. 2011 4.0% 2010 5%. 6 4.3% 0.3% 2010 6.4% 10 3.1% 1.6%. 6 2.2% 0.6%. 9.5%, 7.8% 2012 4.0%. 6 4.5% 0.5% 6.1%. 6 6.4%. 1.9%. 6 2.6% 0.7%. 2.7% 1.8%, 1.7% 1.1%, 2.9% 2.3%. IMF IMF 2
3 3
4
8 5
S&P : GDP : :, PMI : FRB 2011 : 2.7% 1.7% FRB 2012 : 3.4% 2.1% : FOMC, Fed 6
4,470 1%, 7
2011 7 20%, 50% GDP 100% / 3 SG(Aa2 Aa3), CA(Aa1 Aa2) ECB / (EFSF) 4400. 8
EFSF 9
EFSF 10
EFSF 11
12
2011 (4.2% 3.9%). 2012 (4.5% 3.8%) - : 2011 1.9% 1.5%, 2012 2.4% 1.5% - : 2011 2.0% 1.7%, 2012 1.2% 0.5% - : 2011 6.6% 6.4%, 2012 6.7% 6.1% - : 2011 9.0%, 2012 9.0% 8.7% 13
14
15
2012 16
17
/ : 18
/ : 19
20
21
(GDP, 2011 ) (GDP, 2010 ) 22
G10 G10 1%,,,,,, G10 1% 23
24
/GDP 25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
2012 2011 GDP 1Q 0.4%, 2Q 1.0%.,,.,,. 9 8 4,470 /, FRB 8 FOMC 2013, 9 FOMC..., 2012. 2011 1.6%, 2012 1.9%. 35
2012,,.,. ECB,. 2012,. ECB. 2011 1.6%, 2012 0.9%. 36
2012 2011 2 GDP,. GDP 2011 0.2%, 2012 2.1%., 3 2 6.6%. 2011,. 1%.,.,.. 2011 0.2%, 2012 2.1%. 37
( : %) 38
( : %) 39
( : %) 40
41
2012,, 1), 2), 3) 2012 9% ECB 4 25bp, 7 25bp.,, 2012, / 2013 2 42
: Fed 2013 3. : AAA ECB AAA : 10 43
44
2012 2011 GDP 1Q 0.4%, 2Q 1.0%.,,.,,. 9 8 4,470 /, FRB 8 FOMC 2013, 9 FOMC..., 2012. 2011 1.6%, 2012 1.9%. 45
( : %) 46
2012 2011 GDP 1Q 0.4%, 2Q 1.0%.,,.,,. 9 8 4,470 /, FRB 8 FOMC 2013, 9 FOMC..., 2012. 2011 1.6%, 2012 1.9%. 47
/ 8-30.7 : 9-17.5 8-3.5% 8 55.7, 63.7 : 9 57.8 8 8 48
Fed, 9% 2012 30 49
S&P (?) S&P 2 14 3.,, S&P 10 30 50
2.1 1) 1, 2) 10 2.4 Tea Party,. 10 2012 51
: 1) /IT, 2), 3), 4), 2011. 8 26,. 52
Operation Twist FRB,. FOMC. FRB,. FRB,., 8 FOMC 2013. 53
3 2013 Fed 2013 0.25% Fed 11/3 2011 6 2,, Fed 6 2. 3,, 9% FRB 6 FOMC 54
FOMC 2011 FRB, 8 FOMC 3 Fed FOMC 55
4,470 1%, 56
8/2 1.2 ~1.5 (Super Committee) 57
58
59
60
8 7 (Soft Patch: ) 8 61
S&P : GDP : :, PMI : 2011 : 2.7% 1.7% 2012 : 3.4% 2.1% : FOMC, Fed 62
4,470 1%, 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
PMI? 79
2011 12 5 (2011~2015 ), :. 2011 GDP +9.5%. 2012 9.0%. 80
,, 15% 81
: 2011., /. / 82
83
2012,,.,. ECB,. 2012,. ECB. 2011 1.6%, 2012 0.9%. 84
( : %) 85
2011 7 20%, 50% GDP 100% / 3 SG(Aa2 Aa3), CA(Aa1 Aa2) ECB / (EFSF) 4400. 86
87
88
89
90
91
92
:. 2013. 50% 10. CDS ECB : 93
EU 94
(EFSF) : EFSF 95
EU GDP 96
(OSE), 151 2 10%, 2 542. 2013 455. 97
,, - EMU -EFSF : 4400 - - 98
1) EFSF, -. -EFSF 2) : Swap - EFSF, ECB -, 99
EFSF 100
EFSF 101
EFSF 102
EFSF 103
104
GDP 105
106
18% ( ) 40% 530 220,, 1998 8, 2001 12, 6~20%,. 107
108
109
110
111
112
2012 2011 2 GDP,. GDP 2011 0.2%, 2012 2.1%., 3 2 6.6%. 2011,. 1%.,.,.. 2011 0.2%, 2012 2.1%. 113
( : %) 114
LCD/LED TV LCD/LED TV 115
. 6 -, 266,, 200-3 6 BOJ - 2010 LCD, LED, PDP : 1800 2400-12 2011 1 116
70%, 5% 1,300, / 1990 117
118
119
120
3 2011 GDP +0.0%. : 1 GDP : 2012 GDP +2.2% 121
GDP 2 :.. 10% /IT 10 122
.,, 2011. 2 2011 / 123
2011, 2011 G7, 1), 2), 3) 2011 G7 70, (BOJ) 2013 BOJ 124
125
: : 126
127
128
129
130