,323 1,941 2,134 2,217 2,552 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,8 7,13 8,844 1,3 Total 5,548 61,1 62,49 65,978 6,564 58,483 65,46 59,265 55,349 54,22 57,88 58,32 21,857 239,575 243,772 225,464 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 216A 217A 218A 219E 영업이익 Semiconductor 6,314 8,31 9,963 1,896 11,55 11,66 13,65 7,767 4,71 3,945 4,66 4,967 13,596 35,24 44,573 18,273 Memory 6,13 7,668 9,548 1,556 11,22 11,1 13,18 7,25 4,251 3,463 4,74 4,515 12,738 33,785 42,39 16,34 DRAM 3,843 4,951 6,17 6,791 7,47 7,964 9,857 6,171 3,982 3,463 3,729 4,39 8,976 21,63 31,462 15,213 NAND 2,17 2,716 3,531 3,765 3,552 3,136 3,16 1,8 27 345 476 3,763 12,182 1,928 1,9 System LSI 31 364 415 34 528 56 632 517 45 482 586 452 857 1,419 2,183 1,969 Display 1,35 1,76 974 1,414 48 136 1,11 975-647 -556 81 88 2,227 5,398 2,62 487 LCD 442 65 287 14 4-93 3 121-342 -317-3 -291-857 1,437 71-1,25 OLED 863 1,11 687 1,31 369 229 1,98 854-35 -239 1,11 1,17 3,84 3,961 2,55 1,737 IM 2,65 4,57 3,29 2,415 3,77 2,669 2,221 1,512 2,655 2,836 2,126 1,919 1,87 11,827 1,172 9,536 CE 38 319 444 511 275 513 559 676 26 46 589 656 2,638 1,654 2,23 1,965 VD 38 296 41 528 275 443 454 63 22 342 459 571 2,459 1,64 1,775 1,591 Others 23 43-17 71 15 73 41 118 13 85 179 49 249 374 Harman 1-14 6-37 45 81 73 46 83 122 84 56 162 334 Total 9,898 14,67 14,533 15,147 15,642 14,869 17,575 1,81 6,841 6,668 8,26 8,45 29,241 53,645 58,887 3,12 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 216A 217A 218A 219E 영업이익률 Semiconductor 4.3% 45.7% 5.1% 51.6% 55.6% 52.8% 55.1% 41.4% 32.2% 27.7% 28.5% 28.9% 26.6% 47.4% 51.7% 29.3% Memory 49.6% 55.% 59.2% 58.8% 63.6% 6.% 61.8% 46.8% 37.9% 32.3% 32.8% 32.9% 33.7% 56.2% 58.6% 33.9% DRAM 53.1% 59.% 62.5% 63.5% 69.5% 68.2% 71.1% 6.3% 54.% 49.% 46.% 45.% 39.7% 6.1% 67.6% 48.3% NAND 44.5% 49.% 54.3% 52.% 54.% 45.9% 44.% 2.5% 7.%.% 8.% 1.% 24.7% 5.4% 42.3% 6.6% System LSI 8.5% 1.% 11.% 1.7% 15.3% 14.5% 17.% 15.9% 13.3% 13.8% 15.% 13.% 6.4% 1.% 15.7% 13.8% Display 17.9% 22.1% 11.8% 12.6% 5.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% -8.7% -8.% 8.1% 9.% 8.3% 15.7% 8.1% 1.4% LCD 16.1% 21.% 1.5% 4.1% 2.1% -5.1%.2% 6.4% -19.% -19.% -2.% -2.% -7.6% 13.2%.9% -19.5% OLED 19.% 22.8% 12.4% 15.1% 6.6% 6.% 13.6% 11.7% -5.4% -4.5% 13.% 14.% 19.8% 16.8% 1.3% 6.2% IM 8.8% 13.5% 11.9% 9.5% 13.3% 11.1% 8.9% 6.5% 9.2% 1.7% 8.4% 8.2% 1.8% 11.1% 1.1% 9.2% CE 3.7% 2.9% 4.% 4.% 2.8% 4.9% 5.5% 5.7% 2.7% 4.4% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 3.7% 4.8% 4.7% VD 5.9% 4.8% 5.9% 6.3% 4.7% 7.5% 7.6% 8.% 4.% 6.% 8.% 8.% 8.6% 5.8% 7.% 6.6% Others.%.5% 1.% -.4%.% 1.6% 2.5% 1.7% 1.% 2.5% 3.% 2.% 1.%.3% 1.5% 2.2% Harman.4% -.7% 2.6% -1.9% 2.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.% 3.3% 4.5% 3.%.8% 1.8% 3.2% Total 19.6% 23.1% 23.4% 23.% 25.8% 25.4% 26.8% 18.2% 12.4% 12.3% 14.2% 14.5% 14.5% 22.4% 24.2% 13.4%
Fig. 8: 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 216A 217A 218A 219E DRAM Shipment(1Gb,mn) 8,61 9,152 9,86 1,159 9,957 1,455 11,95 9,777 9,65 11,146 13,598 15,366 33,444 37,726 42,141 49,761 QoQ/YoY -12.% 6.3% 7.1% 3.6% -2.% 5.% 14.3% -18.2% -1.3% 15.5% 22.% 13.% 33.2% 12.8% 11.7% 18.1% ASP($).7.8.9 1. 1. 1. 1..9.7.6.5.5.6.8 1..6 QoQ/YoY 23.% 11.% 7.% 1.2% 5.4% 2.% -.2% -9.% -27.% -17.% -6.% -2.% -28.7% 45.3% 18.2% -43.5% NAND Shipment(1GB,mn) 13,451 14,393 16,47 18,81 17,231 19,816 23,918 21,845 2,753 24,73 3,813 35,744 49,65 62,332 82,81 111,383 QoQ/YoY -12.% 7.% 14.% 1.2% -4.7% 15.% 2.7% -8.7% -5.% 16.% 28.% 16.% 83.6% 27.% 32.9% 34.5% ASP($).3.3.4.4.4.3.3.2.2.1.1.1.3.3.3.1 QoQ/YoY 14.8% 8.1% 3.% 3.7% -2.% -11.% -16.3% -19.% -23.% -18.% -8.% -5.% -26.3% 28.4% -17.7% -53.1% LCD Shipment(m2) 5,718 5,69 5,77 5,625 5,111 5,111 5,351 5,244 5,139 4,625 4,7 3,989 31,73 22,822 2,816 17,823 QoQ/YoY -32.7%.4%.% -2.% -9.1%.% 4.7% -2.% -2.% -1.% -12.% -2.% -7.1% -28.% -8.8% -14.4% ASP($/m2) 418.3 444.2 422. 45.1 353.7 332.4 329.1 322.5 312.9 322.2 328.7 325.4 356.9 476.2 368.1 36.3 QoQ/YoY 4.5% 6.2% -5.% -4.% -12.7% -6.% -1.% -2.% -3.% 3.% 2.% -1.% -19.9% 33.4% -22.7% -2.1% OLED Shipment(mn) 13 96 92 123 94 9 12 12 15 14 126 123 373 413 424 458 QoQ/YoY 2.1% -7.2% -3.9% 33.6% -23.1% -4.9% 33.8% -.5% -12.4% -1.1% 22.% -2.3% 39.9% 1.9% 2.6% 8.% ASP($) 44. 5.5 6.4 7.7 59.3 42.6 67.4 6.9 53.9 51.2 67.6 67.7 62.3 73.1 67.1 65.6 QoQ/YoY 1.6% 14.6% 19.7% 17.% -16.1% -28.2% 58.3% -9.7% -11.4% -4.9% 31.9%.2% -3.% 17.4% -8.2% -2.3% Smartphone Shipment(mn) 79.2 8.2 82.8 75.7 77.6 69.8 71.7 68.9 77.6 73.2 73.8 7.9 31.3 317.9 287.9 295.6 QoQ/YoY 1.5% 1.2% 3.3% -8.7% 2.6% -1.1% -9.% -8.% 12.7% -5.6%.8% -3.9% -4.% 2.4% -9.4% 2.7% TV Shipment(mn) 9.4 9.1 1.1 13.9 9.7 9.1 9.4 13. 9.5 9.4 9.7 13. 47.4 42.5 41.2 41.5 QoQ/YoY -37.9% -3.4% 11.7% 35.% -29.3% -6.1% 3.8% 37.8% -27.1% -1.3% 3.8% 33.8% -.2% -1.4% -3.1%.9% Fig. 9: Fig. 1: 4 매출액 ( 좌 ) 영업이익률 ( 우 ) 3% 8 CE DP 영업이익률 ( 우 ) IM Semi 3% 3 2% 6 2% 2 4 1 1% 2 1% `15 `16 `17 `18 `19E `2E % 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q2 3Q2 % Fig. 11: Fig. 12: 4 Semi DP IM CE 15 Semi DP IM CE 3 2 1 1 5 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q2 3Q2 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q2 3Q2
Fig. 13: Fig. 14: 14 12 순현금 EBITDA CAPEX 3 1 8 2 6 4 1 2 `16 `17 `18 `19E `2E `16 `17 `18P `19E `2E Fig. 15: Fig. 16: 5 CAPEX 감각상각비 15 CAPEX 감각상각비 4 3 1 2 5 1 `14 `15 `16 `17 `18 `19E 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Fig. 17: Fig. 18: 1 CAPEX 감각상각비 5 CAPEX 감각상각비 4 5 3 2 1 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
Global Peers Analysis Fig. 19: Global Peers Earnings & Valuation 반도체 LCD 디스플레이 장비 PC 휴대폰 가전 P CB / P KG 수동부품 LE D 전지 / 소재 Mkt Cap. P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) (Mil. USD) 1W 1M 3M 6M YTD 219E 22E 219E 22E 219E 22E 219E 22E 삼성전자 23,21 (2.7) (5.2) 7.9 (2.) 12.8 9.8 8.3 1.1 1. 11.6 12.7 2.7 2.4 SK 하이닉스 42,832 (5.) (12.3).6 (11.3) 1.1 6.8 5.3.9.8 14.1 16. 2.5 2.1 INTEL 239,915 (1.1) 9.4 12.6 18.7 13.7 11.8 11.3 2.8 2.4 25.5 23.9 7.6 7.2 QUALCOMM 65,78 1.1 6.9 (5.2) (25.) (4.5) 14.1 11.8 - - 52.1-11.2 9.8 MICRON 43,754 (4.9) 1.2 1.8 (1.5) 23. 5.4 6.4 1.2 1. 23.7 15.3 2.7 2.9 TOSHIBA 18,696 1. 11.1 4.5 13.8 14.5 19.7 15.9 1.3 1.2 6.8 8.8 6.8 6.2 MEDIATEK 13,91 (2.5) 4.9 15.9 1.7 17.6 19.3 15.9 1.5 1.4 8.4 9.5 11.5 9.4 TSMC 193,348 (2.1).2 1.8 (11.5) 2.2 17.5 15.3 3.3 3.1 19.7 21.3 8. 7.1 LG 디스플레이 6,654 1.2 9.1 21.3 3.4 16.6-26.7.5.5 (1.3) 1.8 3.4 2.7 BOE 21,219 (4.2) 37.5 51.1 28.2 57.4 36. 31.1 1.6 1.6 4.2 4.6 11. 9. AUO 3,58.9 5. (7.3) (1.9) (6.5) - -.6.6 (1.9) (2.9) 4.4 4.5 INNOLUX 3,219 (1.) (3.4) (1.5) (6.5) 2.9 - -.4.4 (2.) (3.2) 2.1 2.2 SHARP 5,833 (9.8) (.7) (6.4) (46.4) 1.6 9.2 9.8 1.9 1.6 2.5 17.6 6.7 6.4 JAPAN DISPLAY 525 (1.4) (5.5) 32.7 (5.) (4.2) - -.6.6 (14.8) (6.4) 4.8 4. CORNING 26,97 (2.) 2.5 8.3 1.9 13.2 16.9 15.2 2.2 2.2 13.8 14.9 8.9 8.4 AMAT 36,561 (1.5) (3.5) 13.2 (1.7) 17.6 12.4 1.1 4.6 4.5 37.4 39.1 1.2 9.1 LAM RESEARCH 26,248 (3.2) (2.2) 24.4 1.7 26.3 12.5 11.3 4.5 4.2 35.5 35.4 8.6 8.6 KLA-TENCOR 19,137.2 1.7 26.1 1.7 3.7 14. 12.9 16.2 11.4 88.4 15.5 11.4 1.3 TOKYO ELECTRON 21,737 (8.) (6.6) 4. (11.5) 17. 13.6 11.6 2.4 2.2 18.4 2.5 8. 6.9 MICROSOFT 865,656.5 7.2 3.9 1.4 11.1 25.4 22.4 9.2 7.4 42. 37.1 15.7 13.8 HP 29,198 (2.5) (16.7) (15.6) (22.9) (6.9) 8.8 8.5 - - (364.) 2,48.8 6.5 6.5 LENOVO 1,592 (4.3) 16.3 22.9 27. 3.8 17.6 14.2 2.6 2.2 15. 17.5 6.6 5.9 APPLE 843,564 1.7 5.6 6.1 (2.1) 13.4 15.6 13.8 8.4 8.9 54.5 72.9 9.5 9.1 HTC 96 (4.4) (2.3) (8.1) (7.8) 2.5 2.1 -.6.7 34.6 (2.4) - - ZTE 17,887.3 44.3 52. 76.1 55.2-3.2 3.9 3.5 (18.8) 11.8 62.6 19.6 LG 전자 1,886 5.8 4.7 1.9 4.4 2.9 9.9 7.9.9.8 8.7 9.9 4.4 4. WHIRLPOOL 8,691 (4.4) 2.8 18.3 8.5 27.8 9.4 8.3 3.7 3.1 3.8 35.3 7.1 6.8 ELECTROLUX 7,951 (1.6) 2.9 22.5 26.3 28.8 14.5 12.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 23. 6.9 6.1 SONY 57,392 (5.7) 3.5 (15.4) (2.9) (5.7) 7.8 11.1 1.7 1.5 24.7 14.1 4.6 4.6 PANASONIC 21,446 (4.8) (6.) (1.3) (22.5) (1.8) 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1 13.8 11.6 4.1 4.2 삼성전기 6,599 (6.5) (11.5) (1.7) (31.7) (3.4) 9.4 7.9 1.4 1.2 15.6 15.9 4.3 3.9 JABIL 4,273 (3.6).3 19.3 (6.3) 11.4 9.2 8.3 2.3 2.1 25.1 27.3 3.8 3.5 IBIDEN 2,48.1 7.8 4.1 1.1 4.5 43.2 2.3.8.8 2. 3.7 5. 4.3 SHINKO 971 (5.7) 1.9 6.3 (1.2) 14.1 22. 19.2.8.8 3.5 3.8 2.7 2.4 KINSUS 596 (1.7) (8.1) (13.1) (13.7) (5.3) 17.5 13..6.6 3.6 5.1 2.7 2.6 NANYA PCB 767 (5.2) (5.9) (7.4) 17.8 8.6-72.1.8.8 (2.3) 1.6 13.2 5.5 MURATA 34,427 (7.2) (4.1) 2.5 (.1) 13.7 17.4 14.5 2.3 2. 13.8 14.7 9.3 7.9 KYOCERA 21,31 (2.4) 3.8 6.5 (4.5) 12.5 22. 15.7.9.9 4.3 6. 1.3 7.6 TDK 1,22 (7.) (.1) 1.5 (23.8) 13.5 14.3 12.6 1.3 1.2 9.1 9.7 6.1 5.4 TAIYO YUDEN 2,48 (13.2) (11.) 11.1 (2.9) 29.5 11.7 1. 1.4 1.2 12.6 13.2 4.8 4.1 LG 이노텍 2,279. 1.9 16.7 (2.4) 26.2 15.2 1.7 1.1 1. 7.6 1. 4.8 4.3 서울반도체 1,12 (1.7) (1.9) 9.8 7.1 12.4 17.5 15.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 11.5 7.1 6.8 CREE 5,544 (1.4) 3.6 19.6 23.6 25.6 66.6 41.6 2.5 2.4 2. 4.4 21. 17.1 PHILIPS 36,921 (1.4) 4. 1.6 (7.5) 14.4 19.7 16.7 2.6 2.4 12.9 14.3 1.7 9.7 EPISTAR 91 (4.4) (2.6) (8.7) (2.2) 1. 38.9 43.3.5.5 1. 1. 5.2 4.9 LG 화학 22,513 (6.7) (2.8) 3.1 5.1 4. 16.7 13.3 1.5 1.4 9. 1.5 6.8 5.7 삼성 SDI 13,213 (8.8) (8.) 4.3 (12.1) (.7) 14.9 12.2 1.2 1.1 8. 9.2 1. 8.2 UDC 7,16 (.6) 34.6 58.3 19.1 62.4 72.3 4.8 5.8 4.8 12.4 19.6 59.9 32.8 TESLA 5,248 1.9 (7.) (2.7) 4.1 (12.6) 5.8 27.6 7.2 5.5 13.2 17.2 16.3 12.2 Source: Bloomberg, KTB 투자증권
재무제표 (K-IFRS 연결 ) 대차대조표 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 217 218 219E 22E 221E 유동자산 146,982.5 174,697.4 192,845.7 21,738.2 217,462.9 현금성자산 83,184.2 1,939.9 116,635.8 122,615.1 133,644.5 매출채권 31,85. 36,948.5 4,168.4 42,232. 44,977.1 재고자산 24,983.4 28,984.7 27,982.5 28,751.4 3,62.3 비유동자산 154,769.6 156,344.7 155,861.1 165,113. 171,624.4 투자자산 28,343.5 26,36.4 28,276.1 3,288.6 31,518.5 유형자산 111,665.6 115,416.7 112,839.4 12,25.4 125,578.2 무형자산 14,76.5 14,891.6 14,745.5 14,619. 14,527.7 자산총계 31,752.1 331,42.2 348,76.8 366,851.2 389,87.3 유동부채 67,175.1 69,81.5 63,251.7 62,594.1 62,262.4 매입채무 22,983.5 19,191.5 18,998.9 19,975. 21,273.3 유동성이자부채 16,46.2 13,62. 7,62. 5,62. 3,62. 비유동부채 2,85.5 22,522.6 24,391.5 25,165.6 26,11.2 비유동이자부채 2,767.8 1,47.1 1,19.2 973.9 966.9 부채총계 87,26.7 91,64.1 87,643.2 87,759.6 88,273.6 자본금 897.5 897.5 897.5 897.5 897.5 자본잉여금 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 이익잉여금 215,811.2 242,699. 256,9.4 274,37.4 295,759.5 자본조정 (13,899.2) (7,931.4) (7,931.4) (7,931.4) (7,931.4) 자기주식 (6,228.2).... 자본총계 214,491.4 247,753.2 261,63.6 279,91.6 3,813.7 투하자본 135,46. 145,852. 145,456.8 155,151.2 163,515.4 순차입금 (64,37.2) (86,272.8) (17,996.6) (116,21.2) (129,57.6) ROA 15. 14. 6.8 8.1 8.7 ROE 21.4 19.8 9.4 11. 11.7 ROIC 33.2 3.4 15.1 18.4 19.8 현금흐름표 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 217 218 219E 22E 221E 영업현금 62,162. 67,31.9 55,462. 69,757.2 75,459.7 당기순이익 42,186.7 44,344.9 23,69.3 28,94.2 32,983.5 자산상각비 22,117.4 26,482. 28,575. 3,843.8 33,944.2 운전자본증감 (1,62.5) (9,924.4) (2,282.3) (1,57.8) (3,27.) 매출채권감소 ( 증가 ) (7,676.2) 4,513.6 (3,219.9) (2,63.6) (2,745.1) 재고자산감소 ( 증가 ) (8,444.5) (5,979.5) 1,2.2 (769.) (1,868.8) 매입채무증가 ( 감소 ) 5,12.4 (2,414.9) (192.5) 976.1 1,298.4 투자현금 (49,385.2) (52,24.5) (35,78.7) (46,162.2) (47,35.7) 단기투자자산감소 887.5 (14,657.2) (8,89.4) (6,486.5) (7,21.2) 장기투자증권감소 (273.4). 13.1 111. 119.5 설비투자 (42,792.2) (29,556.4) (24,8.) (37,.) (38,11.) 유무형자산감소 (674.7) (451.6) (1,51.6) (1,83.2) (1,115.7) 재무현금 (12,56.9) (15,9.2) (15,648.4) (12,748.1) (13,7.5) 차입금증가 2,588.2 (4,29.5) (6,27.9) (2,45.3) (2,7.) 자본증가 (6,84.3) (9,62.) (9,62.5) (1,72.8) (11,63.5) 배당금지급 6,84.3 9,62. 9,62.5 1,72.8 11,63.5 현금증감 (1,566.3) (24.6) 7,66.5 (57.2) 4,8.2 총현금흐름 (Gross CF) 78,398. 87,949.4 57,744.3 71,327.9 78,486.7 (-) 운전자본증가 ( 감소 ) 146.5 5,626.6 2,282.3 1,57.8 3,27. (-) 설비투자 42,792.2 29,556.4 24,8. 37,. 38,11. (+) 자산매각 (674.7) (451.6) (1,51.6) (1,83.2) (1,115.7) Free Cash Flow 18,392.2 25,784.6 19,681.3 23,594.9 28,424. (-) 기타투자 273.4. (13.1) (111.) (119.5) 잉여현금 18,118.8 25,784.6 19,784.4 23,75.9 28,543.5 자료 : KTB 투자증권 손익계산서 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 217 218 219E 22E 221E 매출액 239,575.4 243,771.4 225,463.6 236,488.6 253,562.6 증가율 (Y-Y,%) 18.7 1.8 (7.5) 4.9 7.2 영업이익 53,645. 58,886.7 3,12. 37,93. 43,269. 증가율 (Y-Y,%) 83.5 9.8 (48.9) 25.8 14.2 EBITDA 75,762.4 85,368.7 58,695. 68,746.8 77,213.1 영업외손익 2,55.9 2,273.3 1,481.8 1,691.8 1,913.9 순이자수익 1,87.8 1,753.9 1,81.8 1,271.8 1,472.9 외화관련손익 9.4 (454.1)... 지분법손익 21.4 539.8 4. 42. 441. 세전계속사업손익 56,196. 61,16. 31,61.8 39,594.8 45,182.9 당기순이익 42,186.7 44,344.9 23,69.3 28,94.2 32,983.5 지배기업당기순이익 41,344.6 43,89.9 22,93.9 28,73.8 32,785.6 증가율 (Y-Y,%) 85.6 5.1 (48.) 25.3 14.1 NOPLAT 4,271.7 42,696.6 21,987.6 27,669.2 31,586.4 (+) Dep 22,117.4 26,482. 28,575. 3,843.8 33,944.2 (-) 운전자본투자 146.5 5,626.6 2,282.3 1,57.8 3,27. (-) Capex 42,792.2 29,556.4 24,8. 37,. 38,11. OpFCF 19,45.4 33,995.6 23,48.3 19,942.2 24,393.6 3 Yr CAGR & Margins 매출액증가율 (3Yr) 5.1 6.7 3.8 (.4) 1.3 영업이익증가율 (3Yr) 28.9 3.6 1. (1.9) (9.8) EBITDA 증가율 (3Yr) 2.7 21.7 5.5 (3.2) (3.3) 순이익증가율 (3Yr) 21.7 32.5.5 (11.8) (9.4) 영업이익률 (%) 22.4 24.2 13.4 16. 17.1 EBITDA마진 (%) 31.6 35. 26. 29.1 3.5 순이익률 (%) 17.6 18.2 1.2 12.2 13. 주요투자지표 ( 단위 : 원, 배 ) 217 218 219E 22E 221E Per share Data EPS 6,171 6,931 3,646 4,588 5,267 BPS 26,122 33,15 35,131 37,84 41,15 DPS 42,5 1,42 1,42 1,63 1,63 Multiples(x,%) PER 8.3 5.6 12. 9.5 8.3 PBR 2. 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 EV/ EBITDA 4. 2. 3.1 2.5 2.1 배당수익율 83.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 PCR 5. 3.2 5.1 4.2 3.8 PSR 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 재무건전성 (%) 부채비율 4.7 37. 33.6 31.4 29.3 Net debt/equity n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Net debt/ebitda n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 유동비율 218.8 252.9 34.9 322.3 349.3 이자보상배율 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 이자비용 / 매출액.3.3.2.2.1 자산구조투하자본 (%) 54.8 53.5 5.1 5.4 49.7 현금 + 투자자산 (%) 45.2 46.5 49.9 49.6 5.3 자본구조차입금 (%) 8.1 5.6 3.2 2.3 1.5 자기자본 (%) 91.9 94.4 96.8 97.7 98.5
Compliance Notice 당사는본자료를기관투자가등제 3자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 당사는본자료발간일현재해당기업의인수 합병의주선업무를수행하고있지않습니다. 당사는자료작성일현재본자료에서추천한종목의지분을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 당사는본자료발간일현재해당기업의계열사가아닙니다. 당사는동종목에대해자료작성일기준유가증권발행 (DR, CB, IPO, 시장조성등 ) 과관련하여지난 12개월간주간사로참여하지않았습니다. 당사는상기명시한사항외에고지해야하는특별한이해관계가없습니다. 본자료를작성한애널리스트및그배우자는발간일현재해당기업의주식및주식관련파생상품등을보유하고있지않습니다. 본자료의조사분석담당자는어떠한외부압력이나간섭없이본인의의견을정확하게반영하여작성하였습니다. 투자등급비율 BUY : 92% HOLD : 8% SELL : % 투자등급관련사항 아래종목투자의견은향후 12 개월간추천기준일종가대비추천종목의예상목표수익률을의미함. ㆍ STRONG BUY: 추천기준일종가대비 +5% 이상. ㆍ BUY: 추천기준일종가대비 +15% 이상 ~+5% 미만. ㆍ REDUCE: 추천기준일종가대비 -5% 미만. ㆍ HOLD: 추천기준일종가대비 -5% 이상 +15% 미만. ㆍ SUSPENDED: 기업가치전망에불확실성이일시적으로커졌을경우잠정적으로분석중단. 목표가는미제시. 투자의견이시장상황에따라투자등급기준과일시적으로다를수있음당사의투자의견중 STRONG BUY, BUY 는 " 매수 ", HOLD 는 " 중립 ", REDUCE 는 " 매도 " 에해당. 동조사분석자료에서제시된업종투자의견은시장대비업종의초과수익률수준에근거한것으로, 개별종목에대한투자의견과다를수있음. ㆍ Overweight: 해당업종수익률이향후 12 개월동안 KOSPI 수익률을상회할것으로예상하는경우ㆍ Neutral: 해당업종수익률이향후 12 개월동안 KOSPI 수익률과유사할것으로예상하는경우ㆍ Underweight: 해당업종수익률이향후 12 개월동안 KOSPI 수익률을하회할것으로예상되는경우 주 ) 업종수익률은위험을감안한수치 본자료는고객의투자판단을돕기위한정보제공을목적으로작성된참고용자료입니다. 본자료는조사분석담당자가신뢰할수있는자료및정보를토대로작성한것이나, 제공되는정보의완전 성이나정확성을당사가보장하지않습니다. 모든투자의사결정은투자자자신의판단과책임하에하시기바라며, 본자료는투자결과와관련한어떠한법적분쟁의증거로사용될수없습니다. 본 자료는당사의저작물로서모든저작권은당사에있으며, 당사의동의없이본자료를무단으로배포, 복제, 인용, 변형할수없습니다. 최근 2 년간투자의견및목표주가변경내용 8, ( 원 ) 삼성전자목표주가 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 일자 217.3.6 217.3.28 217.4.28 217.1.1 217.11.1 217.12.11 투자의견 BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 목표주가 5, 원 54, 원 6, 원 69, 원 74,원 75, 원 일자 218.6.25 218.11.1 218.12.17 219.1.9 219.2.1 투자의견 BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 목표주가 65, 원 58, 원 54, 원 48, 원 53, 원 목표주가대비실제주가괴리율 일자 목표주가 평균주가 최고가 평균주가괴리율 (%) 최고가괴리율 (%) 217.3.28 54, 원 41,783 원 43,84 원 -22.62-18.81 217.4.28 6, 원 47,73 원 53,62 원 -2.45-1.63 217.1.1 66, 원 53,961 원 55,8 원 -18.24-16.55 217.11.1 69, 원 54,45 원 57,22 원 -21.9-17.7 217.12.11 74, 원 49,649 원 53, 원 -32.91-28.38 218.5.9 75, 원 49,852 원 52,7 원 -33.53-29.73 218.6.25 65, 원 45,534 원 48,45 원 -29.95-25.46 218.11.1 58, 원 42,613 원 45,2 원 -26.53-22.7 218.12.17 54, 원 38,514 원 39,15 원 -28.68-27.5 219.1.9 48, 원 42,621 원 46,4 원 -11.21-3.33 219.2.1 53, 원 - - - - * 괴리율적용기간 : 최근 1 년내목표주가변경일로부터최근종가산출일 (219 년 3 월 11 일 ) ** 괴리율적용산식 : ( 실제주가 - 목표주가 ) / 목표주가