Earnings preview, Target price lowered Korea / Telecommunication&Utilities 7 July 2016 OVERWEIGHT Stocks under coverage Company Rating Price Target price Target price change Previous New, Analyst 3774 1785 hmlee@miraeasset.com See the last page of this report for important disclosures
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 1 통신사가입자추이 ( 명, 000) 60,000 LG U+ KT SKT 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 자료 : MSIP. 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 2 사물인터넷가입자추이 ( 명,000) LG U+ KT SKT 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 자료 : MSIP, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 3 각사신규, 기변, 번호이동추이 ( 명, 000) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 SKT 기기변경 SKT 번호이동 SKT 번호이동 ( 명, 000) 700 600 500 400 300 200 KT 기기변경 KT 번호이동 KT 신규가입 ( 명, 000) LGU 기기변경 LGU 번호이동 LGU 신규가입 600 500 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 자료 : MSIP, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 2
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 4 SMP 추이 (KRW/kWh) 180 2013 2014 2015 2016 160 140 120 100 80 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 자료 : EPSIS, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 5 유가, 환율변동추이 (USD/barrel) 160 Dubai oil price (lhs) KRW/USD (rhs) (KRW) 1,600 120 1,400 80 1,200 40 1,000 0 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 800 3
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 6 4,256 4,261 4,379 4,228 4,337 1.9 2.6 4,335 0.0 4,320 0.4 413 491 402 402 417 1.0 3.7 456 (8.5) 437 (4.5) 516 555 405 736 467 (9.4) (36.5) 506 (7.7) 429 9.0 398 382 293 572 355 (10.8) (38.0) 385 (7.7) 333 6.5 9.7 11.5 9.2 9.5 9.6 (0.1) 0.1 10.5 (0.9) 10.1 (0.5) 12.1 13.0 9.2 17.4 10.8 (1.3) (6.6) 11.7 (0.9) 9.9 0.8 9.3 9.0 6.7 13.5 7.6 (1.8) (6.0) 8.9 (1.3) 7.7 (0.1) Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 7 17,270 17,450 17,278 17,451 (0.0) (0.0) 17,348 17,784 (0.5) (1.9) 1,688 1,750 1,829 1,922 (7.7) (8.9) 1729 1786 (2.4) (2.0) 2,172 1,910 2,313 2,082 (6.1) (8.3) 2050 1958 5.9 (2.5) 1,663 1,452 1,771 1,583 (6.1) (8.3) 1535 1448 8.4 0.3 9.8 10.0 10.6 11.0 (0.8) (1.0) 10.0 10.0 (0.2) (0.0) 12.6 10.9 13.4 11.9 (0.8) (1.0) 11.8 11.0 0.8 (0.1) 9.6 8.3 10.2 9.1 (0.6) (0.7) 8.8 8.1 0.8 0.2 4
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 8 5,431 5,492 5,959 5,515 5,555 2.3 0.7 5,523 0.6 5,555 0.0 362 343 267 385 386 6.8 0.4 345 11.9 371 4.1 191 206 (91) 318 286 50.2 (9.9) 246 16.5 280 2.1 322 126 (97) 215 218 (32.3) 1.2 187 16.5 204 6.8 6.7 6.3 4.5 7.0 7.0 0.3 (0.0) 6.3 0.7 6.7 0.3 3.5 3.7 (1.5) 5.8 5.2 1.6 (0.6) 4.5 0.7 5.0 0.1 5.9 2.3 (1.6) 3.9 3.9 (2.0) 0.0 3.4 0.5 3.7 0.3 Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 9 22,412 22,941 22,285 22,791 0.6 0.7 22,423 22,726 (0.1) 0.9 1,551 1,726 1,438 1,464 7.9 17.9 1,352 1,376 14.8 25.4 1,185 1,327 1,073 1,064 10.4 24.7 993 1,039 19.3 27.7 874 1,008 789 809 10.8 24.7 671 727 30.3 38.7 6.9 7.5 6.5 6.4 0.5 1.1 6.0 6.1 0.9 1.5 5.3 5.8 4.8 4.7 0.5 1.1 4.4 4.6 0.9 1.2 3.9 4.4 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.8 3.0 3.2 0.9 1.2 5
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 10 2,661 2,717 2,861 2,713 2,729 2.5 0.6 2,788 (2.1) 2,756 (1.0) 192 172 113 171 166 (13.8) (2.8) 151 9.6 177 (6.1) 149 147 59 144 122 (18.3) (15.4) 101 20.3 138 (12.0) 116 114 40 110 91 (21.1) (16.9) 76 20.4 107 (14.7) 7.2 6.3 4.0 6.3 6.1 (1.1) (0.2) 5.4 0.6 6.4 (0.3) 5.6 5.4 2.1 5.3 4.5 (1.1) (0.8) 3.6 0.8 5.0 (0.6) 4.4 4.2 1.4 4.1 3.4 (1.0) (0.7) 2.7 0.6 3.9 (0.5) Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 11 11,002 11,422 10,745 10,852 2.4 5.2 11,056 11,326 (0.5) 0.8 703 728 688 694 2.2 4.8 697 734 0.9 (0.9) 535 561 501 519 6.8 8.0 556 601 (3.8) (6.7) 404 420 378 389 6.8 8.1 424 457 (4.8) (8.0) 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 (0.0) (0.0) 6.3 6.5 0.1 (0.1) 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.8 0.2 0.1 5.0 0.1 (0.2) 4.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 0.2 0.1 3.8 4.0 (0.2) (0.4) 6
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 12 13,672 15,470 14,692 15,685 13,758 0.6 (12.3) 13,795 (0.3) 13,759 (0.0) 2,088 4,340 2,679 3,605 2,370 13.5 (34.3) 1,744 35.9 2,619 (9.5) 1,733 12,474 2,387 3,508 1,862 7.4 (46.9) 1,236 50.7 2,346 (20.6) 1,342 9,276 1,573 2,163 1,210 (9.8) (44.0) 803 50.7 1,720 (29.6) 15.3 28.1 18.2 23.0 17.2 2.0 (5.8) 12.6 4.6 22.2 (4.9) 12.7 80.6 16.2 22.4 13.5 0.9 (8.8) 9.0 4.6 20.3 (6.7) 9.8 60.0 10.7 13.8 8.8 (1.0) (5.0) 5.8 3.0 14.5 (5.7) Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 13 59,798 60,956 60,008 61,167 (0.3) (0.3) 59,384 60,095 0.7 1.4 13,160 12,738 12,103 11,784 8.7 8.1 13,048 12,983 0.9 (1.9) 11,587 10,789 10,529 9,834 10.0 9.7 11,873 11,775 (2.4) (8.4) 7,414 7,337 6,726 6,687 10.2 9.7 8,204 8,261 (9.6) (11.2) 22.0 20.9 20.2 19.3 1.8 (1.6) 22.0 21.6 0.0 (0.7) 19.4 17.7 17.5 16.1 1.8 (1.6) 20.0 19.6 (0.6) (1.9) 12.4 12.0 11.2 10.9 1.2 (1.1) 13.8 13.7 (1.4) (1.7) 7
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 14 4,968 4,389 6,483 7,765 4,252 (14.4) (45.2) 4,565 (6.9) 4,231 0.5 4 (145) 283 894 (3) 적전 적전 38 적전 12 (124.4) (156) (277) (40) 671 (130) 적지 적전 (89.0) 적지 (147.6) (11.8) (40) (240) 18 511 (98) 적지 적전 (66.7) 적지 (128.4) (23.9) 0.1 (3.3) 4.4 11.5 (0.1) (0.1) (11.6) 0.8 (0.9) 10.4 (10.5) (3.1) (6.3) (0.6) 8.6 (3.1) 0.1 (11.7) (1.9) (1.1) 8.7 (11.7) (0.8) (5.5) 0.3 6.6 (2.3) (1.5) (8.9) (1.5) (0.8) 6.9 (9.2) Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 15 21,668 22,594 22,200 23,157 (2.4) (2.4) 22,632 22,822 (4.3) (1.0) 1,025 1,034 1,064 1,057 (3.6) (2.2) 1,081 1,145 (5.1) (9.7) 421 540 459 563 (8.4) (4.2) 460 564 (8.5) (4.4) 323 405 352 423 (8.2) (4.2) 345 417 (6.4) (2.9) 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.6 (0.1) 0.0 4.9 5.2 (0.2) (0.6) 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.4 (0.1) (0.0) 2.2 2.4 (0.2) (0.1) 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 (0.1) (0.0) 1.7 1.9 (0.2) (0.1) 8
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Figure 16 302 277 360 260 309 2.2 19.0 368 (15.9) 318 (2.8) 56 45 37 37 42 (24.5) 13.3 67 (36.4) 51 (17.0) 58 85 40 39 44 (23.7) 12.9 68 (35.4) 53 (17.2) 44 66 31 30 34 (23.8) 12.5 52 (35.4) 42 (18.9) 18.5 16.3 10.4 14.4 13.7 (4.8) (0.7) 18.1 (4.4) 16.0 (2.3) 19.1 30.7 11.1 15.1 14.3 (4.9) (0.8) 18.6 (4.3) 16.8 (2.5) 14.6 23.7 8.6 11.5 10.9 (3.7) (0.6) 14.2 (3.3) 13.1 (2.2) Note : * 미래에셋증권리서치센터 Figure 17 1,215 1,247 1,240 1,286 (2.0) (4.6) 1,267 1,395 (4.1) (10.6) 171 205 195 252 (12.7) (20.3) 194 230 (12.0) (11.0) 178 177 202 260 (12.2) (32.0) 204 240 (12.9) (26.2) 136 136 155 199 (12.1) (31.9) 159 187 (14.1) (27.0) 14.0 16.4 15.8 19.6 (1.7) (3.2) 15.3 16.5 (1.3) (0.1) 14.6 14.2 16.3 20.2 (1.7) (5.8) 16.1 17.2 (1.5) (3.0) 11.2 10.9 12.5 15.5 (1.3) (4.4) 12.5 13.4 (1.3) (2.4) 9
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Recommendations Compliance Notice Distribution of Ratings Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 430,000 380,000 330,000 280,000 230,000 180,000 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-08-04 BUY 330,000 2014-09-01 BUY 380,000 (Up) 2014-12-19 BUY 380,000 2015-01-20 BUY 360,000 (Down) 2015-01-30 BUY 360,000 2015-03-23 BUY 360,000 2015-06-26 BUY 360,000 2015-07-31 BUY 360,000 2015-11-02 BUY 360,000 2015-11-03 BUY 360,000 2016-02-03 BUY 360,000 2016-04-06 BUY 335,000 (Down) 2016-04-29 BUY 335,000 2016-07-07 BUY 301,000 (Down) Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-10-08 BUY 51,000 2015-01-20 BUY 46,000 (Down) 2015-02-02 BUY 46,000 2015-05-04 BUY 46,000 2015-08-03 BUY 46,000 2015-11-02 BUY 46,000 2016-02-01 BUY 46,000 2016-05-02 BUY 46,000 2016-07-07 BUY 46,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 10
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 15,400 14,400 13,400 12,400 11,400 10,400 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-10-22 BUY 14,000 2015-01-20 BUY 15,000 (Up) 2015-01-26 BUY 15,000 2015-04-29 BUY 15,000 2015-06-30 BUY 15,000 2015-07-31 BUY 15,000 2015-10-29 BUY 15,000 2016-02-02 BUY 15,000 2016-04-28 BUY 15,000 2016-07-07 BUY 15,000 9,400 8,400 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-08-08 BUY 49,000 2014-11-12 BUY 59,000 (Up) 2014-12-16 BUY 59,000 2015-02-04 BUY 59,000 2015-02-12 BUY 59,000 2015-03-20 BUY 59,000 2015-05-12 BUY 59,000 2015-07-13 BUY 59,000 2015-08-06 BUY 72,000 (Up) 2015-09-18 BUY 72,000 2015-11-06 BUY 72,000 2016-02-05 BUY 72,000 2016-03-29 BUY 72,000 2016-05-12 BUY 72,000 2016-07-07 BUY 72,000 Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-08-13 BUY 90,000 2014-10-23 BUY 90,000 2014-11-24 BUY 90,000 2015-02-04 BUY 70,000 (Down) 2015-02-12 BUY 70,000 2015-04-14 BUY 70,000 2015-04-16 BUY 70,000 2015-05-04 BUY 76,000 (Up) 2015-05-12 BUY 76,000 2015-08-13 BUY 76,000 2015-11-11 BUY 62,000 (Down) 2016-01-27 BUY 54,000 (Down) 2016-02-15 BUY 54,000 2016-04-06 BUY 54,000 2016-05-13 BUY 54,000 2016-07-07 BUY 54,000 11
, Analyst, 3774 1785, hmlee@miraeasset.com Target Price and Recommendation Chart (KRW) Stock Price Target Price 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Date Recommendation 12m target price 2014-08-21 BUY 87,000 2014-12-09 BUY 99,000 (Up) 2015-02-05 BUY 99,000 2015-02-12 BUY 99,000 2015-04-10 BUY 115,000 (Up) 2015-07-09 HOLD (Change) 115,000 2015-11-25 BUY (Change) 125,000 (Up) 2016-02-24 BUY 105,000 (Down) 2016-04-06 BUY 96,000 (Down) 2016-07-07 BUY 80,000 (Down) 12