중소기업경기지수및경영환경지수 개발에관한연구 - 제조업중심으로 - A Study on Development of the Business Indicators in SMEs focused on manufacturing

요약

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125 IPISA 124 ISISA 120 120 115 110 105 100 95 116 112 108 104 100 96 90 92 85 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 88 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 115 IOISA 106 IOI_1SA 110 104 105 102 100 100 95 98 90 96 85 94 80 92 75 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 90 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

125 120 115 중소기업제조업 전체제조업 KIET(2000) 110 105 100 95 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110 (%) 105 100 95 90 중소기업제조업 전체제조업 KIET(2000) 85 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 경기지수 BSI_Kbiz BSI_BOK 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

140 130 120 110 내수수출대외여건투자고용자금사정 100 90 80 70 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

125 120 115 중소제조업경기지수 경영환경종합지수 110 105 100 95 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

중소기업경기지수및경영환경지수개발에관한연구

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증가지표수 보합지표수 구성지표수

긍정적인응답업체수 부정적인응답업체수전체응답업체수

μ σ μ σ μ μ σ μ σ μ μ σ σ

γμ γ γγ φ φ φ η ~ Σ

γμ φ φ φ βη ~ βββ ε Σ

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3 순환변동치 경기종합지수추세 4)

5) 6)

IPISA 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ISISA 124 120 116 112 108 104 100 96 92 88 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 115 IOISA 106 IOI_1SA 110 104 105 102 100 100 95 98 90 96 85 94 80 92 75 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 90 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7)

125 120 115 110 중소기업제조업 전체제조업 KIET(2000) 105 100 95 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

110 (%) 105 100 95 90 중소기업제조업 전체제조업 KIET(2000) 85 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

6 (%) 4 2 0-2 -4-6 05 06 07 08 09 10 중소기업제조업전체제조업 KIET(2000) -8

120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 경기지수 BSI_Kbiz BSI_BOK 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

8) 대부분의변수에서단위근이존재하였으며, 부문별지표에서대체로공적분관계가존재하는것으로나타남에따라, 본연구에서는동행성검증에있어수준변수를이용하였다. 그결과모든변수에서동행성및선행성이관계가존재하는것으로추정되었다. 이에대한자세한설명은생략함.

130 RJOP 108 EMPSA 120 WAGESA 125 120 115 106 104 115 110 105 110 102 100 105 100 95 100 98 95 90 85 90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 96 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 INT KOQ DEF 108 160 240 104 100 140 200 96 92 88 84 120 100 80 160 120 80 76 60 80 72 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 DEFN YCB 280 120 240 110 200 100 160 90 120 80 80 70 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 180 IXXSA 130 IPXX 160 120 140 110 120 100 100 90 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

140 ISVI 120 TOT 130 110 120 100 110 90 100 80 90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 150 IFMSA 200 VCISA 140 180 130 120 110 100 160 140 120 100 80 90 60 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 102 OECD 180 DUBAI 101 160 140 100 120 99 100 98 80 60 97 40 96 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 120 VIX 240 CDS 100 200 80 160 60 120 40 80 20 40 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

140 130 120 110 내수수출대외여건투자고용자금사정 100 90 80 70 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

116 112 108 104 100 96 92 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

125 120 115 중소제조업경기지수 경영환경종합지수 110 105 100 95 90 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

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기본연구 10-21 중소기업경기지수및경영환경지수개발에관한연구 본서내용의무단전재를금함 ISBN 978-89-6179-138-0 93320 정가 12,000 원