에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 18, Number 1, March 2019 : pp. 1 31 에너지전환정책및고령화가국민경제에미치는영향 : 확률적중첩세대일반균형모형 (Stochastic Overlapping General Equilibrium Model) 을이용한분석 1
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exp if and if β ν 8
max and 9
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and 상품시장의균형은다음과같은식으로청산된다. 13
< 표 1> 모수설정 14
< 표 2> 기술진보율및소비여가대체탄력성모수설정 15
< 표 3> 연령별소득분포분산 < 표 4> 세대별전력소비비율모수설정 16
< 표 5> 세대별전력소비량 17
< 표 6> 세대별전력소비비율 18
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< 그림 1> 전기요금상승시나리오에의한소비및자산변화율 20
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< 그림 2> 전기요금상승시나리오에의한노동량및노동소득변화율 22
< 그림 3> 전기요금상승과고령화에의한소비및자산의변화 23
< 그림 4> 에너지전환정책과고령화에의한노동량및노동소득의변화 24
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ABSTRACT This study analyzed the effects on the national economy by using the Stochastic Overlapping General Equilibrium Model when energy conversion policy and demographic change such as aging occurred at the same time. The scenario used was based on the result of the energy conversion policy and the result of 20%, 50% and 100% increase in electricity rates. As a result, energy conversion policies reduce disposable income after retirement, especially at age 75, consumption by scenarios drops by 4%, 5.8% and 8%, respectively. Labor-enabled households are more likely to save more than spend in many households as a measure against reduced disposable income after retirement. This shows that consumption is decreasing as age increases, while the rate of asset reduction decreases as age increases from 30 to 60 in each scenario. As a result, it can be seen that the energy conversion policy has a greater impact on the elderly than the working age group. Key Words:Stochastic overlapping generation equilibrium model, Aging, Energy conversion policy 31