217 멀티에셋전략
1 (%) Composite leading index 14 13 12 OECD EM big 6 11 1 99 98 97 96 9 94 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 6
(% YoY) 비농가취업자수증가율 ( 좌축 ) 실업률 ( 우축 ) (%) 8 11 6 4 2-2 -4 Reaganomics Trumpnomics -6 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 (% YoY) 198s 2s 21s (% YoY) 8 6 Germany US Germany US Germany US 8 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 21 23 2 27 21 212 214 216 218-6 217 멀티에셋전략 7
(USD/bbl) 12 Oil prices, adjusted by US CPI (L) EM ex. Asia GDP (R) (% YoY) 9 1 7 8 6 3 4 1 2-1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 (% YoY) GDP growth rate 7 6 EM ex. Asia Advanced G7 + China 4 3 2 1-1 -2 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21-3 (pt, 198yr=1) 19 17 1 Each relative GDP compared with world GDP Emerging and developing Asia Emerging and developing Europe Latin America MENA Sub-Saharan Africa 4 3 3 2 Each share of world GDP based on purchsing power parity (%) China ASEAN India 13 2 11 9 1 1 7 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 8
2 Change in % share of 1-64 aged in total population 216~22 221~22 (USD bn) 7 India (L) Foreign direct investment in China (R) (USD bn) 3 1 6 3 2-1 4 2-2 3 1-3 2 1-4 1 - United States Western Europe Korea China India ASEAN 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 1 Literacy rate (%) ASEAN _ Youth(aged 1~24) ASEAN _ Adult + Youth(1~ ) 1 9 School enrollment rate (%) ASEAN _ Secondary 9 8 7 India _ Youth(aged 1~24) India _ Adult + Youth(1~ ) 8 7 6 India _ Secondary 6 4 3 2 ASEAN _ Tertiary India _ Tertiary 1 4 199 199 2 2 21 21 1994 1998 22 26 21 214 217 멀티에셋전략 9
(% of GDP) Manufacturing Services 4 4 3 28 21 212 214 216 6 (% of GDP) 4 3 2 1 Services Manufacturing Agriculture, fishery 212 21 218 221 224 7 6 4 3 2 1 (% of GDP) Services Manufacturing 21 212 214 216 218 22 1
(% of GDP) 3 2 2 1 1981.2Q 144% 일본 가계 + 비금융기업비금융기업정부 199.1Q 213% (% of GDP) 3 2 2 1 1988.4Q 97% 한국 가계 + 비금융기업비금융기업정부 1997.4Q 164% (% of GDP) 3 2 2 1 중국 가계 + 비금융기업비금융기업정부 29.1Q 18% 216.3Q 21% 1 1 1 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 19881991992199419961998222 26 28 21 212 214 216 (%p) 중국도시화율상승폭 (RMB bn) Total profits 1.8 1.6 1.4 도시화목표 (22 년 6%) 달성을위한최소상승속도 1,8 1,6 1,4 Consumer goods & new growth vehicle Industrial & material goods, old growth vehicle 1.2 1,2 1. 1,.8 8.6 6.4 4.2 2. 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 217 멀티에셋전략 11
(% of total export) Korea's export by destination(in Asia) (%) 3 가계순저축률 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 23 2 27 29 211 213 21 217 India ASEAN China 2 2 1 1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 12
1 11 11 1 FRB 금리인상기 달러실질실효가치 1 9 9 8 8 7 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 217 멀티에셋전략 13
14
1 14 (pt, 21yr=1) USD real effective value against major currencies 13 12 11 1 9 +1 std Ave. -1 std 8 (pt, 21yr=1) USD real effective value against 13 EM ex. China 12 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 1996 2 24 28 212 216 +1 std Ave. -1 std (pt, 21yr=1) 11 1 Real effective value of important 1 EM currency ex. China yuan 1 9 9 +1 std Ave. 8-1 std 8 7 7 199 2 2 21 21 217 멀티에셋전략 1
(pt, 21yr=1) 12 Euro, real effective value 1999 21 23 2 27 29 211 213 21 217 219 12 14 11 11 US (L, L) 13 11 1 Euro area(r, U) 12 1 +1 std 9 11 1 Ave. 8 1 9 9-1 std 7 6 9 8 8 7 8 4 6 7 1996 2 24 28 212 216 3 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 1.2 Credit risk index(the lower, the riskier) (L) Currency valuation(the higher, the more overvalued) (R) 3.8 2.4 1. -.4-1 -.8-2 -1.2-3 Turkey Brazil Colombia South Africa India Chile Mexico Indonesia Poland Hungary China Malaysia Korea Philippines Russia Thailand 16
.4 금융위기전 (22 년 7 월 ~ 28 년 6 월 ).3 금융위기후 (211 년 1 월 ~ ).3.2.2.1.1. (USD bn) (%) (USD bn, 12M moving sum) 2 2 Short term external debt, amount (L) Short term external debt, ratio to foreign reserve (R) 1 9 8 1 1 Current account Equity investment net inflow Bond investment net inflow Short term overseas borrowing 7 1 6 1 4 3 2-1 24 26 28 21 212 214 216-1 23 2 27 29 211 213 21 217 217 멀티에셋전략 17
- 당사는자료작성일현재 LG 디스플레이를기초자산으로하는주식옵션에대해유동성공급자 (LP) 업무를수행하고있습니다. - 당사는본자료를제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. - 본자료를작성한애널리스트는자료작성일현재조사분석대상법인의금융투자상품및권리를보유하고있지않습니다. - 본자료는외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이애널리스트의의견이정확하게반영되었음을확인합니다. - 본고지내용은 217 년 월 12 일기준으로작성되었습니다. 본조사분석자료는당사의리서치센터가신뢰할수있는자료및정보로부터얻은것이나, 당사가그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없으므로투자자자신의판단과책임하에종목선택이나투자시기에대한최종결정을하시기바랍니다. 따라서본조사분석자료는어떠한경우에도고객의증권투자결과에대한법적책임소재의증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 본조사분석자료의지적재산권은당사에있으므로당사의허락없이무단복제및배포할수없습니다. 217 멀티에셋전략 87