에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 1~26 실물옵션을이용한해상풍력실증단지 사업의경제성평가 1

ln ln 7

[ 그림 1] 해상풍력단지건설로드맵 10

< 표 1> 회귀분석결과 14

< 표 2> 미래현금흐름추정결과 < 표 3> NPV 계산을위한위한변수값 15

< 표 4> NPV법을활용한경제성분석결과 16

< 표 5> SMP 단위근검정결과 18

< 표 6> SMP 확률과정 (GBM) 추정결과 19

< 표 7> 옵션가격도출을위한변수들의값 < 표 8> 실물옵션을이용한해상풍력실증단지사업의가치 20

접수일 (2012 년 7 월 10 일 ), 게재확정일 (2012 년 8 월 14 일 ) 23

. 2011... 2. 1. pp.37~43.. 2011.. KBR. 15 2.. 2010.... 2000. KOSPI200. 8. pp.1~26.. 2006. R&D... 2009.... 2005... 54. 4. pp.173~199. 2007... 9. 4. pp 763-779. 2011... 2003... 12 2. pp.217~224.. 2011. CO : CCS RPS.. 20. 1. pp.61~98.. 2009.. 5. 2010-490. 2003... 24

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ABSTRACT Although wind power has economic dominance over other renewable energy sources, onshore wind farm has some problems such as noise, land lease and unstability of both wind direction and intensity. Offshore wind farm can reduce these problems, leading to recently attracting attentions both domestically and internationally. This study conducts economic evaluation for the Step 1 Test Bed Construction Project outlined in the Southwestern Offshore Wind Plan published in November 2011. Considering the high uncertainty surrounding the offshore wind power, we adopt the real option method as evaluating method. The project is evaluated as having about the profit of 1,000 billion won including the growth option value of about 830 billion won. This result of high option value implies a cautious decision process is required for the project. Key Words : Offshore wind power, Option to grow, Real option JEL Codes : Q21, Q42 26