2 0 0 3-1 1
,. 2003,.,. 2004 1
< > < > 1 1. 3 2. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9 3. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15 4. 16. 16. 17. 19
5. 21. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25 6. 28. 28. 28. 29. 29 7. 31. 31. 32. 35. 36 8. 38. 38. 38. 39
< >.,,,.,,,,. -, -,.,,.,,.,,,.,... - 1 -
..,....,..,..,. - 2 -
1..,,,,,.,...,..,.,.. o o o - 3 -
o o < 1> / /. - 4 -
2....,,... 78%, 87%,,...,. 1) 1), :, (2003.3), p.145. - 5 -
. 5 20,. 2).. (Angarsk) (Daquing) 2,400km. 2.5% 2020 11 12%, 3)...,. 2) 20.,. 3),. - 6 -
.,,.... 2 97%.,,. 13% 2020 20%,. (LNG), LNG... - 7 -
. 2002 9,, ASEAN... 10 5, 2 (LNG) 97% 70%... 2001 1 11.7% 2020 13.5% LNG 2001 1,558 7 2015 2,824 4.3%. 2015 1,705. 4),... 4),. - 8 -
.,...., 1990 (hard currency)., 1. 5).... 5),. - 9 -
3..., (RJSF).... 6) -, -,.. 5 10. 7) 6), Issu e Pap er (2003.6.12). 7) IEA. - 10 -
,. 1990 1993. 2010. 8) 2010.., 2010.,,,....,., LNG( ) PNG( )., 8),. - 11 -
.,,..,,..,,, 20% (Asia premium). 9) $0.94/ bbl 80. 10). 9) Oga wa, Yosh ik i, P r op osals on M ea su r es for Redu cin g Asia n P r em iu m of Cr u de Oil, U n it y Am on g Con su m in g Cou n t r ies an d P r epa r at ion of Oil Ma rk et, IE E J 's R esea rch R ep ort, 2002. 10) I : N IRA (vol. 15, n o. 11), 2002, p p. 49, : (2003.3). - 12 -
< 1> 3 ( b/ d) (%) ( $) 4,148 0.87 1,238,166 2,408 0.77 636,162 788 0.54 145,996 7,344-2,020,324 : 2000 ; $0.94/ b.,, p.25..,,..,,... 3,. ASEAN +3 3,,., - 13 -
..,.,,,,....... - 14 -
..... - 15 -
4... 1996 2001 -. 25 7. 11). 2003 1 2003 6 - (Nakhodka) 75.,,. 12) 11) 2003 5 -. (Yu kos) CN PC(Ch in a N ation al Petroleu m Corp ) 1,500. An garsk (Irku tsk) (, D aqin g) 2,400.,. 12) op.cit. - 16 -
.. 13) (1),,,. 3. 12 (Kovykta) 8 4000. (BP) 32.95%,. BP 1997 5 7,100. 1995 (KOGA) 9. 2008 700 30..,,. 3. 3 - - - - - - - - -, 13), (2003.4.2). - 17 -
. 14) 4,000km ~4,800km, 60 90. (2), I II. I 3 7, 3 4. (ExxonMobil) 30%, (SODECO) 15) 30%, (Rosneft) 11.5%, (SMNG-Shelf) 8.5%, ONGC 20%. I (PSA). - 1,400km. LNG. I. 3,000km, 35 40. 14),. 15) SODECO (JN OC), (JAPEX),. - 18 -
.,. II, 1, 3 2 (Shell) 55%, (Mitui) 25%, (Mitsubishi) 20%. II LNG, Shell 30. LNG II I.... (UN ESCAP) (Senior Officials Meeting on Energy Cooperation in N ortheast Asia). UN ESCAP SOM. 2001 10 (Khabarovsk Communique) (SOM) Working Group - 19 -
. 16) 2003 4,,, 4 ADB, IEA, UNECE, APERC UN ESCAP SOM. SOM (Inter-Governmental Steering Committee of Senior Officials), (task force team), (Research Center for Energy Cooperation in North-East Asia). (Senior Officials Committee for Energy Cooperation in N orth-east Asia). (Working Group), UN ESCAP. UN ESCAP. 17) 16) : o,,,, 6. o. o. 17),. - 20 -
5..,,.,,,. 18). (ECSC). ECSC. ECSC. ECSC,,,,. ECSC (High Authority), (Council of Minister), - - (Common Assembly), 18),. - 2 1 -
,, (Court of Justice). ECSC (EEC), (Euratom) (EC).,,. (supranationality)... (intergovermental organization) (IEA). IEA 1974 (International Energy Program). IEA,,, (Coordinated Em ergency Response Measure: CERM). IEA (Governing Council), (Standing Groups),, (Committees), - 22 -
(Secretariat). IEA OECD. OECD OECD. (OPEC). OPEC.. IEA OPEC OECD.. (ICT). (Energy Charter) (Energy Charter Treaty) (legal framework) (code of conducts),. ICT 1994 12 17 1998 4. ICT - 23 -
,,. ICT (Energy Charter Conference),,. ICT.,..... ASEAN (AMEM) (ACE). NAFTA Working Group (NAEWG). - 24 -
.... Mercosur....,.. - 25 -
.. 19). ICT. 6,,,,,. 6 (SOM).,,... 19),,,,..,. - 26 -
.,,. ASEAN +3,,... - 27 -
6..,.,.,,. 4 -. -......, - 28 -
. 20).,,.......,.,, 20) P a ik, Keu n -Wook, Gas an d Oil in N orth eas t A s ia, Th e Royal In st it u t e of In t ern at ion al Affa ir s, 1995, p. xvii. - 29 -
., ASEAN ASEAN +3.. - 30 -
7.. (1),.,, ( )... (2).,.,,, - 3 1 -
.. (TSR, TKR, TCR),.,. (agreem ent).. (1)...,. (LNG) (PNG) - 32 -
. 21) (hidden cost).,,.. (political risk cover), (IFC) (MIGA). (2).,.,, 2 1) 2003. I,. - 33 -
. (3), (IMF, World Bank, ADB, EBRD).,. (N EADB). N EADB,,, EU.,. (4).,.,. - 34 -
.... (1),... (2). - 35 -
,.,... ( ).,..,.,,..,,. - 36 -
. 3. 3. (Energy Charter Treaty)... - 37 -
8.,....... (1) 3 ( ), (2) 6 ( +,, ), (3) ASEAN / ASEAN +3, (4).... - 38 -
.. (1),... (2).,. (pioneering). (3). - 39 -
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-, ; ; ; - ; ; ; ; - - - - - - - - - 4 1 -