03?-108?1穩茱

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1 *.., (global imbalances)......, *

2 ..,..,.,.. (golden age)...,.,,...,

3 .,... credit creation.,,.,...,..,

4 .,. /,. (bimetallic standard). )., (gold or silver coin standard) / (gold or silver commodity money standard). )..., 1) (Lydia, BC 6 )) 1:13. 2, :15. Encyclopedia Wikipedia, Gold Standard, ( p. 1 Hugo S. Cunningham, Gold and Silver Standard, ( p. 2. :,,,,, ( referrals/metals /silver/silver-standard.html). 2) (gold exchange standard). (Bordo) (commodity money standard). (durable), (recognizable), (storable and portable), (divisible), (standardized). ( ),. Michael D. Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 63, No. 5(May 1981), pp. 2-3.

5 ... ).. ( ),. (de facto). ) (gold coin standard full commodity standard),... (domestic price and real output stability) (balance-of-payments equilibrium) 3) Richard N. Cooper, The International Monetary System: Essays in World Economics (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1987), p ) Michael D. Bordo, Gold Standard, ( p (silver guinea), (Ibid.) (bimetallic standard)... : Angela Redish, The Evolution of the Gold Standard in England, The Journal of Economic History L/4, December 1990; Milton Friedman, Bimetallism Revisited, Journal of Economic Perspectives 4/4, Fall 1990; Charles P. Kindleberger, A Financial History of Western Europe (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1984).

6 . ),. (paper money),. (bank note: fiduciary money), (gold standard) (mixed gold standard managed gold standard). ),...,. ),. 5) Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, p. 4.., 1960 (gold coin standard) GDP 2.5%. Milton Friedman, A Program for Monetary Stability (Fordham University Press, 1959) (Ibid., ). ( ).. (real output) (Ibid.). 6) 1821 (Ibid., p. 3).. Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, p. 5. (Ibid.) 7) Ibid.

7 ,. )..,. ).. ), 8).. 9) Christopher M. Meissner, A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (September 2002), p ) Ibid., %. Jeffry A. Frieden, Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2006), p %. Barry Eichengreen, Sterling s Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (May 2005), p. 4.

8 .,,,.. (price-specie flow).,.,. (The Bank of England). ),. ) (pure gold coin standard). ) 11) (bank rate: discount rate on money market paper). (domestic expending) (price),. Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, p ) Ibid. 6), 7). 13) (Eichengreen) (gold coin standard)

9 ,., (managed gold standard). ).. %. ).,. %. ).,,, (gold bullion standard). Eichengreen, Sterling s Past, Dollar s Future, p. 3. (gold bullion). 19 (Ibid.). 14) Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, p (Peel's Bank Act) (fiat money)... Rudiger Dornbusch and Jacob A. Frankel, The Gold Standard and The Bank of England in The Crisis of 1847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (December 1982), pp. 1-2, 25-26, ) Bordo, The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, p ) Ibid.

10 . ).., ( ),. ).., 17). 10). 18) Frieden, Global Capitalism, pp Meissner, A New World Order, p. 34. (Frieden) : 20,, Frieden, Global Capitalism, p (multilateral institutions), (maturation of markets),. Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, and Douglas A. Irwin, Is Globalization Today Really Different Than Globalization A Hundred Years Ago? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (June 1999), pp , : Stephen D. Krasner, ed., International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983). (international regime),,, (Ibid., p. 1). : Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984).

11 ,.,.... % %. ) (GNP). GNP, GNP,,. ),,. ).,. ).., 19) Eichengreen, Sterling s Past, Dollar's Future, p ) John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2001), pp. 64, 66, Table ) Frieden, Global Capitalism, p ) Ibid. (mass production) (mass consumption)

12 .. ) (capital/worker)..,.. ).. (iron and steel),.,,. ). ) political impact %, /4 (Ibid., p. 62). 23) Douglas A. Irwin, How did the United States Become a Net Exporter of Manufactured Goods? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (April 2000), Figure : (Ibid., Figure 1). 24) Ibid. Figure 2. 25) Ibid., p ) Ibid. p (overvalued). (capital formation rate) ( ). Barry Eichengreen, Hegemonic Stability Theories of the

13 .. (domestic import competition),. (Corn Laws),., (Joseph Chamberlain), (Tariff Reform League),. ), ).. International Monetary System, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (March 1987), p ) Frieden, Global Capitalism, p :.,., (Ibid.). 28) Ibid., pp

14 ,.. ),,.. (legal tender)..,. ). (international reserves), ) 29) 39) 40). 30)... (gold-bullion standard). Arther I. Bloomfield, Gold Standard, Douglas Greenwald ed., Encyclopedia of Economics (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1982), p ) Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression: , revised and enlarged edition (Berkeley: University of Califonia press, 1986), pp (gold-exchange standard) : (reserves). Bloomfield, Gold Standard, p. 452.

15 .. (deflationary pressure). ). (stagnation) (unemployment).. ),. ) ( ),. )... ) (Woodrow Wilson). 32) Encyclopedia Wikipedia, Gold Standard, p ) Frieden, Global Capitalism, p ) Kindleberger, The World in Depression, p ) Barry Eichengreen and Peter Temin, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 6060, pp ; Frieden, Global Capitalism, p (Keynes) :. Frieden, Global Capitalism, p. 153,.. 36) , 50% (new loans) 50% 1/4(25%) (Ibid., p. 141)..

16 . ( JP Morgan). ), (Emergency Tariff Act), - (Fordney-McCumber Tariff Act) - (Smoot -Hawley Tariff Act). ).,. ),,...., 37) Ibid., pp (Ibid.) (Dawes and Young Plans) J.P. Morgan (Ibid., p. 146). 38) U.S. Department of State, Protectionism in the Interwar Period, ( /id/17606.htm). 39), : (hegemonic ideology) (counterproductive policy), (rhetoric). Eichengreen and Temin, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, pp

17 ,.. ),...,,. ) 40) (Kindleberger) ( ) (Keohane). : Robert O. Keohane, The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International economic Regimes, , Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson and Alexander L. George, eds., Changes in the International System (Boulder: Westview Press, 1980), pp (stabilizer)..,,. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, p ) (Eichengree). Eichengreen, Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System. 41) , 22% 22% 11%., ( 10%). Richard Duncan, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons(Asia) Pte

18 (money supply).. ). %, %. ). (Federal Reserves),. (liquidity) (plant and equipment),.,. ).. - Ltd., 2005), p. 56, Table ) Ibid., p. 57. Table ( 15%), (all commercial bank loans) ( 16%). 43) Ibid., pp , Table ) Ibid., p. 59.

19 ...,...,,,.. (International Clearing Union) (Stabilization Fund).. (ICU) (supernational central bank), (bancor).,..,

20 .. ). %. ),,. ). ).... (gold shortage),,.. 45) Michael D. Bordo, The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview, Michael D. Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds., A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), pp ; Benjamin J. Cohen, Organizing the World's Money: The Political Economy of International Monetary Relations (New York: Basic Books, 1977), pp , ( ),. 46) Barry Eichengreen, Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper (May 2004), p ) Bloomfield, Gold Standard, p. 454; Encyclopedia Wikipedia, Gold Standard, pp ) Bordo, The Bretton Woods International Monetary System, p. 31;

21 ,. ).....,.,.,.,,., (Triffin s dilemma). (Robert Triffin), 49) , Cooper, The International Monetary System, pp

22 ,.. ),,..,. ),,.,.,, (global imbalances).., 50) Robert Triffin, Gold and the Dollar Crisis: The Future of Convertibility, revised ed. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1961), pp , ) (exorbitant privilege) Michael D. Bordo, Historical Perspective on Global Imbalances, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (May 2005), pp IMF. Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), pp

23 .,..,. ( ). )., (earning). ),,..,. )...,, (anti-inflationary).., 52) Anton Brender and Florence Pisani, Global imbalances: Is the world economy really at risk? Translated (from French) into English by Francis Wells (Belgium: Dexia 2007), p. 10.,,.. Eichengreen, Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, p ) Brender and Pisani, Global imbalance, p ) Ibid., p. 14.

24 ,, (potential output). ).,,.,. ),.. %. %. - %. ),. ).,.,, GDP %., (Treasury Bonds), (agency),,. ) 55) The Economist, The New Titan, print edition(sep 14th 2006), p ) Ibid. 57) (Federal Funfd). U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Federal Funds(effective), ( gov).. The China Business Forum, The China Effect: Assessing the Impact on the US Economy of Trade and Investment with China, A Report by Oxford Economics and The Signal Group(January 2006), p ) U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Federal Funds(effective). 59) Brad Stser and Arpana Pandey, China s $1.7 Trillion Bet, Council on Foreign

25 ...,.,.,. ).. ). ),, %. %,. %,. %. ),,, Relations, Working Paper, January 2009, p ) The Economist, Unnatural causes of debt, print edition(sep 14th 2006), p ) Duncan, The Dollar Crisis, p ). ( ).,. Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setset The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances, November 2004, Revised Draft ( -Setser-US-External-Imbalances. pdf), p ) U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Federal Funds(effective).

26 . (subprime mortgage crisis).,.,. (golden age)... (the rules of the game)..,.....,...,. )

27 .,, ( ).,....,..,..,..,.. ) 64) (Ferguson). Niall Ferguson, The Asent of Money (New York: The Penguin Press, 2008), p ) Giulio M. Gallarotti, The Anatomy of an International Monetary Regime: The Classical

28 ,.., (John M. Keynes).,,. ),., ( ).., (global imbalances). ). ( ) ( ) (central bank Gold Standard, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), 13. (Ibid., p. 14). 66) Frieden, Global Capitalism, p. 152, 67), : ,, 2009/03/10.

29 reserves), ( ). )...,.,. )....., (saving glut) ) Duncan, The Dollar Crisis, p. 56. : (discipline), (imbalances).,, (credit expansion) (Ibid., p. 59). 69),. :, :, 5 / 1, 2009, pp

30 Bloomfield, Arther I., Gold Standard, Douglas Greenwald ed., Encyclopedia of Economics (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1982). Bordo, Michael D., Gold Standard, ( , The Classical Gold Standard-Some Lessons for Today, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 63, No. 5(May 1981) , The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview, Michael D. Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds., A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993) , Historical Perspective on Global Imbalances, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (May 2005) , Barry Eichengreen and Douglas A. Irwin, Is Globalization Today Really Different Than Globalization A Hundred Years Ago? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (June 1999). Brender, Anton, and Florence Pisani, Global imbalances: Is the world economy really at risk? Translated (from French) into English by Wells, Francis (Belgium: Dexia 2007). Cohen, Benjamin J., Organizing the World s Money: The Political Economy of International Monetary Relations (New York: Basic Books, 1977). Cooper, Richard N., The International Monetary System: Essays in World Economics (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1987). Cunningham, Hugo S., Gold and Silver Standard, ( Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Jacob A. Frankel, The Gold Standard and The Bank of England in The Crisis of 1847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (December 1982). Duncan, Richard, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons(Asia) Pte Ltd., 2005). Eichengreen, Barry, Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (March 1987) , Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996).

31 , Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper (May 2004) , Sterling s Past, Dollar s Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (May 2005) , and Peter, Temin, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper Encyclopedia Wikipedia, Gold Standard, ( Ferguson, Niall, The Asent of Money (New York: The Penguin Press, 2008). Frieden, Jeffry A., Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2006). Friedman, Milton, A Program for Monetary Stability (Fordham University Press, 1959) , Bimetallism Revisited, Journal of Economic Perspectives 4/4, Fall Gallarotti, Giulio M., The Anatomy of an International Monetary Regime: The Classical Gold Standard, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). Irwin, Douglas A., How did the United States Become a Net Exporter of Manufactured Goods? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No (April 2000). Keohane, Robert O., The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International Economic Regimes, , Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson and Alexander L. George, eds., Changes in the International System (Boulder: Westview Press, 1980) , After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984). Kindleberger, Charles P., A Financial History of Western Europe (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1984) , The World in Depression: , revised and enlarged edition (Berkeley: University of Califonia press, 1986). Krasner, Stephen D., ed., International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983). Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2001). Meissner, Christopher M., A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the

32 Classical Gold Standard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 9233 (September 2002). Redish, Angela, The Evolution of the Gold Standard in England, The Journal of Economic History L/4, December Roubini, Nouriel, and Brad Setset, The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances, November 2004, Revised Draft ( stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/roubini -Setser-US-External-Imbalances.pdf). Stser, Brad, and Arpana Pandey, China s $1.7 Trillion Bet, Council on Foreign Relations, Working Paper, January The China Business Forum, The China Effect: Assessing the Impact on the US Economy of Trade and Investment with China, A Report by Oxford Economics and The Signal Group(January 2006). The Economist, The New Titan, print edition(sep 14th 2006). The Economist, Unnatural causes of debt, print edition(sep 14th 2006). Triffin, Robert, Gold and the Dollar Crisis: The Future of Convertibility, revised ed. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1961). U.S. Department of State, Protectionism in the Interwar Period, ( r/pa/ho/time/id /17606.htm). U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Federal Funds(effective), ( gov).

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