연구책임자 : 책임연구원안지운 연구참여자 : 전남대교수배정환

FTA 3 2. 1, 2. (ligneous) (cellulose),,,.. 63% 30%. MDF PB(Particle Board),,..,, 97%. 요약 i

.,,..,..,,,.,.. / ii

.. /... 2005. 2005,, 2005. 2006, 3 2005 2008.. (Computable General Equilibrium: CGE Model). 1%. CGE, 요약 iii

.. (time span).., 2013 650 m 3. 1.,,. CGE. CGE,,. iv

...,..,..,,.,,, 요약 v

,. 2 4,, 4.14%, 10%, 5.87%, 14%..,. 0.26%, 1 6. 13.13 TCO 2, 17, 8.,, 1 5.97%, 6.05%. 1 1 5.78%.., vi

., 0.44%, 1 8 1. 14.06 TCO 2 1. 27, 13, 1 1.6. 2008 8 15.,,.,.,,. 요약 vii

..,.,.,. viii

Korea has been preparing oil depletion. Therefore it is required to investigate how the growth of biofuel industry would affect agricultural market. This research corresponds to second year working of 'The action strategies for FTA by developing bioenergy industry'. In the first year, the research analysed the biodiesel, and we analyses wooden biomass usage. The goals of this research are the choice of desirable policy measure and analsys on the economic and environmental effect when biomass deployment expand by the policy measure. This research uses CGE model and the data of the year, 2005. Accordiong to the result, the support policy for the price of wooden biomass is superior to the direct expansion policy of public expenditure. In other words, price support policy is more cost-effective and less disadvantageous in GDP and social walfare than public expenditure policy. Of course, direct expenditure policy might contribute to the increase of biomass production. However, when considering other industries in the viewpoint of general equilibrium, the deploying biofuel by price support policy and reducing the subsidy for carbon-intensive fuel as coal re more desirable policy measure. Abstract i

1 1 1. 1 2. 2 2 6 1. 6 2. 12. 12. 16. 17 3. 20. 20. 22. 28. 31. / 34 4. 36. 36. 38. 39. 40 차례 i

3 CGE 41 1. CGE 41. 41. CGE 42 2. 52. 52. (Calibration) 58. 60 3. 64 4. 69. 1 69. 2 75 4 80 1. 80 2. 82 84 ii

< 2-1> 100 2009 10 < 2-2> (solid biomass) 15 < 2-3> 19 < 2-4> (2005) 21 < 2-5> (2005) 22 < 2-6> (2005) 24 < 2-7> (2005) 25 < 2-8> 3 4 26 < 2-9> (2005) 27 < 2-10> (2004) 29 < 2-11> 30 < 2-12> 32 < 2-13> 33 < 2-14> 35 < 2-15> 39 < 2-16> 40 < 2-17> 40 < 3-1> 55 < 3-2>, 56 < 3-3>,, 58 < 3-4> 59 차례 iii

< 3-5> 66 < 3-6> 66 < 3-7> 67 < 3-8> 68 < 3-9> 1: 70 < 3-10> 71 < 3-11> 73 < 3-12> 1 74 < 3-13> 76 < 3-14> 77 < 3-15> 78 < 3-16> 2 79 iv

[ 2-1] 7 [ 2-2] 7 [ 2-3] (2007 ) 11 [ 2-4] 11 [ 2-5] P 12 [ 2-6] 14 [ 3-1] 43 [ 3-2] 45 [ 3-3] 46 [ 3-4] 48 [ 3-5] 62 [ 3-6] 65 차례 v

FTA 3 2. 1, 2. (ligneous) (cellulose),,,.. 63% 30%. MDF PB(Particle Board),,..,, 97% 제 1 장서론 1

..,,..,...,,, 2

.,.. /.. /... 2005. 2005,, 2005. 2006, 3 2005 2008.. (Computable General Equilibrium: CGE 제 1 장서론 3

Model). 1%. CGE,.. (time span).., 2013 650 m 3. 1.,,. CGE. CGE 4

.,. 2,,, /, 3. CGE (benchmark solution). 4 CGE,. 제 1 장서론 5

,,. CGE. 30~40. 36%. 10%, 85%, 3%. < 2-1>< 2-2>.., 6

EU,,.,.. [ 그림 2-1] 석탄화력발전과우드칩혼소발전의환경성비교 [ 그림 2-2] 바이오매스보일러와기존보일러간환경성비교 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 7

2007 560 TOE 2.4%, 6.6% 37 TOE.,, 84,420 TOE 1.5%. 22 TOE 56 TOE 11%. 2007 5,742 TOE 1% < 2-3>. 2006 1.5MW, 53.5m 3 /h,, < 2-4>. 2008. 2009 2,,. 2008 38 2009 113. 2008 7, 2009 3 3 < 2-5>.. 8

50MW 30% SMP+5., 100 50% < 2-1>.,,, RPA( ), ( 2008). 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 9

< 표 2-1> 지식경제부의그린홈 100 만호보급사업 2009 년지원계획 ( ) BIPV 3kW / 60% 12~30 / 50% 23.3kW / (20,000 /h ) 50% - 3kW / : 60% 50% 2012 50%, 20% 35%. 1 1 3.7m 3, 2.6m 8m. 15 2012 36 ha 10

.. [ 그림 2-3] 바이오에너지유형별생산비중 (2007 년 ) [ 그림 2-4] 서대구우드칩열병합발전소 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 11

[ 그림 2-5] 국내 P 회사에의해제작된국산 우드펠렛보일러. 2007 2006 1% 66.4 TOE(Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) < 2-7>..,,, 58%. 2007 7.1 TOE. 12

. 0.69 c/kwh. CO 2 20,. 8.4 TOE 3.,,.. 2002 70.3TWh 17TWh. 2007 22.34 2008 34.76. (SVEBIO) 5 44 500GWh 1,250GWh. 2007 9.23M TOE 1.. 2007 65% 2008 70%. 2010 700MW. 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 13

9.112 TOE 2.,. 2009 1. 2012 500 < 2-6>. [ 그림 2-6] 독일베를린의폐목재우드칩에의한발전소현장 14

< 표 2-2> 유럽국가들의목질계바이오매스 (solid biomass) 생산량 countries 2006 2007 9.495 9.234 8.528 9.112 8.332 8.441 7.481 7.141 4.588 4.550 4.206 4.206 3.622 3.548 3.235 3.279 2.731 2.790 1.919 2.030 1.716 1.782 1.592 1.538 1.289 1.441 1.058 1.079 0.931 1.052 0.769 0.800 0.791 0.784 0.759 0.732 0.598 0.695 0.447 0.527 0.556 0.520 0.404 0.454 0.449 0.429 0.181 0.171 0.015 0.015 0.007 0.007 EU 65.698 66.358 : Solid Biomass Barometer 2008' 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 15

. 2007 53%, 36%, 5%, 1%. 2006 2007 1.3%. 2006 174.4 TOE, 2007 172 TOE. 2007 14% 7%, 21%. 2007. 2007 54.56MTOE 31.7%. 38,515GWh 11%. (RPS) R&D. 1997 (RPS: Renewable Portfolio Standard) 2004 15.,, RPS 18. RPS. RPS. 2007 12 2020 16

15%., (Sissine, F., 2007).. 2005 2.9% 15.48 TOE 10.5% (,, ). 92.83TWh 1,049.1TWh 8.8%, 8.0TWh 7.6%. 2010 02 1.3% 10 3% ( ). 2002 218MW, 2003 4 RPS, 2003 790 TOE. 2002 Biomass Nippon,,,. Biomass Nippon.,. 2010. 2020 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 17

. 2050. 10 80%, 25%,..,,,,,,.,,,. 18

< 표 2-3> 일본의재생에너지보급현황및전망 2004 ( TOE) (MW) BAU ( TOE) 2010 ( ) (MW) ( TOE) (MW) 2010 : 2004 ( ) 280 1,130 620 2,540 1,180 4,820 4.2 : 1 377 927 320 780 1,340 3,000 4.0 : 1 1,349* 1,554* 2,080 1,750 5,520 4,170 4.1 : 1 226** 218** 130 160 340 330 6 : 1 640-720 - 900-1.4 : 1 ( ) 36** - 93-504) - 1.4 : 1 1,640** - 44-1,860-1.1 : 1 790* - - - 3,080-3.9 : 1 4,710** - 4,790-4,940-1.1 : 1 ( 1 ) 7,630** (1.3%) - 8,780** (1.4%) - 19,740 ( 3%) - 2.5 : 1 :, 2003,, NEDO (2005) 1) * 2003, ** 2002 2) BAU business as usual. 3) 2010 2010 4,390 TOE 900 TOE 580 TOE 50 TOE 140 TOE 1,860 TOE 670 TOE 3,080 TOE 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 19

.,,,, 2005...,,,. (virgin wood). 2005 6,448ha, 256,874m 3.. (1.26) (1.35) < 2-1>. 436,943m 3. < 2-1>. 193,820m 3,,,. 20

< 표 2-4> 지역별개발부산물잠재량 (2005) (ha) (m 3 ) (m 3 ) 6,448 256,874 436,943 2,173 113,945 193,820 472 23,546 40,052 534 21,853 37,172 400 19,984 33,993 711 19,491 33,154 446 15,756 26,801 354 9,869 16,787 153 9,548 16,241 17 7,229 12,297 315 7,025 11,950 48 2,774 4,719 82 2,336 3,974 36 1,439 2,448 77 1,259 2,142 628 820 1,395 2 - - :, 2006,,,,,,, 2005 1,931ha, 206,203m 3..,,,. 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 21

< 표 2-5> 지역별피해목잠재량 (2005) (ha) (m 3 ) 1,931 206,203 1 59,756 684 52,090 82 35,030 491 33,891 253 6,401 93 5,595 77 3,316 82 3,263 29 2,825 79 2,157 21 1,304 7 182 1 177 26 167 5 49 0 0 :, 2006,., ha < 2-3>. 3 4 22

< 2-4>, < 2-5>. ( ), < 2-6>. 23.5%. 3 4. 3 80%, 4 20%. < 2-6> 1,270,221m 3, (362,097m 3 ), (248,038m 3 ), (166,344m 3 ), (159,180m 3 ), (115,912m 3 ). 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 23

< 표 2-6> 영급별산림면적 (2005) ( : ha) 1 2 3 4 5 6 6,232,288 383,431 957,086 2,434,604 1,802,319 508,052 146,796 13,705 19 186 3,940 8,011 1,182 367 35,234 775 1,148 8,399 23,990 837 85 48,870 2,190 13,884 20,100 11,298 1,093 305 38,006 93 2,833 21,006 13,159 888 27 19,431 447 1,558 4,943 11,605 790 88 29,983 733 4,120 18,285 6,655 173 17 67,482 2,077 4,533 38,574 21,130 570 598 516,538 12,675 60,080 203,784 190,845 41,142 8,012 1,348,859 122,755 232,605 367,420 340,468 217,646 67,965 482,426 26,754 67,233 191,473 148,712 42,256 5,998 427,690 24,802 49,885 189,686 134,679 27,188 1,450 437,640 27,057 40,331 167,183 165,592 24,373 13,104 673,818 80,010 102,650 267,098 198,028 16,595 9,437 1,332,157 60,795 283,191 588,451 305,553 84,471 9,696 695,694 19,002 87,524 330,153 207,228 36,116 15,671 64,755 3,247 5,325 14,109 15,366 12,732 13,976 :, 2006, 24

< 표 2-7> 영급별임목축적 (2005) ( : m 3 ) 2 3 4 5 6 3 4 506,376,806 44,252,271 162,240,798 199,153,719 72,037,314 28,692,704 206,493,069 299,883,737 1,111,139 5,638 181,646 722,953 143,178 57,724 187,284 923,855 3,039,936 42,334 495,561 2,378,307 109,078 14,656 537,895 2,502,041 3,679,990 670,167 1,408,307 1,382,648 153,847 65,021 2,078,474 1,601,516 2,570,271 66,388 982,661 1,402,051 115,232 3,939 1,049,049 1,521,222 2,023,007 92,166 365,037 1,452,766 96,850 16,188 457,203 1,565,804 1,973,887 178,883 1,043,357 729,455 19,998 2,194 1,222,240 751,647 4,642,711 191,323 2,295,762 1,986,564 64,182 104,880 2,487,085 2,155,626 41,750,853 2,273,618 11,481,653 20,657,932 5,661,265 1,676,385 13,755,271 27,995,582 132,697,565 14,533,937 30,607,146 41,367,924 33,434,683 12,753,875 45,141,083 87,556,482 36,572,865 2,879,434 12,358,502 14,997,895 5,361,604 975,430 15,237,936 21,334,929 29,859,698 1,730,842 11,200,404 13,617,241 3,068,584 242,627 12,931,246 16,928,452 37,234,517 1,517,738 11,786,184 18,395,792 3,082,311 2,452,492 13,303,922 23,930,595 45,732,850 4,091,245 16,785,710 21,796,532 1,865,845 1,193,518 20,876,955 24,855,895 104,056,685 12,730,954 40,640,769 35,906,862 12,704,855 2,073,245 53,371,723 50,684,962 50,919,330 3,100,150 19,704,100 20,630,986 4,458,672 3,025,422 22,804,250 28,115,080 8,511,502 147,454 903,999 1,727,811 1,697,130 4,035,108 1,051,453 7,460,049 : (2006) 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 25

< 표 2-8> 지역별단위당임목축적및 3 영급이하및 4 영급이상비중 (2005) (ha) (m 3 ) (m 3 /ha) 3 (m 3 ) 3 / (a) 4 (m 3 ) 4 / (b) 6,232,288 506,376,806 81 206,493,069 0.4078 299,883,737 0.5922 13,705 1,111,139 81 187,284 0.1686 923,855 0.8314 35,234 3,039,936 86 537,895 0.1769 2,502,041 0.8231 48,870 3,679,990 75 2,078,474 0.5648 1,601,516 0.4352 38,006 2,570,271 68 1,049,049 0.4081 1,521,222 0.5919 19,431 2,023,007 104 457,203 0.2260 1,565,804 0.7740 29,983 1,973,887 66 1,222,240 0.6192 751,647 0.3808 67,482 4,642,711 69 2,487,085 0.5357 2,155,626 0.4643 516,538 41,750,853 81 13,755,271 0.3295 27,995,582 0.6705 1,348,859 132,697,565 98 45,141,083 0.3402 87,556,482 0.6598 482,426 36,572,865 76 15,237,936 0.4166 21,334,929 0.5834 427,690 29,859,698 70 12,931,246 0.4331 16,928,452 0.5669 437,640 37,234,517 85 13,303,922 0.3573 23,930,595 0.6427 673,818 45,732,850 68 20,876,955 0.4565 24,855,895 0.5435 1,332,157 104,056,685 78 53,371,723 0.5129 50,684,962 0.4871 695,694 50,919,330 73 22,804,250 0.4479 28,115,080 0.5521 64,755 8,511,502 131 1,051,453 0.1235 7,460,049 0.8765 :, 2006, 26

< 표 2-9> 숲가꾸기사업부산물발생량추정 (2005) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) 3 (G) 4 (H) (I) (ha) (ha) C= A+B (ha) (m 3 /ha) E=C*D (m 3 ) F=E*0.235 (m 3 ) G=F* (a) (m 3 ) H=F* (b) (m 3 ) I=G*0.8 +H*0.2 (m 3 ) 53,038 96,520 149,558 81 12,151,669 2,774,932 1,192,057 1,582,875 1,270,221 5,467 33,374 38,841 78 3,033,926 713,146 365,780 347,366 362,097 8,390 18,153 26,543 98 2,611,238 613,790 208,799 404,991 248,038 12,027 9,975 22,002 68 1,493,303 351,012 160,236 190,775 166,344 7,997 11,743 19,740 73 1,444,813 339,614 152,096 187,518 159,180 7,050 8,310 15,360 70 1,072,377 252,070 109,163 142,907 115,912 3,601 4,073 7,674 85 652,906 153,470 54,835 98,635 63,595 4,308 2,486 6,794 81 549,147 129,081 42,527 86,554 51,332 1,193 4,767 5,960 76 451,829 106,206 44,250 61,956 47,791 1,327 794 2,121 66 139,633 32,822 20,323 12,498 18,758 637 1,524 2,161 69 148,675 34,947 18,721 16,226 18,222 32 948 980 75 73,796 17,346 9,797 7,549 9,348 370 48 418 131 54,943 12,915 1,595 11,319 3,540 423 94 517 86 44,606 10,485 1,855 8,630 3,210 150 96 246 81 19,945 4,688 790 3,898 1,412 66 118 184 68 12,444 2,925 1,194 1,731 1,301 0 17 17 104 1,770 416 94 322 140 1), 2006, 2), 2006, : 23.3%, 23.7% 23.5% 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 27

..,, 1,543,220m 3 < 2-7>. 0% BDT 4,500kcal/kg.,, 2,700 kcal/kg. 0.6 (=2,700/4,500).. 30%, 50%, 80%. 771,610m 3, 1,286,017m 3, 2,057,627m 3,, < 2-8>. 28

< 표 2-10> 발생원별지역별폐목재발생량 (2004) ( : BDT/ ) 764,274 95,302 859,575 145,635 538,010 1,543,220 154,797 24,601 179,398 20,915 262,983 463,295 160,527 17,082 177,609 73 144,832 322,514 77,125 10,001 87,126 1,022 3,285 91,433 28,434 3,285 31,719 19,090 29,310 80,118 56,174 4,417 60,590 10,695 6,205 77,490 31,938 13,797 45,735 2,190 22,703 70,628 17,995 2,701 20,696 46,355 3,541 70,591 54,896 3,030 57,926 1,132 4,709 63,766 37,522 2,008 39,530 8,067 8,651 56,247 23,689 1,533 25,222 621 27,229 53,071 37,960-37,960 10,731 1,022 49,713 29,967 4,307 34,274 2,008 12,556 48,837 20,185 1,460 21,645 20,440 329 42,413 19,418 5,694 25,112 183 10,476 35,770 8,213 1,314 9,527 - - 9,527 5,439 73 5,512 2,117 183 7,811 :, 2004, 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 29

< 표 2-11> 시나리오별폐목재연료이용가능량 30% 50% 80% 30% 50% 80% (BDT/ ) (m 3 / ) 1,543,220 462,966 771,610 1,234,576 771,610 1,286,017 2,057,627 463,295 138,988 231,647 370,636 231,647 386,079 617,726 322,514 96,754 161,257 258,011 161,257 268,762 430,019 91,433 27,430 45,716 73,146 45,716 76,194 121,910 80,118 24,035 40,059 64,094 40,059 66,765 106,823 77,490 23,247 38,745 61,992 38,745 64,575 103,319 70,628 21,188 35,314 56,502 35,314 58,856 94,170 70,591 21,177 35,296 56,473 35,296 58,826 94,121 63,766 19,130 31,883 51,012 31,883 53,138 85,021 56,247 16,874 28,123 44,997 28,123 46,872 74,995 53,071 15,921 26,536 42,457 26,536 44,226 70,761 49,713 14,914 24,857 39,770 24,857 41,428 66,284 48,837 14,651 24,419 39,070 24,419 40,698 65,116 42,413 12,724 21,207 33,930 21,207 35,344 56,551 35,770 10,731 17,885 28,616 17,885 29,808 47,693 9,527 2,858 4,763 7,621 4,763 7,939 12,702 7,811 2,343 3,906 6,249 3,906 6,509 10,415 : = 4,500kcal/kg, = 2,700kcal/kg 30

.,, (3 )..., 2,622,490m 3. < 5-10>. < 2-9>, 3 < 2-10>., 3 d 4 5. 3 (0.478), (1.28)., 1/10 10 m 3. 628,163m 3,,,. 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 31

< 표 2-12> 리기다소나무의영급별지역별분포면적 ( : ha) 1~6 3 4 5 6 3~6 462,261 310,282 98,443 2,264 46 411,035 900 812 76 888 2,019 1,158 94 1,252 1,337 715 715 3,790 3,516 214 38 3,768 1,924 678 1,153 1,831 8,405 5,923 2,446 8,369 9,417 4,479 208 4,687 73,478 57,074 13,229 482 1 70,786 2,803 621 37 30 688 42,140 33,237 5,282 96 38,615 100,912 66,130 29,142 27 95,299 71,939 44,220 19,863 860 64,943 73,141 43,945 21,288 644 37 65,914 36,768 23,377 2,497 31 25,905 32,963 24,178 2,849 40 8 27,075 325 219 65 16 300 32

< 표 2-13> 에너지우드순환림잠재량추정 (ha) 3 (m 3 ) 3 (m 3 ) 1/10 (m 3 ) 411,444 0.9059 28,950,194 26,224,903 2,622,490 93,992 0.9444 6,651,610 6,281,629 628,163 69,492 0.9012 5,464,364 4,924,435 492,443 64,081 0.9634 4,628,943 4,459,353 445,935 61,923 0.9028 4,757,588 4,294,917 429,492 46,371 0.9164 2,867,204 2,627,363 262,736 25,086 0.8214 1,604,962 1,318,276 131,828 22,320 0.7046 1,154,293 813,260 81,326 9,763 0.9957 696,966 693,981 69,398 2,722 0.9517 289,315 275,330 27,533 3,588 0.9942 246,900 245,467 24,547 6,441 0.4977 309,719 154,152 15,415 974 0.9867 60,935 60,123 6,012 3,150 0.2455 160,004 39,273 3,927 873 0.6201 29,489 18,286 1,829 158 0.9231 10,647 9,828 983 510 0.5348 17,255 9,228 923 1), 2002, 2), 2006, 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 33

. / 660 m 3.,,,.. 1m 3 = 1m 3 * 0.45( ) * 1,000 =450kg 1m 3 = 450kg * 4,500kcal/kg = 0.2025TOE 660 m 3 1 1,335,180TOE < 2-11>. 34

< 표 2-14> 바이오매스공급잠재량 ( : m 3 ) (80%) 436,943 206,203 1,270,221 2,057,627 2,622,490 6,593,483 193,820 5,595 51,332 617,726 445,935 1,314,409 37,172 3,316 115,912 106,823 628,163 891,386 26,801 2,157 166,344 70,761 492,443 758,507 33,993 33,891 63,595 94,121 429,492 655,092 16,787 6,401 362,097 85,021 81,326 551,632 11,950 35,030 159,180 103,319 131,828 441,307 0 0 1,412 430,019 6,012 437,443 40,052 3,263 47,791 74,995 262,736 428,838 33,154 52,090 248,038 65,116 3,927 402,325 16,241 59,756 3,210 94,170 1,829 175,206 2,448 2,825 9,348 121,910 923 137,453 12,297 182 18,758 10,415 69,398 111,050 2,142 1,304 18,222 66,284 15,415 103,367 3,974 177 1,301 56,551 24,547 86,549 4,719 49 140 47,693 27,533 80,134 1,395 167 3,540 12,702 983 18,787 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 35

... 4,500kcal/kg,.,,,... 2012 2~3% (Renewable Portfolio Standard: RPS)., -, / (co-firing) BAT(Best Available Technology). 8~10, 36

.,. - 3 (, 2008).. (2008) 2005 2,354 MT. 4,650kcal/kg 1,094,610TOE. $94/MT 226,593., 7~10% 0.3~1% (Hughes, 2000). 10%.. 1/100, 1/5 (Hughes, 2000). 10% 235,400MT, 109,461TOE 22,659 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 37

. 2005 3,614,988 0.6%. CGE 22,659,.. / /. (2005), 96,911.2TOE, 111,230TOE, 8,249TOE 1).. 216,390TOE 2005,,, 468. (, 2007). 1,134TOE, 525. 1),,, 10107kcal/. 38

217,524TOE, 75,377 < 2-12>. 1,658,345 5%. < 표 2-15> 농업용석탄및석유류에너지수요 ( : TOE) 96,911 0 0 96,911 111,230 8,249 1,134 120,613 208,141 8,249 1,134 217,524 : 2005. 2005. 283,029, 106,093. 2005 715, 10,107kcal/ 399,998 TOE. $94/MT, 1024 1,102,164 MT, 6,200kcal/kg 683,342 TOE. 50% 199,998TOE, 341,671 TOE. 제 2 장목질계바이오매스시장잠재력분석 39

. 868,655TOE < 2-13>. 1,335,180TOE. < 표 2-16> 부문별바이오매스대체잠재량 ( : TOE) 1,094,610 0 1,094,610 109,461 96,911 120,613 217,524 217,524 683,342 399,998 1,083,339 541,670 1,874,863 520,610 2,395,473 868,655 292,598 < 2-14>.. < 표 2-17> 부문별바이오매스대체수요액 ( : ) 226,593 0 226,593 22,659 20,061 55,316 75,377 75,377 106,093 283,029 389,122 194,561 352,748 338,345 691,093 292,598 40

. CGE, CGE. (2003) CGE,,,. (2006) CGE,. CGE Rana(2003).,, CGE (Second Generation Model: SGM). Kancs(2002) CGE 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 41

-. CGE GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).,. Kancs(2002). Ignaciuk and Dellink(2006) (multi-product crops),. 2-3%. 5%, 5%. 25 ha.. CGE i ( ) ( ) ( ). ( ) ( ), ( ) 42

(Armington composite commodity)( ) ( ) ( ), ( ), ( ). < 3-1>. [ 그림 3-1] 생산과무역부문흐름도. < 3-1> < 3-2> < 3-3> < 3-1>,,,, < 3-2>. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 43

(absorption), < 3-3>.,. ( ) - ( ) ( ). - - ( ) ( ). - ( ) ( ). - CES ( ) ( ) < 3-2>. (RPS). d.. /. 44

. [ 그림 3-2] 전력부문의생산구조 ( ) - ( ) ( ). - - ( ) ( ). ( ) (NEsteam). CES - - ( ) ( ) 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 45

. - - ( ) - ( ) < 3-2>.,,. < 3-3>. [ 그림 3-3] 스팀부문의생산구조 46

( ) - ( ) ( ). - - ( ) ( ). ( ) (NEAGR). CES - - ( ) ( ). - - ( ) - ( ) < 3-4>..,.. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 47

[ 그림 3-4] 농업부문의생산구조 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ). ( 3-1) i ( ) ( ). ( 3-2) ( ) ( ). 48

( 3-3) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ). ( 3-4), -.,.., d,.,,.,,,. (external shock) 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 49

(Laspeyres Price Index: LPI) (, 1989). < 2-60> < 2-16>,. 0 1. (Compensating Variation). (Freeman III, 1999). (lump-sum payment).. -, 1., (Marshallian demand function). 50

E X P < 2-61>, V(P, Y). E X P < 2-62> E X P < 2-19> ( E X P ) (money metric indirect utility function), M(P,V), (V). < 2-63> (CV). E X P < 2-64> E X P. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 51

EX P EX P < 2-65>. EX P E X P E X P E X P E X P < 2-66> E X P EX P E X P. CGE (benchmark solution) 2005 (, 2009), (2009). 168 20. (AGR), (WOOD), 52

(COAL), (OIL), (LNG), (MINE), (FOOD), (CLOTHE), (PULP), (CHEMICAL), (METAL AND CERAMIC), (MACHINE), (ELECTRICITY), (TOWNGAS), (STEAM), (CONSTRUCTION), (SALES), (TRANSPORT), (COMMUNICATE), (SERVICE). (WAGE), (CAPITAL), (PRODUCTION TAX), (SUBSIDY) (PRIVATE DEMAND), (GOV DEMAND), (INVEST DEMAND), (EXPORT), (IMPORT), (TARIFF), (EXCISE TAX). ( ),... (1,169 )... 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 53

.,.,. 0.,. (-), (+)..,. (-) 0, (Rutherford and Paltsev, 1999). 0.. GAMS(General Algebraic Modeling System) CONOPT Solver.. 1,217, 466, 120, 256, 343 < 3-1>. 54

,.,,.,.,,,,,. < 표 3-1> 중간투입수요와최종수요 ( : ) 33,400 12,978 0 880 483 2,088 276 1,169 307 61 7,979 71 0-74 10 82,473 13,183 0-37 15,863 10,048 0 0 42 0 8,618 5 0 34 56 37,242 41,947 0 346 3,359 18,975 18,753 0 276 14,000 27,671 745 0 74 2,458 145,702 7,842 0 716 37,800 190,998 1,216 0 1,766 26,134 223,130 34,103 0 74,574 190,113 21,934 5,532 0 0 57 8,203 5,027 0 0 5 1,530 538 0 0 0 12,348 1,095 0 140,688 151 75,006 75,660 0 5,674 13,400 47,862 18,385 0 326 25,545 28,690 21,069 0 0 858 233,004 207,216 118,841 30,061 12,973 1,216,901 465,640 120,010 255,653 343,325 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 55

321, 6.4, 5.3,,, 2,402, 2,069 < 3-2>.,,,,,. < 표 3-2> 수입수요, 최종수요합및총공급 ( : ) 5,598 530 8 47,740 41,604 882 13 1 3,902 3,007 5,586 7 0 7,986 2,394 49,795 303 1,056 111,481 60,327 8,866 81 971 10,090 173 5,921 15 1 8,713 2,775 8,960 1,230 556 82,894 72,148 9,476 624 452 52,004 41,452 4,286 93 40 30,949 26,529 37,540 987 283 192,059 153,249 34,965 537 83 220,114 184,529 100,862 2,008 1,875 521,920 417,174 38 0 0 27,523 27,485 42 0 0 13,234 13,192 5 0 0 2,068 2,063 59 0 0 154,283 154,224 6,747 0 0 169,739 162,992 13,382 0 0 92,119 78,736 1,548 0 0 50,617 49,068 26,322 8 2 602,096 575,764 320,881 6,436 5,330 2,401,530 2,068,883 56

397, 370, 88, 2.9, 852 < 3-3>.,,,.,,,.,,,. (GDP) (earning). (C), (I), (G), (E) (M). (LY), (CY), (T) (S). 852 d. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 57

< 표 3-3> 노동소득, 자본소득, 제세금및총부가가치 ( : ) 2,577 20,831 442-1 23,850 131 2,355 148 0 2,633 278 0 5-240 43 918 2,759 17,834 0 21,511 5 139 1 0 145 516 1,053 14 0 1,582 5,501 5,470 9,750-3 20,718 7,057 3,649 1,879-8 12,577 4,206 3,373 742-6 8,314 14,295 16,865 2,240-5 33,395 17,969 25,127 677-6 43,767 52,462 42,011 8,024-26 102,470 2,629 9,840 851 0 13,320 640 1,554 495 0 2,689 179 571 53 0 804 42,159 17,195 11,070-144 70,281 38,338 41,901 5,916-103 86,051 18,082 16,383 1,390-2,130 33,725 8,678 13,267 1,969-1 23,914 180,453 145,405 24,603-268 350,193 397,073 369,747 88,103-2,941 851,982. (Calibration), (shift parameter),.. 58

GTAP(Ver.5) (2001). 1.4.,, 1.4. 0.4, 1.9. < 표 3-4> 아밍톤대체탄력성 0.5 1.4, 1.4 0.4 1.9 0.4 (2003). 26. 0.729.,, 0.31., 3.476. 0.85, 77,,,,,, 13 (64 ) 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 59

26, 1.04.. 1) 2).. 1 1.86TCO 2. TOE 1TOE 4TCO 2, TOE 2.78TCO 2, 2.1TCO 2, ( ) 0.84TCO 2 (, 2008). 1.4, 1.9, 4.8.. (, 2009). 60

,,,.,,. 1989 2008 52,200, 2012 2. 2001~2008 12,840. LNG 17%. 20 6 5.,. d. 7%, 2005 1 9 (, 2007)... 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 61

. 1985. 1985 69% 2005 76.2%, 3.7%.,,. 2008 92. 2000. LNG < 1>. [ 그림 3-5] 심야전기가격과심야전기소비추세 :,, 2006 62

. (100.8%) (95.8%) (62.9%) 2009 7.5%.. 35% 43%. 1 98%...., 2005 240,153, 0, 7. 1. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 63

2,,. (product charge) 2),... CGE (= ). 2) (emission charge), (product charge), (ambient charge), (non-compliance fee)... (Hanley et al, 1997). 64

.,. 1990 298 TCO 2. IMF 1997 1998 2005 590 TCO 2, 2006 599 TCO 2. 16 2.. 1990 248 TCO 2 2005 498.5 TCO 2, 2006 505 TCO 2. 1990 83% 2005 2006 84%. 2006 10.6%, 2.5%, 2.6%. [ 그림 3-6] 연도별온실가스총배출량과에너지부문배출량비교 백만 tco2 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 총배출량 453.2 530.0 531.0 434.6 438.5 590.4 599.5 594.4 에너지 498.5 505.4 489.0 300.0 298.1 372.1 200.0 100.0 0.0 247.7 산업공정 47.1 58.9 58.3 68.5 19.9 64.8 63.7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 65

, CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC s, PFC s, SF 6, 88%. < 표 3-5> 온실가스원별연도별배출량 ( : TCO2) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CO 2 466 482 503 512 518 525 532 CH 4 28 28 28 27 27 25 25 N 2 O 14 14 14 17 20 18 16 HFC s 8 6 9 6 6 6 6 PFC s 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 SF 6 12 19 16 17 16 17 18 531 550 571 583 590 594 600 6. 2005 5 TCO 2, 65 TCO 2, 16 TCO 2, -32 TCO 2, 15 TCO 2.. < 표 3-6> 연도별부문별온실가스배출추이 ( : TCO ) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 438 453 473 481 489 499 505 58 64 64 68 68 65 64 / 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 / -37-35 -33-34 -31-32 -31 17 18 17 17 16 15 15 531 550 571 583 590 594 600 494 516 538 549 559 562 568 66

,,, LPG,, LNG.,, LPG,,. 2005 211 TCO 2, 209 TCO 2, 71 TCO 2. < 표 3-7> 에너지부문의연도별원별온실가스배출량 ( : TCO ) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 12 15 16 18 17 19 21 152 161 173 178 187 192 197 178 176 174 172 160 156 151 LPG 20 21 22 21 21 22 22 25 25 27 28 29 30 32 LNG 44 49 54 57 66 71 75 432 446 466 474 481 491 497,, LNG. 499 TCO 2, 491 TCO 2.,. 586 TCO 2, 554 TCO 2. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 67

< 표 3-8> 본모형에서적용한온실가스배출기준값 ( : TCO ) 211 209 LNG 71 491 80 / 16 / -32 586 554 68

. 1: 2005 2,402,,. (domestic sales), (absorption), (output),,..,.,. 6%, 14%,. -1.67%.,.,,,.. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 69

< 표 3-9> 시나리오 1: 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스보조금정책의 산출및무역효과 Sector Domestic Sales Absorption Output Export Import AGR -0.14-0.15-0.13 0-0.23 WOOD 3.99 2.94 4.14 10.72-0.38 COAL -5.84-1.67-5.87-14.04 0.23 OIL -0.21-0.22-0.2-0.18-0.23 LNG -0.17-0.27-0.17-0.02-0.27 MINE -0.27-0.3-0.27-0.23-0.31 FOOD -0.17-0.18-0.16-0.08-0.23 CLOTH -0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.26 PULP -0.19-0.21-0.16 0.06-0.35 CHEMICAL -0.23-0.23-0.22-0.2-0.25 METAL -0.3-0.29-0.31-0.36-0.26 MACHINE -0.26-0.26-0.26-0.26-0.27 ELEC -0.33-0.33-0.33-0.59-0.15 TOWNGAS -0.27-0.27-0.27-0.25-0.28 STEAM -0.03-0.03-0.03 0.45-0.36 CONSTRUCT -0.3-0.3-0.3-0.32-0.29 SALES -0.22-0.23-0.22-0.18-0.25 TRANS -0.24-0.24-0.23-0.21-0.26 COMM -0.22-0.23-0.22-0.19-0.25 SERV -0.24-0.24-0.24-0.23-0.25 (%),.,...,,. 70

, -5.87%.. -1.67%...,. < 표 3-10> 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스보조금정책의요소수요및 Sector Labor demand 중간재투입효과 Capital demand Value-added Intermediate demand AGR -0.52-0.09-0.34-0.17 WOOD 3.71 4.16 3.89-0.04 COAL -5.87 0-5.71-1.67 OIL -0.53-0.09-0.35-0.22 LNG -0.59-0.15-0.41-0.27 MINE -0.57-0.13-0.39-0.3 FOOD -0.38 0.06-0.2-0.2 CLOTH -0.4 0.03-0.22-0.25 PULP -0.36 0.08-0.18-0.22 CHEMICAL -0.45-0.02-0.28-0.23 METAL -0.56-0.12-0.38-0.29 MACHINE -0.45-0.02-0.27-0.26 ELEC -0.68-0.24-0.5-0.26 TOWNGAS -0.57-0.14-0.4-0.28 STEAM -0.36 0.07-0.18-0.18 CONSTRUCT -0.43 0.01-0.25-0.25 SALES -0.45-0.01-0.27-0.24 TRANS -0.44 0-0.26-0.25 COMM -0.49-0.05-0.31-0.23 SERV -0.44 0-0.26-0.25 (%) 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 71

6.5%,.. (output tax) 6.6%, 4.26%.,..,.... 72

< 표 3-11> 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스보조금정책의정부부문에미치는효과 Sector Government demand Output taxes Import taxes Subsidy AGR - -0.31-0.23-0.31 WOOD 6.5-4.26-0.38 - COAL - 6.6 0.23-100 OIL - -0.24-0.23 - LNG - -0.37-0.27 - MINE - -0.34-0.31-0.34 FOOD - -0.28-0.23-0.28 CLOTH - -0.26-0.26-0.26 PULP - -0.47-0.35-0.47 CHEMICAL - -0.25-0.25-0.25 METAL - -0.24-0.26-0.24 MACHINE - -0.26-0.27-0.26 ELEC - 0.03-0.03 TOWNGAS - -0.29 - - STEAM - -0.69 - -0.69 CONSTRUCT - -0.27 - -0.27 SALES - -0.27 - -0.27 TRANS - -0.26 - -0.26 COMM - -0.28 - -0.28 SERV -0.24-0.26-0.25-0.26 (%) 1, 0.26%, 1 6. (benchmark solution). 2005. 2005 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 73

, 1. 1 12.4 TCO 2, 0.42 TCO 2, LNG 0.12 TCO 2, 12.92 TCO 2. 0.18 TCO 2, 0.02 TCO 2, 1.32 TCO 2. 13.13 TCO 2, 2.22, 1 17. 8. < 표 3-12> 시나리오1의온실가스배출저감량과저감비용 ( : TCO ) 211.00-12.39 208.62-0.42 LNG 70.95-0.12 490.57-12.92 79.76-0.18 / 16.12-0.02 / -31.96-1.32 586.44-13.13 GDP ( ) 2.22 GDP ( /TCO2) 168,700 ( ) -1.06 ( /TCO2) 80,680 74

. 2: 2,402,.,,, 1.. 1.. 1,.,,, 1.. 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 75

< 표 3-13> 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스공공수요확대정책이산출 및무역에미치는효과 Sector Domestic Sales Absorption Output Export Import AGR -0.29-0.3-0.29-0.11-0.41 WOOD 5.96 5.92 5.97 6.22 5.78 COAL -6.02-1.84-6.05-14.21 0.05 OIL -0.37-0.38-0.35-0.32-0.4 LNG -0.26-0.43-0.26-0.01-0.44 MINE -0.46-0.5-0.46-0.37-0.52 FOOD -0.34-0.34-0.33-0.24-0.4 CLOTH -0.43-0.43-0.43-0.43-0.43 PULP -0.4-0.41-0.4-0.38-0.42 CHEMICAL -0.39-0.4-0.38-0.34-0.42 METAL -0.51-0.5-0.51-0.54-0.48 MACHINE -0.46-0.46-0.44-0.42-0.48 ELEC -0.5-0.5-0.5-0.75-0.32 TOWNGAS -0.43-0.43-0.43-0.4-0.46 STEAM -0.39-0.39-0.39-0.37-0.41 CONSTRUCT -0.59-0.59-0.59-0.61-0.57 SALES -0.39-0.39-0.38-0.33-0.43 TRANS -0.4-0.41-0.39-0.35-0.43 COMM -0.36-0.37-0.36-0.29-0.41 SERV -0.36-0.36-0.36-0.33-0.38 (%), 1.,.,,.. 76

< 표 3-14> 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스공공수요확대정책이요소수요및 중간재투입수요에미치는효과 Sector Labor Capital Intermediate Value-added demand demand demand AGR -0.93-0.21-0.64-0.33 WOOD 5.24 6.01 5.55-0.19 COAL -6.05-0.17-5.78-1.84 OIL -0.9-0.24-0.61-0.38 LNG -0.96-0.22-0.67-0.43 MINE -0.94 0.03-0.66-0.5 FOOD -0.69 0.05-0.4-0.35 CLOTH -0.68 0-0.39-0.42 PULP -0.72-0.05-0.44-0.41 CHEMICAL -0.77-0.21-0.48-0.4 METAL -0.93-0.04-0.64-0.5 MACHINE -0.76-0.35-0.48-0.44 ELEC -1.07-0.22-0.78-0.42 TOWNGAS -0.94-0.22-0.66-0.45 STEAM -0.94-0.08-0.65-0.38 CONSTRUCT -0.8-0.04-0.51-0.38 SALES -0.76-0.01-0.47-0.4 TRANS -0.73-0.08-0.44-0.41 COMM -0.8 0.04-0.51-0.38 SERV -0.68 0-0.39-0.4 (%) 20%, -0.15%. 5.6%,..,... 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 77

< 표 3-15> 석탄보조금철폐및바이오매스공공수요확대정책이요소수요 및중간재투입수요에미치는효과 (%) Sector Government demand Output taxes Import taxes Subsidy AGR - -0.52-0.41-0.52 WOOD 19.92 5.62 5.78 - COAL - 6.43 0.05-100 OIL - -0.4-0.4 - LNG - -0.61-0.44 - MINE - -0.58-0.52-0.58 FOOD - -0.45-0.4-0.45 CLOTH - -0.43-0.43-0.43 PULP - -0.44-0.42-0.44 CHEMICAL - -0.43-0.42-0.43 METAL - -0.47-0.48-0.47 MACHINE - -0.47-0.48-0.47 ELEC - -0.15 - -0.15 TOWNGAS - -0.48 - - STEAM - -0.42 - -0.42 CONSTRUCT - -0.56 - -0.56 SALES - -0.45 - -0.45 TRANS - -0.43 - -0.43 COMM - -0.46 - -0.46 SERV -0.15-0.39-0.38-0.39 2 0.44%, 1, 1 8 4 1.. 78

, 12.77 TCO 2, 0.73 TCO 2, 0.18 TCO 2 13.68 TCO 2. 0.34 TCO 2, 0.05 TCO 2, 1.91 T CO 2 14.06 TCO 2. 1 1 TCO 2. GDP 3.75 27, 13. 1 2. < 표 3-16> 시나리오 2 에서의온실가스저감량과저감비용 ( : TCO ) 2 211.00-12.77 208.62-0.73 LNG 70.95-0.18 490.57-13.68 79.76-0.34 / 16.12-0.05 / -31.96-1.91 586.44-14.06 GDP ( ) -3.75 GDP ( /TCO2) -266,500 ( ) -1.84 ( /TCO2) 130,890 제 3 장 CGE 모형의구축및운용 79

...,..,.., 80

,.,,,,. 2 4,, 4.14%, 10%, 5.87%, 14%..,. 0.26%, 1 6. 13.13 TCO 2, 17, 8.,, 1 5.97%, 6.05%. 1 제 4 장결론 81

1 5.78%..,., 0.44%, 1 8 1. 14.06 TCO 2 1. 27, 13, 1 1.6. 2008 8 15.,,.,. 82

,,...,.,.,. 제 4 장결론 83

(2009),, 09-02 (2007), :, 1 12, 2008,,, 2008,, (2006), d :, 17 2 84

참고문헌 85

< >,, 2008,, 2008 < >,, 4 2, 2005,, 2006 바이오에너지산업육성을통한 FTA 대응전략연구 : - 목질계바이오매스보급확대의온실가스저감가치추정 - *.