출장보고서 전환기의중국경제와한국의대응 2015. 9.
목 차 Ⅰ. 출장개요 3 Ⅱ. 출장일정 4 Ⅲ. 주요출장내용 5 1. 상해사회과학원과의 MOU 체결및정책세미나개회 5 2. 중국경제현황및한국의대응방안에대한조사 5 Ⅳ. 전환기의중국경제와한국의대응 6 1. 중국경제의현황과구조적문제 6 2. 중국의정책대응 12 3. 전환기의중국경제에대한한국의대응 18 < 부록 1: 인터뷰요약 > 21 1. 상해자유무역시험구관리위원회 22 2. 아모레퍼시픽 25 3. 대우인터네셔날 27 4. K D I-S A S S 정책세미나 29 1 F in a n c ia l L ib e ra liz a tio n a n d C rise s: L e sso n s fro m K o re a n E x p e rie n c e s 29 2 G lo b a l V a lu e C h a in a n d Im p lica tio n s o n th e K o re a n E c o n o m y 33 5. 오로사 /B.I.G 인터뷰 35 6. R a y co p 36 7. 상해미래에셋법인 37 < 부록 2: 상해사회과학원과의 MOU> 40
Ⅰ. 출장개요 - 10% (new normal) 2015 7% ( : IMF 6.8%), - 2 (, One belt One Road) (AIIB) - -, MOU,, ( ) -, - 3 -
- ( ), ( ) ( ) KDI,,,,,, : 2015 8 25 ( )~28 ( ) (4 )* * 8 25 ( )~27 ( ) 27 2 1 1 Ⅱ. 출장일정 < > Prof. Lee, Jinsoo -Financial Liberalization Policy and its Lesson in Korea Dr. Chung, Sunghoon - Global Value Chain and Implications on the Korean Economy SASS 2 Q&A - 4 -
Ⅲ. 주요출장내용 1. 상해사회과학원과의 MOU 체결및정책세미나개최 SASS KDI MOU, Yu Xinhui( ) (SASS 2 ) VIP MOU (U. Pen. Global Think Tank ) Think-Tank KDI MOU WANG Zhen 2 - KDI Financial Liberalization Policy and its Lesson in Korea Global Value Chain and Implications on the Korean Economy - SASS ZHOU Yu SHEN Yuliang Regional Expansion Path of RMB Internationalization Functional Orientation of FTZ and Trade Facilitation Promotion with the Consideration of Global Value Chain - SASS GVC 2. 중국경제현황및한국의대응방안에대한조사 SASS, -,,,, - 10, - 5 -
Ⅳ. 전환기의중국경제와한국의대응 1. 중국경제의현황과구조적문제 가. 경제현황 1 경제성장률둔화 1979 1979 2014 9.7%, 2007 (14%) 7% - IMF 2015 6.8% 5% [ 그림 1] 경제성장률추이 (%) 16 14 12 10 9.7 8 6.8 e) 6 4 2 0 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 : National Bureau of Statistics of China 2 수출둔화 - 6 -
2000 2008 25% 40 2014 6.1% 2012 (7.9%) 2015 [ 2] (%) 30 20 25% 31.3 20.3 10 7.9 7.8 6.1 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-10 -20 : National Bureau of Statistics of China -16 3 금융시장불안 2014 (3 8,430 ) 2000 6 37.9% 8 11 5% [ 3] [ 6] - 7 -
: National Bureau of Statistics of China 4 경상수지흑자지속및물가안정 2008 4,206 2014 2,197 2011 5.4% 2% [ 5] [ 6] 나. 중국경제의구조적문제점 1 정부및투자주도경제성장 - 8 -
4 70, 80 90 - GDP 40% [ 7] GDP, M2 [ 8] GDP 2 경제의비효율성야기 (SOEs, State owned enterprises),, -, -,,, - 9 -
- 1.08% (ever-greening) [ 9] [ 10] (overcapacity) -,,, - 10 -
- 2014 80% 2001 2007-2001 WTO - [ 11] [ 12] (%) 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 : OECD, 2015 : The Conference Board, Financial Times, 2015.9.3 2. 중국의정책대응 (invest-driven)
(market mechanism) (innovation-driven),, 2013 11 12 18 3 (3 ) (The Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensive and Far-Reaching Reforms) 가. 상해자유무역시험구 (Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone), ( ) 1 정부의역할변화,,, 2 투자영역의개방,,,,,, 3 신개념무역중심지로서발전도모,,,, - 12 -
,,,,,, 4 금융개방확대,, 5 법제도개선,, 나. 금융개혁,,, 1 금리자유화 2013 2013, * * : 1.1 (2012.6), 1.2 (2014.11), 1.3 (2015.3) - 2 (2016 ) - 13 -
(2014.7 ) -,, (2014 ), 2 환율제도개혁 * * (1949~52 ), (1953~72, ), (1973~80 ), (1981~84, ), (1985~87 ), (1988~93, ), (1994~2005.7, ) ( ) 3 금융시장개방 ( ) *, * 2013 5 65.6 (151.4 ) 43.3% 2.6 1.7% ( ) - 14 -
( ), (PICC), (1992 ) (2004.12) (5~10 ) 4 위안화국제화, * *,, ( ), ( ),, ( ) ( ) ( ),, ( ) ( ) (reserve assets) (currency swap),, (reserve currency) 10, 20~30 다. 제조업경쟁력강화방안추진,,,, - 15 -
30 3 2025(2015.5 ) 1 (2015~25 ) : * * 2013.10 3 1, 2,, 3-2020 IT - 2025 IT 2 (2025~35 ) : - 3 (2035~45 ) : - 2025 (Re-industrialization), 4.0,, 3.0 9 10 9 -, IT,,,, 10,,, 10 - IT,,,,,,,,, - 16 -
,,,, 5 ( ),,, - R&D, R&D, 2020 15, 2025 40 ( ) -, 2020 30%, 2025 50% ( ) ( ),, - 2020 40%, 2025 70% ( ),,,,,,, - 2020 R&D 2025, ( ),,,, - 2020 1,000 100 20% 2025 3. 전환기의중국경제에대한한국의대응 가. 중국의개혁정책에대한전망 - 17 -
- 나. 한국의대응 1 제조업의고기술전략추진,,,, - 18 -
-, - M&A 2 철저한현지화노력 *, 10 * 10 47%, 2013 3,387 ** 2013 QP, 3 7 AUM SICAV ( 6 7 27 ) 3 중국기업환경정보집적및중소 중견기업앞에제공 Raycop ( 80%, ) -, 5%, - 19 -
- - 20 -
< 부록 1: 인터뷰요약 > 1. 상해자유무역시험구관리위원회 2. 아모레퍼시픽 3. 대우인터네셔날 4. KDI-SASS 정책세미나 1 Financial Liberalization and Crises: Lessons from Korean Experiences 2 Global Value Chain and Implications on the Korean Economy 5. 오로사 /B.I.G 인터뷰 6. Raycop 7. 상해미래에셋법인 - 21 -
1. 상해자유무역시험구관리위원회 1. 개요 : 8. 26( ) Interviewee : Huang Jianfeng, Zheng Haiao (China Pilot Free Trade Zone Administration) Interviewer :,,,,,, 2. 인터뷰내용 China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone 2013 9 29 1) 1. -,,,, 2. - benchmark. - 3. -, negative list. negative list,. 1) China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone 에대한개략적인개혁내용은 sh_pftz_paper_nov2014.pdf 에수록되어있음. - 22 -
- 4., -, -. 3. 우리경제에주는시사점 China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Pilot Global,, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Free Trade Zone(SEZ: Special Economic Zone) (FDI),. - ( ), ( ) - 2-3 Pilot Free Trade Zone 60 - Pilot ( ) - - 23 -
Free Trade Zone Pilot Free Trade Zone,, Free Trade Zone - 24 -
2. 아모레퍼시픽 1. 개요 : 15. 8. 26( ) Interviewer :,,,,,, Interviewee : 2. 면담내용 14 30.4,. - Mass',,. -,. (, ),, (FSS),. Top Player, Local Player 70 No. 1, 1 30 13 4. - 92,, 97-25 -
03. -,. - 4 20 12, 80% 50%, 30% 1992,, 2000, 2002. - 10 47%, 2013 3,387. - 2014 10,,. - 1,211 3,314 Point of Sales. Top 4 Beauty Company 2020,,,. - 26 -
3. 대우인터네셔널 1. 개요 : 8. 26( ) Interviewee :,, (Daewoo International, Vice General Manager) Interviewer :,,,,,, 2. 인터뷰내용 10. -, 2010 3. -,.,,,. - ( )..,. -... -.. - 27 -
- 3. 우리경제에주는시사점. -. - 1 Arcelor Mittal.. - 28 -
4. KDI-SASS 정책세미나 1 Financial Liberalization and Crises: Lessons from Korean Experiences Ⅰ. 개요 1997~1998 2008~2009 Ⅱ. 한국의외환위기와정책적대응 (1997~1998 년 ) 1990 1992-3%, 10% 1993 1994 OECD 1994 1992 243 113 (46.5%) 1996 610 390 (63.9%) 1992 185 1996 390-29 -
1992 185, 171 / 108.2% 1996 610, 332 / 183.7% 1992 113, 185 298 ( 174.3%) 1996 392, 390 782 ( 200.5%) 1990 1997, (non-performing loan) (roll-over) / 1997 6 ~11 122, 70 1997 11 70 / 1997 10 11 / 1997 11 21 IMF Ⅲ. 세계적인금융위기와한국정부의정책적대응 (2008~2009 년 ) 2008~2009-30 -
2008 4/4 426 2007 2,618 1.6 2008 10 ~2009 2 550 ( 210, 340 ) 1,000 3 (2008 10 ) 300 (2008 10 ) 1997 / (credit default swap) 600bp 400bp 2009 Ⅳ. 정책적시사점 1997~1998-31 -
1997~1998 2008~2009 / (hard currency) - 32 -
4. KDI-SASS 정책세미나 2 Global Value Chain and Implications on the Korean Economy 1. 개요 : 8. 25( ) : 2. 발표내용 GVC :.. 1/4.. -.,. GVC -. -.. GVC? - offshoring - -. - ( ). - 33 -
- Offshoring,,,. -. 3. 토론 China Inside,.. - China Inside... GVC. - GVC.. joint R&D GVC. - 34 -
5. 오로사 / B.I.G 인터뷰 1. 개요 : 8. 26( ) Interviewee :, B.I.G. Interviewer : 2. 인터뷰내용. B.I.G. -. -,. -.. -.. B.I.G -. -, BIG - 35 -
6. Raycop 1. 개요 : 8. 26( ) 7 Interviewee : Jason Cho, Raycop Vice General Manager 2. 인터뷰내용 Raycop Raycop 2014-1,800, ( 80%, ) -, 5% marketing - -,, IT -, - - 36 -
7. 상해미래에셋법인 1. 개요 : 8. 27( ) 10 Interviewee : 2. 인터뷰내용 2013 QP - * outsourcing marketing - 3 7 AUM, SICAV ( 6 7 27 ) - 2 5 B - - 90%, 400 - asset pricing - 37 -
: - 20%, 19.9%, 33%, 49%, 50% ( ), - GDP 160% - 4 53% - IT mobile - - - top management -, 3. 중국에대한시사점 - 38 -
RMB - 39 -
< 부록 2: 상해사회과학원 (SASS) 양해각서체결 > 1. 상해사회과학원 (SASS) 양해각서체결 1. 개요 : 15. 8. 25( ) : (SASS)- (KDI) SASS : Yu Xinhui, Wang Zhen, Yao Qinhua, Xu Mingqi, Jin Fang, Zhou Yu, Shen Yuliang, Sun Lixing, Wu Xueming, Liu Aming KDI :,,,,,, 2. 행사내용 KDI - ( :,, ) -, - 2004,. MoU. Yu Xinhui, -,,. - 40 -
KDI - TTCSP 9, 1,. -,. -,,,, FTA,.,. KDI - 1958,. -,. KDI KDI - KDI 1971,. - KDI, Graduate School of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences - KDI SASS. - 41 -
3. 행사사진 사전환담 양해각서체결식 - 42 -
4. 양해각서서명본 - 43 -