이보고서는 해외원자력발전및방사성폐기물처리관련규제의사례연구 에대한국회예산정책처의정책연구용역사업에의한것임 해외원자력발전및방사성폐기물 처리관련규제의사례연구 2013. 7.

해외원자력발전및방사성폐기물 처리관련규제의사례연구 2013. 7. 연구책임자진상현 ( 경북대학교행정학부교수 ) 연구원한동희 ( 경북대학교에너지환경경제연구소연구원 ) 연구보조원황인창 ( 네덜란드암스테르담자유대학박사과정 ) 보조원김동형 ( 경북대학교행정학과학부과정 )

제출문 본보고서를귀국회예산정책처의정책연구과제 해외원자력발전및방사성폐기물처리관련규제의사례연구 의 최종보고서로제출합니다. 2013. 7.

요약문 한국의원자력의존적인정책구조 한국은전력소비를늘린뒤증가된수요를충족시키기위해원전을추가적으로건설한다는원자력의존적인정책을추진하는대표적인국가임 - 1978년고리 1호기의가동으로세계 21번째원전보유국이되었음 - 2009년에는 UAE와의계약을통해서원전수출국으로성장했으며, 2012년현재한국은원전설비용량기준으로세계 5위의원전대국임 그렇지만 2011년 3월에발생한후쿠시마원전사고로인해세계각국의원자력정책이급격히변화하는추세임 - 사고당사국인일본은탈원전국가전략을발표했고, 독일은수명연장을취소한채탈원전계획을앞당겼으며, 세계 1위의프랑스마저도 80% 의원자력의존도를 50% 로낮추겠다는목표를설정해놓고있음 - 국내에서도박근혜대통령이대선공약으로 원자력의안전운영 을최우선적으로고려하겠다는공약을제시한상태이기때문에확대중심의기존원자력정책에대한수정이불가피한실정임 원자력비용관련국내 외의논란 원전건설비용의증가 - 세계적으로 59개의원전이건설중이지만, 18기는수십년동안공사가지연되고있으며, 나머지 41기는최근 5년이내에건설이시작되었지만착공일을잡지못해계획대로완공될수있을지불투명한원전임 - 게다가건설중인원전의 4분의 3이중국, 인도, 러시아에서진행되고있으며, 불가리아와일본에서는건설중인원전마저중단된상태임 - 이처럼신규원전의건설이중단되는근본적인이유는비용증가때문임. 유럽의원전건설비용은지난 10년동안 4배로늘어났으며, 미국의와츠바원전은건설비용이최근 5년간 60% 가늘어난상태임 원자력유지 보수비용의증가 - 미국의원자력은저렴한천연가스에밀려경쟁력을잃어가고있을뿐만아니라안전규제의강화로인해유지 보수비용마저감당할수없는실정임 - 원전업체인도미니온은경제성악화때문에위스콘신주의기존원전을 2013년부터정지하기로결정했으며, 계획중인원전인수도포기한상태임 - 대규모원전업체인엑셀론도 2029년까지운전허가를받았던오이스터크릭원전을유지비용의부담때문에 2019년에멈추기로결정함 - i -

후쿠시마이후의달라진세계 - 게다가후쿠시마사고를통해서안전성, 경제성, 환경성, 사회성등의거의모든측면에서원자력관련논란이제기되고있는실정임 - 이에본연구에서는후쿠시마사고이후선진국의강화된안정성기준을한국에반영하기위해국가별규제의수준과비용을검토하고자함 - 구체적으로는두개부분, 즉원자력관련운영규제및신형원전의설비기준에관한사례와방사성페기물처리지침및폐로과정에서의원전철거비관련사례를경제성이라는측면에서조사하고자함 연구결과의종합 원자력안전강화및신형원자로비용 - 후쿠시마사고이후원자력의안전조치강화로인한추가비용은 1MW 설비용량당최소값으로 2.1억원을제시한일본이가장낮았고, 남아프리카공화국이 3.2억원으로가장높았으며, 평균비용은 2.6억원 /MW이었음 - 신형원자로의경우안전성이강화된프랑스의 EPR 원자로가 kw당 800만 원정도로가장높았고, 일본의 ABWR이 360만원으로가장낮았으며, 국가 별평균비용은 650만원 /kw이었음 방사성폐기물처분및원자로폐쇄비용 - 고준위폐기물은나라별로우라늄톤당 4억원 ~11억원이소요되었음 - ii -

국가단위비용 원화 참고문헌 미국 백만원 감사원 년보고서 프랑스 백만원 방사성폐기물관리청 년보고서 영국 백만원 개원자력폐쇄국 년보고서 핀란드 백만원 고준위폐기물사업자포시바 년보고서 스웨덴 백만원 방사성폐기물관리사업자 년보고서 - 기타방사성폐기물은저준위폐기물의경우m3당수백만원의처리비용이 소요되는데반해, 중준위폐기물과중저준위장기폐기물은m3당수천만원 의처리비용이소요되는것으로나타남. 한편초저준위폐기물의처리비용 은m3당 70 만원정도였음 국가폐기물성상단위비용 원화 비고 참고문헌 미국저준위 백만원 반웰 저준위폐기물처분장운영회사 프랑스 영국 중저준위단기 저준위 초저준위 백만원 백만원 백만원 방사성폐기물관리청 년보고서 중준위 백만원 원자력폐쇄국 년보고서 저준위 초저준위 백만원 원자력폐쇄국 년보고서 핀란드중저준위 백만원 년보고서 스웨덴중준위장기 백만원 방사성폐기물관리사업자 년보고서중준위단기 백만원 - 원자로폐쇄비용은핀란드와스웨덴이 MW 당 2 억원내외였던반면에, 1 세 대원자로가폐쇄된미국 (8 억원 /MW) 과영국 (17 억원 /MW) 은비용이많이 소요되었음 국가원자로유형단위비용 원화 참고문헌 미국 억원 년의회연구보고서 프랑스 억원 회계감사원 년보고서 영국 억원 에너지기후변화부 년보고서 핀란드 억원 발주부퍼탈 연구소의 년보고서 스웨덴 억원 발주부퍼탈 연구소의 년보고서 - iii -

목차 - iv -

- v -

표 - vi -

- vii -

그림 - viii -

- ix -

- x -

- 1 -

- 2 -

1) http://www.iaea.org/pris/home.aspx - 3 -

- 4 -

- 5 -

Country Developer and US-Japan (GE-Hitachi, Toshiba) Reactor Size MWe Design Progress ABWR 1380 Commercial operation in Japan since 1996-7. In US: NRC certified 1997, FOAKE. Main Features (improved safety in all) Evolutionary design. More efficient, less waste. Simplified construction (48 months) and operation. USA (Westinghouse) Europe (Areva NP) USA (GE- Hitachi) Japan ( u t i l i t i e s, Mitsubishi) South Korea (KHNP, derived f r o m Westinghouse) Europe (Areva NP) AP600 AP1000 (PWR) EPR US-EPR (PWR) 600 1200 1750 ESBWR 1600 APWR US-APWR EU-APWR APR-1400 (PWR) A t m e a 1 (PWR) 1530 1700 1700 1450 1150 AP600: NRC certified 1999, FOAKE. AP1000 NRC certification 2005, under construction in China, many more planned there. Four due to start construction in USA in 2012. Future French standard. French design approval. Being built in Finland, France &China. Undergoing certification in USA. Developed from ABWR, undergoing certification in USA, likely constructiion there. Basic design in progress, planned for Tsuruga US design certification application. Under construction - Shin Kori 3 &4. Sold to UAE. French design approval Feb 2012, ready for deployment. Simplified construction and operation. 3 years to build. 60-year plant life. Evolutionary design. High fuel efficiency. Flexible operation Evolutionary design. Short construction time. Hybrid safety features. Simplified Construction and operation. Evolutionary design. Increased reliability. Simplified construction and operation. Innovative design. High fuel efficiency. R u s s i a (Gidropress) VVER-1200 (PWR) 1200 Under construction at Leningrad, Novovoronezh and Baltic plants Evolutionary design. High fuel efficiency. 50-year plant life Canada Energy) (Candu E n h a n c e d CANDU-6 750 Improved model Licensing approval 1997 Evolutionary design. Flexible fuel requirements. China (INET, Chinergy) HTR-PM 2 x 1 0 5 (module) Demonstration plant being built at Shidaowan Modular plant, low cost. High temperature. High fuel efficiency. 출처 : WNA (2013a) - 6 -

2) EPR 17%, 10% (AREVA, 2013). - 7 -

neutron spectrum coolant temperatu re( C) Gas-cooled fast reactors fast helium 850 high Lead-cooled fast reactors Molten salt fast reactors Molten salt reactor - Advanced High-temperature reactors Sodium-cooled fast reactors Supercritical water-cooled reactors Very high temperature gas reactors 출처 : WNA (2013b) fast fast thermal lead or Pb-Bi fluoride salts fluoride salts 480-800 low pressure fuel fuel cycle size(mwe) uses U-238 with some U-235 or Pu-239 U-238 with some U-235 or Pu-239 closed, on site closed, regional 1200 700-800 low UF in salt closed 1000 750-100 0 fast sodium 550 low thermal or fast thermal UO2 particl es in prism U-238 &MOX water 510-625 very high UO2 helium 900-100 0 high UO2 prism or pebbles 20-180 300-1200 600-1000 electricity & hydrogen electricity & hydrogen electricity & hydrogen open 1000-1500 hydrogen closed open (thermal) closed (fast) 30-150 300-1500 1000-2000 300-700 1000-1500 open 250-300 electricity electricity hydrogen & electricity - 8 -

Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Loss of AC power + 51 min + 54 min + 52 min Loss of cooling + 1 hour + 70 hours + 36 hours Water level down to top of fuel* + 3 hours + 74 hours + 42 hours Core damage starts* + 4 hours + 77 hours + 44 hours Reactor pressure vessel damage* +11 hours uncertain uncertain Fire pumps with fresh water + 15 hours + 43 hours Hydrogen explosion (not confirmed for unit 2) + 25 hours service floor + 87 hours suppression + 68 hours service floor chamber Fire pumps with seawater + 28 hours + 77 hours + 46 hours Off-site electrical supply + 11-15 days Fresh water cooling + 14-15 days 주 : 표에서시간은지진발생후시간을의미함. 출처 : WNA (2013c) - 9 -

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- 11 -

- 12 -

< 표 Ⅱ-6> 후쿠시마원전사고이후주요국의원자력정책변화 - 13 -

- 14 -

- 15 -

3), - 16 -

- 17 -

< 표 Ⅱ-7> IAEA 의심층방어 (Defence in depth) 단계 - 18 -

4),. - 19 -

- 20 -

- 21 -

< 표 Ⅱ-8> 미국의후쿠시마사고대응 1 단계 - 22 -

- 23 -

- 24 -

< 표 Ⅱ-9> 미국에서 3 세대원자로 AP1000 의자본비용 5) http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2013/01/15/after-fukushima-u-s-seeks-to-advance-small-nuclear-reactors 6) http://www.nuclearenergyinsider.com/us-plant-safety-enhancements/index.php,, 2018 58 100 (133 ), 1 2.5, 1 2. 7) http://www.platts.com/rssfeeddetailednews/rssfeed/electricpower/21978672 8) http://www.reuters.nl/article/2013/02/07/utilities-exelon-idusl1n0b7cg320130207-25 -

< 표 Ⅱ-10> Mark 1 과 Mark 2 기술에대한안전장치추가비용 - 26 -

- 27 -

9), 20% 80%,. - 28 -

- 29 -

< 표 Ⅱ-11> 프랑스 EDF 의원자력안전강화조치내용 - 30 -

- 31 -

10) 1 2. 11) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/40d16bd4-362b-11e1-9f98-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2tlpodmcx - 32 -

12) 2016. 13) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/12/03/us-edf-nuclear-flamanville-idukbre8b214620121203-33 -

- 34 -

- 35 -

자본비 운전유지비 사회적비용 비용등 사고위험대응비용 정책경비 발전비용 발전량 - 36 -

< 표 Ⅱ-16> 후쿠시마사고이후추가된안전대책비용 추가적안전대책긴급안전대책비상용발전설비외부전원의신뢰성확보심각한사고에의대응기타 각사가독자적으로대처하고있는안전대책 합계 비용 억엔 손해비용 엔 지불기간 년 단가 연간발전량 - 37 -

14) http://www.niauk.org/operational-power-stations - 38 -

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- 40 -

- 41 -

- 42 -

15) http://namrc.co.uk/intelligence/uk-new-build-plans 16), PWR. 17) http://www.reuters.nl/article/2013/02/11/teollisuudenvoima-olkiluoto-idusl5n0bbez520130211-43 -

- 44 -

- 45 -

18) 72. - 46 -

19) http://yle.fi/uutiset/tvo_unperturbed_by_nuclear_reactors_spiralling_cost_estimates/6415992-47 -

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- 50 -

μ - 51 -

- 52 -

20),. IAEA(2012). - 53 -

21) - 54 -

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Country Final disposal site Facility type Period of operation Finland Olkiluoto NPP Rock cavern 1992 - Loviisa NPP Rock cavern 1998 - Sweden Forsmark yvl Rock cavern 1988 - Norway Himdalen Rock cavern 1998 - Germany Asse Salt mine 1967-1978 Morsleben Rock cavern 1981-1999 France Centre de la Manche Shallow land burial 1969-1994 Centre de l Aube Near-surface concrete vaults 1992 - Great Britain Drigg Maahanhautaus 1959 - Spain El Cabril Near-surface concrete vaults 1992 - The Czech Dukovany Republic Near-surface concrete vaults 1995 - Slovakia Mohovce Near-surface concrete vaults 2000 - Japan Rokkasho Near-surface concrete vaults 1992 - USA Beatty, Nevada Shallow land burial 1962-1992 Barnwell, South-Carolina Shallow land burial 1971 - Hanford, Washington Shallow land burial 1965 - Country Waste type Disposal site / rock type C o m mi s s i o n i n g target Finland snf. Olkiluoto/ 2020 granite formation Sweden snf. Forsmark/ granite formation 2023 Germany snf and hlw Open 2030 Great Britain hlw Open not before 2040 France hlw Open / clay or granite formation 2020 Japan hlw Open / granite or sediment formation 2030-2035 Canada snf. Open / granite formation 2025 USA snf and hlw Yucca Mountain / volcanic tuff formation not before 2017-57 -

22), 2050 15. - 58 -

23). 2005 (NRC) (http://www.nrc.gov/waste/llw-disposal/licensing/statistics.html), Manifest Information Management System(MIMS) (http://mims.apps.em.doe.gov/mims.asp). - 59 -

- 60 -

24) NWPA 1998 DOE NRC. NWF. (Holt, 2011). - 61 -

25) 3,. (NRC, 2007). - 62 -

- 63 -

26). - 64 -

27) - 65 -

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- 67 -

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28) CSM Digulleville, CSFMA Soulaine-Dhuys. - 77 -

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29) - 97 -

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30) 1999, 1 5.95FIM. 31) 6 FIM, 6 FIM - 100 -

32) (Posiva Oy, 2005). - 101 -

33) 1995-102 -

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34) http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=24606-105 -

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35) 1SEK 2013 5 0.15, 170. - 115 -

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국가 총원자로수 운영원자로수 처분용량 비용 년기준가격 프랑스 억유로 일본 억유로 영국 억유로 미국 억달러 벨기에 억유로 스웨덴 억유로 - 121 -

- 122 -

원자로유형 폐쇄비용 년기준미국달러 평균표준편차 - 123 -

국가 발전소 용량 비용 년기준미국달러 총비용 백만달러 단위비용 달러 즉시폐쇄시 벨기에 독일 이탈리아 슬로베니아 남아프리카공화국 스페인 스웨덴 스위스 미국 일정기간유예후폐쇄시 브라질 프랑스 독일 일본 네덜란드 슬로베니아 - 124 -

자료원원자로유형비고 전세계 개원자로대상 등 개유형 총폐쇄비용을모두포함하지는않음 미국 개 원자로대상 가정시 미국 개 원자로대상 가정시 단위비용 년기준백만파운드 평균 범위 다양함 개국다양한원자로 유럽형 미국 개원자로 자료원원자로유형비고 단위비용 년기준백만파운드 구분프랑스스웨덴벨기에일본미국영국독일 프랑스방법외삽 36) 3-125 -

국가단위비용 달러 단위비용 원화 비고참고문헌 미국 천달러 백만원 프랑스 천달러 백만원 영국 천달러 개 백만원 개 중준위장기폐기물비용포함 개당비용 핀란드 천달러 백만원 천 개 스웨덴 천달러 백만원 감사원 년보고서방사성폐기물관리청 년보고서원자력폐쇄국 년보고서고준위폐기물사업자 년보고서방사성폐기물관리사업자 년보고서 국가폐기물성상단위비용 달러 단위비용 원화 비고 참고문헌 미국저준위 천달러 백만원 저준위폐기물처분장운영회사 프랑스 영국 중저준위단기 천달러 백만원 방사성폐기물관리청 저준위 천달러 백만원 초저준위 천달러 백만원 년보고서 중준위 천달러 백만원 저준위 초저준위 천달러 백만원 원자력폐쇄국 년보고서 원자력폐쇄국 년보고서 핀란드중저준위 천달러 백만원 년보고서 스웨덴중준위장기 천달러 백만원 방사성폐기물관리사업자 년보고서중준위단기 천달러 백만원 - 126 -

국가 원자로유형 단위비용 달러 단위비용 원화 참고문헌 미국 천달러 억원 년의회연구보고서 프랑스 천달러 억원 회계감사원 년보고서 영국 천달러 억원 에너지기후변화부 년보고서 핀란드 천달러 억원 발주독일 연구소의 년보고서 스웨덴 천달러 억원 발주독일 연구소의 년보고서 - 127 -

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구분 단위 신형원전 1, 2 (1400MW 2) 신형원전 N-th (1400MW 2) 건설단가천원 /kw 1,540 1,319 1,176 순건설단가천원 /kw 1,145 1,001 884 발전원가원 /kwh 33.70 30.81 34.60 - 고정비 20.13 17.24 34.60 - 운전유지비 9.02 9.02 5.95 - 연료비 4.55 4.55 12.40 석탄 800MWe 급 (800MW 2) - 135 -

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