에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 13, Number 2, September 2014 : pp. 199~230 에너지 기후변화정책의양립가능성평가 *: 한국의전력부문을중심으로 199
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[ 그림 1] 발전설비의에너지원별발전용량및연식구조 (2010 년 ) 204
[ 그림 2] 6 차계획의기술별신규발전용량 205
[ 그림 3] 6 차계획의누적 (2010~2029) 신규발전용량및투자비 206
< 표 1> 6 차계획의전력수요전망 207
[ 그림 4] 전력소비량의연평균증가율 208
[ 그림 5] 연간총전력소비량실적및전망 209
[ 그림 6] 발전원별연료비용변화 210
[ 그림 7] 발전기술별전력균등화비용 (2010 년 ) 및이용률 211
< 표 2> 주요발전기술의기준이용률과최대이용률전제 212
< 표 3> 시나리오의구성과전제 213
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[ 그림 8] 에너지원별발전용량및비중 215
[ 그림 9] 주요시나리오의에너지원별발전량 216
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[ 그림 10] 수요감소와재생에너지확대가천연가스와석탄발전에미치는영향 218
[ 그림 11] 시나리오별온실가스배출경로 219
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[ 그림 12] 시나리오별총연료비용 221
[ 그림 13] 시나리오별유연탄발전과가스복합발전의이용률변화 222
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[ 그림 14] 확정설비의자연퇴화에따른온실가스배출경로 224
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접수일 (2014 년 1 월 22 일 ), 수정일 (2014 년 8 월 16 일 ), 게재확정일 (2014 년 6 월 2 일 ) 226
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ABSTRACT This study assesses the compatibility of current energy policy with climate change policy by simulating the feasible domain of GHG emissions in Korean electricity sector and evaluating whether the mitigation pledge can be achieved, based on the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand. With electricity generation capacity fixed until 2030 according to the 6th Plan, we simulate 6 alternative scenarios, each of which is the different combination of electricity demand, utilization of renewable technologies, and fuel substitution. We found that even the lowest emission pathway, which requires unprecedented combination of demand reduction, enhanced renewable generation, and fuel substitution, can not reach the pledge level in 2020. The lowest emission scenario also inevitably incurs additional fuel cost and stranded cost on already-installed coal capacity. These findings provide a supporting evidence that current energy and climate change policy are incompatible and either of them is not binding at least in an economic sense. The characteristics of both energy system and associated climate change problem imply that energy policy making should take a long-term perspective and secure the consistency with climate policy goal. Such harmonized forwarding-looking energy policy is necessary conditions for cost-effective carbon mitigation. Key Words : Energy Policy, Climate Change Policy, Electricity Sector, Energy Model, Reduction Pledge, Emission Gap JEL Codes : Q21, Q41, Q47, Q48 230